Live Election Night Forecast
This is how election night went in 2020. We've stopped updating it, but may include state calls as they come.
Use the History area on the left to look at what the forecast showed at specific times in the evening.
Check out the States section to see state level polling errors and swings from 2016.
You can also checkout our Pollsters area to see how different pollsters did in 2020.
Last Updated 11/3 6:48 PM EDT
Biden
Trump
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The lighter states haven't been called yet, but are shaded based upon our projection.
The darker states have been called.
New Hampshire (4)
Biden
Trump
99.5%
Projection
0.5%
38.5%
Vote
+23%
61.5%
+6
+6
52.7%
+9%
Polls
43.7%
0.7% Reporting
Non-Swing States
Kentucky (8)
Biden
Trump
0%
Projection
100%
49.9%
+1.4%
+3,372
+3,372
Vote
48.5%
39%
Polls
+17.8%
56.8%
10% Reporting
Indiana (11)
Biden
Trump
0.1%
Projection
99.9%
35.1%
Vote
+27.8%
62.9%
+41,717
+41,717
41.8%
Polls
+11.2%
53%
5% Reporting
Awaiting Votes
Arizona (11)
Biden
Trump
60.4%
Projection
39.6%
0%
Vote
0%
48.5%
+2.3%
Polls
46.2%
Polls Close at 9:00 PM EST
Florida (29)
Biden
Trump
69.6%
Projection
30.4%
0%
Vote
0%
49%
+2.2%
Polls
46.8%
Polls Close at 8:00 PM EST
Georgia (16)
Biden
Trump
43%
Projection
57%
0%
Vote
0%
47.8%
+0.2%
Polls
47.6%
Polls Close at 7:00 PM EST
Iowa (6)
Biden
Trump
43.1%
Projection
56.9%
0%
Vote
0%
46.8%
Polls
+0.7%
47.5%
Polls Close at 10:00 PM EST
Maine CD-2 (1)
Biden
Trump
55.7%
Projection
44.3%
0%
Vote
0%
48.3%
+2.1%
Polls
46.2%
Polls Close at 8:00 PM EST
Michigan (16)
Biden
Trump
96.5%
Projection
3.5%
0%
Vote
0%
50.6%
+7%
Polls
43.6%
Polls Close at 9:00 PM EST
Minnesota (10)
Biden
Trump
98%
Projection
2%
0%
Vote
0%
51%
+8.5%
Polls
42.5%
Polls Close at 9:00 PM EST
Nebraska CD-1 (1)
Biden
Trump
23.2%
Projection
76.8%
0%
Vote
0%
46.1%
Polls
+1.8%
47.9%
Polls Close at 9:00 PM EST
Nebraska CD-2 (1)
Biden
Trump
67.8%
Projection
32.2%
0%
Vote
0%
50%
+4.2%
Polls
45.8%
Polls Close at 9:00 PM EST
Nevada (6)
Biden
Trump
84%
Projection
16%
0%
Vote
0%
49.4%
+4.6%
Polls
44.8%
Polls Close at 10:00 PM EST
New Mexico (5)
Biden
Trump
100%
Projection
0%
0%
Vote
0%
53.8%
+11.5%
Polls
42.3%
Polls Close at 9:00 PM EST
North Carolina (15)
Biden
Trump
59.2%
Projection
40.8%
0%
Vote
0%
48.7%
+1.6%
Polls
47.1%
Polls Close at 7:30 PM EST
Ohio (18)
Biden
Trump
36.3%
Projection
63.7%
0%
Vote
0%
46.7%
Polls
+1.3%
48%
Polls Close at 7:30 PM EST
Pennsylvania (20)
Biden
Trump
88.8%
Projection
11.2%
0%
Vote
0%
50.2%
+4.6%
Polls
45.6%
Polls Close at 8:00 PM EST
Texas (38)
Biden
Trump
21.5%
Projection
78.5%
0%
Vote
0%
47.1%
Polls
+1.5%
48.6%
Polls Close at 9:00 PM EST
Wisconsin (10)
Biden
Trump
97.8%
Projection
2.2%
0%
Vote
0%
51.4%
+7.3%
Polls
44.1%
Polls Close at 9:00 PM EST
Alabama (9)
Biden
Trump
0%
Projection
100%
0%
Vote
0%
37.5%
Polls
+20.5%
58%
Polls Close at 7:00 PM EST
Alaska (3)
Biden
Trump
1.9%
Projection
98.1%
0%
Vote
0%
42.7%
Polls
+8.3%
51%
Polls Close at 1:00 AM EST
Arkansas (6)
Biden
Trump
0%
Projection
100%
0%
Vote
0%
34%
Polls
+28.5%
62.5%
Polls Close at 8:30 PM EST
