Live Election Night Forecast

This is how election night went in 2020. We've stopped updating it, but may include state calls as they come.
Use the History area on the left to look at what the forecast showed at specific times in the evening.
Check out the States section to see state level polling errors and swings from 2016.
You can also checkout our Pollsters area to see how different pollsters did in 2020. Last Updated 11/6 11:12 AM EST


Biden
Trump
Biden
Trump
270
|
|
|
|
|
264
Electoral Votes
214
Electoral Votes
94.1% Chance of Winning
5.9%  

History

5:50 PM 6:24 PM 6:36 PM 6:48 PM 6:58 PM 7:09 PM 7:14 PM 7:19 PM 7:24 PM 7:29 PM 7:34 PM 7:39 PM 7:44 PM 7:49 PM 7:54 PM 7:59 PM 8:04 PM 8:09 PM 8:14 PM 8:19 PM 8:24 PM 8:29 PM 8:34 PM 8:39 PM 8:44 PM 8:49 PM 8:54 PM 8:59 PM 9:04 PM 9:09 PM 9:14 PM 9:19 PM 9:24 PM 9:29 PM 9:34 PM 9:39 PM 9:44 PM 9:49 PM 9:54 PM 9:59 PM 10:04 PM 10:09 PM 10:14 PM 10:19 PM 10:24 PM 10:29 PM 10:34 PM 10:39 PM 10:44 PM 10:49 PM 10:54 PM 10:59 PM 11:04 PM 11:09 PM 11:14 PM 11:24 PM 11:35 PM 11:44 PM 11:54 PM 12:04 AM 12:14 AM 12:24 AM 12:30 AM 12:40 AM 12:50 AM 1:00 AM 1:06 AM 1:16 AM 1:26 AM 1:34 AM 1:44 AM 1:54 AM 2:04 AM 2:12 AM 2:22 AM 2:32 AM 2:42 AM 2:52 AM 3:02 AM 3:12 AM 3:22 AM 3:32 AM 3:42 AM 3:52 AM 4:02 AM 4:12 AM 4:22 AM 4:32 AM 4:42 AM 4:58 AM 5:08 AM 5:18 AM 5:30 AM 5:40 AM 5:50 AM 6:00 AM 6:10 AM 6:32 AM 6:38 AM 6:56 AM 7:14 AM 7:46 AM 8:12 AM 8:56 AM 9:08 AM 9:24 AM 9:46 AM 10:02 AM 10:16 AM 10:26 AM 10:38 AM 10:48 AM 11:04 AM 11:18 AM 11:28 AM 11:38 AM 11:54 AM 12:04 PM 12:14 PM 12:28 PM 12:42 PM 12:52 PM 1:04 PM 1:18 PM 1:30 PM 1:42 PM 1:56 PM 2:08 PM 2:16 PM 2:28 PM 2:38 PM 2:48 PM 3:04 PM 3:14 PM 3:24 PM 3:34 PM 3:44 PM 3:54 PM 4:06 PM 4:18 