If Election Today more aggressive + 2016 Polling Error assumes same polling errors
A super simple, state poll based projection model for the 2020 Presidential election. Learn More


Win Probability
(with same polling errors as 2016)

This version of the model assumes every state has the same polling error (polls on election day vs actual result) as it did in 2016.

Biden
Trump
Biden
74.7%
298 Electoral Votes
Trump
22.6%
240 Electoral Votes
74.7%
22.6%
NE Districts
01 02 03
ME Districts
01 02
;



Electoral College Votes

Biden 298
298
304.8
374
Trump 240
240
233.1
164


Electoral Votes Over Time



Electoral College Simulations





States

Biden
State Republican Democrat Diff 2016 Polling
Error Adjustment
Change from
2016 Results
Tipping % Projection EC
Safe D District of Columbia (3) -1.5% 99.6% +101.1% +27.1% +14.7% 100% 3
Hawaii (4) 25.2% 68.4% +43.2% +12.7% +11% 100% 7
Massachusetts (11) 27.6% 66.7% +39.1% +4.1% +11.9% 100% 18
Rhode Island (4) 32.4% 66.6% +34.2% +2% +18.7% 100% 22
California (55) 29.1% 63.1% +34% +5.3% +3.9% 100% 77
New York (29) 29.6% 63% +33.4% +4.5% +10.9% 100% 106
Maryland (10) 31% 62% +31% +3.5% +4.6% 100% 116
Vermont (3) 34.8% 60.9% +26.1% +3% +0.3% 100% 119
Washington (12) 34.2% 59.5% +25.3% +3.4% +9.6% 100% 131
Connecticut (7) 34.4% 59.6% +25.2% +3.3% +11.6% 100% 138
Delaware (3) 37.4% 60.1% +22.7% +1.3% +11.3% 100% 141
New Jersey (14) 36% 56.7% +20.7% +2.6% +6.7% 100% 155
Maine CD-1 (1) 35.7% 55.3% +19.6% +3.7% +11.7% 100% 156
Oregon (7) 39.5% 57.2% +17.7% +0.3% +6.7% 100% 163
Illinois (20) 39.7% 56.2% +16.5% +3.6% +0.6% 100% 183
New Mexico (5) 41.4% 53.9% +12.5% +1.5% +4.3% 100% 188
Colorado (9) 40.3% 52.7% +12.4% +0.2% +7.5% 1% 100% 197
Likely D Nebraska CD-2 (1) 39.8% 52.9% +13.1% +5.2% +15.3% 95% 198
Virginia (13) 42.6% 51.6% +9% +0.9% +3.7% 3% 93% 211
Nevada (6) 42.7% 49.6% +6.9% +0.7% +5.4% 2% 87% 217
Lean D Michigan (16) 44.6% 48.8% +4.2% +3.3% +4.4% 6% 78% 233
Maine (2) 43% 49.8% +6.8% +6.5% +3.8% 2% 78% 235
New Hampshire (4) 45.3% 50.4% +5.1% +3.7% +4.7% 3% 75% 239
Minnesota (10) 43.8% 48.2% +4.4% +4.2% +2.9% 6% 74% 249
Toss Up Pennsylvania (20) 46.7% 48.4% +1.7% +3.7% +2.4% 31% 63% 269
Florida (29) Tipping Point 47.4% 48.3% +0.9% +1.1% +2.1% 21% 55% 298
Arizona (11) 46.5% 47.6% +1.1% +1.7% +4.6% 4% 50%
Georgia (16) 46.9% 47.7% +0.8% +0.1% +5.9% 6% 52% 240
Wisconsin (10) 47.4% 47.5% +0.1% +6.5% +0.9% 3% 54% 224
Nebraska CD-1 (1) 46.6% 47.5% +0.9% +2.7% +21.6% 63% 214
Texas (38) 47% 47.3% +0.3% +1.5% +9.3% 10% 63% 213
Lean R North Carolina (15) 48.9% 46.7% +2.2% +4.2% +1.5% 3% 75% 175
Likely R Maine CD-2 (1) 49.2% 42.4% +6.8% +8.4% +3.5% 86% 160
Iowa (6) 50.3% 43.6% +6.7% +7.3% +2.7% 96% 159
Safe R Ohio (18) 50.9% 43.3% +7.6% +6.7% +0.5% 99% 153
Montana (3) 53.5% 41.7% +11.8% +5.6% +8.6% 100% 135
Alaska (3) 52.3% 39.9% +12.4% +6.5% +2.3% 100% 132
South Carolina (9) 54.1% 40.4% +13.7% +6.3% +0.6% 100% 129
Indiana (11) 54.8% 37.1% +17.7% +8% +1.2% 100% 120
Missouri (10) 57.5% 39.3% +18.2% +10.3% +0.4% 100% 109
Nebraska (2) 58.4% 39.7% +18.7% +7.2% +6.4% 100% 99
Mississippi (6) 57.9% 39.1% +18.8% +0.1% +1% 100% 97
Utah (6) 56.3% 34.6% +21.7% +9.5% +3.6% 100% 91
Louisiana (8) 58.4% 35.9% +22.5% +0.5% +2.9% 100% 85
Kansas (6) 58.1% 35.2% +22.9% +11.9% +2.3% 100% 77
South Dakota (3) 59% 34.5% +24.5% +12.2% +5.3% 100% 71
Alabama (9) 59.9% 35.4% +24.5% +3.8% +3.2% 100% 68
Kentucky (8) 62.3% 33.2% +29.1% +11.6% +0.7% 100% 59
Tennessee (11) 64.6% 33% +31.6% +12.6% +5.6% 100% 51
North Dakota (3) 63% 31% +32% +11.5% +3.7% 100% 40
Arkansas (6) 64.9% 29.5% +35.4% +10% +8.5% 100% 37
Idaho (4) 66.6% 31% +35.6% +12.8% +3.8% 100% 31
Oklahoma (7) 66.8% 29.4% +37.4% +13.4% +1% 100% 27
West Virginia (5) 67.7% 28% +39.7% +16.5% +2.4% 100% 20
Wyoming (3) 75.5% 22.6% +52.9% +11.8% +7.1% 100% 15
Nebraska CD-3 (1) 73.9% 19.7% +54.2% - +0% 100% 12
Total 43.3%
240 Electoral Votes
51.1%
298 Electoral Votes
D +7.8%
D +58 Electoral Votes
+5.7%
+135 Electoral Votes
74.7% 298
 
