Colorado

Live Election Night Forecast

Last Updated: 11/23 9:21 AM EST
Winner
Biden
Biden

Election Night Forecast Changes

Here you can see how the forecast has in Colorado changed throughout the evening (and perhaps coming days?), all times are EST.




Colorado Pre-Election Forecast

If Election Today more aggressive + 2016 Polling Error assumes same polling errors
Test Polling Swings see how a swing changes the model

Safe Biden

Win Probability

Biden
Trump
Biden
100%
Polls: 53.2% +12.2%
Trump
0%
Polls: 41%
100%



Swing

 
+7.3%
From 2016 Results
+7.1%
From 2016 Polls
 



Testing

Standard Deviation: 1.602 Testing Range: +/- 3.76%




Tipping Point



1.1%
of the time





Polls

 
53.2%
Biden (+12.2%)
41%
Trump
 

Date Pollster Rating Voters Sample Size Republican Democrat Diff Diff (Adj) Weight
11/2/20 10/23-11/1 Swayable D- LV 455 Trump
40.7		 Biden
55.4		 +14.7% +14.7% 0.49
11/2/20 10/20-11/1 SurveyMonkey D- LV 2,677 Trump
43		 Biden
55		 +12% +7% 0.21
11/2/20 10/20-11/1 SurveyMonkey D- RV 2,677 Trump
41		 Biden
57		 +16% +11% -
11/2/20 10/22-10/31 Morning Consult B/C LV 727 Trump
40.9		 Biden
53.8		 +12.9% +12.7% 0.88
11/1/20 10/27-11/1 Data for Progress B- LV 709 Trump
42		 Biden
54		 +12% +12% 1.02
11/1/20 10/29-11/1 Keating Research/OnSight Public Affairs/Melanson B/C LV 502 Trump
41		 Biden
53		 +12% +12.2% 1.01
11/1/20 10/18-10/31 SurveyMonkey D- LV 2,888 Trump
43		 Biden
55		 +12% +7% 0.19
11/1/20 10/18-10/31 SurveyMonkey D- RV 2,888 Trump
41		 Biden
57		 +16% +11% -
10/31/20 10/17-10/30 SurveyMonkey D- LV 2,896 Trump
43		 Biden
56		 +13% +8% 0.16
10/31/20 10/17-10/30 SurveyMonkey D- RV 2,896 Trump
41		 Biden
57		 +16% +11% -
10/30/20 10/15-10/29 SurveyMonkey D- LV 2,974 Trump
43		 Biden
55		 +12% +7% 0.12
10/30/20 10/15-10/29 SurveyMonkey D- RV 2,974 Trump
41		 Biden
57		 +16% +11% -
10/29/20 10/1-10/28 SurveyMonkey D- LV 5,925 Trump
40		 Biden
59		 +19% +14% -
10/29/20 10/1-10/28 SurveyMonkey D- RV 5,925 Trump
38		 Biden
60		 +22% +17% -
10/28/20 9/30-10/27 SurveyMonkey D- LV 5,785 Trump
39		 Biden
59		 +20% +15% -
10/28/20 9/30-10/27 SurveyMonkey D- RV 5,785 Trump
38		 Biden
61		 +23% +18% -
10/26/20 9/28-10/25 SurveyMonkey D- LV 5,714 Trump
40		 Biden
59		 +19% +14% -
10/26/20 9/28-10/25 SurveyMonkey D- RV 5,714 Trump
38		 Biden
60		 +22% +17% -
10/25/20 9/27-10/24 SurveyMonkey D- LV 5,656 Trump
40		 Biden
59		 +19% +14% -
10/25/20 9/27-10/24 SurveyMonkey D- RV 5,656 Trump
38		 Biden
60		 +22% +17% -
10/24/20 9/26-10/23 SurveyMonkey D- LV 5,623 Trump
40		 Biden
59		 +19% +14% -
10/24/20 9/26-10/23 SurveyMonkey D- RV 5,623 Trump
