Iowa

Live Election Night Forecast

Last Updated: 11/5 3:30 PM EDT
Winner
Trump
Trump

Election Night Forecast Changes

Here you can see how the forecast has in Iowa changed throughout the evening (and perhaps coming days?), all times are EST.




Iowa Pre-Election Forecast

If Election Today more aggressive + 2016 Polling Error assumes same polling errors
Test Polling Swings see how a swing changes the model

Toss Up

Win Probability

Biden
Trump
Biden
43.1%
Polls: 46.8%
Trump
56.9%
Polls: 47.5% +0.7%
43.1%
56.9%



Swing

 
+8.8%
From 2016 Results
+1.5%
From 2016 Polls
 



Testing

Standard Deviation: 2.235 Testing Range: +/- 5.34%




Tipping Point



1.1%
of the time





Polls

 
46.8%
Biden
47.5%
Trump (+0.7%)
 

Date Pollster Rating Voters Sample Size Republican Democrat Diff Diff (Adj) Weight
11/2/20 10/29-11/1 Change Research C- LV 1,084 Trump
47		 Biden
47		 0% +1.2% 0.97
11/2/20 10/27-11/1 Data for Progress B- LV 951 Trump
49		 Biden
47		 +2% +2% 1.04
11/2/20 10/20-11/1 SurveyMonkey D- LV 1,330 Trump
50		 Biden
49		 +1% +6% 0.15
11/2/20 10/20-11/1 SurveyMonkey D- RV 1,330 Trump
49		 Biden
50		 +1% +4% -
11/2/20 11/1-11/2 Public Policy Polling B V 871 Trump
48		 Biden
49		 +1% +0.6% 1.19
11/1/20 10/29-11/1 Civiqs B/C LV 853 Trump
48		 Biden
49		 +1% +1% 1.05
11/1/20 10/17-10/31 SurveyMonkey D- LV 1,484 Trump
50		 Biden
49		 +1% +6% 0.11
11/1/20 10/17-10/31 SurveyMonkey D- RV 1,484 Trump
48		 Biden
50		 +2% +3% -
11/1/20 10/30-10/30 InsiderAdvantage B- LV 400 Trump
47.8		 Biden
46.1		 +1.7% +2.9% 0.94
11/1/20 10/29-10/31 Emerson College A- LV 604 Trump
48.6		 Biden
47.4		 +1.2% +1.6% 1.1
10/31/20 10/17-10/30 SurveyMonkey D- LV 1,490 Trump
50		 Biden
49		 +1% +6% 0.11
10/31/20 10/17-10/30 SurveyMonkey D- RV 1,490 Trump
48		 Biden
50		 +2% +3% -
10/31/20 10/26-10/29 Selzer & Co. A+ LV 814 Trump
48		 Biden
41		 +7% +7.2% 1.12
10/30/20 10/16-10/29 SurveyMonkey D- LV 1,500 Trump
50		 Biden
49		 +1% +6% 0.07
10/30/20 10/16-10/29 SurveyMonkey D- RV 1,500 Trump
48		 Biden
50		 +2% +3% -
10/29/20 10/1-10/28 SurveyMonkey D- LV 3,005 Trump
50		 Biden
49		 +1% +6% -
10/29/20 10/1-10/28 SurveyMonkey D- RV 3,005 Trump
48		 Biden
50		 +2% +3% -
10/29/20 10/23-10/27 Quinnipiac University B+ LV 1,225 Trump
47		 Biden
46		 +1% +1.2% 0.9
10/28/20 9/30-10/27 SurveyMonkey D- LV 2,918 Trump
49		 Biden
49		 0% +5% -
10/28/20 9/30-10/27 SurveyMonkey D- RV 2,918 Trump
48		 Biden
50		 +2% +3% -
10/27/20 10/21-10/24 RABA Research B/C LV 693 Trump