Clinton (2016) - Polls on 10/27
State Republican Democrat Diff Change from
2020 Polls
Tipping % Projection EC
Safe D District of Columbia (3) 5% 83.7% +78.7% +22.4% 100% 3
Hawaii (4) 26.8% 59% +32.2% +11% 100% 7
California (55) 28.9% 59% +30.1% +3.9% 100% 62
Massachusetts (11) 28.2% 57.3% +29.1% +10% 100% 73
Maryland (10) 30.1% 56.7% +26.6% +4.4% 100% 83
Vermont (3) 27.2% 53.8% +26.6% +0.5% 100% 86
New York (29) 32% 54.1% +22.1% +11.3% 100% 115
Illinois (20) 33.9% 51.7% +17.8% +1.3% 100% 135
Washington (12) 34.7% 50.7% +16% +9.3% 100% 147
Rhode Island (4) 36.1% 51.7% +15.6% +18.6% 100% 151
Connecticut (7) 36.6% 51% +14.4% +10.8% 100% 158
New Jersey (14) 36.3% 49.9% +13.6% +7.1% 100% 172
Likely D Oregon (7) 36.7% 48% +11.3% +6.4% 96% 179
Delaware (3) 36.7% 46.3% +9.6% +13.1% 90% 182
New Mexico (5) 34.6% 45.2% +10.6% +1.9% 89% 187
Maine CD-1 (1) 39.6% 47.8% +8.2% +11.4% 85% 188
Virginia (13) 40.8% 46.5% +5.7% +3.3% 81% 201
Lean D Colorado (9) 39.6% 44.7% +5.1% +7.3% 76% 210
Toss Up Nevada (6) 43% 44.4% +1.4% +5.5% 58% 216
Maine (2) 41.9% 43.3% +1.4% +5.4% 57% 218
Minnesota (10) 39.7% 41.1% +1.4% +3% 56% 228
New Hampshire (4) 42.7% 43.6% +0.9% +4.2% 55% 232
Michigan (16) 41.8% 42.5% +0.7% +3.5% 53% 248
Pennsylvania (20) 44.9% 44.5% +0.4% +2.1% 52% 290
Wisconsin (10) Tipping Point 43.6% 42.5% +1.1% +1.2% 57% 270
Nebraska CD-2 (1) 45.7% 43.4% +2.3% +15.4% 59% 260
Florida (29) 46.6% 45% +1.6% +2.5% 61% 259
Lean R Arizona (11) 44.9% 42% +2.9% +4% 66% 230
North Carolina (15) 47.6% 43.3% +4.3% +2.1% 78% 219
Likely R Maine CD-2 (1) 46.8% 36.4% +10.4% +3.6% 89% 204
Iowa (6) 46.7% 38.2% +8.5% +1.8% 89% 203
Georgia (16) 48.5% 41.2% +7.3% +8.1% 90% 197
Utah (6) 40.6% 24.2% +16.4% +5.3% 91% 181
Ohio (18) 48.5% 39.5% +9% +1.4% 93% 175
Alaska (3) 46.6% 34.8% +11.8% +0.6% 94% 157
Nebraska CD-1 (1) 49.4% 28.7% +20.7% +21.6% 95% 154
Texas (38) 48.8% 38.6% +10.2% +10.5% 96% 153
Safe R South Carolina (9) 52.3% 36.6% +15.7% +2% 100% 115
Indiana (11) 51.1% 34.4% +16.7% +1% 100% 106
Kansas (6) 50.9% 33.7% +17.2% +5.7% 100% 95
Missouri (10) 52.3% 34.1% +18.2% +0% 100% 89
Mississippi (6) 54.4% 35.7% +18.7% +0.1% 100% 79
Montana (3) 50.9% 31.3% +19.6% +7.8% 100% 73
Louisiana (8) 54.4% 34.7% +19.7% +2.8% 100% 70
Nebraska (2) 53.9% 29.3% +24.6% +5.9% 100% 62
Arkansas (6) 56.1% 31.1% +25% +10.4% 100% 60
Tennessee (11) 56.1% 28.9% +27.2% +4.4% 100% 54
Kentucky (8) 58% 30% +28% +1.1% 100% 43
South Dakota (3) 55.6% 26.6% +29% +4.5% 100% 35
Alabama (9) 60.1% 30.1% +30% +5.5% 100% 32
Idaho (4) 56.1% 23.2% +32.9% +2.7% 100% 23
Oklahoma (7) 59.7% 26.1% +33.6% +3.8% 100% 19
North Dakota (3) 58.9% 23.2% +35.7% +3.7% 100% 12
West Virginia (5) 65.1% 24.4% +40.7% +1% 100% 9
Wyoming (3) 65.7% 20% +45.7% +7.2% 100% 4
Nebraska CD-3 (1) 67.7% 13.5% +54.2% - 100% 1
Total 43%
290 Electoral Votes
44.5%
248 Electoral Votes
D +1.5%
R +42 Electoral Votes
+6.3% 58.6% 290
 
