Illinois

If Election Today more aggressive + 2016 Polling Error assumes same polling errors

Safe Biden

Win Probability

Biden
Trump
Biden
100%
Polls: 54.3% +12.9%
Trump
0%
Polls: 41.4%
100%



Swing

 
+4.1%
From 2016 Results
+0.5%
From 2016 Polls
 



Testing

Standard Deviation: 2.087 Testing Range: +/- 4.8%




Tipping Point



0.8%
of the time





Polls

 
54.3%
Biden (+12.9%)
41.4%
Trump
 

Date Pollster Rating Voters Sample Size Republican Democrat Diff Diff (Adj) Weight
10/26/20 9/27-10/25 SurveyMonkey D- LV 7,649 Trump
40
Biden
57
+17% +12% 0.13
10/26/20 9/27-10/25 SurveyMonkey D- RV 7,649 Trump
39
Biden
58
+19% +14% -
10/25/20 9/26-10/24 SurveyMonkey D- LV 7,633 Trump
40
Biden
57
+17% +12% 0.11
10/25/20 9/26-10/24 SurveyMonkey D- RV 7,633 Trump
39
Biden
58
+19% +14% -
10/24/20 9/25-10/23 SurveyMonkey D- LV 7,609 Trump
40
Biden
58
+18% +13% 0.09
10/24/20 9/25-10/23 SurveyMonkey D- RV 7,609 Trump
39
Biden
58
+19% +14% -
10/23/20 9/24-10/22 SurveyMonkey D- LV 7,606 Trump
40
Biden
58
+18% +13% 0.07
10/23/20 9/24-10/22 SurveyMonkey D- RV 7,606 Trump
38
Biden
58
+20% +15% -
10/22/20 9/24-10/21 SurveyMonkey D- LV 7,554 Trump
39
Biden
58
+19% +14% 0.06
10/22/20 9/24-10/21 SurveyMonkey D- RV 7,554 Trump
38
Biden
58
+20% +15% -
10/21/20 9/23-10/20 SurveyMonkey D- LV 7,436 Trump
40
Biden
58
+18% +13% 0.04
10/21/20 9/23-10/20 SurveyMonkey D- RV 7,436 Trump
39
Biden
58
+19% +14% -
10/20/20 9/22-10/19 SurveyMonkey D- LV 7,410 Trump
39
Biden
58
+19% +14% 0.02
10/20/20 9/22-10/19 SurveyMonkey D- RV 7,410 Trump
38
Biden
59
+21% +16% -
10/19/20 9/21-10/18 SurveyMonkey D- LV 7,417 Trump
39
Biden
59
+20% +15% -
10/19/20 9/21-10/18 SurveyMonkey D- RV 7,417 Trump
38
Biden
59
+21% +16% -
10/18/20 9/19-10/17 SurveyMonkey D- LV 7,432 Trump
39
Biden
59
+20% +15% -
10/18/20 9/19-10/17 SurveyMonkey D- RV 7,432 Trump
38
Biden
59
+21% +16% -
10/17/20 9/18-10/16 SurveyMonkey D- LV 7,441 Trump
38
Biden
60
+22% +17% -
10/17/20 9/18-10/16 SurveyMonkey D- RV 7,441 Trump
37
Biden
60
+23% +18% -
10/16/20 9/17-10/15 SurveyMonkey D- LV 7,469 Trump
37
Biden
60
+23% +18% -
10/16/20 9/17-10/15 SurveyMonkey D- RV 7,469 Trump
36
Biden
60
+24% +19% -
10/15/20 9/17-10/14 SurveyMonkey D- LV 7,232 Trump
38
Biden
60
+22% +17% -
10/15/20 9/17-10/14 SurveyMonkey D- RV 7,232 Trump
37
Biden
60
+23% +18% -
10/14/20 9/16-10/13 SurveyMonkey D- LV 7,152 Trump
38
Biden
60
+22% +17% -
10/14/20 9/16-10/13 SurveyMonkey D- RV 7,152 Trump
37
Biden
60
+23% +18% -
10/13/20 9/15-10/12 SurveyMonkey D- LV 7,226 Trump
37
Biden
60
+23% +18% -
10/13/20 9/15-10/12 SurveyMonkey D- RV 7,226 Trump
36
Biden
60
+24% +19% -
10/3/20 6/8-6/30 SurveyMonkey D- RV 3,000 Trump
36.6
Biden
60.6
+24% +19% -
10/3/20 6/8-6/30 SurveyMonkey D- LV 3,000 Trump
38.6
Biden
59.1
+20.5% +15.5% -
10/3/20 7/1-7/31 SurveyMonkey D- RV 7,565 Trump
37.2
Biden
59.8
+22.6% +17.6% -
10/3/20 7/1-7/31 SurveyMonkey D- LV 7,565 Trump
38.4
Biden
59.3
+20.9% +15.9% -
10/3/20 8/1-8/31 SurveyMonkey D- RV 6,773 Trump
37
Biden
60
+23% +18% -
10/3/20 8/1-8/31 SurveyMonkey D- LV 6,773 Trump
38
Biden
60
+22% +17% -
10/2/20 9/1-9/30 SurveyMonkey D- RV 8,392 Trump
35.5
Biden
61.1
+25.6% +20.6% -
10/2/20 9/1-9/30 SurveyMonkey D- LV 8,392 Trump
36.3
Biden
61.1
+24.7% +19.7% -
9/28/20 9/23-9/26 Victory Research B/C LV 1,208 Trump
39.8
Biden
52.9
+13.1% +13.1% 0.28


Past Results

Year Candidates Republican Democrat Diff
2016 Trump v Clinton 38.8 55.8 +17.1%
2012 Romney v Obama 40.7 57.6 +16.9%
2008 McCain v Obama 36.8 61.9 +25.1%
2004 Bush v Kerry 44.5 54.8 +10.3%
2000 Bush v Gore 42.6 54.6 +12%




Updates

Last Updated: 10/28 10:16 AM EDT
6/19
Illinois changed from Likely Biden to Safe Biden