Live Election Night Forecast

This is how election night went in 2020. We've stopped updating it, but may include state calls as they come.
Use the History area on the left to look at what the forecast showed at specific times in the evening.
Check out the States section to see state level polling errors and swings from 2016.
You can also checkout our Pollsters area to see how different pollsters did in 2020. Last Updated 12/1 2:09 PM EST


Biden
Trump
Biden
Trump
270
|
|
|
|
|
306
Electoral Votes
232
Electoral Votes
100% Chance of Winning

History

5:50 PM 6:24 PM 6:36 PM 6:48 PM 6:58 PM 7:09 PM 7:14 PM 7:19 PM 7:24 PM 7:29 PM 7:34 PM 7:39 PM 7:44 PM 7:49 PM 7:54 PM 7:59 PM 8:04 PM 8:09 PM 8:14 PM 8:19 PM 8:24 PM 8:29 PM 8:34 PM 8:39 PM 8:44 PM 8:49 PM 8:54 PM 8:59 PM 9:04 PM 9:09 PM 9:14 PM 9:19 PM 9:24 PM 9:29 PM 9:34 PM 9:39 PM 9:44 PM 9:49 PM 9:54 PM 9:59 PM 10:04 PM 10:09 PM 10:14 PM 10:19 PM 10:24 PM 10:29 PM 10:34 PM 10:39 PM 10:44 PM 10:49 PM 10:54 PM 10:59 PM 11:04 PM 11:09 PM 11:14 PM 11:24 PM 11:35 PM 11:44 PM 11:54 PM 12:04 AM 12:14 AM 12:24 AM 12:30 AM 12:40 AM 12:50 AM 1:00 AM 1:06 AM 1:16 AM 1:26 AM 1:34 AM 1:44 AM 1:54 AM 2:04 AM 2:12 AM 2:22 AM 2:32 AM 2:42 AM 2:52 AM 3:02 AM 3:12 AM 3:22 AM 3:32 AM 3:42 AM 3:52 AM 4:02 AM 4:12 AM 4:22 AM 4:32 AM 4:42 AM 4:58 AM 5:08 AM 5:18 AM 5:30 AM 5:40 AM 5:50 AM 6:00 AM 6:10 AM 6:32 AM 6:38 AM 6:56 AM 7:14 AM 7:46 AM 8:12 AM 8:56 AM 9:08 AM 9:24 AM 9:46 AM 10:02 AM 10:16 AM 10:26 AM 10:38 AM 10:48 AM 11:04 AM 11:18 AM 11:28 AM 11:38 AM 11:54 AM 12:04 PM 12:14 PM 12:28 PM 12:42 PM 12:52 PM 1:04 PM 1:18 PM 1:30 PM 1:42 PM 1:56 PM 2:08 PM 2:16 PM 2:28 PM 2:38 PM 2:48 PM 3:04 PM 3:14 PM 3:24 PM 3:34 PM 3:44 PM 3:54 PM 4:06 PM 4:18 PM 4:28 PM 4:42 PM 4:52 PM 5:02 PM 5:12 PM 5:24 PM 5:34 PM 5:44 PM 5:58 PM 6:10 PM 6:22 PM 6:32 PM 6:42 PM 6:52 PM 6:58 PM 7:10 PM 7:22 PM 7:32 PM 7:44 PM 7:56 PM 8:06 PM 8:20 PM 8:34 PM 8:50 PM 9:18 PM 9:36 PM 9:56 PM 10:14 PM 10:38 PM 10:48 PM 10:58 PM 11:10 PM 11:30 PM 11:56 PM 12:26 AM 1:08 AM 5:56 AM 8:32 AM 9:00 AM 9:28 AM 9:48 AM 10:10 AM 10:24 AM 10:50 AM 11:08 AM 11:30 AM 11:44 AM 11:56 AM 12:12 PM 12:22 PM 12:38 PM 12:56 PM 1:14 PM 1:28 PM 1:52 PM 2:16 PM 2:28 PM 2:40 PM 2:56 PM 3:08 PM 3:18 PM 3:30 PM 3:42 PM 3:52 PM 4:02 PM 4:12 PM 4:22 PM 4:32 PM 4:44 PM 4:54 PM 5:04 PM 5:20 PM 5:30 PM 5:46 PM 5:56 PM 6:12 PM 6:42 PM 7:00 PM 7:16 PM 7:32 PM 7:48 PM 8:00 PM 8:24 PM 8:38 PM 9:00 PM 9:18 PM 9:58 PM 10:28 PM 10:44 PM 11:08 PM 11:52 PM 1:42 AM 6:02 AM 8:34 AM 8:52 AM 9:20 AM 9:50 AM 10:02 AM 10:26 AM 10:42 AM 10:52 AM 11:12 AM 11:34 AM 11:48 AM 12:04 PM 12:20 PM 12:32 PM 12:48 PM 1:04 PM 1:16 PM 1:28 PM 1:44 PM 1:54 PM 2:06 PM 2:18 PM 2:30 PM 2:46 PM 3:00 PM 3:12 PM 3:22 PM 3:32 PM 3:46 PM 3:56 PM 4:08 PM 4:18 PM 4:30 PM 4:40 PM 4:52 PM 5:02 PM 5:14 PM 5:24 PM 5:34 PM 5:52 PM 6:06 PM 6:16 PM 6:30 PM 6:42 PM 6:56 PM 7:16 PM 7:30 PM 7:42 PM 8:00 PM 8:12 PM 8:28 PM 8:42 PM 9:08 PM 9:36 PM 10:00 PM 10:12 PM 10:26 PM 10:28 PM 10:42 PM 12:14 AM 12:38 AM 2:46 AM 6:16 AM 9:00 AM 9:02 AM 9:04 AM 9:20 AM 9:50 AM 9:58 AM 10:00 AM 10:02 AM 10:10 AM 10:12 AM 10:20 AM 10:30 AM 10:32 AM 10:38 AM 10:40 AM 10:50 AM 10:54 AM 11:04 AM 11:24 AM 11:26 AM 11:30 AM 12:00 PM 12:06 PM 12:12 PM 12:16 PM 1:06 PM 1:16 PM 11:56 AM 11:59 AM 1:06 PM 12:00 AM 11:26 AM 5:16 PM 12:36 PM 10:51 AM 3:29 PM 1:17 PM 12:03 PM 11:46 AM 12:28 PM 9:00 PM 9:02 PM 2:56 PM 10:31 AM 9:11 AM 9:21 AM 10:26 AM 10:26 AM 10:35 AM 2:58 PM 4:33 PM 2:09 PM

The lighter states haven't been called yet, but are shaded based upon our projection.
The darker states have been called.

NE Districts
01 02 03
ME Districts
01 02

Called States

Alabama (9)
Winner
Trump
Alaska (3)
Winner
Trump
Arizona (11)
Winner
Biden
Arkansas (6)
Winner
Trump
California (55)
Winner
Biden
Colorado (9)
Winner
Biden
Connecticut (7)
Winner
Biden
Delaware (3)
Winner
Biden
Florida (29)
Winner
Trump
Georgia (16)
Winner
Biden
Hawaii (4)
Winner
Biden
Idaho (4)
Winner
Trump
Illinois (20)
Winner
Biden
Indiana (11)
Winner
Trump
Iowa (6)
Winner
Trump
Kansas (6)
Winner
Trump
Kentucky (8)
Winner
Trump
Louisiana (8)
Winner
Trump
Maine (2)
Winner
Biden
Maine CD-1 (1)
Winner
Biden
Maine CD-2 (1)
Winner
Trump
Maryland (10)
Winner
Biden
Massachusetts (11)
Winner
Biden
Michigan (16)
Winner
Biden
Minnesota (10)
Winner
Biden
Mississippi (6)
Winner
Trump
Missouri (10)
Winner
Trump
Montana (3)
Winner
Trump
Nebraska (2)
Winner
Trump
Nebraska CD-1 (1)
Winner
Trump
Nebraska CD-2 (1)
Winner
Biden
Nebraska CD-3 (1)
Winner
Trump
Nevada (6)
Winner
Biden
New Hampshire (4)
Winner
Biden
New Jersey (14)
Winner
Biden
New Mexico (5)
Winner
Biden
New York (29)
Winner
Biden
North Carolina (15)
Winner
Trump
North Dakota (3)
Winner
Trump
Ohio (18)
Winner
Trump
Oklahoma (7)
Winner
Trump
Oregon (7)
Winner
Biden
Pennsylvania (20)
Winner
Biden
Rhode Island (4)
Winner
Biden
South Carolina (9)
Winner
Trump
South Dakota (3)
Winner
Trump
Tennessee (11)
Winner
Trump
Texas (38)
Winner
Trump
Utah (6)
Winner
Trump
Vermont (3)
Winner
Biden
Virginia (13)
Winner
Biden
Washington (12)
Winner
Biden
West Virginia (5)
Winner
Trump
Wisconsin (10)
Winner
Biden
Wyoming (3)
Winner
Trump

Election Night Forecast Changes

This is how the forecast has changed throughout the evening (and days?), all times are EST.





Electoral College Votes

Biden 306
306
306
351
Trump 232
232
232
187


Electoral College Simulations

Here are all the electoral college outcomes the forecast currently projects.
It's updated each time we update the live forecast.



Popular Vote

Here's how the popular vote leader has changed throughout the night.



Updates

We'll be posting updates & interesting tidbits on @electoralpolls



Tipping Point States

Which uncalled state will decide the election?

State Projection Tipping %



States

Here's a more detailed list of all the states, their current votes, their projection, how results compared to the polls (currently), and the change from 2016 (currently).

