Hawaii
Live Election Night Forecast
Last Updated: 11/23 9:21 AM ESTWinner
Biden
Election Night Forecast Changes
Here you can see how the forecast has in Hawaii changed throughout the evening (and perhaps coming days?), all times are EST.
Hawaii Pre-Election Forecast
Safe Biden
Win Probability
Biden
100%
Polls: 62.6%
+30.4%
Trump
0%
Polls: 32.2%
Swing
+1.8%
From 2016 Results
+10.9%
From 2016 Polls
Polls
62.6%
Biden
(+30.4%)
32.2%
Trump
| Date | Pollster | Rating | Voters | Sample Size | Republican | Democrat | Diff | Diff (Adj) | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/2/20 10/20-11/1 | SurveyMonkey | D- | LV | 619 | Trump 31 |
Biden 66 |
+35% | +30% | 0.23 |
| 11/2/20 10/20-11/1 | SurveyMonkey | D- | RV | 619 | Trump 31 |
Biden 65 |
+34% | +29% | - |
| 11/1/20 10/18-10/31 | SurveyMonkey | D- | LV | 631 | Trump 32 |
Biden 66 |
+34% | +29% | 0.22 |
| 11/1/20 10/18-10/31 | SurveyMonkey | D- | RV | 631 | Trump 32 |
Biden 64 |
+32% | +27% | - |
| 10/31/20 10/17-10/30 | SurveyMonkey | D- | LV | 646 | Trump 32 |
Biden 65 |
+33% | +28% | 0.2 |
| 10/31/20 10/17-10/30 | SurveyMonkey | D- | RV | 646 | Trump 33 |
Biden 63 |
+30% | +25% | - |
| 10/30/20 10/16-10/29 | SurveyMonkey | D- | LV | 649 | Trump 32 |
Biden 65 |
+33% | +28% | 0.18 |
| 10/30/20 10/16-10/29 | SurveyMonkey | D- | RV | 649 | Trump 34 |
Biden 63 |
+29% | +24% | - |
| 10/29/20 10/1-10/28 | SurveyMonkey | D- | LV | 1,263 | Trump 34 |
Biden 63 |
+29% | +24% | 0.07 |
| 10/29/20 10/1-10/28 | SurveyMonkey | D- | RV | 1,263 | Trump 35 |
Biden 62 |
+27% | +22% | - |
| 10/28/20 9/30-10/27 | SurveyMonkey | D- | LV | 1,231 | Trump 34 |
Biden 64 |
+30% | +25% | 0.05 |
| 10/28/20 9/30-10/27 | SurveyMonkey | D- | RV | 1,231 | Trump 34 |
Biden 63 |
+29% | +24% | - |
| 10/26/20 9/28-10/25 | SurveyMonkey | D- | LV | 1,187 | Trump 34 |
Biden 64 |
+30% | +25% | 0.02 |
| 10/26/20 9/28-10/25 | SurveyMonkey | D- | RV | 1,187 | Trump 34 |
Biden 63 |
+29% | +24% | - |
| 10/25/20 9/27-10/24 | SurveyMonkey | D- | LV | 1,172 | Trump 34 |
Biden 64 |
+30% | +25% | - |
| 10/25/20 9/27-10/24 | SurveyMonkey | D- | RV | 1,172 | Trump 35 |
Biden 62 |
+27% | +22% | - |
| 10/24/20 9/26-10/23 | SurveyMonkey | D- | LV | 1,153 | Trump 34 |
Biden 63 |
+29% | +24% | - |
| 10/24/20 9/26-10/23 | SurveyMonkey | D- | RV | 1,153 | Trump 35 |
Biden 62 |
+27% | +22% | - |
| 10/23/20 9/24-10/22 | SurveyMonkey | D- | LV | 1,137 | Trump 33 |
Biden 65 |
+32% | +27% | - |
| 10/23/20 9/24-10/22 | SurveyMonkey | D- | RV | 1,137 | Trump 34 |
Biden 63 |
+29% | +24% | - |
| 10/22/20 9/24-10/21 | SurveyMonkey | D- | LV | 1,088 | Trump 32 |
Biden 66 |
+34% | +29% | - |
| 10/22/20 9/24-10/21 | SurveyMonkey | D- | RV | 1,088 | Trump 33 |
Biden 63 |
+30% | +25% | - |
| 10/21/20 9/23-10/20 | SurveyMonkey | D- | LV | 1,054 | Trump 32 |
Biden 66 |
+34% | +29% | - |
| 10/21/20 9/23-10/20 | SurveyMonkey | D- | RV | 1,054 | Trump 33 |
Biden 64 |
