Live Election Night Forecast

This is how election night went in 2020. We've stopped updating it, but may include state calls as they come.
Use the History area on the left to look at what the forecast showed at specific times in the evening.
Check out the States section to see state level polling errors and swings from 2016.
You can also checkout our Pollsters area to see how different pollsters did in 2020. Last Updated 12/3 10:43 AM EDT


Biden
Trump
Biden
Trump
270
|
|
|
|
|
306
Electoral Votes
232
Electoral Votes
100% Chance of Winning

History

5:50 PM 6:24 PM 6:36 PM 6:48 PM 6:58 PM 7:09 PM 7:14 PM 7:19 PM 7:24 PM 7:29 PM 7:34 PM 7:39 PM 7:44 PM 7:49 PM 7:54 PM 7:59 PM 8:04 PM 8:09 PM 8:14 PM 8:19 PM 8:24 PM 8:29 PM 8:34 PM 8:39 PM 8:44 PM 8:49 PM 8:54 PM 8:59 PM 9:04 PM 9:09 PM 9:14 PM 9:19 PM 9:24 PM 9:29 PM 9:34 PM 9:39 PM 9:44 PM 9:49 PM 9:54 PM 9:59 PM 10:04 PM 10:09 PM 10:14 PM 10:19 PM 10:24 PM 10:29 PM 10:34 PM 10:39 PM 10:44 PM 10:49 PM 10:54 PM 10:59 PM 11:04 PM 11:09 PM 11:14 PM 11:24 PM 11:35 PM 11:44 PM 11:54 PM 12:04 AM 12:14 AM 12:24 AM 12:30 AM 12:40 AM 12:50 AM 1:00 AM 1:06 AM 1:16 AM 1:26 AM 1:34 AM 1:44 AM 1:54 AM 2:04 AM 2:12 AM 2:22 AM 2:32 AM 2:42 AM 2:52 AM 3:02 AM 3:12 AM 3:22 AM 3:32 AM 3:42 AM 3:52 AM 4:02 AM 4:12 AM 4:22 AM 4:32 AM 4:42 AM 4:58 AM 5:08 AM 5:18 AM 5:30 AM 5:40 AM 5:50 AM 6:00 AM 6:10 AM 6:32 AM 6:38 AM 6:56 AM 7:14 AM 7:46 AM 8:12 AM 8:56 AM 9:08 AM 9:24 AM 9:46 AM 10:02 AM 10:16 AM 10:26 AM 10:38 AM 10:48 AM 11:04 AM 11:18 AM 11:28 AM 11:38 AM 11:54 AM 12:04 PM 12:14 PM 12:28 PM 12:42 PM 12:52 PM 1:04 PM 1:18 PM 1:30 PM 1:42 PM 1:56 PM 2:08 PM 2:16 PM 2:28 PM 2:38 PM 2:48 PM 3:04 PM 3:14 PM 3:24 PM 3:34 PM 3:44 PM 3:54 PM 4:06 PM 4:18 PM 4:28 PM 4:42 PM 4:52 PM 5:02 PM 5:12 PM 5:24 PM 5:34 PM 5:44 PM 5:58 PM 6:10 PM 6:22 PM 6:32 PM 6:42 PM 6:52 PM 6:58 PM 7:10 PM 7:22 PM 7:32 PM 7:44 PM 7:56 PM 8:06 PM 8:20 PM 8:34 PM 8:50 PM 9:18 PM 9:36 PM 9:56 PM 10:14 PM 10:38 PM 10:48 PM 10:58 PM 11:10 PM 11:30 PM 11:56 PM 12:26 AM 1:08 AM 5:56 AM 8:32 AM 9:00 AM 9:28 AM 9:48 AM 10:10 AM 10:24 AM 10:50 AM 11:08 AM 11:30 AM 11:44 AM 11:56 AM 12:12 PM 12:22 PM 12:38 PM 12:56 PM 1:14 PM 1:28 PM 1:52 PM 2:16 PM 2:28 PM 2:40 PM 2:56 PM 3:08 PM 3:18 PM 3:30 PM 3:42 PM 3:52 PM 4:02 PM 4:12 PM 4:22 PM 4:32 PM 4:44 PM 4:54 PM 5:04 PM 5:20 PM 5:30 PM 5:46 PM 5:56 PM 6:12 PM 6:42 PM 7:00 PM 7:16 PM 7:32 PM 7:48 PM 8:00 PM 8:24 PM 8:38 PM 9:00 PM 9:18 PM 9:58 PM 10:28 PM 10:44 PM 11:08 PM 11:52 PM 1:42 AM 6:02 AM 8:34 AM 8:52 AM 9:20 AM 9:50 AM 10:02 AM 10:26 AM 10:42 AM 10:52 AM 11:12 AM 11:34 AM 11:48 AM 12:04 PM 12:20 PM 12:32 PM 12:48 PM 1:04 PM 1:16 PM 1:28 PM 1:44 PM 1:54 PM 2:06 PM 2:18 PM 2:30 PM 2:46 PM 3:00 PM 3:12 PM 3:22 PM 3:32 PM 3:46 PM 3:56 PM 4:08 PM 4:18 PM 4:30 PM 4:40 PM 4:52 PM 5:02 PM 5:14 PM 5:24 PM 5:34 PM 5:52 PM 6:06 PM 6:16 PM 6:30 PM 6:42 PM 6:56 PM 7:16 PM 7:30 PM 7:42 PM 8:00 PM 8:12 PM 8:28 PM 8:42 PM 9:08 PM 9:36 PM 10:12 PM 12:14 AM 12:38 AM 2:46 AM 6:16 AM 9:00 AM 9:02 AM 9:04 AM 9:20 AM 9:50 AM 9:58 AM 10:00 AM 10:02 AM 10:10 AM 10:12 AM 10:20 AM 10:30 AM 10:32 AM 10:38 AM 10:40 AM 10:50 AM 10:54 AM 11:04 AM 11:24 AM 11:26 AM 11:30 AM 12:00 PM 12:06 PM 12:12 PM 12:16 PM 1:06 PM 1:16 PM 11:56 AM 11:59 AM 1:06 PM 12:00 AM 11:26 AM 5:16 PM 12:36 PM 10:51 AM 3:29 PM 1:17 PM 12:03 PM 11:46 AM 12:28 PM 9:00 PM 9:02 PM 2:56 PM 10:31 AM 9:11 AM 9:21 AM 10:26 AM 10:26 AM 10:35 AM 2:58 PM 4:33 PM 2:09 PM 11:31 PM 11:45 PM 10:43 AM 11:48 AM

