Illinois

Live Election Night Forecast

Last Updated: 11/5 4:32 PM EDT
Winner
Biden
Biden

Election Night Forecast Changes

Here you can see how the forecast has in Illinois changed throughout the evening (and perhaps coming days?), all times are EST.




Illinois Pre-Election Forecast

If Election Today more aggressive + 2016 Polling Error assumes same polling errors
Test Polling Swings see how a swing changes the model

Safe Biden

Win Probability

Biden
Trump
Biden
100%
Polls: 54.7% +14.2%
Trump
0%
Polls: 40.5%
100%



Swing

 
+2.8%
From 2016 Results
+0.8%
From 2016 Polls
 





Polls

 
54.7%
Biden (+14.2%)
40.5%
Trump
 

Date Pollster Rating Voters Sample Size Republican Democrat Diff Diff (Adj) Weight
11/2/20 10/27-11/1 Swayable D- LV 485 Trump
43.6		 Biden
55.1		 +11.5% +11.5% 0.59
11/2/20 10/20-11/1 SurveyMonkey D- LV 4,848 Trump
40		 Biden
58		 +18% +13% 0.27
11/2/20 10/20-11/1 SurveyMonkey D- RV 4,848 Trump
39		 Biden
58		 +19% +14% -
11/2/20 10/26-11/1 Victory Research B/C LV 1,208 Trump
38.2		 Biden
54.1		 +15.9% +15.9% 1.02
11/2/20 10/31-11/1 Research Co. B- LV 450 Trump
38		 Biden
55		 +17% +17.6% 1.07
11/1/20 10/18-10/31 SurveyMonkey D- LV 5,013 Trump
41		 Biden
57		 +16% +11% 0.24
11/1/20 10/18-10/31 SurveyMonkey D- RV 5,013 Trump
39		 Biden
58		 +19% +14% -
10/31/20 10/17-10/30 SurveyMonkey D- LV 4,921 Trump
40		 Biden
58		 +18% +13% 0.21
10/31/20 10/17-10/30 SurveyMonkey D- RV 4,921 Trump
39		 Biden
58		 +19% +14% -
10/30/20 10/16-10/29 SurveyMonkey D- LV 4,782 Trump
41		 Biden
57		 +16% +11% 0.19
10/30/20 10/16-10/29 SurveyMonkey D- RV 4,782 Trump
40		 Biden
58		 +18% +13% -
10/30/20 10/23-10/26 Swayable D- LV 424 Trump
43.1		 Biden
54.2		 +11.1% +11.1% 0.42
10/29/20 10/1-10/28 SurveyMonkey D- LV 8,056 Trump
41		 Biden
57		 +16% +11% 0.06
10/29/20 10/1-10/28 SurveyMonkey D- RV 8,056 Trump
39		 Biden
58		 +19% +14% -
10/28/20 9/30-10/27 SurveyMonkey D- LV 7,810 Trump
41		 Biden
57		 +16% +11% -
10/28/20 9/30-10/27 SurveyMonkey D- RV 7,810 Trump
39		 Biden
58		 +19% +14% -
10/26/20 9/27-10/25 SurveyMonkey D- LV 7,649 Trump
40		 Biden
57		 +17% +12% -
10/26/20 9/27-10/25 SurveyMonkey D- RV 7,649 Trump
39		 Biden
58		 +19% +14% -
10/25/20 9/26-10/24 SurveyMonkey D- LV 7,633 Trump
40		 Biden
57		 +17% +12% -
10/25/20 9/26-10/24 SurveyMonkey D- RV 7,633 Trump
39		 Biden
58		 +19% +14% -
10/24/20 9/25-10/23 SurveyMonkey D- LV 7,609 Trump
40		 Biden
58		 +18% +13% -
10/24/20 9/25-10/23 SurveyMonkey D- RV 7,609 Trump
39		 Biden
58		 +19% +14% -
10/23/20 9/24-10/22 SurveyMonkey D- LV 7,606 Trump
40		 Biden
58		 +18% +13% -
10/23/20 9/24-10/22 SurveyMonkey D- RV 7,606 Trump
38		 Biden
58		 +20% +15% -
10/22/20 9/24-10/21 SurveyMonkey D- LV 7,554 Trump
