Alabama

If Election Today more aggressive + 2016 Polling Error assumes same polling errors
Test Polling Swings see how a swing changes the model

Safe Trump

Win Probability

Biden
Trump
Biden
0%
Polls: 37.3%
Trump
100%
Polls: 58% +20.7%
100%



Swing

 
+7%
From 2016 Results
+3.2%
From 2016 Polls
 





Polls

 
37.3%
Biden
58%
Trump (+20.7%)
 

Date Pollster Rating Voters Sample Size Republican Democrat Diff Diff (Adj) Weight
10/26/20 9/27-10/25 SurveyMonkey D- LV 3,122 Trump
61		 Biden
38		 +23% +28% 0.13
10/26/20 9/27-10/25 SurveyMonkey D- RV 3,122 Trump
57		 Biden
41		 +16% +21% -
10/25/20 9/27-10/24 SurveyMonkey D- LV 3,120 Trump
61		 Biden
38		 +23% +28% 0.11
10/25/20 9/27-10/24 SurveyMonkey D- RV 3,120 Trump
57		 Biden
41		 +16% +21% -
10/24/20 9/26-10/23 SurveyMonkey D- LV 3,093 Trump
61		 Biden
38		 +23% +28% 0.09
10/24/20 9/26-10/23 SurveyMonkey D- RV 3,093 Trump
57		 Biden
41		 +16% +21% -
10/23/20 9/25-10/22 SurveyMonkey D- LV 3,038 Trump
61		 Biden
38		 +23% +28% 0.07
10/23/20 9/25-10/22 SurveyMonkey D- RV 3,038 Trump
57		 Biden
41		 +16% +21% -
10/22/20 9/24-10/21 SurveyMonkey D- LV 2,985 Trump
60		 Biden
38		 +22% +27% 0.05
10/22/20 9/24-10/21 SurveyMonkey D- RV 2,985 Trump
57		 Biden
41		 +16% +21% -
10/21/20 9/23-10/20 SurveyMonkey D- LV 2,890 Trump
60		 Biden
38		 +22% +27% -
10/21/20 9/23-10/20 SurveyMonkey D- RV 2,890 Trump
56		 Biden
41		 +15% +20% -
10/20/20 9/21-10/19 SurveyMonkey D- LV 2,781 Trump
60		 Biden
38		 +22% +27% -
10/20/20 9/21-10/19 SurveyMonkey D- RV 2,781 Trump
56		 Biden
41		 +15% +20% -
10/19/20 10/11-10/14 Moore Information B/C LV 504 Trump
55		 Biden
38		 +17% +16.2% 0.64
10/19/20 9/21-10/18 SurveyMonkey D- LV 2,710 Trump
60		 Biden
38		 +22% +27% -
10/19/20 9/21-10/18 SurveyMonkey D- RV 2,710 Trump
56		 Biden
41		 +15% +20% -
10/18/20 9/20-10/17 SurveyMonkey D- LV 2,675 Trump
59		 Biden
39		 +20% +25% -
10/18/20 9/20-10/17 SurveyMonkey D- RV 2,675 Trump
56		 Biden
42		 +14% +19% -
10/17/20 9/18-10/16 SurveyMonkey D- LV 2,591 Trump
59		 Biden
39		 +20% +25% -
10/17/20 9/18-10/16 SurveyMonkey D- RV 2,591 Trump
56		 Biden
42		 +14% +19% -
10/16/20 9/18-10/15 SurveyMonkey D- LV 2,449 Trump
59		 Biden
39		 +20% +25% -
10/16/20 9/18-10/15 SurveyMonkey D- RV 2,449 Trump
55		 Biden
42		 +13% +18% -
10/15/20 9/17-10/14 SurveyMonkey D- LV 2,265 Trump
59		 Biden
39		 +20% +25% -
10/15/20 9/17-10/14 SurveyMonkey D- RV 2,265 Trump
55		 Biden
42		 +13% +18% -
10/14/20 9/16-10/13 SurveyMonkey D- LV 2,149 Trump
59		 Biden
39		 +20% +25% -
10/14/20 9/16-10/13 SurveyMonkey D- RV 2,149 Trump
55		 Biden
42		 +13% +18% -
10/13/20 9/15-10/12 SurveyMonkey D- LV 2,070 Trump
59		 Biden
39		 +20% +25% -
10/13/20 9/15-10/12 SurveyMonkey D- RV 2,070 Trump
55		 Biden
42		 +13% +18% -
10/5/20 9/30-10/3 Auburn University at Montgomery RV 1,072 Trump
56.8		 Biden
37.2		 +19.6% +19.6% 0.17
10/3/20 6/8-6/30 SurveyMonkey D- RV 649 Trump
57.3		 Biden
39.1		 +18.2% +23.2% -
10/3/20 6/8-6/30 SurveyMonkey D- LV 649 Trump
62.7		 Biden
35.2		 +27.5% +32.5% -
10/3/20 7/1-7/31 SurveyMonkey D- RV 1,583 Trump
58.4		 Biden
38.9		 +19.6% +24.6% -
10/3/20 7/1-7/31 SurveyMonkey D- LV 1,583 Trump
63		 Biden
34.9		 +28.1% +33.1% -
10/3/20 8/1-8/31 SurveyMonkey D- RV 1,220 Trump
60.1		 Biden
36.7		 +23.4% +28.4% -
10/3/20 8/1-8/31 SurveyMonkey D- LV 1,220 Trump
65		 Biden
33		 +32% +37% -
10/2/20 9/1-9/30 SurveyMonkey D- RV 1,354 Trump
54.8		 Biden
42.2		 +12.5% +17.5% -
10/2/20 9/1-9/30 SurveyMonkey D- LV 1,354 Trump
58.7		 Biden
39		 +19.7% +24.7% -
9/21/20 8/17-8/19 The Tyson Group B/C LV 600 Trump
48		 Biden
44		 +4% +4% -
8/4/20 7/24-8/2 Morning Consult B/C LV 609 Trump
58		 Biden
36		 +22% +22.2% -
7/10/20 7/2-7/9 Auburn University at Montgomery RV 558 Trump
55		 Biden
40.6		 +14.4% +14.4% -
6/22/20 5/14-5/18 FM3 Research B/C LV 601 Trump
53		 Biden
39		 +14% +14.6% -
2/11/20 2/4-2/6 Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy B+ RV 625 Trump
58		 Biden
38		 +20% +19.4% 0.06
1/28/20 1/7-1/9 WPA Intelligence B/C LV 500 Trump
59		 Biden
38		 +21% +20.2% -


Past Results

Year Candidates Republican Democrat Diff
2016 Trump v Clinton 62.1 34.4 +27.7%
2012 Romney v Obama 60.6 38.4 +22.2%
2008 McCain v Obama 60.3 38.7 +21.6%
2004 Bush v Kerry 62.5 36.8 +25.6%
2000 Bush v Gore 56.5 41.6 +14.9%




Updates

Last Updated: 10/27 9:08 PM EDT
10/19
Alabama polls jumped 3% toward Biden (was R+22.7%, now R+19.7%)
10/3
Alabama polls jumped 7.6% toward Biden (was R+26.1%, now R+18.5%)
9/21
Alabama polls jumped 4.3% toward Biden (was R+28.1%, now R+23.8%)
8/4
Alabama polls jumped 2% toward Biden (was R+27.2%, now R+25.2%)
6/22
Alabama polls jumped 1.9% toward Trump (was R+19.8%, now R+21.7%)