Live Election Night Forecast

This is how election night went in 2020. We've stopped updating it, but may include state calls as they come.
Use the History area on the left to look at what the forecast showed at specific times in the evening.
Check out the States section to see state level polling errors and swings from 2016.
You can also checkout our Pollsters area to see how different pollsters did in 2020. Last Updated 11/3 7:34 PM EST


Biden
Trump
Biden
Trump
270
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|
|
|
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3
Electoral Votes
11
Electoral Votes
95.1% Chance of Winning
4.8%  

History

5:50 PM 6:24 PM 6:36 PM 6:48 PM 6:58 PM 7:09 PM 7:14 PM 7:19 PM 7:24 PM 7:29 PM 7:34 PM 7:39 PM 7:44 PM 7:49 PM 7:54 PM 7:59 PM 8:04 PM 8:09 PM 8:14 PM 8:19 PM 8:24 PM 8:29 PM 8:34 PM 8:39 PM 8:44 PM 8:49 PM 8:54 PM 8:59 PM 9:04 PM 9:09 PM 9:14 PM 9:19 PM 9:24 PM 9:29 PM 9:34 PM 9:39 PM 9:44 PM 9:49 PM 9:54 PM 9:59 PM 10:04 PM 10:09 PM 10:14 PM 10:19 PM 10:24 PM 10:29 PM 10:34 PM 10:39 PM 10:44 PM 10:49 PM 10:54 PM 10:59 PM 11:04 PM 11:09 PM 11:14 PM 11:24 PM 11:35 PM 11:44 PM 11:54 PM 12:04 AM 12:14 AM 12:24 AM 12:30 AM 12:40 AM 12:50 AM 1:00 AM 1:06 AM 1:16 AM 1:26 AM 1:34 AM 1:44 AM 1:54 AM 2:04 AM 2:12 AM 2:22 AM 2:32 AM 2:42 AM 2:52 AM 3:02 AM 3:12 AM 3:22 AM 3:32 AM 3:42 AM 3:52 AM 4:02 AM 4:12 AM 4:22 AM 4:32 AM 4:42 AM 4:58 AM 5:08 AM 5:18 AM 5:30 AM 5:40 AM 5:50 AM 6:00 AM 6:10 AM 6:32 AM 6:38 AM 6:56 AM 7:14 AM 7:46 AM 8:12 AM 8:56 AM 9:08 AM 9:24 AM 9:46 AM 10:02 AM 10:16 AM 10:26 AM 10:38 AM 10:48 AM 11:04 AM 11:18 AM 11:28 AM 11:38 AM 11:54 AM 12:04 PM 12:14 PM 12:28 PM 12:42 PM 12:52 PM 1:04 PM 1:18 PM 1:30 PM 1:42 PM 1:56 PM 2:08 PM 2:16 PM 2:28 PM 2:38 PM 2:48 PM 3:04 PM 3:14 