The lighter states haven't been called yet, but are shaded based upon our projection.
The darker states have been called.

NE Districts
01 02 03
ME Districts
01 02

Called States

Alabama (9)
Winner
Trump
Alaska (3)
Winner
Trump
Arizona (11)
Winner
Biden
Arkansas (6)
Winner
Trump
California (55)
Winner
Biden
Colorado (9)
Winner
Biden
Connecticut (7)
Winner
Biden
Delaware (3)
Winner
Biden
District of Columbia (3)
Winner
Biden
Florida (29)
Winner
Trump
Georgia (16)
Winner
Biden
Hawaii (4)
Winner
Biden
Idaho (4)
Winner
Trump
Illinois (20)
Winner
Biden
Indiana (11)
Winner
Trump
Iowa (6)
Winner
Trump
Kansas (6)
Winner
Trump
Kentucky (8)
Winner
Trump
Louisiana (8)
Winner
Trump
Maine (2)
Winner
Biden
Maine CD-1 (1)
Winner
Biden
Maine CD-2 (1)
Winner
Trump
Maryland (10)
Winner
Biden
Massachusetts (11)
Winner
Biden
Michigan (16)
Winner
Biden
Minnesota (10)
Winner
Biden
Mississippi (6)
Winner
Trump
Missouri (10)
Winner
Trump
Montana (3)
Winner
Trump
Nebraska (2)
Winner
Trump
Nebraska CD-1 (1)
Winner
Trump
Nebraska CD-2 (1)
Winner
Biden
Nebraska CD-3 (1)
Winner
Trump
Nevada (6)
Winner
Biden
New Hampshire (4)
Winner
Biden
New Jersey (14)
Winner
Biden
New Mexico (5)
Winner
Biden
New York (29)
Winner
Biden
North Carolina (15)
Winner
Trump
North Dakota (3)
Winner
Trump
Ohio (18)
Winner
Trump
Oklahoma (7)
Winner
Trump
Oregon (7)
Winner
Biden
Pennsylvania (20)
Winner
Biden
Rhode Island (4)
Winner
Biden
South Carolina (9)
Winner
Trump
South Dakota (3)
Winner
Trump
Tennessee (11)
Winner
Trump
Texas (38)
Winner
Trump
Utah (6)
Winner
Trump
Vermont (3)
Winner
Biden
Virginia (13)
Winner
Biden
Washington (12)
Winner
Biden
West Virginia (5)
Winner
Trump
Wisconsin (10)
Winner
Biden
Wyoming (3)
Winner
Trump

Election Night Forecast Changes

This is how the forecast has changed throughout the evening (and days?), all times are EST.



Latest Update

More



Electoral College Votes

Biden 306
306
306
351
Trump 232
232
232
187


Electoral College Simulations

Here are all the electoral college outcomes the forecast currently projects.
It's updated each time we update the live forecast.



Popular Vote

Here's how the popular vote leader has changed throughout the night.



Updates

We'll be posting updates & interesting tidbits on @electoralpolls



Tipping Point States

Which uncalled state will decide the election?

State Projection Tipping %



States

Here's a more detailed list of all the states, their current votes, their projection, how results compared to the polls (currently), and the change from 2016 (currently).

