Live Election Night Forecast

This is how election night went in 2020. We've stopped updating it, but may include state calls as they come.
Use the History area on the left to look at what the forecast showed at specific times in the evening.
Check out the States section to see state level polling errors and swings from 2016.
You can also checkout our Pollsters area to see how different pollsters did in 2020. Last Updated 11/19 9:02 PM EDT

Biden

Trump

270
|
|
|
|
|

306

Electoral Votes

232

Electoral Votes

100% Chance of Winning

History

5:50 PM 6:24 PM 6:36 PM 6:48 PM 6:58 PM 7:09 PM 7:14 PM 7:19 PM 7:24 PM 7:29 PM 7:34 PM 7:39 PM 7:44 PM 7:49 PM 7:54 PM 7:59 PM 8:04 PM 8:09 PM 8:14 PM 8:19 PM 8:24 PM 8:29 PM 8:34 PM 8:39 PM 8:44 PM 8:49 PM 8:54 PM 8:59 PM 9:04 PM 9:09 PM 9:14 PM 9:19 PM 9:24 PM 9:29 PM 9:34 PM 9:39 PM 9:44 PM 9:49 PM 9:54 PM 9:59 PM 10:04 PM 10:09 PM 10:14 PM 10:19 PM 10:24 PM 10:29 PM 10:34 PM 10:39 PM 10:44 PM 10:49 PM 10:54 PM 10:59 PM 11:04 PM 11:09 PM 11:14 PM 11:24 PM 11:35 PM 11:44 PM 11:54 PM 12:04 AM 12:14 AM 12:24 AM 12:30 AM 12:40 AM 12:50 AM 1:00 AM 1:06 AM 1:16 AM 1:26 AM 1:34 AM 1:44 AM 1:54 AM 2:04 AM 2:12 AM 2:22 AM 2:32 AM 2:42 AM 2:52 AM 3:02 AM 3:12 AM 3:22 AM 3:32 AM 3:42 AM 3:52 AM 4:02 AM 4:12 AM 4:22 AM 4:32 AM 4:42 AM 4:58 AM 5:08 AM 5:18 AM 5:30 AM 5:40 AM 5:50 AM 6:00 AM 6:10 AM 6:32 AM 6:38 AM 6:56 AM 7:14 AM 7:46 AM 8:12 AM 8:56 AM 9:08 AM 9:24 AM 9:46 AM 10:02 AM 10:16 AM 10:26 AM 10:38 AM 10:48 AM 11:04 AM 11:18 AM 11:28 AM 11:38 AM 11:54 AM 12:04 PM 12:14 PM 12:28 PM 12:42 PM 12:52 PM 1:04 PM 1:18 PM 1:30 PM 1:42 PM 1:56 PM 2:08 PM 2:16 PM 2:28 PM 2:38 PM 2:48 PM 3:04 PM 3:14 PM 3:24 PM 3:34 PM 3:44 PM 3:54 PM 4:06 PM 4:18 PM 4:28 PM 4:42 PM 4:52 PM 5:02 PM 5:12 PM 5:24 PM 5:34 PM 5:44 PM 5:58 PM 6:10 PM 6:22 PM 6:32 PM 6:42 PM 6:52 PM 6:58 PM 7:10 PM 7:22 PM 7:32 PM 7:44 PM 7:56 PM 8:06 PM 8:20 PM 8:34 PM 8:50 PM 9:18 PM 9:36 PM 9:56 PM 10:14 PM 10:38 PM 10:48 PM 10:58 PM 11:10 PM 11:30 PM 11:56 PM 12:26 AM 1:08 AM 5:56 AM 8:32 AM 9:00 AM 9:28 AM 9:48 AM 10:10 AM 10:24 AM 10:50 AM 11:08 AM 11:30 AM 11:44 AM 11:56 AM 12:12 PM 12:22 PM 12:38 PM 12:56 PM 1:14 PM 1:28 PM 1:52 PM 2:16 PM 2:28 PM 2:40 PM 2:56 PM 3:08 PM 3:18 PM 3:30 PM 3:42 PM 3:52 PM 4:02 PM 4:12 PM 4:22 PM 4:32 PM 4:44 PM 4:54 PM 5:04 PM 5:20 PM 5:30 PM 5:46 PM 5:56 PM 6:12 PM 6:42 PM 7:00 PM 7:16 PM 7:32 PM 7:48 PM 8:00 PM 8:24 PM 8:38 PM 9:00 PM 9:18 PM 9:58 PM 10:28 PM 10:44 PM 11:08 PM 11:52 PM 1:42 AM 6:02 AM 8:34 AM 8:52 AM 9:20 AM 9:50 AM 10:02 AM 10:26 AM 10:42 AM 10:52 AM 11:12 AM 11:34 AM 11:48 AM 12:04 PM 12:20 PM 12:32 PM 12:48 PM 1:04 PM 1:16 PM 1:28 PM 1:44 PM 1:54 PM 2:06 PM 2:18 PM 2:30 PM 2:46 PM 3:00 PM 3:12 PM 3:22 PM 3:32 PM 3:46 PM 3:56 PM 4:08 PM 4:18 PM 4:30 PM 4:40 PM 4:52 PM 5:02 PM 5:14 PM 5:24 PM 5:34 PM 5:52 PM 6:06 PM 6:16 PM 6:30 PM 6:42 PM 6:56 PM 7:16 PM 7:30 PM 7:42 PM 8:00 PM 8:12 PM 8:28 PM 8:42 PM 9:08 PM 9:36 PM 10:12 PM 12:14 AM 12:38 AM 2:46 AM 6:16 AM 9:00 AM 9:02 AM 9:04 AM 9:20 AM 9:50 AM 9:58 AM 10:00 AM 10:02 AM 10:10 AM 10:12 AM 10:20 AM 10:30 AM 10:32 AM 10:38 AM 10:40 AM 10:50 AM 10:54 AM 11:04 AM 11:24 AM 11:26 AM 11:30 AM 12:00 PM 12:06 PM 12:12 PM 12:16 PM 1:06 PM 1:16 PM 11:56 AM 11:59 AM 1:06 PM 12:00 AM 11:26 AM 5:16 PM 12:36 PM 10:51 AM 3:29 PM 1:17 PM 12:03 PM 11:46 AM 12:28 PM 9:00 PM 9:02 PM 2:56 PM 10:31 AM 9:11 AM 9:21 AM 10:26 AM 10:26 AM 10:35 AM 2:58 PM 4:33 PM 2:09 PM 11:31 PM 11:45 PM 10:43 AM 11:48 AM

The lighter states haven't been called yet, but are shaded based upon our projection.
The darker states have been called.

NE Districts

01 02 03

ME Districts

01 02

Called States

Alabama (9)

Winner

Trump

Alaska (3)

Winner

Trump

Arizona (11)

Winner

Biden

Arkansas (6)

Winner

Trump

California (55)

Winner

Biden

Colorado (9)

Winner

Biden

Connecticut (7)

Winner

Biden

Delaware (3)

Winner

Biden

District of Columbia (3)

Winner

Biden

Florida (29)

Winner

Trump

Georgia (16)

Winner

Biden

Hawaii (4)

Winner

Biden

Idaho (4)

Winner

Trump

Illinois (20)

Winner

Biden

Indiana (11)

Winner

Trump

Iowa (6)

Winner

Trump

Kansas (6)

Winner

Trump

Kentucky (8)

Winner

Trump

Louisiana (8)

Winner

Trump

Maine (2)

Winner

Biden

Maine CD-1 (1)

Winner

Biden

Maine CD-2 (1)

Winner

Trump

Maryland (10)

Winner

Biden

Massachusetts (11)

Winner

Biden

Michigan (16)

Winner

Biden

Minnesota (10)

Winner

Biden

Mississippi (6)

Winner

Trump

Missouri (10)

Winner

Trump

Montana (3)

Winner

Trump

Nebraska (2)

Winner

Trump

Nebraska CD-1 (1)

Winner

Trump

Nebraska CD-2 (1)

Winner

Biden

Nebraska CD-3 (1)

Winner

Trump

Nevada (6)

Winner

Biden

New Hampshire (4)

Winner

Biden

New Jersey (14)

Winner

Biden

New Mexico (5)

Winner

Biden

New York (29)

Winner

Biden

North Carolina (15)

Winner

Trump

North Dakota (3)

Winner

Trump

Ohio (18)

Winner

Trump

Oklahoma (7)

Winner

Trump

Oregon (7)

Winner

Biden

Pennsylvania (20)

Winner

Biden

Rhode Island (4)

Winner

Biden

South Carolina (9)

Winner

Trump

South Dakota (3)

Winner

Trump

Tennessee (11)

Winner

Trump

Texas (38)

Winner

Trump

Utah (6)

Winner

Trump

Vermont (3)

Winner

Biden

Virginia (13)

Winner

Biden

Washington (12)

Winner

Biden

West Virginia (5)

Winner

Trump

Wisconsin (10)

Winner

Biden

Wyoming (3)

Winner

Trump

Election Night Forecast Changes

This is how the forecast has changed throughout the evening (and days?), all times are EST.

Latest Update

Tweets by electoralpolls

Electoral College Votes

Biden 306

Projection: 306

Estimated: 306

Polls: 351

Trump 232

Projection: 232

Estimated: 232

Polls: 187

Electoral College Simulations

Here are all the electoral college outcomes the forecast currently projects.
It's updated each time we update the live forecast.

Popular Vote

Here's how the popular vote leader has changed throughout the night.

Updates

We'll be posting updates & interesting tidbits on @electoralpolls

Tweets by electoralpolls

Tipping Point States

Which uncalled state will decide the election?

State	Projection	Tipping %

States

Here's a more detailed list of all the states, their current votes, their projection, how results compared to the polls (currently), and the change from 2016 (currently).