PM 3:24 PM 3:34 PM 3:44 PM 3:54 PM 4:06 PM 4:18 PM 4:28 PM 4:42 PM 4:52 PM 5:02 PM 5:12 PM 5:24 PM 5:34 PM 5:44 PM 5:58 PM 6:10 PM 6:22 PM 6:32 PM 6:42 PM 6:52 PM 6:58 PM 7:10 PM 7:22 PM 7:32 PM 7:44 PM 7:56 PM 8:06 PM 8:20 PM 8:34 PM 8:50 PM 9:18 PM 9:36 PM 9:56 PM 10:14 PM 10:38 PM 10:48 PM 10:58 PM 11:10 PM 11:30 PM 11:56 PM 12:26 AM 1:08 AM 5:56 AM 8:32 AM 9:00 AM 9:28 AM 9:48 AM 10:10 AM 10:24 AM 10:50 AM 11:08 AM 11:30 AM 11:44 AM 11:56 AM 12:12 PM 12:22 PM 12:38 PM 12:56 PM 1:14 PM 1:28 PM 1:52 PM 2:16 PM 2:28 PM 2:40 PM 2:56 PM 3:08 PM 3:18 PM 3:30 PM 3:42 PM 3:52 PM 4:02 PM 4:12 PM 4:22 PM 4:32 PM 4:44 PM 4:54 PM 5:04 PM 5:20 PM 5:30 PM 5:46 PM 5:56 PM 6:12 PM 6:42 PM 7:00 PM 7:16 PM 7:32 PM 7:48 PM 8:00 PM 8:24 PM 8:38 PM 9:00 PM 9:18 PM 9:58 PM 10:28 PM 10:44 PM 11:08 PM 11:52 PM 1:42 AM 6:02 AM 8:34 AM 8:52 AM 9:20 AM 9:50 AM 10:02 AM 10:26 AM 10:42 AM 10:52 AM 11:12 AM 11:34 AM 11:48 AM 12:04 PM 12:20 PM 12:32 PM 12:48 PM 1:04 PM 1:16 PM 1:28 PM 1:44 PM 1:54 PM 2:06 PM 2:18 PM 2:30 PM 2:46 PM 3:00 PM 3:12 PM 3:22 PM 3:32 PM 3:46 PM 3:56 PM 4:08 PM 4:18 PM 4:30 PM 4:40 PM 4:52 PM 5:02 PM 5:14 PM 5:24 PM 5:34 PM 5:52 PM 6:06 PM 6:16 PM 6:30 PM 6:42 PM 6:56 PM 7:16 PM 7:30 PM 7:42 PM 8:00 PM 8:12 PM 8:28 PM 8:42 PM 9:08 PM 9:36 PM 9:42 PM 9:46 PM 9:52 PM 10:00 PM 10:12 PM 10:26 PM 10:28 PM 10:42 PM 12:14 AM 12:38 AM 2:46 AM 6:16 AM 9:00 AM 9:02 AM 9:04 AM 9:20 AM 9:50 AM 9:58 AM 10:00 AM 10:02 AM 10:10 AM 10:12 AM 10:20 AM 10:30 AM 10:32 AM 10:38 AM 10:40 AM 10:50 AM 10:54 AM 11:04 AM 11:24 AM 11:26 AM 11:30 AM 12:00 PM 12:06 PM 12:12 PM 12:16 PM 1:06 PM 1:16 PM 11:56 AM 11:59 AM 1:06 PM 12:00 AM 11:26 AM 5:16 PM 12:36 PM 10:51 AM 3:29 PM 1:17 PM 12:03 PM 11:46 AM 12:28 PM 9:00 PM 9:02 PM 2:56 PM 10:31 AM 9:11 AM 9:21 AM 10:26 AM

