Live Election Night Forecast

This is how election night went in 2020. We've stopped updating it, but may include state calls as they come.
Use the History area on the left to look at what the forecast showed at specific times in the evening.
Check out the States section to see state level polling errors and swings from 2016.
You can also checkout our Pollsters area to see how different pollsters did in 2020. Last Updated 11/3 9:39 PM EST


Biden
Trump
Biden
Trump
270
|
|
|
|
|
89
Electoral Votes
72
Electoral Votes
95.6% Chance of Winning
4.3%  

History

5:50 PM 6:24 PM 6:36 PM 6:48 PM 6:58 PM 7:09 PM 7:14 PM 7:19 PM 7:24 PM 7:29 PM 7:34 PM 7:39 PM 7:44 PM 7:49 PM 7:54 PM 7:59 PM 8:04 PM 8:09 PM 8:14 PM 8:19 PM 8:24 PM 8:29 PM 8:34 PM 8:39 PM 8:44 PM 8:49 PM 8:54 PM 8:59 PM 9:04 PM 9:09 PM 9:14 PM 9:19 PM 9:24 PM 9:29 PM 9:34 PM 9:39 PM 9:44 PM 9:49 PM 9:54 PM 9:59 PM 10:04 PM 10:09 PM 10:14 PM 10:19 PM 10:24 PM 10:29 PM 10:34 PM 10:39 PM 10:44 PM 10:49 PM 10:54 PM 10:59 PM 11:04 PM 11:09 PM 11:14 PM 11:24 PM 11:35 PM 11:44 PM 11:54 PM 12:04 AM 12:14 AM 12:24 AM 12:30 AM 12:40 AM 12:50 AM 1:00 AM 1:06 AM 1:16 AM 1:26 AM 1:34 AM 1:44 AM 1:54 AM 2:04 AM 2:12 AM 2:22 AM 2:32 AM 2:42 AM 2:52 AM 3:02 AM 3:12 AM 3:22 AM 3:32 AM 3:42 AM 3:52 AM 4:02 AM 4:12 AM 4:22 AM 4:32 AM 4:42 AM 4:58 AM 5:08 AM 5:18 AM 5:30 AM 5:40 AM 5:50 AM 6:00 AM 6:10 AM 6:32 AM 6:38 AM 6:56 AM 7:14 AM 7:46 AM 8:12 AM 8:56 AM 9:08 AM 9:24 AM 9:46 AM 10:02 AM 10:16 AM 10:26 AM 10:38 AM 10:48 AM 11:04 AM 11:18 AM 11:28 AM 11:38 AM 11:54 AM 12:04 PM 12:14 PM 12:28 PM 12:42 PM 12:52 PM 1:04 PM 1:18 PM 1:30 PM 1:42 PM 1:56 PM 2:08 PM 2:16 PM 2:28 PM 2:38 PM 2:48 PM 3:04 PM 3:14 PM 3:24 PM 3:34 PM 3:44 PM 3:54 PM 4:06 PM 4:18 PM 4:28 PM 4:42 PM 4:52 PM 5:02 PM 5:12 PM 5:24 PM 5:34 PM 5:44 PM 5:58 PM 6:10 PM 6:22 PM 6:32 PM 6:42 PM 6:52 PM 6:58 PM 7:10 PM 7:22 PM 7:32 PM 7:44 PM 7:56 PM 8:06 PM 8:20 PM 8:34 PM 8:50 PM 9:18 PM 9:36 PM 9:56 PM 10:14 PM 10:38 PM 10:48 PM 10:58 PM 11:10 PM 11:30 PM 11:56 PM 12:26 AM 1:08 AM 5:56 AM 8:32 AM 9:00 AM 9:28 AM 9:48 AM 10:10 AM 10:24 AM 10:50 AM 11:08 AM 11:30 AM 11:44 AM 11:56 AM 12:12 PM 12:22 PM 12:38 PM 12:56 PM 1:14 PM 1:28 PM 1:52 PM 2:16 PM 2:28 PM 2:40 PM 2:56 PM 3:08 PM 3:18 PM 3:30 PM 3:42 PM 3:52 PM 4:02 PM 4:12 PM 4:22 PM 4:32 PM 4:44 PM 4:54 PM 5:04 PM 5:20 PM 5:30 PM 5:46 PM 5:56 PM 6:12 PM 6:42 PM 7:00 PM 7:16 PM 7:32 PM 7:48 PM 8:00 PM 8:24 PM 8:38 PM 9:00 PM 9:18 PM 9:58 PM 10:28 PM 10:44 PM 11:08 PM 11:52 PM 1:42 AM 6:02 AM 8:34 AM 8:52 AM 9:20 AM 9:50 AM 10:02 AM 10:26 AM 10:42 AM 10:52 AM 11:12 AM 11:34 AM 11:48 AM 12:04 PM 12:20 PM 12:32 PM 12:48 PM 1:04 PM 1:16 PM 1:28 PM 1:44 PM 1:54 PM 2:06 PM 2:18 PM 2:30 PM 2:46 PM 3:00 PM 3:12 PM 3:22 PM 3:32 PM 3:46 PM 3:56 PM 4:08 PM 4:18 PM 4:30 PM 4:40 PM 4:52 PM 5:02 PM 5:14 PM 5:24 PM 5:34 PM 5:52 PM 6:06 PM 6:16 PM 6:30 PM 6:42 PM 6:56 PM 7:16 PM 7:30 PM 7:42 PM 8:00 PM 8:12 PM 8:28 PM 8:42 PM 9:08 PM 9:36 PM 9:42 PM 9:46 PM 9:52 PM 10:00 PM 10:12 PM 10:26 PM 10:28 PM 10:42 PM 12:14 AM 12:38 AM 2:46 AM 6:16 AM 9:00 AM 9:02 AM 9:04 AM 9:20 AM 9:50 AM 9:58 AM 10:00 AM 10:02 AM 10:10 AM 10:12 AM 10:20 AM 10:30 AM 10:32 AM 10:38 AM 10:40 AM 10:50 AM 10:54 AM 11:04 AM 11:24 AM 11:26 AM 11:30 AM 12:00 PM 12:06 PM 12:12 PM 12:16 PM 1:06 PM 1:16 PM 11:56 AM 11:59 AM 1:06 PM 12:00 AM 11:26 AM 5:16 PM 12:36 PM 10:51 AM 3:29 PM 1:17 PM 12:03 PM 11:46 AM 12:28 PM 9:00 PM 9:02 PM 2:56 PM 10:31 AM 9:11 AM 9:21 AM 10:26 AM

