Live Election Night Forecast
This is how election night went in 2020. We've stopped updating it, but may include state calls as they come.
Use the History area on the left to look at what the forecast showed at specific times in the evening.
Check out the States section to see state level polling errors and swings from 2016.
You can also checkout our Pollsters area to see how different pollsters did in 2020.
Last Updated 11/3 8:49 PM EDT
Biden
Trump
270
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51
Electoral Votes
42
Electoral Votes
History
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The lighter states haven't been called yet, but are shaded based upon our projection.
The darker states have been called.
Florida (29)
Biden
Trump
3.3%
Projection
96.7%
48.3%
Vote
+2.4%
50.7%
+258,879
+258,879
49%
+2.2%
Polls
46.8%
91% Reporting
Texas (38)
Biden
Trump
36.2%
Projection
63.8%
50.6%
+2.6%
+189,400
+189,400
Vote
48%
47.1%
Polls
+1.5%
48.6%
62% Reporting
North Carolina (15)
Biden
Trump
95%
Projection
5%
52.1%
+5.3%
+219,165
+219,165
Vote
46.8%
48.7%
+1.6%
Polls
47.1%
70% Reporting
New Hampshire (4)
Biden
Trump
99.6%
Projection
0.4%
53%
+7%
+7,644
+7,644
Vote
46%
52.7%
+9%
Polls
43.7%
13% Reporting
Ohio (18)
Biden
Trump
63.1%
Projection
36.9%
54.9%
+11%
+341,653
+341,653
Vote
43.9%
46.7%
Polls
+1.3%
48%
50% Reporting
Georgia (16)
Biden
Trump
38.7%
Projection
61.3%
43.2%
Vote
+12.6%
55.8%
+175,352
+175,352
47.8%
+0.2%
Polls
47.6%
26% Reporting
Michigan (16)
Biden
Trump
97.7%
Projection
2.3%
38.8%
Vote
+20.3%
59.1%
+97,018
+97,018
50.6%
+7%
Polls
43.6%
8% Reporting
Pennsylvania (20)
Biden
Trump
91.9%
Projection
8.1%
65%
+30.7%
+213,934
+213,934
Vote
34.3%
50.2%
+4.6%
Polls
45.6%
10% Reporting
Non-Swing States
Missouri (10)
Biden
Trump
0.1%
Projection
99.9%
51.3%
+3.8%
+3,078
+3,078
Vote
47.5%
43.4%
Polls
+9.4%
52.8%
3% Reporting
Alabama (9)
Biden
Trump
0%
Projection
100%
51.5%
+4%
+465
+465
Vote
47.5%
37.5%
Polls
+20.5%
58%
0.3% Reporting
Maine (2)
Biden
Trump
99.9%
Projection
0.1%
46.4%
Vote
+4%
50.4%
+424
+424
52.8%
+11.7%
Polls
41.1%
1% Reporting
South Carolina (9)
Biden
Trump
0.1%
Projection
99.9%
46.7%
Vote
+5.3%
52%
+20,767
+20,767
43.8%
Polls
+7.8%
51.6%
15% Reporting
Kansas (6)
Biden
Trump
0.1%
Projection
99.9%
53.7%
+9.2%
+43,414
+43,414
Vote
44.5%
41%
Polls
+12.6%
53.6%
35% Reporting
North Dakota (3)
Biden
Trump
0%
Projection
100%
43.3%
Vote
+10.2%
53.5%
+2,713
+2,713
36.5%
Polls
+22.8%
59.3%
7% Reporting
Rhode Island (4)
Biden
Trump
100%
Projection
0%
43.9%
Vote
+10.2%
54.1%
+17,786
+17,786
60.8%
+23.4%
Polls
37.4%
33% Reporting
Illinois (20)
Biden
Trump
100%
Projection
0%
55.3%
+12.6%
+66,316
+66,316
Vote
42.7%
54.7%
+14.3%
Polls
40.4%
8% Reporting
Virginia (13)
Biden
Trump
99.9%