PM 4:28 PM 4:42 PM 4:52 PM 5:02 PM 5:12 PM 5:24 PM 5:34 PM 5:44 PM 5:58 PM 6:10 PM 6:22 PM 6:32 PM 6:42 PM 6:52 PM 6:58 PM 7:10 PM 7:22 PM 7:32 PM 7:44 PM 7:56 PM 8:06 PM 8:20 PM 8:34 PM 8:50 PM 9:18 PM 9:36 PM 9:56 PM 10:14 PM 10:38 PM 10:48 PM 10:58 PM 11:10 PM 11:30 PM 11:56 PM 12:26 AM 1:08 AM 5:56 AM 8:32 AM 9:00 AM 9:28 AM 9:48 AM 10:10 AM 10:24 AM 10:50 AM 11:08 AM 11:30 AM 11:44 AM 11:56 AM 12:12 PM 12:22 PM 12:38 PM 12:56 PM 1:14 PM 1:28 PM 1:52 PM 2:16 PM 2:28 PM 2:40 PM 2:56 PM 3:08 PM 3:18 PM 3:30 PM 3:42 PM 3:52 PM 4:02 PM 4:12 PM 4:22 PM 4:32 PM 4:44 PM 4:54 PM 5:04 PM 5:20 PM 5:30 PM 5:46 PM 5:56 PM 6:12 PM 6:42 PM 7:00 PM 7:16 PM 7:32 PM 7:48 PM 8:00 PM 8:24 PM 8:38 PM 9:00 PM 9:18 PM 9:58 PM 10:28 PM 10:44 PM 11:08 PM 11:52 PM 1:42 AM 6:02 AM 8:34 AM 8:52 AM 9:20 AM 9:50 AM 10:02 AM 10:26 AM 10:42 AM 10:52 AM 11:12 AM 11:34 AM 11:48 AM 12:04 PM 12:20 PM 12:32 PM 12:48 PM 1:04 PM 1:16 PM 1:28 PM 1:44 PM 1:54 PM 2:06 PM 2:18 PM 2:30 PM 2:46 PM 3:00 PM 3:12 PM 3:22 PM 3:32 PM 3:46 PM 3:56 PM 4:08 PM 4:18 PM 4:30 PM 4:40 PM 4:52 PM 5:02 PM 5:14 PM 5:24 PM 5:34 PM 5:52 PM 6:06 PM 6:16 PM 6:30 PM 6:42 PM 6:56 PM 7:16 PM 7:30 PM 7:42 PM 8:00 PM 8:12 PM 8:28 PM 8:42 PM 9:08 PM 9:36 PM 9:42 PM 9:46 PM 9:52 PM 10:00 PM 10:12 PM 10:26 PM 10:28 PM 10:42 PM 12:14 AM 12:38 AM 2:46 AM 6:16 AM 9:00 AM 9:02 AM 9:04 AM 9:20 AM 9:50 AM 9:58 AM 10:00 AM 10:02 AM 10:10 AM 10:12 AM 10:20 AM 10:30 AM 10:32 AM 10:38 AM 10:40 AM 10:50 AM 10:54 AM 11:04 AM 11:24 AM 11:26 AM 11:30 AM 12:00 PM 12:06 PM 12:12 PM 12:16 PM 1:06 PM 1:16 PM 11:56 AM 11:59 AM 1:06 PM 12:00 AM 11:26 AM 5:16 PM 12:36 PM 10:51 AM 3:29 PM 1:17 PM 12:03 PM 11:46 AM 12:28 PM 9:00 PM 9:02 PM 2:56 PM 10:31 AM 9:11 AM 9:21 AM 10:26 AM

