Georgia

Live Election Night Forecast

Last Updated: 11/21 2:56 PM EST
Winner
Biden
Biden

Election Night Forecast Changes

Here you can see how the forecast has in Georgia changed throughout the evening (and perhaps coming days?), all times are EST.





Georgia Pre-Election Forecast

If Election Today more aggressive + 2016 Polling Error assumes same polling errors

Toss Up

Win Probability

Biden
Trump
Biden
42.8%
Polls: 47.9% +0.3%
Trump
57.2%
Polls: 47.6%
42.8%
57.2%



Swing

 
+5.5%
From 2016 Results
+5.5%
From 2016 Polls
 



Testing

Standard Deviation: 2.116 Testing Range: +/- 4.98%




Tipping Point



3%
of the time





Polls

 
47.9%
Biden (+0.3%)
47.6%
Trump
 

Date Pollster Rating Voters Sample Size Republican Democrat Diff Diff (Adj) Weight
11/2/20 10/24-10/25 Wick LV 1,000 Trump
49.4
Biden
46.9
+2.5% +2.5% 0.52
11/2/20 10/27-11/1 Swayable D- LV 438 Trump
44.3
Biden
53.6
+9.3% +9.3% 0.5
11/2/20 10/27-11/1 Data for Progress B- LV 1,036 Trump
48
Biden
50
+2% +2% 1.06
11/2/20 10/19-11/1 SurveyMonkey D- LV 3,535 Trump
49
Biden
50
+1% +4% 0.11
11/2/20 10/19-11/1 SurveyMonkey D- RV 3,535 Trump
45
Biden
52
+7% +2% -
11/2/20 11/1-11/1 Landmark Communications B LV 500 Trump
50.1
Biden
46
+4.1% +5.7% 1.1
11/2/20 10/30-11/1 AYTM LV 380 Trump
48
Biden
52
+4% +4% 0.67
11/2/20 10/22-10/31 Morning Consult B/C LV 1,743 Trump
46.4
Biden
48.8
+2.4% +2.2% 0.96
11/1/20 10/30-10/31 AtlasIntel B/C LV 679 Trump
48.3
Biden
46.1
+2.2% +2.2% 1.02
11/1/20 11/1-11/1 InsiderAdvantage B- LV 500 Trump
48.1
Biden
46.1
+2% +3.2% 1.06
11/1/20 10/18-10/31 SurveyMonkey D- LV 3,748 Trump
48
Biden
50
+2% +3% 0.08
11/1/20 10/18-10/31 SurveyMonkey D- RV 3,748 Trump
45
Biden
53
+8% +3% -
11/1/20 9/29-10/27 CCES / YouGov B LV 1,456 Trump
47
Biden
48
+1% +0.6% 0.46
11/1/20 10/29-10/31 Emerson College A- LV 749 Trump
49.4
Biden
48.8
+0.6% +1% 1.13
10/31/20 10/16-10/30 SurveyMonkey D- LV 3,736 Trump
48
Biden
50
+2% +3% -
10/31/20 10/16-10/30 SurveyMonkey D- RV 3,736 Trump
45
Biden
52
+7% +2% -
10/30/20 10/16-10/29 SurveyMonkey D- LV 3,755 Trump
48
Biden
50
+2% +3% -
10/30/20 10/16-10/29 SurveyMonkey D- RV 3,755 Trump
45
Biden
52
+7% +2% -
10/30/20 10/28-10/28 Landmark Communications B LV 750 Trump
48
Biden
47
+1% +2.6% 0.95
10/30/20 10/23-10/26 Swayable D- LV 373 Trump
48.1
Biden
50.5
+2.4% +2.4% 0.3
10/29/20 10/1-10/28 SurveyMonkey D- LV 7,019 Trump
48
Biden
50
+2% +3% -
10/29/20 10/1-10/28 SurveyMonkey D- RV 7,019 Trump
45
Biden
52
+7% +2% -
10/29/20 10/27-10/28 Public Policy Polling B V 661 Trump
46
Biden
48
+2% +1.6% 0.91
10/29/20 10/17-10/20 Citizen Data LV 1,000 Trump
43.7
Biden
48.2
+4.4% +4.4% 0.26
10/28/20 10/23-10/27 Monmouth University A+ LV 504 Trump
48
Biden
50
+2% +0.6% 0.38
10/28/20 10/23-10/27 Monmouth University A+ LV 504 Trump
46
Biden
50
+4% +2.6% 0.38
10/28/20 10/23-10/27 Monmouth University A+ RV 504 Trump
45
Biden
50
+5% +3.6% -
10/28/20 9/30-10/27 SurveyMonkey D- LV 6,720 Trump
