Live Election Night Forecast

This is how election night went in 2020. We've stopped updating it, but may include state calls as they come.
Use the History area on the left to look at what the forecast showed at specific times in the evening.
Check out the States section to see state level polling errors and swings from 2016.
You can also checkout our Pollsters area to see how different pollsters did in 2020. Last Updated 12/10 11:48 AM EST

Biden

If Election Today

Trump

If Election Today

270
|
|
|
|
|

306

Electoral Votes

232

Electoral Votes

100% Chance of Winning

History

5:50 PM 6:24 PM 6:36 PM 6:48 PM 6:58 PM 7:09 PM 7:14 PM 7:19 PM 7:24 PM 7:29 PM 7:34 PM 7:39 PM 7:44 PM 7:49 PM 7:54 PM 7:59 PM 8:04 PM 8:09 PM 8:14 PM 8:19 PM 8:24 PM 8:29 PM 8:34 PM 8:39 PM 8:44 PM 8:49 PM 8:54 PM 8:59 PM 9:04 PM 9:09 PM 9:14 PM 9:19 PM 9:24 PM 9:29 PM 9:34 PM 9:39 PM 9:44 PM 9:49 PM 9:54 PM 9:59 PM 10:04 PM 10:09 PM 10:14 PM 10:19 PM 10:24 PM 10:29 PM 10:34 PM 10:39 PM 10:44 PM 10:49 PM 10:54 PM 10:59 PM 11:04 PM 11:09 PM 11:14 PM 11:24 PM 11:35 PM 11:44 PM 11:54 PM 12:04 AM 12:14 AM 12:24 AM 12:30 AM 12:40 AM 12:50 AM 1:00 AM 1:06 AM 1:16 AM 1:26 AM 1:34 AM 1:44 AM 1:54 AM 2:04 AM 2:12 AM 2:22 AM 2:32 AM 2:42 AM 2:52 AM 3:02 AM 3:12 AM 3:22 AM 3:32 AM 3:42 AM 3:52 AM 4:02 AM 4:12 AM 4:22 AM 4:32 AM 4:42 AM 4:58 AM 5:08 AM 5:18 AM 5:30 AM 5:40 AM 5:50 AM 6:00 AM 6:10 AM 6:32 AM 6:38 AM 6:56 AM 7:14 AM 7:46 AM 8:12 AM 8:56 AM 9:08 AM 9:24 AM 9:46 AM 10:02 AM 10:16 AM 10:26 AM 10:38 AM 10:48 AM 11:04 AM 11:18 AM 11:28 AM 11:38 AM 11:54 AM 12:04 PM 12:14 PM 12:28 PM 12:42 PM 12:52 PM 1:04 PM 1:18 PM 1:30 PM 1:42 PM 1:56 PM 2:08 PM 2:16 PM 2:28 PM 2:38 PM 2:48 PM 3:04 PM 3:14 PM 3:24 PM 3:34 PM 3:44 PM 3:54 PM 4:06 PM 4:18 PM 4:28 PM 4:42 PM 4:52 PM 5:02 PM 5:12 PM 5:24 PM 5:34 PM 5:44 PM 5:58 PM 6:10 PM 6:22 PM 6:32 PM 6:42 PM 6:52 PM 6:58 PM 7:10 PM 7:22 PM 7:32 PM 7:44 PM 7:56 PM 8:06 PM 8:20 PM 8:34 PM 8:50 PM 9:18 PM 9:36 PM 9:56 PM 10:14 PM 10:38 PM 10:48 PM 10:58 PM 11:10 PM 11:30 PM 11:56 PM 12:26 AM 1:08 AM 5:56 AM 8:32 AM 9:00 AM 9:28 AM 9:48 AM 10:10 AM 10:24 AM 10:50 AM 11:08 AM 11:30 AM 11:44 AM 11:56 AM 12:12 PM 12:22 PM 12:38 PM 12:56 PM 1:14 PM 1:28 PM 1:52 PM 2:16 PM 2:28 PM 2:40 PM 2:56 PM 3:08 PM 3:18 PM 3:30 PM 3:42 PM 3:52 PM 4:02 PM 4:12 PM 4:22 PM 4:32 PM 4:44 PM 4:54 PM 5:04 PM 5:20 PM 5:30 PM 5:46 PM 5:56 PM 6:12 PM 6:42 PM 7:00 PM 7:16 PM 7:32 PM 7:48 PM 8:00 PM 8:24 PM 8:38 PM 9:00 PM 9:18 PM 9:58 PM 10:28 PM 10:44 PM 11:08 PM 11:52 PM 1:42 AM 6:02 AM 8:34 AM 8:52 AM 9:20 AM 9:50 AM 10:02 AM 10:26 AM 10:42 AM 10:52 AM 11:12 AM 11:34 AM 11:48 AM 12:04 PM 12:20 PM 12:32 PM 12:48 PM 1:04 PM 1:16 PM 1:28 PM 1:44 PM 1:54 PM 2:06 PM 2:18 PM 2:30 PM 2:46 PM 3:00 PM 3:12 PM 3:22 PM 3:32 PM 3:46 PM 3:56 PM 4:08 PM 4:18 PM 4:30 PM 4:40 PM 4:52 PM 5:02 PM 5:14 PM 5:24 PM 5:34 PM 5:52 PM 6:06 PM 6:16 PM 6:30 PM 6:42 PM 6:56 PM 7:16 PM 7:30 PM 7:42 PM 8:00 PM 8:12 PM 8:28 PM 8:42 PM 9:08 PM 9:36 PM 10:12 PM 10:42 PM 12:14 AM 12:38 AM 2:46 AM 6:16 AM 9:00 AM 9:02 AM 9:04 AM 9:20 AM 9:50 AM 9:58 AM 10:00 AM 10:02 AM 10:10 AM 10:12 AM 10:20 AM 10:30 AM 10:32 AM 10:38 AM 10:40 AM 10:50 AM 10:54 AM 11:04 AM 11:24 AM 11:26 AM 11:30 AM 12:00 PM 12:06 PM 12:12 PM 12:16 PM 1:06 PM 1:16 PM 11:56 AM 11:59 AM 1:06 PM 12:00 AM 11:26 AM 5:16 PM 12:36 PM 10:51 AM 3:29 PM 1:17 PM 12:03 PM 11:46 AM 12:28 PM 9:00 PM 9:02 PM 2:56 PM 10:31 AM 9:11 AM 9:21 AM 10:26 AM 10:26 AM 10:35 AM 2:58 PM 4:33 PM 2:09 PM 11:31 PM 11:45 PM 10:43 AM 11:48 AM

The lighter states haven't been called yet, but are shaded based upon our projection.
The darker states have been called.

NE Districts

01 02 03

ME Districts

01 02

Called States

Alabama (9)

Winner

Trump

Alaska (3)

Winner

Trump

Arizona (11)

Winner

Biden

Arkansas (6)

Winner

Trump

California (55)

Winner

Biden

Colorado (9)

Winner

Biden

Connecticut (7)

Winner

Biden

Delaware (3)

Winner

Biden

District of Columbia (3)

Winner

Biden

Florida (29)

Winner

Trump

Georgia (16)

Winner

Biden

Hawaii (4)

Winner

Biden

Idaho (4)

Winner

Trump

Illinois (20)

Winner

Biden

Indiana (11)

Winner

Trump

Iowa (6)

Winner

Trump

Kansas (6)

Winner

Trump

Kentucky (8)

Winner

Trump

Louisiana (8)

Winner

Trump

Maine (2)

Winner

Biden

Maine CD-1 (1)

Winner

Biden

Maine CD-2 (1)

Winner

Trump

Maryland (10)

Winner

Biden

Massachusetts (11)

Winner

Biden

Michigan (16)

Winner

Biden

Minnesota (10)

Winner

Biden

Mississippi (6)

Winner

Trump

Missouri (10)

Winner

Trump

Montana (3)

Winner

Trump

Nebraska (2)

Winner

Trump

Nebraska CD-1 (1)

Winner

Trump

Nebraska CD-2 (1)

Winner

Biden

Nebraska CD-3 (1)

Winner

Trump

Nevada (6)

Winner

Biden

New Hampshire (4)

Winner

Biden

New Jersey (14)

Winner

Biden

New Mexico (5)

Winner

Biden

New York (29)

Winner

Biden

North Carolina (15)

Winner

Trump

North Dakota (3)

Winner

Trump

Ohio (18)

Winner

Trump

Oklahoma (7)

Winner

Trump

Oregon (7)

Winner

Biden

Pennsylvania (20)

Winner

Biden

Rhode Island (4)

Winner

Biden

South Carolina (9)

Winner

Trump

South Dakota (3)

Winner

Trump

Tennessee (11)

Winner

Trump

Texas (38)

Winner

Trump

Utah (6)

Winner

Trump

Vermont (3)

Winner

Biden

Virginia (13)

Winner

Biden

Washington (12)

Winner

Biden

West Virginia (5)

Winner

Trump

Wisconsin (10)

Winner

Biden

Wyoming (3)

Winner

Trump

Election Night Forecast Changes

This is how the forecast has changed throughout the evening (and days?), all times are EST.

Latest Update

Tweets by electoralpolls

Electoral College Votes

Biden 306

Projection: 306

Estimated: 306

Polls: 351

Trump 232

Projection: 232

Estimated: 232

Polls: 187

Electoral College Simulations

Here are all the electoral college outcomes the forecast currently projects.
It's updated each time we update the live forecast.

Popular Vote

Here's how the popular vote leader has changed throughout the night.

Updates

We'll be posting updates & interesting tidbits on @electoralpolls

Tweets by electoralpolls

Tipping Point States

Which uncalled state will decide the election?

State	Projection	Tipping %

States

Here's a more detailed list of all the states, their current votes, their projection, how results compared to the polls (currently), and the change from 2016 (currently).

