Kansas

Live Election Night Forecast

Last Updated: 1/26 7:51 AM EST
Winner
Trump
Trump

Election Night Forecast Changes

Here you can see how the forecast has in Kansas changed throughout the evening (and perhaps coming days?), all times are EST.




Kansas Pre-Election Forecast

If Election Today more aggressive + 2016 Polling Error assumes same polling errors
Test Polling Swings see how a swing changes the model

Safe Trump

Win Probability

Biden
Trump
Biden
0%
Polls: 41%
Trump
100%
Polls: 53.6% +12.6%
100%



Swing

 
+8%
From 2016 Results
+3.9%
From 2016 Polls
 



Testing

Standard Deviation: 1.567 Testing Range: +/- 3.71%






Polls

 
41%
Biden
53.6%
Trump (+12.6%)
 

Date Pollster Rating Voters Sample Size Republican Democrat Diff Diff (Adj) Weight
11/2/20 10/27-11/1 Data for Progress B- LV 1,121 Trump
55		 Biden
41		 +14% +14% 1.08
11/2/20 10/20-11/1 SurveyMonkey D- LV 2,159 Trump
54		 Biden
44		 +10% +15% 0.25
11/2/20 10/20-11/1 SurveyMonkey D- RV 2,159 Trump
53		 Biden
45		 +8% +13% -
11/1/20 10/18-10/31 SurveyMonkey D- LV 2,384 Trump
54		 Biden
44		 +10% +15% 0.22
11/1/20 10/18-10/31 SurveyMonkey D- RV 2,384 Trump
53		 Biden
44		 +9% +14% -
10/31/20 10/17-10/30 SurveyMonkey D- LV 2,603 Trump
54		 Biden
44		 +10% +15% 0.2
10/31/20 10/17-10/30 SurveyMonkey D- RV 2,603 Trump
53		 Biden
44		 +9% +14% -
10/30/20 10/16-10/29 SurveyMonkey D- LV 2,569 Trump
55		 Biden
43		 +12% +17% 0.17
10/30/20 10/16-10/29 SurveyMonkey D- RV 2,569 Trump
53		 Biden
44		 +9% +14% -
10/29/20 10/1-10/28 SurveyMonkey D- LV 3,442 Trump
51		 Biden
47		 +4% +9% -
10/29/20 10/1-10/28 SurveyMonkey D- RV 3,442 Trump
51		 Biden
47		 +4% +9% -
10/28/20 9/30-10/27 SurveyMonkey D- LV 3,359 Trump
51		 Biden
47		 +4% +9% -
10/28/20 9/30-10/27 SurveyMonkey D- RV 3,359 Trump
50		 Biden
47		 +3% +8% -
10/27/20 9/21-10/1 Fort Hays State University C/D RV 306 Trump
52		 Biden
37.6		 +14.4% +13% 0.06
10/27/20 9/21-10/1 Fort Hays State University C/D A 417 Trump
46.2		 Biden
35.7		 +10.5% +9.1% -
10/26/20 9/28-10/25 SurveyMonkey D- LV 3,143 Trump
51		 Biden
47		 +4% +9% -
10/26/20 9/28-10/25 SurveyMonkey D- RV 3,143 Trump
50		 Biden
48		 +2% +7% -
10/25/20 9/27-10/24 SurveyMonkey D- LV 3,126 Trump
52		 Biden
47		 +5% +10% -
10/25/20 9/27-10/24 SurveyMonkey D- RV 3,126 Trump
51		 Biden
47		 +4% +9% -
10/24/20 9/26-10/23 SurveyMonkey D- LV 3,097 Trump
52		 Biden
47		 +5% +10% -
10/24/20 9/26-10/23 SurveyMonkey D- RV 3,097 Trump
51		 Biden
47		 +4% +9% -
10/23/20 9/25-10/22 SurveyMonkey D- LV 3,041 Trump
51		 Biden
47		 +4% +9% -
10/23/20 9/25-10/22 SurveyMonkey D- RV 3,041 Trump
51		 Biden
47		 +4% +9% -
10/22/20 9/23-10/21 SurveyMonkey D- LV 2,922 Trump
51		 Biden
47		 +4% +9% -
10/22/20 9/23-10/21 SurveyMonkey D- RV 2,922 Trump
51		 Biden
47		 +4% +9% -
10/22/20 10/18-10/20 Siena College/The New York Times Upshot A+ LV 755 Trump
48		 Biden
41		 +7% +6.6% 0.82
10/21/20 9/23-10/20 SurveyMonkey D- LV 2,825 Trump
51		 Biden
47		 +4% +9% -
10/21/20 9/23-10/20 SurveyMonkey D- RV 2,825 Trump
51		 Biden
47		 +4% +9% -
10/21/20 10/19-10/20 Public Policy Polling B V 897 Trump
54		 Biden
42		 +12% +12.4% 0.73
10/21/20 10/18-10/20 co/efficient C/D LV 2,453 Trump
56		 Biden
39		 +17% +17.2% 0.51
