Georgia

Live Election Night Forecast

Last Updated: 8/15 7:32 AM EDT
Winner
Biden
Biden

Election Night Forecast Changes

Here you can see how the forecast has in Georgia changed throughout the evening (and perhaps coming days?), all times are EST.




Georgia Pre-Election Forecast

If Election Today more aggressive + 2016 Polling Error assumes same polling errors
Test Polling Swings see how a swing changes the model

Toss Up

Win Probability
(with same polling error as 2016)

This version of the model assumes the same polling error (polls on election day vs actual result) as 2016.
In Georgia the polls are shifted 0.1% more Democratic.

Biden
Trump
Biden
43.1%
Polls: 47.6% +0.2%
Trump
56.9%
Polls: 47.4%
43.1%
56.9%



Swing

 
+5.4%
From 2016 Results
+5.4%
From 2016 Polls
 



Testing

Standard Deviation: 2.184 Testing Range: +/- 5.1%




Tipping Point



4.8%
of the time





Polls

 
47.6%
Biden (+0.2%)
47.4%
Trump
 



Updates

Last Updated: 11/3 4:39 PM EDT
10/14
Georgia polling average leader changed to Biden (+0.6%)
10/9
Georgia polling average leader changed to Trump (+0.2%)
9/29
Georgia polling average leader changed to Biden (+0.1%)
9/22
Georgia polling average leader changed to Trump (+0.1%)
8/17
Georgia polling average leader changed to Trump (+0.6%)