Live Election Night Forecast

This is how election night went in 2020. We've stopped updating it, but may include state calls as they come.
Use the History area on the left to look at what the forecast showed at specific times in the evening.
Check out the States section to see state level polling errors and swings from 2016.
You can also checkout our Pollsters area to see how different pollsters did in 2020. Last Updated 11/4 12:04 AM EST


Biden
Trump
Biden
Trump
270
|
|
|
|
|
206
Electoral Votes
136
Electoral Votes
79.3% Chance of Winning
20.1%  

History

5:50 PM 6:24 PM 6:36 PM 6:48 PM 6:58 PM 7:09 PM 7:14 PM 7:19 PM 7:24 PM 7:29 PM 7:34 PM 7:39 PM 7:44 PM 7:49 PM 7:54 PM 7:59 PM 8:04 PM 8:09 PM 8:14 PM 8:19 PM 8:24 PM 8:29 PM 8:34 PM 8:39 PM 8:44 PM 8:49 PM 8:54 PM 8:59 PM 9:04 PM 9:09 PM 9:14 PM 9:19 PM 9:24 PM 9:29 PM 9:34 PM 9:39 PM 9:44 PM 9:49 PM 9:54 PM 9:59 PM 10:04 PM 10:09 PM 10:14 PM 10:19 PM 10:24 PM 10:29 PM 10:34 PM 10:39 PM 10:44 PM 10:49 PM 10:54 PM 10:59 PM 11:04 PM 11:09 PM 11:14 PM 11:24 PM 11:35 PM 11:44 PM 11:54 PM 12:04 AM 12:14 AM 12:24 AM 12:30 AM 12:40 AM 12:50 AM 1:00 AM 1:06 AM 1:16 AM 1:26 AM 1:34 AM 1:44 AM 1:54 AM 2:04 AM 2:12 AM 2:22 AM 2:32 AM 2:42 AM 2:52 AM 3:02 AM 3:12 AM 3:22 AM 3:32 AM 3:42 AM 3:52 AM 4:02 AM 4:12 AM 4:22 AM 4:32 AM 4:42 AM 4:58 AM 5:08 AM 5:18 AM 5:30 AM 5:40 AM 5:50 AM 6:00 AM 6:10 AM 6:32 AM 6:38 AM 6:56 AM 7:14 AM 7:46 AM 8:12 AM 8:56 AM 9:08 AM 9:24 AM 9:46 AM 10:02 AM 10:16 AM 10:26 AM 10:38 AM 10:48 AM 11:04 AM 11:18 AM 11:28 AM 11:38 AM 11:54 AM 12:04 PM 12:14 PM 12:28 PM 12:42 PM 12:52 PM 1:04 PM 1:18 PM 1:30 PM 1:42 PM 1:56 PM 2:08 PM 2:16 PM 2:28 PM 2:38 PM 2:48 PM 3:04 PM 3:14 PM 3:24 PM 3:34 PM 3:44 PM 3:54 PM 4:06 PM 4:18 PM 4:28 PM 4:42 PM 4:52 PM 5:02 PM 5:12 PM 5:24 PM 5:34 PM 5:44 PM 5:58 PM 6:10 PM 6:22 PM 6:32 PM 6:42 PM 6:52 PM 6:58 PM 7:10 PM 7:22 PM 7:32 PM 7:44 PM 7:56 PM 8:06 PM 8:20 PM 8:34 PM 8:50 PM 9:18 PM 9:36 PM 9:56 PM 10:14 PM 10:38 PM 10:48 PM 10:58 PM 11:10 PM 11:30 PM 11:56 PM 12:26 AM 1:08 AM 5:56 AM 8:32 AM 9:00 AM 9:28 AM 9:48 AM 10:10 AM 10:24 AM 10:50 AM 11:08 AM 11:30 AM 11:44 AM 11:56 AM 12:12 PM 12:22 PM 12:38 PM 12:56 PM 1:14 PM 1:28 PM 1:52 PM 2:16 PM 2:28 PM 2:40 PM 2:56 PM 3:08 PM 3:18 PM 3:30 PM 3:42 PM 3:52 PM 4:02 PM 4:12 PM 4:22 PM 4:32 PM 4:44 PM 4:54 PM 5:04 PM 5:20 PM 5:30 PM 5:46 PM 5:56 PM 6:12 PM 6:42 PM 7:00 PM 7:16 PM 7:32 PM 7:48 PM 8:00 PM 8:24 PM 8:38 PM 9:00 PM 9:18 PM 9:58 PM 10:28 PM 10:44 PM 11:08 PM 11:52 PM 1:42 AM 6:02 AM 8:34 AM 8:52 AM 9:20 AM 9:50 AM 10:02 AM 10:26 AM 10:42 AM 10:52 AM 11:12 AM 11:34 AM 11:48 AM 12:04 PM 12:20 PM 12:32 PM 12:48 PM 1:04 PM 1:16 PM 1:28 PM 1:44 PM 1:54 PM 2:06 PM 2:18 PM 2:30 PM 2:46 PM 3:00 PM 3:12 PM 3:22 PM 3:32 PM 3:46 PM 3:56 PM 4:08 PM 4:18 PM 4:30 PM 4:40 PM 4:52 PM 5:02 PM 5:14 PM 5:24 PM 5:34 PM 5:52 PM 6:06 PM 6:16 PM 6:30 PM 6:42 PM 6:56 PM 7:16 PM 7:30 PM 7:42 PM 8:00 PM 8:12 PM 8:28 PM 8:42 PM 9:08 PM 9:36 PM 9:42 PM 9:46 PM 9:52 PM 10:00 PM 10:12 PM 10:26 PM 10:28 PM 10:42 PM 12:14 AM 12:38 AM 2:46 AM 6:16 AM 9:00 AM 9:02 AM 9:04 AM 9:20 AM 9:50 AM 9:58 AM 10:00 AM 10:02 AM 10:10 AM 10:12 AM 10:20 AM 10:30 AM 10:32 AM 10:38 AM 10:40 AM 10:50 AM 10:54 AM 11:04 AM 11:24 AM 11:26 AM 11:30 AM 12:00 PM 12:06 PM 12:12 PM 12:16 PM 1:06 PM 1:16 PM 11:56 AM 11:59 AM 1:06 PM 12:00 AM 11:26 AM 5:16 PM 12:36 PM 10:51 AM 3:29 PM 1:17 PM 12:03 PM 11:46 AM 12:28 PM 9:00 PM 9:02 PM 2:56 PM 10:31 AM 9:11 AM 9:21 AM 10:26 AM 10:26 AM

