Hawaii

Live Election Night Forecast

Last Updated: 11/21 2:56 PM EST
Winner
Biden
Biden

Election Night Forecast Changes

Here you can see how the forecast has in Hawaii changed throughout the evening (and perhaps coming days?), all times are EST.





Hawaii Pre-Election Forecast

If Election Today more aggressive + 2016 Polling Error assumes same polling errors

Safe Biden

Win Probability

Biden
Trump
Biden
100%
Polls: 62.6% +30.4%
Trump
0%
Polls: 32.2%
100%



Swing

 
+1.8%
From 2016 Results
+10.9%
From 2016 Polls
 





Polls

 
62.6%
Biden (+30.4%)
32.2%
Trump
 

Date Pollster Rating Voters Sample Size Republican Democrat Diff Diff (Adj) Weight
11/2/20 10/20-11/1 SurveyMonkey D- LV 619 Trump
31
Biden
66
+35% +30% 0.23
11/2/20 10/20-11/1 SurveyMonkey D- RV 619 Trump
31
Biden
65
+34% +29% -
11/1/20 10/18-10/31 SurveyMonkey D- LV 631 Trump
32
Biden
66
+34% +29% 0.22
11/1/20 10/18-10/31 SurveyMonkey D- RV 631 Trump
32
Biden
64
+32% +27% -
10/31/20 10/17-10/30 SurveyMonkey D- LV 646 Trump
32
Biden
65
+33% +28% 0.2
10/31/20 10/17-10/30 SurveyMonkey D- RV 646 Trump
33
Biden
63
+30% +25% -
10/30/20 10/16-10/29 SurveyMonkey D- LV 649 Trump
32
Biden
65
+33% +28% 0.18
10/30/20 10/16-10/29 SurveyMonkey D- RV 649 Trump
34
Biden
63
+29% +24% -
10/29/20 10/1-10/28 SurveyMonkey D- LV 1,263 Trump
34
Biden
63
+29% +24% 0.07
10/29/20 10/1-10/28 SurveyMonkey D- RV 1,263 Trump
35
Biden
62
+27% +22% -
10/28/20 9/30-10/27 SurveyMonkey D- LV 1,231 Trump
34
Biden
64
+30% +25% 0.05
10/28/20 9/30-10/27 SurveyMonkey D- RV 1,231 Trump
34
Biden
63
+29% +24% -
10/26/20 9/28-10/25 SurveyMonkey D- LV 1,187 Trump
34
Biden
64
+30% +25% 0.02
10/26/20 9/28-10/25 SurveyMonkey D- RV 1,187 Trump
34
Biden
63
+29% +24% -
10/25/20 9/27-10/24 SurveyMonkey D- LV 1,172 Trump
34
Biden
64
+30% +25% -
10/25/20 9/27-10/24 SurveyMonkey D- RV 1,172 Trump
35
Biden
62
+27% +22% -
10/24/20 9/26-10/23 SurveyMonkey D- LV 1,153 Trump
34
Biden
63
+29% +24% -
10/24/20 9/26-10/23 SurveyMonkey D- RV 1,153 Trump
35
Biden
62
+27% +22% -
10/23/20 9/24-10/22 SurveyMonkey D- LV 1,137 Trump
33
Biden
65
+32% +27% -
10/23/20 9/24-10/22 SurveyMonkey D- RV 1,137 Trump
34
Biden
63
+29% +24% -
10/22/20 9/24-10/21 SurveyMonkey D- LV 1,088 Trump
32
Biden
66
+34% +29% -
10/22/20 9/24-10/21 SurveyMonkey D- RV 1,088 Trump
33
Biden
63
+30% +25% -
10/21/20 9/23-10/20 SurveyMonkey D- LV 1,054 Trump
32
Biden
66
+34% +29% -
