Kansas

If Election Today more aggressive + 2016 Polling Error assumes same polling errors
Test Polling Swings see how a swing changes the model

Safe Trump

Win Probability

Biden
Trump
Biden
0%
Polls: 41.1%
Trump
100%
Polls: 52.1% +11%
100%



Swing

 
+9.6%
From 2016 Results
+2.3%
From 2016 Polls
 



Testing

Standard Deviation: 2.137 Testing Range: +/- 4.99%






Polls

 
41.1%
Biden
52.1%
Trump (+11%)
 

Date Pollster Rating Voters Sample Size Republican Democrat Diff Diff (Adj) Weight
10/28/20 9/30-10/27 SurveyMonkey D- LV 3,359 Trump
51		 Biden
47		 +4% +9% 0.13
10/28/20 9/30-10/27 SurveyMonkey D- RV 3,359 Trump
50		 Biden
47		 +3% +8% -
10/27/20 9/21-10/1 Fort Hays State University C/D RV 306 Trump
52		 Biden
37.6		 +14.4% +13% 0.16
10/27/20 9/21-10/1 Fort Hays State University C/D A 417 Trump
46.2		 Biden
35.7		 +10.5% +9.1% -
10/26/20 9/28-10/25 SurveyMonkey D- LV 3,143 Trump
51		 Biden
47		 +4% +9% 0.09
10/26/20 9/28-10/25 SurveyMonkey D- RV 3,143 Trump
50		 Biden
48		 +2% +7% -
10/25/20 9/27-10/24 SurveyMonkey D- LV 3,126 Trump
52		 Biden
47		 +5% +10% 0.06
10/25/20 9/27-10/24 SurveyMonkey D- RV 3,126 Trump
51		 Biden
47		 +4% +9% -
10/24/20 9/26-10/23 SurveyMonkey D- LV 3,097 Trump
52		 Biden
47		 +5% +10% -
10/24/20 9/26-10/23 SurveyMonkey D- RV 3,097 Trump
51		 Biden
47		 +4% +9% -
10/23/20 9/25-10/22 SurveyMonkey D- LV 3,041 Trump
51		 Biden
47		 +4% +9% -
10/23/20 9/25-10/22 SurveyMonkey D- RV 3,041 Trump
51		 Biden
47		 +4% +9% -
10/22/20 9/23-10/21 SurveyMonkey D- LV 2,922 Trump
51		 Biden
47		 +4% +9% -
10/22/20 9/23-10/21 SurveyMonkey D- RV 2,922 Trump
51		 Biden
47		 +4% +9% -
10/22/20 10/18-10/20 Siena College/The New York Times Upshot A+ LV 755 Trump
48		 Biden
41		 +7% +6.6% 1.02
10/21/20 9/23-10/20 SurveyMonkey D- LV 2,825 Trump
51		 Biden
47		 +4% +9% -
10/21/20 9/23-10/20 SurveyMonkey D- RV 2,825 Trump
51		 Biden
47		 +4% +9% -
10/21/20 10/19-10/20 Public Policy Polling B V 897 Trump
54		 Biden
42		 +12% +12.4% 0.88
10/21/20 10/18-10/20 co/efficient C/D LV 2,453 Trump
56		 Biden
39		 +17% +17.2% 0.74
10/20/20 9/22-10/19 SurveyMonkey D- LV 2,718 Trump
51		 Biden
48		 +3% +8% -
10/20/20 9/22-10/19 SurveyMonkey D- RV 2,718 Trump
50		 Biden
48		 +2% +7% -
10/19/20 9/21-10/18 SurveyMonkey D- LV 2,581 Trump
51		 Biden
47		 +4% +9% -
10/19/20 9/21-10/18 SurveyMonkey D- RV 2,581 Trump
51		 Biden
48		 +3% +8% -
10/18/20 9/20-10/17 SurveyMonkey D- LV 2,348 Trump
52		 Biden
47		 +5% +10% -
10/18/20 9/20-10/17 SurveyMonkey D- RV 2,348 Trump
51		 Biden
48		 +3% +8% -
10/17/20 9/19-10/16 SurveyMonkey D- LV 2,071 Trump
53		 Biden
46		 +7% +12% -
