Arkansas
Live Election Night Forecast
Last Updated: 1/26 6:17 AM ESTElection Night Forecast Changes
Here you can see how the forecast has in Arkansas changed throughout the evening (and perhaps coming days?), all times are EST.
Arkansas Pre-Election Forecast
Safe Trump
Win Probability
Swing
+1.6%
From 2016 Results
+11.6%
From 2016 Polls
Polls
34%
Biden
62.5%
Trump
(+28.5%)
Date | Pollster | Rating | Voters | Sample Size | Republican | Democrat | Diff | Diff (Adj) | Weight |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
11/2/20 10/20-11/1 | SurveyMonkey | D- | LV | 1,161 | Trump 61 |
Biden 38 |
+23% | +28% | 0.25 |
11/2/20 10/20-11/1 | SurveyMonkey | D- | RV | 1,161 | Trump 58 |
Biden 41 |
+17% | +22% | - |
11/1/20 10/18-10/31 | SurveyMonkey | D- | LV | 1,253 | Trump 60 |
Biden 39 |
+21% | +26% | 0.23 |
11/1/20 10/18-10/31 | SurveyMonkey | D- | RV | 1,253 | Trump 57 |
Biden 41 |
+16% | +21% | - |
10/31/20 10/17-10/30 | SurveyMonkey | D- | LV | 1,246 | Trump 60 |
Biden 38 |
+22% | +27% | 0.21 |
10/31/20 10/17-10/30 | SurveyMonkey | D- | RV | 1,246 | Trump 58 |
Biden 41 |
+17% | +22% | - |
10/30/20 10/16-10/29 | SurveyMonkey | D- | LV | 1,288 | Trump 60 |
Biden 39 |
+21% | +26% | 0.18 |
10/30/20 10/16-10/29 | SurveyMonkey | D- | RV | 1,288 | Trump 57 |
Biden 41 |
+16% | +21% | - |
10/29/20 10/1-10/28 | SurveyMonkey | D- | LV | 2,239 | Trump 60 |
Biden 38 |
+22% | +27% | 0.06 |
10/29/20 10/1-10/28 | SurveyMonkey | D- | RV | 2,239 | Trump 58 |
Biden 40 |
+18% | +23% | - |
10/28/20 10/9-10/21 | University of Arkansas | B/C | LV | 591 | Trump 65 |
Biden 32 |
+33% | +33.8% | 0.54 |
10/28/20 9/30-10/27 | SurveyMonkey | D- | LV | 2,154 | Trump 60 |
Biden 39 |
+21% | +26% | 0.05 |
10/28/20 9/30-10/27 | SurveyMonkey | D- | RV | 2,154 | Trump 58 |
Biden 40 |
+18% | +23% | - |
10/26/20 9/28-10/25 | SurveyMonkey | D- | LV | 2,033 | Trump 59 |
Biden 39 |
+20% | +25% | - |
10/26/20 9/28-10/25 | SurveyMonkey | D- | RV | 2,033 | Trump 57 |
Biden 41 |
+16% | +21% | - |
10/25/20 9/27-10/24 | SurveyMonkey | D- | LV | 2,020 | Trump 59 |
Biden 39 |
+20% | +25% | - |
10/25/20 9/27-10/24 | SurveyMonkey | D- | RV | 2,020 | Trump 57 |
Biden 41 |
+16% | +21% | - |
10/24/20 9/25-10/23 | SurveyMonkey | D- | LV | 1,989 | Trump 59 |
Biden 39 |
+20% | +25% | - |
10/24/20 9/25-10/23 | SurveyMonkey | D- | RV | 1,989 | Trump 57 |
Biden 41 |
+16% | +21% | - |
10/23/20 9/25-10/22 | SurveyMonkey | D- | LV | 1,951 | Trump 59 |
Biden 39 |
+20% | +25% | - |
10/23/20 9/25-10/22 | SurveyMonkey | D- | RV | 1,951 | Trump 57 |
Biden 41 |
+16% | +21% | - |
10/22/20 9/24-10/21 | SurveyMonkey | D- | LV | 1,887 | Trump 58 |
Biden 40 |
+18% | +23% | - |
10/22/20 9/24-10/21 | SurveyMonkey | D- | RV | 1,887 | Trump 56 |
Biden 41 |
+15% | +20% | - |
10/21/20 9/23-10/20 | SurveyMonkey | D- | LV | 1,797 | Trump 58 |
Biden 40 |
+18% | +23% | - |
10/21/20 9/23-10/20 | SurveyMonkey | D- | RV | 1,797 | Trump 56 |