+31% | +26% | - |
| 10/20/20 9/22-10/19 | SurveyMonkey | D- | LV | 1,013 | Trump 32 |
Biden 66 |
+34% | +29% | - |
| 10/20/20 9/22-10/19 | SurveyMonkey | D- | RV | 1,013 | Trump 32 |
Biden 65 |
+33% | +28% | - |
| 10/19/20 9/21-10/18 | SurveyMonkey | D- | LV | 987 | Trump 32 |
Biden 66 |
+34% | +29% | - |
| 10/19/20 9/21-10/18 | SurveyMonkey | D- | RV | 987 | Trump 33 |
Biden 65 |
+32% | +27% | - |
| 10/18/20 9/20-10/17 | SurveyMonkey | D- | LV | 975 | Trump 32 |
Biden 66 |
+34% | +29% | - |
| 10/18/20 9/20-10/17 | SurveyMonkey | D- | RV | 975 | Trump 33 |
Biden 65 |
+32% | +27% | - |
| 10/17/20 9/19-10/16 | SurveyMonkey | D- | LV | 934 | Trump 31 |
Biden 67 |
+36% | +31% | - |
| 10/17/20 9/19-10/16 | SurveyMonkey | D- | RV | 934 | Trump 32 |
Biden 65 |
+33% | +28% | - |
| 10/16/20 9/17-10/15 | SurveyMonkey | D- | LV | 896 | Trump 31 |
Biden 67 |
+36% | +31% | - |
| 10/16/20 9/17-10/15 | SurveyMonkey | D- | RV | 896 | Trump 31 |
Biden 66 |
+35% | +30% | - |
| 10/16/20 10/2-10/7 | MRG Research | B/C | RV | 988 | Trump 28 |
Biden 61 |
+33% | +35.2% | 0.38 |
| 10/15/20 9/17-10/14 | SurveyMonkey | D- | LV | 829 | Trump 34 |
Biden 64 |
+30% | +25% | - |
| 10/15/20 9/17-10/14 | SurveyMonkey | D- | RV | 829 | Trump 34 |
Biden 63 |
+29% | +24% | - |
| 10/14/20 9/16-10/13 | SurveyMonkey | D- | LV | 755 | Trump 35 |
Biden 64 |
+29% | +24% | - |
| 10/14/20 9/16-10/13 | SurveyMonkey | D- | RV | 755 | Trump 35 |
Biden 63 |
+28% | +23% | - |
| 10/13/20 9/15-10/12 | SurveyMonkey | D- | LV | 713 | Trump 35 |
Biden 64 |
+29% | +24% | - |
| 10/13/20 9/15-10/12 | SurveyMonkey | D- | RV | 713 | Trump 35 |
Biden 63 |
+28% | +23% | - |
| 10/3/20 6/8-6/30 | SurveyMonkey | D- | RV | 207 | Trump 30.8 |
Biden 65.8 |
+35% | +30% | - |
| 10/3/20 6/8-6/30 | SurveyMonkey | D- | LV | 207 | Trump 30.4 |
Biden 66.9 |
+36.4% | +31.4% | - |
| 10/3/20 7/1-7/31 | SurveyMonkey | D- | RV | 356 | Trump 38 |
Biden 60.3 |
+22.3% | +17.3% | - |
| 10/3/20 7/1-7/31 | SurveyMonkey | D- | LV | 356 | Trump 36.8 |
Biden 61.5 |
+24.8% | +19.8% | - |
| 10/3/20 8/1-8/31 | SurveyMonkey | D- | RV | 362 | Trump 36.9 |
Biden 59.3 |
+22.4% | +17.4% | - |
| 10/3/20 8/1-8/31 | SurveyMonkey | D- | LV | 362 | Trump 37 |
Biden 61 |
+24% | +19% | - |
| 10/2/20 9/1-9/30 | SurveyMonkey | D- | RV | 474 | Trump 33.8 |
Biden 64.6 |
+30.8% | +25.8% | - |
| 10/2/20 9/1-9/30 | SurveyMonkey | D- | LV | 474 | Trump 33.3 |
Biden 65.6 |
+32.3% | +27.3% | - |
| 8/5/20 7/27-7/30 | MRG Research | B/C | RV | 975 | Trump 29 |
Biden 56 |
+27% | +29.2% | - |
Past Results
| Year | Candidates | Republican | Democrat | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | Trump v Clinton | 30 | 62.2 | +32.2% |
| 2012 | Romney v Obama | 27.8 | 70.6 | +42.7% |
| 2008 | McCain v Obama | 26.6 | 71.9 | +45.3% |
| 2004 | Bush v Kerry | 45.3 | 54 | +8.8% |
| 2000 | Bush v Gore | 37.5 | 55.8 | +18.3% |
Updates
Last Updated: 11/3 8:41 AM EST10/16
10/13