	State	Votes		Leader	Projection	%	Results v. Polls	Change from 2016
✓	District of Columbia (3)	92.1% 317,323	5.4% 18,586	+86.7% +298,737	100%	100%	D+5.5%	D+0.3%
✓	Vermont (3)	66.1% 242,820	30.7% 112,704	+35.4% +130,116	100%	100%	D+1.1%	D+9%
✓	Massachusetts (11)	65.6% 2,382,202	32.1% 1,167,202	+33.5% +1,215,000	100%	100%	R+1.1%	D+6.3%
✓	Maryland (10)	65.4% 1,985,023	32.2% 976,414	+33.2% +1,008,609	100%	100%	D+3.8%	D+6.8%
✓	Hawaii (4)	63.7% 366,130	34.3% 196,864	+29.4% +169,266	100%	100%	R+1%	R+2.8%
✓	California (55)	63.5% 11,109,764	34.3% 6,005,961	+29.2% +5,103,803	100%	100%	D+1.4%	R+0.9%
✓	New York (29)	60.9% 5,244,006	37.7% 3,250,230	+23.2% +1,993,776	100%	100%	R+4.6%	D+0.7%
✓	Maine CD-1 (1)	60% 263,358	37% 162,201	+23% +101,157	100%	96%	D+2.9%	D+15.1%
✓	Rhode Island (4)	59.4% 307,486	38.6% 199,922	+20.8% +107,564	100%	99%	R+2.6%	D+5.3%
✓	Connecticut (7)	59.2% 1,080,680	39.2% 715,291	+20% +365,389	100%	100%	R+2.8%	D+6.3%
✓	Washington (12)	58% 2,369,612	38.8% 1,584,651	+19.2% +784,961	100%	100%	R+2.5%	D+3.5%
✓	Delaware (3)	58.8% 296,268	39.8% 200,603	+19% +95,665	100%	100%	D+1.7%	D+7.6%
✓	Illinois (20)	57.5% 3,471,915	40.5% 2,446,891	+17% +1,025,024	100%	99%	D+2.7%	0%
✓	Oregon (7)	56.5% 1,340,383	40.4% 958,448	+16.1% +381,935	100%	100%	R+1.8%	D+5.1%
✓	New Jersey (14)	57.1% 2,608,335	41.3% 1,883,274	+15.8% +725,061	100%	100%	R+3.4%	D+1.8%
✓	Colorado (9)	55.4% 1,804,352	41.9% 1,364,607	+13.5% +439,745	100%	99%	D+1.3%	D+8.6%
✓	New Mexico (5)	54.3% 501,614	43.5% 401,894	+10.8% +99,720	100%	100%	R+0.7%	D+2.5%
✓	Virginia (13)	54.1% 2,413,568	44% 1,962,430	+10.1% +451,138	100%	100%	R+0.9%	D+4.8%
✓	Maine (2)	53% 435,072	44% 360,737	+9% +74,335	100%	100%	R+2.7%	D+6.1%
✓	New Hampshire (4)	52.8% 424,921	45.5% 365,654	+7.3% +59,267	100%	100%	R+1.7%	D+6.9%
✓	Minnesota (10)	52.4% 1,717,077	45.3% 1,484,065	+7.1% +233,012	100%	100%	R+1.4%	D+5.6%
✓	Nebraska CD-2 (1)	52.4% 175,800	45.5% 152,738	+6.9% +23,062	100%	100%	D+2.7%	D+9.2%
✓	Michigan (16)	50.6% 2,804,040	47.8% 2,649,852	+2.8% +154,188	100%	100%	R+4.2%	D+3%
✓	Nevada (6)	50.1% 703,486	47.7% 669,890	+2.4% +33,596	100%	100%	R+2.2%	D+0.9%
✓	Pennsylvania (20)	50% 3,459,923	48.8% 3,378,263	+1.2% +81,660	100%	100%	R+3.4%	D+1.9%
✓	Wisconsin (10) Tipping Point	49.5% 1,630,673	48.8% 1,610,065	+0.7% +20,608	100%	100%	R+6.6%	D+1.4%
✓	Arizona (11)	49.4% 1,672,143	49.1% 1,661,686	+0.3% +10,457	100%	100%	R+2%	D+3.9%
✓	Georgia (16)	49.5% 2,473,633	49.3% 2,461,854	+0.2% +11,779	100%	100%	0%	D+5.4%
✓	North Carolina (15)	48.6% 2,684,292	49.9% 2,758,773	+1.3% +74,481	100%	100%	R+2.9%	D+2.3%
✓	Florida (29)	47.9% 5,297,045	51.2% 5,668,731	+3.3% +371,686	100%	100%	R+5.5%	R+2.1%
✓	Texas (38)	46.5% 5,259,126	52% 5,890,347	+5.5% +631,221	100%	100%	R+4%	D+3.5%
✓	Maine CD-2 (1)	45% 156,906	51.7% 180,287	+6.7% +23,381	100%	71%	R+8.8%	D+3.6%
✓	Ohio (18)	45.2% 2,679,165	53.3% 3,154,834	+8.1% +475,669	100%	100%	R+6.8%	0%
✓	Iowa (6)	44.9% 759,061	53.1% 897,672	+8.2% +138,611	100%	100%	R+7.5%	D+1.3%
✓	Alaska (3)	42.8% 153,778	52.8% 189,951	+10% +36,173	100%	99%	R+1.7%	D+4.7%
✓	South Carolina (9)	43.4% 1,091,541	55.1% 1,385,103	+11.7% +293,562	100%	100%	R+3.9%	D+2.5%
✓	Kansas (6)	41.5% 570,323	56.1% 771,406	+14.6% +201,083	100%	100%	R+2%	D+6%
✓	Nebraska CD-1 (1)	41.4% 131,914	56.3% 179,408	+14.9% +47,494	100%	99%	R+13.1%	D+5.8%
✓	Missouri (10)	41.4% 1,253,014	56.8% 1,718,736	+15.4% +465,722	100%	100%	R+6%	D+3.3%
✓	Indiana (11)	41% 1,242,495	57% 1,729,852	+16% +487,357	100%	100%	R+4.8%	D+2.9%
✓	Montana (3)	40.4% 244,786	56.7% 343,602	+16.3% +98,816	100%	100%	R+9.7%	D+4.1%
✓	Mississippi (6)	41% 539,398	57.5% 756,764	+16.5% +217,366	100%	100%	D+2.4%	D+1.3%
✓	Louisiana (8)	39.9% 856,034	58.5% 1,255,776	+18.6% +399,742	100%	100%	D+5.7%	D+1%
✓	Nebraska (2)	39.3% 374,583	58.5% 556,846	+19.2% +182,263	100%	100%	R+2.1%	D+5.9%
✓	Utah (6)	37.6% 560,282	58.1% 865,140	+20.5% +304,858	100%	100%	R+8.4%	R+2.5%
✓	Tennessee (11)	37.5% 1,143,711	60.7% 1,852,475	+23.2% +708,764	100%	100%	R+6.5%	D+2.8%
✓	Alabama (9)	36.6% 849,648	62% 1,441,168	+25.4% +591,520	100%	100%	R+4.9%	D+2.3%
✓	Kentucky (8)	36.2% 772,474	62.1% 1,326,646	+25.9% +554,172	100%	100%	R+8.1%	D+3.9%
✓	South Dakota (3)	35.6% 150,471	61.8% 261,043	+26.2% +110,572	100%	100%	R+6.6%	D+3.6%
✓	Arkansas (6)	34.8% 423,932	62.4% 760,647	+27.6% +336,715	100%	100%	D+0.9%	R+0.7%
✓	Idaho (4)	33.1% 287,021	63.8% 554,118	+30.7% +267,097	100%	100%	R+5.7%	D+1.1%
✓	Oklahoma (7)	32.3% 503,890	65.4% 1,020,280	+33.1% +516,390	100%	100%	R+4.2%	D+3.3%
✓	North Dakota (3)	31.8% 114,902	65.1% 235,595	+33.3% +120,693	100%	100%	R+10.5%	D+2.5%
✓	West Virginia (5)	29.7% 235,984	68.6% 545,382	+38.9% +309,398	100%	100%	R+9.4%	D+3.2%
✓	Wyoming (3)	26.6% 73,491	69.9% 193,559	+43.3% +120,068	100%	100%	R+8.5%	D+2.5%
✓	Nebraska CD-3 (1)	22.4% 65,805	75.6% 221,934	+53.2% +156,129	100%	97%	D+1%	D+1%
	Average						R+2.9%	D+3.5%
	Average (Swing States)						R+4%	D+3.2%

Pollsters

Here's how pollsters are faring in the election (this will be updated as more votes come in).

We show how much each pollster's polls missed, both their 'Avg Polling Error' (either direction) and their 'Avg Polls v. Results (Bias)'
(directional average of their polling errors, aka, their new 'Bias').

Polls are weighted based upon date and older polls are excluded (so their polling average is mostly their polls close to election day).
Note: we don't include states where less than 90% of the votes have been reported.

Large Pollsters

(More Than 10 Polls or A Rated)

Pollster

Rating

538 Bias

Avg Polling Error

Avg Polls v. Results (Bias)

# Polls

Susquehanna Polling & Research Inc.

D+0.9%

1.8%

D+0.8%

State	Polls	Result	Polls v. Results (Bias)	# Polls
Arizona	R+0.2%	D+0.3%	R+0.5%	2
Florida	R+1.7%	R+3.3%	D+1.6%	3
North Carolina	D+2%	R+1.3%	D+3.3%	1
Pennsylvania	R+0.8%	D+1.2%	R+2%	1
Wisconsin	D+2.3%	D+0.7%	D+1.6%	3

Trafalgar Group

C-

R+0.9%

R+1.1%

State	Polls	Result	Polls v. Results (Bias)	# Polls
Arizona	R+2.7%	D+0.3%	R+3%	2
Florida	R+2.6%	R+3.3%	D+0.7%	2
Louisiana	R+18.2%	R+18.6%	D+0.4%	1
Michigan	R+2.2%	D+2.8%	R+5%	6
Minnesota	D+3.2%	D+7.1%	R+3.9%	1
Nevada	D+2.3%	D+2.4%	R+0.1%	1
North Carolina	R+2.2%	R+1.3%	R+0.9%	2
Ohio	R+4.7%	R+8.1%	D+3.4%	2
Pennsylvania	R+1.1%	D+1.2%	R+2.3%	6
Wisconsin	D+0.9%	D+0.7%	D+0.2%	5

Selzer & Co.

A+

D+0.1%

2.2%

D+2.2%

State	Polls	Result	Polls v. Results (Bias)	# Polls
Iowa	R+6%	R+8.2%	D+2.2%	4

InsiderAdvantage

2.9%

State	Polls	Result	Polls v. Results (Bias)	# Polls
Florida	R+1.5%	R+3.3%	D+1.8%	2
Georgia	R+2%	D+0.2%	R+2.2%	1
Iowa	R+1.2%	R+8.2%	D+7%	2
Michigan	D+2.1%	D+2.8%	R+0.7%	1
North Carolina	R+4.4%	R+1.3%	R+3.1%	1
Pennsylvania	R+1.3%	D+1.2%	R+2.5%	3

Suffolk University

D+0.6%

3.2%

D+2.7%

State	Polls	Result	Polls v. Results (Bias)	# Polls
Arizona	D+4%	D+0.3%	D+3.7%	1
Florida	0%	R+3.3%	D+3.3%	1
Maine	D+12.2%	D+9%	D+3.2%	2
Maine CD-1	D+21.8%	D+23%	R+1.2%	2
Minnesota	D+6.4%	D+7.1%	R+0.7%	1
New Hampshire	D+10.2%	D+7.3%	D+2.9%	1
North Carolina	D+3.9%	R+1.3%	D+5.2%	2
Pennsylvania	D+6.2%	D+1.2%	D+5%	1

AtlasIntel

B/C

3.3%

D+0.5%

State	Polls	Result	Polls v. Results (Bias)	# Polls
Arizona	R+2.3%	D+0.3%	R+2.6%	1
California	D+35.9%	D+29.2%	D+6.7%	1
Florida	D+0.1%	R+3.3%	D+3.4%	2
Georgia	R+2.2%	D+0.2%	R+2.4%	1
Michigan	D+2.4%	D+2.8%	R+0.4%	2
Nevada	D+2.8%	D+2.4%	D+0.4%	1
New Hampshire	R+2.4%	D+7.3%	R+9.7%	1
North Carolina	R+2%	R+1.3%	R+0.7%	1
Ohio	R+3.9%	R+8.1%	D+4.2%	1
Pennsylvania	R+1.1%	D+1.2%	R+2.3%	1
South Carolina	R+5.8%	R+11.7%	D+5.9%	1
Texas	R+2.7%	R+5.5%	D+2.8%	2
Wisconsin	D+1.9%	D+0.7%	D+1.2%	1

University of Massachusetts Lowell

A/B

R+0.2%

3.4%

D+0.7%

State	Polls	Result	Polls v. Results (Bias)	# Polls
Massachusetts	D+28%	D+33.5%	R+5.5%	1
New Hampshire	D+9.9%	D+7.3%	D+2.6%	3
North Carolina	0%	R+1.3%	D+1.3%	3
Texas	R+1.3%	R+5.5%	D+4.2%	3

