Arizona

If Election Today more aggressive + 2016 Polling Error assumes same polling errors

Toss Up

Win Probability

Biden
Trump
Biden
64.2%
Polls: 48.4% +2.8%
Trump
35.8%
Polls: 45.6%
64.2%
35.8%



Swing

 
+6.4%
From 2016 Results
+4.7%
From 2016 Polls
 



Testing

Standard Deviation: 2.4 Testing Range: +/- 5.6%




Tipping Point



3.7%
of the time





Polls

 
48.4%
Biden (+2.8%)
45.6%
Trump
 

Date Pollster Rating Voters Sample Size Republican Democrat Diff Diff (Adj) Weight
10/27/20 9/10-9/13 Patinkin Research Strategies LV 679 Trump
46
Biden
49
+3% +3% -
10/27/20 10/1-10/3 Patinkin Research Strategies LV 604 Trump
46
Biden
50
+4% +4% -
10/27/20 10/21-10/24 Patinkin Research Strategies LV 729 Trump
45
Biden
52
+7% +7% 0.63
10/27/20 10/22-10/25 OH Predictive Insights B/C LV 716 Trump
46
Biden
49
+3% +4% 0.96
10/26/20 9/27-10/25 SurveyMonkey D- LV 5,568 Trump
46
Biden
53
+7% +2% -
10/26/20 9/27-10/25 SurveyMonkey D- RV 5,568 Trump
44
Biden
54
+10% +5% -
10/25/20 9/27-10/24 SurveyMonkey D- LV 5,571 Trump
45
Biden
53
+8% +3% -
10/25/20 9/27-10/24 SurveyMonkey D- RV 5,571 Trump
44
Biden
54
+10% +5% -
10/24/20 9/25-10/23 SurveyMonkey D- LV 5,626 Trump
46
Biden
53
+7% +2% -
10/24/20 9/25-10/23 SurveyMonkey D- RV 5,626 Trump
44
Biden
54
+10% +5% -
10/23/20 9/24-10/22 SurveyMonkey D- LV 5,836 Trump
46
Biden
53
+7% +2% -
10/23/20 9/24-10/22 SurveyMonkey D- RV 5,836 Trump
44
Biden
54
+10% +5% -
10/23/20 10/3-10/5 Basswood Research B/C LV 800 Trump
47.9
Biden
47.8
+0.1% +0.1% 0.37
10/23/20 8/29-8/31 Basswood Research B/C LV 800 Trump
49.1
Biden
48.1
+1% +0.8% -
10/23/20 8/29-8/31 Basswood Research B/C LV 800 Trump
47.8
Biden
46.8
+1% +0.8% -
10/23/20 10/19-10/22 Susquehanna Polling & Research Inc. C LV 500 Trump
46.6
Biden
46.2
+0.4% +1.4% 0.76
10/22/20 9/24-10/21 SurveyMonkey D- LV 5,852 Trump
46
Biden
53
+7% +2% -
10/22/20 9/24-10/21 SurveyMonkey D- RV 5,852 Trump
44
Biden
54
+10% +5% -
10/22/20 10/11-10/20 Morning Consult B/C LV 1,066 Trump
48
Biden
47
+1% +1.2% 0.69
10/21/20 10/14-10/21 Ipsos B- LV 658 Trump
46
Biden
50
+4% +3.6% 0.31
10/21/20 10/14-10/21 Ipsos B- LV 658 Trump
46
Biden
49
+3% +2.6% 0.31
10/21/20 9/22-10/20 SurveyMonkey D- LV 5,843 Trump
45
Biden
53
+8% +3% -
10/21/20 9/22-10/20 SurveyMonkey D- RV 5,843 Trump
44
Biden
54
+10% +5% -
10/21/20 10/18-10/19 Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research C+ LV 800 Trump
46
Biden
48
+2% +3.6% 0.78
10/20/20 10/16-10/19 Change Research C- LV 232 Trump
45
Biden
51
+6% +4.8% 0.59
10/20/20 9/21-10/19 SurveyMonkey D- LV 5,945 Trump
