Idaho

Live Election Night Forecast

Last Updated: 11/21 2:56 PM EST
Winner
Trump
Trump

Election Night Forecast Changes

Here you can see how the forecast has in Idaho changed throughout the evening (and perhaps coming days?), all times are EST.





Idaho Pre-Election Forecast

If Election Today more aggressive + 2016 Polling Error assumes same polling errors

Safe Trump

Win Probability

Biden
Trump
Biden
0%
Polls: 36.5%
Trump
100%
Polls: 61.5% +25%
100%



Swing

 
+6.8%
From 2016 Results
+6%
From 2016 Polls
 





Polls

 
36.5%
Biden
61.5%
Trump (+25%)
 

Date Pollster Rating Voters Sample Size Republican Democrat Diff Diff (Adj) Weight
11/2/20 10/20-11/1 SurveyMonkey D- LV 824 Trump
58
Biden
40
+18% +23% 0.25
11/2/20 10/20-11/1 SurveyMonkey D- RV 824 Trump
57
Biden
40
+17% +22% -
11/1/20 10/18-10/31 SurveyMonkey D- LV 878 Trump
59
Biden
39
+20% +25% 0.23
11/1/20 10/18-10/31 SurveyMonkey D- RV 878 Trump
58
Biden
40
+18% +23% -
10/31/20 10/17-10/30 SurveyMonkey D- LV 882 Trump
60
Biden
38
+22% +27% 0.21
10/31/20 10/17-10/30 SurveyMonkey D- RV 882 Trump
59
Biden
39
+20% +25% -
10/30/20 10/16-10/29 SurveyMonkey D- LV 911 Trump
60
Biden
38
+22% +27% 0.19
10/30/20 10/16-10/29 SurveyMonkey D- RV 911 Trump
59
Biden
39
+20% +25% -
10/29/20 10/1-10/28 SurveyMonkey D- LV 1,799 Trump
58
Biden
40
+18% +23% 0.07
10/29/20 10/1-10/28 SurveyMonkey D- RV 1,799 Trump
57
Biden
40
+17% +22% -
10/28/20 9/30-10/27 SurveyMonkey D- LV 1,758 Trump
58
Biden
40
+18% +23% 0.06
10/28/20 9/30-10/27 SurveyMonkey D- RV 1,758 Trump
57
Biden
40
+17% +22% -
10/26/20 9/28-10/25 SurveyMonkey D- LV 1,679 Trump
58
Biden
40
+18% +23% 0.03
10/26/20 9/28-10/25 SurveyMonkey D- RV 1,679 Trump
58
Biden
40
+18% +23% -
10/25/20 9/27-10/24 SurveyMonkey D- LV 1,669 Trump
58
Biden
40
+18% +23% 0.01
10/25/20 9/27-10/24 SurveyMonkey D- RV 1,669 Trump
58
Biden
40
+18% +23% -
10/24/20 9/25-10/23 SurveyMonkey D- LV 1,651 Trump
58
Biden
40
+18% +23% -
10/24/20 9/25-10/23 SurveyMonkey D- RV 1,651 Trump
58
Biden
40
+18% +23% -
10/23/20 9/24-10/22 SurveyMonkey D- LV 1,625 Trump
58
Biden
40
+18% +23% -
10/23/20 9/24-10/22 SurveyMonkey D- RV 1,625 Trump
58
Biden
40
+18% +23% -
10/22/20 9/24-10/21 SurveyMonkey D- LV 1,607 Trump
57
Biden
40
+17% +22% -
10/22/20 9/24-10/21 SurveyMonkey D- RV 1,607 Trump
58
Biden
40
+18% +23% -
10/21/20 9/23-10/20 SurveyMonkey D- LV 1,547 Trump