38		 Biden
60		 +22% +17% -
10/23/20 9/24-10/22 SurveyMonkey D- LV 5,598 Trump
40		 Biden
58		 +18% +13% -
10/23/20 9/24-10/22 SurveyMonkey D- RV 5,598 Trump
38		 Biden
60		 +22% +17% -
10/22/20 9/24-10/21 SurveyMonkey D- LV 5,545 Trump
40		 Biden
58		 +18% +13% -
10/22/20 9/24-10/21 SurveyMonkey D- RV 5,545 Trump
38		 Biden
59		 +21% +16% -
10/22/20 10/11-10/20 Morning Consult B/C LV 788 Trump
39		 Biden
55		 +16% +15.8% 0.55
10/21/20 9/22-10/20 SurveyMonkey D- LV 5,416 Trump
40		 Biden
58		 +18% +13% -
10/21/20 9/22-10/20 SurveyMonkey D- RV 5,416 Trump
39		 Biden
59		 +20% +15% -
10/20/20 9/22-10/19 SurveyMonkey D- LV 5,272 Trump
41		 Biden
58		 +17% +12% -
10/20/20 9/22-10/19 SurveyMonkey D- RV 5,272 Trump
39		 Biden
59		 +20% +15% -
10/20/20 10/9-10/15 RMG Research B/C LV 800 Trump
43		 Biden
51		 +8% +8% 0.44
10/19/20 9/20-10/18 SurveyMonkey D- LV 5,126 Trump
41		 Biden
58		 +17% +12% -
10/19/20 9/20-10/18 SurveyMonkey D- RV 5,126 Trump
39		 Biden
59		 +20% +15% -
10/19/20 10/5-10/9 YouGov B LV 800 Trump
38		 Biden
47		 +9% +8.6% 0.38
10/18/20 10/12-10/16 RBI Strategies & Research B/C LV 502 Trump
38		 Biden
55		 +17% +17% 0.49
10/18/20 9/20-10/17 SurveyMonkey D- LV 5,054 Trump
41		 Biden
58		 +17% +12% -
10/18/20 9/20-10/17 SurveyMonkey D- RV 5,054 Trump
39		 Biden
59		 +20% +15% -
10/17/20 9/19-10/16 SurveyMonkey D- LV 4,955 Trump
41		 Biden
57		 +16% +11% -
10/17/20 9/19-10/16 SurveyMonkey D- RV 4,955 Trump
39		 Biden
59		 +20% +15% -
10/16/20 9/18-10/15 SurveyMonkey D- LV 4,722 Trump
41		 Biden
57		 +16% +11% -
10/16/20 9/18-10/15 SurveyMonkey D- RV 4,722 Trump
39		 Biden
58		 +19% +14% -
10/15/20 9/17-10/14 SurveyMonkey D- LV 4,345 Trump
42		 Biden
57		 +15% +10% -
10/15/20 9/17-10/14 SurveyMonkey D- RV 4,345 Trump
40		 Biden
58		 +18% +13% -
10/15/20 10/8-10/13 Keating Research/OnSight Public Affairs/Melanson B/C LV 519 Trump
39		 Biden
54		 +15% +15.2% 0.4
10/15/20 10/11-10/14 Civiqs B/C LV 1,013 Trump
42		 Biden
54		 +12% +12% 0.48
10/14/20 9/16-10/13 SurveyMonkey D- LV 4,111 Trump
41		 Biden
57		 +16% +11% -
10/14/20 9/16-10/13 SurveyMonkey D- RV 4,111 Trump
40		 Biden
58		 +18% +13% -
10/13/20 9/15-10/12 SurveyMonkey D- LV 3,875 Trump
41		 Biden
57		 +16% +11% -
10/13/20 9/15-10/12 SurveyMonkey D- RV 3,875 Trump
40		 Biden
58		 +18% +13% -
10/13/20 10/2-10/11 Morning Consult B/C LV 837 Trump
40		 Biden
54		 +14% +13.8% 0.33
10/8/20 10/1-10/6 SurveyUSA A LV 1,021 Trump
40		 Biden
50		 +10% +9.8% 0.45
10/3/20 6/8-6/30 SurveyMonkey D- RV 1,088 Trump
42.1		 Biden
55.9		 +13.8% +8.8% -
