Alaska

Live Election Night Forecast

Last Updated: 12/10 11:48 AM EDT
Winner
Trump
Trump

Election Night Forecast Changes

Here you can see how the forecast has in Alaska changed throughout the evening (and perhaps coming days?), all times are EST.




Alaska Pre-Election Forecast

If Election Today more aggressive + 2016 Polling Error assumes same polling errors
Test Polling Swings see how a swing changes the model

Safe Trump

Win Probability

Biden
Trump
Biden
1.8%
Polls: 42.7%
Trump
98.2%
Polls: 51% +8.3%
1.8%
98.2%



Swing

 
+6.4%
From 2016 Results
+0.1%
From 2016 Polls
 



Testing

Standard Deviation: 2.416 Testing Range: +/- 5.65%




Tipping Point



0.1%
of the time





Polls

 
42.7%
Biden
51%
Trump (+8.3%)
 

Date Pollster Rating Voters Sample Size Republican Democrat Diff Diff (Adj) Weight
11/2/20 10/20-11/1 SurveyMonkey D- LV 537 Trump
53		 Biden
46		 +7% +12% 0.21
11/2/20 10/20-11/1 SurveyMonkey D- RV 537 Trump
53		 Biden
45		 +8% +13% -
11/1/20 10/18-10/31 SurveyMonkey D- LV 614 Trump
54		 Biden
45		 +9% +14% 0.2
11/1/20 10/18-10/31 SurveyMonkey D- RV 614 Trump
54		 Biden
45		 +9% +14% -
10/31/20 10/17-10/30 SurveyMonkey D- LV 638 Trump
53		 Biden
45		 +8% +13% 0.18
10/31/20 10/17-10/30 SurveyMonkey D- RV 638 Trump
53		 Biden
45		 +8% +13% -
10/30/20 10/16-10/29 SurveyMonkey D- LV 663 Trump
55		 Biden
43		 +12% +17% 0.16
10/30/20 10/16-10/29 SurveyMonkey D- RV 663 Trump
54		 Biden
43		 +11% +16% -
10/29/20 10/1-10/28 SurveyMonkey D- LV 1,147 Trump
54		 Biden
44		 +10% +15% -
10/29/20 10/1-10/28 SurveyMonkey D- RV 1,147 Trump
53		 Biden
44		 +9% +14% -
10/29/20 10/26-10/28 Gravis Marketing C LV 770 Trump
52		 Biden
43		 +9% +10% 0.84
10/28/20 9/30-10/27 SurveyMonkey D- LV 1,131 Trump
54		 Biden
44		 +10% +15% -
10/28/20 9/30-10/27 SurveyMonkey D- RV 1,131 Trump
53		 Biden
44		 +9% +14% -
10/26/20 9/28-10/25 SurveyMonkey D- LV 1,120 Trump
54		 Biden
44		 +10% +15% -
10/26/20 9/28-10/25 SurveyMonkey D- RV 1,120 Trump
53		 Biden
44		 +9% +14% -
10/25/20 9/27-10/24 SurveyMonkey D- LV 1,083 Trump
53		 Biden
45		 +8% +13% -
10/25/20 9/27-10/24 SurveyMonkey D- RV 1,083 Trump
52		 Biden
45		 +7% +12% -
10/24/20 9/25-10/23 SurveyMonkey D- LV 1,049 Trump
53		 Biden
45		 +8% +13% -
10/24/20 9/25-10/23 SurveyMonkey D- RV 1,049 Trump
52		 Biden
45		 +7% +12% -
10/23/20 9/25-10/22 SurveyMonkey D- LV 989 Trump
53		 Biden
44		 +9% +14% -
10/23/20 9/25-10/22 SurveyMonkey D- RV 989 Trump
52		 Biden
44		 +8% +13% -
10/22/20 9/23-10/21 SurveyMonkey D- LV 998 Trump
53		 Biden
44		 +9% +14% -
10/22/20 9/23-10/21 SurveyMonkey D- RV 998 Trump
52		 Biden
44		 +8% +13% -
10/21/20 9/23-10/20 SurveyMonkey D- LV 996 Trump
53		 Biden
45		 +8% +13% -
10/21/20 9/23-10/20 SurveyMonkey D- RV 996 Trump
52		 Biden
45		 +7% +12% -
10/21/20 10/19-10/20 Public Policy Polling B V 800 Trump
50		 Biden
45		 +5% +5.4% 0.73
10/20/20 9/22-10/19 SurveyMonkey D- LV 1,001 Trump
52		 Biden
45		 +7% +12% -
10/20/20 9/22-10/19 SurveyMonkey D- RV 1,001 Trump
51		 Biden
46		 +5% +10% -
