Delaware

Live Election Night Forecast

Last Updated: 12/10 11:48 AM EST
Winner
Biden
Biden

Election Night Forecast Changes

Here you can see how the forecast has in Delaware changed throughout the evening (and perhaps coming days?), all times are EST.




Delaware Pre-Election Forecast

If Election Today more aggressive + 2016 Polling Error assumes same polling errors
Test Polling Swings see how a swing changes the model

Safe Biden

Win Probability

Biden
Trump
Biden
100%
Polls: 57.9% +17.3%
Trump
0%
Polls: 40.6%
100%



Swing

 
+5.9%
From 2016 Results
+7.2%
From 2016 Polls
 





Polls

 
57.9%
Biden (+17.3%)
40.6%
Trump
 

Date Pollster Rating Voters Sample Size Republican Democrat Diff Diff (Adj) Weight
11/2/20 10/20-11/1 SurveyMonkey D- LV 588 Trump
38		 Biden
61		 +23% +18% 0.24
11/2/20 10/20-11/1 SurveyMonkey D- RV 588 Trump
37		 Biden
62		 +25% +20% -
11/1/20 10/18-10/31 SurveyMonkey D- LV 664 Trump
39		 Biden
60		 +21% +16% 0.22
11/1/20 10/18-10/31 SurveyMonkey D- RV 664 Trump
38		 Biden
61		 +23% +18% -
10/31/20 10/17-10/30 SurveyMonkey D- LV 668 Trump
39		 Biden
60		 +21% +16% 0.2
10/31/20 10/17-10/30 SurveyMonkey D- RV 668 Trump
37		 Biden
61		 +24% +19% -
10/30/20 10/16-10/29 SurveyMonkey D- LV 696 Trump
39		 Biden
60		 +21% +16% 0.18
10/30/20 10/16-10/29 SurveyMonkey D- RV 696 Trump
37		 Biden
62		 +25% +20% -
10/29/20 10/1-10/28 SurveyMonkey D- LV 1,323 Trump
37		 Biden
62		 +25% +20% 0.07
10/29/20 10/1-10/28 SurveyMonkey D- RV 1,323 Trump
35		 Biden
63		 +28% +23% -
10/28/20 9/30-10/27 SurveyMonkey D- LV 1,288 Trump
37		 Biden
61		 +24% +19% 0.05
10/28/20 9/30-10/27 SurveyMonkey D- RV 1,288 Trump
37		 Biden
61		 +24% +19% -
10/26/20 9/28-10/25 SurveyMonkey D- LV 1,212 Trump
36		 Biden
62		 +26% +21% 0.02
10/26/20 9/28-10/25 SurveyMonkey D- RV 1,212 Trump
35		 Biden
63		 +28% +23% -
10/25/20 9/26-10/24 SurveyMonkey D- LV 1,194 Trump
36		 Biden
62		 +26% +21% -
10/25/20 9/26-10/24 SurveyMonkey D- RV 1,194 Trump
35		 Biden
63		 +28% +23% -
10/24/20 9/26-10/23 SurveyMonkey D- LV 1,182 Trump
36		 Biden
62		 +26% +21% -
10/24/20 9/26-10/23 SurveyMonkey D- RV 1,182 Trump
35		 Biden
63		 +28% +23% -
10/23/20 9/25-10/22 SurveyMonkey D- LV 1,161 Trump
35		 Biden
63		 +28% +23% -
10/23/20 9/25-10/22 SurveyMonkey D- RV 1,161 Trump
34		 Biden
63		 +29% +24% -
10/22/20 9/24-10/21 SurveyMonkey D- LV 1,120 Trump
36		 Biden
63		 +27% +22% -
10/22/20 9/24-10/21 SurveyMonkey D- RV 1,120 Trump
35		 Biden
63		 +28% +23% -
10/21/20 9/23-10/20 SurveyMonkey D- LV 1,075 Trump
35		 Biden
63		 +28% +23% -
10/21/20 9/23-10/20 SurveyMonkey D- RV 1,075 Trump
