Colorado

If Election Today more aggressive + 2016 Polling Error assumes same polling errors

Safe Biden

Win Probability

Biden
Trump
Biden
99.8%
Polls: 52.8% +12.7%
Trump
0.2%
Polls: 40.1%
99.8%
0.2%



Swing

 
+7.8%
From 2016 Results
+7.6%
From 2016 Polls
 



Testing

Standard Deviation: 2.203 Testing Range: +/- 5.16%




Tipping Point



1.4%
of the time





Polls

 
52.8%
Biden (+12.7%)
40.1%
Trump
 

Date Pollster Rating Voters Sample Size Republican Democrat Diff Diff (Adj) Weight
10/26/20 9/28-10/25 SurveyMonkey D- LV 5,714 Trump
40
Biden
59
+19% +14% 0.08
10/26/20 9/28-10/25 SurveyMonkey D- RV 5,714 Trump
38
Biden
60
+22% +17% -
10/25/20 9/27-10/24 SurveyMonkey D- LV 5,656 Trump
40
Biden
59
+19% +14% 0.06
10/25/20 9/27-10/24 SurveyMonkey D- RV 5,656 Trump
38
Biden
60
+22% +17% -
10/24/20 9/26-10/23 SurveyMonkey D- LV 5,623 Trump
40
Biden
59
+19% +14% -
10/24/20 9/26-10/23 SurveyMonkey D- RV 5,623 Trump
38
Biden
60
+22% +17% -
10/23/20 9/24-10/22 SurveyMonkey D- LV 5,598 Trump
40
Biden
58
+18% +13% -
10/23/20 9/24-10/22 SurveyMonkey D- RV 5,598 Trump
38
Biden
60
+22% +17% -
10/22/20 9/24-10/21 SurveyMonkey D- LV 5,545 Trump
40
Biden
58
+18% +13% -
10/22/20 9/24-10/21 SurveyMonkey D- RV 5,545 Trump
38
Biden
59
+21% +16% -
10/22/20 10/11-10/20 Morning Consult B/C LV 788 Trump
39
Biden
55
+16% +15.8% 0.71
10/21/20 9/22-10/20 SurveyMonkey D- LV 5,416 Trump
40
Biden
58
+18% +13% -
10/21/20 9/22-10/20 SurveyMonkey D- RV 5,416 Trump
39
Biden
59
+20% +15% -
10/20/20 9/22-10/19 SurveyMonkey D- LV 5,272 Trump
41
Biden
58
+17% +12% -
10/20/20 9/22-10/19 SurveyMonkey D- RV 5,272 Trump
39
Biden
59
+20% +15% -
10/20/20 10/9-10/15 RMG Research B/C LV 800 Trump
43
Biden
51
+8% +8% 0.61
10/19/20 9/20-10/18 SurveyMonkey D- LV 5,126 Trump
41
Biden
58
+17% +12% -
10/19/20 9/20-10/18 SurveyMonkey D- RV 5,126 Trump
39
Biden
59
+20% +15% -
10/19/20 10/5-10/9 YouGov B LV 800 Trump
38
Biden
47
+9% +8.6% 0.52
10/18/20 10/12-10/16 RBI Strategies & Research B/C LV 502 Trump
38
Biden
55
+17% +17% 0.66
10/18/20 9/20-10/17 SurveyMonkey D- LV 5,054 Trump
41
Biden
58
+17% +12% -
10/18/20 9/20-10/17 SurveyMonkey D- RV 5,054 Trump
39
Biden
59
+20% +15% -
10/17/20 9/19-10/16 SurveyMonkey D- LV 4,955 Trump
41
Biden
57
+16% +11% -
10/17/20 9/19-10/16 SurveyMonkey D- RV 4,955 Trump
39
Biden
59
+20% +15% -
10/16/20 9/18-10/15 SurveyMonkey D- LV 4,722 Trump
41
Biden
57
+16% +11% -
10/16/20 9/18-10/15 SurveyMonkey D- RV 4,722 Trump
39
Biden
58
+19% +14% -
10/15/20 9/17-10/14 SurveyMonkey D- LV 4,345 Trump
42
Biden
57
+15% +10% -
10/15/20 9/17-10/14 SurveyMonkey D- RV 4,345 Trump
40
Biden
58
+18% +13% -
10/15/20 10/8-10/13 Keating Research/OnSight Public Affairs/Melanson B/C LV 519 Trump
39
Biden
54
+15% +15.2% 0.54
10/15/20 10/11-10/14 Civiqs B/C LV 1,013 Trump
42
Biden
54
+12% +12% 0.62
10/14/20 9/16-10/13 SurveyMonkey D- LV 4,111 Trump
41
Biden
57
+16% +11% -
10/14/20 9/16-10/13 SurveyMonkey D- RV 4,111 Trump