48
Biden
50
+2% +3% -
10/28/20 9/30-10/27 SurveyMonkey D- RV 6,720 Trump
46
Biden
52
+6% +1% -
10/27/20 10/23-10/26 Civiqs B/C LV 1,041 Trump
46
Biden
51
+5% +5% 0.82
10/26/20 9/28-10/25 SurveyMonkey D- LV 6,564 Trump
49
Biden
50
+1% +4% -
10/26/20 9/28-10/25 SurveyMonkey D- RV 6,564 Trump
46
Biden
52
+6% +1% -
10/26/20 10/14-10/23 University of Georgia B/C LV 1,145 Trump
46.2
Biden
46.5
+0.3% +0.7% 0.59
10/25/20 9/26-10/24 SurveyMonkey D- LV 6,530 Trump
49
Biden
50
+1% +4% -
10/25/20 9/26-10/24 SurveyMonkey D- RV 6,530 Trump
46
Biden
52
+6% +1% -
10/25/20 10/20-10/23 YouGov B LV 1,090 Trump
49
Biden
49
0% +0.4% 0.76
10/24/20 9/26-10/23 SurveyMonkey D- LV 6,507 Trump
49
Biden
50
+1% +4% -
10/24/20 9/26-10/23 SurveyMonkey D- RV 6,507 Trump
46
Biden
52
+6% +1% -
10/23/20 9/24-10/22 SurveyMonkey D- LV 6,533 Trump
49
Biden
50
+1% +4% -
10/23/20 9/24-10/22 SurveyMonkey D- RV 6,533 Trump
46
Biden
52
+6% +1% -
10/23/20 10/21-10/21 Landmark Communications B LV 500 Trump
49
Biden
45
+4% +5.6% 0.69
10/23/20 10/12-10/15 Opinion Insight A/B LV 800 Trump
45
Biden
49
+4% +4.6% 0.54
10/23/20 8/30-9/2 Opinion Insight A/B LV 800 Trump
46
Biden
46
0% +0.6% -
10/22/20 9/24-10/21 SurveyMonkey D- LV 6,420 Trump
49
Biden
49
0% +5% -
10/22/20 9/24-10/21 SurveyMonkey D- RV 6,420 Trump
46
Biden
52
+6% +1% -
10/22/20 10/11-10/20 Morning Consult B/C LV 1,672 Trump
48
Biden
48
0% +0.2% 0.5
10/21/20 10/11-10/14 Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group B/C LV 600 Trump
44
Biden
51
+7% +5.6% 0.38
10/21/20 9/23-10/20 SurveyMonkey D- LV 6,145 Trump
49
Biden
50
+1% +4% -
10/21/20 9/23-10/20 SurveyMonkey D- RV 6,145 Trump
46
Biden
52
+6% +1% -
10/20/20 9/22-10/19 SurveyMonkey D- LV 5,979 Trump
49
Biden
49
0% +5% -
10/20/20 9/22-10/19 SurveyMonkey D- RV 5,979 Trump
46
Biden
52
+6% +1% -
10/20/20 10/13-10/19 Siena College/The New York Times Upshot A+ LV 759 Trump
45
Biden
45
0% +0.4% 0.7
10/19/20 10/17-10/19 Emerson College A- LV 506 Trump
48.4
Biden
47
+1.4% +1.8% 0.66
10/19/20 9/21-10/18 SurveyMonkey D- LV 5,795 Trump
48
Biden
50
+2% +3% -
10/19/20 9/21-10/18 SurveyMonkey D- RV 5,795 Trump
46
Biden
52
+6% +1% -
10/18/20 9/20-10/17 SurveyMonkey D- LV 5,725 Trump
49
Biden
50
+1% +4% -
10/18/20 9/20-10/17 SurveyMonkey D- RV 5,725 Trump
46
Biden
52
+6% +1% -
10/17/20 9/19-10/16 SurveyMonkey D- LV 5,617 Trump
49
Biden
49
0% +5% -
10/17/20 9/19-10/16 SurveyMonkey D- RV 5,617 Trump
46
Biden
51
+5% 0% -
10/16/20 9/18-10/15 SurveyMonkey D- LV 5,376 Trump
49
Biden
50
+1% +4% -
10/16/20 9/18-10/15 SurveyMonkey D- RV 5,376 Trump
46
Biden
52
+6% +1% -
10/15/20 9/17-10/14 SurveyMonkey D- LV 5,029 Trump
49
Biden
49
0% +5% -
10/15/20 9/17-10/14 SurveyMonkey D- RV 5,029 Trump
46
Biden
51
+5% 0% -
10/14/20 9/15-10/13 SurveyMonkey D- LV 4,716 Trump
49
Biden
50
+1% +4% -
10/14/20 9/15-10/13 SurveyMonkey D- RV 4,716 Trump
46
Biden
52
+6% +1% -
10/14/20 10/8-10/11 Data for Progress B- LV 782 Trump
46
Biden
46