SurveyUSA

D+0.1%

3.5%

D+1.6%

State	Polls	Result	Polls v. Results (Bias)	# Polls
California	D+27.5%	D+29.2%	R+1.7%	9
Colorado	D+10%	D+13.5%	R+3.5%	1
Connecticut	D+20%	D+20%	0%	1
Georgia	D+2.1%	D+0.2%	D+1.9%	3
Indiana	R+7%	R+16%	D+9%	1
Kansas	R+7%	R+14.6%	D+7.6%	1
Maine	D+13%	D+9%	D+4%	1
Maine CD-1	D+19%	D+23%	R+4%	1
Minnesota	D+5.6%	D+7.1%	R+1.5%	4
North Carolina	D+1.4%	R+1.3%	D+2.7%	6
Washington	D+22.1%	D+19.2%	D+2.9%	4

Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research

C+

R+1.5%

3.8%

D+3%

State	Polls	Result	Polls v. Results (Bias)	# Polls
Arizona	R+2.4%	D+0.3%	R+2.7%	2
Florida	R+0.3%	R+3.3%	D+3%	2
Michigan	D+8.6%	D+2.8%	D+5.8%	1
North Carolina	R+1%	R+1.3%	D+0.3%	3
Ohio	R+2.8%	R+8.1%	D+5.3%	3
Pennsylvania	D+3%	D+1.2%	D+1.8%	3
Wisconsin	D+8.4%	D+0.7%	D+7.7%	1

Emerson College

A-

D+0.3%

3.9%

D+2.1%

State	Polls	Result	Polls v. Results (Bias)	# Polls
Arizona	D+2.1%	D+0.3%	D+1.8%	3
California	D+29.4%	D+29.2%	D+0.2%	2
Colorado	D+9.8%	D+13.5%	R+3.7%	1
Florida	D+5%	R+3.3%	D+8.3%	2
Georgia	R+0.8%	D+0.2%	R+1%	2
Iowa	R+0.8%	R+8.2%	D+7.4%	6
Maine	D+11.4%	D+9%	D+2.4%	1
Maine CD-1	D+19%	D+23%	R+4%	1
Massachusetts	D+37.2%	D+33.5%	D+3.7%	3
Michigan	D+7.4%	D+2.8%	D+4.6%	5
Minnesota	D+2%	D+7.1%	R+5.1%	1
Montana	R+12.4%	R+16.3%	D+3.9%	2
Nebraska CD-2	D+2.6%	D+6.9%	R+4.3%	1
Nevada	D+1.6%	D+2.4%	R+0.8%	3
New Hampshire	D+8%	D+7.3%	D+0.7%	5
New Jersey	D+18.3%	D+15.8%	D+2.5%	1
New Mexico	D+8.6%	D+10.8%	R+2.2%	1
North Carolina	D+0.6%	R+1.3%	D+1.9%	5
Ohio	D+1%	R+8.1%	D+9.1%	3
Pennsylvania	D+4.8%	D+1.2%	D+3.6%	4
South Carolina	R+3.8%	R+11.7%	D+7.9%	1
Texas	R+0.8%	R+5.5%	D+4.7%	4
Wisconsin	D+7.3%	D+0.7%	D+6.6%	4

East Carolina University

B/C

D+4%

State	Polls	Result	Polls v. Results (Bias)	# Polls
North Carolina	D+2.8%	R+1.3%	D+4.1%	9
South Carolina	R+7.8%	R+11.7%	D+3.9%	2

Marquette Law School

D+4%

State	Polls	Result	Polls v. Results (Bias)	# Polls
Wisconsin	D+4.7%	D+0.7%	D+4%	13

Data for Progress

B-

4.1%

D+4%

State	Polls	Result	Polls v. Results (Bias)	# Polls
Alabama	R+20%	R+25.4%	D+5.4%	1
Arizona	D+2.8%	D+0.3%	D+2.5%	4
Colorado	D+12%	D+13.5%	R+1.5%	1
Florida	D+3%	R+3.3%	D+6.3%	2
Georgia	D+1.6%	D+0.2%	D+1.4%	4
Iowa	R+1.9%	R+8.2%	D+6.3%	4
Kansas	R+13.4%	R+14.6%	D+1.2%	3
Kentucky	R+18.7%	R+25.9%	D+7.2%	2
Maine	D+14%	D+9%	D+5%	2
Michigan	D+5.1%	D+2.8%	D+2.3%	3
Minnesota	D+8%	D+7.1%	D+0.9%	1
Mississippi	R+14%	R+16.5%	D+2.5%	1
Montana	R+6%	R+16.3%	D+10.3%	1
Nevada	D+7%	D+2.4%	D+4.6%	1
North Carolina	D+2.8%	R+1.3%	D+4.1%	3
Pennsylvania	D+7%	D+1.2%	D+5.8%	1
South Carolina	R+8.1%	R+11.7%	D+3.6%	5
Texas	D+1%	R+5.5%	D+6.5%	6
Virginia	D+11%	D+10.1%	D+0.9%	1

YouGov

D+0.4%

4.1%

D+3.4%

State	Polls	Result	Polls v. Results (Bias)	# Polls
Arizona	D+3%	D+0.3%	D+2.7%	3
California	D+28%	D+29.2%	R+1.2%	2
Colorado	D+9%	D+13.5%	R+4.5%	1
Florida	D+2%	R+3.3%	D+5.3%	4
Georgia	R+0.1%	D+0.2%	R+0.3%	3
Iowa	0%	R+8.2%	D+8.2%	1
Massachusetts	D+34.9%	D+33.5%	D+1.4%	2
Michigan	D+8.6%	D+2.8%	D+5.8%	7
Minnesota	D+9%	D+7.1%	D+1.9%	1
Missouri	R+8.6%	R+15.4%	D+6.8%	2
Nevada	D+6%	D+2.4%	D+3.6%	1
North Carolina	D+3.8%	R+1.3%	D+5.1%	3
Ohio	R+0.1%	R+8.1%	D+8%	2
Pennsylvania	D+7.5%	D+1.2%	D+6.3%	7
South Carolina	R+10%	R+11.7%	D+1.7%	1
Texas	R+5.1%	R+5.5%	D+0.4%	9
Wisconsin	D+7.3%	D+0.7%	D+6.6%	8

Muhlenberg College

A+

R+0.2%

4.2%

D+4.2%

State	Polls	Result	Polls v. Results (Bias)	# Polls
Pennsylvania	D+5.4%	D+1.2%	D+4.2%	5

Monmouth University

A+

D+1.3%

4.5%

D+4.5%

State	Polls	Result	Polls v. Results (Bias)	# Polls
Arizona	D+3.3%	D+0.3%	D+3%	5
Florida	D+4.5%	R+3.3%	D+7.8%	4
Georgia	D+1.8%	D+0.2%	D+1.6%	6
Iowa	D+3%	R+8.2%	D+11.2%	6
Michigan	D+7%	D+2.8%	D+4.2%	1
New Jersey	D+16%	D+15.8%	D+0.2%	1
North Carolina	D+2%	R+1.3%	D+3.3%	4
Pennsylvania	D+6.1%	D+1.2%	D+4.9%	8

Morning Consult

B/C

D+0.2%

4.7%

D+4.7%

State	Polls	Result	Polls v. Results (Bias)	# Polls
Arizona	D+1.7%	D+0.3%	D+1.4%	5
Colorado	D+13.6%	D+13.5%	D+0.1%	5
Florida	D+6.1%	R+3.3%	D+9.4%	6
Georgia	D+1.4%	D+0.2%	D+1.2%	5
Indiana	R+11.4%	R+16%	D+4.6%	1
Michigan	D+7.5%	D+2.8%	D+4.7%	5
Minnesota	D+8.8%	D+7.1%	D+1.7%	6
Missouri	R+9.4%	R+15.4%	D+6%	1
North Carolina	D+1.5%	R+1.3%	D+2.8%	6
Ohio	R+2.6%	R+8.1%	D+5.5%	5
Pennsylvania	D+8.6%	D+1.2%	D+7.4%	5
South Carolina	R+6.9%	R+11.7%	D+4.8%	4
Texas	0%	R+5.5%	D+5.5%	6
Wisconsin	D+12%	D+0.7%	D+11.3%	29

Change Research

C-

D+1.1%

4.8%

D+2.9%

State	Polls	Result	Polls v. Results (Bias)	# Polls
Arizona	D+3.7%	D+0.3%	D+3.4%	4
Florida	D+3.4%	R+3.3%	D+6.7%	4
Iowa	0%	R+8.2%	D+8.2%	1
Maine	D+12%	D+9%	D+3%	1
Maine CD-1	D+21%	D+23%	R+2%	1
Maryland	D+29%	D+33.2%	R+4.2%	1
Michigan	D+7.1%	D+2.8%	D+4.3%	4
Minnesota	D+5%	D+7.1%	R+2.1%	1
Montana	R+5%	R+16.3%	D+11.3%	1
Nebraska CD-2	D+3%	D+6.9%	R+3.9%	1
North Carolina	D+2.2%	R+1.3%	D+3.5%	4
Pennsylvania	D+3.6%	D+1.2%	D+2.4%	4
Wisconsin	D+8%	D+0.7%	D+7.3%	4

EPIC-MRA

B+

R+0.2%

4.9%

D+4.9%

State	Polls	Result	Polls v. Results (Bias)	# Polls
Michigan	D+7.7%	D+2.8%	D+4.9%	10

SurveyMonkey

D-

D+5%

D+4.2%

586

State	Polls	Result	Polls v. Results (Bias)	# Polls
Alabama	R+24%	R+25.4%	D+1.4%	12
Alaska	R+8.3%	R+10%	D+1.7%	10
Arizona	D+5.5%	D+0.3%	D+5.2%	11
Arkansas	R+22%	R+27.6%	D+5.6%	11
California	D+25.8%	D+29.2%	R+3.4%	14
Colorado	D+12.8%	D+13.5%	R+0.7%	11
Connecticut	D+22.8%	D+20%	D+2.8%	12
Delaware	D+22.3%	D+19%	D+3.3%	11
District of Columbia	D+87.3%	D+86.7%	D+0.6%	11
Florida	R+2%	R+3.3%	D+1.3%	13
Georgia	D+1.5%	D+0.2%	D+1.3%	12
Hawaii	D+33.9%	D+29.4%	D+4.5%	11
Idaho	R+19.4%	R+30.7%	D+11.3%	11
Illinois	D+17.2%	D+17%	D+0.2%	12
Indiana	R+10.2%	R+16%	D+5.8%	12
Iowa	R+1%	R+8.2%	D+7.2%	12
Kansas	R+9.6%	R+14.6%	D+5%	12
Kentucky	R+18.6%	R+25.9%	D+7.3%	12
Louisiana	R+26%	R+18.6%	R+7.4%	12
Maine	D+13.5%	D+9%	D+4.5%	11
Maryland	D+34.1%	D+33.2%	D+0.9%	11
Massachusetts	D+39.7%	D+33.5%	D+6.2%	12
Michigan	D+6.2%	D+2.8%	D+3.4%	12
Minnesota	D+13.3%	D+7.1%	D+6.2%	12
Mississippi	R+24.2%	R+16.5%	R+7.7%	11
Missouri	R+10.3%	R+15.4%	D+5.1%	12
Montana	R+5.8%	R+16.3%	D+10.5%	10
Nebraska	R+12.2%	R+19.2%	D+7%	11
Nevada	D+0.4%	D+2.4%	R+2%	12
New Hampshire	D+6.7%	D+7.3%	R+0.6%	11
New Jersey	D+21.1%	D+15.8%	D+5.3%	12
New Mexico	D+12.7%	D+10.8%	D+1.9%	12
New York	D+28.1%	D+23.2%	D+4.9%	12
North Carolina	D+4.4%	R+1.3%	D+5.7%	12
North Dakota	R+19.9%	R+33.3%	D+13.4%	10
Ohio	R+2.8%	R+8.1%	D+5.3%	11
Oklahoma	R+27.8%	R+33.1%	D+5.3%	12
Oregon	D+20.4%	D+16.1%	D+4.3%	12
Pennsylvania	D+4.6%	D+1.2%	D+3.4%	12
Rhode Island	D+27.3%	D+20.8%	D+6.5%	10
South Carolina	R+11.1%	R+11.7%	D+0.6%	12
South Dakota	R+24.4%	R+26.2%	D+1.8%	11
Tennessee	R+11%	R+23.2%	D+12.2%	11
Texas	R+4%	R+5.5%	D+1.5%	12
Utah	R+10.7%	R+20.5%	D+9.8%	12
Vermont	D+43.3%	D+35.4%	D+7.9%	10
Virginia	D+14.8%	D+10.1%	D+4.7%	12
Washington	D+26%	D+19.2%	D+6.8%	11
West Virginia	R+34.3%	R+38.9%	D+4.6%	11
Wisconsin	D+10.1%	D+0.7%	D+9.4%	11
Wyoming	R+32.6%	R+43.3%	D+10.7%	11