45
Biden
53
+8% +3% -
10/20/20 9/21-10/19 SurveyMonkey D- RV 5,945 Trump
44
Biden
54
+10% +5% -
10/20/20 10/14-10/19 RMG Research B/C LV 800 Trump
46
Biden
47
+1% +1% 0.72
10/20/20 10/16-10/18 Data Orbital A/B LV 550 Trump
41.9
Biden
47.1
+5.2% +4.8% 0.84
10/19/20 9/21-10/18 SurveyMonkey D- LV 5,973 Trump
45
Biden
53
+8% +3% -
10/19/20 9/21-10/18 SurveyMonkey D- RV 5,973 Trump
44
Biden
54
+10% +5% -
10/18/20 9/19-10/17 SurveyMonkey D- LV 5,909 Trump
45
Biden
53
+8% +3% -
10/18/20 9/19-10/17 SurveyMonkey D- RV 5,909 Trump
44
Biden
54
+10% +5% -
10/18/20 10/13-10/16 YouGov B LV 1,074 Trump
47
Biden
50
+3% +2.6% 0.72
10/17/20 9/18-10/16 SurveyMonkey D- LV 5,851 Trump
45
Biden
53
+8% +3% -
10/17/20 9/18-10/16 SurveyMonkey D- RV 5,851 Trump
44
Biden
54
+10% +5% -
10/16/20 9/17-10/15 SurveyMonkey D- LV 5,759 Trump
46
Biden
52
+6% +1% -
10/16/20 9/17-10/15 SurveyMonkey D- RV 5,759 Trump
45
Biden
53
+8% +3% -
10/15/20 9/23-10/2 Targoz Market Research C/D LV 1,045 Trump
46
Biden
45
+1% +2.6% -
10/15/20 9/16-10/14 SurveyMonkey D- LV 5,657 Trump
47
Biden
51
+4% +1% -
10/15/20 9/16-10/14 SurveyMonkey D- RV 5,657 Trump
46
Biden
52
+6% +1% -
10/15/20 10/9-10/13 Monmouth University A+ LV 502 Trump
47
Biden
49
+2% +0.6% 0.29
10/15/20 10/9-10/13 Monmouth University A+ LV 502 Trump
44
Biden
51
+7% +5.6% 0.29
10/15/20 10/9-10/13 Monmouth University A+ RV 502 Trump
44
Biden
50
+6% +4.6% -
10/15/20 10/4-10/8 OH Predictive Insights B/C LV 608 Trump
47
Biden
50
+3% +4% 0.11
10/15/20 10/4-10/8 OH Predictive Insights B/C LV 608 Trump
45
Biden
49
+4% +5% 0.11
10/14/20 9/16-10/13 SurveyMonkey D- LV 5,690 Trump
48
Biden
51
+3% +2% -
10/14/20 9/16-10/13 SurveyMonkey D- RV 5,690 Trump
46
Biden
52
+6% +1% -
10/14/20 10/7-10/14 Ipsos B- LV 667 Trump
47
Biden
49
+2% +1.6% 0.17
10/14/20 10/7-10/14 Ipsos B- LV 667 Trump
46
Biden
50
+4% +3.6% 0.17
10/13/20 9/15-10/12 SurveyMonkey D- LV 5,778 Trump
47
Biden
51
+4% +1% -
10/13/20 9/15-10/12 SurveyMonkey D- RV 5,778 Trump
46
Biden
52
+6% +1% -
10/13/20 10/2-10/11 Morning Consult B/C LV 1,144 Trump
46
Biden
49
+3% +2.8% 0.43
10/9/20 10/4-10/7 Redfield & Wilton Strategies LV 727 Trump
43
Biden
49
+6% +6% -
10/9/20 10/6-10/8 Trafalgar Group C- LV 1,087 Trump
47.8
Biden
43.8
+4% +3% 0.33
10/8/20 9/28-10/6 Latino Decisions B/C LV 600 Trump
45
Biden
48
+3% +3% 0.32
10/7/20 9/29-10/7 Ipsos B- LV 633 Trump
46
Biden
48
+2% +1.6% 0.36
10/7/20 10/3-10/5 Data Orbital A/B LV 550 Trump
43.2
Biden
47.7
+4.5% +4.1% 0.47
10/6/20 10/2-10/4 Change Research C- LV 296 Trump
45
Biden
