Florida

If Election Today more aggressive + 2016 Polling Error assumes same polling errors

Lean Biden

Win Probability

Biden
Trump
Biden
65.9%
Polls: 48.8% +2%
Trump
34.1%
Polls: 46.8%
65.9%
34.1%



Swing

 
+3.2%
From 2016 Results
+2.1%
From 2016 Polls
 



Testing

Standard Deviation: 2.167 Testing Range: +/- 5.02%




Tipping Point



8.9%
of the time





Polls

 
48.8%
Biden (+2%)
46.8%
Trump
 

Date Pollster Rating Voters Sample Size Republican Democrat Diff Diff (Adj) Weight
10/27/20 10/23-10/25 Susquehanna Polling & Research Inc. C LV 400 Trump
48.5
Biden
44
+4.5% +5.5% 0.87
10/27/20 10/24-10/25 Florida Atlantic University B/C LV 937 Trump
48.1
Biden
50.2
+2% +1.6% 1.04
10/26/20 9/27-10/25 SurveyMonkey D- LV 14,053 Trump
49
Biden
48
+1% +6% -
10/26/20 9/27-10/25 SurveyMonkey D- RV 14,053 Trump
48
Biden
50
+2% +3% -
10/26/20 10/20-10/22 RMG Research B/C LV 800 Trump
48
Biden
50
+2% +2% 0.89
10/25/20 9/27-10/24 SurveyMonkey D- LV 14,042 Trump
49
Biden
48
+1% +6% -
10/25/20 9/27-10/24 SurveyMonkey D- RV 14,042 Trump
48
Biden
50
+2% +3% -
10/25/20 10/20-10/23 YouGov B LV 1,228 Trump
48
Biden
50
+2% +1.6% 1
10/24/20 9/26-10/23 SurveyMonkey D- LV 14,035 Trump
49
Biden
48
+1% +6% -
10/24/20 9/26-10/23 SurveyMonkey D- RV 14,035 Trump
48
Biden
49
+1% +4% -
10/23/20 9/25-10/22 SurveyMonkey D- LV 14,080 Trump
50
Biden
48
+2% +7% -
10/23/20 9/25-10/22 SurveyMonkey D- RV 14,080 Trump
48
Biden
49
+1% +4% -
10/23/20 10/20-10/21 Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research C+ LV 800 Trump
50
Biden
46
+4% +2.4% 0.83
10/23/20 10/21-10/22 St. Pete Polls C LV 2,527 Trump
47.4
Biden
48.9
+1.5% +1.9% 0.95
10/22/20 9/24-10/21 SurveyMonkey D- LV 14,142 Trump
50
Biden
48
+2% +7% -
10/22/20 9/24-10/21 SurveyMonkey D- RV 14,142 Trump
48
Biden
49
+1% +4% -
10/22/20 10/11-10/20 Morning Consult B/C LV 4,685 Trump
45
Biden
52
+7% +6.8% 0.77
10/21/20 10/14-10/20 Ipsos B- LV 662 Trump
46
Biden
51
+5% +4.6% 0.27
10/21/20 10/14-10/20 Ipsos B- LV 662 Trump
46
Biden
50
+4% +3.6% 0.27
10/21/20 9/22-10/20 SurveyMonkey D- LV 14,175 Trump
49
Biden
49
+0% +5% -
10/21/20 9/22-10/20 SurveyMonkey D- RV 14,175 Trump
48
Biden
50
+2% +3% -
10/21/20 10/15-10/20 CNN/SSRS B/C RV 906 Trump
46
Biden
48
+2% +0.8% -
10/21/20 10/15-10/20 CNN/SSRS B/C LV 847 Trump
46
Biden
50
+4% +2.8% 0.74
10/21/20 10/17-10/20 Civiqs B/C LV 863 Trump
47
Biden
51
+4% +4% 0.78
10/20/20 10/16-10/19 Change Research C- LV 547 Trump
45
Biden
50
+5% +3.8% 0.6
10/20/20 9/22-10/19 SurveyMonkey D- LV 14,196 Trump
49
Biden
49
+0% +5% -
10/20/20 9/22-10/19 SurveyMonkey D- RV 14,196 Trump
48
Biden
50
+2% +3% -
10/20/20 10/12-10/16 University of North Florida A/B LV 863 Trump