Civiqs

B/C

D+4.9%

State	Polls	Result	Polls v. Results (Bias)	# Polls
Arizona	D+4%	D+0.3%	D+3.7%	1
Colorado	D+12%	D+13.5%	R+1.5%	1
Florida	D+4%	R+3.3%	D+7.3%	1
Georgia	D+4.7%	D+0.2%	D+4.5%	3
Iowa	D+0.9%	R+8.2%	D+9.1%	3
Kansas	R+10.1%	R+14.6%	D+4.5%	2
Kentucky	R+20%	R+25.9%	D+5.9%	1
Michigan	D+9%	D+2.8%	D+6.2%	3
Minnesota	D+10%	D+7.1%	D+2.9%	1
Mississippi	R+14%	R+16.5%	D+2.5%	1
Montana	R+4%	R+16.3%	D+12.3%	1
Nevada	D+9%	D+2.4%	D+6.6%	1
North Carolina	D+5%	R+1.3%	D+6.3%	2
Ohio	R+1.4%	R+8.1%	D+6.7%	4
Oregon	D+17%	D+16.1%	D+0.9%	1
Pennsylvania	D+6.8%	D+1.2%	D+5.6%	5
South Carolina	R+10%	R+11.7%	D+1.7%	1
Texas	0%	R+5.5%	D+5.5%	1
Virginia	D+13%	D+10.1%	D+2.9%	1
Wisconsin	D+4.8%	D+0.7%	D+4.1%	4

Ipsos

B-

D+0.4%

D+5%

State	Polls	Result	Polls v. Results (Bias)	# Polls
Arizona	D+2.3%	D+0.3%	D+2%	10
Florida	D+3.4%	R+3.3%	D+6.7%	10
Michigan	D+9%	D+2.8%	D+6.2%	11
North Carolina	D+1.2%	R+1.3%	D+2.5%	10
Pennsylvania	D+5.8%	D+1.2%	D+4.6%	11
Wisconsin	D+8.8%	D+0.7%	D+8.1%	11

Gravis Marketing

D+0.9%

5.2%

D+5.2%

State	Polls	Result	Polls v. Results (Bias)	# Polls
Alaska	R+9%	R+10%	D+1%	1
Arizona	D+3.9%	D+0.3%	D+3.6%	2
Michigan	D+13%	D+2.8%	D+10.2%	1
Minnesota	D+14%	D+7.1%	D+6.9%	1
Nevada	D+6%	D+2.4%	D+3.6%	1
North Carolina	D+3%	R+1.3%	D+4.3%	1
Ohio	R+2%	R+8.1%	D+6.1%	1
Pennsylvania	D+7%	D+1.2%	D+5.8%	1
Texas	R+5%	R+5.5%	D+0.5%	1
Wisconsin	D+11%	D+0.7%	D+10.3%	1

Marist College

A+

R+0.3%

5.2%

D+5.2%

State	Polls	Result	Polls v. Results (Bias)	# Polls
Arizona	D+0.3%	D+0.3%	0%	3
Florida	D+3.6%	R+3.3%	D+6.9%	2
Michigan	D+8%	D+2.8%	D+5.2%	1
New Hampshire	D+8%	D+7.3%	D+0.7%	1
North Carolina	D+5.9%	R+1.3%	D+7.2%	3
Ohio	D+4%	R+8.1%	D+12.1%	1
Pennsylvania	D+5.4%	D+1.2%	D+4.2%	2
Texas	R+4%	R+5.5%	D+1.5%	1
Wisconsin	D+10%	D+0.7%	D+9.3%	1

Swayable

D-

5.4%

D+4.8%

State	Polls	Result	Polls v. Results (Bias)	# Polls
Alabama	R+17.6%	R+25.4%	D+7.8%	2
Arizona	D+5.9%	D+0.3%	D+5.6%	2
California	D+26.7%	D+29.2%	R+2.5%	1
Colorado	D+14.7%	D+13.5%	D+1.2%	1
Connecticut	D+30.4%	D+20%	D+10.4%	1
Florida	D+4.6%	R+3.3%	D+7.9%	2
Georgia	D+7.5%	D+0.2%	D+7.3%	2
Illinois	D+11.4%	D+17%	R+5.6%	2
Indiana	R+11.8%	R+16%	D+4.2%	2
Kentucky	R+13.5%	R+25.9%	D+12.4%	1
Louisiana	R+17.5%	R+18.6%	D+1.1%	1
Maryland	D+35.9%	D+33.2%	D+2.7%	1
Michigan	D+11.5%	D+2.8%	D+8.7%	2
Minnesota	D+9.3%	D+7.1%	D+2.2%	1
Missouri	R+11.2%	R+15.4%	D+4.2%	1
New Jersey	D+20.3%	D+15.8%	D+4.5%	2
New York	D+32.6%	D+23.2%	D+9.4%	1
North Carolina	D+5.1%	R+1.3%	D+6.4%	2
Ohio	R+6.9%	R+8.1%	D+1.2%	2
Oregon	D+23.2%	D+16.1%	D+7.1%	1
Pennsylvania	D+2.6%	D+1.2%	D+1.4%	2
South Carolina	R+0.9%	R+11.7%	D+10.8%	1
Tennessee	R+16.7%	R+23.2%	D+6.5%	1
Texas	R+3.3%	R+5.5%	D+2.2%	2
Virginia	D+13.9%	D+10.1%	D+3.8%	2
Washington	D+20.3%	D+19.2%	D+1.1%	1
Wisconsin	D+9.5%	D+0.7%	D+8.8%	2

RMG Research

B/C

5.4%

D+4.5%

State	Polls	Result	Polls v. Results (Bias)	# Polls
Arizona	D+1%	D+0.3%	D+0.7%	1
Colorado	D+8%	D+13.5%	R+5.5%	1
Florida	D+3.3%	R+3.3%	D+6.6%	3
Iowa	0%	R+8.2%	D+8.2%	2
Kentucky	R+17%	R+25.9%	D+8.9%	1
Maine	D+11%	D+9%	D+2%	1
Michigan	D+6.8%	D+2.8%	D+4%	2
Montana	R+4%	R+16.3%	D+12.3%	1
North Carolina	D+1.2%	R+1.3%	D+2.5%	2
Pennsylvania	D+6%	D+1.2%	D+4.8%	2
Texas	R+4%	R+5.5%	D+1.5%	1
Utah	R+12.7%	R+20.5%	D+7.8%	6
Wisconsin	D+6%	D+0.7%	D+5.3%	1

Siena College/The New York Times Upshot

A+

R+0.3%

5.4%

D+4.9%

State	Polls	Result	Polls v. Results (Bias)	# Polls
Alaska	R+6%	R+10%	D+4%	1
Arizona	D+6.5%	D+0.3%	D+6.2%	5
Florida	D+3.4%	R+3.3%	D+6.7%	4
Georgia	0%	D+0.2%	R+0.2%	2
Iowa	D+2.4%	R+8.2%	D+10.6%	4
Kansas	R+7%	R+14.6%	D+7.6%	1
Maine	D+17%	D+9%	D+8%	1
Michigan	D+8%	D+2.8%	D+5.2%	4
Minnesota	D+9%	D+7.1%	D+1.9%	1
Montana	R+6.2%	R+16.3%	D+10.1%	2
Nebraska CD-2	D+7%	D+6.9%	D+0.1%	1
Nevada	D+5.9%	D+2.4%	D+3.5%	3
New Hampshire	D+3%	D+7.3%	R+4.3%	1
North Carolina	D+3.2%	R+1.3%	D+4.5%	5
Ohio	D+1%	R+8.1%	D+9.1%	1
Pennsylvania	D+6.4%	D+1.2%	D+5.2%	5
South Carolina	R+8%	R+11.7%	D+3.7%	1
Texas	R+3.9%	R+5.5%	D+1.6%	2
Wisconsin	D+10.3%	D+0.7%	D+9.6%	5

Public Policy Polling

D+0.3%

5.5%

D+5.2%

State	Polls	Result	Polls v. Results (Bias)	# Polls
Alaska	R+5%	R+10%	D+5%	3
Arizona	D+2.5%	D+0.3%	D+2.2%	3
California	D+38%	D+29.2%	D+8.8%	1
Colorado	D+14.2%	D+13.5%	D+0.7%	2
Delaware	D+21%	D+19%	D+2%	1
Florida	D+6.9%	R+3.3%	D+10.2%	2
Georgia	D+1.8%	D+0.2%	D+1.6%	6
Iowa	D+0.8%	R+8.2%	D+9%	5
Kansas	R+11.7%	R+14.6%	D+2.9%	3
Kentucky	R+16%	R+25.9%	D+9.9%	1
Maine	D+11%	D+9%	D+2%	4
Maine CD-1	D+20%	D+23%	R+3%	1
Michigan	D+8.6%	D+2.8%	D+5.8%	12
Minnesota	D+10.8%	D+7.1%	D+3.7%	3
Montana	R+3%	R+16.3%	D+13.3%	4
New Mexico	D+13.8%	D+10.8%	D+3%	3
New York	D+31%	D+23.2%	D+7.8%	1
North Carolina	D+3.9%	R+1.3%	D+5.2%	12
Ohio	D+2.7%	R+8.1%	D+10.8%	2
Pennsylvania	D+6.4%	D+1.2%	D+5.2%	3
Texas	D+1.5%	R+5.5%	D+7%	10
Washington	D+23%	D+19.2%	D+3.8%	2
Wisconsin	D+3.7%	D+0.7%	D+3%	2

ABC News/The Washington Post

A+

D+0.5%

5.6%

D+5.3%

State	Polls	Result	Polls v. Results (Bias)	# Polls
Arizona	R+1%	D+0.3%	R+1.3%	1
Florida	R+2.2%	R+3.3%	D+1.1%	2
Michigan	D+7%	D+2.8%	D+4.2%	1
Minnesota	D+16%	D+7.1%	D+8.9%	1
North Carolina	D+1.7%	R+1.3%	D+3%	2
Pennsylvania	D+7.3%	D+1.2%	D+6.1%	2
Wisconsin	D+15.6%	D+0.7%	D+14.9%	2

Hart Research Associates

D+6%

State	Polls	Result	Polls v. Results (Bias)	# Polls
Arizona	D+11%	D+0.3%	D+10.7%	1
Florida	D+6%	R+3.3%	D+9.3%	1
Georgia	D+3%	D+0.2%	D+2.8%	1
Iowa	R+2%	R+8.2%	D+6.2%	1
Michigan	D+5%	D+2.8%	D+2.2%	1
North Carolina	D+2%	R+1.3%	D+3.3%	1
Ohio	R+2%	R+8.1%	D+6.1%	1
Pennsylvania	D+11%	D+1.2%	D+9.8%	1
Texas	R+2%	R+5.5%	D+3.5%	1
Wisconsin	D+7%	D+0.7%	D+6.3%	1

