Iowa

If Election Today more aggressive + 2016 Polling Error assumes same polling errors

Toss Up

Win Probability

Biden
Trump
Biden
51.1%
Polls: 47.2% +0.7%
Trump
48.9%
Polls: 46.5%
51.1%
48.9%



Swing

 
+10.2%
From 2016 Results
+2.9%
From 2016 Polls
 



Testing

Standard Deviation: 2.565 Testing Range: +/- 5.98%




Tipping Point



1.1%
of the time





Polls

 
47.2%
Biden (+0.7%)
46.5%
Trump
 

Date Pollster Rating Voters Sample Size Republican Democrat Diff Diff (Adj) Weight
10/28/20 9/30-10/27 SurveyMonkey D- LV 2,918 Trump
49
Biden
49
+0% +5% -
10/28/20 9/30-10/27 SurveyMonkey D- RV 2,918 Trump
48
Biden
50
+2% +3% -
10/27/20 10/21-10/24 RABA Research B/C LV 693 Trump
46
Biden
50
+4% +3.6% 0.91
10/26/20 9/28-10/25 SurveyMonkey D- LV 2,768 Trump
49
Biden
49
+0% +5% -
10/26/20 9/28-10/25 SurveyMonkey D- RV 2,768 Trump
48
Biden
50
+2% +3% -
10/25/20 9/26-10/24 SurveyMonkey D- LV 2,760 Trump
49
Biden
49
+0% +5% -
10/25/20 9/26-10/24 SurveyMonkey D- RV 2,760 Trump
48
Biden
50
+2% +3% -
10/24/20 9/25-10/23 SurveyMonkey D- LV 2,738 Trump
50
Biden
49
+1% +6% -
10/24/20 9/25-10/23 SurveyMonkey D- RV 2,738 Trump
49
Biden
49
+0% +5% -
10/23/20 9/25-10/22 SurveyMonkey D- LV 2,706 Trump
49
Biden
49
+0% +5% -
10/23/20 9/25-10/22 SurveyMonkey D- RV 2,706 Trump
49
Biden
49
+0% +5% -
10/23/20 10/5-10/8 Opinion Insight A/B LV 800 Trump
45
Biden
47
+2% +2.6% 0.54
10/23/20 8/30-9/2 Opinion Insight A/B LV 800 Trump
50
Biden
43
+7% +6.4% 0.07
10/22/20 10/15-10/21 RMG Research B/C LV 800 Trump
47
Biden
47
+0% +0% 0.79
10/22/20 9/24-10/21 SurveyMonkey D- LV 2,654 Trump
50
Biden
49
+1% +6% -
10/22/20 9/24-10/21 SurveyMonkey D- RV 2,654 Trump
49
Biden
49
+0% +5% -
10/21/20 9/23-10/20 SurveyMonkey D- LV 2,581 Trump
50
Biden
49
+1% +6% -
10/21/20 9/23-10/20 SurveyMonkey D- RV 2,581 Trump
49
Biden
49
+0% +5% -
10/21/20 10/19-10/21 Emerson College A- LV 435 Trump
48
Biden
48.1
+0.1% +0.3% 0.94
10/21/20 10/18-10/20 Siena College/The New York Times Upshot A+ LV 753 Trump
43
Biden
46
+3% +3.4% 1.02
10/21/20 10/15-10/19 Monmouth University A+ LV 501 Trump
46
Biden
51
+5% +3.6% 0.42
10/21/20 10/15-10/19 Monmouth University A+ LV 501 Trump
47
Biden
50
+3% +1.6% 0.42
10/21/20 10/15-10/19 Monmouth University A+ RV 501 Trump
48
Biden
47
+1% +2.4% -
10/20/20 9/22-10/19 SurveyMonkey D- LV 2,539 Trump
49
Biden
49
+0% +5% -
10/20/20 9/22-10/19 SurveyMonkey D- RV 2,539 Trump
49
Biden
49
+0% +5% -
10/20/20 10/18-10/19 InsiderAdvantage B- LV 400 Trump
44.6
Biden
45.1
+0.5% +0.7% 0.77
10/19/20 9/21-10/18 SurveyMonkey D- LV 2,460 Trump
