California

Live Election Night Forecast

Last Updated: 12/10 11:48 AM EST
Winner
Biden
Biden

Election Night Forecast Changes

Here you can see how the forecast has in California changed throughout the evening (and perhaps coming days?), all times are EST.




California Pre-Election Forecast

If Election Today more aggressive + 2016 Polling Error assumes same polling errors
Test Polling Swings see how a swing changes the model

Safe Biden

Win Probability

Biden
Trump
Biden
100%
Polls: 60.6% +27.8%
Trump
0%
Polls: 32.8%
100%



Swing

 
+2.3%
From 2016 Results
+3%
From 2016 Polls
 





Polls

 
60.6%
Biden (+27.8%)
32.8%
Trump
 

Date Pollster Rating Voters Sample Size Republican Democrat Diff Diff (Adj) Weight
11/2/20 10/20-11/1 SurveyMonkey D- LV 10,925 Trump
36		 Biden
62		 +26% +21% 0.3
11/2/20 10/20-11/1 SurveyMonkey D- RV 10,925 Trump
36		 Biden
62		 +26% +21% -
11/2/20 10/28-11/1 David Binder Research B/C LV 800 Trump
31		 Biden
62		 +31% +31% 1.02
11/1/20 10/18-10/31 SurveyMonkey D- LV 11,324 Trump
36		 Biden
62		 +26% +21% 0.26
11/1/20 10/18-10/31 SurveyMonkey D- RV 11,324 Trump
36		 Biden
62		 +26% +21% -
10/31/20 10/17-10/30 SurveyMonkey D- LV 10,929 Trump
36		 Biden
62		 +26% +21% 0.23
10/31/20 10/17-10/30 SurveyMonkey D- RV 10,929 Trump
36		 Biden
62		 +26% +21% -
10/30/20 10/16-10/29 SurveyMonkey D- LV 11,171 Trump
36		 Biden
62		 +26% +21% 0.2
10/30/20 10/16-10/29 SurveyMonkey D- RV 11,171 Trump
36		 Biden
62		 +26% +21% -
10/30/20 10/23-10/26 Swayable D- LV 635 Trump
35.3		 Biden
62		 +26.7% +26.7% 0.44
10/29/20 9/30-10/28 SurveyMonkey D- LV 22,450 Trump
37		 Biden
61		 +24% +19% -
10/29/20 9/30-10/28 SurveyMonkey D- RV 22,450 Trump
36		 Biden
61		 +25% +20% -
10/28/20 9/30-10/27 SurveyMonkey D- LV 22,170 Trump
37		 Biden
61		 +24% +19% -
10/28/20 9/30-10/27 SurveyMonkey D- RV 22,170 Trump
36		 Biden
61		 +25% +20% -
10/27/20 10/16-10/21 University of California, Berkeley C/D LV 5,352 Trump
29		 Biden
65		 +36% +36.4% 0.56
10/26/20 9/27-10/25 SurveyMonkey D- LV 22,234 Trump
36		 Biden
62		 +26% +21% -
10/26/20 9/27-10/25 SurveyMonkey D- RV 22,234 Trump
35		 Biden
62		 +27% +22% -
10/25/20 9/26-10/24 SurveyMonkey D- LV 22,268 Trump
36		 Biden
62		 +26% +21% -
10/25/20 9/26-10/24 SurveyMonkey D- RV 22,268 Trump
35		 Biden
62		 +27% +22% -
10/24/20 9/26-10/23 SurveyMonkey D- LV 22,491 Trump
36		 Biden
62		 +26% +21% -
10/24/20 9/26-10/23 SurveyMonkey D- RV 22,491 Trump
36		 Biden
62		 +26% +21% -
10/23/20 9/24-10/22 SurveyMonkey D- LV 22,654 Trump
36		 Biden
62		 +26% +21% -
10/23/20 9/24-10/22 SurveyMonkey D- RV 22,654 Trump
