Alabama

Live Election Night Forecast

Last Updated: 5/15 12:38 AM EDT

Winner

Trump

Election Night Forecast Changes

Here you can see how the forecast has in Alabama changed throughout the evening (and perhaps coming days?), all times are EST.

Alabama Pre-Election Forecast

Safe Trump

Win Probability

Biden

Polls: 37.5%

Trump

100%

Polls: 58% +20.5%

100%

Swing

+7.2%

From 2016 Results

+3.4%

From 2016 Polls

Polls

37.5%

Biden

58%

Trump (+20.5%)

Date	Pollster	Rating	Voters	Sample Size	Republican	Democrat	Diff	Diff (Adj)	Weight
11/2/20 10/27-11/1	Swayable	D-	LV	330	Trump 55	Biden 37.8	+17.2%	+17.2%	0.56
11/2/20 10/20-11/1	SurveyMonkey	D-	LV	1,608	Trump 62	Biden 36	+26%	+31%	0.24
11/2/20 10/20-11/1	SurveyMonkey	D-	RV	1,608	Trump 58	Biden 39	+19%	+24%	-
11/1/20 10/27-11/1	Data for Progress	B-	LV	1,045	Trump 58	Biden 38	+20%	+20%	1.07
11/1/20 10/18-10/31	SurveyMonkey	D-	LV	1,714	Trump 60	Biden 38	+22%	+27%	0.22
11/1/20 10/18-10/31	SurveyMonkey	D-	RV	1,714	Trump 56	Biden 41	+15%	+20%	-
10/31/20 10/17-10/30	SurveyMonkey	D-	LV	1,752	Trump 60	Biden 38	+22%	+27%	0.19
10/31/20 10/17-10/30	SurveyMonkey	D-	RV	1,752	Trump 56	Biden 41	+15%	+20%	-
10/30/20 10/16-10/29	SurveyMonkey	D-	LV	1,786	Trump 60	Biden 38	+22%	+27%	0.17
10/30/20 10/16-10/29	SurveyMonkey	D-	RV	1,786	Trump 56	Biden 41	+15%	+20%	-
10/30/20 10/23-10/26	Swayable	D-	LV	266	Trump 55.8	Biden 37.2	+18.6%	+18.6%	0.4
10/29/20 10/1-10/28	SurveyMonkey	D-	LV	3,363	Trump 61	Biden 37	+24%	+29%	-
10/29/20 10/1-10/28	SurveyMonkey	D-	RV	3,363	Trump 57	Biden 41	+16%	+21%	-
10/29/20 10/23-10/28	Auburn University at Montgomery		LV	853	Trump 58.1	Biden 38.9	+19.2%	+19.2%	0.61
10/28/20 9/30-10/27	SurveyMonkey	D-	LV	3,255	Trump 61	Biden 37	+24%	+29%	-
10/28/20 9/30-10/27	SurveyMonkey	D-	RV	3,255	Trump 57	Biden 41	+16%	+21%	-
10/26/20 9/27-10/25	SurveyMonkey	D-	LV	3,122	Trump 61	Biden 38	+23%	+28%	-
10/26/20 9/27-10/25	SurveyMonkey	D-	RV	3,122	Trump 57	Biden 41	+16%	+21%	-
10/25/20 9/27-10/24	SurveyMonkey	D-	LV	3,120	Trump 61	Biden 38	+23%	+28%	-
10/25/20 9/27-10/24	SurveyMonkey	D-	RV	3,120	Trump 57	Biden 41	+16%	+21%	-
10/24/20 9/26-10/23	SurveyMonkey	D-	LV	3,093	Trump 61	Biden 38	+23%	+28%	-
10/24/20 9/26-10/23	SurveyMonkey	D-	RV	3,093	Trump 57	Biden 41	+16%	+21%	-
10/23/20 9/25-10/22	SurveyMonkey	D-	LV	3,038	Trump 61	Biden 38	+23%	+28%	-
10/23/20 9/25-10/22	SurveyMonkey	D-	RV	3,038	Trump 57	Biden 41	+16%	+21%	-
10/22/20 9/24-10/21	SurveyMonkey	D-	LV	2,985	Trump 60	Biden 38	+22%	+27%	-
10/22/20 9/24-10/21	SurveyMonkey	D-	RV	2,985	Trump 57	Biden 41	+16%	+21%	-
10/21/20 9/23-10/20	SurveyMonkey	D-	LV	2,890	Trump 60	Biden 38	+22%	+27%	-
10/21/20 9/23-10/20	SurveyMonkey	D-	RV	2,890	Trump 56	Biden 41	+15%	+20%	-
10/20/20 9/21-10/19	SurveyMonkey	D-	LV	2,781	Trump 60	Biden 38	+22%	+27%	-
10/20/20 9/21-10/19	SurveyMonkey	D-	RV	2,781	Trump 56	Biden 41	+15%	+20%	-
10/19/20 10/11-10/14	Moore Information	B/C	LV	504	Trump 55	Biden 38	+17%	+16.2%	0.47