47
Biden
48
+1% +0.2% 0.73
10/19/20 9/20-10/18 SurveyMonkey D- LV 14,184 Trump
49
Biden
49
+0% +5% -
10/19/20 9/20-10/18 SurveyMonkey D- RV 14,184 Trump
48
Biden
50
+2% +3% -
10/18/20 9/20-10/17 SurveyMonkey D- LV 14,126 Trump
49
Biden
49
+0% +5% -
10/18/20 9/20-10/17 SurveyMonkey D- RV 14,126 Trump
48
Biden
50
+2% +3% -
10/17/20 9/18-10/16 SurveyMonkey D- LV 14,081 Trump
48
Biden
50
+2% +3% -
10/17/20 9/18-10/16 SurveyMonkey D- RV 14,081 Trump
47
Biden
50
+3% +2% -
10/16/20 9/18-10/15 SurveyMonkey D- LV 13,616 Trump
48
Biden
49
+1% +4% -
10/16/20 9/18-10/15 SurveyMonkey D- RV 13,616 Trump
47
Biden
50
+3% +2% -
10/16/20 10/12-10/15 HarrisX C LV 965 Trump
48
Biden
48
+0% +1.4% 0.54
10/16/20 10/8-10/12 Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy B+ LV 625 Trump
45
Biden
48
+3% +3.6% 0.58
10/15/20 9/17-10/14 SurveyMonkey D- LV 13,016 Trump
48
Biden
49
+1% +4% -
10/15/20 9/17-10/14 SurveyMonkey D- RV 13,016 Trump
47
Biden
50
+3% +2% -
10/14/20 10/7-10/12 Clearview Research LV 550 Trump
40
Biden
47
+7% +7% 0.13
10/14/20 9/16-10/13 SurveyMonkey D- LV 12,736 Trump
49
Biden
49
+0% +5% -
10/14/20 9/16-10/13 SurveyMonkey D- RV 12,736 Trump
47
Biden
50
+3% +2% -
10/14/20 10/7-10/14 Ipsos B- LV 653 Trump
47
Biden
50
+3% +2.6% 0.15
10/14/20 10/7-10/14 Ipsos B- LV 653 Trump
47
Biden
49
+2% +1.6% 0.15
10/14/20 10/11-10/12 St. Pete Polls C LV 2,215 Trump
47.2
Biden
49.2
+2% +2.4% 0.49
10/14/20 10/11-10/13 Trafalgar Group C- LV 1,051 Trump
48.4
Biden
46.1
+2.3% +1.3% 0.44
10/13/20 9/15-10/12 SurveyMonkey D- LV 12,604 Trump
49
Biden
49
+0% +5% -
10/13/20 9/15-10/12 SurveyMonkey D- RV 12,604 Trump
48
Biden
50
+2% +3% -
10/13/20 10/4-10/8 RMG Research B/C LV 800 Trump
46
Biden
48
+2% +2% 0.37
10/13/20 10/9-10/10 Florida Atlantic University B/C LV 644 Trump
47
Biden
51.2
+4.2% +3.8% 0.46
10/13/20 10/2-10/11 Morning Consult B/C LV 4,785 Trump
46
Biden
51
+5% +4.8% 0.45
10/12/20 10/10-10/12 Emerson College A- LV 690 Trump
48.4
Biden
50.6
+2.2% +1.8% 0.66
10/12/20 9/27-10/2 Saint Leo University C/D RV 500 Trump
43.4
Biden
49.2
+5.8% +4% -
10/9/20 10/4-10/6 Redfield & Wilton Strategies LV 998 Trump
44
Biden
49
+5% +5% -
10/8/20 10/6-10/7 InsiderAdvantage B- LV 400 Trump
46
Biden
43
+3% +4.2% 0.38
10/7/20 9/27-10/2 Saint Leo University C/D LV 489 Trump
43.9
Biden
49.9
+6% +4.2% -
10/7/20 9/29-10/7 Ipsos B- LV 678 Trump
45
Biden
49
+4% +3.6% 0.32
10/7/20 10/1-10/5 Quinnipiac University B+ LV 1,256 Trump
40
Biden
51
+11% +10.8% 0.39
10/7/20 9/23-9/29 Cherry Communications B/C LV 604 Trump
44
Biden
49
+5% +5.6% 0.16
10/6/20 10/2-10/4 Change Research C- LV 560 Trump
46
Biden
50
+4% +2.8% 0.18
10/6/20 10/1-10/4 Suffolk University A LV 500 Trump