35		 Biden
62		 +27% +22% -
10/22/20 9/24-10/21 SurveyMonkey D- LV 22,980 Trump
36		 Biden
62		 +26% +21% -
10/22/20 9/24-10/21 SurveyMonkey D- RV 22,980 Trump
35		 Biden
62		 +27% +22% -
10/22/20 10/9-10/18 Public Policy Institute of California A/B LV 1,185 Trump
32		 Biden
58		 +26% +27% 0.62
10/21/20 9/23-10/20 SurveyMonkey D- LV 22,989 Trump
36		 Biden
62		 +26% +21% -
10/21/20 9/23-10/20 SurveyMonkey D- RV 22,989 Trump
35		 Biden
62		 +27% +22% -
10/20/20 9/22-10/19 SurveyMonkey D- LV 22,797 Trump
36		 Biden
62		 +26% +21% -
10/20/20 9/22-10/19 SurveyMonkey D- RV 22,797 Trump
35		 Biden
62		 +27% +22% -
10/19/20 9/20-10/18 SurveyMonkey D- LV 22,780 Trump
36		 Biden
63		 +27% +22% -
10/19/20 9/20-10/18 SurveyMonkey D- RV 22,780 Trump
35		 Biden
63		 +28% +23% -
10/18/20 9/19-10/17 SurveyMonkey D- LV 22,834 Trump
35		 Biden
63		 +28% +23% -
10/18/20 9/19-10/17 SurveyMonkey D- RV 22,834 Trump
35		 Biden
63		 +28% +23% -
10/17/20 9/19-10/16 SurveyMonkey D- LV 22,865 Trump
35		 Biden
63		 +28% +23% -
10/17/20 9/19-10/16 SurveyMonkey D- RV 22,865 Trump
35		 Biden
63		 +28% +23% -
10/16/20 9/17-10/15 SurveyMonkey D- LV 22,318 Trump
36		 Biden
62		 +26% +21% -
10/16/20 9/17-10/15 SurveyMonkey D- RV 22,318 Trump
35		 Biden
62		 +27% +22% -
10/15/20 9/16-10/14 SurveyMonkey D- LV 21,759 Trump
36		 Biden
63		 +27% +22% -
10/15/20 9/16-10/14 SurveyMonkey D- RV 21,759 Trump
35		 Biden
63		 +28% +23% -
10/14/20 9/15-10/13 SurveyMonkey D- LV 21,460 Trump
36		 Biden
62		 +26% +21% -
10/14/20 9/15-10/13 SurveyMonkey D- RV 21,460 Trump
35		 Biden
63		 +28% +23% -
10/13/20 9/14-10/12 SurveyMonkey D- LV 21,492 Trump
36		 Biden
63		 +27% +22% -
10/13/20 9/14-10/12 SurveyMonkey D- RV 21,492 Trump
35		 Biden
63		 +28% +23% -
10/3/20 6/8-6/30 SurveyMonkey D- RV 8,412 Trump
34.2		 Biden
62.9		 +28.7% +23.7% -
10/3/20 6/8-6/30 SurveyMonkey D- LV 8,412 Trump
35.7		 Biden
62.2		 +26.5% +21.5% -
10/3/20 7/1-7/31 SurveyMonkey D- RV 19,027 Trump
33.6		 Biden
63.6		 +30% +25% -
10/3/20 7/1-7/31 SurveyMonkey D- LV 19,027 Trump
34.8		 Biden
63.1		 +28.3% +23.3% -
10/3/20 8/1-8/31 SurveyMonkey D- RV 17,537 Trump
33.5		 Biden
63.3		 +29.8% +24.8% -
10/3/20 8/1-8/31 SurveyMonkey D- LV 17,537 Trump
35		 Biden
63		 +28% +23% -
10/2/20 9/1-9/30 SurveyMonkey D- RV 20,346 Trump
33.9		 Biden
63.3		 +29.4% +24.4% -
10/2/20 9/1-9/30 SurveyMonkey D- LV 20,346 Trump
34.8		 Biden
63.3		 +28.5% +23.5% -
9/30/20 9/26-9/28 SurveyUSA A LV 558 Trump
32		 Biden
59		 +27% +26.8% 0.35
9/27/20 9/19-9/21 Redfield & Wilton Strategies LV 1,885 Trump
28		 Biden
62		 +34% +34% -