34		 Biden
64		 +30% +25% -
10/20/20 9/22-10/19 SurveyMonkey D- LV 1,044 Trump
35		 Biden
63		 +28% +23% -
10/20/20 9/22-10/19 SurveyMonkey D- RV 1,044 Trump
34		 Biden
64		 +30% +25% -
10/19/20 9/21-10/18 SurveyMonkey D- LV 989 Trump
35		 Biden
64		 +29% +24% -
10/19/20 9/21-10/18 SurveyMonkey D- RV 989 Trump
34		 Biden
64		 +30% +25% -
10/18/20 9/20-10/17 SurveyMonkey D- LV 969 Trump
34		 Biden
65		 +31% +26% -
10/18/20 9/20-10/17 SurveyMonkey D- RV 969 Trump
33		 Biden
64		 +31% +26% -
10/17/20 9/19-10/16 SurveyMonkey D- LV 952 Trump
34		 Biden
64		 +30% +25% -
10/17/20 9/19-10/16 SurveyMonkey D- RV 952 Trump
33		 Biden
64		 +31% +26% -
10/16/20 9/18-10/15 SurveyMonkey D- LV 900 Trump
33		 Biden
65		 +32% +27% -
10/16/20 9/18-10/15 SurveyMonkey D- RV 900 Trump
33		 Biden
64		 +31% +26% -
10/15/20 9/17-10/14 SurveyMonkey D- LV 848 Trump
33		 Biden
65		 +32% +27% -
10/15/20 9/17-10/14 SurveyMonkey D- RV 848 Trump
32		 Biden
65		 +33% +28% -
10/14/20 9/15-10/13 SurveyMonkey D- LV 776 Trump
34		 Biden
64		 +30% +25% -
10/14/20 9/15-10/13 SurveyMonkey D- RV 776 Trump
33		 Biden
65		 +32% +27% -
10/13/20 9/15-10/12 SurveyMonkey D- LV 740 Trump
35		 Biden
63		 +28% +23% -
10/13/20 9/15-10/12 SurveyMonkey D- RV 740 Trump
34		 Biden
64		 +30% +25% -
10/5/20 9/21-9/27 University of Delaware LV 847 Trump
33		 Biden
54		 +21% +21% -
10/3/20 6/8-6/30 SurveyMonkey D- RV 232 Trump
30.5		 Biden
65.5		 +35% +30% -
10/3/20 6/8-6/30 SurveyMonkey D- LV 232 Trump
33.7		 Biden
64.1		 +30.5% +25.5% -
10/3/20 7/1-7/31 SurveyMonkey D- RV 453 Trump
29		 Biden
69		 +40% +35% -
10/3/20 7/1-7/31 SurveyMonkey D- LV 453 Trump
31		 Biden
67.3		 +36.3% +31.3% -
10/3/20 8/1-8/31 SurveyMonkey D- RV 348 Trump
32.6		 Biden
66.6		 +34% +29% -
10/3/20 8/1-8/31 SurveyMonkey D- LV 348 Trump
32		 Biden
67		 +35% +30% -
10/2/20 9/1-9/30 SurveyMonkey D- RV 395 Trump
37.3		 Biden
61		 +23.6% +18.6% -
10/2/20 9/1-9/30 SurveyMonkey D- LV 395 Trump
37.2		 Biden
61.2		 +24.1% +19.1% -
8/25/20 8/21-8/22 Public Policy Polling B V 710 Trump
37		 Biden
58		 +21% +20.6% 0.11
1/28/20 1/16-1/21 Gonzales Research & Marketing Strategies Inc. B/C LV 410 Trump
40.2		 Biden
55.9		 +15.7% +16.1% -


Past Results

Year Candidates Republican Democrat Diff
2016 Trump v Clinton 41.7 53.1 +11.4%
2012 Romney v Obama 40 58.6 +18.6%
2008 McCain v Obama 37 61.9 +25%
2004 Bush v Kerry 45.8 53.4 +7.6%
2000 Bush v Gore 41.9 55 +13.1%




Updates

Last Updated: 11/3 8:40 AM EST
10/30
Delaware polls jumped 1.5% toward Trump (was D+20.5%, now D+19%)
10/3
Delaware polls jumped 3.9% toward Trump (was D+26.3%, now D+22.4%)