Georgia

If Election Today more aggressive + 2016 Polling Error assumes same polling errors

Toss Up

Win Probability

Biden
Trump
Biden
46.5%
Polls: 47.6% +0.7%
Trump
53.5%
Polls: 46.9%
46.5%
53.5%



Swing

 
+5.9%
From 2016 Results
+5.9%
From 2016 Polls
 



Testing

Standard Deviation: 2.394 Testing Range: +/- 5.58%




Tipping Point



3%
of the time





Polls

 
47.6%
Biden (+0.7%)
46.9%
Trump
 

Date Pollster Rating Voters Sample Size Republican Democrat Diff Diff (Adj) Weight
10/27/20 10/23-10/26 Civiqs B/C LV 1,041 Trump
46
Biden
51
+5% +5% 1.05
10/26/20 9/28-10/25 SurveyMonkey D- LV 6,564 Trump
49
Biden
50
+1% +4% -
10/26/20 9/28-10/25 SurveyMonkey D- RV 6,564 Trump
46
Biden
52
+6% +1% -
10/26/20 10/14-10/23 University of Georgia B/C LV 1,145 Trump
46.2
Biden
46.5
+0.3% +0.7% 0.8
10/25/20 9/26-10/24 SurveyMonkey D- LV 6,530 Trump
49
Biden
50
+1% +4% -
10/25/20 9/26-10/24 SurveyMonkey D- RV 6,530 Trump
46
Biden
52
+6% +1% -
10/25/20 10/20-10/23 YouGov B LV 1,090 Trump
49
Biden
49
+0% +0.4% 0.99
10/24/20 9/26-10/23 SurveyMonkey D- LV 6,507 Trump
49
Biden
50
+1% +4% -
10/24/20 9/26-10/23 SurveyMonkey D- RV 6,507 Trump
46
Biden
52
+6% +1% -
10/23/20 9/24-10/22 SurveyMonkey D- LV 6,533 Trump
49
Biden
50
+1% +4% -
10/23/20 9/24-10/22 SurveyMonkey D- RV 6,533 Trump
46
Biden
52
+6% +1% -
10/23/20 10/21-10/21 Landmark Communications B LV 500 Trump
49
Biden
45
+4% +5.6% 0.89
10/23/20 10/12-10/15 Opinion Insight A/B LV 800 Trump
45
Biden
49
+4% +4.6% 0.71
10/23/20 8/30-9/2 Opinion Insight A/B LV 800 Trump
46
Biden
46
+0% +0.6% -
10/22/20 9/24-10/21 SurveyMonkey D- LV 6,420 Trump
49
Biden
49
+0% +5% -
10/22/20 9/24-10/21 SurveyMonkey D- RV 6,420 Trump
46
Biden
52
+6% +1% -
10/22/20 10/11-10/20 Morning Consult B/C LV 1,672 Trump
48
Biden
48
+0% +0.2% 0.7
10/21/20 10/11-10/14 Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group B/C LV 600 Trump
44
Biden
51
+7% +5.6% 0.57
10/21/20 9/23-10/20 SurveyMonkey D- LV 6,145 Trump
49
Biden
50
+1% +4% -
10/21/20 9/23-10/20 SurveyMonkey D- RV 6,145 Trump
46
Biden
52
+6% +1% -
10/20/20 9/22-10/19 SurveyMonkey D- LV 5,979 Trump
49
Biden
49
+0% +5% -
10/20/20 9/22-10/19 SurveyMonkey D- RV 5,979 Trump
46
Biden
52
+6% +1% -
10/20/20 10/13-10/19 Siena College/The New York Times Upshot A+ LV 759 Trump
45
Biden
45
+0% +0.4% 0.91
10/19/20 10/17-10/19 Emerson College A- LV 506 Trump
48.4
Biden
47
+1.4% +1.8% 0.88
10/19/20 9/21-10/18 SurveyMonkey D- LV 5,795 Trump
48
Biden
50
+2% +3% -
10/19/20 9/21-10/18 SurveyMonkey D- RV 5,795 Trump
46
Biden
52
+6% +1% -
10/18/20 9/20-10/17 SurveyMonkey D- LV 5,725 Trump
49
Biden
50
+1% +4% -
10/18/20 9/20-10/17 SurveyMonkey D- RV 5,725 Trump
46
Biden
52
+6% +1% -
10/17/20 9/19-10/16 SurveyMonkey D- LV 5,617 Trump
49
Biden
49
+0% +5% -
10/17/20 9/19-10/16 SurveyMonkey D- RV 5,617 Trump
46
Biden
51
+5% +0% -
10/16/20 9/18-10/15 SurveyMonkey D- LV 5,376 Trump
49
Biden
50
+1% +4% -
10/16/20 9/18-10/15 SurveyMonkey D- RV 5,376 Trump
46
Biden
52
+6% +1% -
10/15/20 9/17-10/14 SurveyMonkey D- LV 5,029 Trump
49
Biden
49
+0% +5% -