	State	Votes		Leader	Projection	%	Results v. Polls	Change from 2016
✓	District of Columbia (3)	92.1% 307,265	5.4% 18,172	+86.7% +289,093	100%	95%	D+5.5%	D+0.3%
✓	Vermont (3)	66.1% 242,820	30.7% 112,704	+35.4% +130,116	100%	99%	D+1.1%	D+9%
✓	Maryland (10)	65.5% 1,939,247	32.6% 965,805	+32.9% +973,442	100%	95%	D+3.5%	D+6.5%
✓	Massachusetts (11)	65.3% 2,319,420	32.4% 1,149,614	+32.9% +1,169,806	100%	95%	R+1.7%	D+5.7%
✓	Hawaii (4)	63.7% 366,130	34.3% 196,864	+29.4% +169,266	100%	99%	R+1%	R+2.8%
✓	California (55)	63.6% 10,950,165	34.2% 5,883,902	+29.4% +5,066,263	100%	99%	D+1.6%	R+0.7%
✓	Maine CD-1 (1)	60% 263,358	37% 162,201	+23% +101,157	100%	96%	D+2.9%	D+15.1%
✓	Rhode Island (4)	59.6% 306,192	38.9% 199,830	+20.7% +106,362	100%	99%	R+2.7%	D+5.2%
✓	Connecticut (7)	59.2% 1,080,387	39.2% 714,973	+20% +365,414	100%	99%	R+2.8%	D+6.3%
✓	Washington (12)	58.4% 2,363,988	39% 1,579,402	+19.4% +784,586	100%	99%	R+2.3%	D+3.7%
✓	Delaware (3)	58.8% 296,268	39.8% 200,603	+19% +95,665	100%	99%	D+1.7%	D+7.6%
✓	Illinois (20)	57.5% 3,443,172	40.6% 2,430,860	+16.9% +1,012,312	100%	98%	D+2.6%	R+0.1%
✓	Oregon (7)	56.5% 1,339,643	40.4% 958,494	+16.1% +381,149	100%	99%	R+1.8%	D+5.1%
✓	New Jersey (14)	57.2% 2,568,742	41.2% 1,849,274	+16% +719,468	100%	99%	R+3.2%	D+2%
✓	New York (29)	56.6% 3,987,255	41.9% 2,948,571	+14.7% +1,038,684	100%	84%	R+13.1%	R+7.8%
✓	Colorado (9)	55.4% 1,803,921	41.9% 1,364,202	+13.5% +439,719	100%	99%	D+1.3%	D+8.6%
✓	New Mexico (5)	54.3% 501,471	43.5% 401,825	+10.8% +99,646	100%	99%	R+0.7%	D+2.5%
✓	Virginia (13)	54.2% 2,413,577	44% 1,962,612	+10.2% +450,965	100%	99%	R+0.8%	D+4.9%
✓	Maine (2)	53.4% 420,588	43.5% 342,325	+9.9% +78,263	100%	92%	R+1.8%	D+7%
✓	New Hampshire (4)	52.8% 424,937	45.5% 365,660	+7.3% +59,277	100%	99%	R+1.7%	D+6.9%
✓	Minnesota (10)	52.5% 1,716,312	45.4% 1,483,750	+7.1% +232,562	100%	99%	R+1.4%	D+5.6%
✓	Nebraska CD-2 (1)	52.4% 175,800	45.5% 152,738	+6.9% +23,062	100%	100%	D+2.7%	D+9.2%
✓	Michigan (16)	50.6% 2,807,309	47.8% 2,649,537	+2.8% +157,772	100%	99%	R+4.2%	D+3%
✓	Nevada (6)	50.1% 703,486	47.7% 669,890	+2.4% +33,596	100%	99%	R+2.2%	D+0.9%
✓	Pennsylvania (20)	50% 3,454,598	48.8% 3,372,688	+1.2% +81,910	100%	99%	R+3.4%	D+1.9%
✓	Wisconsin (10) Tipping Point	49.5% 1,630,716	48.8% 1,610,151	+0.7% +20,565	100%	99%	R+6.6%	D+1.4%
✓	Arizona (11)	49.4% 1,672,143	49.1% 1,661,686	+0.3% +10,457	100%	99%	R+2%	D+3.9%
✓	Georgia (16)	49.5% 2,475,141	49.2% 2,462,857	+0.3% +12,284	100%	99%	D+0.1%	D+5.5%
✓	North Carolina (15)	48.6% 2,684,302	49.9% 2,758,775	+1.3% +74,473	100%	99%	R+2.9%	D+2.3%
✓	Florida (29)	47.9% 5,297,045	51.2% 5,668,731	+3.3% +371,686	100%	99%	R+5.5%	R+2.1%
✓	Texas (38)	46.5% 5,261,055	52% 5,891,778	+5.5% +630,723	100%	99%	R+4%	D+3.5%
✓	Maine CD-2 (1)	45% 156,906	51.7% 180,287	+6.7% +23,381	100%	71%	R+8.8%	D+3.6%
✓	Ohio (18)	45.2% 2,676,916	53.2% 3,148,559	+8% +471,643	100%	97%	R+6.7%	D+0.1%
✓	Iowa (6)	44.9% 758,881	53.2% 897,467	+8.3% +138,586	100%	98%	R+7.6%	D+1.2%
✓	Alaska (3)	43% 153,551	53.1% 189,457	+10.1% +35,906	100%	99%	R+1.8%	D+4.6%
✓	South Carolina (9)	43.4% 1,091,541	55.1% 1,385,103	+11.7% +293,562	100%	99%	R+3.9%	D+2.5%
✓	Nebraska CD-1 (1)	41.4% 131,914	56.3% 179,408	+14.9% +47,494	100%	99%	R+13.1%	D+5.8%
✓	Kansas (6)	41.3% 551,199	56.5% 753,370	+15.2% +202,171	100%	99%	R+2.6%	D+5.4%
✓	Missouri (10)	41.4% 1,252,351	56.7% 1,717,601	+15.3% +465,250	100%	99%	R+5.9%	D+3.4%
✓	Indiana (11)	40.9% 1,241,774	57% 1,729,446	+16.1% +487,672	100%	99%	R+4.9%	D+2.8%
✓	Montana (3)	40.4% 244,786	56.7% 343,602	+16.3% +98,816	100%	99%	R+9.7%	D+4.1%
✓	Mississippi (6)	41% 539,494	57.5% 756,731	+16.5% +217,237	100%	99%	D+2.4%	D+1.3%
✓	Louisiana (8)	39.9% 856,034	58.5% 1,255,776	+18.6% +399,742	100%	99%	D+5.7%	D+1%
✓	Nebraska (2)	39.4% 374,169	58.5% 555,509	+19.1% +181,340	100%	99%	R+2%	D+6%
✓	Utah (6)	37.7% 560,282	58.2% 865,140	+20.5% +304,858	100%	99%	R+8.4%	R+2.5%
✓	Tennessee (11)	37.4% 1,139,376	60.7% 1,849,820	+23.3% +710,444	100%	99%	R+6.6%	D+2.7%
✓	Alabama (9)	36.5% 843,473	62.1% 1,434,159	+25.6% +590,686	100%	99%	R+5.1%	D+2.1%
✓	Kentucky (8)	36.2% 772,223	62.1% 1,326,347	+25.9% +554,124	100%	98%	R+8.1%	D+3.9%
✓	South Dakota (3)	35.6% 150,471	61.8% 261,043	+26.2% +110,572	100%	99%	R+6.6%	D+3.6%
✓	Arkansas (6)	34.8% 423,502	62.4% 759,715	+27.6% +336,213	100%	99%	D+0.9%	R+0.7%
✓	Idaho (4)	33.1% 287,031	63.8% 554,128	+30.7% +267,097	100%	99%	R+5.7%	D+1.1%
✓	Oklahoma (7)	32.3% 503,890	65.4% 1,020,280	+33.1% +516,390	100%	99%	R+4.2%	D+3.3%
✓	North Dakota (3)	31.8% 114,902	65.1% 235,595	+33.3% +120,693	100%	99%	R+10.5%	D+2.5%
✓	West Virginia (5)	29.7% 235,847	68.6% 545,051	+38.9% +309,204	100%	99%	R+9.4%	D+3.2%
✓	Wyoming (3)	26.6% 73,491	69.9% 193,559	+43.3% +120,068	100%	99%	R+8.5%	D+2.5%
✓	Nebraska CD-3 (1)	22.4% 65,805	75.6% 221,934	+53.2% +156,129	100%	97%	D+1%	D+1%
	Average						R+3.1%	D+3.3%
	Average (Swing States)						R+4%	D+3.2%

Pollsters

Here's how pollsters are faring in the election (this will be updated as more votes come in).

We show how much each pollster's polls missed, both their 'Avg Polling Error' (either direction) and their 'Avg Polls v. Results (Bias)'
(directional average of their polling errors, aka, their new 'Bias').

Polls are weighted based upon date and older polls are excluded (so their polling average is mostly their polls close to election day).
Note: we don't include states where less than 90% of the votes have been reported.

Large Pollsters

(More Than 10 Polls or A Rated)

Pollster

Rating

538 Bias

Avg Polling Error

Avg Polls v. Results (Bias)

# Polls

Susquehanna Polling & Research Inc.

D+0.9%

1.8%

D+0.8%

State	Polls	Result	Polls v. Results (Bias)	# Polls
Arizona	R+0.2%	D+0.3%	R+0.5%	2
Florida	R+1.7%	R+3.3%	D+1.6%	3
North Carolina	D+2%	R+1.3%	D+3.3%	1
Pennsylvania	R+0.8%	D+1.2%	R+2%	1
Wisconsin	D+2.3%	D+0.7%	D+1.6%	3

Trafalgar Group

C-

R+0.9%

R+1.1%

State	Polls	Result	Polls v. Results (Bias)	# Polls
Arizona	R+2.7%	D+0.3%	R+3%	2
Florida	R+2.6%	R+3.3%	D+0.7%	2
Louisiana	R+18.2%	R+18.6%	D+0.4%	1
Michigan	R+2.2%	D+2.8%	R+5%	6
Minnesota	D+3.2%	D+7.1%	R+3.9%	1
Nevada	D+2.3%	D+2.4%	R+0.1%	1
North Carolina	R+2.2%	R+1.3%	R+0.9%	2
Ohio	R+4.7%	R+8%	D+3.3%	2
Pennsylvania	R+1.1%	D+1.2%	R+2.3%	6
Wisconsin	D+0.9%	D+0.7%	D+0.2%	5

Selzer & Co.