The lighter states haven't been called yet, but are shaded based upon our projection.
The darker states have been called.

NE Districts
01 02 03
ME Districts
01 02
Georgia (16)
Biden
 
Trump
40.6%
Projection
59.4%
49.4%
+1,586
Vote
 
49.4%
 
47.8% +0.2%
Polls
47.6%
99% Reporting
Pennsylvania (20)
Biden
 
Trump
79.6%
Projection
20.4%
49.4% +0.1%
+6,802
Vote
 
49.3%
 
50.2% +4.6%
Polls
45.6%
95% Reporting
Nevada (6)
Biden
 
Trump
89.3%
Projection
10.7%
49.4% +0.9%
+11,438
Vote
 
48.5%
 
49.4% +4.6%
Polls
44.8%
89% Reporting
North Carolina (15)
Biden
 
Trump
7.2%
Projection
92.8%
48.6%
 
Vote
 
+1.4% 50%
+76,737
48.7% +1.6%
Polls
47.1%
95% Reporting

Non-Swing States

Alaska (3)
Biden
 
Trump
0%
Projection
100%
33%
 
Vote
 
+29.9% 62.9%
+51,382
42.7%
Polls
+8.3% 51%
56% Reporting

Called States

Alabama (9)
Winner
Trump
Arizona (11)
Winner
Biden
Arkansas (6)
Winner
Trump
California (55)
Winner
Biden
Colorado (9)
Winner
Biden
Connecticut (7)
Winner
Biden
Delaware (3)
Winner
Biden
Florida (29)
Winner
Trump
Hawaii (4)
Winner
Biden
Idaho (4)
Winner
Trump
Illinois (20)
Winner
Biden
Indiana (11)
Winner
Trump
Iowa (6)
Winner
Trump
Kansas (6)
Winner
Trump
Kentucky (8)
Winner
Trump
Louisiana (8)
Winner
Trump
Maine (2)
Winner
Biden
Maine CD-1 (1)
Winner
Biden
Maine CD-2 (1)
Winner
Trump
Maryland (10)
Winner
Biden
Massachusetts (11)
Winner
Biden
Michigan (16)
Winner
Biden
Minnesota (10)
Winner
Biden
Mississippi (6)
Winner
Trump
Missouri (10)
Winner
Trump
Montana (3)
Winner
Trump
Nebraska (2)
Winner
Trump
Nebraska CD-1 (1)
Winner
Trump
Nebraska CD-2 (1)
Winner
Biden
Nebraska CD-3 (1)
Winner
Trump
New Hampshire (4)
Winner
Biden
New Jersey (14)
Winner
Biden
New Mexico (5)
Winner
Biden
New York (29)
Winner
Biden
North Dakota (3)
Winner
Trump
Ohio (18)
Winner
Trump
Oklahoma (7)
Winner
Trump
Oregon (7)
Winner
Biden
Rhode Island (4)
Winner
Biden
South Carolina (9)
Winner
Trump
South Dakota (3)
Winner
Trump
Tennessee (11)
Winner
Trump
Texas (38)
Winner
Trump
Utah (6)
Winner
Trump
Vermont (3)
Winner
Biden
Virginia (13)
Winner
Biden
Washington (12)
Winner
Biden
West Virginia (5)
Winner
Trump
Wisconsin (10)
Winner
Biden
Wyoming (3)
Winner
Trump

Election Night Forecast Changes

This is how the forecast has changed throughout the evening (and days?), all times are EST.





Electoral College Votes

Biden 264
290
292.8
351
Trump 214
248
245.1
187


Electoral College Simulations

Here are all the electoral college outcomes the forecast currently projects.
It's updated each time we update the live forecast.



Popular Vote

Here's how the popular vote leader has changed throughout the night.



Updates

We'll be posting updates & interesting tidbits on @electoralpolls



Tipping Point States

Which uncalled state will decide the election?

State Projection Tipping %
Nevada (6) 89.3% 82.7%
Pennsylvania (20) 79.6% 14.9%
Georgia (16) 59.4% 2.2%
North Carolina (15) 92.8% 0.2%



States

Here's a more detailed list of all the states, their current votes, their projection, how results compared to the polls (currently), and the change from 2016 (currently).

