District of Columbia

Live Election Night Forecast

Last Updated: 6/29 12:42 PM EDT

Winner

Biden

Election Night Forecast Changes

Here you can see how the forecast has in District of Columbia changed throughout the evening (and perhaps coming days?), all times are EST.

District of Columbia Pre-Election Forecast

Safe Biden

Win Probability
(with same polling error as 2016)

This version of the model assumes the same polling error (polls on election day vs actual result) as 2016.
In District of Columbia the polls are shifted 27.1% more Democratic.

Biden

100%

Polls: 103% +107.3%

Trump

Polls: -4.3%

100%

Swing

+20.9%

From 2016 Results

+20.8%

From 2016 Polls

Polls

103%

Biden (+107.3%)

-4.3%

Trump

Updates

Last Updated: 11/3 8:47 PM EDT

10/31

District of Columbia polls jumped 1.8% toward Biden (was D+104.2%, now D+106%)

10/30

District of Columbia polls jumped 2.5% toward Biden (was D+101.7%, now D+104.2%)

10/14

District of Columbia polls jumped 2.1% toward Biden (was D+96.2%, now D+98.3%)