45
Biden
45
+0% +0.6% 0.45
10/6/20 10/1-10/4 University of North Florida A/B LV 3,142 Trump
45
Biden
51
+6% +5.2% 0.43
10/3/20 9/30-10/1 Siena College/The New York Times Upshot A+ LV 710 Trump
42
Biden
47
+5% +5.4% 0.47
10/3/20 6/8-6/30 SurveyMonkey D- RV 5,663 Trump
48.8
Biden
48.4
+0.4% +5.4% -
10/3/20 6/8-6/30 SurveyMonkey D- LV 5,663 Trump
51.1
Biden
46.9
+4.2% +9.2% -
10/3/20 7/1-7/31 SurveyMonkey D- RV 13,945 Trump
46
Biden
50.8
+4.8% +0.2% -
10/3/20 7/1-7/31 SurveyMonkey D- LV 13,945 Trump
48
Biden
49.3
+1.3% +3.7% -
10/3/20 8/1-8/31 SurveyMonkey D- RV 12,286 Trump
48.1
Biden
49.1
+1% +4% -
10/3/20 8/1-8/31 SurveyMonkey D- LV 12,286 Trump
50
Biden
48
+2% +7% -
10/2/20 9/1-9/30 SurveyMonkey D- RV 12,962 Trump
45.6
Biden
51.3
+5.7% +0.7% -
10/2/20 9/1-9/30 SurveyMonkey D- LV 12,962 Trump
47.2
Biden
50.5
+3.3% +1.7% -
10/2/20 9/23-9/25 Redfield & Wilton Strategies LV 1,073 Trump
43
Biden
48
+5% +5% -
9/29/20 9/23-9/26 Susquehanna Polling & Research Inc. C LV 500 Trump
42
Biden
46
+4% +3% -
9/25/20 9/17-9/19 Hart Research Associates B/C LV 400 Trump
45
Biden
51
+6% +4.6% -
9/25/20 9/15-9/22 Data for Progress B- LV 620 Trump
43
Biden
46
+3% +3% 0.06
9/23/20 9/11-9/16 Ipsos B- LV 586 Trump
47
Biden
47
+0% +0.4% -
9/23/20 9/18-9/20 Change Research C- LV 702 Trump
46
Biden
49
+3% +1.8% -
9/23/20 9/21-9/22 St. Pete Polls C LV 2,906 Trump
46.5
Biden
49.7
+3.2% +3.6% -
9/23/20 9/15-9/20 ABC News/The Washington Post A+ LV 613 Trump
51
Biden
47
+4% +4.6% 0.24
9/23/20 9/15-9/20 ABC News/The Washington Post A+ RV 765 Trump
47
Biden
48
+1% +0.4% -
9/21/20 8/11-8/15 The Tyson Group B/C LV 750 Trump
44
Biden
46
+2% +2% -
9/20/20 9/15-9/18 YouGov B LV 1,205 Trump
46
Biden
48
+2% +1.6% 0.08
9/18/20 9/12-9/14 Redfield & Wilton Strategies LV 1,158 Trump
44
Biden
47
+3% +3% -
9/17/20 8/29-9/13 Kaiser Family Foundation RV 1,009 Trump
42
Biden
43
+1% +1% -
9/15/20 9/10-9/13 Monmouth University A+ LV 428 Trump
46
Biden
49
+3% +1.6% -
9/15/20 9/10-9/13 Monmouth University A+ LV 428 Trump
45
Biden
50
+5% +3.6% -
9/15/20 9/10-9/13 Monmouth University A+ RV 428 Trump
45
Biden
50
+5% +3.6% -
9/15/20 9/11-9/12 Florida Atlantic University B/C LV 631 Trump
50
Biden
49.8
+0.1% +0.5% -
9/10/20 8/30-9/8 Benenson Strategy Group/GS Strategy Group LV 1,600 Trump
46
Biden
48
+2% +2% -
9/9/20 9/7-9/8 St. Pete Polls C LV 2,689 Trump
47.1
Biden
49.6
+2.5% +2.9% -
9/9/20 8/29-9/7 Morning Consult B/C LV 3,914 Trump
45
Biden
50
+5% +4.8% -
9/9/20 9/4-9/6 Change Research C- LV 1,144 Trump
46
Biden
49
+3% +1.8% -
9/8/20 8/30-9/3 Redfield & Wilton Strategies LV 1,093 Trump
44
Biden
47
+3% +3% -
9/8/20 8/26-9/3 GQR Research B LV 800 Trump