State Votes Leader Projection % Results v. Polls Change from 2016
District of Columbia (3) 92.6%
258,561
5.2%
14,449
+87.4%
+244,112
100% 80% D+6.2% D+1%
Vermont (3) 64.9%
227,231
31.7%
111,131
+33.2%
+116,100
100% 95% R+1.1% D+6.8%
Massachusetts (11) 65.3%
2,231,877
32.4%
1,108,061
+32.9%
+1,123,816
100% 92% R+1.7% D+5.7%
California (55) 65.1%
8,180,018
33%
4,152,425
+32.1%
+4,027,593
100% 77% D+4.3% D+2%
Hawaii (4) 63.7%
365,802
34.3%
196,602
+29.4%
+169,200
100% 99% R+1% R+2.8%
Maryland (10) 63.1%
1,367,129
35.1%
759,962
+28%
+607,167
100% 70% R+1.4% D+1.6%
Washington (12) 59.5%
2,230,969
38%
1,426,175
+21.5%
+804,794
100% 93% R+0.2% D+5.8%
New Jersey (14) 59.4%
1,945,245
39.2%
1,283,095
+20.2%
+662,150
100% 73% D+1% D+6.2%
Rhode Island (4) 59.4%
297,073
39.2%
195,997
+20.2%
+101,076
100% 96% R+3.2% D+4.7%
Maine CD-1 (1) - - - 100% 0%
Connecticut (7) 58.7%
1,014,149
39.7%
686,022
+19%
+328,127
100% 93% R+3.8% D+5.3%
Delaware (3) 58.8%
295,413
39.8%
199,857
+19%
+95,556
100% 99% D+1.7% D+7.6%
New York (29) 58.3%
4,235,888
40.4%
2,933,947
+17.9%
+1,301,941
100% 84% R+9.9% R+4.6%
Oregon (7) 56.6%
1,301,643
40.3%
925,017
+16.3%
+376,626
100% 97% R+1.6% D+5.3%
Colorado (9) 55.2%
1,732,556
42.1%
1,320,831
+13.1%
+411,725
100% 94% D+0.9% D+8.2%
Illinois (20) 55.1%
2,955,399
43%
2,306,035
+12.1%
+649,364
100% 88% R+2.2% R+4.9%
New Mexico (5) 54.2%
499,903
43.6%
402,312
+10.6%
+97,591
100% 99% R+0.9% D+2.3%
Maine (2) 53.6%
416,394
43.3%
336,125
+10.3%
+80,269
100% 90% R+1.4% D+7.4%
Virginia (13) 53.9%
2,363,723
44.5%
1,951,915
+9.4%
+411,808
100% 99% R+1.6% D+4.1%
Nebraska CD-2 (1) 52.8%
0
45.3%
0
+7.5%
+0
100% 94.1% D+3.3% D+9.8%
Minnesota (10) 52.5%
1,717,474
45.4%
1,484,771
+7.1%
+232,703
100% 96% R+1.4% D+5.6%
New Hampshire (4) 52.6%
420,094
45.5%
363,469
+7.1%
+56,625
100% 99% R+1.9% D+6.7%
Michigan (16) 50.5%
2,795,714
47.9%
2,648,818
+2.6%
+146,896
100% 99% R+4.4% D+2.8%
Arizona (11) 50%
1,561,147
48.6%
1,517,368
+1.4%
+43,779
100% 92% R+0.9% D+5%
Nevada (6) 49.4%
604,251
48.5%
592,813
+0.9%
+11,438
89.3% 89% R+3.7% R+0.6%
Wisconsin (10) Tipping Point 49.4%
1,630,541
48.8%
1,610,007
+0.6%
+20,534
100% 99% R+6.7% D+1.3%
Pennsylvania (20) 49.4%
3,297,652
49.3%
3,290,850
+0.1%
+6,802
79.6% 95% R+4.5% D+0.8%
Georgia (16) 49.4%
2,450,144
49.4%
2,448,558
+0%
+1,586
58.8% 99% R+0.2% D+5.2%
North Carolina (15) 48.6%
2,655,383
50%
2,732,120
+1.4%
+76,737
92.8% 95% R+3% D+2.2%
Florida (29) 47.8%
5,269,926
51.2%
5,646,949
+3.4%
+377,023
100% 96% R+5.6% R+2.2%
Texas (38) 46.4%
5,222,058
52.2%
5,876,777
+5.8%
+654,719
100% 97% R+4.3% D+3.2%
Maine CD-2 (1) 45.3%
0
51.2%
0
+5.9%
+0
100% 47.4% R+8% D+4.4%
Ohio (18) 45.2%
2,576,590
53.3%
3,038,247
+8.1%
+461,657
100% 90% R+6.8% 0%
Iowa (6) 44.9%
757,689
53.1%
896,366
+8.2%
+138,677
100% 92% R+7.5% D+1.3%
South Carolina (9) 43.5%
1,088,247
55.1%
1,379,071
+11.6%
+290,824