48
Biden
51
+3% +2% -
10/19/20 9/21-10/18 SurveyMonkey D- RV 2,460 Trump
49
Biden
49
+0% +5% -
10/18/20 9/20-10/17 SurveyMonkey D- LV 2,383 Trump
49
Biden
50
+1% +4% -
10/18/20 9/20-10/17 SurveyMonkey D- RV 2,383 Trump
50
Biden
48
+2% +7% -
10/17/20 9/19-10/16 SurveyMonkey D- LV 2,358 Trump
49
Biden
50
+1% +4% -
10/17/20 9/19-10/16 SurveyMonkey D- RV 2,358 Trump
50
Biden
48
+2% +7% -
10/16/20 9/18-10/15 SurveyMonkey D- LV 2,278 Trump
49
Biden
50
+1% +4% -
10/16/20 9/18-10/15 SurveyMonkey D- RV 2,278 Trump
49
Biden
48
+1% +6% -
10/15/20 9/17-10/14 SurveyMonkey D- LV 2,138 Trump
49
Biden
49
+0% +5% -
10/15/20 9/17-10/14 SurveyMonkey D- RV 2,138 Trump
50
Biden
48
+2% +7% -
10/15/20 10/8-10/11 Data for Progress B- LV 822 Trump
48
Biden
47
+1% +1% 0.53
10/14/20 9/16-10/13 SurveyMonkey D- LV 2,058 Trump
49
Biden
49
+0% +5% -
10/14/20 9/16-10/13 SurveyMonkey D- RV 2,058 Trump
49
Biden
48
+1% +6% -
10/14/20 10/10-10/13 David Binder Research B/C LV 200 Trump
50
Biden
44
+6% +6% 0.55
10/13/20 9/14-10/12 SurveyMonkey D- LV 1,998 Trump
49
Biden
49
+0% +5% -
10/13/20 9/14-10/12 SurveyMonkey D- RV 1,998 Trump
50
Biden
48
+2% +7% -
10/11/20 10/6-10/9 YouGov B LV 1,035 Trump
49
Biden
49
+0% +0.4% 0.52
10/7/20 10/1-10/5 Quinnipiac University B+ LV 1,205 Trump
45
Biden
50
+5% +4.8% 0.45
10/7/20 10/3-10/6 Civiqs B/C LV 756 Trump
47
Biden
48
+1% +1% 0.38
10/3/20 6/8-6/30 SurveyMonkey D- RV 455 Trump
51.6
Biden
45.6
+6% +11% -
10/3/20 6/8-6/30 SurveyMonkey D- LV 455 Trump
49.7
Biden
47.9
+1.8% +6.8% -
10/3/20 7/1-7/31 SurveyMonkey D- RV 1,095 Trump
54
Biden
44.1
+9.9% +14.9% -
10/3/20 7/1-7/31 SurveyMonkey D- LV 1,095 Trump
53.6
Biden
45
+8.7% +13.7% -
10/3/20 8/1-8/31 SurveyMonkey D- RV 983 Trump
52.2
Biden
45.7
+6.5% +11.5% -
10/3/20 8/1-8/31 SurveyMonkey D- LV 983 Trump
53
Biden
46
+7% +12% -
10/2/20 9/1-9/30 SurveyMonkey D- RV 1,276 Trump
51.8
Biden
46
+5.8% +10.8% -
10/2/20 9/1-9/30 SurveyMonkey D- LV 1,276 Trump
51.9
Biden
46.4
+5.6% +10.6% -
10/2/20 9/24-9/27 Hart Research Associates B/C LV 400 Trump
49
Biden
47
+2% +3.4% 0.21
10/1/20 9/23-9/28 Data for Progress B- LV 743 Trump
47
Biden
44
+3% +3% -
10/1/20 9/23-9/28 Data for Progress B- LV 743 Trump
50
Biden
45
+5% +5% -
9/30/20 9/23-9/26 RABA Research B/C LV 780 Trump
46
Biden
48
+2% +1.6% 0.2
9/24/20 9/18-9/22 Monmouth University A+ LV 402 Trump
49
Biden
46
+3% +4.4% 0.11
9/24/20 9/18-9/22 Monmouth University A+ LV 402 Trump
49
Biden
46
+3% +4.4% 0.11
9/24/20 9/18-9/22 Monmouth University A+ RV 402 Trump
50
Biden
44
+6% +7.4% -