46		 Biden
50		 +4% +3.6% 0.71
10/26/20 9/28-10/25 SurveyMonkey D- LV 2,768 Trump
49		 Biden
49		 0% +5% -
10/26/20 9/28-10/25 SurveyMonkey D- RV 2,768 Trump
48		 Biden
50		 +2% +3% -
10/25/20 9/26-10/24 SurveyMonkey D- LV 2,760 Trump
49		 Biden
49		 0% +5% -
10/25/20 9/26-10/24 SurveyMonkey D- RV 2,760 Trump
48		 Biden
50		 +2% +3% -
10/24/20 9/25-10/23 SurveyMonkey D- LV 2,738 Trump
50		 Biden
49		 +1% +6% -
10/24/20 9/25-10/23 SurveyMonkey D- RV 2,738 Trump
49		 Biden
49		 0% +5% -
10/23/20 9/25-10/22 SurveyMonkey D- LV 2,706 Trump
49		 Biden
49		 0% +5% -
10/23/20 9/25-10/22 SurveyMonkey D- RV 2,706 Trump
49		 Biden
49		 0% +5% -
10/23/20 10/5-10/8 Opinion Insight A/B LV 800 Trump
45		 Biden
47		 +2% +2.6% 0.4
10/23/20 8/30-9/2 Opinion Insight A/B LV 800 Trump
50		 Biden
43		 +7% +6.4% -
10/22/20 10/15-10/21 RMG Research B/C LV 800 Trump
47		 Biden
47		 0% 0% 0.56
10/22/20 9/24-10/21 SurveyMonkey D- LV 2,654 Trump
50		 Biden
49		 +1% +6% -
10/22/20 9/24-10/21 SurveyMonkey D- RV 2,654 Trump
49		 Biden
49		 0% +5% -
10/21/20 9/23-10/20 SurveyMonkey D- LV 2,581 Trump
50		 Biden
49		 +1% +6% -
10/21/20 9/23-10/20 SurveyMonkey D- RV 2,581 Trump
49		 Biden
49		 0% +5% -
10/21/20 10/19-10/21 Emerson College A- LV 435 Trump
48		 Biden
48.1		 +0.1% +0.3% 0.74
10/21/20 10/18-10/20 Siena College/The New York Times Upshot A+ LV 753 Trump
43		 Biden
46		 +3% +3.4% 0.79
10/21/20 10/15-10/19 Monmouth University A+ LV 501 Trump
46		 Biden
51		 +5% +3.6% 0.29
10/21/20 10/15-10/19 Monmouth University A+ LV 501 Trump
47		 Biden
50		 +3% +1.6% 0.29
10/21/20 10/15-10/19 Monmouth University A+ RV 501 Trump
48		 Biden
47		 +1% +2.4% -
10/20/20 9/22-10/19 SurveyMonkey D- LV 2,539 Trump
49		 Biden
49		 0% +5% -
10/20/20 9/22-10/19 SurveyMonkey D- RV 2,539 Trump
49		 Biden
49		 0% +5% -
10/20/20 10/18-10/19 InsiderAdvantage B- LV 400 Trump
44.6		 Biden
45.1		 +0.5% +0.7% 0.6
10/19/20 9/21-10/18 SurveyMonkey D- LV 2,460 Trump
48		 Biden
51		 +3% +2% -
10/19/20 9/21-10/18 SurveyMonkey D- RV 2,460 Trump
49		 Biden
49		 0% +5% -
10/18/20 9/20-10/17 SurveyMonkey D- LV 2,383 Trump
49		 Biden
50		 +1% +4% -
10/18/20 9/20-10/17 SurveyMonkey D- RV 2,383 Trump
50		 Biden
48		 +2% +7% -
10/17/20 9/19-10/16 SurveyMonkey D- LV 2,358 Trump
49		 Biden
50		 +1% +4% -
10/17/20 9/19-10/16 SurveyMonkey D- RV 2,358 Trump
50		 Biden
48		 +2% +7% -
10/16/20 9/18-10/15 SurveyMonkey D- LV 2,278 Trump
49		 Biden
50		 +1% +4% -