California (55)
Biden
Trump
100%
Projection
0%
0%
Vote
0%
60.6%
+27.8%
Polls
32.8%
Polls Close at 11:00 PM EST
Colorado (9)
Biden
Trump
100%
Projection
0%
0%
Vote
0%
53.2%
+12.2%
Polls
41%
Polls Close at 9:00 PM EST
Connecticut (7)
Biden
Trump
100%
Projection
0%
0%
Vote
0%
57.3%
+22.8%
Polls
34.5%
Polls Close at 8:00 PM EST
Delaware (3)
Biden
Trump
100%
Projection
0%
0%
Vote
0%
57.9%
+17.3%
Polls
40.6%
Polls Close at 8:00 PM EST
District of Columbia (3)
Biden
Trump
100%
Projection
0%
0%
Vote
0%
90%
+81.2%
Polls
8.8%
Polls Close at 8:00 PM EST
Hawaii (4)
Biden
Trump
100%
Projection
0%
0%
Vote
0%
62.6%
+30.4%
Polls
32.2%
Polls Close at 12:00 AM EST
Idaho (4)
Biden
Trump
0%
Projection
100%
0%
Vote
0%
36.5%
Polls
+25%
61.5%
Polls Close at 11:00 PM EST
Illinois (20)
Biden
Trump
100%
Projection
0%
0%
Vote
0%
54.7%
+14.3%
Polls
40.4%
Polls Close at 8:00 PM EST
Kansas (6)
Biden
Trump
0%
Projection
100%
0%
Vote
0%
41%
Polls
+12.6%
53.6%
Polls Close at 9:00 PM EST
Louisiana (8)
Biden
Trump
0%
Projection
100%
0%
Vote
0%
35.6%
Polls
+24.3%
59.9%
Polls Close at 9:00 PM EST
Maine (2)
Biden
Trump
100%
Projection
0%
0%
Vote
0%
52.8%
+11.7%
Polls
41.1%
Polls Close at 8:00 PM EST
Maine CD-1 (1)
Biden
Trump
100%
Projection
0%
0%
Vote
0%
57.1%
+20.1%
Polls
37%
Polls Close at 8:00 PM EST
Maryland (10)
Biden
Trump
100%
Projection
0%
0%
Vote
0%
62.2%
+29.4%
Polls
32.8%
Polls Close at 8:00 PM EST
Massachusetts (11)
Biden
Trump
100%
Projection
0%
0%
Vote
0%
64%
+34.6%
Polls
29.4%
Polls Close at 8:00 PM EST
Mississippi (6)
Biden
Trump
0%
Projection
100%
0%
Vote
0%
38.9%
Polls
+18.9%
57.8%
Polls Close at 8:00 PM EST
Missouri (10)
Biden
Trump
0%
Projection
100%
0%
Vote
0%
43.4%
Polls
+9.4%
52.8%
Polls Close at 8:00 PM EST
Montana (3)
Biden
Trump
0%
Projection
100%
0%
Vote
0%
44.5%
Polls
+6.6%
51.1%
Polls Close at 10:00 PM EST
Nebraska (2)
Biden
Trump
0%
Projection
100%
0%
Vote
0%
40.6%
Polls
+17.1%
57.7%
Polls Close at 9:00 PM EST
Nebraska CD-3 (1)
Biden
Trump
0%
Projection
100%
0%
Vote
0%
19.7%
Polls
+54.2%
73.9%
Polls Close at 9:00 PM EST
New Jersey (14)
Biden
Trump
100%
Projection
0%
0%
Vote
0%
57.5%
+19.2%
Polls
38.3%
Polls Close at 8:00 PM EST
New York (29)
Biden
Trump
100%
Projection
0%
0%
Vote
0%
61.2%
+27.8%
Polls
33.4%
Polls Close at 9:00 PM EST
North Dakota (3)
Biden
Trump
0%
Projection
100%
0%
Vote
0%
36.5%
Polls
+22.8%
59.3%
Polls Close at 9:00 PM EST
Oklahoma (7)
Biden
Trump
0%
Projection
100%
0%
Vote
0%
34.2%
Polls
+28.9%
63.1%
Polls Close at 8:00 PM EST
Oregon (7)
Biden
Trump
100%
Projection
0%
0%
Vote
0%
57.8%
+17.9%
Polls
39.9%
Polls Close at 11:00 PM EST
Rhode Island (4)
Biden
Trump
100%
Projection
0%
0%
Vote
0%
60.8%
+23.4%
Polls
37.4%
Polls Close at 8:00 PM EST
South Carolina (9)
Biden
Trump
0%
Projection
100%
0%
Vote
0%
43.8%
Polls
+7.8%
51.6%
Polls Close at 7:00 PM EST
South Dakota (3)
Biden
Trump
0%
Projection
100%
0%
Vote
0%
37.6%
Polls
+19.6%
57.2%
Polls Close at 9:00 PM EST
Tennessee (11)
Biden
Trump
0%
Projection
100%
0%
Vote
0%
40.9%
Polls
+16.7%
57.6%
Polls Close at 8:00 PM EST
Utah (6)
Biden
Trump
0%
Projection