Fox News

6.2%

D+6.2%

State	Polls	Result	Polls v. Results (Bias)	# Polls
Arizona	D+7.5%	D+0.3%	D+7.2%	2
Florida	D+7%	R+3.3%	D+10.3%	2
Georgia	D+2%	D+0.2%	D+1.8%	1
Michigan	D+11.5%	D+2.8%	D+8.7%	3
Minnesota	D+13%	D+7.1%	D+5.9%	1
Nevada	D+9.9%	D+2.4%	D+7.5%	3
North Carolina	D+3.2%	R+1.3%	D+4.5%	3
Ohio	R+1.5%	R+8.1%	D+6.6%	3
Pennsylvania	D+5.7%	D+1.2%	D+4.5%	4
Texas	D+1%	R+5.5%	D+6.5%	1
Wisconsin	D+5.6%	D+0.7%	D+4.9%	5

Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy

B+

R+0.6%

6.5%

D+3.4%

State	Polls	Result	Polls v. Results (Bias)	# Polls
Alabama	R+20%	R+25.4%	D+5.4%	1
Florida	D+3%	R+3.3%	D+6.3%	3
Georgia	R+7%	D+0.2%	R+7.2%	1
Kentucky	R+17%	R+25.9%	D+8.9%	1
Minnesota	D+6.4%	D+7.1%	R+0.7%	3
Mississippi	R+15%	R+16.5%	D+1.5%	1
South Dakota	R+11%	R+26.2%	D+15.2%	1
Tennessee	R+16%	R+23.2%	D+7.2%	1
Virginia	D+4%	D+10.1%	R+6.1%	1

Quinnipiac University

B+

D+0.2%

6.6%

D+5.5%

State	Polls	Result	Polls v. Results (Bias)	# Polls
Connecticut	D+23%	D+20%	D+3%	1
Florida	D+5%	R+3.3%	D+8.3%	7
Georgia	D+6.1%	D+0.2%	D+5.9%	2
Iowa	0%	R+8.2%	D+8.2%	2
Kentucky	R+17.3%	R+25.9%	D+8.6%	2
Maine	D+19.5%	D+9%	D+10.5%	2
Maine CD-1	D+31.8%	D+23%	D+8.8%	2
Michigan	D+4%	D+2.8%	D+1.2%	1
New Jersey	D+19%	D+15.8%	D+3.2%	1
New York	D+23%	D+23.2%	R+0.2%	1
Ohio	D+3.9%	R+8.1%	D+12%	6
Pennsylvania	D+7.8%	D+1.2%	D+6.6%	6
South Carolina	R+2.4%	R+11.7%	D+9.3%	3
Texas	R+0.5%	R+5.5%	D+5%	6
Wisconsin	R+7%	D+0.7%	R+7.7%	1

Redfield & Wilton Strategies

6.6%

D+6.6%

State	Polls	Result	Polls v. Results (Bias)	# Polls
Arizona	D+3.8%	D+0.3%	D+3.5%	4
Florida	D+4.6%	R+3.3%	D+7.9%	4
Michigan	D+12.3%	D+2.8%	D+9.5%	4
North Carolina	D+2.5%	R+1.3%	D+3.8%	4
Pennsylvania	D+5.4%	D+1.2%	D+4.2%	4
Wisconsin	D+11.6%	D+0.7%	D+10.9%	4

Siena College

A-

R+0.7%

6.7%

D+6.7%

State	Polls	Result	Polls v. Results (Bias)	# Polls
New York	D+29.9%	D+23.2%	D+6.7%	6

CNN/SSRS

7.1%

D+5.2%

State	Polls	Result	Polls v. Results (Bias)	# Polls
Arizona	D+4%	D+0.3%	D+3.7%	2
California	D+21.6%	D+29.2%	R+7.6%	2
Florida	D+4%	R+3.3%	D+7.3%	2
Michigan	D+12%	D+2.8%	D+9.2%	2
North Carolina	D+5.9%	R+1.3%	D+7.2%	2
Pennsylvania	D+10%	D+1.2%	D+8.8%	1
Texas	D+0.4%	R+5.5%	D+5.9%	2
Wisconsin	D+8.1%	D+0.7%	D+7.4%	2

Smaller Pollsters

(Less Than 10 Polls)

Pollster

Rating

538 Bias

Avg Polling Error

Avg Polls v. Results (Bias)

# Polls

Fort Hays State University

C/D

R+1.4%

0.2%

D+0.2%

State	Polls	Result	Polls v. Results (Bias)	# Polls
Kansas	R+14.4%	R+14.6%	D+0.2%	1

University of Georgia

B/C

R+0.3%

0.2%

R+0.2%

State	Polls	Result	Polls v. Results (Bias)	# Polls
Georgia	0%	D+0.2%	R+0.2%	4

Fairleigh Dickinson University (PublicMind)

A/B

0.4%

R+0.4%

State	Polls	Result	Polls v. Results (Bias)	# Polls
New Jersey	D+15.4%	D+15.8%	R+0.4%	2

Basswood Research

B/C

R+0.2%

0.4%

R+0.4%

State	Polls	Result	Polls v. Results (Bias)	# Polls
Arizona	R+0.1%	D+0.3%	R+0.4%	3

WPA Intelligence

0.4%

R+0.4%

State	Polls	Result	Polls v. Results (Bias)	# Polls
Nevada	D+2%	D+2.4%	R+0.4%	1

MassINC Polling Group

A/B

R+0.7%

0.4%

D+0.4%

State	Polls	Result	Polls v. Results (Bias)	# Polls
Massachusetts	D+33.9%	D+33.5%	D+0.4%	3

HighGround Inc.

B/C

R+0.4%

0.7%

D+0.7%

State	Polls	Result	Polls v. Results (Bias)	# Polls
Arizona	D+1%	D+0.3%	D+0.7%	1

Saint Anselm College

0.8%

D+0.8%

State	Polls	Result	Polls v. Results (Bias)	# Polls
New Hampshire	D+8.1%	D+7.3%	D+0.8%	2

Public Opinion Strategies

B+

R+1.5%

0.8%

D+0.8%

State	Polls	Result	Polls v. Results (Bias)	# Polls
Georgia	D+1%	D+0.2%	D+0.8%	1

Roanoke College

B/C

D+0.5%

0.9%

D+0.9%

State	Polls	Result	Polls v. Results (Bias)	# Polls
Virginia	D+11%	D+10.1%	D+0.9%	1

Cardinal Point Analytics (CardinalGPS)

0.9%

R+0.9%

State	Polls	Result	Polls v. Results (Bias)	# Polls
North Carolina	R+2.2%	R+1.3%	R+0.9%	1

Keating Research/OnSight Public Affairs/Melanson

B/C

R+0.1%

0.9%

R+0.9%

State	Polls	Result	Polls v. Results (Bias)	# Polls
Colorado	D+12.6%	D+13.5%	R+0.9%	2

The Washington Post/George Mason University

0.9%

D+0.9%

State	Polls	Result	Polls v. Results (Bias)	# Polls
Virginia	D+11%	D+10.1%	D+0.9%	1

OpinionWorks

B/C

R+0.5%

1.2%

R+1.2%

State	Polls	Result	Polls v. Results (Bias)	# Polls
Maryland	D+32%	D+33.2%	R+1.2%	1

Bendixen & Amandi International

B/C

D+0.1%

1.3%

R+1.3%

State	Polls	Result	Polls v. Results (Bias)	# Polls
Arizona	R+1%	D+0.3%	R+1.3%	1

Christopher Newport University

B/C

D+0.7%

1.3%

D+1.3%

State	Polls	Result	Polls v. Results (Bias)	# Polls
Virginia	D+11.4%	D+10.1%	D+1.3%	2

Research & Polling Inc.

B+

R+0.9%

1.4%

D+1.4%

State	Polls	Result	Polls v. Results (Bias)	# Polls
New Mexico	D+12.2%	D+10.8%	D+1.4%	2

Victory Research

B/C

1.4%

R+1.4%

State	Polls	Result	Polls v. Results (Bias)	# Polls
Illinois	D+15.6%	D+17%	R+1.4%	2

University of New Hampshire

B-

D+2.8%

1.6%

D+1.6%

State	Polls	Result	Polls v. Results (Bias)	# Polls
New Hampshire	D+8.9%	D+7.3%	D+1.6%	3

Data Orbital

A/B

D+0.3%

1.7%

D+1.7%

State	Polls	Result	Polls v. Results (Bias)	# Polls
Arizona	D+2%	D+0.3%	D+1.7%	5

Virginia Commonwealth University

B/C

R+0.2%

D+2%

State	Polls	Result	Polls v. Results (Bias)	# Polls
Virginia	D+12.1%	D+10.1%	D+2%	2

Marketing Resource Group (MRG)

B/C

D+0.3%

2.2%

D+2.2%

State	Polls	Result	Polls v. Results (Bias)	# Polls
Michigan	D+5%	D+2.8%	D+2.2%	1

Goucher College

2.2%

R+2.2%

State	Polls	Result	Polls v. Results (Bias)	# Polls
Maryland	D+31%	D+33.2%	R+2.2%	1

Univision/University of Houston/Latino Decisions

B/C

2.5%

D+2.5%

State	Polls	Result	Polls v. Results (Bias)	# Polls
Texas	R+3%	R+5.5%	D+2.5%	1

Wick

2.5%

R+0.6%

State	Polls	Result	Polls v. Results (Bias)	# Polls
Florida	R+2.9%	R+3.3%	D+0.4%	1
Georgia	R+2.5%	D+0.2%	R+2.7%	1
Michigan	D+0.3%	D+2.8%	R+2.5%	1
North Carolina	R+2.2%	R+1.3%	R+0.9%	1
Ohio	R+2.9%	R+8.1%	D+5.2%	1
Pennsylvania	R+2.1%	D+1.2%	R+3.3%	1

Latino Decisions

B/C

2.5%

D+2.5%

State	Polls	Result	Polls v. Results (Bias)	# Polls
Arizona	D+3.2%	D+0.3%	D+2.9%	2
Florida	R+3%	R+3.3%	D+0.3%	1
Wisconsin	D+5%	D+0.7%	D+4.3%	1

Colby College

2.5%

D+1.5%

State	Polls	Result	Polls v. Results (Bias)	# Polls
Maine	D+13%	D+9%	D+4%	1
Maine CD-1	D+22%	D+23%	R+1%	1

Cygnal

A/B

D+1%

2.9%

D+1.5%

State	Polls	Result	Polls v. Results (Bias)	# Polls
Florida	D+3.2%	R+3.3%	D+6.5%	1
Georgia	R+1.1%	D+0.2%	R+1.3%	1
Virginia	D+9.3%	D+10.1%	R+0.8%	2

Public Policy Institute of California

A/B

R+1%

2.9%

R+2.9%

State	Polls	Result	Polls v. Results (Bias)	# Polls
California	D+26.3%	D+29.2%	R+2.9%	3

OH Predictive Insights

B/C

R+0.9%

D+3%

State	Polls	Result	Polls v. Results (Bias)	# Polls
Arizona	D+3.3%	D+0.3%	D+3%	4

Harper Polling

B/C

D+0.1%

3.1%

R+1%

State	Polls	Result	Polls v. Results (Bias)	# Polls
Minnesota	D+3%	D+7.1%	R+4.1%	1
North Carolina	D+0.8%	R+1.3%	D+2.1%	2

Hendrix College

B/C

D+1.5%

3.1%

D+3.1%

State	Polls	Result	Polls v. Results (Bias)	# Polls
Arkansas	R+24.5%	R+27.6%	D+3.1%	1

