Live Election Night Forecast
This is how election night went in 2020. We've stopped updating it, but may include state calls as they come.
Use the History area on the left to look at what the forecast showed at specific times in the evening.
Check out the States section to see state level polling errors and swings from 2016.
You can also checkout our Pollsters area to see how different pollsters did in 2020.
Last Updated 11/4 12:04 AM EDT
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History
The lighter states haven't been called yet, but are shaded based upon our projection.
The darker states have been called.
+75,766
+380,959
+107,497
+583,102
+94,613
+207,794
+357,637
+285,811
+231,319
+556,497
+2,745
Non-Swing States
+1,931
+7,488
+19,396
Awaiting Votes
Called States
Election Night Forecast Changes
This is how the forecast has changed throughout the evening (and days?), all times are EST.
Electoral College Votes
Electoral College Simulations
Here are all the electoral college outcomes the forecast currently projects.
It's updated each time we update the live forecast.
Popular Vote
Here's how the popular vote leader has changed throughout the night.
Tipping Point States
Which uncalled state will decide the election?
| State | Projection | Tipping % |
|---|---|---|
| Wisconsin (10) | 80.8% | 53.1% |
| Pennsylvania (20) | 52.5% | 16.1% |
| Michigan (16) | 88.7% | 14% |
| Nevada (6) | 87.3% | 8.3% |
| North Carolina (15) | 92.9% | 6.5% |
| Arizona (11) | 99.9% | 1.3% |
| Nebraska CD-2 (1) | 90.7% | 0.3% |
| Florida (29) | 99.9% | 0.1% |
| Maine (2) | 99.9% | 0.1% |
| Maine CD-2 (1) | 60.1% | 0.1% |
| Minnesota (10) | 99.9% | 0.1% |
| Iowa (6) | 99.9% | 0.1% |
| Nebraska CD-1 (1) | 68.9% | 0.1% |
About
Every 2 minutes we get the latest vote count in every state. We then re-run our 20,000 simulations of the election to project who's most likely to win each state and the election overall. Your screen will update automatically with the latest info (so no need to hit refresh).
As we get more votes in, we'll defer to the vote count more (rather than the polls) and start narrowing the range our model tests in its simulations.
Some other more detailed info we'd like to note:
Vote Count vs Polls
The vote count slowly takes over the polls in our live projection, very slowly at first (as the early numbers may be all over the place), but as we get more of the total vote in, the vote count will take over. The chart below shows about how much of our projection is votes at each reporting level:
| % Reporting | % of Projection That Is Votes |
|---|---|
| 10% | 0.4% |
| 20% | 1.4% |
| 30% | 3.9% |
| 40% | 9.3% |
| 50% | 19.6% |
| 60% | 35.7% |
| 70% | 55.1% |
| 80% | 72.7% |
| 90% | 85% |
Calling States
A state isn't 'called' in our projections until a TV network calls it. If a state wasn't 'Safe' before the election, the live election night projection will max out at a 99.9% probability until it's actually called.