9/25/20 9/9-9/15 University of California, Berkeley C/D LV 5,942 Trump
28		 Biden
67		 +39% +39.4% -
9/17/20 9/4-9/13 Public Policy Institute of California A/B LV 1,168 Trump
31		 Biden
60		 +29% +30% 0.14
9/16/20 8/22-8/24 David Binder Research B/C LV 800 Trump
31		 Biden
61		 +30% +30% -
9/7/20 8/29-9/1 Spry Strategies B/C LV 600 Trump
39		 Biden
56.2		 +17.2% +17.6% -
8/14/20 8/9-8/9 Redfield & Wilton Strategies LV 1,904 Trump
25		 Biden
61		 +36% +36% -
8/13/20 8/12-8/12 SurveyUSA A A 500 Trump
28		 Biden
56		 +28% +27.8% 0.09
8/4/20 7/21-7/27 University of California, Berkeley C/D LV 6,756 Trump
28		 Biden
67		 +39% +39.4% -
6/4/20 5/17-5/26 Public Policy Institute of California A/B LV 1,048 Trump
33		 Biden
57		 +24% +25% -
5/20/20 5/18-5/19 SurveyUSA A LV 537 Trump
30		 Biden
58		 +28% +27.8% -
5/11/20 5/8-5/9 Emerson College A- RV 800 Trump
34.8		 Biden
65.2		 +30.3% +29.9% -
4/1/20 3/28-3/29 Public Policy Polling B V 962 Trump
29		 Biden
67		 +38% +37.6% -
3/2/20 2/24-3/2 AtlasIntel B/C RV 1,100 Trump
26.2		 Biden
62.1		 +35.9% +35.9% -
3/2/20 2/26-2/28 YouGov B RV 1,507 Trump
31		 Biden
59		 +28% +27.6% -
2/28/20 2/20-2/25 University of California, Berkeley C/D LV 6,002 Trump
30.9		 Biden
57.8		 +26.9% +27.3% -
2/28/20 2/22-2/26 CNN/SSRS B/C RV 951 Trump
35		 Biden
60		 +25% +23.8% -
2/20/20 2/1-2/15 YouGov B LV 1,200 Trump
30.4		 Biden
59.9		 +29.5% +29.1% -
2/19/20 2/13-2/16 SurveyUSA A RV 1,196 Trump
37		 Biden
57		 +20% +19.8% 0.09
1/21/20 1/14-1/16 SurveyUSA A RV 1,967 Trump
35		 Biden
59		 +24% +23.8% 0.11
12/11/19 12/4-12/8 CNN/SSRS B/C RV 1,011 Trump
36		 Biden
56		 +20% +18.8% -
11/27/19 11/20-11/22 SurveyUSA A RV 2,039 Trump
32		 Biden
59		 +27% +26.8% 0.12
10/22/19 10/15-10/16 SurveyUSA A RV 1,242 Trump
32		 Biden
59		 +27% +26.8% 0.1
9/19/19 9/13-9/15 SurveyUSA A RV 1,785 Trump
31		 Biden
57		 +26% +25.8% 0.11
9/17/19 9/13-9/16 Emerson College A- RV 830 Trump
36.2		 Biden
63.8		 +27.6% +27.2% -
8/8/19 8/1-8/5 SurveyUSA A RV 2,184 Trump
27		 Biden
61		 +34% +33.8% 0.13


Past Results

Year Candidates Republican Democrat Diff
2016 Trump v Clinton 31.6 61.7 +30.1%
2012 Romney v Obama 37.1 60.2 +23.1%
2008 McCain v Obama 37 61 +24.1%
2004 Bush v Kerry 44.4 54.3 +10%
2000 Bush v Gore 41.7 53.5 +11.8%




Updates

Last Updated: 11/3 1:09 AM EST
10/27
California polls jumped 2.5% toward Biden (was D+26.2%, now D+28.7%)
9/25
California polls jumped 2.2% toward Biden (was D+26.7%, now D+28.9%)
9/7
California polls jumped 2.8% toward Trump (was D+27.8%, now D+25%)
8/4
California polls jumped 2.9% toward Biden (was D+27.3%, now D+30.2%)