Pulse Opinion Research

3.2%

D+1.3%

State	Polls	Result	Polls v. Results (Bias)	# Polls
Nevada	D+1%	D+2.4%	R+1.4%	1
New Hampshire	D+14%	D+7.3%	D+6.7%	1
Texas	R+7%	R+5.5%	R+1.5%	1

MRG Research

B/C

R+2.1%

3.2%

D+3.2%

State	Polls	Result	Polls v. Results (Bias)	# Polls
Hawaii	D+32.6%	D+29.4%	D+3.2%	2

AYTM

3.3%

D+3.3%

State	Polls	Result	Polls v. Results (Bias)	# Polls
Florida	D+2%	R+3.3%	D+5.3%	1
Georgia	D+4%	D+0.2%	D+3.8%	1
Pennsylvania	D+2%	D+1.2%	D+0.8%	1

Landmark Communications

D+1.5%

3.3%

R+3.3%

State	Polls	Result	Polls v. Results (Bias)	# Polls
Georgia	R+3.1%	D+0.2%	R+3.3%	7

Global Strategy Group

B/C

D+1.8%

3.4%

D+2%

State	Polls	Result	Polls v. Results (Bias)	# Polls
Colorado	D+12.4%	D+13.5%	R+1.1%	3
Nebraska CD-2	D+6%	D+6.9%	R+0.9%	1
Pennsylvania	D+9.3%	D+1.2%	D+8.1%	2

RBI Strategies & Research

B/C

+0%

3.5%

D+3.5%

State	Polls	Result	Polls v. Results (Bias)	# Polls
Colorado	D+17%	D+13.5%	D+3.5%	1

Pan Atlantic Research

B/C

D+0.8%

3.6%

R+2%

State	Polls	Result	Polls v. Results (Bias)	# Polls
Maine	D+10.6%	D+9%	D+1.6%	1
Maine CD-1	D+17.5%	D+23%	R+5.5%	1

University of Nevada Las Vegas Lee Business School

3.8%

D+2.8%

State	Polls	Result	Polls v. Results (Bias)	# Polls
Nebraska CD-2	D+5.9%	D+6.9%	R+1%	1
Nevada	D+9%	D+2.4%	D+6.6%	1

Whitman Insight Strategies

3.8%

D+3.8%

State	Polls	Result	Polls v. Results (Bias)	# Polls
Pennsylvania	D+5%	D+1.2%	D+3.8%	1

Frederick Polls

B/C

+0%

3.8%

D+3.8%

State	Polls	Result	Polls v. Results (Bias)	# Polls
Florida	D+2%	R+3.3%	D+5.3%	1
North Carolina	D+2%	R+1.3%	D+3.3%	1
Pennsylvania	D+4%	D+1.2%	D+2.8%	1

co/efficient

C/D

D+0.2%

3.9%

R+3.9%

State	Polls	Result	Polls v. Results (Bias)	# Polls
Kansas	R+17%	R+14.6%	R+2.4%	1
Vermont	D+30%	D+35.4%	R+5.4%	1

GBAO

B/C

3.9%

D+3.9%

State	Polls	Result	Polls v. Results (Bias)	# Polls
Georgia	D+3%	D+0.2%	D+2.8%	1
New Mexico	D+13%	D+10.8%	D+2.2%	1
South Carolina	R+5%	R+11.7%	D+6.7%	1

FM3 Research

B/C

D+0.5%

4.1%

D+4.1%

State	Polls	Result	Polls v. Results (Bias)	# Polls
Nebraska CD-2	D+11%	D+6.9%	D+4.1%	1

DHM Research

B/C

R+0.1%

4.1%

R+4.1%

State	Polls	Result	Polls v. Results (Bias)	# Polls
Oregon	D+12%	D+16.1%	R+4.1%	1

Research Co.

B-

R+0.5%

4.2%

D+4.2%

State	Polls	Result	Polls v. Results (Bias)	# Polls
Illinois	D+17%	D+17%	0%	1
Michigan	D+7%	D+2.8%	D+4.2%	1
Minnesota	D+9%	D+7.1%	D+1.9%	1
New Jersey	D+18%	D+15.8%	D+2.2%	1
New York	D+28%	D+23.2%	D+4.8%	1
Ohio	0%	R+8.1%	D+8.1%	1
Pennsylvania	D+6%	D+1.2%	D+4.8%	1
Wisconsin	D+8%	D+0.7%	D+7.3%	1

Univision/Latino Decisions/North Star Opinion Research

4.2%

D+4.2%

State	Polls	Result	Polls v. Results (Bias)	# Polls
Florida	D+3%	R+3.3%	D+6.3%	1
Pennsylvania	D+5%	D+1.2%	D+3.8%	1
Texas	R+3%	R+5.5%	D+2.5%	1

David Binder Research

B/C

4.3%

D+4.3%

State	Polls	Result	Polls v. Results (Bias)	# Polls
California	D+31%	D+29.2%	D+1.8%	2
Iowa	R+6%	R+8.2%	D+2.2%	1
Minnesota	D+11%	D+7.1%	D+3.9%	1
Wisconsin	D+10%	D+0.7%	D+9.3%	1

University of New Orleans

B/C

D+0.3%

4.3%

R+4.3%

State	Polls	Result	Polls v. Results (Bias)	# Polls
Louisiana	R+22.9%	R+18.6%	R+4.3%	1

Meeting Street Insights

4.3%

D+4.3%

State	Polls	Result	Polls v. Results (Bias)	# Polls
North Carolina	D+3%	R+1.3%	D+4.3%	2

CCES / YouGov

4.3%

D+4.3%

State	Polls	Result	Polls v. Results (Bias)	# Polls
Florida	D+2%	R+3.3%	D+5.3%	1
Georgia	D+1%	D+0.2%	D+0.8%	1
North Carolina	D+4%	R+1.3%	D+5.3%	1
Pennsylvania	D+8%	D+1.2%	D+6.8%	1
Texas	R+2%	R+5.5%	D+3.5%	1

Starboard Communications

B/C

D+0.1%

4.4%

D+4.4%

State	Polls	Result	Polls v. Results (Bias)	# Polls
South Carolina	R+7.3%	R+11.7%	D+4.4%	1

Beacon Research

B/C

4.5%

D+4.5%

State	Polls	Result	Polls v. Results (Bias)	# Polls
Texas	R+1%	R+5.5%	D+4.5%	1

St. Pete Polls

R+0.4%

4.6%

D+4.6%

State	Polls	Result	Polls v. Results (Bias)	# Polls
Florida	D+1.3%	R+3.3%	D+4.6%	5

Univision/University of Arizona/Latino Decisions/North Star Opinion Research

4.7%

D+4.7%

State	Polls	Result	Polls v. Results (Bias)	# Polls
Arizona	D+5%	D+0.3%	D+4.7%	1

Stockton University

A/B

D+0.7%

4.7%

D+4.7%

State	Polls	Result	Polls v. Results (Bias)	# Polls
New Jersey	D+20.5%	D+15.8%	D+4.7%	1

Meredith College

B/C

4.8%

D+4.8%

State	Polls	Result	Polls v. Results (Bias)	# Polls
North Carolina	D+3.5%	R+1.3%	D+4.8%	4

Franklin & Marshall College

B/C

D+0.4%

4.8%

D+4.8%

State	Polls	Result	Polls v. Results (Bias)	# Polls
Pennsylvania	D+6%	D+1.2%	D+4.8%	4

Strategies 360

B/C

R+0.1%

4.9%

D+4.9%

State	Polls	Result	Polls v. Results (Bias)	# Polls
Arizona	D+4%	D+0.3%	D+3.7%	1
Montana	R+8%	R+16.3%	D+8.3%	1
Washington	D+22%	D+19.2%	D+2.8%	1

Reconnect Research/Roanoke College

4.9%

D+4.9%

State	Polls	Result	Polls v. Results (Bias)	# Polls
Virginia	D+15%	D+10.1%	D+4.9%	1

Sacred Heart University

B/C

R+0.3%

D+5%

State	Polls	Result	Polls v. Results (Bias)	# Polls
Connecticut	D+25%	D+20%	D+5%	1

TargetSmart

D+0.8%

State	Polls	Result	Polls v. Results (Bias)	# Polls
Georgia	R+4%	D+0.2%	R+4.2%	1
Pennsylvania	D+7%	D+1.2%	D+5.8%	1

Harris Poll

D+5%

State	Polls	Result	Polls v. Results (Bias)	# Polls
Florida	D+2.4%	R+3.3%	D+5.7%	2
Michigan	D+11%	D+2.8%	D+8.2%	1
North Carolina	D+1%	R+1.3%	D+2.3%	1
Pennsylvania	D+5%	D+1.2%	D+3.8%	2

Cole Hargrave Snodgrass & Associates

B/C

D+0.1%

5.1%

D+5.1%

State	Polls	Result	Polls v. Results (Bias)	# Polls
Oklahoma	R+28%	R+33.1%	D+5.1%	1

Glengariff Group

B/C

D+0.3%

5.1%

D+5.1%

State	Polls	Result	Polls v. Results (Bias)	# Polls
Michigan	D+7.9%	D+2.8%	D+5.1%	3

ALG Research

B/C

D+1.5%

5.2%

D+5.2%

State	Polls	Result	Polls v. Results (Bias)	# Polls
Michigan	D+8%	D+2.8%	D+5.2%	1
Nevada	D+4%	D+2.4%	D+1.6%	1
North Carolina	D+3%	R+1.3%	D+4.3%	1
Ohio	D+2%	R+8.1%	D+10.1%	1
Pennsylvania	D+6%	D+1.2%	D+4.8%	1

Baldwin Wallace University (Great Lakes Poll)

5.2%

D+5.2%

State	Polls	Result	Polls v. Results (Bias)	# Polls
Michigan	D+7%	D+2.8%	D+4.2%	1
Ohio	R+1.6%	R+8.1%	D+6.5%	1
Pennsylvania	D+5.1%	D+1.2%	D+3.9%	1
Wisconsin	D+6.7%	D+0.7%	D+6%	1

University of Arkansas

B/C

D+0.7%

5.4%

R+5.4%

State	Polls	Result	Polls v. Results (Bias)	# Polls
Arkansas	R+33%	R+27.6%	R+5.4%	1

Critical Insights

C/D

R+0.1%

5.5%

D+5.5%

State	Polls	Result	Polls v. Results (Bias)	# Polls
Maine	D+11%	D+9%	D+2%	1
Maine CD-1	D+32%	D+23%	D+9%	1

Mitchell Research & Communications

C-

D+0.8%

5.5%

D+5.5%

State	Polls	Result	Polls v. Results (Bias)	# Polls
Michigan	D+8.3%	D+2.8%	D+5.5%	3

EMC Research

5.5%

D+5.5%

State	Polls	Result	Polls v. Results (Bias)	# Polls
Texas	0%	R+5.5%	D+5.5%	1

The Justice Collaborative Institute

5.7%

D+5.7%

State	Polls	Result	Polls v. Results (Bias)	# Polls
Arizona	D+6%	D+0.3%	D+5.7%	1

Florida Atlantic University

B/C

D+0.4%

5.7%

D+5.7%

State	Polls	Result	Polls v. Results (Bias)	# Polls
Florida	D+2.4%	R+3.3%	D+5.7%	8

University of North Florida

A/B

D+0.7%

5.8%

D+5.8%

State	Polls	Result	Polls v. Results (Bias)	# Polls
Florida	D+2.5%	R+3.3%	D+5.8%	5

