Alaska

Live Election Night Forecast

Last Updated: 8/15 5:07 AM EDT
Winner
Trump
Trump

Election Night Forecast Changes

Here you can see how the forecast has in Alaska changed throughout the evening (and perhaps coming days?), all times are EST.





Alaska Pre-Election Forecast

If Election Today more aggressive + 2016 Polling Error assumes same polling errors

Safe Trump

Win Probability
(with same polling error as 2016)

This version of the model assumes the same polling error (polls on election day vs actual result) as 2016.
In Alaska the polls are shifted 6.5% more Republican.

Biden
Trump
Biden
0%
Polls: 39.4%
Trump
100%
Polls: 54.1% +14.7%
100%



Swing

 
+0%
From 2016 Results
+0%
From 2016 Polls
 



Testing

Standard Deviation: 1.885 Testing Range: +/- 4.41%






Polls

 
39.4%
Biden
54.1%
Trump (+14.7%)
 



Updates

Last Updated: 11/4 12:52 AM EDT
10/5
Alaska changed from Likely Trump to Safe Trump
10/3
Alaska polls jumped 2.7% toward Biden (was R+13.9%, now R+11.2%)
Alaska changed from Safe Trump to Likely Trump
9/28
Alaska polls jumped 4.3% toward Biden (was R+17.8%, now R+13.5%)
7/14
Alaska changed from Likely Trump to Safe Trump