Arkansas

If Election Today more aggressive + 2016 Polling Error assumes same polling errors
Test Polling Swings see how a swing changes the model

Safe Trump

Win Probability

Biden
Trump
Biden
0%
Polls: 34.4%
Trump
100%
Polls: 59.8% +25.4%
100%



Swing

 
+1.5%
From 2016 Results
+8.5%
From 2016 Polls
 





Polls

 
34.4%
Biden
59.8%
Trump (+25.4%)
 

Date Pollster Rating Voters Sample Size Republican Democrat Diff Diff (Adj) Weight
10/26/20 9/28-10/25 SurveyMonkey D- LV 2,033 Trump
59		 Biden
39		 +20% +25% 0.12
10/26/20 9/28-10/25 SurveyMonkey D- RV 2,033 Trump
57		 Biden
41		 +16% +21% -
10/25/20 9/27-10/24 SurveyMonkey D- LV 2,020 Trump
59		 Biden
39		 +20% +25% 0.1
10/25/20 9/27-10/24 SurveyMonkey D- RV 2,020 Trump
57		 Biden
41		 +16% +21% -
10/24/20 9/25-10/23 SurveyMonkey D- LV 1,989 Trump
59		 Biden
39		 +20% +25% 0.08
10/24/20 9/25-10/23 SurveyMonkey D- RV 1,989 Trump
57		 Biden
41		 +16% +21% -
10/23/20 9/25-10/22 SurveyMonkey D- LV 1,951 Trump
59		 Biden
39		 +20% +25% 0.06
10/23/20 9/25-10/22 SurveyMonkey D- RV 1,951 Trump
57		 Biden
41		 +16% +21% -
10/22/20 9/24-10/21 SurveyMonkey D- LV 1,887 Trump
58		 Biden
40		 +18% +23% 0.05
10/22/20 9/24-10/21 SurveyMonkey D- RV 1,887 Trump
56		 Biden
41		 +15% +20% -
10/21/20 9/23-10/20 SurveyMonkey D- LV 1,797 Trump
58		 Biden
40		 +18% +23% 0.03
10/21/20 9/23-10/20 SurveyMonkey D- RV 1,797 Trump
56		 Biden
42		 +14% +19% -
10/20/20 9/22-10/19 SurveyMonkey D- LV 1,707 Trump
58		 Biden
40		 +18% +23% 0.01
10/20/20 9/22-10/19 SurveyMonkey D- RV 1,707 Trump
56		 Biden
41		 +15% +20% -
10/19/20 10/11-10/13 Hendrix College B/C LV 647 Trump
58		 Biden
33.5		 +24.5% +26.1% 0.62
10/19/20 9/21-10/18 SurveyMonkey D- LV 1,640 Trump
58		 Biden
40		 +18% +23% -
10/19/20 9/21-10/18 SurveyMonkey D- RV 1,640 Trump
56		 Biden
41		 +15% +20% -
10/18/20 9/20-10/17 SurveyMonkey D- LV 1,609 Trump
59		 Biden
39		 +20% +25% -
10/18/20 9/20-10/17 SurveyMonkey D- RV 1,609 Trump
57		 Biden
40		 +17% +22% -
10/17/20 9/19-10/16 SurveyMonkey D- LV 1,577 Trump
59		 Biden
39		 +20% +25% -
10/17/20 9/19-10/16 SurveyMonkey D- RV 1,577 Trump
57		 Biden
40		 +17% +22% -
10/16/20 9/18-10/15 SurveyMonkey D- LV 1,466 Trump
58		 Biden
39		 +19% +24% -
10/16/20 9/18-10/15 SurveyMonkey D- RV 1,466 Trump
57		 Biden
41		 +16% +21% -
10/15/20 9/16-10/14 SurveyMonkey D- LV 1,385 Trump
59		 Biden
39		 +20% +25% -
10/15/20 9/16-10/14 SurveyMonkey D- RV 1,385 Trump
57		 Biden
40		 +17% +22% -
10/14/20 9/16-10/13 SurveyMonkey D- LV 1,311 Trump
58		 Biden
40		 +18% +23% -
10/14/20 9/16-10/13 SurveyMonkey D- RV 1,311 Trump
56		 Biden
41		 +15% +20% -
10/13/20 9/15-10/12 SurveyMonkey D- LV 1,231 Trump
59		 Biden
39		 +20% +25% -
10/13/20 9/15-10/12 SurveyMonkey D- RV 1,231 Trump
57		 Biden
41		 +16% +21% -
10/3/20 6/8-6/30 SurveyMonkey D- RV 354 Trump
57.7		 Biden
39.4		 +18.4% +23.4% -
10/3/20 6/8-6/30 SurveyMonkey D- LV 354 Trump
59.5		 Biden
38.3		 +21.2% +26.2% -
10/3/20 7/1-7/31 SurveyMonkey D- RV 747 Trump
64.8		 Biden
33		 +31.8% +36.8% -
10/3/20 7/1-7/31 SurveyMonkey D- LV 747 Trump
65.8		 Biden
32.4		 +33.4% +38.4% -
10/3/20 8/1-8/31 SurveyMonkey D- RV 689 Trump
65		 Biden
33.8		 +31.2% +36.2% -
10/3/20 8/1-8/31 SurveyMonkey D- LV 689 Trump
67		 Biden
32		 +35% +40% -
10/2/20 9/1-9/30 SurveyMonkey D- RV 771 Trump
58.7		 Biden
40.4		 +18.4% +23.4% -
10/2/20 9/1-9/30 SurveyMonkey D- LV 771 Trump
61.6		 Biden
37.7		 +23.9% +28.9% -
6/14/20 6/9-6/10 Hendrix College B/C LV 869 Trump
47		 Biden
45		 +2% +3.6% -


Past Results

Year Candidates Republican Democrat Diff
2016 Trump v Clinton 60.6 33.7 +26.9%
2012 Romney v Obama 60.6 36.9 +23.7%
2008 McCain v Obama 58.7 38.9 +19.9%
2004 Bush v Kerry 54.3 44.6 +9.8%
2000 Bush v Gore 51.3 45.9 +5.5%




Updates

Last Updated: 10/28 9:54 AM EDT
10/19
Arkansas polls jumped 1.8% toward Trump (was R+23.5%, now R+25.3%)
10/13
Arkansas polls jumped 3.5% toward Biden (was R+29.2%, now R+25.7%)
10/3
Arkansas polls jumped 4.2% toward Biden (was R+33.3%, now R+29.1%)