State Votes Leader Projection % Results v. Polls Change from 2016
✓ District of Columbia (3) 92.1%
317,323 		5.4%
18,586 		+86.7%
+298,737 		100% 100% D+5.5% D+0.3%
✓ Vermont (3) 66.1%
242,820 		30.7%
112,704 		+35.4%
+130,116 		100% 100% D+1.1% D+9%
✓ Massachusetts (11) 65.6%
2,382,202 		32.1%
1,167,202 		+33.5%
+1,215,000 		100% 100% R+1.1% D+6.3%
✓ Maryland (10) 65.7%
1,985,023 		32.3%
976,414 		+33.4%
+1,008,609 		100% 97% D+4% D+7%
✓ Hawaii (4) 63.7%
366,130 		34.3%
196,864 		+29.4%
+169,266 		100% 100% R+1% R+2.8%
✓ California (55) 63.5%
11,109,764 		34.3%
6,005,961 		+29.2%
+5,103,803 		100% 100% D+1.4% R+0.9%
✓ Maine CD-1 (1) 60%
263,358 		37%
162,201 		+23%
+101,157 		100% 96% D+2.9% D+15.1%
✓ New York (29) 60.3%
4,970,547 		38.3%
3,159,387 		+22%
+1,811,160 		100% 92% R+5.8% R+0.5%
✓ Rhode Island (4) 59.4%
307,486 		38.6%
199,922 		+20.8%
+107,564 		100% 99% R+2.6% D+5.3%
✓ Connecticut (7) 59.2%
1,080,680 		39.2%
715,291 		+20%
+365,389 		100% 100% R+2.8% D+6.3%
✓ Washington (12) 58.4%
2,369,437 		39%
1,584,588 		+19.4%
+784,849 		100% 99% R+2.3% D+3.7%
✓ Delaware (3) 58.8%
296,268 		39.8%
200,603 		+19%
+95,665 		100% 100% D+1.7% D+7.6%
✓ Illinois (20) 57.5%
3,461,763 		40.5%
2,438,696 		+17%
+1,023,067 		100% 99% D+2.7% 0%
✓ Oregon (7) 56.5%
1,340,291 		40.4%
958,411 		+16.1%
+381,880 		100% 99% R+1.8% D+5.1%
✓ New Jersey (14) 57.1%
2,608,271 		41.3%
1,883,140 		+15.8%
+725,131 		100% 100% R+3.4% D+1.8%
✓ Colorado (9) 55.4%
1,804,196 		41.9%
1,364,471 		+13.5%
+439,725 		100% 99% D+1.3% D+8.6%
✓ New Mexico (5) 54.3%
501,614 		43.5%
401,894 		+10.8%
+99,720 		100% 100% R+0.7% D+2.5%
✓ Virginia (13) 54.1%
2,413,568 		44%
1,962,430 		+10.1%
+451,138 		100% 100% R+0.9% D+4.8%
✓ Maine (2) 52.8%
431,277 		44.1%
360,446 		+8.7%
+70,831 		100% 100% R+3% D+5.8%
✓ New Hampshire (4) 52.8%
424,921 		45.5%
365,654 		+7.3%
+59,267 		100% 100% R+1.7% D+6.9%
✓ Minnesota (10) 52.4%
1,717,077 		45.3%
1,484,065 		+7.1%
+233,012 		100% 100% R+1.4% D+5.6%
✓ Nebraska CD-2 (1) 52.4%
175,800 		45.5%
152,738 		+6.9%
+23,062 		100% 100% D+2.7% D+9.2%
✓ Michigan (16) 50.6%
2,804,040 		47.8%
2,649,852 		+2.8%
+154,188 		100% 100% R+4.2% D+3%
✓ Nevada (6) 50.1%
703,486 		47.7%
669,890 		+2.4%
+33,596 		100% 100% R+2.2% D+0.9%
✓ Pennsylvania (20) 50%
3,459,998 		48.8%
3,378,362 		+1.2%
+81,636 		100% 100% R+3.4% D+1.9%
✓ Wisconsin (10) Tipping Point 49.5%
1,630,716 		48.8%
1,610,151 		+0.7%
+20,565 		100% 100% R+6.6% D+1.4%
✓ Arizona (11) 49.4%
1,672,143 		49.1%
1,661,686 		+0.3%
+10,457 		100% 100% R+2% D+3.9%
✓ Georgia (16) 49.5%
2,474,507 		49.3%
2,461,837 		+0.2%
