District of Columbia

Live Election Night Forecast

Last Updated: 11/21 2:56 PM EST
Winner
Biden
Biden

Election Night Forecast Changes

Here you can see how the forecast has in District of Columbia changed throughout the evening (and perhaps coming days?), all times are EST.





District of Columbia Pre-Election Forecast

If Election Today more aggressive + 2016 Polling Error assumes same polling errors

Safe Biden

Win Probability

Biden
Trump
Biden
100%
Polls: 90.1% +81.3%
Trump
0%
Polls: 8.8%
100%



Swing

 
+5.1%
From 2016 Results
+22%
From 2016 Polls
 





Polls

 
90.1%
Biden (+81.3%)
8.8%
Trump
 

Date Pollster Rating Voters Sample Size Republican Democrat Diff Diff (Adj) Weight
11/2/20 10/20-11/1 SurveyMonkey D- LV 457 Trump
5
Biden
94
+89% +84% 0.23
11/2/20 10/20-11/1 SurveyMonkey D- RV 457 Trump
6
Biden
92
+86% +81% -
11/1/20 10/18-10/30 SurveyMonkey D- LV 483 Trump
6
Biden
93
+87% +82% 0.19
11/1/20 10/18-10/30 SurveyMonkey D- RV 483 Trump
7
Biden
91
+84% +79% -
10/31/20 10/17-10/30 SurveyMonkey D- LV 501 Trump
6
Biden
93
+87% +82% 0.2
10/31/20 10/17-10/30 SurveyMonkey D- RV 501 Trump
7
Biden
91
+84% +79% -
10/30/20 10/16-10/29 SurveyMonkey D- LV 490 Trump
6
Biden
93
+87% +82% 0.18
10/30/20 10/16-10/29 SurveyMonkey D- RV 490 Trump
7
Biden
91
+84% +79% -
10/29/20 10/1-10/28 SurveyMonkey D- LV 969 Trump
9
Biden
89
+80% +75% 0.07
10/29/20 10/1-10/28 SurveyMonkey D- RV 969 Trump
10
Biden
88
+78% +73% -
10/28/20 9/30-10/27 SurveyMonkey D- LV 940 Trump
9
Biden
89
+80% +75% 0.05
10/28/20 9/30-10/27 SurveyMonkey D- RV 940 Trump
10
Biden
87
+77% +72% -
10/26/20 9/27-10/25 SurveyMonkey D- LV 914 Trump
10
Biden
88
+78% +73% 0.01
10/26/20 9/27-10/25 SurveyMonkey D- RV 914 Trump
11
Biden
86
+75% +70% -
10/25/20 9/26-10/24 SurveyMonkey D- LV 902 Trump
10
Biden
89
+79% +74% 0.05
10/25/20 9/26-10/24 SurveyMonkey D- RV 902 Trump
11
Biden
87
+76% +71% -
10/24/20 9/26-10/23 SurveyMonkey D- LV 888 Trump
9
Biden
89
+80% +75% -
10/24/20 9/26-10/23 SurveyMonkey D- RV 888 Trump
10
Biden
87
+77% +72% -
10/23/20 9/24-10/22 SurveyMonkey D- LV 874 Trump
9
Biden
89
+80% +75% -
10/23/20 9/24-10/22 SurveyMonkey D- RV 874 Trump
10
Biden
87
+77% +72% -
10/22/20 9/24-10/21 SurveyMonkey D- LV 825 Trump
9
Biden
88
+79% +74% -
10/22/20 9/24-10/21 SurveyMonkey D- RV 825 Trump
10
Biden
87
+77% +72% -
10/21/20 9/22-10/20 SurveyMonkey D- LV 796 Trump
10
Biden
88
+78% +73% -
10/21/20 9/22-10/20 SurveyMonkey D- RV 796 Trump
11
Biden
86
+75% +70% -
10/20/20 9/22-10/19 SurveyMonkey D- LV 765 Trump
10
Biden
88
+78% +73% -
10/20/20 9/22-10/19 SurveyMonkey D- RV 765 Trump
11
Biden
86
+75% +70% -
10/19/20 9/21-10/18 SurveyMonkey D- LV 727 Trump
10
Biden
88
+78% +73% -
10/19/20 9/21-10/18 SurveyMonkey D- RV 727 Trump
11
Biden
86
+75% +70% -
10/18/20 9/20-10/17 SurveyMonkey D- LV 718 Trump
9
Biden
88
+79% +74% -
10/18/20 9/20-10/17 SurveyMonkey D- RV 718 Trump
10
Biden
87
+77% +72% -
10/17/20 9/19-10/16 SurveyMonkey D- LV 704 Trump
9
Biden
88
+79% +74% -
10/17/20 9/19-10/16 SurveyMonkey D- RV 704 Trump
10
Biden
86
+76% +71% -
10/16/20 9/18-10/15 SurveyMonkey D- LV 674 Trump
10
Biden
88
+78% +73% -
10/16/20 9/18-10/15 SurveyMonkey D- RV 674 Trump
11
Biden
86
+75% +70% -
10/15/20 9/17-10/14 SurveyMonkey D- LV 612 Trump
10
Biden
88
+78% +73% -
10/15/20 9/17-10/14 SurveyMonkey D- RV 612 Trump
10
Biden
87
+77% +72% -
10/14/20 9/16-10/13 SurveyMonkey D- LV 565 Trump
10
Biden
88
+78% +73% -
10/14/20 9/16-10/13 SurveyMonkey D- RV 565 Trump
11
Biden
86
+75% +70% -
10/13/20 9/14-10/12 SurveyMonkey D- LV 543 Trump
10
Biden
87
+77% +72% -
10/13/20 9/14-10/12 SurveyMonkey D- RV 543 Trump
11
Biden
85
+74% +69% -
10/3/20 6/8-6/30 SurveyMonkey D- RV 151 Trump
9.6
Biden
87
+77.5% +72.5% -
10/3/20 6/8-6/30 SurveyMonkey D- LV 151 Trump
10.5
Biden
87
+76.4% +71.4% -
10/3/20 7/1-7/31 SurveyMonkey D- RV 290 Trump
8
Biden
89.1
+81.1% +76.1% -
10/3/20 7/1-7/31 SurveyMonkey D- LV 290 Trump
8
Biden
90.5
+82.5% +77.5% -
10/3/20 8/1-8/31 SurveyMonkey D- RV 252 Trump
16.5
Biden
81.4
+64.9% +59.9% -
10/3/20 8/1-8/31 SurveyMonkey D- LV 252 Trump
16
Biden
83
+67% +62% -
10/2/20 9/1-9/30 SurveyMonkey D- RV 343 Trump
13.6
Biden
84.4
+70.8% +65.8% -
10/2/20 9/1-9/30 SurveyMonkey D- LV 343 Trump
12
Biden
86.3
+74.3% +69.3% -


Past Results

Year Candidates Republican Democrat Diff
2016 Trump v Clinton 4.1 90.5 +86.4%
2012 Romney v Obama 7.3 90.9 +83.6%
2008 McCain v Obama 6.5 92.5 +85.9%
2004 Bush v Kerry 9.3 89.2 +79.8%
2000 Bush v Gore 9 85.2 +76.2%




Updates

Last Updated: 11/3 6:52 AM EST
10/31
District of Columbia polls jumped 1.8% toward Biden (was D+77%, now D+78.8%)
10/30
District of Columbia polls jumped 2.5% toward Biden (was D+74.5%, now D+77%)
10/14
District of Columbia polls jumped 2.1% toward Biden (was D+69%, now D+71.1%)