Arkansas

Live Election Night Forecast

Last Updated: 5/15 12:45 AM EDT
Winner
Trump
Trump

Election Night Forecast Changes

Here you can see how the forecast has in Arkansas changed throughout the evening (and perhaps coming days?), all times are EST.




Arkansas Pre-Election Forecast

If Election Today more aggressive + 2016 Polling Error assumes same polling errors
Test Polling Swings see how a swing changes the model

Safe Trump

Win Probability

Biden
Trump
Biden
0%
Polls: 34%
Trump
100%
Polls: 62.5% +28.5%
100%



Swing

 
+1.6%
From 2016 Results
+11.6%
From 2016 Polls
 





Polls

 
34%
Biden
62.5%
Trump (+28.5%)
 

Date Pollster Rating Voters Sample Size Republican Democrat Diff Diff (Adj) Weight
11/2/20 10/20-11/1 SurveyMonkey D- LV 1,161 Trump
61		 Biden
38		 +23% +28% 0.25
11/2/20 10/20-11/1 SurveyMonkey D- RV 1,161 Trump
58		 Biden
41		 +17% +22% -
11/1/20 10/18-10/31 SurveyMonkey D- LV 1,253 Trump
60		 Biden
39		 +21% +26% 0.23
11/1/20 10/18-10/31 SurveyMonkey D- RV 1,253 Trump
57		 Biden
41		 +16% +21% -
10/31/20 10/17-10/30 SurveyMonkey D- LV 1,246 Trump
60		 Biden
38		 +22% +27% 0.21
10/31/20 10/17-10/30 SurveyMonkey D- RV 1,246 Trump
58		 Biden
41		 +17% +22% -
10/30/20 10/16-10/29 SurveyMonkey D- LV 1,288 Trump
60		 Biden
39		 +21% +26% 0.18
10/30/20 10/16-10/29 SurveyMonkey D- RV 1,288 Trump
57		 Biden
41		 +16% +21% -
10/29/20 10/1-10/28 SurveyMonkey D- LV 2,239 Trump
60		 Biden
38		 +22% +27% 0.06
10/29/20 10/1-10/28 SurveyMonkey D- RV 2,239 Trump
58		 Biden
40		 +18% +23% -
10/28/20 10/9-10/21 University of Arkansas B/C LV 591 Trump
65		 Biden
32		 +33% +33.8% 0.54
10/28/20 9/30-10/27 SurveyMonkey D- LV 2,154 Trump
60		 Biden
39		 +21% +26% 0.05
10/28/20 9/30-10/27 SurveyMonkey D- RV 2,154 Trump
58		 Biden
40		 +18% +23% -
10/26/20 9/28-10/25 SurveyMonkey D- LV 2,033 Trump
59		 Biden
39		 +20% +25% -
10/26/20 9/28-10/25 SurveyMonkey D- RV 2,033 Trump
57		 Biden
41		 +16% +21% -
10/25/20 9/27-10/24 SurveyMonkey D- LV 2,020 Trump
59		 Biden
39		 +20% +25% -
10/25/20 9/27-10/24 SurveyMonkey D- RV 2,020 Trump
57		 Biden
41		 +16% +21% -
10/24/20 9/25-10/23 SurveyMonkey D- LV 1,989 Trump
59		 Biden
39		 +20% +25% -
10/24/20 9/25-10/23 SurveyMonkey D- RV 1,989 Trump
57		 Biden
41		 +16% +21% -
10/23/20 9/25-10/22 SurveyMonkey D- LV 1,951 Trump
59		 Biden
39		 +20% +25% -
10/23/20 9/25-10/22 SurveyMonkey D- RV 1,951 Trump
57		 Biden
41		 +16% +21% -
10/22/20 9/24-10/21 SurveyMonkey D- LV 1,887 Trump
58		 Biden
40		 +18% +23% -
10/22/20 9/24-10/21 SurveyMonkey D- RV 1,887 Trump
56		 Biden
41		 +15% +20% -
10/21/20 9/23-10/20 SurveyMonkey D- LV 1,797 Trump
58		 Biden
40		 +18% +23% -
10/21/20 9/23-10/20 SurveyMonkey D- RV 1,797 Trump