The lighter states haven't been called yet, but are shaded based upon our projection.
The darker states have been called.

NE Districts
01 02 03
ME Districts
01 02
North Carolina (15)
Biden
 
Trump
7.1%
Projection
92.9%
48.7%
 
Vote
 
+1.4% 50.1%
+75,766
48.7% +1.6%
Polls
47.1%
95% Reporting
Florida (29)
Biden
 
Trump
0.1%
Projection
99.9%
47.7%
 
Vote
 
+3.5% 51.2%
+380,959
49% +2.2%
Polls
46.8%
96% Reporting
Nebraska CD-1 (1)
Biden
 
Trump
31.1%
Projection
68.9%
50.7% +3.7%
 
Vote
 
47%
 
46.1%
Polls
+1.8% 47.9%
59% Reporting
Wisconsin (10)
Biden
 
Trump
80.8%
Projection
19.2%
46.8%
 
Vote
 
+4.7% 51.5%
+107,497
51.4% +7.3%
Polls
44.1%
63% Reporting
Maine CD-2 (1)
Biden
 
Trump
60.1%
Projection
39.9%
50.6% +4.9%
 
Vote
 
45.7%
 
48.3% +2.1%
Polls
46.2%
31% Reporting
Texas (38)
Biden
 
Trump
0.1%
Projection
99.9%
46.4%
 
Vote
 
+5.7% 52.1%
+583,102
47.1%
Polls
+1.5% 48.6%
88% Reporting
Iowa (6)
Biden
 
Trump
0.1%
Projection
99.9%
45.9%
 
Vote
 
+6.3% 52.2%
+94,613
46.8%
Polls
+0.7% 47.5%
81% Reporting
Arizona (11)
Biden
 
Trump
99.9%
Projection
0.1%
53.6% +8.6%
+207,794
Vote
 
45%
 
48.5% +2.3%
Polls
46.2%
76% Reporting
Nebraska CD-2 (1)
Biden
 
Trump
90.7%
Projection
9.3%
53.4% +8.6%
 
Vote
 
44.8%
 
50% +4.2%
Polls
45.8%
57% Reporting
Georgia (16)
Biden
 
Trump
0.1%
Projection
99.9%
44.9%
 
Vote
 
+8.9% 53.8%
+357,637
47.8% +0.2%
Polls
47.6%
78% Reporting
Michigan (16)
Biden
 
Trump
88.7%
Projection
11.3%
44%
 
Vote
 
+10.1% 54.1%
+285,811
50.6% +7%
Polls
43.6%
50% Reporting
Minnesota (10)
Biden
 
Trump
99.9%
Projection
0.1%
54.4% +10.8%
+231,319
Vote
 
43.6%
 
51% +8.5%
Polls
42.5%
63% Reporting
Pennsylvania (20)
Biden
 
Trump
47.5%
Projection
52.5%
42.1%
 
Vote
 
+14.4% 56.5%
+556,497
50.2% +4.6%
Polls
45.6%
54% Reporting
Nevada (6)
Biden
 
Trump
87.3%
Projection
12.7%
18.9%
 
Vote
 
+59.8% 78.7%
+2,745
49.4% +4.6%
Polls
44.8%
0.6% Reporting

Non-Swing States

Rhode Island (4)
Biden
 
Trump
100%
Projection
0%
49.5% +0.7%
+1,931
Vote
 
48.8%
 
60.8% +23.4%
Polls
37.4%
51% Reporting
Montana (3)
Biden
 
Trump
0.1%
Projection
99.9%
46.7%
 
Vote
 
+3.9% 50.6%
+7,488
44.5%
Polls
+6.6% 51.1%
32% Reporting
Maine (2)
Biden
 
Trump
99.9%
Projection
0.1%
51.2% +5.6%
+19,396
Vote
 
45.6%
 
52.8% +11.7%
Polls
41.1%
41% Reporting

Awaiting Votes

Alaska (3)
Biden
 
Trump
1.9%
Projection
98.1%
0%
 
Vote
 
0%
 
42.7%
Polls
+8.3% 51%
Polls Close at 1:00 AM EST
Hawaii (4)
Biden
 
Trump
100%
Projection
0%
0%
 
Vote
 
0%
 
62.6% +30.4%
Polls
32.2%
Polls Close at 12:00 AM EST

Called States

Alabama (9)
Winner
Trump
Arkansas (6)
Winner
Trump
California (55)
Winner
Biden
Colorado (9)
Winner
Biden
Connecticut (7)
Winner
Biden
Delaware (3)
Winner
Biden
Idaho (4)
Winner
Trump
Illinois (20)
Winner
Biden
Indiana (11)
Winner
Trump
Kansas (6)
Winner
Trump
Kentucky (8)
Winner
Trump
Louisiana (8)
Winner
Trump