46
Biden
51
+5% +2.8% -
9/8/20 8/31-9/6 Marist College A+ LV 766 Trump
48
Biden
48
+0% +0.4% 0.11
9/8/20 8/31-9/6 Marist College A+ RV 1,047 Trump
48
Biden
47
+1% +0.6% -
9/4/20 9/1-9/3 Trafalgar Group C- LV 1,022 Trump
48.7
Biden
45.6
+3.1% +2.1% -
9/3/20 8/28-9/1 Quinnipiac University B+ LV 1,235 Trump
45
Biden
48
+3% +2.8% -
9/2/20 8/21-8/26 Opinium LV 684 Trump
43.1
Biden
50.4
+7.3% +7.3% -
9/1/20 8/21-8/30 Morning Consult B/C LV 3,790 Trump
47
Biden
49
+2% +1.8% -
9/1/20 8/7-8/16 Morning Consult B/C LV 3,484 Trump
45
Biden
50
+5% +4.8% -
8/26/20 8/21-8/23 Change Research C- LV 1,262 Trump
46
Biden
49
+3% +1.8% -
8/25/20 8/21-8/22 Public Policy Polling B V 671 Trump
44
Biden
48
+4% +3.6% -
8/21/20 8/16-8/16 Redfield & Wilton Strategies LV 1,280 Trump
41
Biden
49
+8% +8% -
8/18/20 8/2-8/4 OnMessage Inc. B/C LV 400 Trump
49
Biden
49
+0% +1.4% -
8/12/20 8/7-8/9 Change Research C- LV 469 Trump
44
Biden
50
+6% +4.8% -
8/5/20 7/21-7/23 Zogby Analytics C+ LV 811 Trump
43
Biden
43
+0% +0.6% -
7/30/20 7/19-7/21 Redfield & Wilton Strategies LV 1,121 Trump
41
Biden
48
+7% +7% -
7/30/20 7/20-7/23 Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy B+ LV 625 Trump
46
Biden
50
+4% +4.6% -
7/29/20 7/24-7/26 Change Research C- LV 685 Trump
45
Biden
48
+3% +1.8% -
7/28/20 5/17-5/26 Morning Consult B/C LV 3,593 Trump
48
Biden
47
+1% +1.2% -
7/28/20 7/17-7/26 Morning Consult B/C LV 3,760 Trump
46
Biden
49
+3% +2.8% -
7/26/20 7/18-7/24 CNN/SSRS B/C RV 880 Trump
46
Biden
51
+5% +3.8% -
7/23/20 7/16-7/20 Quinnipiac University B+ RV 924 Trump
38
Biden
51
+13% +12.8% -
7/23/20 7/13-7/14 St. Pete Polls C LV 3,018 Trump
44.4
Biden
50.4
+6% +6.4% -
7/15/20 7/10-7/12 Change Research C- LV 1,128 Trump
43
Biden
50
+7% +5.8% -
7/14/20 7/13-7/13 Gravis Marketing C LV 529 Trump
43
Biden
53
+10% +9% -
7/12/20 7/7-7/10 YouGov B LV 1,206 Trump
42
Biden
48
+6% +5.6% -
7/3/20 6/29-7/2 Trafalgar Group C- LV 1,072 Trump
45.9
Biden
45.9
+0% +1% -
7/1/20 6/26-6/28 Change Research C- LV 951 Trump
45
Biden
50
+5% +3.8% -
6/25/20 6/20-6/23 Fox News A- RV 1,010 Trump
40
Biden
49
+9% +7.6% -
6/25/20 6/14-6/15 Redfield & Wilton Strategies LV 1,079 Trump
41
Biden
45
+4% +4% -
6/25/20 6/8-6/18 Siena College/The New York Times Upshot A+ RV 651 Trump
41
Biden
47
+6% +6.4% -
6/17/20 6/12-6/14 Change Research C- LV 713 Trump
43
Biden
50
+7% +5.8% -
6/16/20 6/9-6/11 TIPP A/B LV 875 Trump
40
Biden
51
+11% +11.8% -
6/16/20 6/9-6/11 TIPP A/B RV 910 Trump
40
Biden
50
+10% +10.8% -
6/11/20 5/18-5/30 Cygnal A/B LV 881 Trump
43.8
Biden
47
+3.2% +2.2% -
6/3/20 5/29-5/31 Change Research C- LV 1,186 Trump
45
Biden
48
+3% +1.8% -
5/28/20 5/26-5/27 St. Pete Polls C RV 4,763 Trump