10/19/20 9/20-10/18 SurveyMonkey D- LV 977 Trump
53		 Biden
44		 +9% +14% -
10/19/20 9/20-10/18 SurveyMonkey D- RV 977 Trump
52		 Biden
45		 +7% +12% -
10/18/20 9/20-10/17 SurveyMonkey D- LV 941 Trump
53		 Biden
45		 +8% +13% -
10/18/20 9/20-10/17 SurveyMonkey D- RV 941 Trump
52		 Biden
45		 +7% +12% -
10/18/20 9/30-10/4 Patinkin Research Strategies LV 600 Trump
49		 Biden
46		 +3% +3% -
10/17/20 9/19-10/16 SurveyMonkey D- LV 898 Trump
53		 Biden
44		 +9% +14% -
10/17/20 9/19-10/16 SurveyMonkey D- RV 898 Trump
52		 Biden
44		 +8% +13% -
10/16/20 9/17-10/15 SurveyMonkey D- LV 835 Trump
53		 Biden
45		 +8% +13% -
10/16/20 9/17-10/15 SurveyMonkey D- RV 835 Trump
52		 Biden
45		 +7% +12% -
10/16/20 10/9-10/14 Siena College/The New York Times Upshot A+ LV 423 Trump
45		 Biden
39		 +6% +5.6% 0.63
10/15/20 9/16-10/14 SurveyMonkey D- LV 796 Trump
54		 Biden
44		 +10% +15% -
10/15/20 9/16-10/14 SurveyMonkey D- RV 796 Trump
53		 Biden
44		 +9% +14% -
10/14/20 9/16-10/13 SurveyMonkey D- LV 776 Trump
54		 Biden
44		 +10% +15% -
10/14/20 9/16-10/13 SurveyMonkey D- RV 776 Trump
53		 Biden
44		 +9% +14% -
10/13/20 9/14-10/12 SurveyMonkey D- LV 751 Trump
55		 Biden
43		 +12% +17% -
10/13/20 9/14-10/12 SurveyMonkey D- RV 751 Trump
54		 Biden
43		 +11% +16% -
10/6/20 9/25-10/4 Alaska Survey Research B/C LV 676 Trump
50		 Biden
46		 +4% +5.8% 0.25
10/3/20 6/8-6/30 SurveyMonkey D- RV 161 Trump
48.3		 Biden
48.6		 +0.3% +4.7% -
10/3/20 6/8-6/30 SurveyMonkey D- LV 161 Trump
52.1		 Biden
46.3		 +5.8% +10.8% -
10/3/20 7/1-7/31 SurveyMonkey D- RV 412 Trump
56.4		 Biden
40.5		 +15.9% +20.9% -
10/3/20 7/1-7/31 SurveyMonkey D- LV 412 Trump
54.8		 Biden
42.7		 +12.1% +17.1% -
10/3/20 8/1-8/31 SurveyMonkey D- RV 472 Trump
56.3		 Biden
42.3		 +14% +19% -
10/3/20 8/1-8/31 SurveyMonkey D- LV 472 Trump
57		 Biden
42		 +15% +20% -
10/2/20 9/1-9/30 SurveyMonkey D- RV 563 Trump
53.7		 Biden
43.4		 +10.3% +15.3% -
10/2/20 9/1-9/30 SurveyMonkey D- LV 563 Trump
53.5		 Biden
44.7		 +8.8% +13.8% -
9/28/20 9/20-9/23 Harstad Strategic Research Inc. B/C LV 602 Trump
47		 Biden
46		 +1% +1.6% 0.14
7/28/20 7/23-7/24 Public Policy Polling B V 885 Trump
50		 Biden
44		 +6% +6.4% -
7/17/20 6/23-7/7 Alaska Survey Research B/C LV 663 Trump
48.8		 Biden
47.6		 +1.2% +3% -
7/9/20 7/7-7/8 Public Policy Polling B V 1,081 Trump
48		 Biden
45		 +3% +3.4% -
8/16/19 7/22-8/9 Zogby Analytics C+ LV 321 Trump
45		 Biden
40		 +5% +4.4% -


Past Results

Year Candidates Republican Democrat Diff
2016 Trump v Clinton 51.3 36.6 +14.7%
2012 Romney v Obama 54.8 40.8 +14%
2008 McCain v Obama 59.4 37.9 +21.5%
2004 Bush v Kerry 61.1 35.5 +25.6%
2000 Bush v Gore 58.6 27.7 +31%




Updates

Last Updated: 11/3 2:36 AM EDT
11/1
Alaska changed from Likely Trump to Safe Trump
10/6
Alaska changed from Lean Trump to Likely Trump
10/3
Alaska polls jumped 2.7% toward Biden (was R+7.4%, now R+4.7%)
Alaska changed from Likely Trump to Lean Trump
9/28
Alaska polls jumped 4.3% toward Biden (was R+11.3%, now R+7%)
7/17
Alaska changed from Lean Trump to Likely Trump