10/21/20 9/23-10/20 SurveyMonkey D- RV 1,054 Trump
33
Biden
64
+31% +26% -
10/20/20 9/22-10/19 SurveyMonkey D- LV 1,013 Trump
32
Biden
66
+34% +29% -
10/20/20 9/22-10/19 SurveyMonkey D- RV 1,013 Trump
32
Biden
65
+33% +28% -
10/19/20 9/21-10/18 SurveyMonkey D- LV 987 Trump
32
Biden
66
+34% +29% -
10/19/20 9/21-10/18 SurveyMonkey D- RV 987 Trump
33
Biden
65
+32% +27% -
10/18/20 9/20-10/17 SurveyMonkey D- LV 975 Trump
32
Biden
66
+34% +29% -
10/18/20 9/20-10/17 SurveyMonkey D- RV 975 Trump
33
Biden
65
+32% +27% -
10/17/20 9/19-10/16 SurveyMonkey D- LV 934 Trump
31
Biden
67
+36% +31% -
10/17/20 9/19-10/16 SurveyMonkey D- RV 934 Trump
32
Biden
65
+33% +28% -
10/16/20 9/17-10/15 SurveyMonkey D- LV 896 Trump
31
Biden
67
+36% +31% -
10/16/20 9/17-10/15 SurveyMonkey D- RV 896 Trump
31
Biden
66
+35% +30% -
10/16/20 10/2-10/7 MRG Research B/C RV 988 Trump
28
Biden
61
+33% +35.2% 0.38
10/15/20 9/17-10/14 SurveyMonkey D- LV 829 Trump
34
Biden
64
+30% +25% -
10/15/20 9/17-10/14 SurveyMonkey D- RV 829 Trump
34
Biden
63
+29% +24% -
10/14/20 9/16-10/13 SurveyMonkey D- LV 755 Trump
35
Biden
64
+29% +24% -
10/14/20 9/16-10/13 SurveyMonkey D- RV 755 Trump
35
Biden
63
+28% +23% -
10/13/20 9/15-10/12 SurveyMonkey D- LV 713 Trump
35
Biden
64
+29% +24% -
10/13/20 9/15-10/12 SurveyMonkey D- RV 713 Trump
35
Biden
63
+28% +23% -
10/3/20 6/8-6/30 SurveyMonkey D- RV 207 Trump
30.8
Biden
65.8
+35% +30% -
10/3/20 6/8-6/30 SurveyMonkey D- LV 207 Trump
30.4
Biden
66.9
+36.4% +31.4% -
10/3/20 7/1-7/31 SurveyMonkey D- RV 356 Trump
38
Biden
60.3
+22.3% +17.3% -
10/3/20 7/1-7/31 SurveyMonkey D- LV 356 Trump
36.8
Biden
61.5
+24.8% +19.8% -
10/3/20 8/1-8/31 SurveyMonkey D- RV 362 Trump
36.9
Biden
59.3
+22.4% +17.4% -
10/3/20 8/1-8/31 SurveyMonkey D- LV 362 Trump
37
Biden
61
+24% +19% -
10/2/20 9/1-9/30 SurveyMonkey D- RV 474 Trump
33.8
Biden
64.6
+30.8% +25.8% -
10/2/20 9/1-9/30 SurveyMonkey D- LV 474 Trump
33.3
Biden
65.6
+32.3% +27.3% -
8/5/20 7/27-7/30 MRG Research B/C RV 975 Trump
29
Biden
56
+27% +29.2% -


Past Results

Year Candidates Republican Democrat Diff
2016 Trump v Clinton 30 62.2 +32.2%
2012 Romney v Obama 27.8 70.6 +42.7%
2008 McCain v Obama 26.6 71.9 +45.3%
2004 Bush v Kerry 45.3 54 +8.8%
2000 Bush v Gore 37.5 55.8 +18.3%




Updates

Last Updated: 11/3 8:41 AM EST
10/16
Hawaii polls jumped 6.3% toward Biden (was D+24.9%, now D+31.2%)
10/13
Hawaii polls jumped 1.5% toward Biden (was D+23.6%, now D+25.1%)