40
Biden
58
+18% +13% -
10/13/20 9/15-10/12 SurveyMonkey D- LV 3,875 Trump
41
Biden
57
+16% +11% -
10/13/20 9/15-10/12 SurveyMonkey D- RV 3,875 Trump
40
Biden
58
+18% +13% -
10/13/20 10/2-10/11 Morning Consult B/C LV 837 Trump
40
Biden
54
+14% +13.8% 0.45
10/8/20 10/1-10/6 SurveyUSA A LV 1,021 Trump
40
Biden
50
+10% +9.8% 0.55
10/3/20 6/8-6/30 SurveyMonkey D- RV 1,088 Trump
42.1
Biden
55.9
+13.8% +8.8% -
10/3/20 6/8-6/30 SurveyMonkey D- LV 1,088 Trump
41.8
Biden
56.6
+14.8% +9.8% -
10/3/20 7/1-7/31 SurveyMonkey D- RV 2,337 Trump
39.5
Biden
58.2
+18.7% +13.7% -
10/3/20 7/1-7/31 SurveyMonkey D- LV 2,337 Trump
40.4
Biden
57.8
+17.4% +12.4% -
10/3/20 8/1-8/31 SurveyMonkey D- RV 2,385 Trump
41.6
Biden
55.9
+14.3% +9.3% -
10/3/20 8/1-8/31 SurveyMonkey D- LV 2,385 Trump
41
Biden
57
+16% +11% -
10/2/20 9/1-9/30 SurveyMonkey D- RV 2,717 Trump
41
Biden
56.8
+15.8% +10.8% -
10/2/20 9/1-9/30 SurveyMonkey D- LV 2,717 Trump
41.5
Biden
57
+15.5% +10.5% -
9/14/20 8/28-9/1 Global Strategy Group B/C LV 800 Trump
41
Biden
53
+12% +10.2% -
9/14/20 8/28-9/1 Global Strategy Group B/C LV 800 Trump
39
Biden
50
+11% +9.2% -
9/10/20 8/30-9/5 Fabrizio Ward/Hart Research Associates LV 800 Trump
40
Biden
50
+10% +10% -
9/9/20 8/29-9/7 Morning Consult B/C LV 657 Trump
43
Biden
49
+6% +5.8% -
9/1/20 8/21-8/30 Morning Consult B/C LV 638 Trump
41
Biden
51
+10% +9.8% -
9/1/20 8/7-8/16 Morning Consult B/C LV 601 Trump
41
Biden
51
+10% +9.8% -
7/28/20 5/17-5/26 Morning Consult B/C LV 572 Trump
42
Biden
50
+8% +7.8% -
7/28/20 7/23-7/24 Public Policy Polling B V 891 Trump
41
Biden
54
+13% +12.6% -
7/28/20 7/17-7/26 Morning Consult B/C LV 616 Trump
39
Biden
52
+13% +12.8% -
7/1/20 6/29-6/30 Public Policy Polling B V 840 Trump
39
Biden
56
+17% +16.6% -
5/18/20 5/7-5/11 Global Strategy Group B/C RV 800 Trump
40
Biden
53
+13% +11.2% -
5/6/20 5/1-5/3 Keating Research/OnSight Public Affairs/Melanson B/C LV 600 Trump
36
Biden
55
+19% +19.2% -
5/5/20 4/10-4/19 Montana State University Bozeman/University of Denver LV 380 Trump
35
Biden
53.2
+18.2% +18.2% -
3/2/20 2/15-2/19 Climate Nexus RV 485 Trump
43
Biden
46
+3% +3% -
9/17/19 7/29-7/31 Fabrizio Ward LLC B/C LV 600 Trump
42
Biden
51
+9% +8.8% -
8/20/19 8/16-8/19 Emerson College A- RV 1,000 Trump
45.1
Biden
54.9
+9.8% +9.4% 0.11


Past Results

Year Candidates Republican Democrat Diff
2016 Trump v Clinton 43.3 48.2 +4.9%
2012 Romney v Obama 46.1 51.5 +5.4%
2008 McCain v Obama 44.7 53.7 +9%
2004 Bush v Kerry 51.7 47 +4.7%
2000 Bush v Gore 50.8 42.4 +8.4%




Updates

Last Updated: 10/28 9:44 AM EDT
10/15
Colorado changed from Likely Biden to Safe Biden
9/9
Colorado polls jumped 1.7% toward Trump (was D+11%, now D+9.3%)
9/1
Colorado polls jumped 1.8% toward Trump (was D+12.8%, now D+11%)
7/28
Colorado polls jumped 2.3% toward Biden (was D+10.6%, now D+12.9%)
Colorado changed from Lean Biden to Likely Biden
7/19
Colorado changed from Likely Biden to Lean Biden