0% 0% 0.33
10/14/20 10/8-10/12 Quinnipiac University B+ LV 1,040 Trump
44
Biden
51
+7% +6.8% 0.41
10/14/20 10/8-10/12 SurveyUSA A LV 677 Trump
46
Biden
48
+2% +1.8% 0.48
10/13/20 9/15-10/12 SurveyMonkey D- LV 4,544 Trump
49
Biden
49
0% +5% -
10/13/20 9/15-10/12 SurveyMonkey D- RV 4,544 Trump
46
Biden
51
+5% 0% -
10/13/20 10/2-10/11 Morning Consult B/C LV 1,837 Trump
49
Biden
47
+2% +2.2% 0.25
10/10/20 10/8-10/9 Public Policy Polling B V 528 Trump
46
Biden
47
+1% +0.6% 0.37
10/9/20 10/7-10/7 Landmark Communications B LV 600 Trump
48.6
Biden
46.8
+1.8% +3.4% 0.29
10/9/20 9/27-10/6 University of Georgia B/C LV 1,106 Trump
47.5
Biden
46.4
+1.1% +0.7% 0.15
10/3/20 6/8-6/30 SurveyMonkey D- RV 2,059 Trump
45.3
Biden
51.6
+6.3% +1.3% -
10/3/20 6/8-6/30 SurveyMonkey D- LV 2,059 Trump
49.2
Biden
48.5
+0.6% +5.6% -
10/3/20 7/1-7/31 SurveyMonkey D- RV 3,745 Trump
49
Biden
48.5
+0.5% +5.5% -
10/3/20 7/1-7/31 SurveyMonkey D- LV 3,745 Trump
53
Biden
45.2
+7.8% +12.8% -
10/3/20 8/1-8/31 SurveyMonkey D- RV 2,772 Trump
45.9
Biden
51.8
+5.9% +0.9% -
10/3/20 8/1-8/31 SurveyMonkey D- LV 2,772 Trump
49
Biden
49
0% +5% -
10/2/20 9/1-9/30 SurveyMonkey D- RV 3,468 Trump
44.8
Biden
51.7
+6.9% +1.9% -
10/2/20 9/1-9/30 SurveyMonkey D- LV 3,468 Trump
48.4
Biden
49.1
+0.6% +4.4% -
10/2/20 9/23-9/26 Redfield & Wilton Strategies LV 789 Trump
44
Biden
45
+1% +1% -
10/2/20 9/24-9/27 Hart Research Associates B/C LV 400 Trump
47
Biden
50
+3% +1.6% -
10/1/20 9/30-9/30 Landmark Communications B LV 500 Trump
44.9
Biden
46.6
+1.7% +0.1% 0.16
9/29/20 9/26-9/29 Civiqs B/C LV 969 Trump
47
Biden
50
+3% +3% 0.07
9/29/20 9/23-9/27 Quinnipiac University B+ LV 1,125 Trump
47
Biden
50
+3% +2.8% 0.12
9/27/20 9/22-9/25 YouGov B LV 1,164 Trump
47
Biden
46
+1% +1.4% 0.08
9/24/20 9/14-9/19 Data for Progress B- LV 800 Trump
46
Biden
46
0% 0% -
9/24/20 9/14-9/19 Data for Progress B- LV 800 Trump
45
Biden
45
0% 0% -
9/24/20 9/16-9/21 Siena College/The New York Times Upshot A+ LV 523 Trump
45
Biden
45
0% +0.4% 0.18
9/23/20 9/17-9/21 Monmouth University A+ LV 402 Trump
50
Biden
45
+5% +6.4% -
9/23/20 9/17-9/21 Monmouth University A+ LV 402 Trump
48
Biden
46
+2% +3.4% -
9/23/20 9/17-9/21 Monmouth University A+ RV 402 Trump
47
Biden
46
+1% +2.4% -
9/22/20 9/11-9/20 University of Georgia B/C LV 1,150 Trump
47.3
Biden
47
+0.3% +0.1% -
9/21/20 9/14-9/16 GBAO B/C LV 600 Trump
46
Biden
49
+3% +3% -
9/20/20 9/12-9/16 Redfield & Wilton Strategies LV 800 Trump
46
Biden
45
+1% +1% -
9/15/20 8/20-8/30 HarrisX C RV 1,616 Trump
46
Biden
52.2
+6.2% +7.6% -
9/10/20 8/30-9/5 Fabrizio Ward/Hart Research Associates LV 800 Trump
46
Biden
47
+1% +1% -
9/9/20 8/29-9/7 Morning Consult B/C LV 1,486 Trump
48
Biden
46
+2% +2.2% -
9/1/20 8/29-8/31 Landmark Communications B LV 500 Trump
47.9
Biden
40.5
+7.4% +9% -
9/1/20 8/21-8/30 Morning Consult B/C LV 1,392 Trump
46
Biden
49
+3% +2.8% -
9/1/20 8/7-8/16 Morning Consult B/C LV 1,265 Trump
47
Biden
46
+1% +1.2% -
