California
Live Election Night Forecast
Last Updated: 12/10 11:48 AM ESTElection Night Forecast Changes
Here you can see how the forecast has in California changed throughout the evening (and perhaps coming days?), all times are EST.
California Pre-Election Forecast
Safe Biden
Win Probability
Swing
+2.3%
From 2016 Results
+3%
From 2016 Polls
Polls
60.6%
Biden
(+27.8%)
32.8%
Trump
Date | Pollster | Rating | Voters | Sample Size | Republican | Democrat | Diff | Diff (Adj) | Weight |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
11/2/20 10/20-11/1 | SurveyMonkey | D- | LV | 10,925 | Trump 36 |
Biden 62 |
+26% | +21% | 0.3 |
11/2/20 10/20-11/1 | SurveyMonkey | D- | RV | 10,925 | Trump 36 |
Biden 62 |
+26% | +21% | - |
11/2/20 10/28-11/1 | David Binder Research | B/C | LV | 800 | Trump 31 |
Biden 62 |
+31% | +31% | 1.02 |
11/1/20 10/18-10/31 | SurveyMonkey | D- | LV | 11,324 | Trump 36 |
Biden 62 |
+26% | +21% | 0.26 |
11/1/20 10/18-10/31 | SurveyMonkey | D- | RV | 11,324 | Trump 36 |
Biden 62 |
+26% | +21% | - |
10/31/20 10/17-10/30 | SurveyMonkey | D- | LV | 10,929 | Trump 36 |
Biden 62 |
+26% | +21% | 0.23 |
10/31/20 10/17-10/30 | SurveyMonkey | D- | RV | 10,929 | Trump 36 |
Biden 62 |
+26% | +21% | - |
10/30/20 10/16-10/29 | SurveyMonkey | D- | LV | 11,171 | Trump 36 |
Biden 62 |
+26% | +21% | 0.2 |
10/30/20 10/16-10/29 | SurveyMonkey | D- | RV | 11,171 | Trump 36 |
Biden 62 |
+26% | +21% | - |
10/30/20 10/23-10/26 | Swayable | D- | LV | 635 | Trump 35.3 |
Biden 62 |
+26.7% | +26.7% | 0.44 |
10/29/20 9/30-10/28 | SurveyMonkey | D- | LV | 22,450 | Trump 37 |
Biden 61 |
+24% | +19% | - |
10/29/20 9/30-10/28 | SurveyMonkey | D- | RV | 22,450 | Trump 36 |
Biden 61 |
+25% | +20% | - |
10/28/20 9/30-10/27 | SurveyMonkey | D- | LV | 22,170 | Trump 37 |
Biden 61 |
+24% | +19% | - |
10/28/20 9/30-10/27 | SurveyMonkey | D- | RV | 22,170 | Trump 36 |
Biden 61 |
+25% | +20% | - |
10/27/20 10/16-10/21 | University of California, Berkeley | C/D | LV | 5,352 | Trump 29 |
Biden 65 |
+36% | +36.4% | 0.56 |
10/26/20 9/27-10/25 | SurveyMonkey | D- | LV | 22,234 | Trump 36 |
Biden 62 |
+26% | +21% | - |
10/26/20 9/27-10/25 | SurveyMonkey | D- | RV | 22,234 | Trump 35 |
Biden 62 |
+27% | +22% | - |
10/25/20 9/26-10/24 | SurveyMonkey | D- | LV | 22,268 | Trump 36 |
Biden 62 |
+26% | +21% | - |
10/25/20 9/26-10/24 | SurveyMonkey | D- | RV | 22,268 | Trump 35 |
Biden 62 |
+27% | +22% | - |
10/24/20 9/26-10/23 | SurveyMonkey | D- | LV | 22,491 | Trump 36 |
Biden 62 |
+26% | +21% | - |
10/24/20 9/26-10/23 | SurveyMonkey | D- | RV | 22,491 | Trump 36 |
Biden 62 |
+26% | +21% | - |
10/23/20 9/24-10/22 | SurveyMonkey | D- | LV | 22,654 | Trump 36 |
Biden 62 |
+26% | +21% | - |
10/23/20 9/24-10/22 | SurveyMonkey | D- | RV | 22,654 | Trump 35 |
Biden 62 |
+27% | +22% | - |
10/22/20 9/24-10/21 | SurveyMonkey | D- | LV | 22,980 | Trump 36 |
