Kentucky
Live Election Night Forecast
Last Updated: 1/26 7:34 AM ESTElection Night Forecast Changes
Here you can see how the forecast has in Kentucky changed throughout the evening (and perhaps coming days?), all times are EST.
Kentucky Pre-Election Forecast
Safe Trump
Win Probability
Swing
+12%
From 2016 Results
+0.4%
From 2016 Polls
Polls
39%
Biden
56.8%
Trump
(+17.8%)
Date | Pollster | Rating | Voters | Sample Size | Republican | Democrat | Diff | Diff (Adj) | Weight |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
11/2/20 10/23-11/1 | Swayable | D- | LV | 383 | Trump 55 |
Biden 41.5 |
+13.5% | +13.5% | 0.49 |
11/2/20 10/20-11/1 | SurveyMonkey | D- | LV | 1,759 | Trump 59 |
Biden 40 |
+19% | +24% | 0.25 |
11/2/20 10/20-11/1 | SurveyMonkey | D- | RV | 1,759 | Trump 58 |
Biden 40 |
+18% | +23% | - |
11/1/20 10/18-10/31 | SurveyMonkey | D- | LV | 1,976 | Trump 59 |
Biden 40 |
+19% | +24% | 0.23 |
11/1/20 10/18-10/31 | SurveyMonkey | D- | RV | 1,976 | Trump 58 |
Biden 40 |
+18% | +23% | - |
10/31/20 10/17-10/30 | SurveyMonkey | D- | LV | 1,982 | Trump 59 |
Biden 40 |
+19% | +24% | 0.2 |
10/31/20 10/17-10/30 | SurveyMonkey | D- | RV | 1,982 | Trump 58 |
Biden 41 |
+17% | +22% | - |
10/30/20 10/16-10/29 | SurveyMonkey | D- | LV | 2,020 | Trump 59 |
Biden 40 |
+19% | +24% | 0.18 |
10/30/20 10/16-10/29 | SurveyMonkey | D- | RV | 2,020 | Trump 58 |
Biden 40 |
+18% | +23% | - |
10/29/20 10/1-10/28 | SurveyMonkey | D- | LV | 3,621 | Trump 56 |
Biden 42 |
+14% | +19% | - |
10/29/20 10/1-10/28 | SurveyMonkey | D- | RV | 3,621 | Trump 55 |
Biden 43 |
+12% | +17% | - |
10/29/20 10/16-10/28 | Bluegrass Community and Technical College | RV | 250 | Trump 52 |
Biden 38.8 |
+13.2% | +13.2% | 0.43 | |
10/28/20 9/30-10/27 | SurveyMonkey | D- | LV | 3,478 | Trump 56 |
Biden 42 |
+14% | +19% | - |
10/28/20 9/30-10/27 | SurveyMonkey | D- | RV | 3,478 | Trump 56 |
Biden 42 |
+14% | +19% | - |
10/26/20 9/27-10/25 | SurveyMonkey | D- | LV | 3,381 | Trump 57 |
Biden 42 |
+15% | +20% | - |
10/26/20 9/27-10/25 | SurveyMonkey | D- | RV | 3,381 | Trump 56 |
Biden 42 |
+14% | +19% | - |
10/25/20 9/27-10/24 | SurveyMonkey | D- | LV | 3,331 | Trump 57 |
Biden 42 |
+15% | +20% | - |
10/25/20 9/27-10/24 | SurveyMonkey | D- | RV | 3,331 | Trump 56 |
Biden 42 |
+14% | +19% | - |
10/24/20 9/26-10/23 | SurveyMonkey | D- | LV | 3,300 | Trump 57 |
Biden 42 |
+15% | +20% | - |