State Votes Leader Projection % Results v. Polls Change from 2016
District of Columbia (3) 92.1%
317,323
5.4%
18,586
+86.7%
+298,737
100% 98% D+5.5% D+0.3%
Vermont (3) 66.1%
242,820
30.7%
112,704
+35.4%
+130,116
100% 100% D+1.1% D+9%
Massachusetts (11) 65.6%
2,382,202
32.1%
1,167,202
+33.5%
+1,215,000
100% 100% R+1.1% D+6.3%
Maryland (10) 65.7%
1,985,023
32.3%
976,414
+33.4%
+1,008,609
100% 97% D+4% D+7%
Hawaii (4) 63.7%
366,130
34.3%
196,864
+29.4%
+169,266
100% 100% R+1% R+2.8%
California (55) 63.5%
11,090,831
34.3%
5,989,115
+29.2%
+5,101,716
100% 100% D+1.4% R+0.9%
Maine CD-1 (1) 60%
263,358
37%
162,201
+23%
+101,157
100% 96% D+2.9% D+15.1%
Rhode Island (4) 59.4%
307,486
38.6%
199,922
+20.8%
+107,564
100% 99% R+2.6% D+5.3%
Connecticut (7) 59.2%
1,080,680
39.2%
715,291
+20%
+365,389
100% 100% R+2.8% D+6.3%
Washington (12) 58.4%
2,369,437
39%
1,584,588
+19.4%
+784,849
100% 99% R+2.3% D+3.7%
Delaware (3) 58.8%
296,268
39.8%
200,603
+19%
+95,665
100% 100% D+1.7% D+7.6%
Illinois (20) 57.5%
3,460,611
40.5%
2,437,755
+17%
+1,022,856
100% 99% D+2.7% 0%
New York (29) 57.4%
4,253,490
41.1%
3,041,899
+16.3%
+1,211,591
100% 84% R+11.5% R+6.2%
Oregon (7) 56.5%
1,340,291
40.4%
958,410
+16.1%
+381,881
100% 99% R+1.8% D+5.1%
New Jersey (14) 57.1%
2,607,331
41.2%
1,882,454
+15.9%
+724,877
100% 100% R+3.3% D+1.9%
Colorado (9) 55.4%
1,804,196
41.9%
1,364,471
+13.5%
+439,725
100% 99% D+1.3% D+8.6%
New Mexico (5) 54.3%
501,614
43.5%
401,894
+10.8%
+99,720
100% 100% R+0.7% D+2.5%
Virginia (13) 54.1%
2,413,568
44%
1,962,430
+10.1%
+451,138
100% 100% R+0.9% D+4.8%
Maine (2) 52.8%
431,277
44.1%
360,446
+8.7%
+70,831
100% 100% R+3% D+5.8%
New Hampshire (4) 52.8%
424,921
45.5%
365,654
+7.3%
+59,267
100% 100% R+1.7% D+6.9%
Minnesota (10) 52.4%
1,717,077
45.3%
1,484,065
+7.1%
+233,012
100% 100% R+1.4% D+5.6%
Nebraska CD-2 (1) 52.4%
175,800
45.5%
152,738
+6.9%
+23,062
100% 100% D+2.7% D+9.2%
Michigan (16) 50.6%
2,804,040
47.8%
2,649,852
+2.8%
+154,188
100% 100% R+4.2% D+3%
Nevada (6) 50.1%
703,486
47.7%
669,890
+2.4%
+33,596
100% 100% R+2.2% D+0.9%
Pennsylvania (20) 50%
3,459,986
48.8%
3,378,344
+1.2%
+81,642
100% 100% R+3.4% D+1.9%
Wisconsin (10) Tipping Point 49.5%
1,630,716
48.8%
1,610,151
+0.7%
+20,565
100% 100% R+6.6% D+1.4%
Arizona (11) 49.4%
1,672,143
49.1%
1,661,686
+0.3%
+10,457
100% 100% R+2% D+3.9%
Georgia (16) 49.5%
2,474,507
49.3%
2,461,837
+0.2%
+12,670
100% 100% 0% D+5.4%
North Carolina (15) 48.6%
2,684,292
49.9%
2,758,773
+1.3%
+74,481
100% 100% R+2.9% D+2.3%
Florida (29) 47.9%
5,297,045
51.2%
5,668,731
+3.3%
+371,686
100% 100% R+5.5% R+2.1%
Texas (38) 46.5%
5,259,126
52%
5,890,347
+5.5%
+631,221
100% 100% R+4% D+3.5%
Maine CD-2 (1) 45%
156,906
51.7%
180,287
+6.7%
+23,381
100% 71% R+8.8% D+3.6%
Ohio (18) 45.2%
2,679,165
53.3%
3,154,834
+8.1%
+475,669
100% 100% R+6.8% 0%
Iowa (6) 44.9%
758,881
53.2%
897,467
+8.3%
+138,586
100% 98% R+7.6% D+1.2%
Alaska (3) 42.9%
153,324
53.1%
189,818
+10.2%
+36,494
100% 99% R+1.9% D+4.5%
South Carolina (9) 43.4%
1,091,541
55.1%
1,385,103
+11.7%
+293,562
100% 100% R+3.9% D+2.5%
Nebraska CD-1 (1) 41.4%
131,914
56.3%
179,408
+14.9%
+47,494
100% 99% R+13.1% D+5.8%
Kansas (6) 41.3%
551,144
56.4%
752,903
+15.1%
+201,759
100% 100% R+2.5% D+5.5%
Missouri (10) 41.4%
1,253,561
56.7%
1,717,912
+15.3%
+464,351
100% 99% R+5.9% D+3.4%
Indiana (11) 41%
1,242,495
57%
1,729,852
+16%
+487,357
100% 100% R+4.8% D+2.9%
Montana (3) 40.4%
244,786
56.7%
343,602
+16.3%
+98,816
100% 100% R+9.7% D+4.1%
Mississippi (6) 41%
539,494
57.5%
756,731
+16.5%
+217,237
100% 100% D+2.4% D+1.3%
Louisiana (8) 39.9%
856,034
58.5%
1,255,776
+18.6%
+399,742
100% 100% D+5.7% D+1%
Nebraska (2) 39.3%
374,583
58.5%
556,846
+19.2%
+182,263
100% 100% R+2.1% D+5.9%
Utah (6) 37.6%
560,282
58.1%
865,140
+20.5%
+304,858
100% 100% R+8.4% R+2.5%
Tennessee (11) 37.4%
1,139,376
60.7%
1,849,820
+23.3%
+710,444
100% 100% R+6.6% D+2.7%
Alabama (9) 36.6%
849,624
62%
1,441,170
+25.4%
+591,546
100% 100% R+4.9% D+2.3%
Kentucky (8) 36.2%
772,474
62.1%
1,326,646
+25.9%
+554,172
100% 100% R+8.1% D+3.9%
South Dakota (3) 35.6%
150,471
61.8%
261,043
+26.2%
+110,572
100% 100% R+6.6% D+3.6%
Arkansas (6) 34.8%
423,932
62.4%
760,647
+27.6%
+336,715
100% 100% D+0.9% R+0.7%
Idaho (4) 33.1%
287,021
63.8%
554,118
+30.7%
+267,097
100% 99% R+5.7% D+1.1%
Oklahoma (7) 32.3%
503,890
65.4%
1,020,280
+33.1%
+516,390
100% 100% R+4.2% D+3.3%
North Dakota (3) 31.8%
114,902
65.1%
235,595
+33.3%
+120,693
100% 100% R+10.5% D+2.5%
West Virginia (5) 29.7%
235,984
68.6%
545,382
+38.9%
+309,398
100% 100% R+9.4% D+3.2%
Wyoming (3) 26.6%
73,491
69.9%
193,559
+43.3%
+120,068
100% 100% R+8.5% D+2.5%
Nebraska CD-3 (1) 22.4%
65,805
75.6%
221,934
+53.2%
+156,129
100% 97% D+1% D+1%
Average R+3.1% D+3.3%
Average (Swing States) R+4% D+3.2%


Pollsters

Here's how pollsters are faring in the election (this will be updated as more votes come in).

We show how much each pollster's polls missed, both their 'Avg Polling Error' (either direction) and their 'Avg Polls v. Results (Bias)'
(directional average of their polling errors, aka, their new 'Bias').

Polls are weighted based upon date and older polls are excluded (so their polling average is mostly their polls close to election day).
Note: we don't include states where less than 90% of the votes have been reported.


Large Pollsters

(More Than 10 Polls or A Rated)