The lighter states haven't been called yet, but are shaded based upon our projection.
The darker states have been called.

NE Districts
01 02 03
ME Districts
01 02
Texas (38)
Biden
 
Trump
20.7%
Projection
79.3%
49%
 
Vote
 
+0.6% 49.6%
+51,028
47.1%
Polls
+1.5% 48.6%
74% Reporting
North Carolina (15)
Biden
 
Trump
83.4%
Projection
16.6%
50.3% +1.8%
+84,126
Vote
 
48.5%
 
48.7% +1.6%
Polls
47.1%
80% Reporting
Ohio (18)
Biden
 
Trump
48.4%
Projection
51.6%
50.3% +1.9%
+74,470
Vote
 
48.4%
 
46.7%
Polls
+1.3% 48%
62% Reporting
Wisconsin (10)
Biden
 
Trump
98.5%
Projection
1.5%
50.1% +2.1%
+7,602
Vote
 
48%
 
51.4% +7.3%
Polls
44.1%
10% Reporting
Florida (29)
Biden
 
Trump
0.1%
Projection
99.9%
48%
 
Vote
 
+3% 51%
+329,004
49% +2.2%
Polls
46.8%
93% Reporting
New Hampshire (4)
Biden
 
Trump
99.8%
Projection
0.2%
54.7% +10.7%
+19,205
Vote
 
44%
 
52.7% +9%
Polls
43.7%
21% Reporting
Pennsylvania (20)
Biden
 
Trump
93%
Projection
7%
56% +13.2%
+130,367
Vote
 
42.8%
 
50.2% +4.6%
Polls
45.6%
19% Reporting
Georgia (16)
Biden
 
Trump
19.3%
Projection
80.7%
42.2%
 
Vote
 
+14.5% 56.7%
+335,028
47.8% +0.2%
Polls
47.6%
44% Reporting
Michigan (16)
Biden
 
Trump
97.4%
Projection
2.6%
39.1%
 
Vote
 
+19.6% 58.7%
+215,440
50.6% +7%
Polls
43.6%
19% Reporting
Minnesota (10)
Biden
 
Trump
99%
Projection
1%
67.7% +37.6%
+102,607
Vote
 
30.1%
 
51% +8.5%
Polls
42.5%
8% Reporting

Non-Swing States

Missouri (10)
Biden
 
Trump
0.1%
Projection
99.9%
49.6% +0.4%
+2,745
Vote
 
49.2%
 
43.4%
Polls
+9.4% 52.8%
21% Reporting
Nebraska (2)
Biden
 
Trump
0%
Projection
100%
48.6%
 
Vote
 
+0.5% 49.1%
+1,352
40.6%
Polls
+17.1% 57.7%
29% Reporting
Kansas (6)
Biden
 
Trump
0.1%
Projection
99.9%
47.4%
 
Vote
 
+2.7% 50.1%
+20,111
41%
Polls
+12.6% 53.6%
55% Reporting
Rhode Island (4)
Biden
 
Trump
100%
Projection
0%
43.8%
 
Vote
 
+10.3% 54.1%
+18,072
60.8% +23.4%
Polls
37.4%
34% Reporting
Maine (2)
Biden
 
Trump
99.9%
Projection
0.1%
42%
 
Vote
 
+12.5% 54.5%
+6,121
52.8% +11.7%
Polls
41.1%
6% Reporting
Illinois (20)
Biden
 
Trump
100%
Projection
0%
56.1% +14.1%
+144,265
Vote
 
42%
 
54.7% +14.3%
Polls
40.4%
16% Reporting
Virginia (13)
Biden
 
Trump
99.4%
Projection
0.6%
41.6%
 
Vote
 
+15% 56.6%
+305,526
53.1% +11%
Polls
42.1%
43% Reporting
Mississippi (6)
Biden
 
Trump
0%
Projection
100%
38.6%
 
Vote
 
+21.1% 59.7%
+20,144
38.9%
Polls
+18.9% 57.8%
7% Reporting
Louisiana (8)
Biden
 
Trump
0%
Projection
100%
36%
 
Vote
 
+26.9% 62.9%
+75,094
35.6%
Polls
+24.3% 59.9%
