Indiana

If Election Today more aggressive + 2016 Polling Error assumes same polling errors

Likely Trump

Win Probability

Biden
Trump
Biden
3.7%
Polls: 41.1%
Trump
96.3%
Polls: 50.6% +9.5%
3.7%
96.3%



Swing

 
+9.4%
From 2016 Results
+1.3%
From 2016 Polls
 



Testing

Standard Deviation: 2.979 Testing Range: +/- 6.91%






Polls

 
41.1%
Biden
50.6%
Trump (+9.5%)
 

Date Pollster Rating Voters Sample Size Republican Democrat Diff Diff (Adj) Weight
10/26/20 10/18-10/21 Ragnar Research Partners LV 629 Trump
48
Biden
40
+8% +8% 0.56
10/26/20 9/28-10/25 SurveyMonkey D- LV 4,431 Trump
54
Biden
44
+10% +15% 0.12
10/26/20 9/28-10/25 SurveyMonkey D- RV 4,431 Trump
53
Biden
44
+9% +14% -
10/25/20 9/27-10/24 SurveyMonkey D- LV 4,382 Trump
54
Biden
43
+11% +16% 0.1
10/25/20 9/27-10/24 SurveyMonkey D- RV 4,382 Trump
53
Biden
44
+9% +14% -
10/24/20 9/26-10/23 SurveyMonkey D- LV 4,342 Trump
54
Biden
44
+10% +15% 0.08
10/24/20 9/26-10/23 SurveyMonkey D- RV 4,342 Trump
53
Biden
44
+9% +14% -
10/23/20 9/25-10/22 SurveyMonkey D- LV 4,308 Trump
54
Biden
44
+10% +15% 0.06
10/23/20 9/25-10/22 SurveyMonkey D- RV 4,308 Trump
53
Biden
45
+8% +13% -
10/22/20 9/24-10/21 SurveyMonkey D- LV 4,255 Trump
54
Biden
44
+10% +15% 0.04
10/22/20 9/24-10/21 SurveyMonkey D- RV 4,255 Trump
53
Biden
44
+9% +14% -
10/21/20 9/23-10/20 SurveyMonkey D- LV 4,121 Trump
55
Biden
43
+12% +17% 0.03
10/21/20 9/23-10/20 SurveyMonkey D- RV 4,121 Trump
54
Biden
44
+10% +15% -
10/20/20 9/22-10/19 SurveyMonkey D- LV 4,001 Trump
54
Biden
44
+10% +15% -
10/20/20 9/22-10/19 SurveyMonkey D- RV 4,001 Trump
54
Biden
44
+10% +15% -
10/19/20 9/21-10/18 SurveyMonkey D- LV 3,913 Trump
54
Biden
44
+10% +15% -
10/19/20 9/21-10/18 SurveyMonkey D- RV 3,913 Trump
53
Biden
44
+9% +14% -
10/18/20 9/20-10/17 SurveyMonkey D- LV 3,857 Trump
53
Biden
45
+8% +13% -
10/18/20 9/20-10/17 SurveyMonkey D- RV 3,857 Trump
53
Biden
45
+8% +13% -
10/17/20 9/19-10/16 SurveyMonkey D- LV 3,774 Trump
53
Biden
45
+8% +13% -
10/17/20 9/19-10/16 SurveyMonkey D- RV 3,774 Trump
53
Biden
45
+8% +13% -
10/16/20 9/18-10/15 SurveyMonkey D- LV 3,547 Trump
53
Biden
45
+8% +13% -
10/16/20 9/18-10/15 SurveyMonkey D- RV 3,547 Trump
53
Biden
45
+8% +13% -
10/15/20 9/17-10/14 SurveyMonkey D- LV 3,307 Trump
53
Biden
45
+8% +13% -
10/15/20 9/17-10/14 SurveyMonkey D- RV 3,307 Trump
53
Biden
45
+8% +13% -
10/14/20 9/16-10/13 SurveyMonkey D- LV 3,185 Trump
54
Biden
44
+10% +15% -
10/14/20 9/16-10/13 SurveyMonkey D- RV 3,185 Trump
53
Biden
44
+9% +14% -
10/14/20 10/8-10/13 SurveyUSA A LV 685 Trump
49
Biden
42
+7% +7.2% 0.71
10/13/20 9/15-10/12 SurveyMonkey D- LV 3,103 Trump
55
Biden
43
+12% +17% -
10/13/20 9/15-10/12 SurveyMonkey D- RV 3,103 Trump
54
Biden
44
+10% +15% -
10/3/20 6/8-6/30 SurveyMonkey D- RV 929 Trump
55.7
Biden
40.9
+14.8% +19.8% -
10/3/20 6/8-6/30 SurveyMonkey D- LV 929 Trump
57.2
Biden
40.2
+17% +22% -
10/3/20 7/1-7/31 SurveyMonkey D- RV 2,175 Trump
54.9
Biden
43.2
+11.6% +16.6% -
10/3/20 7/1-7/31 SurveyMonkey D- LV 2,175 Trump
56
Biden
42.6
+13.4% +18.4% -
10/3/20 8/1-8/31 SurveyMonkey D- RV 1,672 Trump
53.8
Biden
43.9
+9.9% +14.9% -
10/3/20 8/1-8/31 SurveyMonkey D- LV 1,672 Trump
55
Biden
43
+12% +17% -
10/2/20 9/1-9/30 SurveyMonkey D- RV 2,367 Trump
52
Biden
45.1
+6.9% +11.9% -
10/2/20 9/1-9/30 SurveyMonkey D- LV 2,367 Trump
52.6
Biden
44.7
+7.9% +12.9% -
9/10/20 9/3-9/7 Change Research C- LV 1,033 Trump
53
Biden
39
+14% +15.2% -
8/5/20 7/24-8/2 Morning Consult B/C LV 900 Trump
55
Biden
38
+17% +17.2% -
5/28/20 5/21-5/23 Victoria Research & Consulting B/C LV 894 Trump
49
Biden
39
+10% +10.2% -
4/19/20 4/10-4/13 Change Research C- LV 1,021 Trump
52
Biden
39
+13% +14.2% -


Past Results

Year Candidates Republican Democrat Diff
2016 Trump v Clinton 56.8 37.9 +18.9%
2012 Romney v Obama 54.1 43.9 +10.2%
2008 McCain v Obama 48.9 50 +1%
2004 Bush v Kerry 59.9 39.3 +20.7%
2000 Bush v Gore 56.7 41 +15.6%




Updates

Last Updated: 10/28 9:39 AM EDT
10/26
Indiana changed from Safe Trump to Likely Trump
10/21
Indiana changed from Likely Trump to Safe Trump
10/14
Indiana polls jumped 5.7% toward Biden (was R+15.4%, now R+9.7%)
Indiana changed from Safe Trump to Likely Trump
10/3
Indiana polls jumped 2.3% toward Biden (was R+17.7%, now R+15.4%)
9/10
Indiana polls jumped 1.6% toward Biden (was R+18.7%, now R+17.1%)