10/24/20 9/26-10/23 | SurveyMonkey | D- | RV | 3,300 | Trump 56 |
Biden 42 |
+14% | +19% | - |
10/23/20 9/25-10/22 | SurveyMonkey | D- | LV | 3,252 | Trump 57 |
Biden 42 |
+15% | +20% | - |
10/23/20 9/25-10/22 | SurveyMonkey | D- | RV | 3,252 | Trump 56 |
Biden 42 |
+14% | +19% | - |
10/22/20 9/24-10/21 | SurveyMonkey | D- | LV | 3,136 | Trump 57 |
Biden 42 |
+15% | +20% | - |
10/22/20 9/24-10/21 | SurveyMonkey | D- | RV | 3,136 | Trump 57 |
Biden 41 |
+16% | +21% | - |
10/21/20 9/23-10/20 | SurveyMonkey | D- | LV | 3,023 | Trump 57 |
Biden 41 |
+16% | +21% | - |
10/21/20 9/23-10/20 | SurveyMonkey | D- | RV | 3,023 | Trump 57 |
Biden 41 |
+16% | +21% | - |
10/20/20 9/22-10/19 | SurveyMonkey | D- | LV | 2,908 | Trump 57 |
Biden 42 |
+15% | +20% | - |
10/20/20 9/22-10/19 | SurveyMonkey | D- | RV | 2,908 | Trump 57 |
Biden 41 |
+16% | +21% | - |
10/20/20 10/12-10/15 | Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | B+ | LV | 625 | Trump 56 |
Biden 39 |
+17% | +16.4% | 0.59 |
10/19/20 9/21-10/18 | SurveyMonkey | D- | LV | 2,788 | Trump 57 |
Biden 42 |
+15% | +20% | - |
10/19/20 9/21-10/18 | SurveyMonkey | D- | RV | 2,788 | Trump 57 |
Biden 41 |
+16% | +21% | - |
10/18/20 9/20-10/17 | SurveyMonkey | D- | LV | 2,719 | Trump 57 |
Biden 42 |
+15% | +20% | - |
10/18/20 9/20-10/17 | SurveyMonkey | D- | RV | 2,719 | Trump 57 |
Biden 41 |
+16% | +21% | - |
10/17/20 9/19-10/16 | SurveyMonkey | D- | LV | 2,653 | Trump 57 |
Biden 41 |
+16% | +21% | - |
10/17/20 9/19-10/16 | SurveyMonkey | D- | RV | 2,653 | Trump 58 |
Biden 40 |
+18% | +23% | - |
10/16/20 9/18-10/15 | SurveyMonkey | D- | LV | 2,525 | Trump 58 |
Biden 41 |
+17% | +22% | - |
10/16/20 9/18-10/15 | SurveyMonkey | D- | RV | 2,525 | Trump 58 |
Biden 40 |
+18% | +23% | - |
10/15/20 9/17-10/14 | SurveyMonkey | D- | LV | 2,352 | Trump 58 |
Biden 41 |
+17% | +22% | - |
10/15/20 9/17-10/14 | SurveyMonkey | D- | RV | 2,352 | Trump 58 |
Biden 40 |
+18% | +23% | - |
10/14/20 9/16-10/13 | SurveyMonkey | D- | LV | 2,279 | Trump 58 |
Biden 40 |
+18% | +23% | - |
10/14/20 9/16-10/13 | SurveyMonkey | D- | RV | 2,279 | Trump 59 |
Biden 39 |
+20% | +25% | - |
10/13/20 9/14-10/12 | SurveyMonkey | D- | LV | 2,109 | Trump 58 |
Biden 40 |
+18% | +23% | - |
10/13/20 9/14-10/12 | SurveyMonkey | D- | RV | 2,109 | Trump 59 |
Biden 39 |
+20% | +25% | - |
10/3/20 6/8-6/30 | SurveyMonkey | D- | RV | 596 | Trump 58.9 |
Biden 38.7 |
+20.2% | +25.2% | - |