+12,670 		100% 100% 0% D+5.4%
✓ North Carolina (15) 48.6%
2,684,292 		49.9%
2,758,773 		+1.3%
+74,481 		100% 100% R+2.9% D+2.3%
✓ Florida (29) 47.9%
5,297,045 		51.2%
5,668,731 		+3.3%
+371,686 		100% 100% R+5.5% R+2.1%
✓ Texas (38) 46.5%
5,259,126 		52%
5,890,347 		+5.5%
+631,221 		100% 100% R+4% D+3.5%
✓ Maine CD-2 (1) 45%
156,906 		51.7%
180,287 		+6.7%
+23,381 		100% 71% R+8.8% D+3.6%
✓ Ohio (18) 45.2%
2,679,165 		53.3%
3,154,834 		+8.1%
+475,669 		100% 100% R+6.8% 0%
✓ Iowa (6) 44.9%
758,881 		53.2%
897,467 		+8.3%
+138,586 		100% 98% R+7.6% D+1.2%
✓ Alaska (3) 42.8%
153,778 		52.8%
189,951 		+10%
+36,173 		100% 99% R+1.7% D+4.7%
✓ South Carolina (9) 43.4%
1,091,541 		55.1%
1,385,103 		+11.7%
+293,562 		100% 100% R+3.9% D+2.5%
✓ Nebraska CD-1 (1) 41.4%
131,914 		56.3%
179,408 		+14.9%
+47,494 		100% 99% R+13.1% D+5.8%
✓ Kansas (6) 41.3%
551,144 		56.4%
752,903 		+15.1%
+201,759 		100% 100% R+2.5% D+5.5%
✓ Missouri (10) 41.4%
1,253,561 		56.7%
1,717,912 		+15.3%
+464,351 		100% 99% R+5.9% D+3.4%
✓ Indiana (11) 41%
1,242,495 		57%
1,729,852 		+16%
+487,357 		100% 100% R+4.8% D+2.9%
✓ Montana (3) 40.4%
244,786 		56.7%
343,602 		+16.3%
+98,816 		100% 100% R+9.7% D+4.1%
✓ Mississippi (6) 41%
539,494 		57.5%
756,731 		+16.5%
+217,237 		100% 100% D+2.4% D+1.3%
✓ Louisiana (8) 39.9%
856,034 		58.5%
1,255,776 		+18.6%
+399,742 		100% 100% D+5.7% D+1%
✓ Nebraska (2) 39.3%
374,583 		58.5%
556,846 		+19.2%
+182,263 		100% 100% R+2.1% D+5.9%
✓ Utah (6) 37.6%
560,282 		58.1%
865,140 		+20.5%
+304,858 		100% 100% R+8.4% R+2.5%
✓ Tennessee (11) 37.5%
1,143,711 		60.7%
1,852,475 		+23.2%
+708,764 		100% 100% R+6.5% D+2.8%
✓ Alabama (9) 36.6%
849,624 		62%
1,441,170 		+25.4%
+591,546 		100% 100% R+4.9% D+2.3%
✓ Kentucky (8) 36.2%
772,474 		62.1%
1,326,646 		+25.9%
+554,172 		100% 100% R+8.1% D+3.9%
✓ South Dakota (3) 35.6%
150,471 		61.8%
261,043 		+26.2%
+110,572 		100% 100% R+6.6% D+3.6%
✓ Arkansas (6) 34.8%
423,932 		62.4%
760,647 		+27.6%
+336,715 		100% 100% D+0.9% R+0.7%
✓ Idaho (4) 33.1%
287,021 		63.8%
554,118 		+30.7%
+267,097 		100% 99% R+5.7% D+1.1%
✓ Oklahoma (7) 32.3%
503,890 		65.4%
1,020,280 		+33.1%
+516,390 		100% 100% R+4.2% D+3.3%
✓ North Dakota (3) 31.8%
114,902 		65.1%
235,595 		+33.3%
+120,693 		100% 100% R+10.5% D+2.5%
✓ West Virginia (5) 29.7%
235,984 		68.6%
545,382 		+38.9%
+309,398 		100% 100% R+9.4% D+3.2%
✓ Wyoming (3) 26.6%
73,491 		69.9%
193,559 		+43.3%
+120,068 		100% 100% R+8.5% D+2.5%
✓ Nebraska CD-3 (1) 22.4%
65,805 		75.6%
221,934 		+53.2%
+156,129 		100% 97% D+1% D+1%
Average R+3% D+3.4%
Average (Swing States) R+4% D+3.2%