Pollster Rating 538 Bias Avg Polling Error Avg Polls v. Results (Bias) # Polls
+ Susquehanna Polling & Research Inc. C D+0.9% 1.8% D+0.8% 10
State Polls Result Polls v. Results (Bias) # Polls
Arizona R+0.2% D+0.3% R+0.5% 2
Florida R+1.7% R+3.3% D+1.6% 3
North Carolina D+2% R+1.3% D+3.3% 1
Pennsylvania R+0.8% D+1.2% R+2% 1
Wisconsin D+2.3% D+0.7% D+1.6% 3
+ Trafalgar Group C- R+0.9% 2% R+1.1% 28
State Polls Result Polls v. Results (Bias) # Polls
Arizona R+2.7% D+0.3% R+3% 2
Florida R+2.6% R+3.3% D+0.7% 2
Louisiana R+18.2% R+18.6% D+0.4% 1
Michigan R+2.2% D+2.8% R+5% 6
Minnesota D+3.2% D+7.1% R+3.9% 1
Nevada D+2.3% D+2.4% R+0.1% 1
North Carolina R+2.2% R+1.3% R+0.9% 2
Ohio R+4.7% R+8.1% D+3.4% 2
Pennsylvania R+1.1% D+1.2% R+2.3% 6
Wisconsin D+0.9% D+0.7% D+0.2% 5
+ Selzer & Co. A+ D+0.1% 2.3% D+2.3% 4
State Polls Result Polls v. Results (Bias) # Polls
Iowa R+6% R+8.3% D+2.3% 4
+ InsiderAdvantage 2.9% D+0.1% 10
State Polls Result Polls v. Results (Bias) # Polls
Florida R+1.5% R+3.3% D+1.8% 2
Georgia R+2% D+0.2% R+2.2% 1
Iowa R+1.2% R+8.3% D+7.1% 2
Michigan D+2.1% D+2.8% R+0.7% 1
North Carolina R+4.4% R+1.3% R+3.1% 1
Pennsylvania R+1.3% D+1.2% R+2.5% 3
+ Suffolk University A D+0.6% 3.2% D+2.7% 11
State Polls Result Polls v. Results (Bias) # Polls
Arizona D+4% D+0.3% D+3.7% 1
Florida 0% R+3.3% D+3.3% 1
Maine D+12.2% D+8.7% D+3.5% 2
Maine CD-1 D+21.8% D+23% R+1.2% 2
Minnesota D+6.4% D+7.1% R+0.7% 1
New Hampshire D+10.2% D+7.3% D+2.9% 1
North Carolina D+3.9% R+1.3% D+5.2% 2
Pennsylvania D+6.2% D+1.2% D+5% 1
+ AtlasIntel B/C 3.3% D+0.5% 16
State Polls Result Polls v. Results (Bias) # Polls
Arizona R+2.3% D+0.3% R+2.6% 1
California D+35.9% D+29.2% D+6.7% 1
Florida D+0.1% R+3.3% D+3.4% 2
Georgia R+2.2% D+0.2% R+2.4% 1
Michigan D+2.4% D+2.8% R+0.4% 2
Nevada D+2.8% D+2.4% D+0.4% 1
New Hampshire R+2.4% D+7.3% R+9.7% 1
North Carolina R+2% R+1.3% R+0.7% 1
Ohio R+3.9% R+8.1% D+4.2% 1
Pennsylvania R+1.1% D+1.2% R+2.3% 1
South Carolina R+5.8% R+11.7% D+5.9% 1
Texas R+2.7% R+5.5% D+2.8% 2
Wisconsin D+1.9% D+0.7% D+1.2% 1
+ University of Massachusetts Lowell A/B R+0.2% 3.4% D+0.7% 10
State Polls Result Polls v. Results (Bias) # Polls
Massachusetts D+28% D+33.5% R+5.5% 1
New Hampshire D+9.9% D+7.3% D+2.6% 3
North Carolina 0% R+1.3% D+1.3% 3
Texas R+1.3% R+5.5% D+4.2% 3
+ SurveyUSA A D+0.1% 3.6% D+1.6% 32
State Polls Result Polls v. Results (Bias) # Polls
California D+27.5% D+29.2% R+1.7% 9
Colorado D+10% D+13.5% R+3.5% 1
Connecticut D+20% D+20% 0% 1
Georgia D+2.1% D+0.2% D+1.9% 3
Indiana R+7% R+16% D+9% 1
Kansas R+7% R+15.1% D+8.1% 1
Maine D+13% D+8.7% D+4.3% 1
Maine CD-1 D+19% D+23% R+4% 1
Minnesota D+5.6% D+7.1% R+1.5% 4
North Carolina D+1.4% R+1.3% D+2.7% 6
Washington D+22.1% D+19.4% D+2.7% 4
+ Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research C+ R+1.5% 3.8% D+3% 15
State Polls Result Polls v. Results (Bias) # Polls
Arizona R+2.4% D+0.3% R+2.7% 2
Florida R+0.3% R+3.3% D+3% 2
Michigan D+8.6% D+2.8% D+5.8% 1
North Carolina R+1% R+1.3% D+0.3% 3
Ohio R+2.8% R+8.1% D+5.3% 3
Pennsylvania D+3% D+1.2% D+1.8% 3
Wisconsin D+8.4% D+0.7% D+7.7% 1
+ Emerson College A- D+0.3% 3.9% D+2.1% 61
State Polls Result Polls v. Results (Bias) # Polls
Arizona D+2.1% D+0.3% D+1.8% 3
California D+29.4% D+29.2% D+0.2% 2
Colorado D+9.8% D+13.5% R+3.7% 1
Florida D+5% R+3.3% D+8.3% 2
Georgia R+0.8% D+0.2% R+1% 2
Iowa R+0.8% R+8.3% D+7.5% 6
Maine D+11.4% D+8.7% D+2.7% 1
Maine CD-1 D+19% D+23% R+4% 1
Massachusetts D+37.2% D+33.5% D+3.7% 3
Michigan D+7.4% D+2.8% D+4.6% 5
Minnesota D+2% D+7.1% R+5.1% 1
Montana R+12.4% R+16.3% D+3.9% 2
Nebraska CD-2 D+2.6% D+6.9% R+4.3% 1
Nevada D+1.6% D+2.4% R+0.8% 3
New Hampshire D+8% D+7.3% D+0.7% 5
New Jersey D+18.3% D+15.9% D+2.4% 1
New Mexico D+8.6% D+10.8% R+2.2% 1
North Carolina D+0.6% R+1.3% D+1.9% 5
Ohio D+1% R+8.1% D+9.1% 3
Pennsylvania D+4.8% D+1.2% D+3.6% 4
South Carolina R+3.8% R+11.7% D+7.9% 1
Texas R+0.8% R+5.5% D+4.7% 4
Wisconsin D+7.3% D+0.7% D+6.6% 4
+ Marquette Law School 4% D+4% 13
State Polls Result Polls v. Results (Bias) # Polls
Wisconsin D+4.7% D+0.7% D+4% 13
+ East Carolina University B/C 4% D+4% 11
State Polls Result Polls v. Results (Bias) # Polls
North Carolina D+2.8% R+1.3% D+4.1% 9
South Carolina R+7.8% R+11.7% D+3.9% 2
+ YouGov B D+0.4% 4.1% D+3.4% 57
State Polls Result Polls v. Results (Bias) # Polls
Arizona D+3% D+0.3% D+2.7% 3
California D+28% D+29.2% R+1.2% 2
Colorado D+9% D+13.5% R+4.5% 1
Florida D+2% R+3.3% D+5.3% 4
Georgia R+0.1% D+0.2% R+0.3% 3
Iowa 0% R+8.3% D+8.3% 1
Massachusetts D+34.9% D+33.5% D+1.4% 2
Michigan D+8.6% D+2.8% D+5.8% 7
Minnesota D+9% D+7.1% D+1.9% 1
Missouri R+8.6% R+15.3% D+6.7% 2
Nevada D+6% D+2.4% D+3.6% 1
North Carolina D+3.8% R+1.3% D+5.1% 3
Ohio R+0.1% R+8.1% D+8% 2
Pennsylvania D+7.5% D+1.2% D+6.3% 7
South Carolina R+10% R+11.7% D+1.7% 1
Texas R+5.1% R+5.5% D+0.4% 9
Wisconsin D+7.3% D+0.7% D+6.6% 8
+ Muhlenberg College A+ R+0.2% 4.2% D+4.2% 5
State Polls Result Polls v. Results (Bias) # Polls
Pennsylvania D+5.4% D+1.2% D+4.2% 5
+ Data for Progress B- 0% 4.2% D+4% 46
State Polls Result Polls v. Results (Bias) # Polls
Alabama R+20% R+25.4% D+5.4% 1
Arizona D+2.8% D+0.3% D+2.5% 4
Colorado D+12% D+13.5% R+1.5% 1
Florida D+3% R+3.3% D+6.3% 2
Georgia D+1.6% D+0.2% D+1.4% 4
Iowa R+1.9% R+8.3% D+6.4% 4
Kansas R+13.4% R+15.1% D+1.7% 3
Kentucky R+18.7% R+25.9% D+7.2% 2
Maine D+14% D+8.7% D+5.3% 2
Michigan D+5.1% D+2.8% D+2.3% 3
Minnesota D+8% D+7.1% D+0.9% 1
Mississippi R+14% R+16.5% D+2.5% 1
Montana R+6% R+16.3% D+10.3% 1
Nevada D+7% D+2.4% D+4.6% 1