12% Reporting

Awaiting Votes

Arizona (11)
Biden
 
Trump
59.9%
Projection
40.1%
0%
 
Vote
 
0%
 
48.5% +2.3%
Polls
46.2%
Polls Close at 9:00 PM EST
Iowa (6)
Biden
 
Trump
42.8%
Projection
57.2%
0%
 
Vote
 
0%
 
46.8%
Polls
+0.7% 47.5%
Polls Close at 10:00 PM EST
Maine CD-2 (1)
Biden
 
Trump
56.3%
Projection
43.7%
0%
 
Vote
 
0%
 
48.3% +2.1%
Polls
46.2%
Polls Close at 8:00 PM EST
Nebraska CD-1 (1)
Biden
 
Trump
23%
Projection
77%
0%
 
Vote
 
0%
 
46.1%
Polls
+1.8% 47.9%
Polls Close at 9:00 PM EST
Nebraska CD-2 (1)
Biden
 
Trump
68.1%
Projection
31.9%
0%
 
Vote
 
0%
 
50% +4.2%
Polls
45.8%
Polls Close at 9:00 PM EST
Nevada (6)
Biden
 
Trump
84.3%
Projection
15.7%
0%
 
Vote
 
0%
 
49.4% +4.6%
Polls
44.8%
Polls Close at 10:00 PM EST
New Mexico (5)
Biden
 
Trump
100%
Projection
0%
0%
 
Vote
 
0%
 
53.8% +11.5%
Polls
42.3%
Polls Close at 9:00 PM EST
Alaska (3)
Biden
 
Trump
1.9%
Projection
98.1%
0%
 
Vote
 
0%
 
42.7%
Polls
+8.3% 51%
Polls Close at 1:00 AM EST
California (55)
Biden
 
Trump
100%
Projection
0%
0%
 
Vote
 
0%
 
60.6% +27.8%
Polls
32.8%
Polls Close at 11:00 PM EST
Hawaii (4)
Biden
 
Trump
100%
Projection
0%
0%
 
Vote
 
0%
 
62.6% +30.4%
Polls
32.2%
Polls Close at 12:00 AM EST
Idaho (4)
Biden
 
Trump
0%
Projection
100%
0%
 
Vote
 
0%
 
36.5%
Polls
+25% 61.5%
Polls Close at 11:00 PM EST
Maine CD-1 (1)
Biden
 
Trump
100%
Projection
0%
0%
 
Vote
 
0%
 
57.1% +20.1%
Polls
37%
Polls Close at 8:00 PM EST
Montana (3)
Biden
 
Trump
0%
Projection
100%
0%
 
Vote
 
0%
 
44.5%
Polls
+6.6% 51.1%
Polls Close at 10:00 PM EST
Nebraska CD-3 (1)
Biden
 
Trump
0%
Projection
100%
0%
 
Vote
 
0%
 
19.7%
Polls
+54.2% 73.9%
Polls Close at 9:00 PM EST
Oregon (7)
Biden
 
Trump
100%
Projection
0%
0%
 
Vote
 
0%
 
57.8% +17.9%
Polls
39.9%
Polls Close at 11:00 PM EST
Utah (6)
Biden
 
Trump
0%
Projection
100%
0%
 
Vote
 
0%
 
40.8%
Polls
+12.1% 52.9%
Polls Close at 10:00 PM EST
Washington (12)
Biden
 
Trump
100%
Projection
0%
0%
 
Vote
 
0%
 
58.4% +21.7%
Polls
36.7%
Polls Close at 11:00 PM EST
Wyoming (3)
Biden
 
Trump
0%
Projection
100%
0%
 
Vote
 
0%
 
30.7%
Polls
+34.8% 65.5%
Polls Close at 9:00 PM EST

Called States

Alabama (9)
Winner
Trump
Arkansas (6)
Winner
Trump
Colorado (9)
Winner
Biden
Connecticut (7)
Winner
Biden
Delaware (3)
Winner
Biden
Indiana (11)
Winner
Trump
Kentucky (8)
Winner
Trump
Maryland (10)
Winner
Biden
Massachusetts (11)
Winner
Biden
New Jersey (14)
Winner
Biden
New York (29)
Winner
Biden
North Dakota (3)
Winner
Trump
Oklahoma (7)
