Connecticut

Live Election Night Forecast

Last Updated: 5/15 2:24 AM EDT
Winner
Biden
Biden

Election Night Forecast Changes

Here you can see how the forecast has in Connecticut changed throughout the evening (and perhaps coming days?), all times are EST.




Connecticut Pre-Election Forecast

If Election Today more aggressive + 2016 Polling Error assumes same polling errors
Test Polling Swings see how a swing changes the model

Safe Biden

Win Probability

Biden
Trump
Biden
100%
Polls: 57.3% +22.8%
Trump
0%
Polls: 34.5%
100%



Swing

 
+9.1%
From 2016 Results
+12.4%
From 2016 Polls
 





Polls

 
57.3%
Biden (+22.8%)
34.5%
Trump
 

Date Pollster Rating Voters Sample Size Republican Democrat Diff Diff (Adj) Weight
11/2/20 10/23-11/1 Swayable D- LV 367 Trump
33.7		 Biden
64.1		 +30.4% +30.4% 0.49
11/2/20 10/20-11/1 SurveyMonkey D- LV 1,867 Trump
38		 Biden
60		 +22% +17% 0.26
11/2/20 10/20-11/1 SurveyMonkey D- RV 1,867 Trump
37		 Biden
61		 +24% +19% -
11/1/20 10/18-10/31 SurveyMonkey D- LV 1,928 Trump
38		 Biden
61		 +23% +18% 0.23
11/1/20 10/18-10/31 SurveyMonkey D- RV 1,928 Trump
37		 Biden
61		 +24% +19% -
10/31/20 10/17-10/30 SurveyMonkey D- LV 1,907 Trump
38		 Biden
61		 +23% +18% 0.21
10/31/20 10/17-10/30 SurveyMonkey D- RV 1,907 Trump
37		 Biden
62		 +25% +20% -
10/30/20 10/16-10/29 SurveyMonkey D- LV 1,971 Trump
39		 Biden
60		 +21% +16% 0.19
10/30/20 10/16-10/29 SurveyMonkey D- RV 1,971 Trump
37		 Biden
61		 +24% +19% -
10/30/20 10/8-10/21 Sacred Heart University B/C A 1,000 Trump
26.4		 Biden
51.4		 +25% +25.4% 0.54
10/29/20 10/1-10/28 SurveyMonkey D- LV 3,782 Trump
35		 Biden
63		 +28% +23% 0.06
10/29/20 10/1-10/28 SurveyMonkey D- RV 3,782 Trump
34		 Biden
63		 +29% +24% -
10/28/20 9/30-10/27 SurveyMonkey D- LV 3,632 Trump
35		 Biden
63		 +28% +23% -
10/28/20 9/30-10/27 SurveyMonkey D- RV 3,632 Trump
34		 Biden
63		 +29% +24% -
10/26/20 9/28-10/25 SurveyMonkey D- LV 3,490 Trump
35		 Biden
63		 +28% +23% -
10/26/20 9/28-10/25 SurveyMonkey D- RV 3,490 Trump
34		 Biden
63		 +29% +24% -
10/25/20 9/27-10/24 SurveyMonkey D- LV 3,469 Trump
35		 Biden
63		 +28% +23% -
10/25/20 9/27-10/24 SurveyMonkey D- RV 3,469 Trump
34		 Biden
63		 +29% +24% -
10/24/20 9/25-10/23 SurveyMonkey D- LV 3,442 Trump
35		 Biden
63		 +28% +23% -
10/24/20 9/25-10/23 SurveyMonkey D- RV 3,442 Trump
34		 Biden
62		 +28% +23% -
10/23/20 9/25-10/22 SurveyMonkey D- LV 3,368 Trump
35		 Biden
62		 +27% +22% -
10/23/20 9/25-10/22 SurveyMonkey D- RV 3,368 Trump
35		 Biden
62		 +27% +22% -
10/22/20 9/24-10/21 SurveyMonkey D- LV 3,224 Trump
36		 Biden
62		 +26% +21% -
10/22/20 9/24-10/21 SurveyMonkey D- RV 3,224 Trump
35		 Biden
61		 +26% +21% -
10/21/20 9/23-10/20 SurveyMonkey D- LV 3,105 Trump
36		 Biden
62		 +26% +21% -
10/21/20 9/23-10/20 SurveyMonkey D- RV 3,105 Trump
35		 Biden
61		 +26% +21% -
10/20/20 9/21-10/19 SurveyMonkey D- LV 3,020 Trump
36		 Biden