North Carolina D+2.8% R+1.3% D+4.1% 3
Pennsylvania D+7% D+1.2% D+5.8% 1
South Carolina R+8.1% R+11.7% D+3.6% 5
Texas D+1% R+5.5% D+6.5% 6
Virginia D+11% D+10.1% D+0.9% 1
+ Monmouth University A+ D+1.3% 4.5% D+4.5% 35
State Polls Result Polls v. Results (Bias) # Polls
Arizona D+3.3% D+0.3% D+3% 5
Florida D+4.5% R+3.3% D+7.8% 4
Georgia D+1.8% D+0.2% D+1.6% 6
Iowa D+3% R+8.3% D+11.3% 6
Michigan D+7% D+2.8% D+4.2% 1
New Jersey D+16% D+15.9% D+0.1% 1
North Carolina D+2% R+1.3% D+3.3% 4
Pennsylvania D+6.1% D+1.2% D+4.9% 8
+ Morning Consult B/C D+0.2% 4.7% D+4.7% 89
State Polls Result Polls v. Results (Bias) # Polls
Arizona D+1.7% D+0.3% D+1.4% 5
Colorado D+13.6% D+13.5% D+0.1% 5
Florida D+6.1% R+3.3% D+9.4% 6
Georgia D+1.4% D+0.2% D+1.2% 5
Indiana R+11.4% R+16% D+4.6% 1
Michigan D+7.5% D+2.8% D+4.7% 5
Minnesota D+8.8% D+7.1% D+1.7% 6
Missouri R+9.4% R+15.3% D+5.9% 1
North Carolina D+1.5% R+1.3% D+2.8% 6
Ohio R+2.6% R+8.1% D+5.5% 5
Pennsylvania D+8.6% D+1.2% D+7.4% 5
South Carolina R+6.9% R+11.7% D+4.8% 4
Texas 0% R+5.5% D+5.5% 6
Wisconsin D+12% D+0.7% D+11.3% 29
+ Change Research C- D+1.1% 4.8% D+2.9% 31
State Polls Result Polls v. Results (Bias) # Polls
Arizona D+3.7% D+0.3% D+3.4% 4
Florida D+3.4% R+3.3% D+6.7% 4
Iowa 0% R+8.3% D+8.3% 1
Maine D+12% D+8.7% D+3.3% 1
Maine CD-1 D+21% D+23% R+2% 1
Maryland D+29% D+33.4% R+4.4% 1
Michigan D+7.1% D+2.8% D+4.3% 4
Minnesota D+5% D+7.1% R+2.1% 1
Montana R+5% R+16.3% D+11.3% 1
Nebraska CD-2 D+3% D+6.9% R+3.9% 1
North Carolina D+2.2% R+1.3% D+3.5% 4
Pennsylvania D+3.6% D+1.2% D+2.4% 4
Wisconsin D+8% D+0.7% D+7.3% 4
+ EPIC-MRA B+ R+0.2% 4.9% D+4.9% 10
State Polls Result Polls v. Results (Bias) # Polls
Michigan D+7.7% D+2.8% D+4.9% 10
+ SurveyMonkey D- D+5% 5% D+4.2% 574
State Polls Result Polls v. Results (Bias) # Polls
Alabama R+24% R+25.4% D+1.4% 12
Alaska R+8.3% R+10.2% D+1.9% 10
Arizona D+5.5% D+0.3% D+5.2% 11
Arkansas R+22% R+27.6% D+5.6% 11
California D+25.8% D+29.2% R+3.4% 14
Colorado D+12.8% D+13.5% R+0.7% 11
Connecticut D+22.8% D+20% D+2.8% 12
Delaware D+22.3% D+19% D+3.3% 11
District of Columbia D+87.3% D+86.7% D+0.6% 11
Florida R+2% R+3.3% D+1.3% 13
Georgia D+1.5% D+0.2% D+1.3% 12
Hawaii D+33.9% D+29.4% D+4.5% 11
Idaho R+19.4% R+30.7% D+11.3% 11
Illinois D+17.2% D+17% D+0.2% 12
Indiana R+10.2% R+16% D+5.8% 12
Iowa R+1% R+8.3% D+7.3% 12
Kansas R+9.6% R+15.1% D+5.5% 12
Kentucky R+18.6% R+25.9% D+7.3% 12
Louisiana R+26% R+18.6% R+7.4% 12
Maine D+13.5% D+8.7% D+4.8% 11
Maryland D+34.1% D+33.4% D+0.7% 11
Massachusetts D+39.7% D+33.5% D+6.2% 12
Michigan D+6.2% D+2.8% D+3.4% 12
Minnesota D+13.3% D+7.1% D+6.2% 12
Mississippi R+24.2% R+16.5% R+7.7% 11
Missouri R+10.3% R+15.3% D+5% 12
Montana R+5.8% R+16.3% D+10.5% 10
Nebraska R+12.2% R+19.2% D+7% 11
Nevada D+0.4% D+2.4% R+2% 12
New Hampshire D+6.7% D+7.3% R+0.6% 11
New Jersey D+21.1% D+15.9% D+5.2% 12
New Mexico D+12.7% D+10.8% D+1.9% 12
North Carolina D+4.4% R+1.3% D+5.7% 12
North Dakota R+19.9% R+33.3% D+13.4% 10
Ohio R+2.8% R+8.1% D+5.3% 11
Oklahoma R+27.8% R+33.1% D+5.3% 12
Oregon D+20.4% D+16.1% D+4.3% 12
Pennsylvania D+4.6% D+1.2% D+3.4% 12
Rhode Island D+27.3% D+20.8% D+6.5% 10
South Carolina R+11.1% R+11.7% D+0.6% 12
South Dakota R+24.4% R+26.2% D+1.8% 11
Tennessee R+11% R+23.3% D+12.3% 11
Texas R+4% R+5.5% D+1.5% 12
Utah R+10.7% R+20.5% D+9.8% 12
Vermont D+43.3% D+35.4% D+7.9% 10
Virginia D+14.8% D+10.1% D+4.7% 12
Washington D+26% D+19.4% D+6.6% 11
West Virginia R+34.3% R+38.9% D+4.6% 11
Wisconsin D+10.1% D+0.7% D+9.4% 11
Wyoming R+32.6% R+43.3% D+10.7% 11
+ Ipsos B- D+0.4% 5% D+5% 63
State Polls Result Polls v. Results (Bias) # Polls
Arizona D+2.3% D+0.3% D+2% 10
Florida D+3.4% R+3.3% D+6.7% 10
Michigan D+9% D+2.8% D+6.2% 11
North Carolina D+1.2% R+1.3% D+2.5% 10
Pennsylvania D+5.8% D+1.2% D+4.6% 11
Wisconsin D+8.8% D+0.7% D+8.1% 11
+ Civiqs B/C 5.1% D+4.9% 38
State Polls Result Polls v. Results (Bias) # Polls
Arizona D+4% D+0.3% D+3.7% 1
Colorado D+12% D+13.5% R+1.5% 1
Florida D+4% R+3.3% D+7.3% 1
Georgia D+4.7% D+0.2% D+4.5% 3
Iowa D+0.9% R+8.3% D+9.2% 3
Kansas R+10.1% R+15.1% D+5% 2
Kentucky R+20% R+25.9% D+5.9% 1
Michigan D+9% D+2.8% D+6.2% 3
Minnesota D+10% D+7.1% D+2.9% 1
Mississippi R+14% R+16.5% D+2.5% 1
Montana R+4% R+16.3% D+12.3% 1
Nevada D+9% D+2.4% D+6.6% 1
North Carolina D+5% R+1.3% D+6.3% 2
Ohio R+1.4% R+8.1% D+6.7% 4
Oregon D+17% D+16.1% D+0.9% 1
Pennsylvania D+6.8% D+1.2% D+5.6% 5
South Carolina R+10% R+11.7% D+1.7% 1
Texas 0% R+5.5% D+5.5% 1
Virginia D+13% D+10.1% D+2.9% 1
Wisconsin D+4.8% D+0.7% D+4.1% 4
+ Marist College A+ R+0.3% 5.2% D+5.2% 15
State Polls Result Polls v. Results (Bias) # Polls
Arizona D+0.3% D+0.3% 0% 3
Florida D+3.6% R+3.3% D+6.9% 2
Michigan D+8% D+2.8% D+5.2% 1
New Hampshire D+8% D+7.3% D+0.7% 1
North Carolina D+5.9% R+1.3% D+7.2% 3
Ohio D+4% R+8.1% D+12.1% 1
Pennsylvania D+5.4% D+1.2% D+4.2% 2
Texas R+4% R+5.5% D+1.5% 1
Wisconsin D+10% D+0.7% D+9.3% 1
+ Gravis Marketing C D+0.9% 5.3% D+5.3% 11
State Polls Result Polls v. Results (Bias) # Polls
Alaska R+9% R+10.2% D+1.2% 1
Arizona D+3.9% D+0.3% D+3.6% 2
Michigan D+13% D+2.8% D+10.2% 1
Minnesota D+14% D+7.1% D+6.9% 1
Nevada D+6% D+2.4% D+3.6% 1
North Carolina D+3% R+1.3% D+4.3% 1
Ohio R+2% R+8.1% D+6.1% 1
Pennsylvania D+7% D+1.2% D+5.8% 1
Texas R+5% R+5.5% D+0.5% 1
Wisconsin D+11% D+0.7% D+10.3% 1
+ Swayable D- 5.3% D+4.7% 40
State Polls Result Polls v. Results (Bias) # Polls
Alabama R+17.6% R+25.4% D+7.8% 2
Arizona D+5.9% D+0.3% D+5.6% 2
California D+26.7% D+29.2% R+2.5% 1
Colorado D+14.7% D+13.5% D+1.2% 1