Maine CD-1 (1)
Winner
Biden
Maryland (10)
Winner
Biden
Massachusetts (11)
Winner
Biden
Mississippi (6)
Winner
Trump
Missouri (10)
Winner
Trump
Nebraska (2)
Winner
Trump
Nebraska CD-3 (1)
Winner
Trump
New Hampshire (4)
Winner
Biden
New Jersey (14)
Winner
Biden
New Mexico (5)
Winner
Biden
New York (29)
Winner
Biden
North Dakota (3)
Winner
Trump
Ohio (18)
Winner
Trump
Oklahoma (7)
Winner
Trump
Oregon (7)
Winner
Biden
South Carolina (9)
Winner
Trump
South Dakota (3)
Winner
Trump
Tennessee (11)
Winner
Trump
Utah (6)
Winner
Trump
Vermont (3)
Winner
Biden
Virginia (13)
Winner
Biden
Washington (12)
Winner
Biden
West Virginia (5)
Winner
Trump
Wyoming (3)
Winner
Trump

Election Night Forecast Changes

This is how the forecast has changed throughout the evening (and days?), all times are EST.





Electoral College Votes

Biden 206
271
277
351
Trump 136
267
261
187


Electoral College Simulations

Here are all the electoral college outcomes the forecast currently projects.
It's updated each time we update the live forecast.



Popular Vote

Here's how the popular vote leader has changed throughout the night.



Updates

We'll be posting updates & interesting tidbits on @electoralpolls



Tipping Point States

Which uncalled state will decide the election?

State Projection Tipping %
Wisconsin (10) 80.8% 53.1%
Pennsylvania (20) 52.5% 16.1%
Michigan (16) 88.7% 14%
Nevada (6) 87.3% 8.3%
North Carolina (15) 92.9% 6.5%
Arizona (11) 99.9% 1.3%
Nebraska CD-2 (1) 90.7% 0.3%
Florida (29) 99.9% 0.1%
Maine (2) 99.9% 0.1%
Maine CD-2 (1) 60.1% 0.1%
Minnesota (10) 99.9% 0.1%
Iowa (6) 99.9% 0.1%
Nebraska CD-1 (1) 68.9% 0.1%



About

Every 2 minutes we get the latest vote count in every state. We then re-run our 20,000 simulations of the election to project who's most likely to win each state and the election overall. Your screen will update automatically with the latest info (so no need to hit refresh).

As we get more votes in, we'll defer to the vote count more (rather than the polls) and start narrowing the range our model tests in its simulations.

Some other more detailed info we'd like to note:

Vote Count vs Polls
The vote count slowly takes over the polls in our live projection, very slowly at first (as the early numbers may be all over the place), but as we get more of the total vote in, the vote count will take over. The chart below shows about how much of our projection is votes at each reporting level:

% Reporting % of Projection That Is Votes
10% 0.4%
20% 1.4%
30% 3.9%
40% 9.3%
50% 19.6%
60% 35.7%
70% 55.1%
80% 72.7%
90% 85%

Calling States
A state isn't 'called' in our projections until a TV network calls it. If a state wasn't 'Safe' before the election, the live election night projection will max out at a 99.9% probability until it's actually called.

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