51
+6% +4.8% 0.19
10/6/20 9/28-10/5 HighGround Inc. B/C LV 400 Trump
44.8
Biden
45.8
+1% +1.4% 0.28
10/6/20 9/24-9/29 Strategies 360 B/C LV 800 Trump
45
Biden
49
+4% +4.2% 0.19
10/5/20 10/1-10/3 Siena College/The New York Times Upshot A+ LV 655 Trump
41
Biden
49
+8% +8.4% 0.53
10/3/20 6/8-6/30 SurveyMonkey D- RV 2,365 Trump
49.7
Biden
47.6
+2.1% +7.1% -
10/3/20 6/8-6/30 SurveyMonkey D- LV 2,365 Trump
51.7
Biden
46.2
+5.6% +10.6% -
10/3/20 7/1-7/31 SurveyMonkey D- RV 4,995 Trump
48.2
Biden
48.8
+0.6% +4.4% -
10/3/20 7/1-7/31 SurveyMonkey D- LV 4,995 Trump
50.5
Biden
47.3
+3.2% +8.2% -
10/3/20 8/1-8/31 SurveyMonkey D- RV 6,456 Trump
49.9
Biden
47.9
+2% +7% -
10/3/20 8/1-8/31 SurveyMonkey D- LV 6,456 Trump
52
Biden
47
+5% +10% -
10/2/20 9/1-9/30 SurveyMonkey D- RV 7,100 Trump
46
Biden
51.8
+5.8% +0.8% -
10/2/20 9/1-9/30 SurveyMonkey D- LV 7,100 Trump
47.5
Biden
51
+3.5% +1.5% -
10/2/20 9/23-9/26 Redfield & Wilton Strategies LV 871 Trump
44
Biden
47
+3% +3% -
10/2/20 9/26-9/30 Suffolk University A LV 500 Trump
46
Biden
50
+4% +3.4% 0.41
10/1/20 9/23-9/28 Data for Progress B- LV 808 Trump
45
Biden
49
+4% +4% -
10/1/20 9/23-9/28 Data for Progress B- LV 808 Trump
46
Biden
50
+4% +4% -
9/29/20 9/25-9/28 Susquehanna Polling & Research Inc. C LV 500 Trump
46
Biden
47
+1% +0% 0.1
9/25/20 9/17-9/19 Hart Research Associates B/C LV 400 Trump
42
Biden
53
+11% +9.6% -
9/25/20 9/15-9/22 Data for Progress B- LV 481 Trump
46
Biden
45
+1% +1% 0.07
9/24/20 9/14-9/17 Data Orbital A/B LV 550 Trump
46.6
Biden
49.3
+2.7% +2.3% 0.14
9/23/20 9/11-9/16 Ipsos B- LV 565 Trump
46
Biden
47
+1% +0.6% -
9/23/20 9/18-9/20 Change Research C- LV 262 Trump
43
Biden
49
+6% +4.8% -
9/23/20 9/15-9/20 ABC News/The Washington Post A+ LV 579 Trump
49
Biden
48
+1% +1.6% 0.27
9/23/20 9/15-9/20 ABC News/The Washington Post A+ RV 701 Trump
47
Biden
49
+2% +1.4% -
9/18/20 9/12-9/16 Redfield & Wilton Strategies LV 855 Trump
42
Biden
47
+5% +5% -
9/18/20 9/10-9/15 Siena College/The New York Times Upshot A+ LV 653 Trump
40
Biden
49
+9% +9.4% 0.22
9/17/20 9/11-9/15 Monmouth University A+ LV 420 Trump
47
Biden
47
+0% +1.4% -
9/17/20 9/11-9/15 Monmouth University A+ LV 420 Trump
46
Biden
48
+2% +0.6% -
9/17/20 9/11-9/15 Monmouth University A+ RV 420 Trump
44
Biden
48
+4% +2.6% -
9/17/20 8/29-9/13 Kaiser Family Foundation RV 1,298 Trump
40
Biden
45
+5% +5% -
9/14/20 9/8-9/10 OH Predictive Insights B/C LV 600 Trump
42
Biden
52
+10% +11% -
9/13/20 9/9-9/11 YouGov B LV 1,106 Trump
44
Biden
47
+3% +2.6% -
9/12/20 9/10-9/11 Gravis Marketing C LV 684 Trump