A+

D+0.1%

2.3%

D+2.3%

State	Polls	Result	Polls v. Results (Bias)	# Polls
Iowa	R+6%	R+8.3%	D+2.3%	4

InsiderAdvantage

2.9%

State	Polls	Result	Polls v. Results (Bias)	# Polls
Florida	R+1.5%	R+3.3%	D+1.8%	2
Georgia	R+2%	D+0.3%	R+2.3%	1
Iowa	R+1.2%	R+8.3%	D+7.1%	2
Michigan	D+2.1%	D+2.8%	R+0.7%	1
North Carolina	R+4.4%	R+1.3%	R+3.1%	1
Pennsylvania	R+1.3%	D+1.2%	R+2.5%	3

Suffolk University

D+0.6%

D+2.6%

State	Polls	Result	Polls v. Results (Bias)	# Polls
Arizona	D+4%	D+0.3%	D+3.7%	1
Florida	0%	R+3.3%	D+3.3%	1
Maine	D+12.2%	D+9.9%	D+2.3%	2
Maine CD-1	D+21.8%	D+23%	R+1.2%	2
Minnesota	D+6.4%	D+7.1%	R+0.7%	1
New Hampshire	D+10.2%	D+7.3%	D+2.9%	1
North Carolina	D+3.9%	R+1.3%	D+5.2%	2
Pennsylvania	D+6.2%	D+1.2%	D+5%	1

University of Massachusetts Lowell

A/B

R+0.2%

3.3%

D+0.8%

State	Polls	Result	Polls v. Results (Bias)	# Polls
Massachusetts	D+28%	D+32.9%	R+4.9%	1
New Hampshire	D+9.9%	D+7.3%	D+2.6%	3
North Carolina	0%	R+1.3%	D+1.3%	3
Texas	R+1.3%	R+5.5%	D+4.2%	3

AtlasIntel

B/C

3.3%

D+0.5%

State	Polls	Result	Polls v. Results (Bias)	# Polls
Arizona	R+2.3%	D+0.3%	R+2.6%	1
California	D+35.9%	D+29.4%	D+6.5%	1
Florida	D+0.1%	R+3.3%	D+3.4%	2
Georgia	R+2.2%	D+0.3%	R+2.5%	1
Michigan	D+2.4%	D+2.8%	R+0.4%	2
Nevada	D+2.8%	D+2.4%	D+0.4%	1
New Hampshire	R+2.4%	D+7.3%	R+9.7%	1
North Carolina	R+2%	R+1.3%	R+0.7%	1
Ohio	R+3.9%	R+8%	D+4.1%	1
Pennsylvania	R+1.1%	D+1.2%	R+2.3%	1
South Carolina	R+5.8%	R+11.7%	D+5.9%	1
Texas	R+2.7%	R+5.5%	D+2.8%	2
Wisconsin	D+1.9%	D+0.7%	D+1.2%	1

SurveyUSA

D+0.1%

3.5%

D+1.5%

State	Polls	Result	Polls v. Results (Bias)	# Polls
California	D+27.5%	D+29.4%	R+1.9%	9
Colorado	D+10%	D+13.5%	R+3.5%	1
Connecticut	D+20%	D+20%	0%	1
Georgia	D+2.1%	D+0.3%	D+1.8%	3
Indiana	R+7%	R+16.1%	D+9.1%	1
Kansas	R+7%	R+15.2%	D+8.2%	1
Maine	D+13%	D+9.9%	D+3.1%	1
Maine CD-1	D+19%	D+23%	R+4%	1
Minnesota	D+5.6%	D+7.1%	R+1.5%	4
North Carolina	D+1.4%	R+1.3%	D+2.7%	6
Washington	D+22.1%	D+19.4%	D+2.7%	4

Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research

C+

R+1.5%

3.8%

D+3%

State	Polls	Result	Polls v. Results (Bias)	# Polls
Arizona	R+2.4%	D+0.3%	R+2.7%	2
Florida	R+0.3%	R+3.3%	D+3%	2
Michigan	D+8.6%	D+2.8%	D+5.8%	1
North Carolina	R+1%	R+1.3%	D+0.3%	3
Ohio	R+2.8%	R+8%	D+5.2%	3
Pennsylvania	D+3%	D+1.2%	D+1.8%	3
Wisconsin	D+8.4%	D+0.7%	D+7.7%	1

Emerson College

A-

D+0.3%

3.9%

D+2.1%

State	Polls	Result	Polls v. Results (Bias)	# Polls
Arizona	D+2.1%	D+0.3%	D+1.8%	3
California	D+29.4%	D+29.4%	0%	2
Colorado	D+9.8%	D+13.5%	R+3.7%	1
Florida	D+5%	R+3.3%	D+8.3%	2
Georgia	R+0.8%	D+0.3%	R+1.1%	2
Iowa	R+0.8%	R+8.3%	D+7.5%	6
Maine	D+11.4%	D+9.9%	D+1.5%	1
Maine CD-1	D+19%	D+23%	R+4%	1
Massachusetts	D+37.2%	D+32.9%	D+4.3%	3
Michigan	D+7.4%	D+2.8%	D+4.6%	5
Minnesota	D+2%	D+7.1%	R+5.1%	1
Montana	R+12.4%	R+16.3%	D+3.9%	2
Nebraska CD-2	D+2.6%	D+6.9%	R+4.3%	1
Nevada	D+1.6%	D+2.4%	R+0.8%	3
New Hampshire	D+8%	D+7.3%	D+0.7%	5
New Jersey	D+18.3%	D+16%	D+2.3%	1
New Mexico	D+8.6%	D+10.8%	R+2.2%	1
North Carolina	D+0.6%	R+1.3%	D+1.9%	5
Ohio	D+1%	R+8%	D+9%	3
Pennsylvania	D+4.8%	D+1.2%	D+3.6%	4
South Carolina	R+3.8%	R+11.7%	D+7.9%	1
Texas	R+0.8%	R+5.5%	D+4.7%	4
Wisconsin	D+7.3%	D+0.7%	D+6.6%	4

Marquette Law School

D+4%

State	Polls	Result	Polls v. Results (Bias)	# Polls
Wisconsin	D+4.7%	D+0.7%	D+4%	13

East Carolina University

B/C

D+4%

State	Polls	Result	Polls v. Results (Bias)	# Polls
North Carolina	D+2.8%	R+1.3%	D+4.1%	9
South Carolina	R+7.8%	R+11.7%	D+3.9%	2

Data for Progress

B-

4.1%

D+4%

State	Polls	Result	Polls v. Results (Bias)	# Polls
Alabama	R+20%	R+25.6%	D+5.6%	1
Arizona	D+2.8%	D+0.3%	D+2.5%	4
Colorado	D+12%	D+13.5%	R+1.5%	1
Florida	D+3%	R+3.3%	D+6.3%	2
Georgia	D+1.6%	D+0.3%	D+1.3%	4
Iowa	R+1.9%	R+8.3%	D+6.4%	4
Kansas	R+13.4%	R+15.2%	D+1.8%	3
Kentucky	R+18.7%	R+25.9%	D+7.2%	2
Maine	D+14%	D+9.9%	D+4.1%	2
Michigan	D+5.1%	D+2.8%	D+2.3%	3
Minnesota	D+8%	D+7.1%	D+0.9%	1
Mississippi	R+14%	R+16.5%	D+2.5%	1
Montana	R+6%	R+16.3%	D+10.3%	1
Nevada	D+7%	D+2.4%	D+4.6%	1
North Carolina	D+2.8%	R+1.3%	D+4.1%	3
Pennsylvania	D+7%	D+1.2%	D+5.8%	1
South Carolina	R+8.1%	R+11.7%	D+3.6%	5
Texas	D+1%	R+5.5%	D+6.5%	6
Virginia	D+11%	D+10.2%	D+0.8%	1

Muhlenberg College

A+

R+0.2%

4.2%

D+4.2%

State	Polls	Result	Polls v. Results (Bias)	# Polls
Pennsylvania	D+5.4%	D+1.2%	D+4.2%	5

YouGov

D+0.4%

4.2%

D+3.4%

State	Polls	Result	Polls v. Results (Bias)	# Polls
Arizona	D+3%	D+0.3%	D+2.7%	3
California	D+28%	D+29.4%	R+1.4%	2
Colorado	D+9%	D+13.5%	R+4.5%	1
Florida	D+2%	R+3.3%	D+5.3%	4
Georgia	R+0.1%	D+0.3%	R+0.4%	3
Iowa	0%	R+8.3%	D+8.3%	1
Massachusetts	D+34.9%	D+32.9%	D+2%	2
Michigan	D+8.6%	D+2.8%	D+5.8%	7
Minnesota	D+9%	D+7.1%	D+1.9%	1
Missouri	R+8.6%	R+15.3%	D+6.7%	2
Nevada	D+6%	D+2.4%	D+3.6%	1
North Carolina	D+3.8%	R+1.3%	D+5.1%	3
Ohio	R+0.1%	R+8%	D+7.9%	2
Pennsylvania	D+7.5%	D+1.2%	D+6.3%	7
South Carolina	R+10%	R+11.7%	D+1.7%	1
Texas	R+5.1%	R+5.5%	D+0.4%	9
Wisconsin	D+7.3%	D+0.7%	D+6.6%	8

Monmouth University

A+

D+1.3%

4.5%

D+4.5%

State	Polls	Result	Polls v. Results (Bias)	# Polls
Arizona	D+3.3%	D+0.3%	D+3%	5
Florida	D+4.5%	R+3.3%	D+7.8%	4
Georgia	D+1.8%	D+0.3%	D+1.5%	6
Iowa	D+3%	R+8.3%	D+11.3%	6
Michigan	D+7%	D+2.8%	D+4.2%	1
New Jersey	D+16%	D+16%	0%	1
North Carolina	D+2%	R+1.3%	D+3.3%	4
Pennsylvania	D+6.1%	D+1.2%	D+4.9%	8

