Kentucky

If Election Today more aggressive + 2016 Polling Error assumes same polling errors
Test Polling Swings see how a swing changes the model

Safe Trump

Win Probability

Biden
Trump
Biden
0%
Polls: 39%
Trump
100%
Polls: 56.5% +17.5%
100%



Swing

 
+12.3%
From 2016 Results
+0.7%
From 2016 Polls
 





Polls

 
39%
Biden
56.5%
Trump (+17.5%)
 

Date Pollster Rating Voters Sample Size Republican Democrat Diff Diff (Adj) Weight
10/28/20 9/30-10/27 SurveyMonkey D- LV 3,478 Trump
56		 Biden
42		 +14% +19% 0.14
10/28/20 9/30-10/27 SurveyMonkey D- RV 3,478 Trump
56		 Biden
42		 +14% +19% -
10/26/20 9/27-10/25 SurveyMonkey D- LV 3,381 Trump
57		 Biden
42		 +15% +20% 0.1
10/26/20 9/27-10/25 SurveyMonkey D- RV 3,381 Trump
56		 Biden
42		 +14% +19% -
10/25/20 9/27-10/24 SurveyMonkey D- LV 3,331 Trump
57		 Biden
42		 +15% +20% 0.09
10/25/20 9/27-10/24 SurveyMonkey D- RV 3,331 Trump
56		 Biden
42		 +14% +19% -
10/24/20 9/26-10/23 SurveyMonkey D- LV 3,300 Trump
57		 Biden
42		 +15% +20% 0.06
10/24/20 9/26-10/23 SurveyMonkey D- RV 3,300 Trump
56		 Biden
42		 +14% +19% -
10/23/20 9/25-10/22 SurveyMonkey D- LV 3,252 Trump
57		 Biden
42		 +15% +20% -
10/23/20 9/25-10/22 SurveyMonkey D- RV 3,252 Trump
56		 Biden
42		 +14% +19% -
10/22/20 9/24-10/21 SurveyMonkey D- LV 3,136 Trump
57		 Biden
42		 +15% +20% -
10/22/20 9/24-10/21 SurveyMonkey D- RV 3,136 Trump
57		 Biden
41		 +16% +21% -
10/21/20 9/23-10/20 SurveyMonkey D- LV 3,023 Trump
57		 Biden
41		 +16% +21% -
10/21/20 9/23-10/20 SurveyMonkey D- RV 3,023 Trump
57		 Biden
41		 +16% +21% -
10/20/20 9/22-10/19 SurveyMonkey D- LV 2,908 Trump
57		 Biden
42		 +15% +20% -
10/20/20 9/22-10/19 SurveyMonkey D- RV 2,908 Trump
57		 Biden
41		 +16% +21% -
10/20/20 10/12-10/15 Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy B+ LV 625 Trump
56		 Biden
39		 +17% +16.4% 0.71
10/19/20 9/21-10/18 SurveyMonkey D- LV 2,788 Trump
57		 Biden
42		 +15% +20% -
10/19/20 9/21-10/18 SurveyMonkey D- RV 2,788 Trump
57		 Biden
41		 +16% +21% -
10/18/20 9/20-10/17 SurveyMonkey D- LV 2,719 Trump
57		 Biden
42		 +15% +20% -
10/18/20 9/20-10/17 SurveyMonkey D- RV 2,719 Trump
57		 Biden
41		 +16% +21% -
10/17/20 9/19-10/16 SurveyMonkey D- LV 2,653 Trump
57		 Biden
41		 +16% +21% -
10/17/20 9/19-10/16 SurveyMonkey D- RV 2,653 Trump
58		 Biden
40		 +18% +23% -
10/16/20 9/18-10/15 SurveyMonkey D- LV 2,525 Trump
58		 Biden
41		 +17% +22% -
10/16/20 9/18-10/15 SurveyMonkey D- RV 2,525 Trump
58		 Biden
40		 +18% +23% -
10/15/20 9/17-10/14 SurveyMonkey D- LV 2,352 Trump
58		 Biden
41		 +17% +22% -
10/15/20 9/17-10/14 SurveyMonkey D- RV 2,352 Trump
58		 Biden
40		 +18% +23% -
10/14/20 9/16-10/13 SurveyMonkey D- LV 2,279 Trump
58		 Biden
40		 +18% +23% -