10/16/20 9/18-10/15 SurveyMonkey D- RV 2,278 Trump
49		 Biden
48		 +1% +6% -
10/15/20 9/17-10/14 SurveyMonkey D- LV 2,138 Trump
49		 Biden
49		 0% +5% -
10/15/20 9/17-10/14 SurveyMonkey D- RV 2,138 Trump
50		 Biden
48		 +2% +7% -
10/15/20 10/8-10/11 Data for Progress B- LV 822 Trump
48		 Biden
47		 +1% +1% 0.38
10/14/20 9/16-10/13 SurveyMonkey D- LV 2,058 Trump
49		 Biden
49		 0% +5% -
10/14/20 9/16-10/13 SurveyMonkey D- RV 2,058 Trump
49		 Biden
48		 +1% +6% -
10/14/20 10/10-10/13 David Binder Research B/C LV 200 Trump
50		 Biden
44		 +6% +6% 0.39
10/13/20 9/14-10/12 SurveyMonkey D- LV 1,998 Trump
49		 Biden
49		 0% +5% -
10/13/20 9/14-10/12 SurveyMonkey D- RV 1,998 Trump
50		 Biden
48		 +2% +7% -
10/11/20 10/6-10/9 YouGov B LV 1,035 Trump
49		 Biden
49		 0% +0.4% 0.37
10/7/20 10/1-10/5 Quinnipiac University B+ LV 1,205 Trump
45		 Biden
50		 +5% +4.8% 0.31
10/7/20 10/3-10/6 Civiqs B/C LV 756 Trump
47		 Biden
48		 +1% +1% 0.25
10/3/20 6/8-6/30 SurveyMonkey D- RV 455 Trump
51.6		 Biden
45.6		 +6% +11% -
10/3/20 6/8-6/30 SurveyMonkey D- LV 455 Trump
49.7		 Biden
47.9		 +1.8% +6.8% -
10/3/20 7/1-7/31 SurveyMonkey D- RV 1,095 Trump
54		 Biden
44.1		 +9.9% +14.9% -
10/3/20 7/1-7/31 SurveyMonkey D- LV 1,095 Trump
53.6		 Biden
45		 +8.7% +13.7% -
10/3/20 8/1-8/31 SurveyMonkey D- RV 983 Trump
52.2		 Biden
45.7		 +6.5% +11.5% -
10/3/20 8/1-8/31 SurveyMonkey D- LV 983 Trump
53		 Biden
46		 +7% +12% -
10/2/20 9/1-9/30 SurveyMonkey D- RV 1,276 Trump
51.8		 Biden
46		 +5.8% +10.8% -
10/2/20 9/1-9/30 SurveyMonkey D- LV 1,276 Trump
51.9		 Biden
46.4		 +5.6% +10.6% -
10/2/20 9/24-9/27 Hart Research Associates B/C LV 400 Trump
49		 Biden
47		 +2% +3.4% 0.09
10/1/20 9/23-9/28 Data for Progress B- LV 743 Trump
47		 Biden
44		 +3% +3% -
10/1/20 9/23-9/28 Data for Progress B- LV 743 Trump
50		 Biden
45		 +5% +5% -
9/30/20 9/23-9/26 RABA Research B/C LV 780 Trump
46		 Biden
48		 +2% +1.6% 0.08
9/24/20 9/18-9/22 Monmouth University A+ LV 402 Trump
49		 Biden
46		 +3% +4.4% -
9/24/20 9/18-9/22 Monmouth University A+ LV 402 Trump
49		 Biden
46		 +3% +4.4% -
9/24/20 9/18-9/22 Monmouth University A+ RV 402 Trump
50		 Biden
44		 +6% +7.4% -
9/24/20 9/16-9/22 Siena College/The New York Times Upshot A+ LV 501 Trump
42		 Biden
45		 +3% +3.4% 0.23
9/22/20 9/14-9/17 Selzer & Co. A+ LV 658 Trump
47		 Biden
47		 0% +0.2% 0.2
9/10/20 8/30-9/5 Fabrizio Ward/Hart Research Associates LV 800 Trump
47		 Biden
45		 +2% +2% -