The lighter states haven't been called yet, but are shaded based upon our projection.
The darker states have been called.

NE Districts
01 02 03
ME Districts
01 02
Florida (29)
Biden
 
Trump
80.7%
Projection
19.3%
50.4% +1.7%
+133,129
Vote
 
48.7%
 
49% +2.2%
Polls
46.8%
65% Reporting
Georgia (16)
Biden
 
Trump
42.4%
Projection
57.6%
52.6% +6.2%
+13,817
Vote
 
46.4%
 
47.8% +0.2%
Polls
47.6%
4% Reporting
New Hampshire (4)
Biden
 
Trump
99.4%
Projection
0.6%
59.2% +18.8%
+3,341
Vote
 
40.4%
 
52.7% +9%
Polls
43.7%
2% Reporting

Non-Swing States

Kentucky (8)
Biden
 
Trump
0%
Projection
100%
39.4%
 
Vote
 
+19.7% 59.1%
+92,734
39%
Polls
+17.8% 56.8%
20% Reporting
Virginia (13)
Biden
 
Trump
99.9%
Projection
0.1%
32.8%
 
Vote
 
+32.7% 65.5%
+34,451
53.1% +11%
Polls
42.1%
2% Reporting
South Carolina (9)
Biden
 
Trump
0.1%
Projection
99.9%
32.7%
 
Vote
 
+34.5% 67.2%
+3,927
43.8%
Polls
+7.8% 51.6%
0.7% Reporting

Awaiting Votes

Arizona (11)
Biden
 
Trump
60%
Projection
40%
0%
 
Vote
 
0%
 
48.5% +2.3%
Polls
46.2%
Polls Close at 9:00 PM EST
Iowa (6)
Biden
 
Trump
42.4%
Projection
57.6%
0%
 
Vote
 
0%
 
46.8%
Polls
+0.7% 47.5%
Polls Close at 10:00 PM EST
Maine CD-2 (1)
Biden
 
Trump
55.8%
Projection
44.2%
0%
 
Vote
 
0%
 
48.3% +2.1%
Polls
46.2%
Polls Close at 8:00 PM EST
Michigan (16)
Biden
 
Trump
96.5%
Projection
3.5%
0%
 
Vote
 
0%
 
50.6% +7%
Polls
43.6%
Polls Close at 9:00 PM EST
Minnesota (10)
Biden
 
Trump
98.1%
Projection
1.9%
0%
 
Vote
 
0%
 
51% +8.5%
Polls
42.5%
Polls Close at 9:00 PM EST
Nebraska CD-1 (1)
Biden
 
Trump
23.6%
Projection
76.4%
0%
 
Vote
 
0%
 
46.1%
Polls
+1.8% 47.9%
Polls Close at 9:00 PM EST
Nebraska CD-2 (1)
Biden
 
Trump
68.2%
Projection
31.8%
0%
 
Vote
 
0%
 
50% +4.2%
Polls
45.8%
Polls Close at 9:00 PM EST
Nevada (6)
Biden
 
Trump
84.3%
Projection
15.7%
0%
 
Vote
 
0%
 
49.4% +4.6%
Polls
44.8%
Polls Close at 10:00 PM EST
New Mexico (5)
Biden
 
Trump
100%
Projection
0%
0%
 
Vote
 
0%
 
53.8% +11.5%
Polls
42.3%
Polls Close at 9:00 PM EST
North Carolina (15)
Biden
 
Trump
58.8%
Projection
41.2%
0%
 
Vote
 
0%
 
48.7% +1.6%
Polls
47.1%
Polls Close at 7:30 PM EST
Ohio (18)
Biden
 
Trump
36.1%
Projection
63.9%
0%
 
Vote
 
0%
 
46.7%
Polls
+1.3% 48%
Polls Close at 7:30 PM EST
Pennsylvania (20)
Biden
 
Trump
88.7%
Projection
11.3%
0%
 
Vote
 
0%
 
50.2% +4.6%
Polls
45.6%
Polls Close at 8:00 PM EST
Texas (38)
Biden
 
Trump
21.8%
Projection
78.2%
0%
 
Vote
 
0%
 
47.1%
Polls
+1.5% 48.6%
Polls Close at 9:00 PM EST
Wisconsin (10)
Biden
 
Trump
97.7%
Projection
2.3%
0%
 
Vote
 
0%
 
51.4% +7.3%
Polls
44.1%
Polls Close at 9:00 PM EST
Alabama (9)
Biden
 
Trump
0%
Projection
100%
0%
 
Vote
 
0%
 
37.5%
Polls
+20.5% 58%
Polls Close at 7:00 PM EST
Alaska (3)
Biden
 
Trump
2%
Projection
98%
0%
 
Vote
 
0%
 
42.7%
Polls
+8.3% 51%
Polls Close at 1:00 AM EST
Arkansas (6)
Biden
 
Trump
0%
Projection
100%
0%
 
Vote
 
0%
 
34%
Polls
+28.5% 62.5%
Polls Close at 8:30 PM EST
California (55)
Biden
 
Trump
100%
Projection
0%
0%
 
Vote
 
0%
 
60.6% +27.8%
Polls
32.8%
Polls Close at 11:00 PM EST
Colorado (9)
Biden
 
Trump
100%
Projection
0%
0%
 
Vote
 
0%
 
53.2% +12.2%
Polls
41%
Polls Close at 9:00 PM EST
Connecticut (7)
Biden
 
Trump
100%
Projection
0%
0%
 
Vote
 
0%
 
57.3% +22.8%
Polls
34.5%
Polls Close at 8:00 PM EST
Delaware (3)
Biden
 
Trump
100%
Projection
0%
0%
 
Vote
 
0%
 
57.9% +17.3%
Polls
40.6%
Polls Close at 8:00 PM EST
District of Columbia (3)
Biden
 