100%
0%
Vote
0%
40.8%
Polls
+12.1%
52.9%
Polls Close at 10:00 PM EST
Vermont (3)
Biden
Trump
100%
Projection
0%
0%
Vote
0%
65.2%
+34.3%
Polls
30.9%
Polls Close at 7:00 PM EST
Virginia (13)
Biden
Trump
100%
Projection
0%
0%
Vote
0%
53.1%
+11%
Polls
42.1%
Polls Close at 7:00 PM EST
Washington (12)
Biden
Trump
100%
Projection
0%
0%
Vote
0%
58.4%
+21.7%
Polls
36.7%
Polls Close at 11:00 PM EST
West Virginia (5)
Biden
Trump
0%
Projection
100%
0%
Vote
0%
33.6%
Polls
+29.5%
63.1%
Polls Close at 7:30 PM EST
Wyoming (3)
Biden
Trump
0%
Projection
100%
0%
Vote
0%
30.7%
Polls
+34.8%
65.5%
Polls Close at 9:00 PM EST
Election Night Forecast Changes
This is how the forecast has changed throughout the evening (and days?), all times are EST.
Electoral College Votes
Biden
0
335
335.2
351
Trump
0
203
202.8
187
Electoral College Simulations
Here are all the electoral college outcomes the forecast currently projects.
It's updated each time we update the live forecast.
Popular Vote
Here's how the popular vote leader has changed throughout the night.
Tipping Point States
Which uncalled state will decide the election?
| State | Projection | Tipping % |
|---|---|---|
| Pennsylvania (20) | 88.8% | 52% |
| Florida (29) | 69.6% | 10.1% |
| Michigan (16) | 96.5% | 5.4% |
| Wisconsin (10) | 97.8% | 4.7% |
| North Carolina (15) | 59.2% | 3.6% |
| Arizona (11) | 60.4% | 3.3% |
| Minnesota (10) | 98% | 3.2% |
| Ohio (18) | 63.7% | 2.7% |
| Georgia (16) | 57% | 2.7% |
| Virginia (13) | 100% | 2.6% |
| Nevada (6) | 84% | 2.3% |
| Texas (38) | 78.5% | 1.7% |
| New Hampshire (4) | 99.5% | 1.6% |
| Colorado (9) | 100% | 1.2% |
| New Mexico (5) | 100% | 0.9% |
| Iowa (6) | 56.9% | 0.8% |
| Nebraska CD-2 (1) | 67.8% | 0.4% |
| Maine (2) | 100% | 0.3% |
| Maine CD-2 (1) | 55.7% | 0.2% |
| Nebraska CD-1 (1) | 76.8% | 0.1% |
| Alaska (3) | 98.1% | 0.1% |
About
Every 2 minutes we get the latest vote count in every state. We then re-run our 20,000 simulations of the election to project who's most likely to win each state and the election overall. Your screen will update automatically with the latest info (so no need to hit refresh).
As we get more votes in, we'll defer to the vote count more (rather than the polls) and start narrowing the range our model tests in its simulations.
Some other more detailed info we'd like to note:
Vote Count vs Polls
The vote count slowly takes over the polls in our live projection, very slowly at first (as the early numbers may be all over the place), but as we get more of the total vote in, the vote count will take over. The chart below shows about how much of our projection is votes at each reporting level:
| % Reporting | % of Projection That Is Votes |
|---|---|
| 10% | 0.4% |
| 20% | 1.4% |
| 30% | 3.9% |
| 40% | 9.3% |
| 50% | 19.6% |
| 60% | 35.7% |
| 70% | 55.1% |
| 80% | 72.7% |
| 90% | 85% |
Calling States
A state isn't 'called' in our projections until a TV network calls it. If a state wasn't 'Safe' before the election, the live election night projection will max out at a 99.9% probability until it's actually called.