Winner
Trump
South Carolina (9)
Winner
Trump
South Dakota (3)
Winner
Trump
Tennessee (11)
Winner
Trump
Vermont (3)
Winner
Biden
West Virginia (5)
Winner
Trump

Election Night Forecast Changes

This is how the forecast has changed throughout the evening (and days?), all times are EST.





Electoral College Votes

Biden 89
306
317.8
351
Trump 72
232
220.1
187


Electoral College Simulations

Here are all the electoral college outcomes the forecast currently projects.
It's updated each time we update the live forecast.



Popular Vote

Here's how the popular vote leader has changed throughout the night.



Updates

We'll be posting updates & interesting tidbits on @electoralpolls



Tipping Point States

Which uncalled state will decide the election?

State Projection Tipping %
Pennsylvania (20) 93% 58.2%
Virginia (13) 99.4% 7.4%
Michigan (16) 97.4% 7.3%
Wisconsin (10) 98.5% 4.9%
North Carolina (15) 83.4% 4.8%
Arizona (11) 59.9% 3.9%
Ohio (18) 51.6% 2.8%
Minnesota (10) 99% 2.5%
Nevada (6) 84.3% 2.3%
New Hampshire (4) 99.8% 1.4%
Iowa (6) 57.2% 1.1%
Georgia (16) 80.7% 0.9%
New Mexico (5) 100% 0.9%
Texas (38) 79.3% 0.6%
Nebraska CD-2 (1) 68.1% 0.4%
Maine (2) 99.9% 0.3%
Maine CD-2 (1) 56.3% 0.2%
Nebraska CD-1 (1) 77% 0.1%
Florida (29) 99.9% 0.1%



About

Every 2 minutes we get the latest vote count in every state. We then re-run our 20,000 simulations of the election to project who's most likely to win each state and the election overall. Your screen will update automatically with the latest info (so no need to hit refresh).

As we get more votes in, we'll defer to the vote count more (rather than the polls) and start narrowing the range our model tests in its simulations.

Some other more detailed info we'd like to note:

Vote Count vs Polls
The vote count slowly takes over the polls in our live projection, very slowly at first (as the early numbers may be all over the place), but as we get more of the total vote in, the vote count will take over. The chart below shows about how much of our projection is votes at each reporting level:

% Reporting % of Projection That Is Votes
10% 0.4%
20% 1.4%
30% 3.9%
40% 9.3%
50% 19.6%
60% 35.7%
70% 55.1%
80% 72.7%
90% 85%

Calling States
A state isn't 'called' in our projections until a TV network calls it. If a state wasn't 'Safe' before the election, the live election night projection will max out at a 99.9% probability until it's actually called.

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