Trump
100%
Projection
0%
0%
 
Vote
 
0%
 
90% +81.2%
Polls
8.8%
Polls Close at 8:00 PM EST
Hawaii (4)
Biden
 
Trump
100%
Projection
0%
0%
 
Vote
 
0%
 
62.6% +30.4%
Polls
32.2%
Polls Close at 12:00 AM EST
Idaho (4)
Biden
 
Trump
0%
Projection
100%
0%
 
Vote
 
0%
 
36.5%
Polls
+25% 61.5%
Polls Close at 11:00 PM EST
Illinois (20)
Biden
 
Trump
100%
Projection
0%
0%
 
Vote
 
0%
 
54.7% +14.3%
Polls
40.4%
Polls Close at 8:00 PM EST
Kansas (6)
Biden
 
Trump
0%
Projection
100%
0%
 
Vote
 
0%
 
41%
Polls
+12.6% 53.6%
Polls Close at 9:00 PM EST
Louisiana (8)
Biden
 
Trump
0%
Projection
100%
0%
 
Vote
 
0%
 
35.6%
Polls
+24.3% 59.9%
Polls Close at 9:00 PM EST
Maine (2)
Biden
 
Trump
100%
Projection
0%
0%
 
Vote
 
0%
 
52.8% +11.7%
Polls
41.1%
Polls Close at 8:00 PM EST
Maine CD-1 (1)
Biden
 
Trump
100%
Projection
0%
0%
 
Vote
 
0%
 
57.1% +20.1%
Polls
37%
Polls Close at 8:00 PM EST
Maryland (10)
Biden
 
Trump
100%
Projection
0%
0%
 
Vote
 
0%
 
62.2% +29.4%
Polls
32.8%
Polls Close at 8:00 PM EST
Massachusetts (11)
Biden
 
Trump
100%
Projection
0%
0%
 
Vote
 
0%
 
64% +34.6%
Polls
29.4%
Polls Close at 8:00 PM EST
Mississippi (6)
Biden
 
Trump
0%
Projection
100%
0%
 
Vote
 
0%
 
38.9%
Polls
+18.9% 57.8%
Polls Close at 8:00 PM EST
Missouri (10)
Biden
 
Trump
0%
Projection
100%
0%
 
Vote
 
0%
 
43.4%
Polls
+9.4% 52.8%
Polls Close at 8:00 PM EST
Montana (3)
Biden
 
Trump
0%
Projection
100%
0%
 
Vote
 
0%
 
44.5%
Polls
+6.6% 51.1%
Polls Close at 10:00 PM EST
Nebraska (2)
Biden
 
Trump
0%
Projection
100%
0%
 
Vote
 
0%
 
40.6%
Polls
+17.1% 57.7%
Polls Close at 9:00 PM EST
Nebraska CD-3 (1)
Biden
 
Trump
0%
Projection
100%
0%
 
Vote
 
0%
 
19.7%
Polls
+54.2% 73.9%
Polls Close at 9:00 PM EST
New Jersey (14)
Biden
 
Trump
100%
Projection
0%
0%
 
Vote
 
0%
 
57.5% +19.2%
Polls
38.3%
Polls Close at 8:00 PM EST
New York (29)
Biden
 
Trump
100%
Projection
0%
0%
 
Vote
 
0%
 
61.2% +27.8%
Polls
33.4%
Polls Close at 9:00 PM EST
North Dakota (3)
Biden
 
Trump
0%
Projection
100%
0%
 
Vote
 
0%
 
36.5%
Polls
+22.8% 59.3%
Polls Close at 9:00 PM EST
Oklahoma (7)
Biden
 
Trump
0%
Projection
100%
0%
 
Vote
 
0%
 
34.2%
Polls
+28.9% 63.1%
Polls Close at 8:00 PM EST
Oregon (7)
Biden
 
Trump
100%
Projection
0%
0%
 
Vote
 
0%
 
57.8% +17.9%
Polls
39.9%
Polls Close at 11:00 PM EST
Rhode Island (4)
Biden
 
Trump
100%
Projection
0%
0%
 
Vote
 
0%
 
60.8% +23.4%
Polls
37.4%
Polls Close at 8:00 PM EST
South Dakota (3)
Biden
 
Trump
0%
Projection
100%
0%
 
Vote
 
0%
 
37.6%
Polls
+19.6% 57.2%
Polls Close at 9:00 PM EST
Tennessee (11)
Biden
 
Trump
0%
Projection
100%
0%
 
Vote
 
0%
 
40.9%
Polls
+16.7% 57.6%
Polls Close at 8:00 PM EST
Utah (6)
Biden
 
Trump
0%
Projection
100%
0%
 
Vote
 
0%
 
40.8%
Polls
+12.1% 52.9%
Polls Close at 10:00 PM EST
Washington (12)