Morning Consult

B/C

D+0.2%

4.7%

D+4.7%

State	Polls	Result	Polls v. Results (Bias)	# Polls
Arizona	D+1.7%	D+0.3%	D+1.4%	5
Colorado	D+13.6%	D+13.5%	D+0.1%	5
Florida	D+6.1%	R+3.3%	D+9.4%	6
Georgia	D+1.4%	D+0.3%	D+1.1%	5
Indiana	R+11.4%	R+16.1%	D+4.7%	1
Michigan	D+7.5%	D+2.8%	D+4.7%	5
Minnesota	D+8.8%	D+7.1%	D+1.7%	6
Missouri	R+9.4%	R+15.3%	D+5.9%	1
North Carolina	D+1.5%	R+1.3%	D+2.8%	6
Ohio	R+2.6%	R+8%	D+5.4%	5
Pennsylvania	D+8.6%	D+1.2%	D+7.4%	5
South Carolina	R+6.9%	R+11.7%	D+4.8%	4
Texas	0%	R+5.5%	D+5.5%	6
Wisconsin	D+12%	D+0.7%	D+11.3%	29

Change Research

C-

D+1.1%

4.7%

D+2.9%

State	Polls	Result	Polls v. Results (Bias)	# Polls
Arizona	D+3.7%	D+0.3%	D+3.4%	4
Florida	D+3.4%	R+3.3%	D+6.7%	4
Iowa	0%	R+8.3%	D+8.3%	1
Maine	D+12%	D+9.9%	D+2.1%	1
Maine CD-1	D+21%	D+23%	R+2%	1
Maryland	D+29%	D+32.9%	R+3.9%	1
Michigan	D+7.1%	D+2.8%	D+4.3%	4
Minnesota	D+5%	D+7.1%	R+2.1%	1
Montana	R+5%	R+16.3%	D+11.3%	1
Nebraska CD-2	D+3%	D+6.9%	R+3.9%	1
North Carolina	D+2.2%	R+1.3%	D+3.5%	4
Pennsylvania	D+3.6%	D+1.2%	D+2.4%	4
Wisconsin	D+8%	D+0.7%	D+7.3%	4

EPIC-MRA

B+

R+0.2%

4.9%

D+4.9%

State	Polls	Result	Polls v. Results (Bias)	# Polls
Michigan	D+7.7%	D+2.8%	D+4.9%	10

Ipsos

B-

D+0.4%

D+5%

State	Polls	Result	Polls v. Results (Bias)	# Polls
Arizona	D+2.3%	D+0.3%	D+2%	10
Florida	D+3.4%	R+3.3%	D+6.7%	10
Michigan	D+9%	D+2.8%	D+6.2%	11
North Carolina	D+1.2%	R+1.3%	D+2.5%	10
Pennsylvania	D+5.8%	D+1.2%	D+4.6%	11
Wisconsin	D+8.8%	D+0.7%	D+8.1%	11

SurveyMonkey

D-

D+5%

D+4.2%

574

State	Polls	Result	Polls v. Results (Bias)	# Polls
Alabama	R+24%	R+25.6%	D+1.6%	12
Alaska	R+8.3%	R+10.1%	D+1.8%	10
Arizona	D+5.5%	D+0.3%	D+5.2%	11
Arkansas	R+22%	R+27.6%	D+5.6%	11
California	D+25.8%	D+29.4%	R+3.6%	14
Colorado	D+12.8%	D+13.5%	R+0.7%	11
Connecticut	D+22.8%	D+20%	D+2.8%	12
Delaware	D+22.3%	D+19%	D+3.3%	11
District of Columbia	D+87.3%	D+86.7%	D+0.6%	11
Florida	R+2%	R+3.3%	D+1.3%	13
Georgia	D+1.5%	D+0.3%	D+1.2%	12
Hawaii	D+33.9%	D+29.4%	D+4.5%	11
Idaho	R+19.4%	R+30.7%	D+11.3%	11
Illinois	D+17.2%	D+16.9%	D+0.3%	12
Indiana	R+10.2%	R+16.1%	D+5.9%	12
Iowa	R+1%	R+8.3%	D+7.3%	12
Kansas	R+9.6%	R+15.2%	D+5.6%	12
Kentucky	R+18.6%	R+25.9%	D+7.3%	12
Louisiana	R+26%	R+18.6%	R+7.4%	12
Maine	D+13.5%	D+9.9%	D+3.6%	11
Maryland	D+34.1%	D+32.9%	D+1.2%	11
Massachusetts	D+39.7%	D+32.9%	D+6.8%	12
Michigan	D+6.2%	D+2.8%	D+3.4%	12
Minnesota	D+13.3%	D+7.1%	D+6.2%	12
Mississippi	R+24.2%	R+16.5%	R+7.7%	11
Missouri	R+10.3%	R+15.3%	D+5%	12
Montana	R+5.8%	R+16.3%	D+10.5%	10
Nebraska	R+12.2%	R+19.1%	D+6.9%	11
Nevada	D+0.4%	D+2.4%	R+2%	12
New Hampshire	D+6.7%	D+7.3%	R+0.6%	11
New Jersey	D+21.1%	D+16%	D+5.1%	12
New Mexico	D+12.7%	D+10.8%	D+1.9%	12
North Carolina	D+4.4%	R+1.3%	D+5.7%	12
North Dakota	R+19.9%	R+33.3%	D+13.4%	10
Ohio	R+2.8%	R+8%	D+5.2%	11
Oklahoma	R+27.8%	R+33.1%	D+5.3%	12
Oregon	D+20.4%	D+16.1%	D+4.3%	12
Pennsylvania	D+4.6%	D+1.2%	D+3.4%	12
Rhode Island	D+27.3%	D+20.7%	D+6.6%	10
South Carolina	R+11.1%	R+11.7%	D+0.6%	12
South Dakota	R+24.4%	R+26.2%	D+1.8%	11
Tennessee	R+11%	R+23.3%	D+12.3%	11
Texas	R+4%	R+5.5%	D+1.5%	12
Utah	R+10.7%	R+20.5%	D+9.8%	12
Vermont	D+43.3%	D+35.4%	D+7.9%	10
Virginia	D+14.8%	D+10.2%	D+4.6%	12
Washington	D+26%	D+19.4%	D+6.6%	11
West Virginia	R+34.3%	R+38.9%	D+4.6%	11
Wisconsin	D+10.1%	D+0.7%	D+9.4%	11
Wyoming	R+32.6%	R+43.3%	D+10.7%	11

Civiqs

B/C

5.1%

D+4.9%

State	Polls	Result	Polls v. Results (Bias)	# Polls
Arizona	D+4%	D+0.3%	D+3.7%	1
Colorado	D+12%	D+13.5%	R+1.5%	1
Florida	D+4%	R+3.3%	D+7.3%	1
Georgia	D+4.7%	D+0.3%	D+4.4%	3
Iowa	D+0.9%	R+8.3%	D+9.2%	3
Kansas	R+10.1%	R+15.2%	D+5.1%	2
Kentucky	R+20%	R+25.9%	D+5.9%	1
Michigan	D+9%	D+2.8%	D+6.2%	3
Minnesota	D+10%	D+7.1%	D+2.9%	1
Mississippi	R+14%	R+16.5%	D+2.5%	1
Montana	R+4%	R+16.3%	D+12.3%	1
Nevada	D+9%	D+2.4%	D+6.6%	1
North Carolina	D+5%	R+1.3%	D+6.3%	2
Ohio	R+1.4%	R+8%	D+6.6%	4
Oregon	D+17%	D+16.1%	D+0.9%	1
Pennsylvania	D+6.8%	D+1.2%	D+5.6%	5
South Carolina	R+10%	R+11.7%	D+1.7%	1
Texas	0%	R+5.5%	D+5.5%	1
Virginia	D+13%	D+10.2%	D+2.8%	1
Wisconsin	D+4.8%	D+0.7%	D+4.1%	4

Gravis Marketing

D+0.9%

5.2%

D+5.2%

State	Polls	Result	Polls v. Results (Bias)	# Polls
Alaska	R+9%	R+10.1%	D+1.1%	1
Arizona	D+3.9%	D+0.3%	D+3.6%	2
Michigan	D+13%	D+2.8%	D+10.2%	1
Minnesota	D+14%	D+7.1%	D+6.9%	1
Nevada	D+6%	D+2.4%	D+3.6%	1
North Carolina	D+3%	R+1.3%	D+4.3%	1
Ohio	R+2%	R+8%	D+6%	1
Pennsylvania	D+7%	D+1.2%	D+5.8%	1
Texas	R+5%	R+5.5%	D+0.5%	1
Wisconsin	D+11%	D+0.7%	D+10.3%	1

Marist College

A+

R+0.3%

5.2%

D+5.2%

State	Polls	Result	Polls v. Results (Bias)	# Polls
Arizona	D+0.3%	D+0.3%	0%	3
Florida	D+3.6%	R+3.3%	D+6.9%	2
Michigan	D+8%	D+2.8%	D+5.2%	1
New Hampshire	D+8%	D+7.3%	D+0.7%	1
North Carolina	D+5.9%	R+1.3%	D+7.2%	3
Ohio	D+4%	R+8%	D+12%	1
Pennsylvania	D+5.4%	D+1.2%	D+4.2%	2
Texas	R+4%	R+5.5%	D+1.5%	1
Wisconsin	D+10%	D+0.7%	D+9.3%	1

RMG Research

B/C

5.3%

D+4.5%

State	Polls	Result	Polls v. Results (Bias)	# Polls
Arizona	D+1%	D+0.3%	D+0.7%	1
Colorado	D+8%	D+13.5%	R+5.5%	1
Florida	D+3.3%	R+3.3%	D+6.6%	3
Iowa	0%	R+8.3%	D+8.3%	2
Kentucky	R+17%	R+25.9%	D+8.9%	1
Maine	D+11%	D+9.9%	D+1.1%	1
Michigan	D+6.8%	D+2.8%	D+4%	2
Montana	R+4%	R+16.3%	D+12.3%	1
North Carolina	D+1.2%	R+1.3%	D+2.5%	2
Pennsylvania	D+6%	D+1.2%	D+4.8%	2
Texas	R+4%	R+5.5%	D+1.5%	1
Utah	R+12.7%	R+20.5%	D+7.8%	6
Wisconsin	D+6%	D+0.7%	D+5.3%	1

