Hawaii

If Election Today more aggressive + 2016 Polling Error assumes same polling errors

Safe Biden

Win Probability

Biden
Trump
Biden
100%
Polls: 61.9% +30.1%
Trump
0%
Polls: 31.8%
100%



Swing

 
+2.1%
From 2016 Results
+10.6%
From 2016 Polls
 





Polls

 
61.9%
Biden (+30.1%)
31.8%
Trump
 

Date Pollster Rating Voters Sample Size Republican Democrat Diff Diff (Adj) Weight
10/28/20 9/30-10/27 SurveyMonkey D- LV 1,231 Trump
34
Biden
64
+30% +25% 0.14
10/28/20 9/30-10/27 SurveyMonkey D- RV 1,231 Trump
34
Biden
63
+29% +24% -
10/26/20 9/28-10/25 SurveyMonkey D- LV 1,187 Trump
34
Biden
64
+30% +25% 0.11
10/26/20 9/28-10/25 SurveyMonkey D- RV 1,187 Trump
34
Biden
63
+29% +24% -
10/25/20 9/27-10/24 SurveyMonkey D- LV 1,172 Trump
34
Biden
64
+30% +25% 0.09
10/25/20 9/27-10/24 SurveyMonkey D- RV 1,172 Trump
35
Biden
62
+27% +22% -
10/24/20 9/26-10/23 SurveyMonkey D- LV 1,153 Trump
34
Biden
63
+29% +24% 0.07
10/24/20 9/26-10/23 SurveyMonkey D- RV 1,153 Trump
35
Biden
62
+27% +22% -
10/23/20 9/24-10/22 SurveyMonkey D- LV 1,137 Trump
33
Biden
65
+32% +27% 0.06
10/23/20 9/24-10/22 SurveyMonkey D- RV 1,137 Trump
34
Biden
63
+29% +24% -
10/22/20 9/24-10/21 SurveyMonkey D- LV 1,088 Trump
32
Biden
66
+34% +29% 0.04
10/22/20 9/24-10/21 SurveyMonkey D- RV 1,088 Trump
33
Biden
63
+30% +25% -
10/21/20 9/23-10/20 SurveyMonkey D- LV 1,054 Trump
32
Biden
66
+34% +29% 0.02
10/21/20 9/23-10/20 SurveyMonkey D- RV 1,054 Trump
33
Biden
64
+31% +26% -
10/20/20 9/22-10/19 SurveyMonkey D- LV 1,013 Trump
32
Biden
66
+34% +29% -
10/20/20 9/22-10/19 SurveyMonkey D- RV 1,013 Trump
32
Biden
65
+33% +28% -
10/19/20 9/21-10/18 SurveyMonkey D- LV 987 Trump
32
Biden
66
+34% +29% -
10/19/20 9/21-10/18 SurveyMonkey D- RV 987 Trump
33
Biden
65
+32% +27% -
10/18/20 9/20-10/17 SurveyMonkey D- LV 975 Trump
32
Biden
66
+34% +29% -
10/18/20 9/20-10/17 SurveyMonkey D- RV 975 Trump
33
Biden
65
+32% +27% -
10/17/20 9/19-10/16 SurveyMonkey D- LV 934 Trump
31
Biden
67
+36% +31% -
10/17/20 9/19-10/16 SurveyMonkey D- RV 934 Trump
32
Biden
65
+33% +28% -
10/16/20 9/17-10/15 SurveyMonkey D- LV 896 Trump
31
Biden
67
+36% +31% -
10/16/20 9/17-10/15 SurveyMonkey D- RV 896 Trump
31
Biden
66
+35% +30% -
10/16/20 10/2-10/7 MRG Research B/C RV 988 Trump
28
Biden
61
+33% +35.2% 0.47
10/15/20 9/17-10/14 SurveyMonkey D- LV 829 Trump
34
Biden
64
+30% +25% -
10/15/20 9/17-10/14 SurveyMonkey D- RV 829 Trump
34
Biden
63
+29% +24% -
10/14/20 9/16-10/13 SurveyMonkey D- LV 755 Trump
35
Biden
64
+29% +24% -
10/14/20 9/16-10/13 SurveyMonkey D- RV 755 Trump
35
Biden
63
+28% +23% -
10/13/20 9/15-10/12 SurveyMonkey D- LV 713 Trump
35
Biden
64
+29% +24% -
10/13/20 9/15-10/12 SurveyMonkey D- RV 713 Trump
35
Biden
63
+28% +23% -
10/3/20 6/8-6/30 SurveyMonkey D- RV 207 Trump
30.8
Biden
65.8
+35% +30% -
10/3/20 6/8-6/30 SurveyMonkey D- LV 207 Trump
30.4
Biden
66.9
+36.4% +31.4% -
10/3/20 7/1-7/31 SurveyMonkey D- RV 356 Trump
38
Biden
60.3
+22.3% +17.3% -
10/3/20 7/1-7/31 SurveyMonkey D- LV 356 Trump
36.8
Biden
61.5
+24.8% +19.8% -
10/3/20 8/1-8/31 SurveyMonkey D- RV 362 Trump
36.9
Biden
59.3
+22.4% +17.4% -
10/3/20 8/1-8/31 SurveyMonkey D- LV 362 Trump
37
Biden
61
+24% +19% -
10/2/20 9/1-9/30 SurveyMonkey D- RV 474 Trump
33.8
Biden
64.6
+30.8% +25.8% -
10/2/20 9/1-9/30 SurveyMonkey D- LV 474 Trump
33.3
Biden
65.6
+32.3% +27.3% -
8/5/20 7/27-7/30 MRG Research B/C RV 975 Trump
29
Biden
56
+27% +29.2% -


Past Results

Year Candidates Republican Democrat Diff
2016 Trump v Clinton 30 62.2 +32.2%
2012 Romney v Obama 27.8 70.6 +42.7%
2008 McCain v Obama 26.6 71.9 +45.3%
2004 Bush v Kerry 45.3 54 +8.8%
2000 Bush v Gore 37.5 55.8 +18.3%




Updates

Last Updated: 10/28 11:31 AM EDT
10/16
Hawaii polls jumped 6.3% toward Biden (was D+24.9%, now D+31.2%)
10/13
Hawaii polls jumped 1.5% toward Biden (was D+23.6%, now D+25.1%)