Connecticut D+30.4% D+20% D+10.4% 1
Florida D+4.6% R+3.3% D+7.9% 2
Georgia D+7.5% D+0.2% D+7.3% 2
Illinois D+11.4% D+17% R+5.6% 2
Indiana R+11.8% R+16% D+4.2% 2
Kentucky R+13.5% R+25.9% D+12.4% 1
Louisiana R+17.5% R+18.6% D+1.1% 1
Maryland D+35.9% D+33.4% D+2.5% 1
Michigan D+11.5% D+2.8% D+8.7% 2
Minnesota D+9.3% D+7.1% D+2.2% 1
Missouri R+11.2% R+15.3% D+4.1% 1
New Jersey D+20.3% D+15.9% D+4.4% 2
North Carolina D+5.1% R+1.3% D+6.4% 2
Ohio R+6.9% R+8.1% D+1.2% 2
Oregon D+23.2% D+16.1% D+7.1% 1
Pennsylvania D+2.6% D+1.2% D+1.4% 2
South Carolina R+0.9% R+11.7% D+10.8% 1
Tennessee R+16.7% R+23.3% D+6.6% 1
Texas R+3.3% R+5.5% D+2.2% 2
Virginia D+13.9% D+10.1% D+3.8% 2
Washington D+20.3% D+19.4% D+0.9% 1
Wisconsin D+9.5% D+0.7% D+8.8% 2
+ Siena College/The New York Times Upshot A+ R+0.3% 5.4% D+5% 49
State Polls Result Polls v. Results (Bias) # Polls
Alaska R+6% R+10.2% D+4.2% 1
Arizona D+6.5% D+0.3% D+6.2% 5
Florida D+3.4% R+3.3% D+6.7% 4
Georgia 0% D+0.2% R+0.2% 2
Iowa D+2.4% R+8.3% D+10.7% 4
Kansas R+7% R+15.1% D+8.1% 1
Maine D+17% D+8.7% D+8.3% 1
Michigan D+8% D+2.8% D+5.2% 4
Minnesota D+9% D+7.1% D+1.9% 1
Montana R+6.2% R+16.3% D+10.1% 2
Nebraska CD-2 D+7% D+6.9% D+0.1% 1
Nevada D+5.9% D+2.4% D+3.5% 3
New Hampshire D+3% D+7.3% R+4.3% 1
North Carolina D+3.2% R+1.3% D+4.5% 5
Ohio D+1% R+8.1% D+9.1% 1
Pennsylvania D+6.4% D+1.2% D+5.2% 5
South Carolina R+8% R+11.7% D+3.7% 1
Texas R+3.9% R+5.5% D+1.6% 2
Wisconsin D+10.3% D+0.7% D+9.6% 5
+ RMG Research B/C 5.4% D+4.6% 24
State Polls Result Polls v. Results (Bias) # Polls
Arizona D+1% D+0.3% D+0.7% 1
Colorado D+8% D+13.5% R+5.5% 1
Florida D+3.3% R+3.3% D+6.6% 3
Iowa 0% R+8.3% D+8.3% 2
Kentucky R+17% R+25.9% D+8.9% 1
Maine D+11% D+8.7% D+2.3% 1
Michigan D+6.8% D+2.8% D+4% 2
Montana R+4% R+16.3% D+12.3% 1
North Carolina D+1.2% R+1.3% D+2.5% 2
Pennsylvania D+6% D+1.2% D+4.8% 2
Texas R+4% R+5.5% D+1.5% 1
Utah R+12.7% R+20.5% D+7.8% 6
Wisconsin D+6% D+0.7% D+5.3% 1
+ Public Policy Polling B D+0.3% 5.4% D+5.1% 85
State Polls Result Polls v. Results (Bias) # Polls
Alaska R+5% R+10.2% D+5.2% 3
Arizona D+2.5% D+0.3% D+2.2% 3
California D+38% D+29.2% D+8.8% 1
Colorado D+14.2% D+13.5% D+0.7% 2
Delaware D+21% D+19% D+2% 1
Florida D+6.9% R+3.3% D+10.2% 2
Georgia D+1.8% D+0.2% D+1.6% 6
Iowa D+0.8% R+8.3% D+9.1% 5
Kansas R+11.7% R+15.1% D+3.4% 3
Kentucky R+16% R+25.9% D+9.9% 1
Maine D+11% D+8.7% D+2.3% 4
Maine CD-1 D+20% D+23% R+3% 1
Michigan D+8.6% D+2.8% D+5.8% 12
Minnesota D+10.8% D+7.1% D+3.7% 3
Montana R+3% R+16.3% D+13.3% 4
New Mexico D+13.8% D+10.8% D+3% 3
North Carolina D+3.9% R+1.3% D+5.2% 12
Ohio D+2.7% R+8.1% D+10.8% 2
Pennsylvania D+6.4% D+1.2% D+5.2% 3
Texas D+1.5% R+5.5% D+7% 10
Washington D+23% D+19.4% D+3.6% 2
Wisconsin D+3.7% D+0.7% D+3% 2
+ ABC News/The Washington Post A+ D+0.5% 5.6% D+5.3% 11
State Polls Result Polls v. Results (Bias) # Polls
Arizona R+1% D+0.3% R+1.3% 1
Florida R+2.2% R+3.3% D+1.1% 2
Michigan D+7% D+2.8% D+4.2% 1
Minnesota D+16% D+7.1% D+8.9% 1
North Carolina D+1.7% R+1.3% D+3% 2
Pennsylvania D+7.3% D+1.2% D+6.1% 2
Wisconsin D+15.6% D+0.7% D+14.9% 2
+ Hart Research Associates 6% D+6% 10
State Polls Result Polls v. Results (Bias) # Polls
Arizona D+11% D+0.3% D+10.7% 1
Florida D+6% R+3.3% D+9.3% 1
Georgia D+3% D+0.2% D+2.8% 1
Iowa R+2% R+8.3% D+6.3% 1
Michigan D+5% D+2.8% D+2.2% 1
North Carolina D+2% R+1.3% D+3.3% 1
Ohio R+2% R+8.1% D+6.1% 1
Pennsylvania D+11% D+1.2% D+9.8% 1
Texas R+2% R+5.5% D+3.5% 1
Wisconsin D+7% D+0.7% D+6.3% 1
+ Fox News 6.2% D+6.2% 28
State Polls Result Polls v. Results (Bias) # Polls
Arizona D+7.5% D+0.3% D+7.2% 2
Florida D+7% R+3.3% D+10.3% 2
Georgia D+2% D+0.2% D+1.8% 1
Michigan D+11.5% D+2.8% D+8.7% 3
Minnesota D+13% D+7.1% D+5.9% 1
Nevada D+9.9% D+2.4% D+7.5% 3
North Carolina D+3.2% R+1.3% D+4.5% 3
Ohio R+1.5% R+8.1% D+6.6% 3
Pennsylvania D+5.7% D+1.2% D+4.5% 4
Texas D+1% R+5.5% D+6.5% 1
Wisconsin D+5.6% D+0.7% D+4.9% 5
+ Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy B+ R+0.6% 6.5% D+3.4% 13
State Polls Result Polls v. Results (Bias) # Polls
Alabama R+20% R+25.4% D+5.4% 1
Florida D+3% R+3.3% D+6.3% 3
Georgia R+7% D+0.2% R+7.2% 1
Kentucky R+17% R+25.9% D+8.9% 1
Minnesota D+6.4% D+7.1% R+0.7% 3
Mississippi R+15% R+16.5% D+1.5% 1
South Dakota R+11% R+26.2% D+15.2% 1
Tennessee R+16% R+23.3% D+7.3% 1
Virginia D+4% D+10.1% R+6.1% 1
+ Redfield & Wilton Strategies 6.6% D+6.6% 24
State Polls Result Polls v. Results (Bias) # Polls
Arizona D+3.8% D+0.3% D+3.5% 4
Florida D+4.6% R+3.3% D+7.9% 4
Michigan D+12.3% D+2.8% D+9.5% 4
North Carolina D+2.5% R+1.3% D+3.8% 4
Pennsylvania D+5.4% D+1.2% D+4.2% 4
Wisconsin D+11.6% D+0.7% D+10.9% 4
+ Quinnipiac University B+ D+0.2% 7% D+5.9% 42
State Polls Result Polls v. Results (Bias) # Polls
Connecticut D+23% D+20% D+3% 1
Florida D+5% R+3.3% D+8.3% 7
Georgia D+6.1% D+0.2% D+5.9% 2
Iowa 0% R+8.3% D+8.3% 2
Kentucky R+17.3% R+25.9% D+8.6% 2
Maine D+19.5% D+8.7% D+10.8% 2
Maine CD-1 D+31.8% D+23% D+8.8% 2
Michigan D+4% D+2.8% D+1.2% 1
New Jersey D+19% D+15.9% D+3.1% 1
Ohio D+3.9% R+8.1% D+12% 6
Pennsylvania D+7.8% D+1.2% D+6.6% 6
South Carolina R+2.4% R+11.7% D+9.3% 3
Texas R+0.5% R+5.5% D+5% 6
Wisconsin R+7% D+0.7% R+7.7% 1
+ CNN/SSRS 7.1% D+5.2% 15
State Polls Result Polls v. Results (Bias) # Polls
Arizona D+4% D+0.3% D+3.7% 2
California D+21.6% D+29.2% R+7.6% 2
Florida D+4% R+3.3% D+7.3% 2
Michigan D+12% D+2.8% D+9.2% 2
North Carolina D+5.9% R+1.3% D+7.2% 2
Pennsylvania D+10% D+1.2% D+8.8% 1
Texas D+0.4% R+5.5% D+5.9% 2
Wisconsin D+8.1% D+0.7% D+7.4% 2