8/6/20 7/27-7/30 RMG Research B/C RV 500 Trump
41		 Biden
40		 +1% +1% -
8/6/20 7/30-7/31 David Binder Research B/C LV 200 Trump
43		 Biden
49		 +6% +6% -
8/6/20 7/24-8/2 Data for Progress B- LV 1,101 Trump
46		 Biden
45		 +1% +1% -
8/6/20 7/24-8/2 Data for Progress B- LV 1,101 Trump
44		 Biden
42		 +2% +2% -
8/5/20 7/30-8/3 Monmouth University A+ LV 401 Trump
47		 Biden
47		 0% +1.4% -
8/5/20 7/30-8/3 Monmouth University A+ LV 401 Trump
48		 Biden
46		 +2% +3.4% -
8/5/20 7/30-8/3 Monmouth University A+ RV 401 Trump
48		 Biden
45		 +3% +4.4% -
7/28/20 7/23-7/24 Public Policy Polling B V 1,118 Trump
48		 Biden
47		 +1% +1.4% -
7/22/20 7/11-7/16 Spry Strategies B/C LV 701 Trump
45.9		 Biden
47.5		 +1.6% +2% -
7/10/20 4/13-4/16 GBAO B/C LV 500 Trump
48		 Biden
45		 +3% +3% -
6/15/20 6/7-6/10 Selzer & Co. A+ LV 674 Trump
44		 Biden
43		 +1% +1.2% -
6/9/20 6/6-6/8 Civiqs B/C RV 865 Trump
46		 Biden
46		 0% 0% -
6/5/20 6/3-6/4 Public Policy Polling B V 963 Trump
48		 Biden
47		 +1% +1.4% -
5/4/20 4/30-5/1 Public Policy Polling B V 1,222 Trump
48		 Biden
46		 +2% +2.4% -
3/11/20 3/2-3/5 Selzer & Co. A+ LV 667 Trump
51		 Biden
41		 +10% +10.2% -
1/25/20 1/20-1/23 Siena College/The New York Times Upshot A+ RV 1,689 Trump
46		 Biden
44		 +2% +1.6% 0.07
1/8/20 12/29-12/31 Public Policy Polling B V 964 Trump
49		 Biden
46		 +3% +3.4% -
12/10/19 12/7-12/10 Emerson College A- RV 1,043 Trump
49		 Biden
45		 +4% +4.4% -
11/4/19 10/25-10/30 Siena College/The New York Times Upshot A+ RV 1,435 Trump
45.5		 Biden
44.2		 +1.2% +0.8% 0.06
10/17/19 10/13-10/16 Emerson College A- RV 888 Trump
50.6		 Biden
49.4		 +1.2% +1.6% -
5/11/19 4/27-4/30 WPA Intelligence B/C LV 200 Trump
49		 Biden
44		 +5% +4.2% -
3/24/19 3/21-3/24 Emerson College A- RV 707 Trump
47.2		 Biden
52.8		 +5.6% +5.2% -
2/2/19 1/30-2/2 Emerson College A- RV 831 Trump
49.4		 Biden
50.6		 +1.2% +0.8% -


Past Results

Year Candidates Republican Democrat Diff
2016 Trump v Clinton 51.2 41.7 +9.4%
2012 Romney v Obama 46.2 52 +5.8%
2008 McCain v Obama 44.4 53.9 +9.5%
2004 Bush v Kerry 49.9 49.2 +0.7%
2000 Bush v Gore 48.2 48.5 +0.3%




Updates

Last Updated: 11/3 12:26 AM EDT
10/31
Iowa polling average leader changed to Trump (+0.5%)
10/29
Iowa projected winner changed to Trump (50.2% chance of winning)
10/27
Iowa projected winner changed to Biden (50.5% chance of winning)
10/21
Iowa polling average leader changed to Biden (+0.1%)
10/13
Iowa polling average leader changed to Trump (+0.1%)