Live Election Night Forecast

This is how election night went in 2020. We've stopped updating it, but may include state calls as they come.
Use the History area on the left to look at what the forecast showed at specific times in the evening.
Check out the States section to see state level polling errors and swings from 2016.
You can also checkout our Pollsters area to see how different pollsters did in 2020. Last Updated 11/18 11:46 AM EST


Biden
Trump
Biden
Trump
270
|
|
|
|
|
306
Electoral Votes
232
Electoral Votes
100% Chance of Winning

History

5:50 PM 6:24 PM 6:36 PM 6:48 PM 6:58 PM 7:09 PM 7:14 PM 7:19 PM 7:24 PM 7:29 PM 7:34 PM 7:39 PM 7:44 PM 7:49 PM 7:54 PM 7:59 PM 8:04 PM 8:09 PM 8:14 PM 8:19 PM 8:24 PM 8:29 PM 8:34 PM 8:39 PM 8:44 PM 8:49 PM 8:54 PM 8:59 PM 9:04 PM 9:09 PM 9:14 PM 9:19 PM 9:24 PM 9:29 PM 9:34 PM 9:39 PM 9:44 PM 9:49 PM 9:54 PM 9:59 PM 10:04 PM 10:09 PM 10:14 PM 10:19 PM 10:24 PM 10:29 PM 10:34 PM 10:39 PM 10:44 PM 10:49 PM 10:54 PM 10:59 PM 11:04 PM 11:09 PM 11:14 PM 11:24 PM 11:35 PM 11:44 PM 11:54 PM 12:04 AM 12:14 AM 12:24 AM 12:30 AM 12:40 AM 12:50 AM 1:00 AM 1:06 AM 1:16 AM 1:26 AM 1:34 AM 1:44 AM 1:54 AM 2:04 AM 2:12 AM 2:22 AM 2:32 AM 2:42 AM 2:52 AM 3:02 AM 3:12 AM 3:22 AM 3:32 AM 3:42 AM 3:52 AM 4:02 AM 4:12 AM 4:22 AM 4:32 AM 4:42 AM 4:58 AM 5:08 AM 5:18 AM 5:30 AM 5:40 AM 5:50 AM 6:00 AM 6:10 AM 6:32 AM 6:38 AM 6:56 AM 7:14 AM 7:46 AM 8:12 AM 8:56 AM 9:08 AM 9:24 AM 9:46 AM 10:02 AM 10:16 AM 10:26 AM 10:38 AM 10:48 AM 11:04 AM 11:18 AM 11:28 AM 11:38 AM 11:54 AM 12:04 PM 12:14 PM 12:28 PM 12:42 PM 12:52 PM 1:04 PM 1:18 PM 1:30 PM 1:42 PM 1:56 PM 2:08 PM 2:16 PM 2:28 PM 2:38 PM 2:48 PM 3:04 PM 3:14 PM 3:24 PM 3:34 PM 3:44 PM 3:54 PM 4:06 PM 4:18 PM 4:28 PM 4:42 PM 4:52 PM 5:02 PM 5:12 PM 5:24 PM 5:34 PM 5:44 PM 5:58 PM 6:10 PM 6:22 PM 6:32 PM 6:42 PM 6:52 PM 6:58 PM 7:10 PM 7:22 PM 7:32 PM 7:44 PM 7:56 PM 8:06 PM 8:20 PM 8:34 PM 8:50 PM 9:18 PM 9:36 PM 9:56 PM 10:14 PM 10:38 PM 10:48 PM 10:58 PM 11:10 PM 11:30 PM 11:56 PM 12:26 AM 1:08 AM 5:56 AM 8:32 AM 9:00 AM 9:28 AM 9:48 AM 10:10 AM 10:24 AM 10:50 AM 11:08 AM 11:30 AM 11:44 AM 11:56 AM 12:12 PM 12:22 PM 12:38 PM 12:56 PM 1:14 PM 1:28 PM 1:52 PM 2:16 PM 2:28 PM 2:40 PM 2:56 PM 3:08 PM 3:18 PM 3:30 PM 3:42 PM 3:52 PM 4:02 PM 4:12 PM 4:22 PM 4:32 PM 4:44 PM 4:54 PM 5:04 PM 5:20 PM 5:30 PM 5:46 PM 5:56 PM 6:12 PM 6:42 PM 7:00 PM 7:16 PM 7:32 PM 7:48 PM 8:00 PM 8:24 PM 8:38 PM 9:00 PM 9:18 PM 9:58 PM 10:28 PM 10:44 PM 11:08 PM 11:52 PM 1:42 AM 6:02 AM 8:34 AM 8:52 AM 9:20 AM 9:50 AM 10:02 AM 10:26 AM 10:42 AM 10:52 AM 11:12 AM 11:34 AM 11:48 AM 12:04 PM 12:20 PM 12:32 PM 12:48 PM 1:04 PM 1:16 PM 1:28 PM 1:44 PM 1:54 PM 2:06 PM 2:18 PM 2:30 PM 2:46 PM 3:00 PM 3:12 PM 3:22 PM 3:32 PM 3:46 PM 3:56 PM 4:08 PM 4:18 PM 4:30 PM 4:40 PM 4:52 PM 5:02 PM 5:14 PM 5:24 PM 5:34 PM 5:52 PM 6:06 PM 6:16 PM 6:30 PM 6:42 PM 6:56 PM 7:16 PM 7:30 PM 7:42 PM 8:00 PM 8:12 PM 8:28 PM 8:42 PM 9:08 PM 9:36 PM 9:42 PM 9:46 PM 9:52 PM 10:00 PM 10:12 PM 10:26 PM 10:28 PM 10:42 PM 12:14 AM 12:38 AM 2:46 AM 6:16 AM 9:00 AM 9:02 AM 9:04 AM 9:20 AM 9:50 AM 9:58 AM 10:00 AM 10:02 AM 10:10 AM 10:12 AM 10:20 AM 10:30 AM 10:32 AM 10:38 AM 10:40 AM 10:50 AM 10:54 AM 11:04 AM 11:24 AM 11:26 AM 11:30 AM 12:00 PM 12:06 PM 12:12 PM 12:16 PM 1:06 PM 1:16 PM 11:56 AM 11:59 AM 1:06 PM 12:00 AM 11:26 AM 5:16 PM 12:36 PM 10:51 AM 3:29 PM 1:17 PM 12:03 PM 11:46 AM 12:28 PM 9:00 PM 9:02 PM 2:56 PM 10:31 AM 9:11 AM 9:21 AM 10:26 AM