Smaller Pollsters

(Less Than 10 Polls)

Pollster Rating 538 Bias Avg Polling Error Avg Polls v. Results (Bias) # Polls
+ University of Georgia B/C R+0.3% 0.2% R+0.2% 4
State Polls Result Polls v. Results (Bias) # Polls
Georgia 0% D+0.2% R+0.2% 4
+ MassINC Polling Group A/B R+0.7% 0.4% D+0.4% 3
State Polls Result Polls v. Results (Bias) # Polls
Massachusetts D+33.9% D+33.5% D+0.4% 3
+ WPA Intelligence 0.4% R+0.4% 1
State Polls Result Polls v. Results (Bias) # Polls
Nevada D+2% D+2.4% R+0.4% 1
+ Basswood Research B/C R+0.2% 0.4% R+0.4% 3
State Polls Result Polls v. Results (Bias) # Polls
Arizona R+0.1% D+0.3% R+0.4% 3
+ Fairleigh Dickinson University (PublicMind) A/B 0% 0.5% R+0.5% 2
State Polls Result Polls v. Results (Bias) # Polls
New Jersey D+15.4% D+15.9% R+0.5% 2
+ HighGround Inc. B/C R+0.4% 0.7% D+0.7% 1
State Polls Result Polls v. Results (Bias) # Polls
Arizona D+1% D+0.3% D+0.7% 1
+ Fort Hays State University C/D R+1.4% 0.7% D+0.7% 1
State Polls Result Polls v. Results (Bias) # Polls
Kansas R+14.4% R+15.1% D+0.7% 1
+ Saint Anselm College 0.8% D+0.8% 2
State Polls Result Polls v. Results (Bias) # Polls
New Hampshire D+8.1% D+7.3% D+0.8% 2
+ Public Opinion Strategies B+ R+1.5% 0.8% D+0.8% 1
State Polls Result Polls v. Results (Bias) # Polls
Georgia D+1% D+0.2% D+0.8% 1
+ Cardinal Point Analytics (CardinalGPS) 0.9% R+0.9% 1
State Polls Result Polls v. Results (Bias) # Polls
North Carolina R+2.2% R+1.3% R+0.9% 1
+ Keating Research/OnSight Public Affairs/Melanson B/C R+0.1% 0.9% R+0.9% 2
State Polls Result Polls v. Results (Bias) # Polls
Colorado D+12.6% D+13.5% R+0.9% 2
+ The Washington Post/George Mason University 0.9% D+0.9% 1
State Polls Result Polls v. Results (Bias) # Polls
Virginia D+11% D+10.1% D+0.9% 1
+ Roanoke College B/C D+0.5% 0.9% D+0.9% 1
State Polls Result Polls v. Results (Bias) # Polls
Virginia D+11% D+10.1% D+0.9% 1
+ Bendixen & Amandi International B/C D+0.1% 1.3% R+1.3% 1
State Polls Result Polls v. Results (Bias) # Polls
Arizona R+1% D+0.3% R+1.3% 1
+ Christopher Newport University B/C D+0.7% 1.3% D+1.3% 2
State Polls Result Polls v. Results (Bias) # Polls
Virginia D+11.4% D+10.1% D+1.3% 2
+ OpinionWorks B/C R+0.5% 1.4% R+1.4% 1
State Polls Result Polls v. Results (Bias) # Polls
Maryland D+32% D+33.4% R+1.4% 1
+ Victory Research B/C 0% 1.4% R+1.4% 2
State Polls Result Polls v. Results (Bias) # Polls
Illinois D+15.6% D+17% R+1.4% 2
+ Research & Polling Inc. B+ R+0.9% 1.4% D+1.4% 2
State Polls Result Polls v. Results (Bias) # Polls
New Mexico D+12.2% D+10.8% D+1.4% 2
+ University of New Hampshire B- D+2.8% 1.6% D+1.6% 3
State Polls Result Polls v. Results (Bias) # Polls
New Hampshire D+8.9% D+7.3% D+1.6% 3
+ Data Orbital A/B D+0.3% 1.7% D+1.7% 5
State Polls Result Polls v. Results (Bias) # Polls
Arizona D+2% D+0.3% D+1.7% 5
+ Virginia Commonwealth University B/C R+0.2% 2% D+2% 2
State Polls Result Polls v. Results (Bias) # Polls
Virginia D+12.1% D+10.1% D+2% 2
+ Marketing Resource Group (MRG) B/C D+0.3% 2.2% D+2.2% 1
State Polls Result Polls v. Results (Bias) # Polls
Michigan D+5% D+2.8% D+2.2% 1
+ Goucher College 2.4% R+2.4% 1
State Polls Result Polls v. Results (Bias) # Polls
Maryland D+31% D+33.4% R+2.4% 1
+ Wick 2.5% R+0.6% 6
State Polls Result Polls v. Results (Bias) # Polls
Florida R+2.9% R+3.3% D+0.4% 1
Georgia R+2.5% D+0.2% R+2.7% 1
Michigan D+0.3% D+2.8% R+2.5% 1
North Carolina R+2.2% R+1.3% R+0.9% 1
Ohio R+2.9% R+8.1% D+5.2% 1
Pennsylvania R+2.1% D+1.2% R+3.3% 1
+ Latino Decisions B/C 2.5% D+2.5% 4
State Polls Result Polls v. Results (Bias) # Polls
Arizona D+3.2% D+0.3% D+2.9% 2
Florida R+3% R+3.3% D+0.3% 1
Wisconsin D+5% D+0.7% D+4.3% 1
+ Univision/University of Houston/Latino Decisions B/C 2.5% D+2.5% 1
State Polls Result Polls v. Results (Bias) # Polls
Texas R+3% R+5.5% D+2.5% 1
+ Colby College 2.7% D+1.7% 2
State Polls Result Polls v. Results (Bias) # Polls
Maine D+13% D+8.7% D+4.3% 1
Maine CD-1 D+22% D+23% R+1% 1
+ Cygnal A/B D+1% 2.9% D+1.5% 4
State Polls Result Polls v. Results (Bias) # Polls
Florida D+3.2% R+3.3% D+6.5% 1
Georgia R+1.1% D+0.2% R+1.3% 1
Virginia D+9.3% D+10.1% R+0.8% 2
+ Public Policy Institute of California A/B R+1% 2.9% R+2.9% 3
State Polls Result Polls v. Results (Bias) # Polls
California D+26.3% D+29.2% R+2.9% 3
+ OH Predictive Insights B/C R+0.9% 3% D+3% 4
State Polls Result Polls v. Results (Bias) # Polls
Arizona D+3.3% D+0.3% D+3% 4
+ Harper Polling B/C D+0.1% 3.1% R+1% 3
State Polls Result Polls v. Results (Bias) # Polls
Minnesota D+3% D+7.1% R+4.1% 1
North Carolina D+0.8% R+1.3% D+2.1% 2
+ Hendrix College B/C D+1.5% 3.1% D+3.1% 1
State Polls Result Polls v. Results (Bias) # Polls
Arkansas R+24.5% R+27.6% D+3.1% 1
+ Pulse Opinion Research 3.2% D+1.3% 3
State Polls Result Polls v. Results (Bias) # Polls
Nevada D+1% D+2.4% R+1.4% 1
New Hampshire D+14% D+7.3% D+6.7% 1
Texas R+7% R+5.5% R+1.5% 1
+ MRG Research B/C R+2.1% 3.2% D+3.2% 2
State Polls Result Polls v. Results (Bias) # Polls
Hawaii D+32.6% D+29.4% D+3.2% 2
+ AYTM 3.3% D+3.3% 3
State Polls Result Polls v. Results (Bias) # Polls
Florida D+2% R+3.3% D+5.3% 1
Georgia D+4% D+0.2% D+3.8% 1
Pennsylvania D+2% D+1.2% D+0.8% 1
+ Landmark Communications B D+1.5% 3.3% R+3.3% 7
State Polls Result Polls v. Results (Bias) # Polls
Georgia R+3.1% D+0.2% R+3.3% 7
+ Global Strategy Group B/C D+1.8% 3.4% D+2% 6
State Polls Result Polls v. Results (Bias) # Polls
Colorado D+12.4% D+13.5% R+1.1% 3
Nebraska CD-2 D+6% D+6.9% R+0.9% 1
Pennsylvania D+9.3% D+1.2% D+8.1% 2
+ RBI Strategies & Research B/C +0% 3.5% D+3.5% 1
State Polls Result Polls v. Results (Bias) # Polls
Colorado D+17% D+13.5% D+3.5% 1
+ Pan Atlantic Research B/C D+0.8% 3.7% R+1.8% 2
State Polls Result Polls v. Results (Bias) # Polls
Maine D+10.6% D+8.7% D+1.9% 1
Maine CD-1 D+17.5% D+23% R+5.5% 1
+ co/efficient C/D D+0.2% 3.7% R+3.7% 2
State Polls Result Polls v. Results (Bias) # Polls
Kansas R+17% R+15.1% R+1.9% 1
Vermont D+30% D+35.4% R+5.4% 1
+ Frederick Polls B/C +0% 3.8% D+3.8% 3
State Polls Result Polls v. Results (Bias) # Polls
Florida D+2% R+3.3% D+5.3% 1
North Carolina D+2% R+1.3% D+3.3% 1
Pennsylvania D+4% D+1.2% D+2.8% 1
+ University of Nevada Las Vegas Lee Business School 3.8% D+2.8% 2
State Polls Result Polls v. Results (Bias) # Polls
Nebraska CD-2 D+5.9% D+6.9% R+1% 1
Nevada D+9% D+2.4% D+6.6% 1
+ Whitman Insight Strategies 3.8% D+3.8% 1
State Polls Result Polls v. Results (Bias) # Polls
Pennsylvania D+5% D+1.2% D+3.8% 1
+ GBAO B/C 0% 3.9% D+3.9% 3
State Polls Result Polls v. Results (Bias) # Polls
Georgia D+3% D+0.2% D+2.8% 1
New Mexico D+13% D+10.8% D+2.2% 1
South Carolina R+5% R+11.7% D+6.7% 1
+ Research Co. B- R+0.5% 4.1% D+4.1% 7
State Polls Result Polls v. Results (Bias) # Polls
Illinois D+17% D+17% 0% 1
Michigan D+7% D+2.8% D+4.2% 1
Minnesota D+9% D+7.1% D+1.9% 1
New Jersey D+18% D+15.9% D+2.1% 1
Ohio 0% R+8.1% D+8.1% 1
Pennsylvania D+6% D+1.2% D+4.8% 1
Wisconsin D+8% D+0.7% D+7.3% 1
+ FM3 Research B/C D+0.5% 4.1% D+4.1% 1
State Polls Result Polls v. Results (Bias) # Polls
Nebraska CD-2 D+11% D+6.9% D+4.1% 1
+ DHM Research B/C R+0.1% 4.1% R+4.1% 1
State Polls Result Polls v. Results (Bias) # Polls
Oregon D+12% D+16.1% R+4.1% 1
+ Univision/Latino Decisions/North Star Opinion Research 4.2% D+4.2% 3
State Polls Result Polls v. Results (Bias) # Polls
Florida D+3% R+3.3% D+6.3% 1
Pennsylvania D+5% D+1.2% D+3.8% 1
Texas R+3% R+5.5% D+2.5% 1
+ David Binder Research B/C 4.3% D+4.3% 5
State Polls Result Polls v. Results (Bias) # Polls
California D+31% D+29.2% D+1.8% 2
Iowa R+6% R+8.3% D+2.3% 1
Minnesota D+11% D+7.1% D+3.9% 1
Wisconsin D+10% D+0.7% D+9.3% 1
+ Meeting Street Insights 4.3% D+4.3% 2
State Polls Result Polls v. Results (Bias) # Polls
North Carolina D+3% R+1.3% D+4.3% 2
+ CCES / YouGov 4.3% D+4.3% 5
State Polls Result Polls v. Results (Bias) # Polls
Florida D+2% R+3.3% D+5.3% 1
Georgia D+1% D+0.2% D+0.8% 1
North Carolina D+4% R+1.3% D+5.3% 1
Pennsylvania D+8% D+1.2% D+6.8% 1
Texas R+2% R+5.5% D+3.5% 1
+ University of New Orleans B/C D+0.3% 4.3% R+4.3% 1
State Polls Result Polls v. Results (Bias) # Polls
Louisiana R+22.9% R+18.6% R+4.3% 1
+ Starboard Communications B/C D+0.1% 4.4% D+4.4% 1
State Polls Result Polls v. Results (Bias) # Polls
South Carolina R+7.3% R+11.7% D+4.4% 1
+ Beacon Research B/C 4.5% D+4.5% 1
State Polls Result Polls v. Results (Bias) # Polls
Texas R+1% R+5.5% D+4.5% 1
+ Stockton University A/B D+0.7% 4.6% D+4.6% 1
State Polls Result Polls v. Results (Bias) # Polls
New Jersey D+20.5% D+15.9% D+4.6% 1
+ St. Pete Polls C R+0.4% 4.6% D+4.6% 5
State Polls Result Polls v. Results (Bias) # Polls
Florida D+1.3% R+3.3% D+4.6% 5
+ Univision/University of Arizona/Latino Decisions/North Star Opinion Research 4.7% D+4.7% 1
State Polls Result Polls v. Results (Bias) # Polls