39		 Biden
58		 +19% +14% -
10/22/20 9/24-10/21 SurveyMonkey D- RV 7,554 Trump
38		 Biden
58		 +20% +15% -
10/21/20 9/23-10/20 SurveyMonkey D- LV 7,436 Trump
40		 Biden
58		 +18% +13% -
10/21/20 9/23-10/20 SurveyMonkey D- RV 7,436 Trump
39		 Biden
58		 +19% +14% -
10/20/20 9/22-10/19 SurveyMonkey D- LV 7,410 Trump
39		 Biden
58		 +19% +14% -
10/20/20 9/22-10/19 SurveyMonkey D- RV 7,410 Trump
38		 Biden
59		 +21% +16% -
10/19/20 9/21-10/18 SurveyMonkey D- LV 7,417 Trump
39		 Biden
59		 +20% +15% -
10/19/20 9/21-10/18 SurveyMonkey D- RV 7,417 Trump
38		 Biden
59		 +21% +16% -
10/18/20 9/19-10/17 SurveyMonkey D- LV 7,432 Trump
39		 Biden
59		 +20% +15% -
10/18/20 9/19-10/17 SurveyMonkey D- RV 7,432 Trump
38		 Biden
59		 +21% +16% -
10/17/20 9/18-10/16 SurveyMonkey D- LV 7,441 Trump
38		 Biden
60		 +22% +17% -
10/17/20 9/18-10/16 SurveyMonkey D- RV 7,441 Trump
37		 Biden
60		 +23% +18% -
10/16/20 9/17-10/15 SurveyMonkey D- LV 7,469 Trump
37		 Biden
60		 +23% +18% -
10/16/20 9/17-10/15 SurveyMonkey D- RV 7,469 Trump
36		 Biden
60		 +24% +19% -
10/15/20 9/17-10/14 SurveyMonkey D- LV 7,232 Trump
38		 Biden
60		 +22% +17% -
10/15/20 9/17-10/14 SurveyMonkey D- RV 7,232 Trump
37		 Biden
60		 +23% +18% -
10/14/20 9/16-10/13 SurveyMonkey D- LV 7,152 Trump
38		 Biden
60		 +22% +17% -
10/14/20 9/16-10/13 SurveyMonkey D- RV 7,152 Trump
37		 Biden
60		 +23% +18% -
10/13/20 9/15-10/12 SurveyMonkey D- LV 7,226 Trump
37		 Biden
60		 +23% +18% -
10/13/20 9/15-10/12 SurveyMonkey D- RV 7,226 Trump
36		 Biden
60		 +24% +19% -
10/3/20 6/8-6/30 SurveyMonkey D- RV 3,000 Trump
36.6		 Biden
60.6		 +24% +19% -
10/3/20 6/8-6/30 SurveyMonkey D- LV 3,000 Trump
38.6		 Biden
59.1		 +20.5% +15.5% -
10/3/20 7/1-7/31 SurveyMonkey D- RV 7,565 Trump
37.2		 Biden
59.8		 +22.6% +17.6% -
10/3/20 7/1-7/31 SurveyMonkey D- LV 7,565 Trump
38.4		 Biden
59.3		 +20.9% +15.9% -
10/3/20 8/1-8/31 SurveyMonkey D- RV 6,773 Trump
37		 Biden
60		 +23% +18% -
10/3/20 8/1-8/31 SurveyMonkey D- LV 6,773 Trump
38		 Biden
60		 +22% +17% -
10/2/20 9/1-9/30 SurveyMonkey D- RV 8,392 Trump
35.5		 Biden
61.1		 +25.6% +20.6% -
10/2/20 9/1-9/30 SurveyMonkey D- LV 8,392 Trump
36.3		 Biden
61.1		 +24.7% +19.7% -
9/28/20 9/23-9/26 Victory Research B/C LV 1,208 Trump
39.8		 Biden
52.9		 +13.1% +13.1% 0.18


Past Results

Year Candidates Republican Democrat Diff
2016 Trump v Clinton 38.8 55.8 +17.1%
2012 Romney v Obama 40.7 57.6 +16.9%
2008 McCain v Obama 36.8 61.9 +25.1%
2004 Bush v Kerry 44.5 54.8 +10.3%
2000 Bush v Gore 42.6 54.6 +12%




Updates

Last Updated: 11/2 11:51 PM EDT
11/2
Illinois polls jumped 2.5% toward Biden (was D+11.7%, now D+14.2%)
6/19
Illinois changed from Likely Biden to Safe Biden