56		 Biden
42		 +14% +19% -
10/20/20 9/22-10/19 SurveyMonkey D- LV 1,707 Trump
58		 Biden
40		 +18% +23% -
10/20/20 9/22-10/19 SurveyMonkey D- RV 1,707 Trump
56		 Biden
41		 +15% +20% -
10/19/20 10/11-10/13 Hendrix College B/C LV 647 Trump
58		 Biden
33.5		 +24.5% +26.1% 0.47
10/19/20 9/21-10/18 SurveyMonkey D- LV 1,640 Trump
58		 Biden
40		 +18% +23% -
10/19/20 9/21-10/18 SurveyMonkey D- RV 1,640 Trump
56		 Biden
41		 +15% +20% -
10/18/20 9/20-10/17 SurveyMonkey D- LV 1,609 Trump
59		 Biden
39		 +20% +25% -
10/18/20 9/20-10/17 SurveyMonkey D- RV 1,609 Trump
57		 Biden
40		 +17% +22% -
10/17/20 9/19-10/16 SurveyMonkey D- LV 1,577 Trump
59		 Biden
39		 +20% +25% -
10/17/20 9/19-10/16 SurveyMonkey D- RV 1,577 Trump
57		 Biden
40		 +17% +22% -
10/16/20 9/18-10/15 SurveyMonkey D- LV 1,466 Trump
58		 Biden
39		 +19% +24% -
10/16/20 9/18-10/15 SurveyMonkey D- RV 1,466 Trump
57		 Biden
41		 +16% +21% -
10/15/20 9/16-10/14 SurveyMonkey D- LV 1,385 Trump
59		 Biden
39		 +20% +25% -
10/15/20 9/16-10/14 SurveyMonkey D- RV 1,385 Trump
57		 Biden
40		 +17% +22% -
10/14/20 9/16-10/13 SurveyMonkey D- LV 1,311 Trump
58		 Biden
40		 +18% +23% -
10/14/20 9/16-10/13 SurveyMonkey D- RV 1,311 Trump
56		 Biden
41		 +15% +20% -
10/13/20 9/15-10/12 SurveyMonkey D- LV 1,231 Trump
59		 Biden
39		 +20% +25% -
10/13/20 9/15-10/12 SurveyMonkey D- RV 1,231 Trump
57		 Biden
41		 +16% +21% -
10/3/20 6/8-6/30 SurveyMonkey D- RV 354 Trump
57.7		 Biden
39.4		 +18.4% +23.4% -
10/3/20 6/8-6/30 SurveyMonkey D- LV 354 Trump
59.5		 Biden
38.3		 +21.2% +26.2% -
10/3/20 7/1-7/31 SurveyMonkey D- RV 747 Trump
64.8		 Biden
33		 +31.8% +36.8% -
10/3/20 7/1-7/31 SurveyMonkey D- LV 747 Trump
65.8		 Biden
32.4		 +33.4% +38.4% -
10/3/20 8/1-8/31 SurveyMonkey D- RV 689 Trump
65		 Biden
33.8		 +31.2% +36.2% -
10/3/20 8/1-8/31 SurveyMonkey D- LV 689 Trump
67		 Biden
32		 +35% +40% -
10/2/20 9/1-9/30 SurveyMonkey D- RV 771 Trump
58.7		 Biden
40.4		 +18.4% +23.4% -
10/2/20 9/1-9/30 SurveyMonkey D- LV 771 Trump
61.6		 Biden
37.7		 +23.9% +28.9% -
6/14/20 6/9-6/10 Hendrix College B/C LV 869 Trump
47		 Biden
45		 +2% +3.6% -


Past Results

Year Candidates Republican Democrat Diff
2016 Trump v Clinton 60.6 33.7 +26.9%
2012 Romney v Obama 60.6 36.9 +23.7%
2008 McCain v Obama 58.7 38.9 +19.9%
2004 Bush v Kerry 54.3 44.6 +9.8%
2000 Bush v Gore 51.3 45.9 +5.5%




Updates

Last Updated: 11/3 12:35 AM EDT
10/28
Arkansas polls jumped 3.5% toward Trump (was R+25.4%, now R+28.9%)
10/19
Arkansas polls jumped 1.8% toward Trump (was R+23.5%, now R+25.3%)
10/13
Arkansas polls jumped 3.5% toward Biden (was R+29.2%, now R+25.7%)
10/3
Arkansas polls jumped 4.2% toward Biden (was R+33.3%, now R+29.1%)