Public Policy Polling

D+0.3%

5.3%

D+5.1%

State	Polls	Result	Polls v. Results (Bias)	# Polls
Alaska	R+5%	R+10.1%	D+5.1%	3
Arizona	D+2.5%	D+0.3%	D+2.2%	3
California	D+38%	D+29.4%	D+8.6%	1
Colorado	D+14.2%	D+13.5%	D+0.7%	2
Delaware	D+21%	D+19%	D+2%	1
Florida	D+6.9%	R+3.3%	D+10.2%	2
Georgia	D+1.8%	D+0.3%	D+1.5%	6
Iowa	D+0.8%	R+8.3%	D+9.1%	5
Kansas	R+11.7%	R+15.2%	D+3.5%	3
Kentucky	R+16%	R+25.9%	D+9.9%	1
Maine	D+11%	D+9.9%	D+1.1%	4
Maine CD-1	D+20%	D+23%	R+3%	1
Michigan	D+8.6%	D+2.8%	D+5.8%	12
Minnesota	D+10.8%	D+7.1%	D+3.7%	3
Montana	R+3%	R+16.3%	D+13.3%	4
New Mexico	D+13.8%	D+10.8%	D+3%	3
North Carolina	D+3.9%	R+1.3%	D+5.2%	12
Ohio	D+2.7%	R+8%	D+10.7%	2
Pennsylvania	D+6.4%	D+1.2%	D+5.2%	3
Texas	D+1.5%	R+5.5%	D+7%	10
Washington	D+23%	D+19.4%	D+3.6%	2
Wisconsin	D+3.7%	D+0.7%	D+3%	2

Swayable

D-

5.3%

D+4.7%

State	Polls	Result	Polls v. Results (Bias)	# Polls
Alabama	R+17.6%	R+25.6%	D+8%	2
Arizona	D+5.9%	D+0.3%	D+5.6%	2
California	D+26.7%	D+29.4%	R+2.7%	1
Colorado	D+14.7%	D+13.5%	D+1.2%	1
Connecticut	D+30.4%	D+20%	D+10.4%	1
Florida	D+4.6%	R+3.3%	D+7.9%	2
Georgia	D+7.5%	D+0.3%	D+7.2%	2
Illinois	D+11.4%	D+16.9%	R+5.5%	2
Indiana	R+11.8%	R+16.1%	D+4.3%	2
Kentucky	R+13.5%	R+25.9%	D+12.4%	1
Louisiana	R+17.5%	R+18.6%	D+1.1%	1
Maryland	D+35.9%	D+32.9%	D+3%	1
Michigan	D+11.5%	D+2.8%	D+8.7%	2
Minnesota	D+9.3%	D+7.1%	D+2.2%	1
Missouri	R+11.2%	R+15.3%	D+4.1%	1
New Jersey	D+20.3%	D+16%	D+4.3%	2
North Carolina	D+5.1%	R+1.3%	D+6.4%	2
Ohio	R+6.9%	R+8%	D+1.1%	2
Oregon	D+23.2%	D+16.1%	D+7.1%	1
Pennsylvania	D+2.6%	D+1.2%	D+1.4%	2
South Carolina	R+0.9%	R+11.7%	D+10.8%	1
Tennessee	R+16.7%	R+23.3%	D+6.6%	1
Texas	R+3.3%	R+5.5%	D+2.2%	2
Virginia	D+13.9%	D+10.2%	D+3.7%	2
Washington	D+20.3%	D+19.4%	D+0.9%	1
Wisconsin	D+9.5%	D+0.7%	D+8.8%	2

Siena College/The New York Times Upshot

A+

R+0.3%

5.4%

D+4.9%

State	Polls	Result	Polls v. Results (Bias)	# Polls
Alaska	R+6%	R+10.1%	D+4.1%	1
Arizona	D+6.5%	D+0.3%	D+6.2%	5
Florida	D+3.4%	R+3.3%	D+6.7%	4
Georgia	0%	D+0.3%	R+0.3%	2
Iowa	D+2.4%	R+8.3%	D+10.7%	4
Kansas	R+7%	R+15.2%	D+8.2%	1
Maine	D+17%	D+9.9%	D+7.1%	1
Michigan	D+8%	D+2.8%	D+5.2%	4
Minnesota	D+9%	D+7.1%	D+1.9%	1
Montana	R+6.2%	R+16.3%	D+10.1%	2
Nebraska CD-2	D+7%	D+6.9%	D+0.1%	1
Nevada	D+5.9%	D+2.4%	D+3.5%	3
New Hampshire	D+3%	D+7.3%	R+4.3%	1
North Carolina	D+3.2%	R+1.3%	D+4.5%	5
Ohio	D+1%	R+8%	D+9%	1
Pennsylvania	D+6.4%	D+1.2%	D+5.2%	5
South Carolina	R+8%	R+11.7%	D+3.7%	1
Texas	R+3.9%	R+5.5%	D+1.6%	2
Wisconsin	D+10.3%	D+0.7%	D+9.6%	5

ABC News/The Washington Post

A+

D+0.5%

5.6%

D+5.3%

State	Polls	Result	Polls v. Results (Bias)	# Polls
Arizona	R+1%	D+0.3%	R+1.3%	1
Florida	R+2.2%	R+3.3%	D+1.1%	2
Michigan	D+7%	D+2.8%	D+4.2%	1
Minnesota	D+16%	D+7.1%	D+8.9%	1
North Carolina	D+1.7%	R+1.3%	D+3%	2
Pennsylvania	D+7.3%	D+1.2%	D+6.1%	2
Wisconsin	D+15.6%	D+0.7%	D+14.9%	2

Hart Research Associates

D+6%

State	Polls	Result	Polls v. Results (Bias)	# Polls
Arizona	D+11%	D+0.3%	D+10.7%	1
Florida	D+6%	R+3.3%	D+9.3%	1
Georgia	D+3%	D+0.3%	D+2.7%	1
Iowa	R+2%	R+8.3%	D+6.3%	1
Michigan	D+5%	D+2.8%	D+2.2%	1
North Carolina	D+2%	R+1.3%	D+3.3%	1
Ohio	R+2%	R+8%	D+6%	1
Pennsylvania	D+11%	D+1.2%	D+9.8%	1
Texas	R+2%	R+5.5%	D+3.5%	1
Wisconsin	D+7%	D+0.7%	D+6.3%	1

Fox News

6.2%

D+6.2%

State	Polls	Result	Polls v. Results (Bias)	# Polls
Arizona	D+7.5%	D+0.3%	D+7.2%	2
Florida	D+7%	R+3.3%	D+10.3%	2
Georgia	D+2%	D+0.3%	D+1.7%	1
Michigan	D+11.5%	D+2.8%	D+8.7%	3
Minnesota	D+13%	D+7.1%	D+5.9%	1
Nevada	D+9.9%	D+2.4%	D+7.5%	3
North Carolina	D+3.2%	R+1.3%	D+4.5%	3
Ohio	R+1.5%	R+8%	D+6.5%	3
Pennsylvania	D+5.7%	D+1.2%	D+4.5%	4
Texas	D+1%	R+5.5%	D+6.5%	1
Wisconsin	D+5.6%	D+0.7%	D+4.9%	5

Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy

B+

R+0.6%

6.6%

D+3.4%

State	Polls	Result	Polls v. Results (Bias)	# Polls
Alabama	R+20%	R+25.6%	D+5.6%	1
Florida	D+3%	R+3.3%	D+6.3%	3
Georgia	R+7%	D+0.3%	R+7.3%	1
Kentucky	R+17%	R+25.9%	D+8.9%	1
Minnesota	D+6.4%	D+7.1%	R+0.7%	3
Mississippi	R+15%	R+16.5%	D+1.5%	1
South Dakota	R+11%	R+26.2%	D+15.2%	1
Tennessee	R+16%	R+23.3%	D+7.3%	1
Virginia	D+4%	D+10.2%	R+6.2%	1

Redfield & Wilton Strategies

6.6%

D+6.6%

State	Polls	Result	Polls v. Results (Bias)	# Polls
Arizona	D+3.8%	D+0.3%	D+3.5%	4
Florida	D+4.6%	R+3.3%	D+7.9%	4
Michigan	D+12.3%	D+2.8%	D+9.5%	4
North Carolina	D+2.5%	R+1.3%	D+3.8%	4
Pennsylvania	D+5.4%	D+1.2%	D+4.2%	4
Wisconsin	D+11.6%	D+0.7%	D+10.9%	4

Quinnipiac University

B+

D+0.2%

6.9%

D+5.8%

State	Polls	Result	Polls v. Results (Bias)	# Polls
Connecticut	D+23%	D+20%	D+3%	1
Florida	D+5%	R+3.3%	D+8.3%	7
Georgia	D+6.1%	D+0.3%	D+5.8%	2
Iowa	0%	R+8.3%	D+8.3%	2
Kentucky	R+17.3%	R+25.9%	D+8.6%	2
Maine	D+19.5%	D+9.9%	D+9.6%	2
Maine CD-1	D+31.8%	D+23%	D+8.8%	2
Michigan	D+4%	D+2.8%	D+1.2%	1
New Jersey	D+19%	D+16%	D+3%	1
Ohio	D+3.9%	R+8%	D+11.9%	6
Pennsylvania	D+7.8%	D+1.2%	D+6.6%	6
South Carolina	R+2.4%	R+11.7%	D+9.3%	3
Texas	R+0.5%	R+5.5%	D+5%	6
Wisconsin	R+7%	D+0.7%	R+7.7%	1

