Kentucky

Live Election Night Forecast

Last Updated: 5/15 2:01 AM EDT
Winner
Trump
Trump

Election Night Forecast Changes

Here you can see how the forecast has in Kentucky changed throughout the evening (and perhaps coming days?), all times are EST.




Kentucky Pre-Election Forecast

If Election Today more aggressive + 2016 Polling Error assumes same polling errors
Test Polling Swings see how a swing changes the model

Safe Trump

Win Probability

Biden
Trump
Biden
0%
Polls: 39%
Trump
100%
Polls: 56.8% +17.8%
100%



Swing

 
+12%
From 2016 Results
+0.4%
From 2016 Polls
 





Polls

 
39%
Biden
56.8%
Trump (+17.8%)
 

Date Pollster Rating Voters Sample Size Republican Democrat Diff Diff (Adj) Weight
11/2/20 10/23-11/1 Swayable D- LV 383 Trump
55		 Biden
41.5		 +13.5% +13.5% 0.49
11/2/20 10/20-11/1 SurveyMonkey D- LV 1,759 Trump
59		 Biden
40		 +19% +24% 0.25
11/2/20 10/20-11/1 SurveyMonkey D- RV 1,759 Trump
58		 Biden
40		 +18% +23% -
11/1/20 10/18-10/31 SurveyMonkey D- LV 1,976 Trump
59		 Biden
40		 +19% +24% 0.23
11/1/20 10/18-10/31 SurveyMonkey D- RV 1,976 Trump
58		 Biden
40		 +18% +23% -
10/31/20 10/17-10/30 SurveyMonkey D- LV 1,982 Trump
59		 Biden
40		 +19% +24% 0.2
10/31/20 10/17-10/30 SurveyMonkey D- RV 1,982 Trump
58		 Biden
41		 +17% +22% -
10/30/20 10/16-10/29 SurveyMonkey D- LV 2,020 Trump
59		 Biden
40		 +19% +24% 0.18
10/30/20 10/16-10/29 SurveyMonkey D- RV 2,020 Trump
58		 Biden
40		 +18% +23% -
10/29/20 10/1-10/28 SurveyMonkey D- LV 3,621 Trump
56		 Biden
42		 +14% +19% -
10/29/20 10/1-10/28 SurveyMonkey D- RV 3,621 Trump
55		 Biden
43		 +12% +17% -
10/29/20 10/16-10/28 Bluegrass Community and Technical College RV 250 Trump
52		 Biden
38.8		 +13.2% +13.2% 0.43
10/28/20 9/30-10/27 SurveyMonkey D- LV 3,478 Trump
56		 Biden
42		 +14% +19% -
10/28/20 9/30-10/27 SurveyMonkey D- RV 3,478 Trump
56		 Biden
42		 +14% +19% -
10/26/20 9/27-10/25 SurveyMonkey D- LV 3,381 Trump
57		 Biden
42		 +15% +20% -
10/26/20 9/27-10/25 SurveyMonkey D- RV 3,381 Trump
56		 Biden
42		 +14% +19% -
10/25/20 9/27-10/24 SurveyMonkey D- LV 3,331 Trump
57		 Biden
42		 +15% +20% -
10/25/20 9/27-10/24 SurveyMonkey D- RV 3,331 Trump
56		 Biden
42		 +14% +19% -
10/24/20 9/26-10/23 SurveyMonkey D- LV 3,300 Trump
57		 Biden
42		 +15% +20% -
10/24/20 9/26-10/23 SurveyMonkey D- RV 3,300 Trump
56		 Biden
42		 +14% +19% -
10/23/20 9/25-10/22 SurveyMonkey D- LV 3,252 Trump
57		 Biden
42		 +15% +20% -
10/23/20 9/25-10/22 SurveyMonkey D- RV 3,252 Trump
56		 Biden
42		 +14% +19% -
10/22/20 9/24-10/21 SurveyMonkey D- LV 3,136 Trump
57		 Biden
42		 +15% +20% -
10/22/20 9/24-10/21 SurveyMonkey D- RV 3,136 Trump
57		 Biden
41		 +16% +21% -
10/21/20 9/23-10/20 SurveyMonkey D- LV 3,023 Trump
57		 Biden
41		 +16% +21% -
10/21/20 9/23-10/20 SurveyMonkey D- RV 3,023 Trump
57		 Biden
41		 +16% +21% -
10/20/20 9/22-10/19 SurveyMonkey D- LV 2,908 Trump
57		 Biden
42		 +15% +20% -
10/20/20 9/22-10/19 SurveyMonkey D- RV 2,908 Trump
57		 Biden
41		 +16% +21% -
10/20/20 10/12-10/15 Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy B+ LV 625 Trump
56		 Biden
39		 +17% +16.4% 0.59
10/19/20 9/21-10/18 SurveyMonkey D- LV 2,788 Trump
57		 Biden
42		 +15% +20% -
10/19/20 9/21-10/18 SurveyMonkey D- RV 2,788 Trump
57		 Biden
41		 +16% +21% -
10/18/20 9/20-10/17 SurveyMonkey D- LV 2,719 Trump
57		 Biden
42		 +15% +20% -