48
Biden
50
+2% +1% -
9/10/20 8/28-9/8 Benenson Strategy Group/GS Strategy Group LV 1,600 Trump
47
Biden
48
+1% +1% -
9/9/20 8/29-9/7 Morning Consult B/C LV 901 Trump
46
Biden
49
+3% +2.8% -
9/9/20 9/4-9/6 Change Research C- LV 470 Trump
45
Biden
49
+4% +2.8% -
9/8/20 8/30-9/4 Redfield & Wilton Strategies LV 830 Trump
43
Biden
48
+5% +5% -
9/2/20 8/29-9/1 Fox News A- LV 772 Trump
40
Biden
49
+9% +7.6% -
9/2/20 8/29-9/1 Fox News A- RV 858 Trump
39
Biden
49
+10% +8.6% -
9/1/20 8/21-8/30 Morning Consult B/C LV 943 Trump
42
Biden
52
+10% +9.8% -
9/1/20 8/7-8/16 Morning Consult B/C LV 947 Trump
47
Biden
45
+2% +2.2% -
8/26/20 8/21-8/23 Change Research C- LV 344 Trump
47
Biden
49
+2% +0.8% -
8/21/20 8/16-8/18 Redfield & Wilton Strategies LV 856 Trump
38
Biden
47
+9% +9% -
8/18/20 8/2-8/4 OnMessage Inc. B/C LV 400 Trump
51
Biden
48
+3% +1.6% -
8/12/20 8/7-8/9 Change Research C- LV 428 Trump
44
Biden
45
+1% +0.2% -
8/11/20 8/8-8/10 Emerson College A- LV 661 Trump
46.7
Biden
53.3
+6.6% +6.2% -
8/10/20 8/5-8/8 Trafalgar Group C- LV 1,013 Trump
46.2
Biden
44.8
+1.4% +0.4% -
8/10/20 8/3-8/4 OH Predictive Insights B/C LV 603 Trump
45
Biden
49
+4% +5% -
8/6/20 7/24-8/2 Data for Progress B- LV 1,215 Trump
44
Biden
47
+3% +3% -
8/6/20 7/24-8/2 Data for Progress B- LV 1,215 Trump
43
Biden
45
+2% +2% -
7/30/20 7/19-7/23 Redfield & Wilton Strategies LV 858 Trump
38
Biden
46
+8% +8% -
7/29/20 7/24-7/26 Change Research C- LV 365 Trump
45
Biden
47
+2% +0.8% -
7/28/20 5/17-5/26 Morning Consult B/C LV 784 Trump
47
Biden
45
+2% +2.2% -
7/28/20 7/17-7/26 Morning Consult B/C LV 908 Trump
42
Biden
49
+7% +6.8% -
7/26/20 7/14-7/22 Marist College A+ RV 826 Trump
45
Biden
50
+5% +5.4% 0.08
7/26/20 7/18-7/24 CNN/SSRS B/C RV 873 Trump
45
Biden
49
+4% +2.8% -
7/22/20 7/11-7/16 Spry Strategies B/C LV 700 Trump
44.6
Biden
49.4
+4.8% +5.2% -
7/22/20 7/17-7/18 Public Policy Polling B V 960 Trump
45
Biden
49
+4% +3.6% -
7/16/20 7/6-7/7 OH Predictive Insights B/C LV 600 Trump
44
Biden
49
+5% +6% -
7/15/20 7/10-7/12 Change Research C- LV 345 Trump
45
Biden
51
+6% +4.8% -
7/12/20 7/7-7/10 YouGov B LV 1,087 Trump
46
Biden
46
+0% +0.4% -
7/10/20 4/13-4/16 GBAO B/C LV 500 Trump
46
Biden
47
+1% +1% -
7/1/20 6/27-6/27 Gravis Marketing C LV 527 Trump
49
Biden
45
+4% +5% -
7/1/20 6/27-6/29 Data Orbital A/B LV 600 Trump
45.4
Biden
47.1
+1.7% +1.3% -
7/1/20 6/26-6/28 Change Research C- LV 311 Trump
44
Biden
51
+7% +5.8% -
6/25/20 6/14-6/17 Redfield & Wilton Strategies LV 865 Trump
39
Biden
43
+4% +4% -