46.7
Biden
47.5
+0.8% +1.2% -
5/21/20 5/10-5/14 Redfield & Wilton Strategies LV 1,014 Trump
43
Biden
45
+2% +2% -
5/19/20 5/14-5/17 Point Blank Political C/D LV 2,149 Trump
47.7
Biden
52.3
+4.6% +4.6% -
5/19/20 5/14-5/17 Point Blank Political C/D LV 2,149 Trump
43.9
Biden
44.5
+0.6% +0.6% -
5/15/20 5/8-5/12 Florida Atlantic University B/C RV 928 Trump
47.4
Biden
52.7
+5.3% +4.9% -
4/23/20 4/18-4/21 Fox News A- RV 1,004 Trump
43
Biden
46
+3% +1.6% -
4/22/20 4/16-4/20 Quinnipiac University B+ RV 1,385 Trump
42
Biden
46
+4% +3.8% -
4/18/20 4/16-4/17 St. Pete Polls C RV 5,659 Trump
47.5
Biden
48.3
+0.8% +1.2% -
4/6/20 3/31-4/4 University of North Florida A/B RV 3,244 Trump
40
Biden
46
+6% +5.2% -
3/16/20 3/14-3/16 AtlasIntel B/C RV 1,100 Trump
44.9
Biden
45.4
+0.5% +0.5% -
3/16/20 3/6-3/12 Latino Decisions B/C RV 1,071 Trump
48
Biden
45
+3% +3% -
3/10/20 3/5-3/7 Florida Atlantic University B/C RV 1,216 Trump
50.6
Biden
49.4
+1.2% +1.6% -
3/2/20 2/17-2/22 Saint Leo University C/D LV 900 Trump
40.3
Biden
51.2
+10.9% +9.1% -
2/19/20 2/10-2/18 University of North Florida A/B RV 668 Trump
48
Biden
49
+1% +0.2% -
1/21/20 1/3-1/12 Cherry Communications B/C LV 608 Trump
49
Biden
45
+4% +3.4% -
1/15/20 1/9-1/12 Florida Atlantic University B/C RV 1,285 Trump
48.6
Biden
51.4
+2.8% +2.4% -
12/31/19 12/11-12/16 Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy B+ RV 625 Trump
45
Biden
47
+2% +2.6% -
11/4/19 10/13-10/26 Siena College/The New York Times Upshot A+ LV 650 Trump
44.5
Biden
46
+1.5% +1.9% -
11/4/19 10/13-10/26 Siena College/The New York Times Upshot A+ RV 650 Trump
44.2
Biden
45.7
+1.5% +1.9% -
10/22/19 10/14-10/20 University of North Florida A/B RV 644 Trump
43
Biden
48
+5% +4.2% -
9/18/19 9/12-9/15 Florida Atlantic University B/C RV 934 Trump
50.5
Biden
49.5
+1% +1.4% -
6/19/19 6/15-6/16 St. Pete Polls C LV 3,095 Trump
46.8
Biden
47.3
+0.5% +0.9% -
6/18/19 6/12-6/17 Quinnipiac University B+ RV 1,279 Trump
41
Biden
50
+9% +8.8% -
5/22/19 5/16-5/19 Florida Atlantic University B/C RV 1,007 Trump
50.2
Biden
49.8
+0.4% +0.8% -
5/11/19 4/27-4/30 WPA Intelligence B/C LV 200 Trump
48
Biden
44
+4% +3.2% -


Past Results

Year Candidates Republican Democrat Diff
2016 Trump v Clinton 49 47.8 +1.2%
2012 Romney v Obama 49.1 50 +0.9%
2008 McCain v Obama 48.2 51 +2.8%
2004 Bush v Kerry 52.1 47.1 +5%
2000 Bush v Gore 48.9 48.8 +0%




Updates

Last Updated: 10/28 9:31 AM EDT
10/7
Florida changed from Toss Up to Lean Biden
9/4
Florida changed from Lean Biden to Toss Up
9/1
Florida changed from Toss Up to Lean Biden
8/31
Florida changed from Lean Biden to Toss Up
8/30
Florida changed from Toss Up to Lean Biden