Clinton (2016) - Polls on Election Day
State Republican Democrat Diff Change from
2020 Polls
Tipping % Projection EC
Safe D Wyoming (3) 65.1% 19.3% +45.8% +7.1% 100% 306
Nebraska CD-2 (1) 45.7% 43.4% +2.3% +15.4% 60% 303
District of Columbia (3) 0.4% 86.9% +86.5% +14.6% 100% 3
North Dakota (3) 58.6% 22.8% +35.8% +3.8% 100% 302
Delaware (3) 36.2% 47.6% +11.4% +11.3% 96% 6
Nebraska CD-3 (1) 67.7% 13.5% +54.2% - 100% 299
Nebraska CD-1 (1) 49.4% 28.7% +20.7% +21.6% 96% 298
Rhode Island (4) 34.5% 50% +15.5% +18.7% 100% 10
Maine CD-2 (1) 46.8% 36.5% +10.3% +3.5% 88% 297
Maine CD-1 (1) 39.8% 47.7% +7.9% +11.7% 84% 11
Hawaii (4) 25.1% 57.3% +32.2% +11% 100% 15
Montana (3) 51% 30.6% +20.4% +8.6% 100% 296
Likely D South Dakota (3) 55.4% 25.6% +29.8% +5.3% 100% 293
West Virginia (5) 65.3% 23.2% +42.1% +2.4% 100% 290
Mississippi (6) 53.5% 35.7% +17.8% +1% 100% 285
Idaho (4) 55% 23.2% +31.8% +3.8% 100% 279
Vermont (3) 26.6% 53% +26.4% +0.3% 100% 18
Lean D Alaska (3) 47.9% 33.2% +14.7% +2.3% 99% 275
Arkansas (6) 56.9% 30% +26.9% +8.5% 100% 272
Toss Up Maine (2) 40.3% 43.2% +2.9% +3.9% 65% 20
Louisiana (8) 54% 34.4% +19.6% +2.9% 100% 266
Nebraska (2) 54% 28.9% +25.1% +6.4% 100% 258
Alabama (9) 59% 31.3% +27.7% +3.2% 100% 256
Maryland (10) 30.3% 56.7% +26.4% +4.6% 100% 30
Oklahoma (7) 61.1% 24.7% +36.4% +1% 100% 247
Minnesota (10) 39.2% 40.7% +1.5% +2.9% 57% 40
Kentucky (8) 59.2% 29.4% +29.8% +0.7% 100% 240
Lean R Kansas (6) 52.8% 32.2% +20.6% +2.3% 100% 232
New Jersey (14) 36.2% 50.2% +14% +6.7% 100% 54
Likely R Massachusetts (11) 28.8% 56% +27.2% +11.9% 100% 65
Connecticut (7) 36.6% 50.3% +13.7% +11.5% 100% 72
Tennessee (11) 55.9% 29.9% +26% +5.6% 100% 226
Indiana (11) 52.3% 33.4% +18.9% +1.2% 100% 215
Illinois (20) 34.5% 51.5% +17% +0.5% 100% 92
Utah (6) 41.3% 23.3% +18% +3.7% 94% 204
Texas (38) 48% 39% +9% +9.3% 94% 198
Safe R Washington (12) 34.6% 50.3% +15.7% +9.6% 100% 104
California (55) Tipping Point 28.8% 58.9% +30.1% +3.9% 100% 159
Colorado (9) 39.6% 44.5% +4.9% +7.5% 76% 168
Nevada (6) 43% 44.5% +1.5% +5.4% 59% 174
Arizona (11) 45.5% 41.9% +3.6% +4.7% 72% 160
New Hampshire (4) 42.9% 43.3% +0.4% +4.7% 53% 178
Missouri (10) 52.6% 33.9% +18.7% +0.5% 100% 149
Pennsylvania (20) 45.2% 44.5% +0.7% +2.4% 55% 139
Michigan (16) 42.7% 42.5% +0.2% +4.4% 51% 119
New York (29) 32.1% 54.6% +22.5% +10.9% 100% 207
South Carolina (9) 51.6% 37.4% +14.2% +0.5% 100% 103
Ohio (18) 48.1% 40% +8.1% +0.5% 93% 94
Oregon (7) 36.4% 47.4% +11% +6.7% 96% 214
Florida (29) 46.6% 45.4% +1.2% +2.1% 59% 76
Georgia (16) 47.8% 42.6% +5.2% +6% 84% 47
North Carolina (15) 47.4% 43.8% +3.6% +1.4% 76% 31
Wisconsin (10) 43.5% 42.8% +0.7% +0.8% 54% 16
Iowa (6) 47.1% 37.6% +9.5% +2.8% 93% 6
Virginia (13) 41% 46.3% +5.3% +3.7% 80% 227
New Mexico (5) 36% 44.3% +8.3% +4.2% 85% 232
Total 42.7%
306 Electoral Votes
44.8%
232 Electoral Votes
D +2.1%
R +74 Electoral Votes
+5.7% 57.8% 306
 



