Connecticut

If Election Today more aggressive + 2016 Polling Error assumes same polling errors

Safe Biden

Win Probability

Biden
Trump
Biden
100%
Polls: 57.9% +21.9%
Trump
0%
Polls: 36%
100%



Swing

 
+8.2%
From 2016 Results
+11.5%
From 2016 Polls
 





Polls

 
57.9%
Biden (+21.9%)
36%
Trump
 

Date Pollster Rating Voters Sample Size Republican Democrat Diff Diff (Adj) Weight
10/26/20 9/28-10/25 SurveyMonkey D- LV 3,490 Trump
35
Biden
63
+28% +23% 0.13
10/26/20 9/28-10/25 SurveyMonkey D- RV 3,490 Trump
34
Biden
63
+29% +24% -
10/25/20 9/27-10/24 SurveyMonkey D- LV 3,469 Trump
35
Biden
63
+28% +23% 0.11
10/25/20 9/27-10/24 SurveyMonkey D- RV 3,469 Trump
34
Biden
63
+29% +24% -
10/24/20 9/25-10/23 SurveyMonkey D- LV 3,442 Trump
35
Biden
63
+28% +23% 0.1
10/24/20 9/25-10/23 SurveyMonkey D- RV 3,442 Trump
34
Biden
62
+28% +23% -
10/23/20 9/25-10/22 SurveyMonkey D- LV 3,368 Trump
35
Biden
62
+27% +22% 0.08
10/23/20 9/25-10/22 SurveyMonkey D- RV 3,368 Trump
35
Biden
62
+27% +22% -
10/22/20 9/24-10/21 SurveyMonkey D- LV 3,224 Trump
36
Biden
62
+26% +21% 0.06
10/22/20 9/24-10/21 SurveyMonkey D- RV 3,224 Trump
35
Biden
61
+26% +21% -
10/21/20 9/23-10/20 SurveyMonkey D- LV 3,105 Trump
36
Biden
62
+26% +21% 0.04
10/21/20 9/23-10/20 SurveyMonkey D- RV 3,105 Trump
35
Biden
61
+26% +21% -
10/20/20 9/21-10/19 SurveyMonkey D- LV 3,020 Trump
36
Biden
62
+26% +21% -
10/20/20 9/21-10/19 SurveyMonkey D- RV 3,020 Trump
35
Biden
61
+26% +21% -
10/19/20 9/21-10/18 SurveyMonkey D- LV 2,935 Trump
35
Biden
62
+27% +22% -
10/19/20 9/21-10/18 SurveyMonkey D- RV 2,935 Trump
35
Biden
61
+26% +21% -
10/18/20 9/20-10/17 SurveyMonkey D- LV 2,907 Trump
34
Biden
63
+29% +24% -
10/18/20 9/20-10/17 SurveyMonkey D- RV 2,907 Trump
34
Biden
62
+28% +23% -
10/17/20 9/18-10/16 SurveyMonkey D- LV 2,862 Trump
35
Biden
63
+28% +23% -
10/17/20 9/18-10/16 SurveyMonkey D- RV 2,862 Trump
34
Biden
62
+28% +23% -
10/16/20 9/18-10/15 SurveyMonkey D- LV 2,681 Trump
34
Biden
64
+30% +25% -
10/16/20 9/18-10/15 SurveyMonkey D- RV 2,681 Trump
33
Biden
63
+30% +25% -
10/15/20 9/17-10/14 SurveyMonkey D- LV 2,453 Trump
34
Biden
63
+29% +24% -
10/15/20 9/17-10/14 SurveyMonkey D- RV 2,453 Trump
34
Biden
62
+28% +23% -
10/14/20 9/16-10/13 SurveyMonkey D- LV 2,197 Trump
35
Biden
62
+27% +22% -
10/14/20 9/16-10/13 SurveyMonkey D- RV 2,197 Trump
34
Biden
62
+28% +23% -
10/13/20 9/15-10/12 SurveyMonkey D- LV 2,088 Trump
35
Biden
62
+27% +22% -
10/13/20 9/15-10/12 SurveyMonkey D- RV 2,088 Trump
34
Biden
62
+28% +23% -
10/3/20 6/8-6/30 SurveyMonkey D- RV 574 Trump
31.8
Biden
64.7
+32.9% +27.9% -
10/3/20 6/8-6/30 SurveyMonkey D- LV 574 Trump
32.1
Biden
65.2
+33.1% +28.1% -
10/3/20 7/1-7/31 SurveyMonkey D- RV 1,360 Trump
38.2
Biden
59.1
+20.9% +15.9% -
10/3/20 7/1-7/31 SurveyMonkey D- LV 1,360 Trump
38.7
Biden
59.4
+20.7% +15.7% -
10/3/20 8/1-8/31 SurveyMonkey D- RV 1,009 Trump
34
Biden
64.1
+30.1% +25.1% -
10/3/20 8/1-8/31 SurveyMonkey D- LV 1,009 Trump
35
Biden
64
+29% +24% -
10/2/20 9/1-9/30 SurveyMonkey D- RV 1,415 Trump
36
Biden
61.3
+25.2% +20.2% -
10/2/20 9/1-9/30 SurveyMonkey D- LV 1,415 Trump
37.1
Biden
61.3
+24.2% +19.2% -
8/15/20 5/19-5/24 SurveyUSA A RV 808 Trump
32
Biden
52
+20% +19.8% 0.17
5/6/20 4/30-5/4 Quinnipiac University B+ RV 945 Trump
33
Biden
56
+23% +22.8% 0.07
4/14/20 3/24-4/3 Sacred Heart University B/C A 1,000 Trump
34.1
Biden
47.3
+13.2% +13.6% -
3/19/20 2/24-3/12 Sacred Heart University B/C A 1,000 Trump
35.6
Biden
51.9
+16.3% +16.7% -
1/12/20 12/16-1/2 Sacred Heart University B/C A 1,000 Trump
32.3
Biden
51.7
+19.4% +19.8% -
10/9/19 9/17-10/2 Sacred Heart University B/C A 1,000 Trump
33.3
Biden
52.2
+18.9% +19.3% -


Past Results

Year Candidates Republican Democrat Diff
2016 Trump v Clinton 40.9 54.6 +13.6%
2012 Romney v Obama 40.7 58.1 +17.3%
2008 McCain v Obama 38.2 60.6 +22.4%
2004 Bush v Kerry 44 54.3 +10.4%
2000 Bush v Gore 38.4 55.9 +17.5%




Updates

Last Updated: 10/27 10:40 PM EDT
10/3
Connecticut polls jumped 2.6% toward Trump (was D+23.2%, now D+20.6%)
8/9
Connecticut changed from Likely Biden to Safe Biden