Projection
0.1%
40.2%
Vote
+17.6%
57.8%
+285,537
+285,537
53.1%
+11%
Polls
42.1%
35% Reporting
Mississippi (6)
Biden
Trump
0%
Projection
100%
39.6%
Vote
+19.9%
59.5%
+232
+232
38.9%
Polls
+18.9%
57.8%
0.1% Reporting
Arkansas (6)
Biden
Trump
0%
Projection
100%
27.7%
Vote
+42.3%
70%
+27,160
+27,160
34%
Polls
+28.5%
62.5%
5% Reporting
Awaiting Votes
Arizona (11)
Biden
Trump
60.1%
Projection
39.9%
0%
Vote
0%
48.5%
+2.3%
Polls
46.2%
Polls Close at 9:00 PM EST
Iowa (6)
Biden
Trump
42.8%
Projection
57.2%
0%
Vote
0%
46.8%
Polls
+0.7%
47.5%
Polls Close at 10:00 PM EST
Maine CD-2 (1)
Biden
Trump
56.6%
Projection
43.4%
0%
Vote
0%
48.3%
+2.1%
Polls
46.2%
Polls Close at 8:00 PM EST
Minnesota (10)
Biden
Trump
98.1%
Projection
1.9%
0%
Vote
0%
51%
+8.5%
Polls
42.5%
Polls Close at 9:00 PM EST
Nebraska CD-1 (1)
Biden
Trump
23%
Projection
77%
0%
Vote
0%
46.1%
Polls
+1.8%
47.9%
Polls Close at 9:00 PM EST
Nebraska CD-2 (1)
Biden
Trump
67.7%
Projection
32.3%
0%
Vote
0%
50%
+4.2%
Polls
45.8%
Polls Close at 9:00 PM EST
Nevada (6)
Biden
Trump
84.5%
Projection
15.5%
0%
Vote
0%
49.4%
+4.6%
Polls
44.8%
Polls Close at 10:00 PM EST
New Mexico (5)
Biden
Trump
100%
Projection
0%
0%
Vote
0%
53.8%
+11.5%
Polls
42.3%
Polls Close at 9:00 PM EST
Wisconsin (10)
Biden
Trump
97.7%
Projection
2.3%
0%
Vote
0%
51.4%
+7.3%
Polls
44.1%
Polls Close at 9:00 PM EST
Alaska (3)
Biden
Trump
1.9%
Projection
98.1%
0%
Vote
0%
42.7%
Polls
+8.3%
51%
Polls Close at 1:00 AM EST
California (55)
Biden
Trump
100%
Projection
0%
0%
Vote
0%
60.6%
+27.8%
Polls
32.8%
Polls Close at 11:00 PM EST
Colorado (9)
Biden
Trump
100%
Projection
0%
0%
Vote
0%
53.2%
+12.2%
Polls
41%
Polls Close at 9:00 PM EST
Hawaii (4)
Biden
Trump
100%
Projection
0%
0%
Vote
0%
62.6%
+30.4%
Polls
32.2%
Polls Close at 12:00 AM EST
Idaho (4)
Biden
Trump
0%
Projection
100%
0%
Vote
0%
36.5%
Polls
+25%
61.5%
Polls Close at 11:00 PM EST
Louisiana (8)
Biden
Trump
0%
Projection
100%
0%
Vote
0%
35.6%
Polls
+24.3%
59.9%
Polls Close at 9:00 PM EST
Maine CD-1 (1)
Biden
Trump
100%
Projection
0%
0%
Vote
0%
57.1%
+20.1%
Polls
37%
Polls Close at 8:00 PM EST
Montana (3)
Biden
Trump
0%
Projection
100%
0%
Vote
0%
44.5%
Polls
+6.6%
51.1%
Polls Close at 10:00 PM EST
Nebraska (2)
Biden
Trump
0%
Projection
100%
0%
Vote
0%
40.6%
Polls
+17.1%
57.7%
Polls Close at 9:00 PM EST
Nebraska CD-3 (1)
Biden
Trump
0%
Projection
100%
0%
Vote
0%
19.7%
Polls
+54.2%
73.9%
Polls Close at 9:00 PM EST
New York (29)
Biden
Trump
100%
Projection
0%
0%
Vote
0%
61.2%
+27.8%
Polls
33.4%
Polls Close at 9:00 PM EST
Oregon (7)
Biden
Trump
100%
Projection
0%
0%
Vote
0%
57.8%
+17.9%
Polls
39.9%
Polls Close at 11:00 PM EST
South Dakota (3)
Biden
Trump
0%
Projection
100%
0%
Vote
0%
37.6%
Polls
+19.6%
57.2%
Polls Close at 9:00 PM EST
Utah (6)
Biden
Trump