10/19/20 9/21-10/18	SurveyMonkey	D-	LV	2,710	Trump 60	Biden 38	+22%	+27%	-
10/19/20 9/21-10/18	SurveyMonkey	D-	RV	2,710	Trump 56	Biden 41	+15%	+20%	-
10/18/20 9/20-10/17	SurveyMonkey	D-	LV	2,675	Trump 59	Biden 39	+20%	+25%	-
10/18/20 9/20-10/17	SurveyMonkey	D-	RV	2,675	Trump 56	Biden 42	+14%	+19%	-
10/17/20 9/18-10/16	SurveyMonkey	D-	LV	2,591	Trump 59	Biden 39	+20%	+25%	-
10/17/20 9/18-10/16	SurveyMonkey	D-	RV	2,591	Trump 56	Biden 42	+14%	+19%	-
10/16/20 9/18-10/15	SurveyMonkey	D-	LV	2,449	Trump 59	Biden 39	+20%	+25%	-
10/16/20 9/18-10/15	SurveyMonkey	D-	RV	2,449	Trump 55	Biden 42	+13%	+18%	-
10/15/20 9/17-10/14	SurveyMonkey	D-	LV	2,265	Trump 59	Biden 39	+20%	+25%	-
10/15/20 9/17-10/14	SurveyMonkey	D-	RV	2,265	Trump 55	Biden 42	+13%	+18%	-
10/14/20 9/16-10/13	SurveyMonkey	D-	LV	2,149	Trump 59	Biden 39	+20%	+25%	-
10/14/20 9/16-10/13	SurveyMonkey	D-	RV	2,149	Trump 55	Biden 42	+13%	+18%	-
10/13/20 9/15-10/12	SurveyMonkey	D-	LV	2,070	Trump 59	Biden 39	+20%	+25%	-
10/13/20 9/15-10/12	SurveyMonkey	D-	RV	2,070	Trump 55	Biden 42	+13%	+18%	-
10/5/20 9/30-10/3	Auburn University at Montgomery		RV	1,072	Trump 56.8	Biden 37.2	+19.6%	+19.6%	-
10/3/20 6/8-6/30	SurveyMonkey	D-	RV	649	Trump 57.3	Biden 39.1	+18.2%	+23.2%	-
10/3/20 6/8-6/30	SurveyMonkey	D-	LV	649	Trump 62.7	Biden 35.2	+27.5%	+32.5%	-
10/3/20 7/1-7/31	SurveyMonkey	D-	RV	1,583	Trump 58.4	Biden 38.9	+19.6%	+24.6%	-
10/3/20 7/1-7/31	SurveyMonkey	D-	LV	1,583	Trump 63	Biden 34.9	+28.1%	+33.1%	-
10/3/20 8/1-8/31	SurveyMonkey	D-	RV	1,220	Trump 60.1	Biden 36.7	+23.4%	+28.4%	-
10/3/20 8/1-8/31	SurveyMonkey	D-	LV	1,220	Trump 65	Biden 33	+32%	+37%	-
10/2/20 9/1-9/30	SurveyMonkey	D-	RV	1,354	Trump 54.8	Biden 42.2	+12.5%	+17.5%	-
10/2/20 9/1-9/30	SurveyMonkey	D-	LV	1,354	Trump 58.7	Biden 39	+19.7%	+24.7%	-
9/21/20 8/17-8/19	The Tyson Group	B/C	LV	600	Trump 48	Biden 44	+4%	+4%	-
8/4/20 7/24-8/2	Morning Consult	B/C	LV	609	Trump 58	Biden 36	+22%	+22.2%	-
7/10/20 7/2-7/9	Auburn University at Montgomery		RV	558	Trump 55	Biden 40.6	+14.4%	+14.4%	-
6/22/20 5/14-5/18	FM3 Research	B/C	LV	601	Trump 53	Biden 39	+14%	+14.6%	-
2/11/20 2/4-2/6	Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy	B+	RV	625	Trump 58	Biden 38	+20%	+19.4%	-
1/28/20 1/7-1/9	WPA Intelligence	B/C	LV	500	Trump 59	Biden 38	+21%	+20.2%	-

Past Results

Year	Candidates	Republican	Democrat	Diff
2016	Trump v Clinton	62.1	34.4	+27.7%
2012	Romney v Obama	60.6	38.4	+22.2%
2008	McCain v Obama	60.3	38.7	+21.6%
2004	Bush v Kerry	62.5	36.8	+25.6%
2000	Bush v Gore	56.5	41.6	+14.9%

Updates

Last Updated: 11/3 1:08 AM EDT

10/19

Alabama polls jumped 3% toward Biden (was R+22.7%, now R+19.7%)

10/3

Alabama polls jumped 7.6% toward Biden (was R+26.1%, now R+18.5%)

9/21

Alabama polls jumped 4.3% toward Biden (was R+28.1%, now R+23.8%)

8/4

Alabama polls jumped 2% toward Biden (was R+27.2%, now R+25.2%)

6/22

Alabama polls jumped 1.9% toward Trump (was R+19.8%, now R+21.7%)