6/25/20 6/8-6/16 Siena College/The New York Times Upshot A+ RV 650 Trump
41
Biden
48
+7% +7.4% -
6/17/20 6/12-6/14 Change Research C- LV 201 Trump
44
Biden
45
+1% +0.2% -
6/16/20 6/13-6/15 Civiqs B/C RV 1,368 Trump
45
Biden
49
+4% +4% -
6/3/20 5/30-6/2 Fox News A- RV 1,002 Trump
42
Biden
46
+4% +2.6% -
6/3/20 5/29-5/31 Change Research C- LV 329 Trump
45
Biden
44
+1% +2.2% -
5/26/20 5/18-5/22 HighGround Inc. B/C LV 400 Trump
45.3
Biden
47
+1.7% +2.1% -
5/21/20 5/10-5/14 Redfield & Wilton Strategies LV 946 Trump
41
Biden
45
+4% +4% -
5/19/20 5/9-5/11 OH Predictive Insights B/C LV 600 Trump
42.6
Biden
50.5
+7.9% +8.9% -
4/14/20 4/7-4/8 OH Predictive Insights B/C LV 600 Trump
43
Biden
52
+9% +10% -
3/16/20 3/10-3/15 Marist College A+ RV 2,523 Trump
46
Biden
47
+1% +1.4% 0.07
3/16/20 3/11-3/14 Monmouth University A+ RV 847 Trump
43
Biden
46
+3% +1.6% -
3/13/20 2/11-2/15 Climate Nexus RV 539 Trump
46
Biden
42
+4% +4% -
3/13/20 3/6-3/11 Latino Decisions B/C RV 1,036 Trump
42
Biden
50
+8% +8% -
3/13/20 3/3-3/4 OH Predictive Insights B/C LV 600 Trump
43
Biden
49
+6% +7% -
3/9/20 1/22-1/24 Fabrizio, Lee & Associates B/C LV 1,000 Trump
50
Biden
45
+5% +5.2% -
3/5/20 3/2-3/3 Public Policy Polling B V 666 Trump
47
Biden
48
+1% +0.6% -
1/8/20 1/2-1/4 Public Policy Polling B V 760 Trump
46
Biden
46
+0% +0.4% -
12/9/19 12/3-12/4 OH Predictive Insights B/C LV 628 Trump
46
Biden
44
+2% +1% -
11/4/19 10/13-10/23 Siena College/The New York Times Upshot A+ LV 652 Trump
46.2
Biden
48.5
+2.4% +2.8% -
11/4/19 10/13-10/23 Siena College/The New York Times Upshot A+ RV 652 Trump
44.6
Biden
49.5
+4.9% +5.3% -
10/29/19 10/25-10/28 Emerson College A- RV 901 Trump
50
Biden
50
+0% +0.4% -
9/18/19 9/9-9/12 Bendixen & Amandi International B/C RV 520 Trump
43
Biden
42
+1% +1.2% -
9/17/19 7/29-7/31 Fabrizio Ward LLC B/C LV 600 Trump
45
Biden
50
+5% +4.8% -
8/22/19 8/13-8/14 OH Predictive Insights B/C LV 600 Trump
43
Biden
45
+2% +3% -
5/7/19 5/1-5/2 OH Predictive Insights B/C LV 600 Trump
44
Biden
49
+5% +6% -
2/20/19 2/12-2/13 OH Predictive Insights B/C LV 600 Trump
46
Biden
46
+0% +1% -


Past Results

Year Candidates Republican Democrat Diff
2016 Trump v Clinton 48.7 45.1 +3.5%
2012 Romney v Obama 53.7 44.6 +9.1%
2008 McCain v Obama 53.6 45.1 +8.5%
2004 Bush v Kerry 54.9 44.4 +10.5%
2000 Bush v Gore 51 44.7 +6.3%




Updates

Last Updated: 10/28 9:34 AM EDT
10/8
Arizona changed from Lean Biden to Toss Up
10/5
Arizona changed from Toss Up to Lean Biden
9/23
Arizona changed from Lean Biden to Toss Up
9/18
Arizona changed from Toss Up to Lean Biden