Biden 42 |
+14% | +19% | - |
10/20/20 9/22-10/19 | SurveyMonkey | D- | LV | 1,707 | Trump 58 |
Biden 40 |
+18% | +23% | - |
10/20/20 9/22-10/19 | SurveyMonkey | D- | RV | 1,707 | Trump 56 |
Biden 41 |
+15% | +20% | - |
10/19/20 10/11-10/13 | Hendrix College | B/C | LV | 647 | Trump 58 |
Biden 33.5 |
+24.5% | +26.1% | 0.47 |
10/19/20 9/21-10/18 | SurveyMonkey | D- | LV | 1,640 | Trump 58 |
Biden 40 |
+18% | +23% | - |
10/19/20 9/21-10/18 | SurveyMonkey | D- | RV | 1,640 | Trump 56 |
Biden 41 |
+15% | +20% | - |
10/18/20 9/20-10/17 | SurveyMonkey | D- | LV | 1,609 | Trump 59 |
Biden 39 |
+20% | +25% | - |
10/18/20 9/20-10/17 | SurveyMonkey | D- | RV | 1,609 | Trump 57 |
Biden 40 |
+17% | +22% | - |
10/17/20 9/19-10/16 | SurveyMonkey | D- | LV | 1,577 | Trump 59 |
Biden 39 |
+20% | +25% | - |
10/17/20 9/19-10/16 | SurveyMonkey | D- | RV | 1,577 | Trump 57 |
Biden 40 |
+17% | +22% | - |
10/16/20 9/18-10/15 | SurveyMonkey | D- | LV | 1,466 | Trump 58 |
Biden 39 |
+19% | +24% | - |
10/16/20 9/18-10/15 | SurveyMonkey | D- | RV | 1,466 | Trump 57 |
Biden 41 |
+16% | +21% | - |
10/15/20 9/16-10/14 | SurveyMonkey | D- | LV | 1,385 | Trump 59 |
Biden 39 |
+20% | +25% | - |
10/15/20 9/16-10/14 | SurveyMonkey | D- | RV | 1,385 | Trump 57 |
Biden 40 |
+17% | +22% | - |
10/14/20 9/16-10/13 | SurveyMonkey | D- | LV | 1,311 | Trump 58 |
Biden 40 |
+18% | +23% | - |
10/14/20 9/16-10/13 | SurveyMonkey | D- | RV | 1,311 | Trump 56 |
Biden 41 |
+15% | +20% | - |
10/13/20 9/15-10/12 | SurveyMonkey | D- | LV | 1,231 | Trump 59 |
Biden 39 |
+20% | +25% | - |
10/13/20 9/15-10/12 | SurveyMonkey | D- | RV | 1,231 | Trump 57 |
Biden 41 |
+16% | +21% | - |
10/3/20 6/8-6/30 | SurveyMonkey | D- | RV | 354 | Trump 57.7 |
Biden 39.4 |
+18.4% | +23.4% | - |
10/3/20 6/8-6/30 | SurveyMonkey | D- | LV | 354 | Trump 59.5 |
Biden 38.3 |
+21.2% | +26.2% | - |
10/3/20 7/1-7/31 | SurveyMonkey | D- | RV | 747 | Trump 64.8 |
Biden 33 |
+31.8% | +36.8% | - |
10/3/20 7/1-7/31 | SurveyMonkey | D- | LV | 747 | Trump 65.8 |
Biden 32.4 |
+33.4% | +38.4% | - |
10/3/20 8/1-8/31 | SurveyMonkey | D- | RV | 689 | Trump 65 |
Biden 33.8 |
+31.2% | +36.2% | - |
10/3/20 8/1-8/31 | SurveyMonkey | D- | LV | 689 | Trump 67 |
Biden 32 |
+35% | +40% | - |
10/2/20 9/1-9/30 | SurveyMonkey | D- | RV | 771 | Trump 58.7 |
Biden 40.4 |
+18.4% | +23.4% | - |
10/2/20 9/1-9/30 | SurveyMonkey | D- | LV | 771 | Trump 61.6 |
Biden 37.7 |
+23.9% | +28.9% | - |
6/14/20 6/9-6/10 | Hendrix College | B/C | LV | 869 | Trump 47 |
Biden 45 |
+2% | +3.6% | - |
Past Results
Year | Candidates | Republican | Democrat | Diff |
---|---|---|---|---|
2016 | Trump v Clinton | 60.6 | 33.7 | +26.9% |
2012 | Romney v Obama | 60.6 | 36.9 | +23.7% |
2008 | McCain v Obama | 58.7 | 38.9 | +19.9% |
2004 | Bush v Kerry | 54.3 | 44.6 | +9.8% |
2000 | Bush v Gore | 51.3 | 45.9 | +5.5% |
Updates
Last Updated: 11/3 12:35 AM EST10/28
10/19
10/13
10/3