10/14/20 9/16-10/13 SurveyMonkey D- RV 2,279 Trump
59		 Biden
39		 +20% +25% -
10/13/20 9/14-10/12 SurveyMonkey D- LV 2,109 Trump
58		 Biden
40		 +18% +23% -
10/13/20 9/14-10/12 SurveyMonkey D- RV 2,109 Trump
59		 Biden
39		 +20% +25% -
10/3/20 6/8-6/30 SurveyMonkey D- RV 596 Trump
58.9		 Biden
38.7		 +20.2% +25.2% -
10/3/20 6/8-6/30 SurveyMonkey D- LV 596 Trump
60		 Biden
37.8		 +22.2% +27.2% -
10/3/20 7/1-7/31 SurveyMonkey D- RV 1,709 Trump
62.4		 Biden
36		 +26.4% +31.4% -
10/3/20 7/1-7/31 SurveyMonkey D- LV 1,709 Trump
61.8		 Biden
36.8		 +25% +30% -
10/3/20 8/1-8/31 SurveyMonkey D- RV 1,231 Trump
59.4		 Biden
38.2		 +21.3% +26.3% -
10/3/20 8/1-8/31 SurveyMonkey D- LV 1,231 Trump
60		 Biden
38		 +22% +27% -
10/2/20 9/1-9/30 SurveyMonkey D- RV 1,479 Trump
59.3		 Biden
38.9		 +20.5% +25.5% -
10/2/20 9/1-9/30 SurveyMonkey D- LV 1,479 Trump
59.4		 Biden
39.3		 +20.2% +25.2% -
9/24/20 9/14-9/19 Data for Progress B- LV 807 Trump
56		 Biden
38		 +18% +18% 0.07
9/24/20 9/14-9/19 Data for Progress B- LV 807 Trump
55		 Biden
35		 +20% +20% 0.07
9/16/20 9/10-9/14 Quinnipiac University B+ LV 1,164 Trump
58		 Biden
38		 +20% +20.2% 0.22
8/6/20 7/30-8/3 Quinnipiac University B+ RV 909 Trump
50		 Biden
41		 +9% +9.2% 0.11
8/5/20 4/7-4/12 Bluegrass Data RV 4,000 Trump
55		 Biden
34		 +21% +21% -
8/5/20 7/25-7/29 Bluegrass Data RV 3,020 Trump
52		 Biden
45		 +7% +7% -
8/4/20 7/24-8/2 Morning Consult B/C LV 793 Trump
59		 Biden
35		 +24% +24.2% -
7/22/20 7/11-7/16 Spry Strategies B/C LV 700 Trump
60.3		 Biden
33.6		 +26.7% +26.3% -
7/16/20 7/7-7/12 Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group B/C LV 800 Trump
53		 Biden
41		 +12% +13.4% -
6/18/20 6/13-6/15 Civiqs B/C RV 898 Trump
57		 Biden
37		 +20% +20% -
6/9/20 5/21-5/24 RMG Research B/C RV 500 Trump
53		 Biden
36		 +17% +17% -
5/20/20 5/14-5/15 Public Policy Polling B V 1,104 Trump
55		 Biden
39		 +16% +16.4% -
9/17/19 7/29-7/31 Fabrizio Ward LLC B/C LV 600 Trump
53		 Biden
41		 +12% +12.2% -
6/17/19 6/11-6/12 Gravis Marketing C LV 741 Trump
57		 Biden
37		 +20% +21% -


Past Results

Year Candidates Republican Democrat Diff
2016 Trump v Clinton 62.5 32.7 +29.8%
2012 Romney v Obama 60.5 37.8 +22.7%
2008 McCain v Obama 57.4 41.2 +16.2%
2004 Bush v Kerry 59.6 39.7 +19.9%
2000 Bush v Gore 56.5 41.4 +15.1%




Updates

Last Updated: 10/28 11:06 AM EDT
10/3
Kentucky polls jumped 1.7% toward Biden (was R+20.3%, now R+18.6%)
8/6
Kentucky polls jumped 2.4% toward Biden (was R+19.2%, now R+16.8%)
8/5
Kentucky polls jumped 2.6% toward Biden (was R+21.8%, now R+19.2%)
7/22
Kentucky polls jumped 1.6% toward Trump (was R+19.1%, now R+20.7%)
7/16
Kentucky polls jumped 2.1% toward Biden (was R+20.9%, now R+18.8%)