Alabama

Live Election Night Forecast

Last Updated: 11/21 2:56 PM EST
Winner
Trump
Trump

Election Night Forecast Changes

Here you can see how the forecast has in Alabama changed throughout the evening (and perhaps coming days?), all times are EST.





Alabama Pre-Election Forecast

If Election Today more aggressive + 2016 Polling Error assumes same polling errors

Safe Trump

Win Probability

Biden
Trump
Biden
0%
Polls: 37.5%
Trump
100%
Polls: 58% +20.5%
100%



Swing

 
+7.2%
From 2016 Results
+3.4%
From 2016 Polls
 





Polls

 
37.5%
Biden
58%
Trump (+20.5%)
 

Date Pollster Rating Voters Sample Size Republican Democrat Diff Diff (Adj) Weight
11/2/20 10/27-11/1 Swayable D- LV 330 Trump
55
Biden
37.8
+17.2% +17.2% 0.56
11/2/20 10/20-11/1 SurveyMonkey D- LV 1,608 Trump
62
Biden
36
+26% +31% 0.24
11/2/20 10/20-11/1 SurveyMonkey D- RV 1,608 Trump
58
Biden
39
+19% +24% -
11/1/20 10/27-11/1 Data for Progress B- LV 1,045 Trump
58
Biden
38
+20% +20% 1.07
11/1/20 10/18-10/31 SurveyMonkey D- LV 1,714 Trump
60
Biden
38
+22% +27% 0.22
11/1/20 10/18-10/31 SurveyMonkey D- RV 1,714 Trump
56
Biden
41
+15% +20% -
10/31/20 10/17-10/30 SurveyMonkey D- LV 1,752 Trump
60
Biden
38
+22% +27% 0.19
10/31/20 10/17-10/30 SurveyMonkey D- RV 1,752 Trump
56
Biden
41
+15% +20% -
10/30/20 10/16-10/29 SurveyMonkey D- LV 1,786 Trump
60
Biden
38
+22% +27% 0.17
10/30/20 10/16-10/29 SurveyMonkey D- RV 1,786 Trump
56
Biden
41
+15% +20% -
10/30/20 10/23-10/26 Swayable D- LV 266 Trump
55.8
Biden
37.2
+18.6% +18.6% 0.4
10/29/20 10/1-10/28 SurveyMonkey D- LV 3,363 Trump
61
Biden
37
+24% +29% -
10/29/20 10/1-10/28 SurveyMonkey D- RV 3,363 Trump
57
Biden
41
+16% +21% -
10/29/20 10/23-10/28 Auburn University at Montgomery LV 853 Trump
58.1
Biden
38.9
+19.2% +19.2% 0.61
10/28/20 9/30-10/27 SurveyMonkey D- LV 3,255 Trump
61
Biden
37
+24% +29% -
10/28/20 9/30-10/27 SurveyMonkey D- RV 3,255 Trump
57
Biden
41
+16% +21% -
10/26/20 9/27-10/25 SurveyMonkey D- LV 3,122 Trump
61
Biden
38
+23% +28% -
10/26/20 9/27-10/25 SurveyMonkey D- RV 3,122 Trump
57
Biden
41
+16% +21% -
10/25/20 9/27-10/24 SurveyMonkey D- LV 3,120 Trump
61
Biden
38
+23% +28% -
10/25/20 9/27-10/24 SurveyMonkey D- RV 3,120 Trump
57
Biden
41
+16% +21% -
10/24/20 9/26-10/23 SurveyMonkey D- LV 3,093 Trump
61
Biden
38
+23% +28% -
10/24/20 9/26-10/23 SurveyMonkey D- RV 3,093 Trump
57
Biden
41
+16% +21% -
10/23/20 9/25-10/22 SurveyMonkey D- LV 3,038 Trump
61
Biden
38
+23% +28% -
10/23/20 9/25-10/22 SurveyMonkey D- RV 3,038 Trump
57
Biden
41
+16% +21% -
10/22/20 9/24-10/21 SurveyMonkey D- LV 2,985 Trump
60
Biden
38
+22% +27% -
10/22/20 9/24-10/21 SurveyMonkey D- RV 2,985 Trump
57
Biden
41
+16% +21% -
10/21/20 9/23-10/20 SurveyMonkey D- LV 2,890 Trump
60
Biden
38
+22% +27% -
10/21/20 9/23-10/20 SurveyMonkey D- RV 2,890 Trump
56
Biden
41
+15% +20% -
10/20/20 9/21-10/19 SurveyMonkey D- LV 2,781 Trump
60
Biden
38
+22% +27% -
10/20/20 9/21-10/19 SurveyMonkey D- RV 2,781 Trump
56
Biden
41
+15% +20% -
