Kansas

Live Election Night Forecast

Last Updated: 5/15 2:16 AM EDT

Winner

Trump

Election Night Forecast Changes

Here you can see how the forecast has in Kansas changed throughout the evening (and perhaps coming days?), all times are EST.

Kansas Pre-Election Forecast

Safe Trump

Win Probability

Biden

Polls: 41%

Trump

100%

Polls: 53.6% +12.6%

100%

Swing

+8%

From 2016 Results

+3.9%

From 2016 Polls

Testing

Standard Deviation: 1.567 Testing Range: +/- 3.71%

Polls

41%

Biden

53.6%

Trump (+12.6%)

Date	Pollster	Rating	Voters	Sample Size	Republican	Democrat	Diff	Diff (Adj)	Weight
11/2/20 10/27-11/1	Data for Progress	B-	LV	1,121	Trump 55	Biden 41	+14%	+14%	1.08
11/2/20 10/20-11/1	SurveyMonkey	D-	LV	2,159	Trump 54	Biden 44	+10%	+15%	0.25
11/2/20 10/20-11/1	SurveyMonkey	D-	RV	2,159	Trump 53	Biden 45	+8%	+13%	-
11/1/20 10/18-10/31	SurveyMonkey	D-	LV	2,384	Trump 54	Biden 44	+10%	+15%	0.22
11/1/20 10/18-10/31	SurveyMonkey	D-	RV	2,384	Trump 53	Biden 44	+9%	+14%	-
10/31/20 10/17-10/30	SurveyMonkey	D-	LV	2,603	Trump 54	Biden 44	+10%	+15%	0.2
10/31/20 10/17-10/30	SurveyMonkey	D-	RV	2,603	Trump 53	Biden 44	+9%	+14%	-
10/30/20 10/16-10/29	SurveyMonkey	D-	LV	2,569	Trump 55	Biden 43	+12%	+17%	0.17
10/30/20 10/16-10/29	SurveyMonkey	D-	RV	2,569	Trump 53	Biden 44	+9%	+14%	-
10/29/20 10/1-10/28	SurveyMonkey	D-	LV	3,442	Trump 51	Biden 47	+4%	+9%	-
10/29/20 10/1-10/28	SurveyMonkey	D-	RV	3,442	Trump 51	Biden 47	+4%	+9%	-
10/28/20 9/30-10/27	SurveyMonkey	D-	LV	3,359	Trump 51	Biden 47	+4%	+9%	-
10/28/20 9/30-10/27	SurveyMonkey	D-	RV	3,359	Trump 50	Biden 47	+3%	+8%	-
10/27/20 9/21-10/1	Fort Hays State University	C/D	RV	306	Trump 52	Biden 37.6	+14.4%	+13%	0.06
10/27/20 9/21-10/1	Fort Hays State University	C/D	A	417	Trump 46.2	Biden 35.7	+10.5%	+9.1%	-
10/26/20 9/28-10/25	SurveyMonkey	D-	LV	3,143	Trump 51	Biden 47	+4%	+9%	-
10/26/20 9/28-10/25	SurveyMonkey	D-	RV	3,143	Trump 50	Biden 48	+2%	+7%	-
10/25/20 9/27-10/24	SurveyMonkey	D-	LV	3,126	Trump 52	Biden 47	+5%	+10%	-
10/25/20 9/27-10/24	SurveyMonkey	D-	RV	3,126	Trump 51	Biden 47	+4%	+9%	-
10/24/20 9/26-10/23	SurveyMonkey	D-	LV	3,097	Trump 52	Biden 47	+5%	+10%	-
10/24/20 9/26-10/23	SurveyMonkey	D-	RV	3,097	Trump 51	Biden 47	+4%	+9%	-
10/23/20 9/25-10/22	SurveyMonkey	D-	LV	3,041	Trump 51	Biden 47	+4%	+9%	-
10/23/20 9/25-10/22	SurveyMonkey	D-	RV	3,041	Trump 51	Biden 47	+4%	+9%	-
10/22/20 9/23-10/21	SurveyMonkey	D-	LV	2,922	Trump 51	Biden 47	+4%	+9%	-
10/22/20 9/23-10/21	SurveyMonkey	D-	RV	2,922	Trump 51	Biden 47	+4%	+9%	-
10/22/20 10/18-10/20	Siena College/The New York Times Upshot	A+	LV	755	Trump 48	Biden 41	+7%	+6.6%	0.82
10/21/20 9/23-10/20	SurveyMonkey	D-	LV	2,825	Trump 51	Biden 47	+4%	+9%	-
10/21/20 9/23-10/20	SurveyMonkey	D-	RV	2,825	Trump 51	Biden 47	+4%	+9%	-
10/21/20 10/19-10/20	Public Policy Polling	B	V	897	Trump 54	Biden 42	+12%	+12.4%	0.73
10/21/20 10/18-10/20	co/efficient	C/D	LV	2,453	Trump 56	Biden 39	+17%	+17.2%	0.51
10/20/20 9/22-10/19	SurveyMonkey	D-	LV	2,718	Trump 51	Biden 48	+3%	+8%	-