10/15/20 9/17-10/14 SurveyMonkey D- RV 5,029 Trump
46
Biden
51
+5% +0% -
10/14/20 9/15-10/13 SurveyMonkey D- LV 4,716 Trump
49
Biden
50
+1% +4% -
10/14/20 9/15-10/13 SurveyMonkey D- RV 4,716 Trump
46
Biden
52
+6% +1% -
10/14/20 10/8-10/11 Data for Progress B- LV 782 Trump
46
Biden
46
+0% +0% 0.51
10/14/20 10/8-10/12 Quinnipiac University B+ LV 1,040 Trump
44
Biden
51
+7% +6.8% 0.61
10/14/20 10/8-10/12 SurveyUSA A LV 677 Trump
46
Biden
48
+2% +1.8% 0.67
10/13/20 9/15-10/12 SurveyMonkey D- LV 4,544 Trump
49
Biden
49
+0% +5% -
10/13/20 9/15-10/12 SurveyMonkey D- RV 4,544 Trump
46
Biden
51
+5% +0% -
10/13/20 10/2-10/11 Morning Consult B/C LV 1,837 Trump
49
Biden
47
+2% +2.2% 0.43
10/10/20 10/8-10/9 Public Policy Polling B V 528 Trump
46
Biden
47
+1% +0.6% 0.53
10/9/20 10/7-10/7 Landmark Communications B LV 600 Trump
48.6
Biden
46.8
+1.8% +3.4% 0.48
10/9/20 9/27-10/6 University of Georgia B/C LV 1,106 Trump
47.5
Biden
46.4
+1.1% +0.7% 0.31
10/3/20 6/8-6/30 SurveyMonkey D- RV 2,059 Trump
45.3
Biden
51.6
+6.3% +1.3% -
10/3/20 6/8-6/30 SurveyMonkey D- LV 2,059 Trump
49.2
Biden
48.5
+0.6% +5.6% -
10/3/20 7/1-7/31 SurveyMonkey D- RV 3,745 Trump
49
Biden
48.5
+0.5% +5.5% -
10/3/20 7/1-7/31 SurveyMonkey D- LV 3,745 Trump
53
Biden
45.2
+7.8% +12.8% -
10/3/20 8/1-8/31 SurveyMonkey D- RV 2,772 Trump
45.9
Biden
51.8
+5.9% +0.9% -
10/3/20 8/1-8/31 SurveyMonkey D- LV 2,772 Trump
49
Biden
49
+0% +5% -
10/2/20 9/1-9/30 SurveyMonkey D- RV 3,468 Trump
44.8
Biden
51.7
+6.9% +1.9% -
10/2/20 9/1-9/30 SurveyMonkey D- LV 3,468 Trump
48.4
Biden
49.1
+0.6% +4.4% -
10/2/20 9/23-9/26 Redfield & Wilton Strategies LV 789 Trump
44
Biden
45
+1% +1% -
10/2/20 9/24-9/27 Hart Research Associates B/C LV 400 Trump
47
Biden
50
+3% +1.6% 0.18
10/1/20 9/30-9/30 Landmark Communications B LV 500 Trump
44.9
Biden
46.6
+1.7% +0.1% 0.33
9/29/20 9/26-9/29 Civiqs B/C LV 969 Trump
47
Biden
50
+3% +3% 0.23
9/29/20 9/23-9/27 Quinnipiac University B+ LV 1,125 Trump
47
Biden
50
+3% +2.8% 0.28
9/27/20 9/22-9/25 YouGov B LV 1,164 Trump
47
Biden
46
+1% +1.4% 0.22
9/24/20 9/14-9/19 Data for Progress B- LV 800 Trump
46
Biden
46
+0% +0% -
9/24/20 9/14-9/19 Data for Progress B- LV 800 Trump
45
Biden
45
+0% +0% -
9/24/20 9/16-9/21 Siena College/The New York Times Upshot A+ LV 523 Trump
45
Biden
45
+0% +0.4% 0.29
9/23/20 9/17-9/21 Monmouth University A+ LV 402 Trump
50
Biden
45
+5% +6.4% 0.08
9/23/20 9/17-9/21 Monmouth University A+ LV 402 Trump
48
Biden
46
+2% +3.4% 0.08
9/23/20 9/17-9/21 Monmouth University A+ RV 402 Trump
47
Biden
46
+1% +2.4% -
9/22/20 9/11-9/20 University of Georgia B/C LV 1,150 Trump
47.3
Biden
47
+0.3% +0.1% 0.07
9/21/20 9/14-9/16 GBAO B/C LV 600 Trump
46
Biden
49
+3% +3% -
9/20/20 9/12-9/16 Redfield & Wilton Strategies LV 800 Trump
46
Biden
45
+1% +1% -
9/15/20 8/20-8/30 HarrisX C RV 1,616 Trump
46
Biden
52.2
+6.2% +7.6% -
9/10/20 8/30-9/5 Fabrizio Ward/Hart Research Associates LV 800 Trump
46
Biden
47
+1% +1% -
9/9/20 8/29-9/7 Morning Consult B/C LV 1,486 Trump
48
Biden
46
+2% +2.2% -
9/1/20 8/29-8/31 Landmark Communications B LV 500 Trump
47.9
Biden
40.5
+7.4% +9% -