10/19/20 10/11-10/14 Moore Information B/C LV 504 Trump
55
Biden
38
+17% +16.2% 0.47
10/19/20 9/21-10/18 SurveyMonkey D- LV 2,710 Trump
60
Biden
38
+22% +27% -
10/19/20 9/21-10/18 SurveyMonkey D- RV 2,710 Trump
56
Biden
41
+15% +20% -
10/18/20 9/20-10/17 SurveyMonkey D- LV 2,675 Trump
59
Biden
39
+20% +25% -
10/18/20 9/20-10/17 SurveyMonkey D- RV 2,675 Trump
56
Biden
42
+14% +19% -
10/17/20 9/18-10/16 SurveyMonkey D- LV 2,591 Trump
59
Biden
39
+20% +25% -
10/17/20 9/18-10/16 SurveyMonkey D- RV 2,591 Trump
56
Biden
42
+14% +19% -
10/16/20 9/18-10/15 SurveyMonkey D- LV 2,449 Trump
59
Biden
39
+20% +25% -
10/16/20 9/18-10/15 SurveyMonkey D- RV 2,449 Trump
55
Biden
42
+13% +18% -
10/15/20 9/17-10/14 SurveyMonkey D- LV 2,265 Trump
59
Biden
39
+20% +25% -
10/15/20 9/17-10/14 SurveyMonkey D- RV 2,265 Trump
55
Biden
42
+13% +18% -
10/14/20 9/16-10/13 SurveyMonkey D- LV 2,149 Trump
59
Biden
39
+20% +25% -
10/14/20 9/16-10/13 SurveyMonkey D- RV 2,149 Trump
55
Biden
42
+13% +18% -
10/13/20 9/15-10/12 SurveyMonkey D- LV 2,070 Trump
59
Biden
39
+20% +25% -
10/13/20 9/15-10/12 SurveyMonkey D- RV 2,070 Trump
55
Biden
42
+13% +18% -
10/5/20 9/30-10/3 Auburn University at Montgomery RV 1,072 Trump
56.8
Biden
37.2
+19.6% +19.6% -
10/3/20 6/8-6/30 SurveyMonkey D- RV 649 Trump
57.3
Biden
39.1
+18.2% +23.2% -
10/3/20 6/8-6/30 SurveyMonkey D- LV 649 Trump
62.7
Biden
35.2
+27.5% +32.5% -
10/3/20 7/1-7/31 SurveyMonkey D- RV 1,583 Trump
58.4
Biden
38.9
+19.6% +24.6% -
10/3/20 7/1-7/31 SurveyMonkey D- LV 1,583 Trump
63
Biden
34.9
+28.1% +33.1% -
10/3/20 8/1-8/31 SurveyMonkey D- RV 1,220 Trump
60.1
Biden
36.7
+23.4% +28.4% -
10/3/20 8/1-8/31 SurveyMonkey D- LV 1,220 Trump
65
Biden
33
+32% +37% -
10/2/20 9/1-9/30 SurveyMonkey D- RV 1,354 Trump
54.8
Biden
42.2
+12.5% +17.5% -
10/2/20 9/1-9/30 SurveyMonkey D- LV 1,354 Trump
58.7
Biden
39
+19.7% +24.7% -
9/21/20 8/17-8/19 The Tyson Group B/C LV 600 Trump
48
Biden
44
+4% +4% -
8/4/20 7/24-8/2 Morning Consult B/C LV 609 Trump
58
Biden
36
+22% +22.2% -
7/10/20 7/2-7/9 Auburn University at Montgomery RV 558 Trump
55
Biden
40.6
+14.4% +14.4% -
6/22/20 5/14-5/18 FM3 Research B/C LV 601 Trump
53
Biden
39
+14% +14.6% -
2/11/20 2/4-2/6 Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy B+ RV 625 Trump
58
Biden
38
+20% +19.4% -
1/28/20 1/7-1/9 WPA Intelligence B/C LV 500 Trump
59
Biden
38
+21% +20.2% -


Past Results

Year Candidates Republican Democrat Diff
2016 Trump v Clinton 62.1 34.4 +27.7%
2012 Romney v Obama 60.6 38.4 +22.2%
2008 McCain v Obama 60.3 38.7 +21.6%
2004 Bush v Kerry 62.5 36.8 +25.6%
2000 Bush v Gore 56.5 41.6 +14.9%




Updates

Last Updated: 11/3 1:08 AM EST
10/19
Alabama polls jumped 3% toward Biden (was R+22.7%, now R+19.7%)
10/3
Alabama polls jumped 7.6% toward Biden (was R+26.1%, now R+18.5%)
9/21
Alabama polls jumped 4.3% toward Biden (was R+28.1%, now R+23.8%)
8/4
Alabama polls jumped 2% toward Biden (was R+27.2%, now R+25.2%)
6/22
Alabama polls jumped 1.9% toward Trump (was R+19.8%, now R+21.7%)