Pollsters

Here's how pollsters are faring in the election (this will be updated as more votes come in).

We show how much each pollster's polls missed, both their 'Avg Polling Error' (either direction) and their 'Avg Polls v. Results (Bias)'
(directional average of their polling errors, aka, their new 'Bias').

Polls are weighted based upon date and older polls are excluded (so their polling average is mostly their polls close to election day).
Note: we don't include states where less than 90% of the votes have been reported.


Large Pollsters

(More Than 10 Polls or A Rated)

Pollster Rating 538 Bias Avg Polling Error Avg Polls v. Results (Bias) # Polls
+ Susquehanna Polling & Research Inc. C D+0.9% 1.8% D+0.8% 10
State Polls Result Polls v. Results (Bias) # Polls
Arizona R+0.2% D+0.3% R+0.5% 2
Florida R+1.7% R+3.3% D+1.6% 3
North Carolina D+2% R+1.3% D+3.3% 1
Pennsylvania R+0.8% D+1.2% R+2% 1
Wisconsin D+2.3% D+0.7% D+1.6% 3
+ Trafalgar Group C- R+0.9% 2% R+1.1% 28
State Polls Result Polls v. Results (Bias) # Polls
Arizona R+2.7% D+0.3% R+3% 2
Florida R+2.6% R+3.3% D+0.7% 2
Louisiana R+18.2% R+18.6% D+0.4% 1
Michigan R+2.2% D+2.8% R+5% 6
Minnesota D+3.2% D+7.1% R+3.9% 1
Nevada D+2.3% D+2.4% R+0.1% 1
North Carolina R+2.2% R+1.3% R+0.9% 2
Ohio R+4.7% R+8.1% D+3.4% 2
Pennsylvania R+1.1% D+1.2% R+2.3% 6
Wisconsin D+0.9% D+0.7% D+0.2% 5
+ Selzer & Co. A+ D+0.1% 2.3% D+2.3% 4
State Polls Result Polls v. Results (Bias) # Polls
Iowa R+6% R+8.3% D+2.3% 4
+ InsiderAdvantage 2.9% D+0.1% 10
State Polls Result Polls v. Results (Bias) # Polls
Florida R+1.5% R+3.3% D+1.8% 2
Georgia R+2% D+0.2% R+2.2% 1
Iowa R+1.2% R+8.3% D+7.1% 2
Michigan D+2.1% D+2.8% R+0.7% 1
North Carolina R+4.4% R+1.3% R+3.1% 1
Pennsylvania R+1.3% D+1.2% R+2.5% 3
+ Suffolk University A D+0.6% 3.2% D+2.7% 11
State Polls Result Polls v. Results (Bias) # Polls
Arizona D+4% D+0.3% D+3.7% 1
Florida 0% R+3.3% D+3.3% 1
Maine D+12.2% D+8.7% D+3.5% 2
Maine CD-1 D+21.8% D+23% R+1.2% 2
Minnesota D+6.4% D+7.1% R+0.7% 1
New Hampshire D+10.2% D+7.3% D+2.9% 1
North Carolina D+3.9% R+1.3% D+5.2% 2
Pennsylvania D+6.2% D+1.2% D+5% 1
+ AtlasIntel B/C 3.3% D+0.5% 16
State Polls Result Polls v. Results (Bias) # Polls
Arizona R+2.3% D+0.3% R+2.6% 1
California D+35.9% D+29.2% D+6.7% 1
Florida D+0.1% R+3.3% D+3.4% 2
Georgia R+2.2% D+0.2% R+2.4% 1
Michigan D+2.4% D+2.8% R+0.4% 2
Nevada D+2.8% D+2.4% D+0.4% 1
New Hampshire R+2.4% D+7.3% R+9.7% 1
North Carolina R+2% R+1.3% R+0.7% 1
Ohio R+3.9% R+8.1% D+4.2% 1
Pennsylvania R+1.1% D+1.2% R+2.3% 1
South Carolina R+5.8% R+11.7% D+5.9% 1
Texas R+2.7% R+5.5% D+2.8% 2
Wisconsin D+1.9% D+0.7% D+1.2% 1
+ University of Massachusetts Lowell A/B R+0.2% 3.4% D+0.7% 10
State Polls Result Polls v. Results (Bias) # Polls
Massachusetts D+28% D+33.5% R+5.5% 1
New Hampshire D+9.9% D+7.3% D+2.6% 3
North Carolina 0% R+1.3% D+1.3% 3
Texas R+1.3% R+5.5% D+4.2% 3
+ SurveyUSA A D+0.1% 3.6% D+1.6% 32
State Polls Result Polls v. Results (Bias) # Polls
