Arizona

Live Election Night Forecast

Last Updated: 11/4 4:28 PM EDT
Winner
Biden
Biden

Election Night Forecast Changes

Here you can see how the forecast has in Arizona changed throughout the evening (and perhaps coming days?), all times are EST.




Arizona Pre-Election Forecast

If Election Today more aggressive + 2016 Polling Error assumes same polling errors
Test Polling Swings see how a swing changes the model

Toss Up

Win Probability

Biden
Trump
Biden
61%
Polls: 48.5% +2.3%
Trump
39%
Polls: 46.2%
61%
39%



Swing

 
+5.9%
From 2016 Results
+4.2%
From 2016 Polls
 



Testing

Standard Deviation: 2.213 Testing Range: +/- 5.13%




Tipping Point



3.3%
of the time





Polls

 
48.5%
Biden (+2.3%)
46.2%
Trump
 



Updates

Last Updated: 11/2 11:45 PM EDT
10/29
Arizona changed from Lean Biden to Toss Up
10/28
Arizona changed from Toss Up to Lean Biden
10/8
Arizona changed from Lean Biden to Toss Up
10/5
Arizona changed from Toss Up to Lean Biden
9/23
Arizona changed from Lean Biden to Toss Up