HarrisX

D+6%

State	Polls	Result	Polls v. Results (Bias)	# Polls
Georgia	D+6.2%	D+0.2%	D+6%	1

Alaska Survey Research

B/C

D+1.8%

D+6%

State	Polls	Result	Polls v. Results (Bias)	# Polls
Alaska	R+4%	R+10%	D+6%	1

Opinion Insight

6.1%

D+6.1%

State	Polls	Result	Polls v. Results (Bias)	# Polls
Georgia	D+3.6%	D+0.2%	D+3.4%	2
Iowa	D+0.9%	R+8.2%	D+9.1%	2
Michigan	D+8.6%	D+2.8%	D+5.8%	2

DKC Analytics

6.2%

D+6.2%

State	Polls	Result	Polls v. Results (Bias)	# Polls
New Jersey	D+22%	D+15.8%	D+6.2%	1

Auburn University at Montgomery

6.2%

D+6.2%

State	Polls	Result	Polls v. Results (Bias)	# Polls
Alabama	R+19.2%	R+25.4%	D+6.2%	2

Citizen Data

6.6%

D+6.6%

State	Polls	Result	Polls v. Results (Bias)	# Polls
Florida	D+4.9%	R+3.3%	D+8.2%	1
Georgia	D+4.5%	D+0.2%	D+4.3%	1
Michigan	D+8.1%	D+2.8%	D+5.3%	1
North Carolina	D+6.6%	R+1.3%	D+7.9%	1
Ohio	R+1.2%	R+8.1%	D+6.9%	1
Pennsylvania	D+5.3%	D+1.2%	D+4.1%	1
Texas	D+3.9%	R+5.5%	D+9.4%	1

University of California, Berkeley

6.8%

D+6.8%

State	Polls	Result	Polls v. Results (Bias)	# Polls
California	D+36%	D+29.2%	D+6.8%	1

Zia Poll

C/D

R+0.5%

6.8%

R+6.8%

State	Polls	Result	Polls v. Results (Bias)	# Polls
Michigan	R+4%	D+2.8%	R+6.8%	1

Targoz Market Research

C/D

D+1.6%

6.8%

D+6.3%

State	Polls	Result	Polls v. Results (Bias)	# Polls
Arizona	R+1%	D+0.3%	R+1.3%	1
Florida	D+3.7%	R+3.3%	D+7%	1
Michigan	D+14%	D+2.8%	D+11.2%	1
Minnesota	D+9%	D+7.1%	D+1.9%	1
Pennsylvania	D+14%	D+1.2%	D+12.8%	1

Patinkin Research Strategies

6.9%

D+6.9%

State	Polls	Result	Polls v. Results (Bias)	# Polls
Alaska	R+3%	R+10%	D+7%	1
Arizona	D+7%	D+0.3%	D+6.7%	2

OnMessage Inc.

B/C

R+1.4%

7.2%

D+7.2%

State	Polls	Result	Polls v. Results (Bias)	# Polls
Ohio	R+0.9%	R+8.1%	D+7.2%	2

GQR Research

7.4%

D+7.4%

State	Polls	Result	Polls v. Results (Bias)	# Polls
Florida	D+5%	R+3.3%	D+8.3%	1
Michigan	D+9%	D+2.8%	D+6.2%	1
Pennsylvania	D+9%	D+1.2%	D+7.8%	1

Y2 Analytics

B/C

D+0.4%

7.9%

D+7.9%

State	Polls	Result	Polls v. Results (Bias)	# Polls
Arizona	D+3%	D+0.3%	D+2.7%	1
Utah	R+7.5%	R+20.5%	D+13%	3

St. Cloud State University

B/C

D+0.3%

7.9%

D+7.9%

State	Polls	Result	Polls v. Results (Bias)	# Polls
Minnesota	D+15%	D+7.1%	D+7.9%	1

Ragnar Research Partners

D+8%

State	Polls	Result	Polls v. Results (Bias)	# Polls
Indiana	R+8%	R+16%	D+8%	1

Gonzales Research & Marketing Strategies Inc.

B/C

R+0.3%

8.1%

R+8.1%

State	Polls	Result	Polls v. Results (Bias)	# Polls
Maryland	D+25.1%	D+33.2%	R+8.1%	1

University of Texas at Tyler

B/C

R+0.3%

8.2%

D+8.2%

State	Polls	Result	Polls v. Results (Bias)	# Polls
Texas	D+2.7%	R+5.5%	D+8.2%	9

Rutgers University

B/C

+0%

8.2%

D+8.2%

State	Polls	Result	Polls v. Results (Bias)	# Polls
New Jersey	D+24%	D+15.8%	D+8.2%	2

Cherry Communications

B/C

R+0.5%

8.3%

D+8.3%

State	Polls	Result	Polls v. Results (Bias)	# Polls
Florida	D+5%	R+3.3%	D+8.3%	1

Moore Information

B/C

R+0.7%

8.4%

D+8.4%

State	Polls	Result	Polls v. Results (Bias)	# Polls
Alabama	R+17%	R+25.4%	D+8.4%	1

Spry Strategies

B/C

R+0.3%

8.8%

R+3.3%

State	Polls	Result	Polls v. Results (Bias)	# Polls
California	D+17.2%	D+29.2%	R+12%	1
Idaho	R+25.2%	R+30.7%	D+5.5%	1

Harstad Strategic Research Inc.

B/C

D+0.6%

D+9%

State	Polls	Result	Polls v. Results (Bias)	# Polls
Alaska	R+1%	R+10%	D+9%	1

Saint Leo University

C/D

D+1.8%

9.3%

D+9.3%

State	Polls	Result	Polls v. Results (Bias)	# Polls
Florida	D+6%	R+3.3%	D+9.3%	1

Montana State University Billings

B/C

D+0.3%

9.3%

D+9.3%

State	Polls	Result	Polls v. Results (Bias)	# Polls
Montana	R+7%	R+16.3%	D+9.3%	1

TIPP

9.4%

D+9.4%

State	Polls	Result	Polls v. Results (Bias)	# Polls
Florida	D+11%	R+3.3%	D+14.3%	1
Michigan	D+13%	D+2.8%	D+10.2%	1
Pennsylvania	D+5%	D+1.2%	D+3.8%	1

The Tyson Group

B/C

+0%

9.5%

D+9.5%

State	Polls	Result	Polls v. Results (Bias)	# Polls
Louisiana	R+6%	R+18.6%	D+12.6%	1
Mississippi	R+10%	R+16.5%	D+6.5%	1
Texas	D+4%	R+5.5%	D+9.5%	1

Kiaer Research

10.1%

D+10.1%

State	Polls	Result	Polls v. Results (Bias)	# Polls
Michigan	D+12.9%	D+2.8%	D+10.1%	1

Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group

B/C

D+1.3%

10.1%

D+10.1%

State	Polls	Result	Polls v. Results (Bias)	# Polls
Georgia	D+7%	D+0.2%	D+6.8%	1
Missouri	R+2%	R+15.4%	D+13.4%	1

Remington Research Group

C-

D+1.2%

10.2%

D+10.2%

State	Polls	Result	Polls v. Results (Bias)	# Polls
Missouri	R+5.2%	R+15.4%	D+10.2%	4

American Research Group

R+0.2%

10.3%

D+10.3%

State	Polls	Result	Polls v. Results (Bias)	# Polls
New Hampshire	D+17.6%	D+7.3%	D+10.3%	2

Clearview Research

10.3%

D+10.3%

State	Polls	Result	Polls v. Results (Bias)	# Polls
Florida	D+7%	R+3.3%	D+10.3%	1

SoonerPoll

11%

D+11%

State	Polls	Result	Polls v. Results (Bias)	# Polls
Oklahoma	R+22.1%	R+33.1%	D+11%	3

Nielson Brothers Polling

C/D

D+2.9%

11.2%

D+11.2%

State	Polls	Result	Polls v. Results (Bias)	# Polls
South Dakota	R+15%	R+26.2%	D+11.2%	1

RABA Research

B/C

D+0.3%

12%

D+12%

State	Polls	Result	Polls v. Results (Bias)	# Polls
Iowa	D+3.8%	R+8.2%	D+12%	2

Braun Research

B/C

D+1.2%

12.2%

R+12.2%

State	Polls	Result	Polls v. Results (Bias)	# Polls
Vermont	D+23.2%	D+35.4%	R+12.2%	1

Bluegrass Community and Technical College

12.7%

D+12.7%

State	Polls	Result	Polls v. Results (Bias)	# Polls
Kentucky	R+13.2%	R+25.9%	D+12.7%	1

SSRS

B/C

D+1.2%

14.2%

D+14.2%

State	Polls	Result	Polls v. Results (Bias)	# Polls
Tennessee	R+9%	R+23.2%	D+14.2%	1

University of Wyoming

15.3%

D+15.3%

State	Polls	Result	Polls v. Results (Bias)	# Polls
Wyoming	R+28%	R+43.3%	D+15.3%	1

Research America Inc.

B/C

D+0.1%

15.9%

D+15.9%

State	Polls	Result	Polls v. Results (Bias)	# Polls
Virginia	D+17%	D+10.1%	D+6.9%	1
West Virginia	R+14%	R+38.9%	D+24.9%	1

DFM Research

B/C

D+1.5%

18.4%

D+18.4%

State	Polls	Result	Polls v. Results (Bias)	# Polls
North Dakota	R+14.9%	R+33.3%	D+18.4%	2

Triton Polling & Research

18.9%

D+18.9%

State	Polls	Result	Polls v. Results (Bias)	# Polls
West Virginia	R+20%	R+38.9%	D+18.9%	2

About

Every 2 minutes we get the latest vote count in every state. We then re-run our 20,000 simulations of the election to project who's most likely to win each state and the election overall. Your screen will update automatically with the latest info (so no need to hit refresh).

As we get more votes in, we'll defer to the vote count more (rather than the polls) and start narrowing the range our model tests in its simulations.

Some other more detailed info we'd like to note:

Vote Count vs Polls
The vote count slowly takes over the polls in our live projection, very slowly at first (as the early numbers may be all over the place), but as we get more of the total vote in, the vote count will take over. The chart below shows about how much of our projection is votes at each reporting level:

% Reporting	% of Projection That Is Votes
10%	0.4%
20%	1.4%
30%	3.9%
40%	9.3%
50%	19.6%
60%	35.7%
70%	55.1%
80%	72.7%
90%	85%

Calling States
A state isn't 'called' in our projections until a TV network calls it. If a state wasn't 'Safe' before the election, the live election night projection will max out at a 99.9% probability until it's actually called.