The lighter states haven't been called yet, but are shaded based upon our projection.
The darker states have been called.

NE Districts
01 02 03
ME Districts
01 02

Called States

Alabama (9)
Winner
Trump
Alaska (3)
Winner
Trump
Arizona (11)
Winner
Biden
Arkansas (6)
Winner
Trump
California (55)
Winner
Biden
Colorado (9)
Winner
Biden
Connecticut (7)
Winner
Biden
Delaware (3)
Winner
Biden
Florida (29)
Winner
Trump
Georgia (16)
Winner
Biden
Hawaii (4)
Winner
Biden
Idaho (4)
Winner
Trump
Illinois (20)
Winner
Biden
Indiana (11)
Winner
Trump
Iowa (6)
Winner
Trump
Kansas (6)
Winner
Trump
Kentucky (8)
Winner
Trump
Louisiana (8)
Winner
Trump
Maine (2)
Winner
Biden
Maine CD-1 (1)
Winner
Biden
Maine CD-2 (1)
Winner
Trump
Maryland (10)
Winner
Biden
Massachusetts (11)
Winner
Biden
Michigan (16)
Winner
Biden
Minnesota (10)
Winner
Biden
Mississippi (6)
Winner
Trump
Missouri (10)
Winner
Trump
Montana (3)
Winner
Trump
Nebraska (2)
Winner
Trump
Nebraska CD-1 (1)
Winner
Trump
Nebraska CD-2 (1)
Winner
Biden
Nebraska CD-3 (1)
Winner
Trump
Nevada (6)
Winner
Biden
New Hampshire (4)
Winner
Biden
New Jersey (14)
Winner
Biden
New Mexico (5)
Winner
Biden
New York (29)
Winner
Biden
North Carolina (15)
Winner
Trump
North Dakota (3)
Winner
Trump
Ohio (18)
Winner
Trump
Oklahoma (7)
Winner
Trump
Oregon (7)
Winner
Biden
Pennsylvania (20)
Winner
Biden
Rhode Island (4)
Winner
Biden
South Carolina (9)
Winner
Trump
South Dakota (3)
Winner
Trump
Tennessee (11)
Winner
Trump
Texas (38)
Winner
Trump
Utah (6)
Winner
Trump
Vermont (3)
Winner
Biden
Virginia (13)
Winner
Biden
Washington (12)
Winner
Biden
West Virginia (5)
Winner
Trump
Wisconsin (10)
Winner
Biden
Wyoming (3)
Winner
Trump

Election Night Forecast Changes

This is how the forecast has changed throughout the evening (and days?), all times are EST.





Electoral College Votes

Biden 306
306
306
351
Trump 232
232
232
187


Electoral College Simulations

Here are all the electoral college outcomes the forecast currently projects.
It's updated each time we update the live forecast.



Popular Vote

Here's how the popular vote leader has changed throughout the night.