10/18/20 9/20-10/17 SurveyMonkey D- RV 2,719 Trump
57		 Biden
41		 +16% +21% -
10/17/20 9/19-10/16 SurveyMonkey D- LV 2,653 Trump
57		 Biden
41		 +16% +21% -
10/17/20 9/19-10/16 SurveyMonkey D- RV 2,653 Trump
58		 Biden
40		 +18% +23% -
10/16/20 9/18-10/15 SurveyMonkey D- LV 2,525 Trump
58		 Biden
41		 +17% +22% -
10/16/20 9/18-10/15 SurveyMonkey D- RV 2,525 Trump
58		 Biden
40		 +18% +23% -
10/15/20 9/17-10/14 SurveyMonkey D- LV 2,352 Trump
58		 Biden
41		 +17% +22% -
10/15/20 9/17-10/14 SurveyMonkey D- RV 2,352 Trump
58		 Biden
40		 +18% +23% -
10/14/20 9/16-10/13 SurveyMonkey D- LV 2,279 Trump
58		 Biden
40		 +18% +23% -
10/14/20 9/16-10/13 SurveyMonkey D- RV 2,279 Trump
59		 Biden
39		 +20% +25% -
10/13/20 9/14-10/12 SurveyMonkey D- LV 2,109 Trump
58		 Biden
40		 +18% +23% -
10/13/20 9/14-10/12 SurveyMonkey D- RV 2,109 Trump
59		 Biden
39		 +20% +25% -
10/3/20 6/8-6/30 SurveyMonkey D- RV 596 Trump
58.9		 Biden
38.7		 +20.2% +25.2% -
10/3/20 6/8-6/30 SurveyMonkey D- LV 596 Trump
60		 Biden
37.8		 +22.2% +27.2% -
10/3/20 7/1-7/31 SurveyMonkey D- RV 1,709 Trump
62.4		 Biden
36		 +26.4% +31.4% -
10/3/20 7/1-7/31 SurveyMonkey D- LV 1,709 Trump
61.8		 Biden
36.8		 +25% +30% -
10/3/20 8/1-8/31 SurveyMonkey D- RV 1,231 Trump
59.4		 Biden
38.2		 +21.3% +26.3% -
10/3/20 8/1-8/31 SurveyMonkey D- LV 1,231 Trump
60		 Biden
38		 +22% +27% -
10/2/20 9/1-9/30 SurveyMonkey D- RV 1,479 Trump
59.3		 Biden
38.9		 +20.5% +25.5% -
10/2/20 9/1-9/30 SurveyMonkey D- LV 1,479 Trump
59.4		 Biden
39.3		 +20.2% +25.2% -
9/24/20 9/14-9/19 Data for Progress B- LV 807 Trump
56		 Biden
38		 +18% +18% -
9/24/20 9/14-9/19 Data for Progress B- LV 807 Trump
55		 Biden
35		 +20% +20% -
9/16/20 9/10-9/14 Quinnipiac University B+ LV 1,164 Trump
58		 Biden
38		 +20% +20.2% 0.14
8/6/20 7/30-8/3 Quinnipiac University B+ RV 909 Trump
50		 Biden
41		 +9% +9.2% 0.07
8/5/20 4/7-4/12 Bluegrass Data RV 4,000 Trump
55		 Biden
34		 +21% +21% -
8/5/20 7/25-7/29 Bluegrass Data RV 3,020 Trump
52		 Biden
45		 +7% +7% -
8/4/20 7/24-8/2 Morning Consult B/C LV 793 Trump
59		 Biden
35		 +24% +24.2% -
7/22/20 7/11-7/16 Spry Strategies B/C LV 700 Trump
60.3		 Biden
33.6		 +26.7% +26.3% -
7/16/20 7/7-7/12 Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group B/C LV 800 Trump
53		 Biden
41		 +12% +13.4% -
6/18/20 6/13-6/15 Civiqs B/C RV 898 Trump
57		 Biden
37		 +20% +20% -
6/9/20 5/21-5/24 RMG Research B/C RV 500 Trump
53		 Biden
36		 +17% +17% -
5/20/20 5/14-5/15 Public Policy Polling B V 1,104 Trump
55		 Biden
39		 +16% +16.4% -
9/17/19 7/29-7/31 Fabrizio Ward LLC B/C LV 600 Trump
53		 Biden
41		 +12% +12.2% -
6/17/19 6/11-6/12 Gravis Marketing C LV 741 Trump
57		 Biden
37		 +20% +21% -


Past Results

Year Candidates Republican Democrat Diff
2016 Trump v Clinton 62.5 32.7 +29.8%
2012 Romney v Obama 60.5 37.8 +22.7%
2008 McCain v Obama 57.4 41.2 +16.2%
2004 Bush v Kerry 59.6 39.7 +19.9%
2000 Bush v Gore 56.5 41.4 +15.1%




Updates

Last Updated: 11/3 3:42 AM EDT
10/3
Kentucky polls jumped 1.7% toward Biden (was R+20.3%, now R+18.6%)
8/6
Kentucky polls jumped 2.4% toward Biden (was R+19.2%, now R+16.8%)
8/5
Kentucky polls jumped 2.6% toward Biden (was R+21.8%, now R+19.2%)
7/22
Kentucky polls jumped 1.6% toward Trump (was R+19.1%, now R+20.7%)
7/16
Kentucky polls jumped 2.1% toward Biden (was R+20.9%, now R+18.8%)