Change from 2016

Here we see how each state currently compares to 2016 (both the 2016 polling and results).

The thick line the arrows are pointing to marks the current 2020 polling. The smaller, lighter lines are the 2016 polling/results.
The bar and arrow between them shows how the numbers have swung. The bar/arrow will be blue if it's now more Democratic or red it it's more Republican.
More blue bars means the country has swung more Democratic, more red bars means it's more Republican.

You can click '2016 Polls' or '2020 Results' just below this to toggle them on/off for a clearer view.




Polls

National Polling Average

 
51.1%
Biden (+7.8%)
43.3%
Trump
 




Updates

Last Updated: 10/27 8:04 PM EDT
10/27
Mississippi polls jumped 8.2% toward Biden (was R+27%, now R+18.8%)
California polls jumped 2.5% toward Biden (was D+31.5%, now D+34%)
10/26
Wisconsin polling average leader changed to Biden (+0.1%)
Maryland polls jumped 1.8% toward Trump (was D+33%, now D+31.2%)
10/25
South Dakota polls jumped 2.4% toward Biden (was R+26.7%, now R+24.3%)
Pennsylvania changed from Lean Biden to Toss Up
10/23
Pennsylvania changed from Toss Up to Lean Biden
Arizona projected winner changed to Trump (52.8% chance of winning)
West Virginia polls jumped 2.1% toward Biden (was R+41.6%, now R+39.5%)
10/22
Ohio changed from Likely Trump to Safe Trump
Texas polling average leader changed to Biden (+0.2%)
Kansas polls jumped 1.5% toward Biden (was R+24.2%, now R+22.7%)







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