10/3/20 6/8-6/30 SurveyMonkey D- LV 1,088 Trump
41.8		 Biden
56.6		 +14.8% +9.8% -
10/3/20 7/1-7/31 SurveyMonkey D- RV 2,337 Trump
39.5		 Biden
58.2		 +18.7% +13.7% -
10/3/20 7/1-7/31 SurveyMonkey D- LV 2,337 Trump
40.4		 Biden
57.8		 +17.4% +12.4% -
10/3/20 8/1-8/31 SurveyMonkey D- RV 2,385 Trump
41.6		 Biden
55.9		 +14.3% +9.3% -
10/3/20 8/1-8/31 SurveyMonkey D- LV 2,385 Trump
41		 Biden
57		 +16% +11% -
10/2/20 9/1-9/30 SurveyMonkey D- RV 2,717 Trump
41		 Biden
56.8		 +15.8% +10.8% -
10/2/20 9/1-9/30 SurveyMonkey D- LV 2,717 Trump
41.5		 Biden
57		 +15.5% +10.5% -
9/14/20 8/28-9/1 Global Strategy Group B/C LV 800 Trump
41		 Biden
53		 +12% +10.2% -
9/14/20 8/28-9/1 Global Strategy Group B/C LV 800 Trump
39		 Biden
50		 +11% +9.2% -
9/10/20 8/30-9/5 Fabrizio Ward/Hart Research Associates LV 800 Trump
40		 Biden
50		 +10% +10% -
9/9/20 8/29-9/7 Morning Consult B/C LV 657 Trump
43		 Biden
49		 +6% +5.8% -
9/1/20 8/21-8/30 Morning Consult B/C LV 638 Trump
41		 Biden
51		 +10% +9.8% -
9/1/20 8/7-8/16 Morning Consult B/C LV 601 Trump
41		 Biden
51		 +10% +9.8% -
7/28/20 5/17-5/26 Morning Consult B/C LV 572 Trump
42		 Biden
50		 +8% +7.8% -
7/28/20 7/23-7/24 Public Policy Polling B V 891 Trump
41		 Biden
54		 +13% +12.6% -
7/28/20 7/17-7/26 Morning Consult B/C LV 616 Trump
39		 Biden
52		 +13% +12.8% -
7/1/20 6/29-6/30 Public Policy Polling B V 840 Trump
39		 Biden
56		 +17% +16.6% -
5/18/20 5/7-5/11 Global Strategy Group B/C RV 800 Trump
40		 Biden
53		 +13% +11.2% -
5/6/20 5/1-5/3 Keating Research/OnSight Public Affairs/Melanson B/C LV 600 Trump
36		 Biden
55		 +19% +19.2% -
5/5/20 4/10-4/19 Montana State University Bozeman/University of Denver LV 380 Trump
35		 Biden
53.2		 +18.2% +18.2% -
3/2/20 2/15-2/19 Climate Nexus RV 485 Trump
43		 Biden
46		 +3% +3% -
9/17/19 7/29-7/31 Fabrizio Ward LLC B/C LV 600 Trump
42		 Biden
51		 +9% +8.8% -
8/20/19 8/16-8/19 Emerson College A- RV 1,000 Trump
45.1		 Biden
54.9		 +9.8% +9.4% 0.06


Past Results

Year Candidates Republican Democrat Diff
2016 Trump v Clinton 43.3 48.2 +4.9%
2012 Romney v Obama 46.1 51.5 +5.4%
2008 McCain v Obama 44.7 53.7 +9%
2004 Bush v Kerry 51.7 47 +4.7%
2000 Bush v Gore 50.8 42.4 +8.4%




Updates

Last Updated: 11/3 2:36 AM EST
10/15
Colorado changed from Likely Biden to Safe Biden
9/9
Colorado polls jumped 1.7% toward Trump (was D+11%, now D+9.3%)
9/1
Colorado polls jumped 1.8% toward Trump (was D+12.8%, now D+11%)
7/28
Colorado polls jumped 2.3% toward Biden (was D+10.6%, now D+12.9%)
Colorado changed from Lean Biden to Likely Biden
7/19
Colorado changed from Likely Biden to Lean Biden