Updates

We'll be posting updates & interesting tidbits on @electoralpolls



Tipping Point States

Which uncalled state will decide the election?

State Projection Tipping %



States

Here's a more detailed list of all the states, their current votes, their projection, how results compared to the polls (currently), and the change from 2016 (currently).

State Votes Leader Projection % Results v. Polls Change from 2016
District of Columbia (3) 92.1%
307,265
5.4%
18,172
+86.7%
+289,093
100% 95% D+5.5% D+0.3%
Vermont (3) 66.1%
242,820
30.7%
112,704
+35.4%
+130,116
100% 99% D+1.1% D+9%
Massachusetts (11) 65.2%
2,288,881
32.5%
1,140,164
+32.7%
+1,148,717
100% 94% R+1.9% D+5.5%
Maryland (10) 65.3%
1,917,406
32.7%
960,681
+32.6%
+956,725
100% 94% D+3.2% D+6.2%
California (55) 63.7%
10,933,242
34.2%
5,871,037
+29.5%
+5,062,205
100% 99% D+1.7% R+0.6%
Hawaii (4) 63.7%
366,070
34.3%
196,800
+29.4%
+169,270
100% 99% R+1% R+2.8%
Maine CD-1 (1) 60%
0
37%
0
+23%
+0
100% 96% D+2.9% D+15.1%
Rhode Island (4) 59.6%
306,192
38.9%
199,830
+20.7%
+106,362
100% 99% R+2.7% D+5.2%
Connecticut (7) 59.2%
1,080,387
39.2%
714,973
+20%
+365,414
100% 99% R+2.8% D+6.3%
Washington (12) 58.4%
2,361,607
39%
1,577,621
+19.4%
+783,986
100% 99% R+2.3% D+3.7%
Delaware (3) 58.8%
296,268
39.8%
200,603
+19%
+95,665
100% 99% D+1.7% D+7.6%
Illinois (20) 57.3%
3,405,146
40.7%
2,419,884
+16.6%
+985,262
100% 97% D+2.3% R+0.4%
Oregon (7) 56.6%
1,333,563
40.4%
952,542
+16.2%
+381,021
100% 98% R+1.7% D+5.2%
New Jersey (14) 57.1%
2,506,955
41.3%
1,815,124
+15.8%
+691,831
100% 98% R+3.4% D+1.8%
New York (29) 56.4%
3,908,047
42.1%
2,919,058
+14.3%
+988,989
100% 84% R+13.5% R+8.2%
Colorado (9) 55.4%
1,803,921
41.9%
1,364,202
+13.5%
+439,719
100% 99% D+1.3% D+8.6%
New Mexico (5) 54.3%
501,460
43.5%
401,815
+10.8%
+99,645
100% 99% R+0.7% D+2.5%
Virginia (13) 54.2%
2,413,973
44%
1,962,571
+10.2%
+451,402
100% 99% R+0.8% D+4.9%
Maine (2) 53.5%
420,357
43.5%
341,949
+10%
+78,408
100% 91% R+1.7% D+7.1%
New Hampshire (4) 52.8%
424,937
45.5%
365,660
+7.3%
+59,277
100% 99% R+1.7% D+6.9%
Minnesota (10) 52.5%
1,716,312
45.4%
1,483,750
+7.1%
+232,562
100% 99% R+1.4% D+5.6%
Nebraska CD-2 (1) 52%
0
45.5%
0
+6.5%
+0
100% 100% D+2.3% D+8.8%
Michigan (16) 50.5%
2,797,153
47.9%
2,649,001
+2.6%
+148,152
100% 99% R+4.4% D+2.8%
Nevada (6) 50.1%
703,486
47.7%
669,890
+2.4%
+33,596
100% 99% R+2.2% D+0.9%
Pennsylvania (20) 50%
3,445,191
48.8%
3,363,064
+1.2%
+82,127
100% 99% R+3.4% D+1.9%
Wisconsin (10) Tipping Point 49.5%
1,630,716
48.8%
1,610,151
+0.7%
+20,565
100% 99% R+6.6% D+1.4%
Arizona (11) 49.4%
1,672,143
49.1%
1,661,686
+0.3%
+10,457
100% 99% R+2% D+3.9%
Georgia (16) 49.5%
2,472,278
49.2%
2,458,250
+0.3%
+14,028
100% 99% D+0.1% D+5.5%
North Carolina (15) 48.6%
2,684,302
49.9%
2,758,775
+1.3%
+74,473
100% 99% R+2.9% D+2.3%
Florida (29) 47.9%
5,297,045
51.2%
5,668,731
+3.3%
+371,686
100% 99% R+5.5% R+2.1%
Texas (38) 46.4%
5,235,216
52.1%
5,873,085
+5.7%
+637,869
100% 99% R+4.2% D+3.3%
Maine CD-2 (1) 45.1%
0
51.6%
0
+6.5%
+0
100% 69% R+8.6% D+3.8%
Ohio (18) 45.2%
2,603,677
53.3%
3,074,400
+8.1%
+470,723
100% 95% R+6.8% 0%