10/17/20 9/19-10/16 SurveyMonkey D- RV 2,071 Trump
52		 Biden
47		 +5% +10% -
10/16/20 9/17-10/15 SurveyMonkey D- LV 1,972 Trump
53		 Biden
46		 +7% +12% -
10/16/20 9/17-10/15 SurveyMonkey D- RV 1,972 Trump
53		 Biden
46		 +7% +12% -
10/15/20 9/16-10/14 SurveyMonkey D- LV 1,838 Trump
54		 Biden
45		 +9% +14% -
10/15/20 9/16-10/14 SurveyMonkey D- RV 1,838 Trump
54		 Biden
45		 +9% +14% -
10/14/20 9/16-10/13 SurveyMonkey D- LV 1,717 Trump
55		 Biden
44		 +11% +16% -
10/14/20 9/16-10/13 SurveyMonkey D- RV 1,717 Trump
54		 Biden
45		 +9% +14% -
10/13/20 9/15-10/12 SurveyMonkey D- LV 1,657 Trump
55		 Biden
44		 +11% +16% -
10/13/20 9/15-10/12 SurveyMonkey D- RV 1,657 Trump
54		 Biden
45		 +9% +14% -
10/3/20 6/8-6/30 SurveyMonkey D- RV 466 Trump
51.4		 Biden
46.2		 +5.2% +10.2% -
10/3/20 6/8-6/30 SurveyMonkey D- LV 466 Trump
52.6		 Biden
45		 +7.7% +12.7% -
10/3/20 7/1-7/31 SurveyMonkey D- RV 1,295 Trump
49		 Biden
48.9		 +0.1% +5.1% -
10/3/20 7/1-7/31 SurveyMonkey D- LV 1,295 Trump
50.6		 Biden
47.4		 +3.2% +8.2% -
10/3/20 8/1-8/31 SurveyMonkey D- RV 922 Trump
53.5		 Biden
44.9		 +8.6% +13.6% -
10/3/20 8/1-8/31 SurveyMonkey D- LV 922 Trump
54		 Biden
45		 +9% +14% -
10/2/20 9/1-9/30 SurveyMonkey D- RV 1,135 Trump
50.7		 Biden
48.1		 +2.6% +7.6% -
10/2/20 9/1-9/30 SurveyMonkey D- LV 1,135 Trump
51.9		 Biden
47.1		 +4.8% +9.8% -
9/30/20 9/26-9/29 Civiqs B/C LV 677 Trump
52		 Biden
42		 +10% +10% 0.3
9/30/20 9/15-9/16 co/efficient C/D LV 794 Trump
53		 Biden
41		 +12% +12.2% -
9/24/20 9/14-9/19 Data for Progress B- LV 883 Trump
49		 Biden
45		 +4% +4% -
9/24/20 9/14-9/19 Data for Progress B- LV 883 Trump
48		 Biden
42		 +6% +6% -
8/12/20 8/5-8/9 SurveyUSA A LV 1,202 Trump
48		 Biden
41		 +7% +7.2% 0.12
8/7/20 8/5-8/6 Public Policy Polling B V 864 Trump
50		 Biden
43		 +7% +7.4% 0.07
6/2/20 5/30-6/1 Civiqs B/C RV 699 Trump
52		 Biden
40		 +12% +12% -
3/12/20 3/10-3/11 Public Policy Polling B V 1,567 Trump
52		 Biden
40		 +12% +12.4% -
2/10/20 1/30-2/6 DFM Research B/C A 600 Trump
51		 Biden
43		 +8% +9.6% -


Past Results

Year Candidates Republican Democrat Diff
2016 Trump v Clinton 56.7 36.1 +20.6%
2012 Romney v Obama 59.7 38 +21.7%
2008 McCain v Obama 56.6 41.7 +15%
2004 Bush v Kerry 62 36.6 +25.4%
2000 Bush v Gore 58 37.2 +20.8%




Updates

Last Updated: 10/28 10:59 AM EDT
10/22
Kansas polls jumped 1.5% toward Biden (was R+12.3%, now R+10.8%)
10/21
Kansas polls jumped 3.8% toward Trump (was R+8.5%, now R+12.3%)
Kansas changed from Likely Trump to Safe Trump
10/19
Kansas changed from Safe Trump to Likely Trump
10/15
Kansas changed from Likely Trump to Safe Trump
10/1
Kansas changed from Safe Trump to Likely Trump