Biden 62 |
+26% | +21% | - |
10/22/20 9/24-10/21 | SurveyMonkey | D- | RV | 22,980 | Trump 35 |
Biden 62 |
+27% | +22% | - |
10/22/20 10/9-10/18 | Public Policy Institute of California | A/B | LV | 1,185 | Trump 32 |
Biden 58 |
+26% | +27% | 0.62 |
10/21/20 9/23-10/20 | SurveyMonkey | D- | LV | 22,989 | Trump 36 |
Biden 62 |
+26% | +21% | - |
10/21/20 9/23-10/20 | SurveyMonkey | D- | RV | 22,989 | Trump 35 |
Biden 62 |
+27% | +22% | - |
10/20/20 9/22-10/19 | SurveyMonkey | D- | LV | 22,797 | Trump 36 |
Biden 62 |
+26% | +21% | - |
10/20/20 9/22-10/19 | SurveyMonkey | D- | RV | 22,797 | Trump 35 |
Biden 62 |
+27% | +22% | - |
10/19/20 9/20-10/18 | SurveyMonkey | D- | LV | 22,780 | Trump 36 |
Biden 63 |
+27% | +22% | - |
10/19/20 9/20-10/18 | SurveyMonkey | D- | RV | 22,780 | Trump 35 |
Biden 63 |
+28% | +23% | - |
10/18/20 9/19-10/17 | SurveyMonkey | D- | LV | 22,834 | Trump 35 |
Biden 63 |
+28% | +23% | - |
10/18/20 9/19-10/17 | SurveyMonkey | D- | RV | 22,834 | Trump 35 |
Biden 63 |
+28% | +23% | - |
10/17/20 9/19-10/16 | SurveyMonkey | D- | LV | 22,865 | Trump 35 |
Biden 63 |
+28% | +23% | - |
10/17/20 9/19-10/16 | SurveyMonkey | D- | RV | 22,865 | Trump 35 |
Biden 63 |
+28% | +23% | - |
10/16/20 9/17-10/15 | SurveyMonkey | D- | LV | 22,318 | Trump 36 |
Biden 62 |
+26% | +21% | - |
10/16/20 9/17-10/15 | SurveyMonkey | D- | RV | 22,318 | Trump 35 |
Biden 62 |
+27% | +22% | - |
10/15/20 9/16-10/14 | SurveyMonkey | D- | LV | 21,759 | Trump 36 |
Biden 63 |
+27% | +22% | - |
10/15/20 9/16-10/14 | SurveyMonkey | D- | RV | 21,759 | Trump 35 |
Biden 63 |
+28% | +23% | - |
10/14/20 9/15-10/13 | SurveyMonkey | D- | LV | 21,460 | Trump 36 |
Biden 62 |
+26% | +21% | - |
10/14/20 9/15-10/13 | SurveyMonkey | D- | RV | 21,460 | Trump 35 |
Biden 63 |
+28% | +23% | - |
10/13/20 9/14-10/12 | SurveyMonkey | D- | LV | 21,492 | Trump 36 |
Biden 63 |
+27% | +22% | - |
10/13/20 9/14-10/12 | SurveyMonkey | D- | RV | 21,492 | Trump 35 |
Biden 63 |
+28% | +23% | - |
10/3/20 6/8-6/30 | SurveyMonkey | D- | RV | 8,412 | Trump 34.2 |
Biden 62.9 |
+28.7% | +23.7% | - |
10/3/20 6/8-6/30 | SurveyMonkey | D- | LV | 8,412 | Trump 35.7 |
Biden 62.2 |
+26.5% | +21.5% | - |
10/3/20 7/1-7/31 | SurveyMonkey | D- | RV | 19,027 | Trump 33.6 |
Biden 63.6 |
+30% | +25% | - |
10/3/20 7/1-7/31 | SurveyMonkey | D- | LV | 19,027 | Trump 34.8 |
Biden 63.1 |
+28.3% | +23.3% | - |
10/3/20 8/1-8/31 | SurveyMonkey | D- | RV | 17,537 | Trump 33.5 |
Biden 63.3 |
+29.8% | +24.8% | - |
10/3/20 8/1-8/31 | SurveyMonkey | D- | LV | 17,537 | Trump 35 |
Biden 63 |
+28% | +23% | - |
10/2/20 9/1-9/30 | SurveyMonkey | D- | RV | 20,346 | Trump 33.9 |
Biden 63.3 |
+29.4% | +24.4% | - |
10/2/20 9/1-9/30 | SurveyMonkey | D- | LV | 20,346 | Trump 34.8 |
Biden 63.3 |
+28.5% | +23.5% | - |
9/30/20 9/26-9/28 | SurveyUSA | A | LV | 558 | Trump 32 |
Biden 59 |
+27% | +26.8% | 0.35 |