62		 +26% +21% -
10/20/20 9/21-10/19 SurveyMonkey D- RV 3,020 Trump
35		 Biden
61		 +26% +21% -
10/19/20 9/21-10/18 SurveyMonkey D- LV 2,935 Trump
35		 Biden
62		 +27% +22% -
10/19/20 9/21-10/18 SurveyMonkey D- RV 2,935 Trump
35		 Biden
61		 +26% +21% -
10/18/20 9/20-10/17 SurveyMonkey D- LV 2,907 Trump
34		 Biden
63		 +29% +24% -
10/18/20 9/20-10/17 SurveyMonkey D- RV 2,907 Trump
34		 Biden
62		 +28% +23% -
10/17/20 9/18-10/16 SurveyMonkey D- LV 2,862 Trump
35		 Biden
63		 +28% +23% -
10/17/20 9/18-10/16 SurveyMonkey D- RV 2,862 Trump
34		 Biden
62		 +28% +23% -
10/16/20 9/18-10/15 SurveyMonkey D- LV 2,681 Trump
34		 Biden
64		 +30% +25% -
10/16/20 9/18-10/15 SurveyMonkey D- RV 2,681 Trump
33		 Biden
63		 +30% +25% -
10/15/20 9/17-10/14 SurveyMonkey D- LV 2,453 Trump
34		 Biden
63		 +29% +24% -
10/15/20 9/17-10/14 SurveyMonkey D- RV 2,453 Trump
34		 Biden
62		 +28% +23% -
10/14/20 9/16-10/13 SurveyMonkey D- LV 2,197 Trump
35		 Biden
62		 +27% +22% -
10/14/20 9/16-10/13 SurveyMonkey D- RV 2,197 Trump
34		 Biden
62		 +28% +23% -
10/13/20 9/15-10/12 SurveyMonkey D- LV 2,088 Trump
35		 Biden
62		 +27% +22% -
10/13/20 9/15-10/12 SurveyMonkey D- RV 2,088 Trump
34		 Biden
62		 +28% +23% -
10/3/20 6/8-6/30 SurveyMonkey D- RV 574 Trump
31.8		 Biden
64.7		 +32.9% +27.9% -
10/3/20 6/8-6/30 SurveyMonkey D- LV 574 Trump
32.1		 Biden
65.2		 +33.1% +28.1% -
10/3/20 7/1-7/31 SurveyMonkey D- RV 1,360 Trump
38.2		 Biden
59.1		 +20.9% +15.9% -
10/3/20 7/1-7/31 SurveyMonkey D- LV 1,360 Trump
38.7		 Biden
59.4		 +20.7% +15.7% -
10/3/20 8/1-8/31 SurveyMonkey D- RV 1,009 Trump
34		 Biden
64.1		 +30.1% +25.1% -
10/3/20 8/1-8/31 SurveyMonkey D- LV 1,009 Trump
35		 Biden
64		 +29% +24% -
10/2/20 9/1-9/30 SurveyMonkey D- RV 1,415 Trump
36		 Biden
61.3		 +25.2% +20.2% -
10/2/20 9/1-9/30 SurveyMonkey D- LV 1,415 Trump
37.1		 Biden
61.3		 +24.2% +19.2% -
8/15/20 5/19-5/24 SurveyUSA A RV 808 Trump
32		 Biden
52		 +20% +19.8% 0.13
5/6/20 4/30-5/4 Quinnipiac University B+ RV 945 Trump
33		 Biden
56		 +23% +22.8% -
4/14/20 3/24-4/3 Sacred Heart University B/C A 1,000 Trump
34.1		 Biden
47.3		 +13.2% +13.6% -
3/19/20 2/24-3/12 Sacred Heart University B/C A 1,000 Trump
35.6		 Biden
51.9		 +16.3% +16.7% -
1/12/20 12/16-1/2 Sacred Heart University B/C A 1,000 Trump
32.3		 Biden
51.7		 +19.4% +19.8% -
10/9/19 9/17-10/2 Sacred Heart University B/C A 1,000 Trump
33.3		 Biden
52.2		 +18.9% +19.3% -


Past Results

Year Candidates Republican Democrat Diff
2016 Trump v Clinton 40.9 54.6 +13.6%
2012 Romney v Obama 40.7 58.1 +17.3%
2008 McCain v Obama 38.2 60.6 +22.4%
2004 Bush v Kerry 44 54.3 +10.4%
2000 Bush v Gore 38.4 55.9 +17.5%




Updates

Last Updated: 11/3 12:25 AM EDT
11/2
Connecticut polls jumped 1.7% toward Biden (was D+21.1%, now D+22.8%)
10/3
Connecticut polls jumped 2.6% toward Trump (was D+23.2%, now D+20.6%)
8/9
Connecticut changed from Likely Biden to Safe Biden