CNN/SSRS

7.2%

D+5.2%

State	Polls	Result	Polls v. Results (Bias)	# Polls
Arizona	D+4%	D+0.3%	D+3.7%	2
California	D+21.6%	D+29.4%	R+7.8%	2
Florida	D+4%	R+3.3%	D+7.3%	2
Michigan	D+12%	D+2.8%	D+9.2%	2
North Carolina	D+5.9%	R+1.3%	D+7.2%	2
Pennsylvania	D+10%	D+1.2%	D+8.8%	1
Texas	D+0.4%	R+5.5%	D+5.9%	2
Wisconsin	D+8.1%	D+0.7%	D+7.4%	2

Smaller Pollsters

(Less Than 10 Polls)

Pollster

Rating

538 Bias

Avg Polling Error

Avg Polls v. Results (Bias)

# Polls

University of Georgia

B/C

R+0.3%

0.3%

R+0.3%

State	Polls	Result	Polls v. Results (Bias)	# Polls
Georgia	0%	D+0.3%	R+0.3%	4

WPA Intelligence

0.4%

R+0.4%

State	Polls	Result	Polls v. Results (Bias)	# Polls
Nevada	D+2%	D+2.4%	R+0.4%	1

Basswood Research

B/C

R+0.2%

0.4%

R+0.4%

State	Polls	Result	Polls v. Results (Bias)	# Polls
Arizona	R+0.1%	D+0.3%	R+0.4%	3

Fairleigh Dickinson University (PublicMind)

A/B

0.6%

R+0.6%

State	Polls	Result	Polls v. Results (Bias)	# Polls
New Jersey	D+15.4%	D+16%	R+0.6%	2

Public Opinion Strategies

B+

R+1.5%

0.7%

D+0.7%

State	Polls	Result	Polls v. Results (Bias)	# Polls
Georgia	D+1%	D+0.3%	D+0.7%	1

HighGround Inc.

B/C

R+0.4%

0.7%

D+0.7%

State	Polls	Result	Polls v. Results (Bias)	# Polls
Arizona	D+1%	D+0.3%	D+0.7%	1

Fort Hays State University

C/D

R+1.4%

0.8%

D+0.8%

State	Polls	Result	Polls v. Results (Bias)	# Polls
Kansas	R+14.4%	R+15.2%	D+0.8%	1

Saint Anselm College

0.8%

D+0.8%

State	Polls	Result	Polls v. Results (Bias)	# Polls
New Hampshire	D+8.1%	D+7.3%	D+0.8%	2

The Washington Post/George Mason University

0.8%

D+0.8%

State	Polls	Result	Polls v. Results (Bias)	# Polls
Virginia	D+11%	D+10.2%	D+0.8%	1

Roanoke College

B/C

D+0.5%

0.8%

D+0.8%

State	Polls	Result	Polls v. Results (Bias)	# Polls
Virginia	D+11%	D+10.2%	D+0.8%	1

OpinionWorks

B/C

R+0.5%

0.9%

R+0.9%

State	Polls	Result	Polls v. Results (Bias)	# Polls
Maryland	D+32%	D+32.9%	R+0.9%	1

Cardinal Point Analytics (CardinalGPS)

0.9%

R+0.9%

State	Polls	Result	Polls v. Results (Bias)	# Polls
North Carolina	R+2.2%	R+1.3%	R+0.9%	1

Keating Research/OnSight Public Affairs/Melanson

B/C

R+0.1%

0.9%

R+0.9%

State	Polls	Result	Polls v. Results (Bias)	# Polls
Colorado	D+12.6%	D+13.5%	R+0.9%	2

MassINC Polling Group

A/B

R+0.7%

D+1%

State	Polls	Result	Polls v. Results (Bias)	# Polls
Massachusetts	D+33.9%	D+32.9%	D+1%	3

Christopher Newport University

B/C

D+0.7%

1.2%

D+1.2%

State	Polls	Result	Polls v. Results (Bias)	# Polls
Virginia	D+11.4%	D+10.2%	D+1.2%	2

Bendixen & Amandi International

B/C

D+0.1%

1.3%

R+1.3%

State	Polls	Result	Polls v. Results (Bias)	# Polls
Arizona	R+1%	D+0.3%	R+1.3%	1

Victory Research

B/C

1.3%

R+1.3%

State	Polls	Result	Polls v. Results (Bias)	# Polls
Illinois	D+15.6%	D+16.9%	R+1.3%	2

Research & Polling Inc.

B+

R+0.9%

1.4%

D+1.4%

State	Polls	Result	Polls v. Results (Bias)	# Polls
New Mexico	D+12.2%	D+10.8%	D+1.4%	2

University of New Hampshire

B-

D+2.8%

1.6%

D+1.6%

State	Polls	Result	Polls v. Results (Bias)	# Polls
New Hampshire	D+8.9%	D+7.3%	D+1.6%	3

Data Orbital

A/B

D+0.3%

1.7%

D+1.7%

State	Polls	Result	Polls v. Results (Bias)	# Polls
Arizona	D+2%	D+0.3%	D+1.7%	5

Virginia Commonwealth University

B/C

R+0.2%

1.9%

D+1.9%

State	Polls	Result	Polls v. Results (Bias)	# Polls
Virginia	D+12.1%	D+10.2%	D+1.9%	2

Goucher College

1.9%

R+1.9%

State	Polls	Result	Polls v. Results (Bias)	# Polls
Maryland	D+31%	D+32.9%	R+1.9%	1

Colby College

2.1%

D+1.1%

State	Polls	Result	Polls v. Results (Bias)	# Polls
Maine	D+13%	D+9.9%	D+3.1%	1
Maine CD-1	D+22%	D+23%	R+1%	1

Marketing Resource Group (MRG)

B/C

D+0.3%

2.2%

D+2.2%

State	Polls	Result	Polls v. Results (Bias)	# Polls
Michigan	D+5%	D+2.8%	D+2.2%	1

Univision/University of Houston/Latino Decisions

B/C

2.5%

D+2.5%

State	Polls	Result	Polls v. Results (Bias)	# Polls
Texas	R+3%	R+5.5%	D+2.5%	1

Latino Decisions

B/C

2.5%

D+2.5%

State	Polls	Result	Polls v. Results (Bias)	# Polls
Arizona	D+3.2%	D+0.3%	D+2.9%	2
Florida	R+3%	R+3.3%	D+0.3%	1
Wisconsin	D+5%	D+0.7%	D+4.3%	1

Wick

2.5%

R+0.7%

State	Polls	Result	Polls v. Results (Bias)	# Polls
Florida	R+2.9%	R+3.3%	D+0.4%	1
Georgia	R+2.5%	D+0.3%	R+2.8%	1
Michigan	D+0.3%	D+2.8%	R+2.5%	1
North Carolina	R+2.2%	R+1.3%	R+0.9%	1
Ohio	R+2.9%	R+8%	D+5.1%	1
Pennsylvania	R+2.1%	D+1.2%	R+3.3%	1

Cygnal

A/B

D+1%

2.9%

D+1.4%

State	Polls	Result	Polls v. Results (Bias)	# Polls
Florida	D+3.2%	R+3.3%	D+6.5%	1
Georgia	R+1.1%	D+0.3%	R+1.4%	1
Virginia	D+9.3%	D+10.2%	R+0.9%	2

OH Predictive Insights

B/C

R+0.9%

D+3%

State	Polls	Result	Polls v. Results (Bias)	# Polls
Arizona	D+3.3%	D+0.3%	D+3%	4

Hendrix College

B/C

D+1.5%

3.1%

D+3.1%

State	Polls	Result	Polls v. Results (Bias)	# Polls
Arkansas	R+24.5%	R+27.6%	D+3.1%	1

Harper Polling

B/C

D+0.1%

3.1%

R+1%

State	Polls	Result	Polls v. Results (Bias)	# Polls
Minnesota	D+3%	D+7.1%	R+4.1%	1
North Carolina	D+0.8%	R+1.3%	D+2.1%	2

Pan Atlantic Research

B/C

D+0.8%

3.1%

R+2.4%

State	Polls	Result	Polls v. Results (Bias)	# Polls
Maine	D+10.6%	D+9.9%	D+0.7%	1
Maine CD-1	D+17.5%	D+23%	R+5.5%	1

Public Policy Institute of California

A/B

R+1%

3.1%

R+3.1%

State	Polls	Result	Polls v. Results (Bias)	# Polls
California	D+26.3%	D+29.4%	R+3.1%	3

MRG Research

B/C

R+2.1%

3.2%

D+3.2%

State	Polls	Result	Polls v. Results (Bias)	# Polls
Hawaii	D+32.6%	D+29.4%	D+3.2%	2

Pulse Opinion Research

3.2%

D+1.3%

State	Polls	Result	Polls v. Results (Bias)	# Polls
Nevada	D+1%	D+2.4%	R+1.4%	1
New Hampshire	D+14%	D+7.3%	D+6.7%	1
Texas	R+7%	R+5.5%	R+1.5%	1

AYTM

3.3%

D+3.3%

State	Polls	Result	Polls v. Results (Bias)	# Polls
Florida	D+2%	R+3.3%	D+5.3%	1
Georgia	D+4%	D+0.3%	D+3.7%	1
Pennsylvania	D+2%	D+1.2%	D+0.8%	1

Landmark Communications

D+1.5%

3.4%

R+3.4%

State	Polls	Result	Polls v. Results (Bias)	# Polls
Georgia	R+3.1%	D+0.3%	R+3.4%	7

Global Strategy Group

B/C

D+1.8%

3.4%

D+2%

State	Polls	Result	Polls v. Results (Bias)	# Polls
Colorado	D+12.4%	D+13.5%	R+1.1%	3
Nebraska CD-2	D+6%	D+6.9%	R+0.9%	1
Pennsylvania	D+9.3%	D+1.2%	D+8.1%	2

RBI Strategies & Research

B/C

+0%

3.5%

D+3.5%

State	Polls	Result	Polls v. Results (Bias)	# Polls
Colorado	D+17%	D+13.5%	D+3.5%	1

co/efficient

C/D

D+0.2%

3.6%

R+3.6%

State	Polls	Result	Polls v. Results (Bias)	# Polls
Kansas	R+17%	R+15.2%	R+1.8%	1
Vermont	D+30%	D+35.4%	R+5.4%	1

University of Nevada Las Vegas Lee Business School

3.8%

D+2.8%

State	Polls	Result	Polls v. Results (Bias)	# Polls
Nebraska CD-2	D+5.9%	D+6.9%	R+1%	1
Nevada	D+9%	D+2.4%	D+6.6%	1

Whitman Insight Strategies

3.8%

D+3.8%

State	Polls	Result	Polls v. Results (Bias)	# Polls
Pennsylvania	D+5%	D+1.2%	D+3.8%	1

Frederick Polls

B/C

+0%

3.8%

D+3.8%

State	Polls	Result	Polls v. Results (Bias)	# Polls
Florida	D+2%	R+3.3%	D+5.3%	1
North Carolina	D+2%	R+1.3%	D+3.3%	1
Pennsylvania	D+4%	D+1.2%	D+2.8%	1

GBAO

B/C

3.9%

D+3.9%

State	Polls	Result	Polls v. Results (Bias)	# Polls
Georgia	D+3%	D+0.3%	D+2.7%	1
New Mexico	D+13%	D+10.8%	D+2.2%	1
South Carolina	R+5%	R+11.7%	D+6.7%	1

Research Co.