0%
Projection
100%
0%
Vote
0%
40.8%
Polls
+12.1%
52.9%
Polls Close at 10:00 PM EST
Washington (12)
Biden
Trump
100%
Projection
0%
0%
Vote
0%
58.4%
+21.7%
Polls
36.7%
Polls Close at 11:00 PM EST
Wyoming (3)
Biden
Trump
0%
Projection
100%
0%
Vote
0%
30.7%
Polls
+34.8%
65.5%
Polls Close at 9:00 PM EST
Called States
Election Night Forecast Changes
This is how the forecast has changed throughout the evening (and days?), all times are EST.
Electoral College Votes
Biden
51
324
331.9
351
Trump
42
214
206
187
Electoral College Simulations
Here are all the electoral college outcomes the forecast currently projects.
It's updated each time we update the live forecast.
Popular Vote
Here's how the popular vote leader has changed throughout the night.
Tipping Point States
Which uncalled state will decide the election?
| State | Projection | Tipping % |
|---|---|---|
| Pennsylvania (20) | 91.9% | 53.3% |
| North Carolina (15) | 95% | 10.2% |
| Michigan (16) | 97.7% | 5.9% |
| Ohio (18) | 63.1% | 4.3% |
| Wisconsin (10) | 97.7% | 4.2% |
| Virginia (13) | 99.9% | 3.7% |
| Nevada (6) | 84.5% | 3.7% |
| Arizona (11) | 60.1% | 3.4% |
| Minnesota (10) | 98.1% | 2.8% |
| Georgia (16) | 61.3% | 1.9% |
| Texas (38) | 63.8% | 1.4% |
| New Hampshire (4) | 99.6% | 1.3% |
| Iowa (6) | 57.2% | 1% |
| Colorado (9) | 100% | 0.9% |
| New Mexico (5) | 100% | 0.8% |
| Nebraska CD-2 (1) | 67.7% | 0.5% |
| Maine CD-2 (1) | 56.6% | 0.3% |
| Maine (2) | 99.9% | 0.3% |
| Nebraska CD-1 (1) | 77% | 0.2% |
| Florida (29) | 96.7% | 0.1% |
About
Every 2 minutes we get the latest vote count in every state. We then re-run our 20,000 simulations of the election to project who's most likely to win each state and the election overall. Your screen will update automatically with the latest info (so no need to hit refresh).
As we get more votes in, we'll defer to the vote count more (rather than the polls) and start narrowing the range our model tests in its simulations.
Some other more detailed info we'd like to note:
Vote Count vs Polls
The vote count slowly takes over the polls in our live projection, very slowly at first (as the early numbers may be all over the place), but as we get more of the total vote in, the vote count will take over. The chart below shows about how much of our projection is votes at each reporting level:
| % Reporting | % of Projection That Is Votes |
|---|---|
| 10% | 0.4% |
| 20% | 1.4% |
| 30% | 3.9% |
| 40% | 9.3% |
| 50% | 19.6% |
| 60% | 35.7% |
| 70% | 55.1% |
| 80% | 72.7% |
| 90% | 85% |
Calling States
A state isn't 'called' in our projections until a TV network calls it. If a state wasn't 'Safe' before the election, the live election night projection will max out at a 99.9% probability until it's actually called.