8/31/20 8/24-8/25 Public Policy Polling B V 782 Trump
46
Biden
47
+1% +0.6% -
8/17/20 8/14-8/15 Landmark Communications B LV 500 Trump
47.4
Biden
44.5
+2.9% +4.5% -
8/11/20 8/6-8/8 SurveyUSA A LV 623 Trump
44
Biden
46
+2% +1.8% -
8/10/20 7/23-7/31 HIT Strategies RV 400 Trump
40
Biden
44
+4% +4% -
8/2/20 7/28-7/31 YouGov B LV 1,109 Trump
45
Biden
46
+1% +0.6% -
7/29/20 7/23-7/27 Monmouth University A+ LV 402 Trump
49
Biden
46
+3% +4.4% -
7/29/20 7/23-7/27 Monmouth University A+ LV 402 Trump
48
Biden
47
+1% +2.4% -
7/29/20 7/23-7/27 Monmouth University A+ RV 402 Trump
47
Biden
47
0% +1.4% -
7/28/20 5/17-5/26 Morning Consult B/C LV 1,396 Trump
49
Biden
47
+2% +2.2% -
7/28/20 7/23-7/24 Public Policy Polling B V 722 Trump
45
Biden
46
+1% +0.6% -
7/28/20 7/17-7/26 Morning Consult B/C LV 1,337 Trump
46
Biden
47
+1% +0.8% -
7/22/20 7/11-7/16 Spry Strategies B/C LV 701 Trump
48.8
Biden
45.7
+3.1% +2.6% -
7/22/20 7/9-7/15 Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group B/C LV 800 Trump
43
Biden
47
+4% +2.6% -
7/20/20 7/15-7/18 Trafalgar Group C- LV 1,023 Trump
49.8
Biden
43.3
+6.5% +5.5% -
7/12/20 7/2-7/2 Gravis Marketing C LV 513 Trump
48
Biden
45
+3% +4% -
6/29/20 6/25-6/26 Public Policy Polling B V 734 Trump
45
Biden
49
+4% +3.6% -
6/25/20 6/20-6/23 Fox News A- RV 1,013 Trump
45
Biden
47
+2% +0.6% -
6/16/20 6/12-6/13 Public Policy Polling B V 661 Trump
46
Biden
48
+2% +1.6% -
6/11/20 5/21-5/27 TargetSmart B/C RV 321 Trump
44
Biden
40
+4% +4.6% -
5/19/20 5/16-5/18 Civiqs B/C RV 1,339 Trump
47
Biden
48
+1% +1% -
5/15/20 5/11-5/13 BK Strategies B/C LV 700 Trump
48
Biden
46
+2% +2.4% -
5/13/20 5/4-5/7 Public Opinion Strategies B+ LV 500 Trump
46
Biden
47
+1% +2.6% -
5/1/20 4/25-4/27 Cygnal A/B LV 591 Trump
45.1
Biden
44
+1.1% +2.1% -
4/3/20 3/31-4/1 Battleground Connect LV 1,035 Trump
48
Biden
46
+2% +2% -
3/4/20 2/24-3/2 University of Georgia B/C LV 1,117 Trump
51.4
Biden
43.1
+8.3% +7.9% -
1/9/20 12/19-12/23 Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy B+ RV 625 Trump
51
Biden
44
+7% +6.4% -
11/19/19 11/15-11/18 SurveyUSA A LV 1,303 Trump
43
Biden
47
+4% +3.8% -
11/19/19 11/4-11/10 Climate Nexus LV 688 Trump
47
Biden
48
+1% +1% -
11/13/19 10/28-10/30 Zogby Analytics C+ LV 550 Trump
44
Biden
46
+2% +2.6% -
11/13/19 10/30-11/8 University of Georgia B/C RV 1,028 Trump
42.5
Biden
51.1
+8.6% +9% -


Past Results

Year Candidates Republican Democrat Diff
2016 Trump v Clinton 50.8 45.6 +5.1%
2012 Romney v Obama 53.3 45.5 +7.8%
2008 McCain v Obama 52.2 47 +5.2%
2004 Bush v Kerry 58 41.4 +16.6%
2000 Bush v Gore 54.7 43 +11.7%




Updates

Last Updated: 11/2 11:45 PM EST
10/14
Georgia polling average leader changed to Biden (+0.5%)
10/9
Georgia polling average leader changed to Trump (+0.2%)
9/29
Georgia polling average leader changed to Biden (+0.1%)
9/22
Georgia polling average leader changed to Trump (+0.1%)
8/17
Georgia polling average leader changed to Trump (+0.6%)