Arizona D+5% D+0.3% D+4.7% 1
+ Franklin & Marshall College B/C D+0.4% 4.8% D+4.8% 4
State Polls Result Polls v. Results (Bias) # Polls
Pennsylvania D+6% D+1.2% D+4.8% 4
+ Meredith College B/C 4.8% D+4.8% 4
State Polls Result Polls v. Results (Bias) # Polls
North Carolina D+3.5% R+1.3% D+4.8% 4
+ Reconnect Research/Roanoke College 4.9% D+4.9% 1
State Polls Result Polls v. Results (Bias) # Polls
Virginia D+15% D+10.1% D+4.9% 1
+ Strategies 360 B/C R+0.1% 4.9% D+4.9% 3
State Polls Result Polls v. Results (Bias) # Polls
Arizona D+4% D+0.3% D+3.7% 1
Montana R+8% R+16.3% D+8.3% 1
Washington D+22% D+19.4% D+2.6% 1
+ TargetSmart 5% D+0.8% 2
State Polls Result Polls v. Results (Bias) # Polls
Georgia R+4% D+0.2% R+4.2% 1
Pennsylvania D+7% D+1.2% D+5.8% 1
+ Harris Poll 5% D+5% 6
State Polls Result Polls v. Results (Bias) # Polls
Florida D+2.4% R+3.3% D+5.7% 2
Michigan D+11% D+2.8% D+8.2% 1
North Carolina D+1% R+1.3% D+2.3% 1
Pennsylvania D+5% D+1.2% D+3.8% 2
+ Sacred Heart University B/C R+0.3% 5% D+5% 1
State Polls Result Polls v. Results (Bias) # Polls
Connecticut D+25% D+20% D+5% 1
+ Glengariff Group B/C D+0.3% 5.1% D+5.1% 3
State Polls Result Polls v. Results (Bias) # Polls
Michigan D+7.9% D+2.8% D+5.1% 3
+ Cole Hargrave Snodgrass & Associates B/C D+0.1% 5.1% D+5.1% 1
State Polls Result Polls v. Results (Bias) # Polls
Oklahoma R+28% R+33.1% D+5.1% 1
+ ALG Research B/C D+1.5% 5.2% D+5.2% 5
State Polls Result Polls v. Results (Bias) # Polls
Michigan D+8% D+2.8% D+5.2% 1
Nevada D+4% D+2.4% D+1.6% 1
North Carolina D+3% R+1.3% D+4.3% 1
Ohio D+2% R+8.1% D+10.1% 1
Pennsylvania D+6% D+1.2% D+4.8% 1
+ Baldwin Wallace University (Great Lakes Poll) 5.2% D+5.2% 4
State Polls Result Polls v. Results (Bias) # Polls
Michigan D+7% D+2.8% D+4.2% 1
Ohio R+1.6% R+8.1% D+6.5% 1
Pennsylvania D+5.1% D+1.2% D+3.9% 1
Wisconsin D+6.7% D+0.7% D+6% 1
+ University of Arkansas B/C D+0.7% 5.4% R+5.4% 1
State Polls Result Polls v. Results (Bias) # Polls
Arkansas R+33% R+27.6% R+5.4% 1
+ Mitchell Research & Communications C- D+0.8% 5.5% D+5.5% 3
State Polls Result Polls v. Results (Bias) # Polls
Michigan D+8.3% D+2.8% D+5.5% 3
+ EMC Research 5.5% D+5.5% 1
State Polls Result Polls v. Results (Bias) # Polls
Texas 0% R+5.5% D+5.5% 1
+ Florida Atlantic University B/C D+0.4% 5.7% D+5.7% 8
State Polls Result Polls v. Results (Bias) # Polls
Florida D+2.4% R+3.3% D+5.7% 8
+ Critical Insights C/D R+0.1% 5.7% D+5.7% 2
State Polls Result Polls v. Results (Bias) # Polls
Maine D+11% D+8.7% D+2.3% 1
Maine CD-1 D+32% D+23% D+9% 1
+ The Justice Collaborative Institute 5.7% D+5.7% 1
State Polls Result Polls v. Results (Bias) # Polls
Arizona D+6% D+0.3% D+5.7% 1
+ University of North Florida A/B D+0.7% 5.8% D+5.8% 5
State Polls Result Polls v. Results (Bias) # Polls
Florida D+2.5% R+3.3% D+5.8% 5
+ HarrisX 6% D+6% 1
State Polls Result Polls v. Results (Bias) # Polls
Georgia D+6.2% D+0.2% D+6% 1
+ DKC Analytics 6.1% D+6.1% 1
State Polls Result Polls v. Results (Bias) # Polls
New Jersey D+22% D+15.9% D+6.1% 1
+ Opinion Insight 6.1% D+6.1% 6
State Polls Result Polls v. Results (Bias) # Polls
Georgia D+3.6% D+0.2% D+3.4% 2
Iowa D+0.9% R+8.3% D+9.2% 2
Michigan D+8.6% D+2.8% D+5.8% 2
+ Auburn University at Montgomery 6.2% D+6.2% 2
State Polls Result Polls v. Results (Bias) # Polls
Alabama R+19.2% R+25.4% D+6.2% 2
+ Alaska Survey Research B/C D+1.8% 6.2% D+6.2% 1
State Polls Result Polls v. Results (Bias) # Polls
Alaska R+4% R+10.2% D+6.2% 1
+ Citizen Data 6.6% D+6.6% 7
State Polls Result Polls v. Results (Bias) # Polls
Florida D+4.9% R+3.3% D+8.2% 1
Georgia D+4.5% D+0.2% D+4.3% 1
Michigan D+8.1% D+2.8% D+5.3% 1
North Carolina D+6.6% R+1.3% D+7.9% 1
Ohio R+1.2% R+8.1% D+6.9% 1
Pennsylvania D+5.3% D+1.2% D+4.1% 1
Texas D+3.9% R+5.5% D+9.4% 1
+ University of California, Berkeley 6.8% D+6.8% 1
State Polls Result Polls v. Results (Bias) # Polls
California D+36% D+29.2% D+6.8% 1
+ Targoz Market Research C/D D+1.6% 6.8% D+6.3% 5
State Polls Result Polls v. Results (Bias) # Polls
Arizona R+1% D+0.3% R+1.3% 1
Florida D+3.7% R+3.3% D+7% 1
Michigan D+14% D+2.8% D+11.2% 1
Minnesota D+9% D+7.1% D+1.9% 1
Pennsylvania D+14% D+1.2% D+12.8% 1
+ Zia Poll C/D R+0.5% 6.8% R+6.8% 1
State Polls Result Polls v. Results (Bias) # Polls
Michigan R+4% D+2.8% R+6.8% 1
+ Patinkin Research Strategies 7% D+7% 3
State Polls Result Polls v. Results (Bias) # Polls
Alaska R+3% R+10.2% D+7.2% 1
Arizona D+7% D+0.3% D+6.7% 2
+ OnMessage Inc. B/C R+1.4% 7.2% D+7.2% 2
State Polls Result Polls v. Results (Bias) # Polls
Ohio R+0.9% R+8.1% D+7.2% 2
+ GQR Research 7.4% D+7.4% 3
State Polls Result Polls v. Results (Bias) # Polls
Florida D+5% R+3.3% D+8.3% 1
Michigan D+9% D+2.8% D+6.2% 1
Pennsylvania D+9% D+1.2% D+7.8% 1
+ Y2 Analytics B/C D+0.4% 7.9% D+7.9% 4
State Polls Result Polls v. Results (Bias) # Polls
Arizona D+3% D+0.3% D+2.7% 1
Utah R+7.5% R+20.5% D+13% 3
+ St. Cloud State University B/C D+0.3% 7.9% D+7.9% 1
State Polls Result Polls v. Results (Bias) # Polls
Minnesota D+15% D+7.1% D+7.9% 1
+ Ragnar Research Partners 8% D+8% 1
State Polls Result Polls v. Results (Bias) # Polls
Indiana R+8% R+16% D+8% 1
+ Rutgers University B/C +0% 8.1% D+8.1% 2
State Polls Result Polls v. Results (Bias) # Polls
New Jersey D+24% D+15.9% D+8.1% 2
+ University of Texas at Tyler B/C R+0.3% 8.2% D+8.2% 9
State Polls Result Polls v. Results (Bias) # Polls
Texas D+2.7% R+5.5% D+8.2% 9
+ Cherry Communications B/C R+0.5% 8.3% D+8.3% 1
State Polls Result Polls v. Results (Bias) # Polls
Florida D+5% R+3.3% D+8.3% 1
+ Gonzales Research & Marketing Strategies Inc. B/C R+0.3% 8.3% R+8.3% 1
State Polls Result Polls v. Results (Bias) # Polls
Maryland D+25.1% D+33.4% R+8.3% 1
+ Moore Information B/C R+0.7% 8.4% D+8.4% 1
State Polls Result Polls v. Results (Bias) # Polls
Alabama R+17% R+25.4% D+8.4% 1
+ Spry Strategies B/C R+0.3% 8.8% R+3.3% 2
State Polls Result Polls v. Results (Bias) # Polls
California D+17.2% D+29.2% R+12% 1
Idaho R+25.2% R+30.7% D+5.5% 1
+ Harstad Strategic Research Inc. B/C D+0.6% 9.2% D+9.2% 1
State Polls Result Polls v. Results (Bias) # Polls
Alaska R+1% R+10.2% D+9.2% 1
+ Montana State University Billings B/C D+0.3% 9.3% D+9.3% 1
State Polls Result Polls v. Results (Bias) # Polls
Montana R+7% R+16.3% D+9.3% 1
+ Saint Leo University C/D D+1.8% 9.3% D+9.3% 1
State Polls Result Polls v. Results (Bias) # Polls
Florida D+6% R+3.3% D+9.3% 1
+ TIPP 9.4% D+9.4% 3
State Polls Result Polls v. Results (Bias) # Polls
Florida D+11% R+3.3% D+14.3% 1
Michigan D+13% D+2.8% D+10.2% 1
Pennsylvania D+5% D+1.2% D+3.8% 1
+ The Tyson Group B/C +0% 9.5% D+9.5% 3
State Polls Result Polls v. Results (Bias) # Polls
Louisiana R+6% R+18.6% D+12.6% 1
Mississippi R+10% R+16.5% D+6.5% 1
Texas D+4% R+5.5% D+9.5% 1
+ Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group B/C D+1.3% 10.1% D+10.1% 2
State Polls Result Polls v. Results (Bias) # Polls
Georgia D+7% D+0.2% D+6.8% 1
Missouri R+2% R+15.3% D+13.3% 1
+ Kiaer Research 10.1% D+10.1% 1
State Polls Result Polls v. Results (Bias) # Polls
Michigan D+12.9% D+2.8% D+10.1% 1
+ Remington Research Group C- D+1.2% 10.1% D+10.1% 4
State Polls Result Polls v. Results (Bias) # Polls
Missouri R+5.2% R+15.3% D+10.1% 4
+ Clearview Research 10.3% D+10.3% 1
State Polls Result Polls v. Results (Bias) # Polls
Florida D+7% R+3.3% D+10.3% 1
+ American Research Group B R+0.2% 10.3% D+10.3% 2
State Polls Result Polls v. Results (Bias) # Polls
New Hampshire D+17.6% D+7.3% D+10.3% 2
+ SoonerPoll 11% D+11% 3
State Polls Result Polls v. Results (Bias) # Polls
Oklahoma R+22.1% R+33.1% D+11% 3
+ Nielson Brothers Polling C/D D+2.9% 11.2% D+11.2% 1
State Polls Result Polls v. Results (Bias) # Polls
South Dakota R+15% R+26.2% D+11.2% 1
+ RABA Research B/C D+0.3% 12.1% D+12.1% 2
State Polls Result Polls v. Results (Bias) # Polls
Iowa D+3.8% R+8.3% D+12.1% 2
+ Braun Research B/C D+1.2% 12.2% R+12.2% 1
State Polls Result Polls v. Results (Bias) # Polls
Vermont D+23.2% D+35.4% R+12.2% 1
+ Bluegrass Community and Technical College 12.7% D+12.7% 1
State Polls Result Polls v. Results (Bias) # Polls
Kentucky R+13.2% R+25.9% D+12.7% 1
+ SSRS B/C D+1.2% 14.3% D+14.3% 1
State Polls Result Polls v. Results (Bias) # Polls
Tennessee R+9% R+23.3% D+14.3% 1
+ University of Wyoming 15.3% D+15.3% 1
State Polls Result Polls v. Results (Bias) # Polls
Wyoming R+28% R+43.3% D+15.3% 1
+ Research America Inc. B/C D+0.1% 15.9% D+15.9% 2
State Polls Result Polls v. Results (Bias) # Polls
Virginia D+17% D+10.1% D+6.9% 1
West Virginia R+14% R+38.9% D+24.9% 1
+ DFM Research B/C D+1.5% 18.4% D+18.4% 2
State Polls Result Polls v. Results (Bias) # Polls
North Dakota R+14.9% R+33.3% D+18.4% 2
+ Triton Polling & Research 18.9% D+18.9% 2
State Polls Result Polls v. Results (Bias) # Polls
West Virginia R+20% R+38.9% D+18.9% 2