Original Forecast

A super simple, state poll based projection model for the 2020 Presidential election. Learn More

Win Probability
(if election today)

Biden

If Election Today

95.6%

335 Electoral Votes

Trump

If Election Today

4.3%

203 Electoral Votes

95.6%

4.3%

NE Districts

01 02 03

ME Districts

01 02

;

Electoral College Votes

Biden 335

Projection: 335

Estimated: 335.2

Polls: 351

Trump 203

Projection: 203

Estimated: 202.7

Polls: 187

Electoral Votes Over Time

Electoral College Simulations

States

Biden
State		Republican	Democrat	Diff	Change from 2016 Results	Tipping %	Projection	EC
Safe D	District of Columbia (3)	9.3%	89.4%	+80.1%	+6.3%		100%	3
	Massachusetts (11)	30.2%	64.7%	+34.5%	+7.3%		100%	14
	Vermont (3)	31.4%	64.7%	+33.3%	+6.9%		100%	17
	Hawaii (4)	32.3%	62.4%	+30.1%	+2.1%		100%	21
	Maryland (10)	33%	61%	+28%	+1.6%		100%	31
	New York (29)	33.4%	61.3%	+27.9%	+5.4%		100%	60
	California (55)	33.1%	60.4%	+27.3%	+2.8%		100%	115
	Rhode Island (4)	36.8%	61.4%	+24.6%	+9.1%		100%	119
	Washington (12)	36.2%	58.2%	+22%	+6.3%		100%	131
	Connecticut (7)	34.2%	55.4%	+21.2%	+7.6%		100%	138
	Maine CD-1 (1)	37.3%	57.6%	+20.3%	+12.4%		100%	139
	New Jersey (14)	37.9%	57.7%	+19.8%	+5.8%		100%	153
	Delaware (3)	40.6%	57.8%	+17.2%	+5.8%		100%	156
	Oregon (7)	40.7%	56.7%	+16%	+5%	0.1%	100%	163
	Colorado (9)	41%	53%	+12%	+7.1%	1.5%	100%	172
	Maine (2)	41%	53%	+12%	+9%	0.4%	100%	174
	Illinois (20)	42.7%	54.4%	+11.7%	+5.4%	0.5%	100%	194
	New Mexico (5)	42.1%	53.8%	+11.7%	+3.5%	0.9%	100%	199
	Virginia (13)	42.2%	52.8%	+10.6%	+5.3%	3.3%	100%	212
	New Hampshire (4)	43.6%	52.8%	+9.2%	+8.8%	1.6%	99.5%	216
Likely D	Michigan (16)	43.3%	50.7%	+7.4%	+7.6%	5%	97.3%	232
	Minnesota (10)	42.3%	50.7%	+8.4%	+6.9%	3.2%	96.9%	242
	Wisconsin (10)	44.4%	51.1%	+6.7%	+7.5%	8%	96.3%	252
	Pennsylvania (20) Tipping Point	45.1%	50.2%	+5.1%	+5.8%	48%	90.4%	272
	Nevada (6)	44.7%	49.1%	+4.4%	+2.9%	2.5%	83.2%	278
Lean D	Nebraska CD-2 (1)	45.4%	50.2%	+4.8%	+7%	0.3%	68.5%	279
Lean D	Florida (29)	46.8%	48.9%	+2.1%	+3.3%	9.1%	67.8%	308
Toss Up	Arizona (11)	46%	48.5%	+2.5%	+6%	3.3%	61.5%	319
	North Carolina (15)	46.9%	48.6%	+1.7%	+5.4%	3.9%	59.9%	334
	Maine CD-2 (1)	45.6%	48.3%	+2.7%	+13%	0.3%	59.4%	335
	Iowa (6)	47.3%	46.6%	+0.7%	+8.7%	0.9%	57.7%	203
	Georgia (16)	47.4%	47.5%	+0.1%	+5.2%	2.7%	58.5%	197
	Ohio (18)	48%	46.9%	+1.1%	+7%	2.7%	64.1%	181
Lean R	Nebraska CD-1 (1)	47.9%	46.1%	+1.8%	+18.9%	0.1%	77%	163
Lean R	Texas (38)	48.5%	47%	+1.5%	+7.5%	1.8%	77.3%	162
Likely R	Alaska (3)	50.8%	42.6%	+8.2%	+6.5%	0.1%	97.5%	124
Safe R	Montana (3)	51.1%	44.5%	+6.6%	+13.8%	0.1%	99.9%	121
	South Carolina (9)	51.4%	43.4%	+8%	+6.3%		100%	118
	Missouri (10)	52.5%	43.7%	+8.8%	+9.8%		100%	109
	Indiana (11)	52.2%	41.4%	+10.8%	+8.1%		100%	99
	Utah (6)	52.7%	40.7%	+12%	+6.1%		100%	88
	Kansas (6)	52.9%	40.9%	+12%	+8.6%		100%	82
	Nebraska (2)	57.8%	40.6%	+17.2%	+7.9%		100%	76
	Tennessee (11)	58%	40.2%	+17.8%	+8.2%		100%	74
	Kentucky (8)	56.8%	38.6%	+18.2%	+11.6%		100%	63
	South Dakota (3)	56.8%	37.9%	+18.9%	+10.9%		100%	55
	Alabama (9)	58.2%	37.6%	+20.6%	+7.1%		100%	52
	Mississippi (6)	59.3%	37.9%	+21.4%	+3.6%		100%	43
	North Dakota (3)	58.9%	36.5%	+22.4%	+13.3%		100%	37
	Louisiana (8)	60.4%	35%	+25.4%	+5.8%		100%	34
	Idaho (4)	61.8%	36.2%	+25.6%	+6.2%		100%	26
	Oklahoma (7)	62.5%	34.6%	+27.9%	+8.5%		100%	22
	West Virginia (5)	62.4%	34%	+28.4%	+13.7%		100%	15
	Arkansas (6)	62.4%	33.9%	+28.5%	+1.6%		100%	10
	Wyoming (3)	65.3%	30.6%	+34.7%	+11.1%		100%	4
	Nebraska CD-3 (1)	73.9%	19.7%	+54.2%	+0%		100%	1
	Total	43.5% 203 Electoral Votes	51.4% 335 Electoral Votes	D +7.9% D +132 Electoral Votes	+5.8% +209 Electoral Votes		95.6%	335

Clinton (2016) - Polls on Election Day
State		Republican	Democrat	Diff	Change from 2020 Polls	Tipping %	Projection	EC
Safe D	District of Columbia (3)	14.3%	72.8%	+58.5%	+21.6%		100%	3
	Vermont (3)	25.1%	54.3%	+29.2%	+4.1%		100%	6
	California (55)	31.2%	56.1%	+24.9%	+2.4%		100%	61
	Massachusetts (11)	30.8%	54%	+23.2%	+11.3%		100%	72
	Maryland (10)	32.1%	54.9%	+22.8%	+5.2%		100%	82
	Hawaii (4)	31.6%	51%	+19.4%	+10.7%		100%	86
	New York (29)	34.5%	52.3%	+17.8%	+10.1%		100%	115
	Illinois (20)	36.4%	49.7%	+13.3%	+1.6%		100%	135
	Rhode Island (4)	35.5%	49.1%	+13.6%	+11%		99.9%	139
	Washington (12)	36.4%	48.5%	+12.1%	+9.9%		98.4%	151
	New Jersey (14)	37.6%	48.8%	+11.2%	+8.6%		98.2%	165
Likely D	Connecticut (7)	38.3%	48.5%	+10.2%	+11%		96.6%	172
	Maine CD-1 (1)	37.9%	49.5%	+11.6%	+8.7%		95.1%	173
	Oregon (7)	36.5%	47.2%	+10.7%	+5.3%		95%	180
	Delaware (3)	36.7%	46.8%	+10.1%	+7.1%		93.4%	183
	Maine (2)	37%	46.5%	+9.5%	+2.5%		92%	185
	Virginia (13)	40.5%	46.7%	+6.2%	+4.4%		84.6%	198
	Wisconsin (10)	40.2%	46%	+5.8%	+0.9%		81.5%	208
	New Mexico (5)	36.6%	43.6%	+7%	+4.7%		80.6%	213
Lean D	Colorado (9)	39.5%	44.7%	+5.2%	+6.8%		77.1%	222
	Minnesota (10)	37.1%	42.8%	+5.7%	+2.7%		75.2%	232
	New Hampshire (4)	41%	45.1%	+4.1%	+5.1%		73.4%	236
	Pennsylvania (20)	43.3%	46.3%	+3%	+2.1%		70.5%	256
	Michigan (16) Tipping Point	41%	44.2%	+3.2%	+4.2%		68.4%	272
Toss Up	Nevada (6)	43.4%	44.1%	+0.7%	+3.7%		54.6%	278
	North Carolina (15)	45.3%	45.9%	+0.6%	+1.1%		54.4%	293
	Florida (29)	46%	45.9%	+0.1%	+2.2%		50.5%	245
	Maine CD-2 (1)	42.6%	40.7%	+1.9%	+4.6%		57.8%	216
	Ohio (18)	44.7%	43.3%	+1.4%	+0.3%		58.8%	215
	Arizona (11)	44.5%	42.6%	+1.9%	+4.4%		61.6%	197
	Iowa (6)	43.3%	41.3%	+2%	+1.3%		61.6%	186
Lean R	Utah (6)	36.6%	28%	+8.6%	+3.4%		75.7%	180
Likely R	Nebraska CD-2 (1)	48.3%	40.8%	+7.5%	+12.3%		80.7%	174
	Alaska (3)	44.5%	36.7%	+7.8%	+0.4%		84.3%	173
	Georgia (16)	47.9%	42.5%	+5.4%	+5.5%		85.5%	170
	Kansas (6)	46.7%	38.2%	+8.5%	+3.5%		90.5%	154
	Missouri (10)	47.4%	39%	+8.4%	+0.4%		92%	148
	South Carolina (9)	48.5%	40.5%	+8%	-		93.4%	138
	Indiana (11)	48.1%	37.5%	+10.6%	+0.2%		96.4%	129
	Texas (38)	48.8%	38.1%	+10.7%	+9.2%		97.9%	118
Safe R	Nebraska CD-1 (1)	50.7%	27.4%	+23.3%	+21.5%		98.9%	80
	Montana (3)	48.1%	33.6%	+14.5%	+7.9%		99.5%	79
	Tennessee (11)	49.6%	36.1%	+13.5%	+4.3%		99.9%	76
	Arkansas (6)	51.8%	35.2%	+16.6%	+11.9%		100%	65
	South Dakota (3)	49.2%	31.7%	+17.5%	+1.4%		100%	59
	Nebraska (2)	50.4%	32.5%	+17.9%	+0.7%		100%	56
	Kentucky (8)	53.4%	35.3%	+18.1%	+0.1%		100%	54
	Mississippi (6)	53.7%	35.4%	+18.3%	+3.1%		100%	46
	Idaho (4)	48.6%	29.7%	+18.9%	+6.7%		100%	40
	Louisiana (8)	53.7%	34.5%	+19.2%	+6.2%		100%	36
	Oklahoma (7)	54.2%	31.4%	+22.8%	+5.1%		100%	28
	Alabama (9)	57.1%	33.1%	+24%	+3.4%		100%	21
	North Dakota (3)	52.7%	28.5%	+24.2%	+1.8%		100%	12
	West Virginia (5)	57.1%	31.5%	+25.6%	+2.8%		100%	9
	Wyoming (3)	59.1%	25.4%	+33.7%	+1%		100%	4
	Nebraska CD-3 (1)	62.8%	18.4%	+44.4%	+9.8%		100%	1
	Total	42.4% 245 Electoral Votes	45.2% 293 Electoral Votes	D +2.8% D +48 Electoral Votes	+5.1%		74.1%	293

Change from 2016

Here we see how each state currently compares to 2016 (both the 2016 polling and results).

The thick line the arrows are pointing to marks the current 2020 polling. The smaller, lighter lines are the 2016 polling/results.
The bar and arrow between them shows how the numbers have swung. The bar/arrow will be blue if it's now more Democratic or red it it's more Republican.
More blue bars means the country has swung more Democratic, more red bars means it's more Republican.

You can click '2016 Polls' or '2020 Results' just below this to toggle them on/off for a clearer view.

For context, in 2016 the average difference between the result and the polls R+3.5%. In the swing states that average was R+2.3%.
The average swing from 2012 to 2016 was R+4.1%. In the swing states that average was R+4.4%.

Polls

National Polling Average

51.4%

Biden (+7.9%)

43.5%

Trump

Live Election Night Forecast

History

Called States

Election Night Forecast Changes

Latest Update

Electoral College Votes

Electoral College Simulations

Popular Vote

Updates

Tipping Point States

States

Pollsters

Large Pollsters

Smaller Pollsters

About

Original Forecast

Win Probability (if election today)

Electoral College Votes

Electoral Votes Over Time

Electoral College Simulations

States

Change from 2016

Polls

National Polling Average

Win Probability
(if election today)