California D+27.5% D+29.2% R+1.7% 9
Colorado D+10% D+13.5% R+3.5% 1
Connecticut D+20% D+20% 0% 1
Georgia D+2.1% D+0.2% D+1.9% 3
Indiana R+7% R+16% D+9% 1
Kansas R+7% R+15.1% D+8.1% 1
Maine D+13% D+8.7% D+4.3% 1
Maine CD-1 D+19% D+23% R+4% 1
Minnesota D+5.6% D+7.1% R+1.5% 4
North Carolina D+1.4% R+1.3% D+2.7% 6
Washington D+22.1% D+19.4% D+2.7% 4
+ Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research C+ R+1.5% 3.8% D+3% 15
State Polls Result Polls v. Results (Bias) # Polls
Arizona R+2.4% D+0.3% R+2.7% 2
Florida R+0.3% R+3.3% D+3% 2
Michigan D+8.6% D+2.8% D+5.8% 1
North Carolina R+1% R+1.3% D+0.3% 3
Ohio R+2.8% R+8.1% D+5.3% 3
Pennsylvania D+3% D+1.2% D+1.8% 3
Wisconsin D+8.4% D+0.7% D+7.7% 1
+ Emerson College A- D+0.3% 3.9% D+2.1% 61
State Polls Result Polls v. Results (Bias) # Polls
Arizona D+2.1% D+0.3% D+1.8% 3
California D+29.4% D+29.2% D+0.2% 2
Colorado D+9.8% D+13.5% R+3.7% 1
Florida D+5% R+3.3% D+8.3% 2
Georgia R+0.8% D+0.2% R+1% 2
Iowa R+0.8% R+8.3% D+7.5% 6
Maine D+11.4% D+8.7% D+2.7% 1
Maine CD-1 D+19% D+23% R+4% 1
Massachusetts D+37.2% D+33.5% D+3.7% 3
Michigan D+7.4% D+2.8% D+4.6% 5
Minnesota D+2% D+7.1% R+5.1% 1
Montana R+12.4% R+16.3% D+3.9% 2
Nebraska CD-2 D+2.6% D+6.9% R+4.3% 1
Nevada D+1.6% D+2.4% R+0.8% 3
New Hampshire D+8% D+7.3% D+0.7% 5
New Jersey D+18.3% D+15.8% D+2.5% 1
New Mexico D+8.6% D+10.8% R+2.2% 1
North Carolina D+0.6% R+1.3% D+1.9% 5
Ohio D+1% R+8.1% D+9.1% 3
Pennsylvania D+4.8% D+1.2% D+3.6% 4
South Carolina R+3.8% R+11.7% D+7.9% 1
Texas R+0.8% R+5.5% D+4.7% 4
Wisconsin D+7.3% D+0.7% D+6.6% 4
+ Marquette Law School 4% D+4% 13
State Polls Result Polls v. Results (Bias) # Polls
Wisconsin D+4.7% D+0.7% D+4% 13
+ East Carolina University B/C 4% D+4% 11
State Polls Result Polls v. Results (Bias) # Polls
North Carolina D+2.8% R+1.3% D+4.1% 9
South Carolina R+7.8% R+11.7% D+3.9% 2
+ YouGov B D+0.4% 4.1% D+3.4% 57
State Polls Result Polls v. Results (Bias) # Polls
Arizona D+3% D+0.3% D+2.7% 3
California D+28% D+29.2% R+1.2% 2
Colorado D+9% D+13.5% R+4.5% 1
Florida D+2% R+3.3% D+5.3% 4
Georgia R+0.1% D+0.2% R+0.3% 3
Iowa 0% R+8.3% D+8.3% 1
Massachusetts D+34.9% D+33.5% D+1.4% 2
Michigan D+8.6% D+2.8% D+5.8% 7
Minnesota D+9% D+7.1% D+1.9% 1
Missouri R+8.6% R+15.3% D+6.7% 2
Nevada D+6% D+2.4% D+3.6% 1
North Carolina D+3.8% R+1.3% D+5.1% 3
Ohio R+0.1% R+8.1% D+8% 2
Pennsylvania D+7.5% D+1.2% D+6.3% 7
South Carolina R+10% R+11.7% D+1.7% 1
Texas R+5.1% R+5.5% D+0.4% 9
Wisconsin D+7.3% D+0.7% D+6.6% 8
+ Data for Progress B- 0% 4.2% D+4% 46
State Polls Result Polls v. Results (Bias) # Polls
Alabama R+20% R+25.4% D+5.4% 1
Arizona D+2.8% D+0.3% D+2.5% 4
Colorado D+12% D+13.5% R+1.5% 1
Florida D+3% R+3.3% D+6.3% 2
Georgia D+1.6% D+0.2% D+1.4% 4
Iowa R+1.9% R+8.3% D+6.4% 4
Kansas R+13.4% R+15.1% D+1.7% 3
Kentucky R+18.7% R+25.9% D+7.2% 2
Maine D+14% D+8.7% D+5.3% 2
Michigan D+5.1% D+2.8% D+2.3% 3
Minnesota D+8% D+7.1% D+0.9% 1
Mississippi R+14% R+16.5% D+2.5% 1