B-

R+0.5%

D+4%

State	Polls	Result	Polls v. Results (Bias)	# Polls
Illinois	D+17%	D+16.9%	D+0.1%	1
Michigan	D+7%	D+2.8%	D+4.2%	1
Minnesota	D+9%	D+7.1%	D+1.9%	1
New Jersey	D+18%	D+16%	D+2%	1
Ohio	0%	R+8%	D+8%	1
Pennsylvania	D+6%	D+1.2%	D+4.8%	1
Wisconsin	D+8%	D+0.7%	D+7.3%	1

DHM Research

B/C

R+0.1%

4.1%

R+4.1%

State	Polls	Result	Polls v. Results (Bias)	# Polls
Oregon	D+12%	D+16.1%	R+4.1%	1

FM3 Research

B/C

D+0.5%

4.1%

D+4.1%

State	Polls	Result	Polls v. Results (Bias)	# Polls
Nebraska CD-2	D+11%	D+6.9%	D+4.1%	1

Univision/Latino Decisions/North Star Opinion Research

4.2%

D+4.2%

State	Polls	Result	Polls v. Results (Bias)	# Polls
Florida	D+3%	R+3.3%	D+6.3%	1
Pennsylvania	D+5%	D+1.2%	D+3.8%	1
Texas	R+3%	R+5.5%	D+2.5%	1

University of New Orleans

B/C

D+0.3%

4.3%

R+4.3%

State	Polls	Result	Polls v. Results (Bias)	# Polls
Louisiana	R+22.9%	R+18.6%	R+4.3%	1

CCES / YouGov

4.3%

D+4.3%

State	Polls	Result	Polls v. Results (Bias)	# Polls
Florida	D+2%	R+3.3%	D+5.3%	1
Georgia	D+1%	D+0.3%	D+0.7%	1
North Carolina	D+4%	R+1.3%	D+5.3%	1
Pennsylvania	D+8%	D+1.2%	D+6.8%	1
Texas	R+2%	R+5.5%	D+3.5%	1

David Binder Research

B/C

4.3%

D+4.3%

State	Polls	Result	Polls v. Results (Bias)	# Polls
California	D+31%	D+29.4%	D+1.6%	2
Iowa	R+6%	R+8.3%	D+2.3%	1
Minnesota	D+11%	D+7.1%	D+3.9%	1
Wisconsin	D+10%	D+0.7%	D+9.3%	1

Meeting Street Insights

4.3%

D+4.3%

State	Polls	Result	Polls v. Results (Bias)	# Polls
North Carolina	D+3%	R+1.3%	D+4.3%	2

Starboard Communications

B/C

D+0.1%

4.4%

D+4.4%

State	Polls	Result	Polls v. Results (Bias)	# Polls
South Carolina	R+7.3%	R+11.7%	D+4.4%	1

Stockton University

A/B

D+0.7%

4.5%

D+4.5%

State	Polls	Result	Polls v. Results (Bias)	# Polls
New Jersey	D+20.5%	D+16%	D+4.5%	1

Beacon Research

B/C

4.5%

D+4.5%

State	Polls	Result	Polls v. Results (Bias)	# Polls
Texas	R+1%	R+5.5%	D+4.5%	1

St. Pete Polls

R+0.4%

4.6%

D+4.6%

State	Polls	Result	Polls v. Results (Bias)	# Polls
Florida	D+1.3%	R+3.3%	D+4.6%	5

Univision/University of Arizona/Latino Decisions/North Star Opinion Research

4.7%

D+4.7%

State	Polls	Result	Polls v. Results (Bias)	# Polls
Arizona	D+5%	D+0.3%	D+4.7%	1

Meredith College

B/C

4.8%

D+4.8%

State	Polls	Result	Polls v. Results (Bias)	# Polls
North Carolina	D+3.5%	R+1.3%	D+4.8%	4

Franklin & Marshall College

B/C

D+0.4%

4.8%

D+4.8%

State	Polls	Result	Polls v. Results (Bias)	# Polls
Pennsylvania	D+6%	D+1.2%	D+4.8%	4

Reconnect Research/Roanoke College

4.8%

D+4.8%

State	Polls	Result	Polls v. Results (Bias)	# Polls
Virginia	D+15%	D+10.2%	D+4.8%	1

Strategies 360

B/C

R+0.1%

4.9%

D+4.9%

State	Polls	Result	Polls v. Results (Bias)	# Polls
Arizona	D+4%	D+0.3%	D+3.7%	1
Montana	R+8%	R+16.3%	D+8.3%	1
Washington	D+22%	D+19.4%	D+2.6%	1

Harris Poll

D+5%

State	Polls	Result	Polls v. Results (Bias)	# Polls
Florida	D+2.4%	R+3.3%	D+5.7%	2
Michigan	D+11%	D+2.8%	D+8.2%	1
North Carolina	D+1%	R+1.3%	D+2.3%	1
Pennsylvania	D+5%	D+1.2%	D+3.8%	2

Sacred Heart University

B/C

R+0.3%

D+5%

State	Polls	Result	Polls v. Results (Bias)	# Polls
Connecticut	D+25%	D+20%	D+5%	1

Baldwin Wallace University (Great Lakes Poll)

5.1%

D+5.1%

State	Polls	Result	Polls v. Results (Bias)	# Polls
Michigan	D+7%	D+2.8%	D+4.2%	1
Ohio	R+1.6%	R+8%	D+6.4%	1
Pennsylvania	D+5.1%	D+1.2%	D+3.9%	1
Wisconsin	D+6.7%	D+0.7%	D+6%	1

Critical Insights

C/D

R+0.1%

5.1%

D+5.1%

State	Polls	Result	Polls v. Results (Bias)	# Polls
Maine	D+11%	D+9.9%	D+1.1%	1
Maine CD-1	D+32%	D+23%	D+9%	1

TargetSmart

5.1%

D+0.8%

State	Polls	Result	Polls v. Results (Bias)	# Polls
Georgia	R+4%	D+0.3%	R+4.3%	1
Pennsylvania	D+7%	D+1.2%	D+5.8%	1

Cole Hargrave Snodgrass & Associates

B/C

D+0.1%

5.1%

D+5.1%

State	Polls	Result	Polls v. Results (Bias)	# Polls
Oklahoma	R+28%	R+33.1%	D+5.1%	1

Glengariff Group

B/C

D+0.3%

5.1%

D+5.1%

State	Polls	Result	Polls v. Results (Bias)	# Polls
Michigan	D+7.9%	D+2.8%	D+5.1%	3

ALG Research

B/C

D+1.5%

5.2%

D+5.2%

State	Polls	Result	Polls v. Results (Bias)	# Polls
Michigan	D+8%	D+2.8%	D+5.2%	1
Nevada	D+4%	D+2.4%	D+1.6%	1
North Carolina	D+3%	R+1.3%	D+4.3%	1
Ohio	D+2%	R+8%	D+10%	1
Pennsylvania	D+6%	D+1.2%	D+4.8%	1

University of Arkansas

B/C

D+0.7%

5.4%

R+5.4%

State	Polls	Result	Polls v. Results (Bias)	# Polls
Arkansas	R+33%	R+27.6%	R+5.4%	1

Mitchell Research & Communications

C-

D+0.8%

5.5%

D+5.5%

State	Polls	Result	Polls v. Results (Bias)	# Polls
Michigan	D+8.3%	D+2.8%	D+5.5%	3

EMC Research

5.5%

D+5.5%

State	Polls	Result	Polls v. Results (Bias)	# Polls
Texas	0%	R+5.5%	D+5.5%	1

Florida Atlantic University

B/C

D+0.4%

5.7%

D+5.7%

State	Polls	Result	Polls v. Results (Bias)	# Polls
Florida	D+2.4%	R+3.3%	D+5.7%	8

The Justice Collaborative Institute

5.7%

D+5.7%

State	Polls	Result	Polls v. Results (Bias)	# Polls
Arizona	D+6%	D+0.3%	D+5.7%	1

University of North Florida

A/B

D+0.7%

5.8%

D+5.8%

State	Polls	Result	Polls v. Results (Bias)	# Polls
Florida	D+2.5%	R+3.3%	D+5.8%	5

HarrisX

5.9%

D+5.9%

State	Polls	Result	Polls v. Results (Bias)	# Polls
Georgia	D+6.2%	D+0.3%	D+5.9%	1

DKC Analytics

D+6%

State	Polls	Result	Polls v. Results (Bias)	# Polls
New Jersey	D+22%	D+16%	D+6%	1

Opinion Insight

6.1%

D+6.1%

State	Polls	Result	Polls v. Results (Bias)	# Polls
Georgia	D+3.6%	D+0.3%	D+3.3%	2
Iowa	D+0.9%	R+8.3%	D+9.2%	2
Michigan	D+8.6%	D+2.8%	D+5.8%	2

