California

If Election Today more aggressive + 2016 Polling Error assumes same polling errors

Safe Biden

Win Probability

Biden
Trump
Biden
100%
Polls: 60.3% +28.4%
Trump
0%
Polls: 31.9%
100%



Swing

 
+1.7%
From 2016 Results
+3.6%
From 2016 Polls
 





Polls

 
60.3%
Biden (+28.4%)
31.9%
Trump
 

Date Pollster Rating Voters Sample Size Republican Democrat Diff Diff (Adj) Weight
10/28/20 9/30-10/27 SurveyMonkey D- LV 22,170 Trump
37
Biden
61
+24% +19% 0.18
10/28/20 9/30-10/27 SurveyMonkey D- RV 22,170 Trump
36
Biden
61
+25% +20% -
10/27/20 10/16-10/21 University of California, Berkeley C/D LV 5,352 Trump
29
Biden
65
+36% +36.4% 0.77
10/26/20 9/27-10/25 SurveyMonkey D- LV 22,234 Trump
36
Biden
62
+26% +21% 0.1
10/26/20 9/27-10/25 SurveyMonkey D- RV 22,234 Trump
35
Biden
62
+27% +22% -
10/25/20 9/26-10/24 SurveyMonkey D- LV 22,268 Trump
36
Biden
62
+26% +21% 0.08
10/25/20 9/26-10/24 SurveyMonkey D- RV 22,268 Trump
35
Biden
62
+27% +22% -
10/24/20 9/26-10/23 SurveyMonkey D- LV 22,491 Trump
36
Biden
62
+26% +21% -
10/24/20 9/26-10/23 SurveyMonkey D- RV 22,491 Trump
36
Biden
62
+26% +21% -
10/23/20 9/24-10/22 SurveyMonkey D- LV 22,654 Trump
36
Biden
62
+26% +21% -
10/23/20 9/24-10/22 SurveyMonkey D- RV 22,654 Trump
35
Biden
62
+27% +22% -
10/22/20 9/24-10/21 SurveyMonkey D- LV 22,980 Trump
36
Biden
62
+26% +21% -
10/22/20 9/24-10/21 SurveyMonkey D- RV 22,980 Trump
35
Biden
62
+27% +22% -
10/22/20 10/9-10/18 Public Policy Institute of California A/B LV 1,185 Trump
32
Biden
58
+26% +27% 0.75
10/21/20 9/23-10/20 SurveyMonkey D- LV 22,989 Trump
36
Biden
62
+26% +21% -
10/21/20 9/23-10/20 SurveyMonkey D- RV 22,989 Trump
35
Biden
62
+27% +22% -
10/20/20 9/22-10/19 SurveyMonkey D- LV 22,797 Trump
36
Biden
62
+26% +21% -
10/20/20 9/22-10/19 SurveyMonkey D- RV 22,797 Trump
35
Biden
62
+27% +22% -
10/19/20 9/20-10/18 SurveyMonkey D- LV 22,780 Trump
36
Biden
63
+27% +22% -
10/19/20 9/20-10/18 SurveyMonkey D- RV 22,780 Trump
35
Biden
63
+28% +23% -
10/18/20 9/19-10/17 SurveyMonkey D- LV 22,834 Trump
35
Biden
63
+28% +23% -
10/18/20 9/19-10/17 SurveyMonkey D- RV 22,834 Trump
35
Biden
63
+28% +23% -
10/17/20 9/19-10/16 SurveyMonkey D- LV 22,865 Trump
35
Biden
63
+28% +23% -
10/17/20 9/19-10/16 SurveyMonkey D- RV 22,865 Trump
35
Biden
63
+28% +23% -
10/16/20 9/17-10/15 SurveyMonkey D- LV 22,318 Trump
36
Biden
62
+26% +21% -
10/16/20 9/17-10/15 SurveyMonkey D- RV 22,318 Trump
35
Biden
62
+27% +22% -
10/15/20 9/16-10/14 SurveyMonkey D- LV 21,759 Trump
36
Biden
63
+27% +22% -
10/15/20 9/16-10/14 SurveyMonkey D- RV 21,759 Trump
35
Biden
63
+28% +23% -
10/14/20 9/15-10/13 SurveyMonkey D- LV 21,460 Trump
36
Biden
62
+26% +21% -
10/14/20 9/15-10/13 SurveyMonkey D- RV 21,460 Trump
35
Biden
63
+28% +23% -
10/13/20 9/14-10/12 SurveyMonkey D- LV 21,492 Trump
36
Biden
63
+27% +22% -
10/13/20 9/14-10/12 SurveyMonkey D- RV 21,492 Trump
35
Biden
63
+28% +23% -
10/3/20 6/8-6/30 SurveyMonkey D- RV 8,412 Trump
34.2
Biden
62.9
+28.7% +23.7% -
10/3/20 6/8-6/30 SurveyMonkey D- LV 8,412 Trump
35.7
Biden
62.2
+26.5% +21.5% -
10/3/20 7/1-7/31 SurveyMonkey D- RV 19,027 Trump