Montana R+6% R+16.3% D+10.3% 1
Nevada D+7% D+2.4% D+4.6% 1
North Carolina D+2.8% R+1.3% D+4.1% 3
Pennsylvania D+7% D+1.2% D+5.8% 1
South Carolina R+8.1% R+11.7% D+3.6% 5
Texas D+1% R+5.5% D+6.5% 6
Virginia D+11% D+10.1% D+0.9% 1
+ Muhlenberg College A+ R+0.2% 4.2% D+4.2% 5
State Polls Result Polls v. Results (Bias) # Polls
Pennsylvania D+5.4% D+1.2% D+4.2% 5
+ Monmouth University A+ D+1.3% 4.5% D+4.5% 35
State Polls Result Polls v. Results (Bias) # Polls
Arizona D+3.3% D+0.3% D+3% 5
Florida D+4.5% R+3.3% D+7.8% 4
Georgia D+1.8% D+0.2% D+1.6% 6
Iowa D+3% R+8.3% D+11.3% 6
Michigan D+7% D+2.8% D+4.2% 1
New Jersey D+16% D+15.8% D+0.2% 1
North Carolina D+2% R+1.3% D+3.3% 4
Pennsylvania D+6.1% D+1.2% D+4.9% 8
+ Morning Consult B/C D+0.2% 4.7% D+4.7% 89
State Polls Result Polls v. Results (Bias) # Polls
Arizona D+1.7% D+0.3% D+1.4% 5
Colorado D+13.6% D+13.5% D+0.1% 5
Florida D+6.1% R+3.3% D+9.4% 6
Georgia D+1.4% D+0.2% D+1.2% 5
Indiana R+11.4% R+16% D+4.6% 1
Michigan D+7.5% D+2.8% D+4.7% 5
Minnesota D+8.8% D+7.1% D+1.7% 6
Missouri R+9.4% R+15.3% D+5.9% 1
North Carolina D+1.5% R+1.3% D+2.8% 6
Ohio R+2.6% R+8.1% D+5.5% 5
Pennsylvania D+8.6% D+1.2% D+7.4% 5
South Carolina R+6.9% R+11.7% D+4.8% 4
Texas 0% R+5.5% D+5.5% 6
Wisconsin D+12% D+0.7% D+11.3% 29
+ Change Research C- D+1.1% 4.8% D+2.9% 31
State Polls Result Polls v. Results (Bias) # Polls
Arizona D+3.7% D+0.3% D+3.4% 4
Florida D+3.4% R+3.3% D+6.7% 4
Iowa 0% R+8.3% D+8.3% 1
Maine D+12% D+8.7% D+3.3% 1
Maine CD-1 D+21% D+23% R+2% 1
Maryland D+29% D+33.4% R+4.4% 1
Michigan D+7.1% D+2.8% D+4.3% 4
Minnesota D+5% D+7.1% R+2.1% 1
Montana R+5% R+16.3% D+11.3% 1
Nebraska CD-2 D+3% D+6.9% R+3.9% 1
North Carolina D+2.2% R+1.3% D+3.5% 4
Pennsylvania D+3.6% D+1.2% D+2.4% 4
Wisconsin D+8% D+0.7% D+7.3% 4
+ EPIC-MRA B+ R+0.2% 4.9% D+4.9% 10
State Polls Result Polls v. Results (Bias) # Polls
Michigan D+7.7% D+2.8% D+4.9% 10
+ Ipsos B- D+0.4% 5% D+5% 63
State Polls Result Polls v. Results (Bias) # Polls
Arizona D+2.3% D+0.3% D+2% 10
Florida D+3.4% R+3.3% D+6.7% 10
Michigan D+9% D+2.8% D+6.2% 11
North Carolina D+1.2% R+1.3% D+2.5% 10
Pennsylvania D+5.8% D+1.2% D+4.6% 11
Wisconsin D+8.8% D+0.7% D+8.1% 11
+ SurveyMonkey D- D+5% 5.1% D+4.2% 586
State Polls Result Polls v. Results (Bias) # Polls
Alabama R+24% R+25.4% D+1.4% 12
Alaska R+8.3% R+10% D+1.7% 10
Arizona D+5.5% D+0.3% D+5.2% 11
Arkansas R+22% R+27.6% D+5.6% 11
California D+25.8% D+29.2% R+3.4% 14
Colorado D+12.8% D+13.5% R+0.7% 11
Connecticut D+22.8% D+20% D+2.8% 12
Delaware D+22.3% D+19% D+3.3% 11
District of Columbia D+87.3% D+86.7% D+0.6% 11
Florida R+2% R+3.3% D+1.3% 13
Georgia D+1.5% D+0.2% D+1.3% 12
Hawaii D+33.9% D+29.4% D+4.5% 11
Idaho R+19.4% R+30.7% D+11.3% 11
Illinois D+17.2% D+17% D+0.2% 12
Indiana R+10.2% R+16% D+5.8% 12
Iowa R+1% R+8.3% D+7.3% 12
Kansas R+9.6% R+15.1% D+5.5% 12
Kentucky R+18.6% R+25.9% D+7.3% 12
Louisiana R+26% R+18.6% R+7.4% 12
Maine D+13.5% D+8.7% D+4.8% 11
Maryland D+34.1% D+33.4% D+0.7% 11