About

Every 2 minutes we get the latest vote count in every state. We then re-run our 20,000 simulations of the election to project who's most likely to win each state and the election overall. Your screen will update automatically with the latest info (so no need to hit refresh).

As we get more votes in, we'll defer to the vote count more (rather than the polls) and start narrowing the range our model tests in its simulations.

Some other more detailed info we'd like to note:

Vote Count vs Polls
The vote count slowly takes over the polls in our live projection, very slowly at first (as the early numbers may be all over the place), but as we get more of the total vote in, the vote count will take over. The chart below shows about how much of our projection is votes at each reporting level:

% Reporting % of Projection That Is Votes
10% 0.4%
20% 1.4%
30% 3.9%
40% 9.3%
50% 19.6%
60% 35.7%
70% 55.1%
80% 72.7%
90% 85%

Calling States
A state isn't 'called' in our projections until a TV network calls it. If a state wasn't 'Safe' before the election, the live election night projection will max out at a 99.9% probability until it's actually called.




Original Forecast

If Election Today more aggressive + 2016 Polling Error assumes same polling errors
A super simple, state poll based projection model for the 2020 Presidential election. Learn More


Win Probability

Biden
Trump
Biden
95.2%
335 Electoral Votes
Trump
4.7%
203 Electoral Votes
95.2%
4.7%
NE Districts
01 02 03
ME Districts
01 02
;



Electoral College Votes

Biden 335
335
335.3
351
Trump 203
203
202.7
187


Electoral Votes Over Time



Electoral College Simulations





States

Biden
State Republican Democrat Diff Change from
2016 Results
Tipping % Projection EC
Safe D District of Columbia (3) 8.8% 90.1% +81.3% +5.1% 100% 3
Massachusetts (11) 29.4% 64% +34.6% +7.4% 100% 14
Vermont (3) 30.9% 65.2% +34.3% +7.9% 100% 17
Hawaii (4) 32.2% 62.6% +30.4% +1.8% 100% 21
Maryland (10) 32.8% 62.2% +29.4% +3% 100% 31
California (55) 32.8% 60.6% +27.8% +2.3% 100% 86
New York (29) 33.4% 61.2% +27.8% +5.3% 100% 115
Rhode Island (4) 37.4% 60.8% +23.4% +7.9% 100% 119
Connecticut (7) 34.5% 57.3% +22.8% +9.2% 100% 126
Washington (12) 36.7% 58.4% +21.7% +6% 100% 138
Maine CD-1 (1) 37% 57.1% +20.1% +12.2% 100% 139
New Jersey (14) 38.3% 57.5% +19.2% +5.2% 100% 153
Oregon (7) 39.9% 57.8% +17.9% +6.9% 100% 160
Delaware (3) 40.6% 57.9% +17.3% +5.9% 100% 163
Illinois (20) 40.4% 54.7% +14.3% +2.8% 100% 183
Colorado (9) 41% 53.2% +12.2% +7.3% 1.1% 100% 192
Maine (2) 41.1% 52.7% +11.6% +8.6% 0.3% 100% 194
New Mexico (5) 42.3% 53.8% +11.5% +3.3% 0.9% 100% 199
Virginia (13) 42.1% 53.1% +11% +5.7% 2.5% 100% 212
New Hampshire (4) 43.7% 52.7% +9% +8.6% 1.6% 99.4% 216
Minnesota (10) 42.5% 51% +8.5% +7% 3.2% 98.5% 226
Wisconsin (10) 44.1% 51.4% +7.3% +8.1% 4.5% 98% 236
Likely D Michigan (16) 43.6% 50.6% +7% +7.2% 5.5% 96.8% 252
Pennsylvania (20) Tipping Point 45.6% 50.2% +4.6% +5.3% 52.5% 89.4% 272
Nevada (6) 44.8% 49.4% +4.6% +3.1% 2.4% 84.8% 278
Lean D Florida (29) 46.8% 49% +2.2% +3.4% 9.8% 69.7% 307
Nebraska CD-2 (1) 45.8% 50% +4.2% +6.4% 0.3% 67.5% 308
Toss Up Arizona (11) 46.2% 48.5% +2.3% +5.8% 3.1% 59.6% 319
North Carolina (15) 47.1% 48.7% +1.6% +5.3% 3.7% 59.3% 334
Maine CD-2 (1) 46.2% 48.3% +2.1% +12.4% 0.1% 55.6% 335
Georgia (16) 47.6% 47.8% +0.2% +5.3% 2.9% 56.6% 203
Iowa (6) 47.5% 46.8% +0.7% +8.7% 1.1% 56.9% 187
Ohio (18) 48% 46.7% +1.3% +6.8% 2.5% 64.4% 181
Lean R Nebraska CD-1 (1) 47.9% 46.1% +1.8% +18.9% 0.1% 77.3% 163
Texas (38) 48.6% 47.1% +1.5% +7.5% 1.8% 78.6% 162
Safe R Alaska (3) 51% 42.7% +8.3% +6.4% 0.1% 98.2% 124
Montana (3) 51.1% 44.5% +6.6% +13.8% 100% 121
South Carolina (9) 51.6% 43.8% +7.8% +6.5% 100% 118
Missouri (10) 52.8% 43.4% +9.4% +9.2% 100% 109
Indiana (11) 53% 41.8% +11.2% +7.7% 100% 99
Utah (6) 52.9% 40.8% +12.1% +6% 100% 88
Kansas (6) 53.6% 41% +12.6% +8% 100% 82
Tennessee (11) 57.6% 40.9% +16.7% +9.3% 100% 76
Nebraska (2) 57.7% 40.6% +17.1% +8% 100% 65
Kentucky (8) 56.8% 39% +17.8% +12% 100% 63
Mississippi (6) 57.8% 38.9% +18.9% +1.1% 100% 55
South Dakota (3) 57.2% 37.6% +19.6% +10.2% 100% 49
Alabama (9) 58% 37.5% +20.5% +7.2% 100% 46
North Dakota (3) 59.3% 36.5% +22.8% +12.9% 100% 37
Louisiana (8) 59.9% 35.6% +24.3% +4.7% 100% 34
Idaho (4) 61.5% 36.5% +25% +6.8% 100% 26
Arkansas (6) 62.5% 34% +28.5% +1.6% 100% 22
Oklahoma (7) 63.1% 34.2% +28.9% +7.5% 100% 16
West Virginia (5) 63.1% 33.6% +29.5% +12.6% 100% 9
Wyoming (3) 65.5% 30.7% +34.8% +11% 100% 4
Nebraska CD-3 (1) 73.9% 19.7% +54.2% +0% 100% 1
Total 43.5%
203 Electoral Votes
51.5%
335 Electoral Votes
D +8%
D +132 Electoral Votes
+5.9%
+209 Electoral Votes
95.2% 335
 
Clinton (2016) - Polls on Election Day
State Republican Democrat Diff Change from
2020 Polls
Tipping % Projection EC
Safe D District of Columbia (3) 14% 73.3% +59.3% +22% 100% 3
Vermont (3) 25.1% 54.5% +29.4% +4.9% 100% 6
California (55) 31.4% 56.2% +24.8% +3% 100% 61
Massachusetts (11) 30.8% 54% +23.2% +11.4% 100% 72
Maryland (10) 32% 55% +23% +6.4% 100% 82
Hawaii (4) 31.4% 50.9% +19.5% +10.9% 100% 86
New York (29) 34.4% 52.3% +17.9% +9.9% 100% 115
Illinois (20) 36.3% 49.7% +13.4% +0.9% 100% 135
Rhode Island (4) 35.5% 49% +13.5% +9.9% 99.8% 139
Washington (12) 36.3% 48.6% +12.3% +9.4% 98.9% 151
New Jersey (14) 37.5% 48.9% +11.4% +7.8% 98.7% 165
Likely D Connecticut (7) 38.2% 48.6% +10.4% +12.4% 97.3% 172
Oregon (7) 36.5% 47.2% +10.7% +7.2% 95.3% 179
Maine CD-1 (1) 37.9% 49.5% +11.6% +8.5% 95% 180
Delaware (3) 36.8% 46.9% +10.1% +7.2% 93.7% 183
Maine (2) 37% 46.4% +9.4% +2.2% 91.9% 185
Virginia (13) 40.5% 46.7% +6.2% +4.8% 85.3% 198
Wisconsin (10) 40.2% 46% +5.8% +1.5% 82.2% 208
New Mexico (5) 36.7% 43.5% +6.8% +4.7% 81% 213
Lean D Colorado (9) 39.5% 44.6% +5.1% +7.1% 76.5% 222
Minnesota (10) 37.1% 42.8% +5.7% +2.8% 76% 232
New Hampshire (4) 41% 45.1% +4.1% +4.9% 72.9% 236
Pennsylvania (20) 43.3% 46.3% +3% +1.6% 70.2% 256
Michigan (16) Tipping Point 41% 44.1% +3.1% +3.9% 67.4% 272
Toss Up Nevada (6) 43.4% 44.1% +0.7% +3.9% 54.4% 278
North Carolina (15) 45.3% 45.9% +0.6% +1% 54.3% 293
Florida (29) 46% 45.9% +0.1% +2.3% 50.4% 245
Maine CD-2 (1) 42.6% 40.7% +1.9% +4% 58.5% 216
Ohio (18) 44.7% 43.3% +1.4% +0.1% 59% 215
Arizona (11) 44.6% 42.7% +1.9% +4.2% 61.9% 197
Iowa (6) 43.4% 41.2% +2.2% +1.5% 62.2% 186
Lean R Utah (6) 36.5% 28% +8.5% +3.6% 75.6% 180
Likely R Nebraska CD-2 (1) 48.3% 40.8% +7.5% +11.7% 80.7% 174
Georgia (16) 47.8% 42.6% +5.2% +5.4% 84.1% 173
Alaska (3) 44.6% 36.4% +8.2% +0.1% 86.3% 157
Kansas (6) 46.8% 38.1% +8.7% +3.9% 91.3% 154
Missouri (10) 47.4% 39% +8.4% +1% 92.3% 148
South Carolina (9) 48.4% 40.5% +7.9% +0.1% 93.1% 138
Indiana (11) 48.2% 37.4% +10.8% +0.4% 97.1% 129
Texas (38) 48.7% 38.2% +10.5% +9% 97.5% 118
Safe R Nebraska CD-1 (1) 50.7% 27.4% +23.3% +21.5% 99% 80
Montana (3) 48.2% 33.4% +14.8% +8.2% 99.7% 79
Tennessee (11) 49.6% 36.2% +13.4% +3.3% 100% 76
Arkansas (6) 51.9% 35% +16.9% +11.6% 100% 65
South Dakota (3) 49.3% 31.6% +17.7% +1.9% 100% 59
Mississippi (6) 53.5% 35.6% +17.9% +1% 100% 56
Nebraska (2) 50.4% 32.5% +17.9% +0.8% 100% 50
Kentucky (8) 53.4% 35.2% +18.2% +0.4% 100% 48
Idaho (4) 48.6% 29.6% +19% +6% 100% 40
Louisiana (8) 53.7% 34.6% +19.1% +5.2% 100% 36
Oklahoma (7) 54.4% 31.4% +23% +5.9% 100% 28
Alabama (9) 57.1% 33.2% +23.9% +3.4% 100% 21
North Dakota (3) 52.8% 28.5% +24.3% +1.5% 100% 12
West Virginia (5) 57.1% 31.4% +25.7% +3.8% 100% 9
Wyoming (3) 59.2% 25.2% +34% +0.8% 100% 4
Nebraska CD-3 (1) 62.8% 18.4% +44.4% +9.8% 100% 1
Total 42.3%
245 Electoral Votes
45.2%
293 Electoral Votes
D +2.9%
D +48 Electoral Votes
+5.1% 74.4% 293
 



Change from 2016

Here we see how each state currently compares to 2016 (both the 2016 polling and results).

The thick line the arrows are pointing to marks the current 2020 polling. The smaller, lighter lines are the 2016 polling/results.
The bar and arrow between them shows how the numbers have swung. The bar/arrow will be blue if it's now more Democratic or red it it's more Republican.
More blue bars means the country has swung more Democratic, more red bars means it's more Republican.

You can click '2016 Polls' or '2020 Results' just below this to toggle them on/off for a clearer view.

For context, in 2016 the average difference between the result and the polls R+3.5%. In the swing states that average was R+2.3%.
The average swing from 2012 to 2016 was R+4.1%. In the swing states that average was R+4.4%.




Polls

National Polling Average

 
51.5%
Biden (+8%)
43.5%
Trump