Iowa (6) 44.9%
758,881
53.2%
897,467
+8.3%
+138,586
100% 98% R+7.6% D+1.2%
Alaska (3) 43%
150,262
53.2%
185,769
+10.2%
+35,507
100% 99% R+1.9% D+4.5%
South Carolina (9) 43.4%
1,091,541
55.1%
1,385,103
+11.7%
+293,562
100% 99% R+3.9% D+2.5%
Nebraska CD-1 (1) 41.3%
0
56.4%
0
+15.1%
+0
100% 99% R+13.3% D+5.6%
Kansas (6) 41.3%
551,199
56.5%
753,370
+15.2%
+202,171
100% 99% R+2.6% D+5.4%
Missouri (10) 41.3%
1,242,851
56.9%
1,711,848
+15.6%
+468,997
100% 99% R+6.2% D+3.1%
Indiana (11) 40.9%
1,241,734
57%
1,729,394
+16.1%
+487,660
100% 99% R+4.9% D+2.8%
Montana (3) 40.4%
244,783
56.7%
343,590
+16.3%
+98,807
100% 99% R+9.7% D+4.1%
Mississippi (6) 40%
508,966
58.5%
744,930
+18.5%
+235,964
100% 99% D+0.4% R+0.7%
Louisiana (8) 39.9%
856,034
58.5%
1,255,776
+18.6%
+399,742
100% 99% D+5.7% D+1%
Nebraska (2) 39.4%
374,169
58.5%
555,509
+19.1%
+181,340
100% 99% R+2% D+6%
Utah (6) 37.7%
560,227
58.2%
865,038
+20.5%
+304,811
100% 99% R+8.4% R+2.5%
Tennessee (11) 37.4%
1,139,376
60.7%
1,849,820
+23.3%
+710,444
100% 99% R+6.6% D+2.7%
Alabama (9) 36.5%
843,473
62.1%
1,434,159
+25.6%
+590,686
100% 99% R+5.1% D+2.1%
Kentucky (8) 36.2%
772,223
62.1%
1,326,347
+25.9%
+554,124
100% 98% R+8.1% D+3.9%
South Dakota (3) 35.6%
150,471
61.8%
261,043
+26.2%
+110,572
100% 99% R+6.6% D+3.6%
Arkansas (6) 34.8%
423,303
62.4%
759,603
+27.6%
+336,300
100% 99% D+0.9% R+0.7%
Idaho (4) 33.1%
287,031
63.8%
554,128
+30.7%
+267,097
100% 99% R+5.7% D+1.1%
Oklahoma (7) 32.3%
503,890
65.4%
1,020,280
+33.1%
+516,390
100% 99% R+4.2% D+3.3%
North Dakota (3) 31.8%
114,902
65.1%
235,595
+33.3%
+120,693
100% 99% R+10.5% D+2.5%
West Virginia (5) 29.7%
235,657
68.6%
544,826
+38.9%
+309,169
100% 99% R+9.4% D+3.2%
Wyoming (3) 26.6%
73,491
69.9%
193,559
+43.3%
+120,068
100% 99% R+8.5% D+2.5%
Nebraska CD-3 (1) 22.3%
0
75.6%
0
+53.3%
+0
100% 96% D+0.9% D+0.9%
Average R+3.2% D+3.2%
Average (Swing States) R+4.1% D+3.2%


About

Every 2 minutes we get the latest vote count in every state. We then re-run our 20,000 simulations of the election to project who's most likely to win each state and the election overall. Your screen will update automatically with the latest info (so no need to hit refresh).

As we get more votes in, we'll defer to the vote count more (rather than the polls) and start narrowing the range our model tests in its simulations.

Some other more detailed info we'd like to note:

Vote Count vs Polls
The vote count slowly takes over the polls in our live projection, very slowly at first (as the early numbers may be all over the place), but as we get more of the total vote in, the vote count will take over. The chart below shows about how much of our projection is votes at each reporting level:

% Reporting % of Projection That Is Votes
10% 0.4%
20% 1.4%
30% 3.9%
40% 9.3%
50% 19.6%
60% 35.7%
70% 55.1%
80% 72.7%
90% 85%

Calling States
A state isn't 'called' in our projections until a TV network calls it. If a state wasn't 'Safe' before the election, the live election night projection will max out at a 99.9% probability until it's actually called.

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