Arizona

Live Election Night Forecast

Last Updated: 9/29 8:41 PM EDT
Winner
Biden
Biden

Election Night Forecast Changes

Here you can see how the forecast has in Arizona changed throughout the evening (and perhaps coming days?), all times are EST.





Arizona Pre-Election Forecast

If Election Today more aggressive + 2016 Polling Error assumes same polling errors

Toss Up

Win Probability
(with same polling error as 2016)

This version of the model assumes the same polling error (polls on election day vs actual result) as 2016.
In Arizona the polls are shifted 1.7% more Republican.

Biden
Trump
Biden
46.8%
Polls: 47.7% +0.8%
Trump
53.2%
Polls: 46.9%
46.8%
53.2%



Swing

 
+4.4%
From 2016 Results
+4.4%
From 2016 Polls
 



Testing

Standard Deviation: 2.295 Testing Range: +/- 5.37%




Tipping Point



3.9%
of the time





Polls

 
47.7%
Biden (+0.8%)
46.9%
Trump
 



Updates

Last Updated: 11/2 11:54 PM EDT
10/29
Arizona projected winner changed to Trump (52.6% chance of winning)
10/28
Arizona projected winner changed to Biden (50.4% chance of winning)
10/23
Arizona projected winner changed to Trump (52.8% chance of winning)
9/1
Arizona projected winner changed to Biden (51.5% chance of winning)
8/30
Arizona projected winner changed to Trump (50.4% chance of winning)