Indiana

Live Election Night Forecast

Last Updated: 11/8 11:56 AM EDT
Winner
Trump
Trump

Election Night Forecast Changes

Here you can see how the forecast has in Indiana changed throughout the evening (and perhaps coming days?), all times are EST.




Indiana Pre-Election Forecast

If Election Today more aggressive + 2016 Polling Error assumes same polling errors
Test Polling Swings see how a swing changes the model

Safe Trump

Win Probability

Biden
Trump
Biden
0%
Polls: 41.8%
Trump
100%
Polls: 53% +11.2%
100%



Swing

 
+7.7%
From 2016 Results
+0.4%
From 2016 Polls
 



Testing

Standard Deviation: 1.757 Testing Range: +/- 4.14%






Polls

 
41.8%
Biden
53%
Trump (+11.2%)
 

Date Pollster Rating Voters Sample Size Republican Democrat Diff Diff (Adj) Weight
11/2/20 10/27-11/1 Swayable D- LV 264 Trump
55.2		 Biden
43		 +12.2% +12.2% 0.55
11/2/20 10/20-11/1 SurveyMonkey D- LV 2,392 Trump
54		 Biden
44		 +10% +15% 0.25
11/2/20 10/20-11/1 SurveyMonkey D- RV 2,392 Trump
54		 Biden
44		 +10% +15% -
11/2/20 10/22-10/31 Morning Consult B/C LV 1,147 Trump
53.4		 Biden
42		 +11.4% +11.6% 0.94
11/1/20 10/18-10/31 SurveyMonkey D- LV 2,545 Trump
54		 Biden
44		 +10% +15% 0.22
11/1/20 10/18-10/31 SurveyMonkey D- RV 2,545 Trump
53		 Biden
44		 +9% +14% -
10/31/20 10/17-10/30 SurveyMonkey D- LV 2,536 Trump
54		 Biden
44		 +10% +15% 0.2
10/31/20 10/17-10/30 SurveyMonkey D- RV 2,536 Trump
53		 Biden
45		 +8% +13% -
10/30/20 10/15-10/29 SurveyMonkey D- LV 2,570 Trump
54		 Biden
44		 +10% +15% 0.16
10/30/20 10/15-10/29 SurveyMonkey D- RV 2,570 Trump
53		 Biden
45		 +8% +13% -
10/30/20 10/23-10/26 Swayable D- LV 301 Trump
52.9		 Biden
42.3		 +10.6% +10.6% 0.41
10/29/20 10/1-10/28 SurveyMonkey D- LV 4,734 Trump
55		 Biden
43		 +12% +17% -
10/29/20 10/1-10/28 SurveyMonkey D- RV 4,734 Trump
54		 Biden
44		 +10% +15% -
10/28/20 9/30-10/27 SurveyMonkey D- LV 4,585 Trump
55		 Biden
43		 +12% +17% -
10/28/20 9/30-10/27 SurveyMonkey D- RV 4,585 Trump
54		 Biden
44		 +10% +15% -
10/26/20 10/18-10/21 Ragnar Research Partners LV 629 Trump
48		 Biden
40		 +8% +8% 0.39
10/26/20 9/28-10/25 SurveyMonkey D- LV 4,431 Trump
54		 Biden
44		 +10% +15% -
10/26/20 9/28-10/25 SurveyMonkey D- RV 4,431 Trump
53		 Biden
44		 +9% +14% -
10/25/20 9/27-10/24 SurveyMonkey D- LV 4,382 Trump
54		 Biden
43		 +11% +16% -
10/25/20 9/27-10/24 SurveyMonkey D- RV 4,382 Trump
53		 Biden
44		 +9% +14% -
10/24/20 9/26-10/23 SurveyMonkey D- LV 4,342 Trump
54		 Biden
44		 +10% +15% -
10/24/20 9/26-10/23 SurveyMonkey D- RV 4,342 Trump
53		 Biden
44		 +9% +14% -
10/23/20 9/25-10/22 SurveyMonkey D- LV 4,308 Trump
54		 Biden
44		 +10% +15% -
10/23/20 9/25-10/22 SurveyMonkey D- RV 4,308 Trump
53		 Biden
45		 +8% +13% -
10/22/20 9/24-10/21 SurveyMonkey D- LV 4,255 Trump
54		 Biden
44		 +10% +15% -
10/22/20 9/24-10/21 SurveyMonkey D- RV 4,255 Trump
53		 Biden
44		 +9% +14% -
10/21/20 9/23-10/20 SurveyMonkey D- LV 4,121 Trump
55		 Biden
43		 +12% +17% -
10/21/20 9/23-10/20 SurveyMonkey D- RV 4,121 Trump