Alaska Survey Research

B/C

D+1.8%

6.1%

D+6.1%

State	Polls	Result	Polls v. Results (Bias)	# Polls
Alaska	R+4%	R+10.1%	D+6.1%	1

Auburn University at Montgomery

6.4%

D+6.4%

State	Polls	Result	Polls v. Results (Bias)	# Polls
Alabama	R+19.2%	R+25.6%	D+6.4%	2

University of California, Berkeley

6.6%

D+6.6%

State	Polls	Result	Polls v. Results (Bias)	# Polls
California	D+36%	D+29.4%	D+6.6%	1

Citizen Data

6.6%

D+6.6%

State	Polls	Result	Polls v. Results (Bias)	# Polls
Florida	D+4.9%	R+3.3%	D+8.2%	1
Georgia	D+4.5%	D+0.3%	D+4.2%	1
Michigan	D+8.1%	D+2.8%	D+5.3%	1
North Carolina	D+6.6%	R+1.3%	D+7.9%	1
Ohio	R+1.2%	R+8%	D+6.8%	1
Pennsylvania	D+5.3%	D+1.2%	D+4.1%	1
Texas	D+3.9%	R+5.5%	D+9.4%	1

Targoz Market Research

C/D

D+1.6%

6.8%

D+6.3%

State	Polls	Result	Polls v. Results (Bias)	# Polls
Arizona	R+1%	D+0.3%	R+1.3%	1
Florida	D+3.7%	R+3.3%	D+7%	1
Michigan	D+14%	D+2.8%	D+11.2%	1
Minnesota	D+9%	D+7.1%	D+1.9%	1
Pennsylvania	D+14%	D+1.2%	D+12.8%	1

Zia Poll

C/D

R+0.5%

6.8%

R+6.8%

State	Polls	Result	Polls v. Results (Bias)	# Polls
Michigan	R+4%	D+2.8%	R+6.8%	1

Patinkin Research Strategies

6.9%

D+6.9%

State	Polls	Result	Polls v. Results (Bias)	# Polls
Alaska	R+3%	R+10.1%	D+7.1%	1
Arizona	D+7%	D+0.3%	D+6.7%	2

OnMessage Inc.

B/C

R+1.4%

7.1%

D+7.1%

State	Polls	Result	Polls v. Results (Bias)	# Polls
Ohio	R+0.9%	R+8%	D+7.1%	2

GQR Research

7.4%

D+7.4%

State	Polls	Result	Polls v. Results (Bias)	# Polls
Florida	D+5%	R+3.3%	D+8.3%	1
Michigan	D+9%	D+2.8%	D+6.2%	1
Pennsylvania	D+9%	D+1.2%	D+7.8%	1

Gonzales Research & Marketing Strategies Inc.

B/C

R+0.3%

7.8%

R+7.8%

State	Polls	Result	Polls v. Results (Bias)	# Polls
Maryland	D+25.1%	D+32.9%	R+7.8%	1

Y2 Analytics

B/C

D+0.4%

7.9%

D+7.9%

State	Polls	Result	Polls v. Results (Bias)	# Polls
Arizona	D+3%	D+0.3%	D+2.7%	1
Utah	R+7.5%	R+20.5%	D+13%	3

St. Cloud State University

B/C

D+0.3%

7.9%

D+7.9%

State	Polls	Result	Polls v. Results (Bias)	# Polls
Minnesota	D+15%	D+7.1%	D+7.9%	1

Rutgers University

B/C

+0%

D+8%

State	Polls	Result	Polls v. Results (Bias)	# Polls
New Jersey	D+24%	D+16%	D+8%	2

Ragnar Research Partners

8.1%

D+8.1%

State	Polls	Result	Polls v. Results (Bias)	# Polls
Indiana	R+8%	R+16.1%	D+8.1%	1

University of Texas at Tyler

B/C

R+0.3%

8.2%

D+8.2%

State	Polls	Result	Polls v. Results (Bias)	# Polls
Texas	D+2.7%	R+5.5%	D+8.2%	9

Cherry Communications

B/C

R+0.5%

8.3%

D+8.3%

State	Polls	Result	Polls v. Results (Bias)	# Polls
Florida	D+5%	R+3.3%	D+8.3%	1

Moore Information

B/C

R+0.7%

8.6%

D+8.6%

State	Polls	Result	Polls v. Results (Bias)	# Polls
Alabama	R+17%	R+25.6%	D+8.6%	1

Spry Strategies

B/C

R+0.3%

8.9%

R+3.4%

State	Polls	Result	Polls v. Results (Bias)	# Polls
California	D+17.2%	D+29.4%	R+12.2%	1
Idaho	R+25.2%	R+30.7%	D+5.5%	1

Harstad Strategic Research Inc.

B/C

D+0.6%

9.1%

D+9.1%

State	Polls	Result	Polls v. Results (Bias)	# Polls
Alaska	R+1%	R+10.1%	D+9.1%	1

Montana State University Billings

B/C

D+0.3%

9.3%

D+9.3%

State	Polls	Result	Polls v. Results (Bias)	# Polls
Montana	R+7%	R+16.3%	D+9.3%	1

Saint Leo University

C/D

D+1.8%

9.3%

D+9.3%

State	Polls	Result	Polls v. Results (Bias)	# Polls
Florida	D+6%	R+3.3%	D+9.3%	1

TIPP

9.4%

D+9.4%

State	Polls	Result	Polls v. Results (Bias)	# Polls
Florida	D+11%	R+3.3%	D+14.3%	1
Michigan	D+13%	D+2.8%	D+10.2%	1
Pennsylvania	D+5%	D+1.2%	D+3.8%	1

The Tyson Group

B/C

+0%

9.5%

D+9.5%

State	Polls	Result	Polls v. Results (Bias)	# Polls
Louisiana	R+6%	R+18.6%	D+12.6%	1
Mississippi	R+10%	R+16.5%	D+6.5%	1
Texas	D+4%	R+5.5%	D+9.5%	1

Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group

B/C

D+1.3%

10%

D+10%

State	Polls	Result	Polls v. Results (Bias)	# Polls
Georgia	D+7%	D+0.3%	D+6.7%	1
Missouri	R+2%	R+15.3%	D+13.3%	1

Kiaer Research

10.1%

D+10.1%

State	Polls	Result	Polls v. Results (Bias)	# Polls
Michigan	D+12.9%	D+2.8%	D+10.1%	1

Remington Research Group

C-

D+1.2%

10.1%

D+10.1%

State	Polls	Result	Polls v. Results (Bias)	# Polls
Missouri	R+5.2%	R+15.3%	D+10.1%	4

Clearview Research

10.3%

D+10.3%

State	Polls	Result	Polls v. Results (Bias)	# Polls
Florida	D+7%	R+3.3%	D+10.3%	1

American Research Group

R+0.2%

10.3%

D+10.3%

State	Polls	Result	Polls v. Results (Bias)	# Polls
New Hampshire	D+17.6%	D+7.3%	D+10.3%	2

SoonerPoll

11%

D+11%

State	Polls	Result	Polls v. Results (Bias)	# Polls
Oklahoma	R+22.1%	R+33.1%	D+11%	3

Nielson Brothers Polling

C/D

D+2.9%

11.2%

D+11.2%

State	Polls	Result	Polls v. Results (Bias)	# Polls
South Dakota	R+15%	R+26.2%	D+11.2%	1

RABA Research

B/C

D+0.3%

12.1%

D+12.1%

State	Polls	Result	Polls v. Results (Bias)	# Polls
Iowa	D+3.8%	R+8.3%	D+12.1%	2

Braun Research

B/C

D+1.2%

12.2%

R+12.2%

State	Polls	Result	Polls v. Results (Bias)	# Polls
Vermont	D+23.2%	D+35.4%	R+12.2%	1

Bluegrass Community and Technical College

12.7%

D+12.7%

State	Polls	Result	Polls v. Results (Bias)	# Polls
Kentucky	R+13.2%	R+25.9%	D+12.7%	1

SSRS

B/C

D+1.2%

14.3%

D+14.3%

State	Polls	Result	Polls v. Results (Bias)	# Polls
Tennessee	R+9%	R+23.3%	D+14.3%	1

University of Wyoming

15.3%

D+15.3%

State	Polls	Result	Polls v. Results (Bias)	# Polls
Wyoming	R+28%	R+43.3%	D+15.3%	1

Research America Inc.

B/C

D+0.1%

15.9%

D+15.9%

State	Polls	Result	Polls v. Results (Bias)	# Polls
Virginia	D+17%	D+10.2%	D+6.8%	1
West Virginia	R+14%	R+38.9%	D+24.9%	1

DFM Research

B/C

D+1.5%

18.4%

D+18.4%

State	Polls	Result	Polls v. Results (Bias)	# Polls
North Dakota	R+14.9%	R+33.3%	D+18.4%	2

Triton Polling & Research

18.9%

D+18.9%

State	Polls	Result	Polls v. Results (Bias)	# Polls
West Virginia	R+20%	R+38.9%	D+18.9%	2

About

Every 2 minutes we get the latest vote count in every state. We then re-run our 20,000 simulations of the election to project who's most likely to win each state and the election overall. Your screen will update automatically with the latest info (so no need to hit refresh).

As we get more votes in, we'll defer to the vote count more (rather than the polls) and start narrowing the range our model tests in its simulations.

Some other more detailed info we'd like to note:

Vote Count vs Polls
The vote count slowly takes over the polls in our live projection, very slowly at first (as the early numbers may be all over the place), but as we get more of the total vote in, the vote count will take over. The chart below shows about how much of our projection is votes at each reporting level:

% Reporting	% of Projection That Is Votes
10%	0.4%
20%	1.4%
30%	3.9%
40%	9.3%
50%	19.6%
60%	35.7%
70%	55.1%
80%	72.7%
90%	85%

Calling States
A state isn't 'called' in our projections until a TV network calls it. If a state wasn't 'Safe' before the election, the live election night projection will max out at a 99.9% probability until it's actually called.

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