33.6
Biden
63.6
+30% +25% -
10/3/20 7/1-7/31 SurveyMonkey D- LV 19,027 Trump
34.8
Biden
63.1
+28.3% +23.3% -
10/3/20 8/1-8/31 SurveyMonkey D- RV 17,537 Trump
33.5
Biden
63.3
+29.8% +24.8% -
10/3/20 8/1-8/31 SurveyMonkey D- LV 17,537 Trump
35
Biden
63
+28% +23% -
10/2/20 9/1-9/30 SurveyMonkey D- RV 20,346 Trump
33.9
Biden
63.3
+29.4% +24.4% -
10/2/20 9/1-9/30 SurveyMonkey D- LV 20,346 Trump
34.8
Biden
63.3
+28.5% +23.5% -
9/30/20 9/26-9/28 SurveyUSA A LV 558 Trump
32
Biden
59
+27% +26.8% 0.45
9/27/20 9/19-9/21 Redfield & Wilton Strategies LV 1,885 Trump
28
Biden
62
+34% +34% -
9/25/20 9/9-9/15 University of California, Berkeley C/D LV 5,942 Trump
28
Biden
67
+39% +39.4% -
9/17/20 9/4-9/13 Public Policy Institute of California A/B LV 1,168 Trump
31
Biden
60
+29% +30% 0.2
9/16/20 8/22-8/24 David Binder Research B/C LV 800 Trump
31
Biden
61
+30% +30% -
9/7/20 8/29-9/1 Spry Strategies B/C LV 600 Trump
39
Biden
56.2
+17.2% +17.6% -
8/14/20 8/9-8/9 Redfield & Wilton Strategies LV 1,904 Trump
25
Biden
61
+36% +36% -
8/13/20 8/12-8/12 SurveyUSA A A 500 Trump
28
Biden
56
+28% +27.8% 0.16
8/4/20 7/21-7/27 University of California, Berkeley C/D LV 6,756 Trump
28
Biden
67
+39% +39.4% -
6/4/20 5/17-5/26 Public Policy Institute of California A/B LV 1,048 Trump
33
Biden
57
+24% +25% -
5/20/20 5/18-5/19 SurveyUSA A LV 537 Trump
30
Biden
58
+28% +27.8% -
5/11/20 5/8-5/9 Emerson College A- RV 800 Trump
34.8
Biden
65.2
+30.3% +29.9% 0.07
4/1/20 3/28-3/29 Public Policy Polling B V 962 Trump
29
Biden
67
+38% +37.6% -
3/2/20 2/24-3/2 AtlasIntel B/C RV 1,100 Trump
26.2
Biden
62.1
+35.9% +35.9% -
3/2/20 2/26-2/28 YouGov B RV 1,507 Trump
31
Biden
59
+28% +27.6% -
2/28/20 2/20-2/25 University of California, Berkeley C/D LV 6,002 Trump
30.9
Biden
57.8
+26.9% +27.3% -
2/28/20 2/22-2/26 CNN/SSRS B/C RV 951 Trump
35
Biden
60
+25% +23.8% -
2/20/20 2/1-2/15 YouGov B LV 1,200 Trump
30.4
Biden
59.9
+29.5% +29.1% -
2/19/20 2/13-2/16 SurveyUSA A RV 1,196 Trump
37
Biden
57
+20% +19.8% 0.12
1/21/20 1/14-1/16 SurveyUSA A RV 1,967 Trump
35
Biden
59
+24% +23.8% 0.14
12/11/19 12/4-12/8 CNN/SSRS B/C RV 1,011 Trump
36
Biden
56
+20% +18.8% -
11/27/19 11/20-11/22 SurveyUSA A RV 2,039 Trump
32
Biden
59
+27% +26.8% 0.14
10/22/19 10/15-10/16 SurveyUSA A RV 1,242 Trump
32
Biden
59
+27% +26.8% 0.12
9/19/19 9/13-9/15 SurveyUSA A RV 1,785 Trump
31
Biden
57
+26% +25.8% 0.13
9/17/19 9/13-9/16 Emerson College A- RV 830 Trump
36.2
Biden
63.8
+27.6% +27.2% 0.07
8/8/19 8/1-8/5 SurveyUSA A RV 2,184 Trump
27
Biden
61
+34% +33.8% 0.15


Past Results

Year Candidates Republican Democrat Diff
2016 Trump v Clinton 31.6 61.7 +30.1%
2012 Romney v Obama 37.1 60.2 +23.1%
2008 McCain v Obama 37 61 +24.1%
2004 Bush v Kerry 44.4 54.3 +10%
2000 Bush v Gore 41.7 53.5 +11.8%




Updates

Last Updated: 10/28 11:06 AM EDT
10/27
California polls jumped 2.5% toward Biden (was D+26.2%, now D+28.7%)
9/25
California polls jumped 2.2% toward Biden (was D+26.7%, now D+28.9%)
9/7
California polls jumped 2.8% toward Trump (was D+27.8%, now D+25%)
8/4
California polls jumped 2.9% toward Biden (was D+27.3%, now D+30.2%)