54		 Biden
44		 +10% +15% -
10/20/20 9/22-10/19 SurveyMonkey D- LV 4,001 Trump
54		 Biden
44		 +10% +15% -
10/20/20 9/22-10/19 SurveyMonkey D- RV 4,001 Trump
54		 Biden
44		 +10% +15% -
10/19/20 9/21-10/18 SurveyMonkey D- LV 3,913 Trump
54		 Biden
44		 +10% +15% -
10/19/20 9/21-10/18 SurveyMonkey D- RV 3,913 Trump
53		 Biden
44		 +9% +14% -
10/18/20 9/20-10/17 SurveyMonkey D- LV 3,857 Trump
53		 Biden
45		 +8% +13% -
10/18/20 9/20-10/17 SurveyMonkey D- RV 3,857 Trump
53		 Biden
45		 +8% +13% -
10/17/20 9/19-10/16 SurveyMonkey D- LV 3,774 Trump
53		 Biden
45		 +8% +13% -
10/17/20 9/19-10/16 SurveyMonkey D- RV 3,774 Trump
53		 Biden
45		 +8% +13% -
10/16/20 9/18-10/15 SurveyMonkey D- LV 3,547 Trump
53		 Biden
45		 +8% +13% -
10/16/20 9/18-10/15 SurveyMonkey D- RV 3,547 Trump
53		 Biden
45		 +8% +13% -
10/15/20 9/17-10/14 SurveyMonkey D- LV 3,307 Trump
53		 Biden
45		 +8% +13% -
10/15/20 9/17-10/14 SurveyMonkey D- RV 3,307 Trump
53		 Biden
45		 +8% +13% -
10/14/20 9/16-10/13 SurveyMonkey D- LV 3,185 Trump
54		 Biden
44		 +10% +15% -
10/14/20 9/16-10/13 SurveyMonkey D- RV 3,185 Trump
53		 Biden
44		 +9% +14% -
10/14/20 10/8-10/13 SurveyUSA A LV 685 Trump
49		 Biden
42		 +7% +7.2% 0.59
10/13/20 9/15-10/12 SurveyMonkey D- LV 3,103 Trump
55		 Biden
43		 +12% +17% -
10/13/20 9/15-10/12 SurveyMonkey D- RV 3,103 Trump
54		 Biden
44		 +10% +15% -
10/3/20 6/8-6/30 SurveyMonkey D- RV 929 Trump
55.7		 Biden
40.9		 +14.8% +19.8% -
10/3/20 6/8-6/30 SurveyMonkey D- LV 929 Trump
57.2		 Biden
40.2		 +17% +22% -
10/3/20 7/1-7/31 SurveyMonkey D- RV 2,175 Trump
54.9		 Biden
43.2		 +11.6% +16.6% -
10/3/20 7/1-7/31 SurveyMonkey D- LV 2,175 Trump
56		 Biden
42.6		 +13.4% +18.4% -
10/3/20 8/1-8/31 SurveyMonkey D- RV 1,672 Trump
53.8		 Biden
43.9		 +9.9% +14.9% -
10/3/20 8/1-8/31 SurveyMonkey D- LV 1,672 Trump
55		 Biden
43		 +12% +17% -
10/2/20 9/1-9/30 SurveyMonkey D- RV 2,367 Trump
52		 Biden
45.1		 +6.9% +11.9% -
10/2/20 9/1-9/30 SurveyMonkey D- LV 2,367 Trump
52.6		 Biden
44.7		 +7.9% +12.9% -
9/10/20 9/3-9/7 Change Research C- LV 1,033 Trump
53		 Biden
39		 +14% +15.2% -
8/5/20 7/24-8/2 Morning Consult B/C LV 900 Trump
55		 Biden
38		 +17% +17.2% -
5/28/20 5/21-5/23 Victoria Research & Consulting B/C LV 894 Trump
49		 Biden
39		 +10% +10.2% -
4/19/20 4/10-4/13 Change Research C- LV 1,021 Trump
52		 Biden
39		 +13% +14.2% -


Past Results

Year Candidates Republican Democrat Diff
2016 Trump v Clinton 56.8 37.9 +18.9%
2012 Romney v Obama 54.1 43.9 +10.2%
2008 McCain v Obama 48.9 50 +1%
2004 Bush v Kerry 59.9 39.3 +20.7%
2000 Bush v Gore 56.7 41 +15.6%




Updates

Last Updated: 11/3 2:36 AM EDT
10/30
Indiana changed from Likely Trump to Safe Trump
10/26
Indiana changed from Safe Trump to Likely Trump
10/21
Indiana changed from Likely Trump to Safe Trump
10/14
Indiana polls jumped 5.7% toward Biden (was R+15.4%, now R+9.7%)
Indiana changed from Safe Trump to Likely Trump
10/3
Indiana polls jumped 2.3% toward Biden (was R+17.7%, now R+15.4%)