9/1/20 8/21-8/30 Morning Consult B/C LV 1,392 Trump
46
Biden
49
+3% +2.8% -
9/1/20 8/7-8/16 Morning Consult B/C LV 1,265 Trump
47
Biden
46
+1% +1.2% -
8/31/20 8/24-8/25 Public Policy Polling B V 782 Trump
46
Biden
47
+1% +0.6% -
8/17/20 8/14-8/15 Landmark Communications B LV 500 Trump
47.4
Biden
44.5
+2.9% +4.5% -
8/11/20 8/6-8/8 SurveyUSA A LV 623 Trump
44
Biden
46
+2% +1.8% -
8/10/20 7/23-7/31 HIT Strategies RV 400 Trump
40
Biden
44
+4% +4% -
8/2/20 7/28-7/31 YouGov B LV 1,109 Trump
45
Biden
46
+1% +0.6% -
7/29/20 7/23-7/27 Monmouth University A+ LV 402 Trump
49
Biden
46
+3% +4.4% -
7/29/20 7/23-7/27 Monmouth University A+ LV 402 Trump
48
Biden
47
+1% +2.4% -
7/29/20 7/23-7/27 Monmouth University A+ RV 402 Trump
47
Biden
47
+0% +1.4% -
7/28/20 5/17-5/26 Morning Consult B/C LV 1,396 Trump
49
Biden
47
+2% +2.2% -
7/28/20 7/23-7/24 Public Policy Polling B V 722 Trump
45
Biden
46
+1% +0.6% -
7/28/20 7/17-7/26 Morning Consult B/C LV 1,337 Trump
46
Biden
47
+1% +0.8% -
7/22/20 7/11-7/16 Spry Strategies B/C LV 701 Trump
48.8
Biden
45.7
+3.1% +2.6% -
7/22/20 7/9-7/15 Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group B/C LV 800 Trump
43
Biden
47
+4% +2.6% -
7/20/20 7/15-7/18 Trafalgar Group C- LV 1,023 Trump
49.8
Biden
43.3
+6.5% +5.5% -
7/12/20 7/2-7/2 Gravis Marketing C LV 513 Trump
48
Biden
45
+3% +4% -
6/29/20 6/25-6/26 Public Policy Polling B V 734 Trump
45
Biden
49
+4% +3.6% -
6/25/20 6/20-6/23 Fox News A- RV 1,013 Trump
45
Biden
47
+2% +0.6% -
6/16/20 6/12-6/13 Public Policy Polling B V 661 Trump
46
Biden
48
+2% +1.6% -
6/11/20 5/21-5/27 TargetSmart B/C RV 321 Trump
44
Biden
40
+4% +4.6% -
5/19/20 5/16-5/18 Civiqs B/C RV 1,339 Trump
47
Biden
48
+1% +1% -
5/15/20 5/11-5/13 BK Strategies B/C LV 700 Trump
48
Biden
46
+2% +2.4% -
5/13/20 5/4-5/7 Public Opinion Strategies B+ LV 500 Trump
46
Biden
47
+1% +2.6% -
5/1/20 4/25-4/27 Cygnal A/B LV 591 Trump
45.1
Biden
44
+1.1% +2.1% -
4/3/20 3/31-4/1 Battleground Connect LV 1,035 Trump
48
Biden
46
+2% +2% -
3/4/20 2/24-3/2 University of Georgia B/C LV 1,117 Trump
51.4
Biden
43.1
+8.3% +7.9% -
1/9/20 12/19-12/23 Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy B+ RV 625 Trump
51
Biden
44
+7% +6.4% -
11/19/19 11/15-11/18 SurveyUSA A LV 1,303 Trump
43
Biden
47
+4% +3.8% -
11/19/19 11/4-11/10 Climate Nexus LV 688 Trump
47
Biden
48
+1% +1% -
11/13/19 10/28-10/30 Zogby Analytics C+ LV 550 Trump
44
Biden
46
+2% +2.6% -
11/13/19 10/30-11/8 University of Georgia B/C RV 1,028 Trump
42.5
Biden
51.1
+8.6% +9% -


Past Results

Year Candidates Republican Democrat Diff
2016 Trump v Clinton 50.8 45.6 +5.1%
2012 Romney v Obama 53.3 45.5 +7.8%
2008 McCain v Obama 52.2 47 +5.2%
2004 Bush v Kerry 58 41.4 +16.6%
2000 Bush v Gore 54.7 43 +11.7%




Updates

Last Updated: 10/28 10:03 AM EDT
10/14
Georgia polling average leader changed to Biden (+0.5%)
10/9
Georgia polling average leader changed to Trump (+0.2%)
9/29
Georgia polling average leader changed to Biden (+0.1%)
9/22
Georgia polling average leader changed to Trump (+0.1%)
8/17
Georgia polling average leader changed to Trump (+0.6%)