Arkansas

Live Election Night Forecast

Last Updated: 9/29 8:31 PM EDT
Winner
Trump
Trump

Election Night Forecast Changes

Here you can see how the forecast has in Arkansas changed throughout the evening (and perhaps coming days?), all times are EST.





Arkansas Pre-Election Forecast

If Election Today more aggressive + 2016 Polling Error assumes same polling errors

Safe Trump

Win Probability
(with same polling error as 2016)

This version of the model assumes the same polling error (polls on election day vs actual result) as 2016.
In Arkansas the polls are shifted 10% more Republican.

Biden
Trump
Biden
0%
Polls: 28.9%
Trump
100%
Polls: 67.4% +38.5%
100%



Swing

 
+11.6%
From 2016 Results
+11.6%
From 2016 Polls
 





Polls

 
28.9%
Biden
67.4%
Trump (+38.5%)
 



Updates

Last Updated: 11/5 4:12 PM EDT
10/28
Arkansas polls jumped 3.5% toward Trump (was R+35.4%, now R+38.9%)
10/19
Arkansas polls jumped 1.8% toward Trump (was R+33.5%, now R+35.3%)
10/13
Arkansas polls jumped 3.5% toward Biden (was R+39.2%, now R+35.7%)
10/3
Arkansas polls jumped 4.2% toward Biden (was R+43.3%, now R+39.1%)