10/3/20 6/8-6/30 | SurveyMonkey | D- | LV | 596 | Trump 60 |
Biden 37.8 |
+22.2% | +27.2% | - |
10/3/20 7/1-7/31 | SurveyMonkey | D- | RV | 1,709 | Trump 62.4 |
Biden 36 |
+26.4% | +31.4% | - |
10/3/20 7/1-7/31 | SurveyMonkey | D- | LV | 1,709 | Trump 61.8 |
Biden 36.8 |
+25% | +30% | - |
10/3/20 8/1-8/31 | SurveyMonkey | D- | RV | 1,231 | Trump 59.4 |
Biden 38.2 |
+21.3% | +26.3% | - |
10/3/20 8/1-8/31 | SurveyMonkey | D- | LV | 1,231 | Trump 60 |
Biden 38 |
+22% | +27% | - |
10/2/20 9/1-9/30 | SurveyMonkey | D- | RV | 1,479 | Trump 59.3 |
Biden 38.9 |
+20.5% | +25.5% | - |
10/2/20 9/1-9/30 | SurveyMonkey | D- | LV | 1,479 | Trump 59.4 |
Biden 39.3 |
+20.2% | +25.2% | - |
9/24/20 9/14-9/19 | Data for Progress | B- | LV | 807 | Trump 56 |
Biden 38 |
+18% | +18% | - |
9/24/20 9/14-9/19 | Data for Progress | B- | LV | 807 | Trump 55 |
Biden 35 |
+20% | +20% | - |
9/16/20 9/10-9/14 | Quinnipiac University | B+ | LV | 1,164 | Trump 58 |
Biden 38 |
+20% | +20.2% | 0.14 |
8/6/20 7/30-8/3 | Quinnipiac University | B+ | RV | 909 | Trump 50 |
Biden 41 |
+9% | +9.2% | 0.07 |
8/5/20 4/7-4/12 | Bluegrass Data | RV | 4,000 | Trump 55 |
Biden 34 |
+21% | +21% | - | |
8/5/20 7/25-7/29 | Bluegrass Data | RV | 3,020 | Trump 52 |
Biden 45 |
+7% | +7% | - | |
8/4/20 7/24-8/2 | Morning Consult | B/C | LV | 793 | Trump 59 |
Biden 35 |
+24% | +24.2% | - |
7/22/20 7/11-7/16 | Spry Strategies | B/C | LV | 700 | Trump 60.3 |
Biden 33.6 |
+26.7% | +26.3% | - |
7/16/20 7/7-7/12 | Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group | B/C | LV | 800 | Trump 53 |
Biden 41 |
+12% | +13.4% | - |
6/18/20 6/13-6/15 | Civiqs | B/C | RV | 898 | Trump 57 |
Biden 37 |
+20% | +20% | - |
6/9/20 5/21-5/24 | RMG Research | B/C | RV | 500 | Trump 53 |
Biden 36 |
+17% | +17% | - |
5/20/20 5/14-5/15 | Public Policy Polling | B | V | 1,104 | Trump 55 |
Biden 39 |
+16% | +16.4% | - |
9/17/19 7/29-7/31 | Fabrizio Ward LLC | B/C | LV | 600 | Trump 53 |
Biden 41 |
+12% | +12.2% | - |
6/17/19 6/11-6/12 | Gravis Marketing | C | LV | 741 | Trump 57 |
Biden 37 |
+20% | +21% | - |
Past Results
Year | Candidates | Republican | Democrat | Diff |
---|---|---|---|---|
2016 | Trump v Clinton | 62.5 | 32.7 | +29.8% |
2012 | Romney v Obama | 60.5 | 37.8 | +22.7% |
2008 | McCain v Obama | 57.4 | 41.2 | +16.2% |
2004 | Bush v Kerry | 59.6 | 39.7 | +19.9% |
2000 | Bush v Gore | 56.5 | 41.4 | +15.1% |
Updates
Last Updated: 11/3 3:42 AM EST10/3
8/6
8/5
7/22
7/16