100% 99% R+3.8% D+2.6%
Nebraska CD-1 (1) 42.2%
0
55.4%
0
+13.2%
+0
100% 95% R+11.4% D+7.5%
Kansas (6) 41.1%
542,646
56.7%
748,608
+15.6%
+205,962
100% 99% R+3% D+5%
Missouri (10) 41.3%
1,242,851
56.9%
1,711,847
+15.6%
+468,996
100% 99% R+6.2% D+3.1%
Indiana (11) 40.9%
1,239,224
57%
1,725,783
+16.1%
+486,559
100% 99% R+4.9% D+2.8%
Montana (3) 40.4%
243,714
56.7%
341,763
+16.3%
+98,049
100% 99% R+9.7% D+4.1%
Louisiana (8) 39.8%
855,597
58.5%
1,255,482
+18.7%
+399,885
100% 99% D+5.6% D+0.9%
Nebraska (2) 39.1%
362,038
58.7%
544,150
+19.6%
+182,112
100% 98% R+2.5% D+5.5%
Mississippi (6) 38.8%
414,781
59.6%
637,163
+20.8%
+222,382
100% 80% R+1.9% R+3%
Utah (6) 37.5%
440,012
58.5%
685,707
+21%
+245,695
100% 87% R+8.9% R+3%
Tennessee (11) 37.4%
1,139,364
60.7%
1,849,791
+23.3%
+710,427
100% 99% R+6.6% D+2.7%
Alabama (9) 36.3%
834,968
62.3%
1,430,540
+26%
+595,572
100% 99% R+5.5% D+1.7%
South Dakota (3) 35.6%
150,470
61.8%
261,108
+26.2%
+110,638
100% 99% R+6.6% D+3.6%
Kentucky (8) 35.6%
755,796
62.7%
1,330,120
+27.1%
+574,324
100% 96% R+9.3% D+2.7%
Arkansas (6) 34.5%
420,984
62.7%
764,246
+28.2%
+343,262
100% 99% D+0.3% R+1.3%
Alaska (3) 33%
56,849
62.9%
108,231
+29.9%
+51,382
100% 56% R+21.6% R+15.2%
Idaho (4) 33.2%
286,504
63.7%
549,633
+30.5%
+263,129
100% 99% R+5.5% D+1.3%
Oklahoma (7) 32.3%
503,289
65.4%
1,018,870
+33.1%
+515,581
100% 96% R+4.2% D+3.3%
North Dakota (3) 31.7%
114,687
65%
234,962
+33.3%
+120,275
100% 91% R+10.5% D+2.5%
West Virginia (5) 29.6%
232,502
68.6%
539,610
+39%
+307,108
100% 99% R+9.5% D+3.1%
Wyoming (3) 26.6%
73,445
70%
193,454
+43.4%
+120,009
100% 99% R+8.6% D+2.4%
Nebraska CD-3 (1) - - - 100% 0%
Average R+3.8% D+2.6%
Average (Swing States) R+4% D+3.3%


About

Every 2 minutes we get the latest vote count in every state. We then re-run our 20,000 simulations of the election to project who's most likely to win each state and the election overall. Your screen will update automatically with the latest info (so no need to hit refresh).

As we get more votes in, we'll defer to the vote count more (rather than the polls) and start narrowing the range our model tests in its simulations.

Some other more detailed info we'd like to note:

Vote Count vs Polls
The vote count slowly takes over the polls in our live projection, very slowly at first (as the early numbers may be all over the place), but as we get more of the total vote in, the vote count will take over. The chart below shows about how much of our projection is votes at each reporting level:

% Reporting % of Projection That Is Votes
10% 0.4%
20% 1.4%
30% 3.9%
40% 9.3%
50% 19.6%
60% 35.7%
70% 55.1%
80% 72.7%
90% 85%

Calling States
A state isn't 'called' in our projections until a TV network calls it. If a state wasn't 'Safe' before the election, the live election night projection will max out at a 99.9% probability until it's actually called.

;