9/24/20 9/16-9/22 Siena College/The New York Times Upshot A+ LV 501 Trump
42
Biden
45
+3% +3.4% 0.33
9/22/20 9/14-9/17 Selzer & Co. A+ LV 658 Trump
47
Biden
47
+0% +0.2% 0.29
9/10/20 8/30-9/5 Fabrizio Ward/Hart Research Associates LV 800 Trump
47
Biden
45
+2% +2% -
8/6/20 7/27-7/30 RMG Research B/C RV 500 Trump
41
Biden
40
+1% +1% -
8/6/20 7/30-7/31 David Binder Research B/C LV 200 Trump
43
Biden
49
+6% +6% -
8/6/20 7/24-8/2 Data for Progress B- LV 1,101 Trump
46
Biden
45
+1% +1% -
8/6/20 7/24-8/2 Data for Progress B- LV 1,101 Trump
44
Biden
42
+2% +2% -
8/5/20 7/30-8/3 Monmouth University A+ LV 401 Trump
47
Biden
47
+0% +1.4% -
8/5/20 7/30-8/3 Monmouth University A+ LV 401 Trump
48
Biden
46
+2% +3.4% -
8/5/20 7/30-8/3 Monmouth University A+ RV 401 Trump
48
Biden
45
+3% +4.4% -
7/28/20 7/23-7/24 Public Policy Polling B V 1,118 Trump
48
Biden
47
+1% +1.4% -
7/22/20 7/11-7/16 Spry Strategies B/C LV 701 Trump
45.9
Biden
47.5
+1.6% +2% -
7/10/20 4/13-4/16 GBAO B/C LV 500 Trump
48
Biden
45
+3% +3% -
6/15/20 6/7-6/10 Selzer & Co. A+ LV 674 Trump
44
Biden
43
+1% +1.2% -
6/9/20 6/6-6/8 Civiqs B/C RV 865 Trump
46
Biden
46
+0% +0% -
6/5/20 6/3-6/4 Public Policy Polling B V 963 Trump
48
Biden
47
+1% +1.4% -
5/4/20 4/30-5/1 Public Policy Polling B V 1,222 Trump
48
Biden
46
+2% +2.4% -
3/11/20 3/2-3/5 Selzer & Co. A+ LV 667 Trump
51
Biden
41
+10% +10.2% -
1/25/20 1/20-1/23 Siena College/The New York Times Upshot A+ RV 1,689 Trump
46
Biden
44
+2% +1.6% 0.13
1/8/20 12/29-12/31 Public Policy Polling B V 964 Trump
49
Biden
46
+3% +3.4% -
12/10/19 12/7-12/10 Emerson College A- RV 1,043 Trump
49
Biden
45
+4% +4.4% -
11/4/19 10/25-10/30 Siena College/The New York Times Upshot A+ RV 1,435 Trump
45.5
Biden
44.2
+1.2% +0.8% 0.12
10/17/19 10/13-10/16 Emerson College A- RV 888 Trump
50.6
Biden
49.4
+1.2% +1.6% -
5/11/19 4/27-4/30 WPA Intelligence B/C LV 200 Trump
49
Biden
44
+5% +4.2% -
3/24/19 3/21-3/24 Emerson College A- RV 707 Trump
47.2
Biden
52.8
+5.6% +5.2% -
2/2/19 1/30-2/2 Emerson College A- RV 831 Trump
49.4
Biden
50.6
+1.2% +0.8% -


Past Results

Year Candidates Republican Democrat Diff
2016 Trump v Clinton 51.2 41.7 +9.4%
2012 Romney v Obama 46.2 52 +5.8%
2008 McCain v Obama 44.4 53.9 +9.5%
2004 Bush v Kerry 49.9 49.2 +0.7%
2000 Bush v Gore 48.2 48.5 +0.3%




Updates

Last Updated: 10/28 11:34 AM EDT
10/27
Iowa projected winner changed to Biden (50.5% chance of winning)
10/21
Iowa polling average leader changed to Biden (+0.1%)
10/13
Iowa polling average leader changed to Trump (+0.1%)
10/9
Iowa polling average leader changed to Biden (+0.1%)