Biden
 
Trump
100%
Projection
0%
0%
 
Vote
 
0%
 
58.4% +21.7%
Polls
36.7%
Polls Close at 11:00 PM EST
West Virginia (5)
Biden
 
Trump
0%
Projection
100%
0%
 
Vote
 
0%
 
33.6%
Polls
+29.5% 63.1%
Polls Close at 7:30 PM EST
Wyoming (3)
Biden
 
Trump
0%
Projection
100%
0%
 
Vote
 
0%
 
30.7%
Polls
+34.8% 65.5%
Polls Close at 9:00 PM EST

Called States

Indiana (11)
Winner
Trump
Vermont (3)
Winner
Biden

Election Night Forecast Changes

This is how the forecast has changed throughout the evening (and days?), all times are EST.





Electoral College Votes

Biden 3
335
338.3
351
Trump 11
203
199.6
187


Electoral College Simulations

Here are all the electoral college outcomes the forecast currently projects.
It's updated each time we update the live forecast.



Popular Vote

Here's how the popular vote leader has changed throughout the night.



Updates

We'll be posting updates & interesting tidbits on @electoralpolls



Tipping Point States

Which uncalled state will decide the election?

State Projection Tipping %
Pennsylvania (20) 88.7% 51.8%
Florida (29) 80.7% 11.3%
Michigan (16) 96.5% 5.2%
Wisconsin (10) 97.7% 4.5%
North Carolina (15) 58.8% 3.5%
Arizona (11) 60% 3.4%
Minnesota (10) 98.1% 3%
Ohio (18) 63.9% 2.8%
Nevada (6) 84.3% 2.5%
Georgia (16) 57.6% 2.3%
Virginia (13) 99.9% 2%
Texas (38) 78.2% 1.8%
New Hampshire (4) 99.4% 1.7%
Colorado (9) 100% 1%
Iowa (6) 57.6% 1%
New Mexico (5) 100% 0.8%
Nebraska CD-2 (1) 68.2% 0.5%
Maine (2) 100% 0.4%
Maine CD-2 (1) 55.8% 0.3%
Nebraska CD-1 (1) 76.4% 0.1%
Montana (3) 100% 0.1%



About

Every 2 minutes we get the latest vote count in every state. We then re-run our 20,000 simulations of the election to project who's most likely to win each state and the election overall. Your screen will update automatically with the latest info (so no need to hit refresh).

As we get more votes in, we'll defer to the vote count more (rather than the polls) and start narrowing the range our model tests in its simulations.

Some other more detailed info we'd like to note:

Vote Count vs Polls
The vote count slowly takes over the polls in our live projection, very slowly at first (as the early numbers may be all over the place), but as we get more of the total vote in, the vote count will take over. The chart below shows about how much of our projection is votes at each reporting level:

% Reporting % of Projection That Is Votes
10% 0.4%
20% 1.4%
30% 3.9%
40% 9.3%
50% 19.6%
60% 35.7%
70% 55.1%
80% 72.7%
90% 85%

Calling States
A state isn't 'called' in our projections until a TV network calls it. If a state wasn't 'Safe' before the election, the live election night projection will max out at a 99.9% probability until it's actually called.

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