9/27/20 9/19-9/21 | Redfield & Wilton Strategies | LV | 1,885 | Trump 28 |
Biden 62 |
+34% | +34% | - | |
9/25/20 9/9-9/15 | University of California, Berkeley | C/D | LV | 5,942 | Trump 28 |
Biden 67 |
+39% | +39.4% | - |
9/17/20 9/4-9/13 | Public Policy Institute of California | A/B | LV | 1,168 | Trump 31 |
Biden 60 |
+29% | +30% | 0.14 |
9/16/20 8/22-8/24 | David Binder Research | B/C | LV | 800 | Trump 31 |
Biden 61 |
+30% | +30% | - |
9/7/20 8/29-9/1 | Spry Strategies | B/C | LV | 600 | Trump 39 |
Biden 56.2 |
+17.2% | +17.6% | - |
8/14/20 8/9-8/9 | Redfield & Wilton Strategies | LV | 1,904 | Trump 25 |
Biden 61 |
+36% | +36% | - | |
8/13/20 8/12-8/12 | SurveyUSA | A | A | 500 | Trump 28 |
Biden 56 |
+28% | +27.8% | 0.09 |
8/4/20 7/21-7/27 | University of California, Berkeley | C/D | LV | 6,756 | Trump 28 |
Biden 67 |
+39% | +39.4% | - |
6/4/20 5/17-5/26 | Public Policy Institute of California | A/B | LV | 1,048 | Trump 33 |
Biden 57 |
+24% | +25% | - |
5/20/20 5/18-5/19 | SurveyUSA | A | LV | 537 | Trump 30 |
Biden 58 |
+28% | +27.8% | - |
5/11/20 5/8-5/9 | Emerson College | A- | RV | 800 | Trump 34.8 |
Biden 65.2 |
+30.3% | +29.9% | - |
4/1/20 3/28-3/29 | Public Policy Polling | B | V | 962 | Trump 29 |
Biden 67 |
+38% | +37.6% | - |
3/2/20 2/24-3/2 | AtlasIntel | B/C | RV | 1,100 | Trump 26.2 |
Biden 62.1 |
+35.9% | +35.9% | - |
3/2/20 2/26-2/28 | YouGov | B | RV | 1,507 | Trump 31 |
Biden 59 |
+28% | +27.6% | - |
2/28/20 2/20-2/25 | University of California, Berkeley | C/D | LV | 6,002 | Trump 30.9 |
Biden 57.8 |
+26.9% | +27.3% | - |
2/28/20 2/22-2/26 | CNN/SSRS | B/C | RV | 951 | Trump 35 |
Biden 60 |
+25% | +23.8% | - |
2/20/20 2/1-2/15 | YouGov | B | LV | 1,200 | Trump 30.4 |
Biden 59.9 |
+29.5% | +29.1% | - |
2/19/20 2/13-2/16 | SurveyUSA | A | RV | 1,196 | Trump 37 |
Biden 57 |
+20% | +19.8% | 0.09 |
1/21/20 1/14-1/16 | SurveyUSA | A | RV | 1,967 | Trump 35 |
Biden 59 |
+24% | +23.8% | 0.11 |
12/11/19 12/4-12/8 | CNN/SSRS | B/C | RV | 1,011 | Trump 36 |
Biden 56 |
+20% | +18.8% | - |
11/27/19 11/20-11/22 | SurveyUSA | A | RV | 2,039 | Trump 32 |
Biden 59 |
+27% | +26.8% | 0.12 |
10/22/19 10/15-10/16 | SurveyUSA | A | RV | 1,242 | Trump 32 |
Biden 59 |
+27% | +26.8% | 0.1 |
9/19/19 9/13-9/15 | SurveyUSA | A | RV | 1,785 | Trump 31 |
Biden 57 |
+26% | +25.8% | 0.11 |
9/17/19 9/13-9/16 | Emerson College | A- | RV | 830 | Trump 36.2 |
Biden 63.8 |
+27.6% | +27.2% | - |
8/8/19 8/1-8/5 | SurveyUSA | A | RV | 2,184 | Trump 27 |
Biden 61 |
+34% | +33.8% | 0.13 |
Past Results
Year | Candidates | Republican | Democrat | Diff |
---|---|---|---|---|
2016 | Trump v Clinton | 31.6 | 61.7 | +30.1% |
2012 | Romney v Obama | 37.1 | 60.2 | +23.1% |
2008 | McCain v Obama | 37 | 61 | +24.1% |
2004 | Bush v Kerry | 44.4 | 54.3 | +10% |
2000 | Bush v Gore | 41.7 | 53.5 | +11.8% |
Updates
Last Updated: 11/3 1:09 AM EST10/27
9/25
9/7
8/4