57
Biden
41
+16% +21% -
10/21/20 9/23-10/20 SurveyMonkey D- RV 1,547 Trump
57
Biden
40
+17% +22% -
10/20/20 9/21-10/19 SurveyMonkey D- LV 1,510 Trump
57
Biden
41
+16% +21% -
10/20/20 9/21-10/19 SurveyMonkey D- RV 1,510 Trump
57
Biden
40
+17% +22% -
10/19/20 9/21-10/18 SurveyMonkey D- LV 1,482 Trump
57
Biden
41
+16% +21% -
10/19/20 9/21-10/18 SurveyMonkey D- RV 1,482 Trump
58
Biden
40
+18% +23% -
10/18/20 9/20-10/17 SurveyMonkey D- LV 1,461 Trump
58
Biden
40
+18% +23% -
10/18/20 9/20-10/17 SurveyMonkey D- RV 1,461 Trump
58
Biden
39
+19% +24% -
10/17/20 9/19-10/16 SurveyMonkey D- LV 1,431 Trump
59
Biden
39
+20% +25% -
10/17/20 9/19-10/16 SurveyMonkey D- RV 1,431 Trump
60
Biden
38
+22% +27% -
10/16/20 9/18-10/15 SurveyMonkey D- LV 1,364 Trump
59
Biden
39
+20% +25% -
10/16/20 9/18-10/15 SurveyMonkey D- RV 1,364 Trump
60
Biden
38
+22% +27% -
10/15/20 9/17-10/14 SurveyMonkey D- LV 1,296 Trump
58
Biden
39
+19% +24% -
10/15/20 9/17-10/14 SurveyMonkey D- RV 1,296 Trump
59
Biden
39
+20% +25% -
10/14/20 9/16-10/13 SurveyMonkey D- LV 1,190 Trump
58
Biden
39
+19% +24% -
10/14/20 9/16-10/13 SurveyMonkey D- RV 1,190 Trump
59
Biden
38
+21% +26% -
10/13/20 9/14-10/12 SurveyMonkey D- LV 1,123 Trump
59
Biden
39
+20% +25% -
10/13/20 9/14-10/12 SurveyMonkey D- RV 1,123 Trump
59
Biden
38
+21% +26% -
10/3/20 6/8-6/30 SurveyMonkey D- RV 266 Trump
57.4
Biden
41.3
+16.1% +21.1% -
10/3/20 6/8-6/30 SurveyMonkey D- LV 266 Trump
58.4
Biden
40.7
+17.7% +22.7% -
10/3/20 7/1-7/31 SurveyMonkey D- RV 671 Trump
63
Biden
34.8
+28.2% +33.2% -
10/3/20 7/1-7/31 SurveyMonkey D- LV 671 Trump
62.8
Biden
35.2
+27.6% +32.6% -
10/3/20 8/1-8/31 SurveyMonkey D- RV 737 Trump
57.9
Biden
39.7
+18.2% +23.2% -
10/3/20 8/1-8/31 SurveyMonkey D- LV 737 Trump
58
Biden
40
+18% +23% -
10/2/20 9/1-9/30 SurveyMonkey D- RV 761 Trump
63.9
Biden
34.7
+29.3% +34.3% -
10/2/20 9/1-9/30 SurveyMonkey D- LV 761 Trump
63.8
Biden
35
+28.8% +33.8% -
9/7/20 8/29-9/1 Spry Strategies B/C LV 600 Trump
59.7
Biden
34.5
+25.2% +24.8% -


Past Results

Year Candidates Republican Democrat Diff
2016 Trump v Clinton 59.3 27.5 +31.8%
2012 Romney v Obama 64.5 32.6 +31.9%
2008 McCain v Obama 61.5 36.1 +25.4%
2004 Bush v Kerry 68.4 30.3 +38.1%
2000 Bush v Gore 67.2 27.6 +39.5%




Updates

Last Updated: 11/3 1:38 AM EST
10/30
Idaho polls jumped 1.5% toward Trump (was R+23%, now R+24.5%)