10/20/20 9/22-10/19 SurveyMonkey D- LV 2,718 Trump
51		 Biden
48		 +3% +8% -
10/20/20 9/22-10/19 SurveyMonkey D- RV 2,718 Trump
50		 Biden
48		 +2% +7% -
10/19/20 9/21-10/18 SurveyMonkey D- LV 2,581 Trump
51		 Biden
47		 +4% +9% -
10/19/20 9/21-10/18 SurveyMonkey D- RV 2,581 Trump
51		 Biden
48		 +3% +8% -
10/18/20 9/20-10/17 SurveyMonkey D- LV 2,348 Trump
52		 Biden
47		 +5% +10% -
10/18/20 9/20-10/17 SurveyMonkey D- RV 2,348 Trump
51		 Biden
48		 +3% +8% -
10/17/20 9/19-10/16 SurveyMonkey D- LV 2,071 Trump
53		 Biden
46		 +7% +12% -
10/17/20 9/19-10/16 SurveyMonkey D- RV 2,071 Trump
52		 Biden
47		 +5% +10% -
10/16/20 9/17-10/15 SurveyMonkey D- LV 1,972 Trump
53		 Biden
46		 +7% +12% -
10/16/20 9/17-10/15 SurveyMonkey D- RV 1,972 Trump
53		 Biden
46		 +7% +12% -
10/15/20 9/16-10/14 SurveyMonkey D- LV 1,838 Trump
54		 Biden
45		 +9% +14% -
10/15/20 9/16-10/14 SurveyMonkey D- RV 1,838 Trump
54		 Biden
45		 +9% +14% -
10/14/20 9/16-10/13 SurveyMonkey D- LV 1,717 Trump
55		 Biden
44		 +11% +16% -
10/14/20 9/16-10/13 SurveyMonkey D- RV 1,717 Trump
54		 Biden
45		 +9% +14% -
10/13/20 9/15-10/12 SurveyMonkey D- LV 1,657 Trump
55		 Biden
44		 +11% +16% -
10/13/20 9/15-10/12 SurveyMonkey D- RV 1,657 Trump
54		 Biden
45		 +9% +14% -
10/3/20 6/8-6/30 SurveyMonkey D- RV 466 Trump
51.4		 Biden
46.2		 +5.2% +10.2% -
10/3/20 6/8-6/30 SurveyMonkey D- LV 466 Trump
52.6		 Biden
45		 +7.7% +12.7% -
10/3/20 7/1-7/31 SurveyMonkey D- RV 1,295 Trump
49		 Biden
48.9		 +0.1% +5.1% -
10/3/20 7/1-7/31 SurveyMonkey D- LV 1,295 Trump
50.6		 Biden
47.4		 +3.2% +8.2% -
10/3/20 8/1-8/31 SurveyMonkey D- RV 922 Trump
53.5		 Biden
44.9		 +8.6% +13.6% -
10/3/20 8/1-8/31 SurveyMonkey D- LV 922 Trump
54		 Biden
45		 +9% +14% -
10/2/20 9/1-9/30 SurveyMonkey D- RV 1,135 Trump
50.7		 Biden
48.1		 +2.6% +7.6% -
10/2/20 9/1-9/30 SurveyMonkey D- LV 1,135 Trump
51.9		 Biden
47.1		 +4.8% +9.8% -
9/30/20 9/26-9/29 Civiqs B/C LV 677 Trump
52		 Biden
42		 +10% +10% 0.21
9/30/20 9/15-9/16 co/efficient C/D LV 794 Trump
53		 Biden
41		 +12% +12.2% -
9/24/20 9/14-9/19 Data for Progress B- LV 883 Trump
49		 Biden
45		 +4% +4% -
9/24/20 9/14-9/19 Data for Progress B- LV 883 Trump
48		 Biden
42		 +6% +6% -
8/12/20 8/5-8/9 SurveyUSA A LV 1,202 Trump
48		 Biden
41		 +7% +7.2% 0.09
8/7/20 8/5-8/6 Public Policy Polling B V 864 Trump
50		 Biden
43		 +7% +7.4% -
6/2/20 5/30-6/1 Civiqs B/C RV 699 Trump
52		 Biden
40		 +12% +12% -
3/12/20 3/10-3/11 Public Policy Polling B V 1,567 Trump
52		 Biden
40		 +12% +12.4% -
2/10/20 1/30-2/6 DFM Research B/C A 600 Trump
51		 Biden
43		 +8% +9.6% -


Past Results

Year Candidates Republican Democrat Diff
2016 Trump v Clinton 56.7 36.1 +20.6%
2012 Romney v Obama 59.7 38 +21.7%
2008 McCain v Obama 56.6 41.7 +15%
2004 Bush v Kerry 62 36.6 +25.4%
2000 Bush v Gore 58 37.2 +20.8%




Updates

Last Updated: 11/3 1:14 AM EST
10/22
Kansas polls jumped 1.5% toward Biden (was R+12.3%, now R+10.8%)
10/21
Kansas polls jumped 3.8% toward Trump (was R+8.5%, now R+12.3%)
Kansas changed from Likely Trump to Safe Trump
10/19
Kansas changed from Safe Trump to Likely Trump
10/15
Kansas changed from Likely Trump to Safe Trump
10/1
Kansas changed from Safe Trump to Likely Trump