Alaska

If Election Today more aggressive + 2016 Polling Error assumes same polling errors

Likely Trump

Win Probability

Biden
Trump
Biden
11.1%
Polls: 43%
Trump
88.9%
Polls: 49.1% +6.1%
11.1%
88.9%



Swing

 
+8.6%
From 2016 Results
+2.1%
From 2016 Polls
 



Testing

Standard Deviation: 3.206 Testing Range: +/- 7.44%




Tipping Point



0.1%
of the time





Polls

 
43%
Biden
49.1%
Trump (+6.1%)
 

Date Pollster Rating Voters Sample Size Republican Democrat Diff Diff (Adj) Weight
10/28/20 9/30-10/27 SurveyMonkey D- LV 1,131 Trump
54
Biden
44
+10% +15% 0.13
10/28/20 9/30-10/27 SurveyMonkey D- RV 1,131 Trump
53
Biden
44
+9% +14% -
10/26/20 9/28-10/25 SurveyMonkey D- LV 1,120 Trump
54
Biden
44
+10% +15% 0.09
10/26/20 9/28-10/25 SurveyMonkey D- RV 1,120 Trump
53
Biden
44
+9% +14% -
10/25/20 9/27-10/24 SurveyMonkey D- LV 1,083 Trump
53
Biden
45
+8% +13% 0.07
10/25/20 9/27-10/24 SurveyMonkey D- RV 1,083 Trump
52
Biden
45
+7% +12% -
10/24/20 9/25-10/23 SurveyMonkey D- LV 1,049 Trump
53
Biden
45
+8% +13% -
10/24/20 9/25-10/23 SurveyMonkey D- RV 1,049 Trump
52
Biden
45
+7% +12% -
10/23/20 9/25-10/22 SurveyMonkey D- LV 989 Trump
53
Biden
44
+9% +14% -
10/23/20 9/25-10/22 SurveyMonkey D- RV 989 Trump
52
Biden
44
+8% +13% -
10/22/20 9/23-10/21 SurveyMonkey D- LV 998 Trump
53
Biden
44
+9% +14% -
10/22/20 9/23-10/21 SurveyMonkey D- RV 998 Trump
52
Biden
44
+8% +13% -
10/21/20 9/23-10/20 SurveyMonkey D- LV 996 Trump
53
Biden
45
+8% +13% -
10/21/20 9/23-10/20 SurveyMonkey D- RV 996 Trump
52
Biden
45
+7% +12% -
10/21/20 10/19-10/20 Public Policy Polling B V 800 Trump
50
Biden
45
+5% +5.4% 0.88
10/20/20 9/22-10/19 SurveyMonkey D- LV 1,001 Trump
52
Biden
45
+7% +12% -
10/20/20 9/22-10/19 SurveyMonkey D- RV 1,001 Trump
51
Biden
46
+5% +10% -
10/19/20 9/20-10/18 SurveyMonkey D- LV 977 Trump
53
Biden
44
+9% +14% -
10/19/20 9/20-10/18 SurveyMonkey D- RV 977 Trump
52
Biden
45
+7% +12% -
10/18/20 9/20-10/17 SurveyMonkey D- LV 941 Trump
53
Biden
45
+8% +13% -
10/18/20 9/20-10/17 SurveyMonkey D- RV 941 Trump
52
Biden
45
+7% +12% -
10/18/20 9/30-10/4 Patinkin Research Strategies LV 600 Trump
49
Biden
46
+3% +3% 0.11
10/17/20 9/19-10/16 SurveyMonkey D- LV 898 Trump
53
Biden
44
+9% +14% -
10/17/20 9/19-10/16 SurveyMonkey D- RV 898 Trump
52
Biden
44
+8% +13% -
10/16/20 9/17-10/15 SurveyMonkey D- LV 835 Trump
53
Biden
45
+8% +13% -
10/16/20 9/17-10/15 SurveyMonkey D- RV 835 Trump
52
Biden
45
+7% +12% -
10/16/20 10/9-10/14 Siena College/The New York Times Upshot A+ LV 423 Trump
45
Biden
39
+6% +5.6% 0.76
10/15/20 9/16-10/14 SurveyMonkey D- LV 796 Trump
54
Biden
44
+10% +15% -
10/15/20 9/16-10/14 SurveyMonkey D- RV 796 Trump
53
Biden
44
+9% +14% -
10/14/20 9/16-10/13 SurveyMonkey D- LV 776 Trump
54
Biden
44
+10% +15% -
10/14/20 9/16-10/13 SurveyMonkey D- RV 776 Trump
53
Biden
44
+9% +14% -
10/13/20 9/14-10/12 SurveyMonkey D- LV 751 Trump
55
Biden
43
+12% +17% -
10/13/20 9/14-10/12 SurveyMonkey D- RV 751 Trump
54
Biden
43
+11% +16% -
10/6/20 9/25-10/4 Alaska Survey Research B/C LV 676 Trump
50
Biden
46
+4% +5.8% 0.34
10/3/20 6/8-6/30 SurveyMonkey D- RV 161 Trump
48.3
Biden
48.6
+0.3% +4.7% -
10/3/20 6/8-6/30 SurveyMonkey D- LV 161 Trump
52.1
Biden
46.3
+5.8% +10.8% -
10/3/20 7/1-7/31 SurveyMonkey D- RV 412 Trump
56.4
Biden
40.5
+15.9% +20.9% -
10/3/20 7/1-7/31 SurveyMonkey D- LV 412 Trump
54.8
Biden
42.7
+12.1% +17.1% -
10/3/20 8/1-8/31 SurveyMonkey D- RV 472 Trump
56.3
Biden
42.3
+14% +19% -
10/3/20 8/1-8/31 SurveyMonkey D- LV 472 Trump
57
Biden
42
+15% +20% -
10/2/20 9/1-9/30 SurveyMonkey D- RV 563 Trump
53.7
Biden
43.4
+10.3% +15.3% -
10/2/20 9/1-9/30 SurveyMonkey D- LV 563 Trump
53.5
Biden
44.7
+8.8% +13.8% -
9/28/20 9/20-9/23 Harstad Strategic Research Inc. B/C LV 602 Trump
47
Biden
46
+1% +1.6% 0.22
7/28/20 7/23-7/24 Public Policy Polling B V 885 Trump
50
Biden
44
+6% +6.4% 0.06
7/17/20 6/23-7/7 Alaska Survey Research B/C LV 663 Trump
48.8
Biden
47.6
+1.2% +3% -
7/9/20 7/7-7/8 Public Policy Polling B V 1,081 Trump
48
Biden
45
+3% +3.4% -
8/16/19 7/22-8/9 Zogby Analytics C+ LV 321 Trump
45
Biden
40
+5% +4.4% -


Past Results

Year Candidates Republican Democrat Diff
2016 Trump v Clinton 51.3 36.6 +14.7%
2012 Romney v Obama 54.8 40.8 +14%
2008 McCain v Obama 59.4 37.9 +21.5%
2004 Bush v Kerry 61.1 35.5 +25.6%
2000 Bush v Gore 58.6 27.7 +31%




Updates

Last Updated: 10/28 10:35 AM EDT
10/6
Alaska changed from Lean Trump to Likely Trump
10/3
Alaska polls jumped 2.7% toward Biden (was R+7.4%, now R+4.7%)
Alaska changed from Likely Trump to Lean Trump
9/28
Alaska polls jumped 4.3% toward Biden (was R+11.3%, now R+7%)
7/17
Alaska changed from Lean Trump to Likely Trump