10/20/20 9/22-10/19	SurveyMonkey	D-	RV	2,718	Trump 50	Biden 48	+2%	+7%	-
10/19/20 9/21-10/18	SurveyMonkey	D-	LV	2,581	Trump 51	Biden 47	+4%	+9%	-
10/19/20 9/21-10/18	SurveyMonkey	D-	RV	2,581	Trump 51	Biden 48	+3%	+8%	-
10/18/20 9/20-10/17	SurveyMonkey	D-	LV	2,348	Trump 52	Biden 47	+5%	+10%	-
10/18/20 9/20-10/17	SurveyMonkey	D-	RV	2,348	Trump 51	Biden 48	+3%	+8%	-
10/17/20 9/19-10/16	SurveyMonkey	D-	LV	2,071	Trump 53	Biden 46	+7%	+12%	-
10/17/20 9/19-10/16	SurveyMonkey	D-	RV	2,071	Trump 52	Biden 47	+5%	+10%	-
10/16/20 9/17-10/15	SurveyMonkey	D-	LV	1,972	Trump 53	Biden 46	+7%	+12%	-
10/16/20 9/17-10/15	SurveyMonkey	D-	RV	1,972	Trump 53	Biden 46	+7%	+12%	-
10/15/20 9/16-10/14	SurveyMonkey	D-	LV	1,838	Trump 54	Biden 45	+9%	+14%	-
10/15/20 9/16-10/14	SurveyMonkey	D-	RV	1,838	Trump 54	Biden 45	+9%	+14%	-
10/14/20 9/16-10/13	SurveyMonkey	D-	LV	1,717	Trump 55	Biden 44	+11%	+16%	-
10/14/20 9/16-10/13	SurveyMonkey	D-	RV	1,717	Trump 54	Biden 45	+9%	+14%	-
10/13/20 9/15-10/12	SurveyMonkey	D-	LV	1,657	Trump 55	Biden 44	+11%	+16%	-
10/13/20 9/15-10/12	SurveyMonkey	D-	RV	1,657	Trump 54	Biden 45	+9%	+14%	-
10/3/20 6/8-6/30	SurveyMonkey	D-	RV	466	Trump 51.4	Biden 46.2	+5.2%	+10.2%	-
10/3/20 6/8-6/30	SurveyMonkey	D-	LV	466	Trump 52.6	Biden 45	+7.7%	+12.7%	-
10/3/20 7/1-7/31	SurveyMonkey	D-	RV	1,295	Trump 49	Biden 48.9	+0.1%	+5.1%	-
10/3/20 7/1-7/31	SurveyMonkey	D-	LV	1,295	Trump 50.6	Biden 47.4	+3.2%	+8.2%	-
10/3/20 8/1-8/31	SurveyMonkey	D-	RV	922	Trump 53.5	Biden 44.9	+8.6%	+13.6%	-
10/3/20 8/1-8/31	SurveyMonkey	D-	LV	922	Trump 54	Biden 45	+9%	+14%	-
10/2/20 9/1-9/30	SurveyMonkey	D-	RV	1,135	Trump 50.7	Biden 48.1	+2.6%	+7.6%	-
10/2/20 9/1-9/30	SurveyMonkey	D-	LV	1,135	Trump 51.9	Biden 47.1	+4.8%	+9.8%	-
9/30/20 9/26-9/29	Civiqs	B/C	LV	677	Trump 52	Biden 42	+10%	+10%	0.21
9/30/20 9/15-9/16	co/efficient	C/D	LV	794	Trump 53	Biden 41	+12%	+12.2%	-
9/24/20 9/14-9/19	Data for Progress	B-	LV	883	Trump 49	Biden 45	+4%	+4%	-
9/24/20 9/14-9/19	Data for Progress	B-	LV	883	Trump 48	Biden 42	+6%	+6%	-
8/12/20 8/5-8/9	SurveyUSA	A	LV	1,202	Trump 48	Biden 41	+7%	+7.2%	0.09
8/7/20 8/5-8/6	Public Policy Polling	B	V	864	Trump 50	Biden 43	+7%	+7.4%	-
6/2/20 5/30-6/1	Civiqs	B/C	RV	699	Trump 52	Biden 40	+12%	+12%	-
3/12/20 3/10-3/11	Public Policy Polling	B	V	1,567	Trump 52	Biden 40	+12%	+12.4%	-
2/10/20 1/30-2/6	DFM Research	B/C	A	600	Trump 51	Biden 43	+8%	+9.6%	-

Past Results

Year	Candidates	Republican	Democrat	Diff
2016	Trump v Clinton	56.7	36.1	+20.6%
2012	Romney v Obama	59.7	38	+21.7%
2008	McCain v Obama	56.6	41.7	+15%
2004	Bush v Kerry	62	36.6	+25.4%
2000	Bush v Gore	58	37.2	+20.8%

Updates

Last Updated: 11/3 1:14 AM EDT

10/22

Kansas polls jumped 1.5% toward Biden (was R+12.3%, now R+10.8%)

10/21

Kansas polls jumped 3.8% toward Trump (was R+8.5%, now R+12.3%)

Kansas changed from Likely Trump to Safe Trump

10/19

Kansas changed from Safe Trump to Likely Trump

10/15

Kansas changed from Likely Trump to Safe Trump

10/1

Kansas changed from Safe Trump to Likely Trump