Massachusetts D+39.7% D+33.5% D+6.2% 12
Michigan D+6.2% D+2.8% D+3.4% 12
Minnesota D+13.3% D+7.1% D+6.2% 12
Mississippi R+24.2% R+16.5% R+7.7% 11
Missouri R+10.3% R+15.3% D+5% 12
Montana R+5.8% R+16.3% D+10.5% 10
Nebraska R+12.2% R+19.2% D+7% 11
Nevada D+0.4% D+2.4% R+2% 12
New Hampshire D+6.7% D+7.3% R+0.6% 11
New Jersey D+21.1% D+15.8% D+5.3% 12
New Mexico D+12.7% D+10.8% D+1.9% 12
New York D+28.1% D+22% D+6.1% 12
North Carolina D+4.4% R+1.3% D+5.7% 12
North Dakota R+19.9% R+33.3% D+13.4% 10
Ohio R+2.8% R+8.1% D+5.3% 11
Oklahoma R+27.8% R+33.1% D+5.3% 12
Oregon D+20.4% D+16.1% D+4.3% 12
Pennsylvania D+4.6% D+1.2% D+3.4% 12
Rhode Island D+27.3% D+20.8% D+6.5% 10
South Carolina R+11.1% R+11.7% D+0.6% 12
South Dakota R+24.4% R+26.2% D+1.8% 11
Tennessee R+11% R+23.2% D+12.2% 11
Texas R+4% R+5.5% D+1.5% 12
Utah R+10.7% R+20.5% D+9.8% 12
Vermont D+43.3% D+35.4% D+7.9% 10
Virginia D+14.8% D+10.1% D+4.7% 12
Washington D+26% D+19.4% D+6.6% 11
West Virginia R+34.3% R+38.9% D+4.6% 11
Wisconsin D+10.1% D+0.7% D+9.4% 11
Wyoming R+32.6% R+43.3% D+10.7% 11
+ Civiqs B/C 5.1% D+4.9% 38
State Polls Result Polls v. Results (Bias) # Polls
Arizona D+4% D+0.3% D+3.7% 1
Colorado D+12% D+13.5% R+1.5% 1
Florida D+4% R+3.3% D+7.3% 1
Georgia D+4.7% D+0.2% D+4.5% 3
Iowa D+0.9% R+8.3% D+9.2% 3
Kansas R+10.1% R+15.1% D+5% 2
Kentucky R+20% R+25.9% D+5.9% 1
Michigan D+9% D+2.8% D+6.2% 3
Minnesota D+10% D+7.1% D+2.9% 1
Mississippi R+14% R+16.5% D+2.5% 1
Montana R+4% R+16.3% D+12.3% 1
Nevada D+9% D+2.4% D+6.6% 1
North Carolina D+5% R+1.3% D+6.3% 2
Ohio R+1.4% R+8.1% D+6.7% 4
Oregon D+17% D+16.1% D+0.9% 1
Pennsylvania D+6.8% D+1.2% D+5.6% 5
South Carolina R+10% R+11.7% D+1.7% 1
Texas 0% R+5.5% D+5.5% 1
Virginia D+13% D+10.1% D+2.9% 1
Wisconsin D+4.8% D+0.7% D+4.1% 4
+ Gravis Marketing C D+0.9% 5.2% D+5.2% 11
State Polls Result Polls v. Results (Bias) # Polls
Alaska R+9% R+10% D+1% 1
Arizona D+3.9% D+0.3% D+3.6% 2
Michigan D+13% D+2.8% D+10.2% 1
Minnesota D+14% D+7.1% D+6.9% 1
Nevada D+6% D+2.4% D+3.6% 1
North Carolina D+3% R+1.3% D+4.3% 1
Ohio R+2% R+8.1% D+6.1% 1
Pennsylvania D+7% D+1.2% D+5.8% 1
Texas R+5% R+5.5% D+0.5% 1
Wisconsin D+11% D+0.7% D+10.3% 1
+ Marist College A+ R+0.3% 5.2% D+5.2% 15
State Polls Result Polls v. Results (Bias) # Polls
Arizona D+0.3% D+0.3% 0% 3
Florida D+3.6% R+3.3% D+6.9% 2
Michigan D+8% D+2.8% D+5.2% 1
New Hampshire D+8% D+7.3% D+0.7% 1
North Carolina D+5.9% R+1.3% D+7.2% 3
Ohio D+4% R+8.1% D+12.1% 1
Pennsylvania D+5.4% D+1.2% D+4.2% 2
Texas R+4% R+5.5% D+1.5% 1
Wisconsin D+10% D+0.7% D+9.3% 1
+ RMG Research B/C 5.4% D+4.6% 24
State Polls Result Polls v. Results (Bias) # Polls
Arizona D+1% D+0.3% D+0.7% 1
Colorado D+8% D+13.5% R+5.5% 1
Florida D+3.3% R+3.3% D+6.6% 3
Iowa 0% R+8.3% D+8.3% 2
Kentucky R+17% R+25.9% D+8.9% 1
Maine D+11% D+8.7% D+2.3% 1
Michigan D+6.8% D+2.8% D+4% 2
Montana R+4% R+16.3% D+12.3% 1
North Carolina D+1.2% R+1.3% D+2.5% 2
Pennsylvania D+6% D+1.2% D+4.8% 2
Texas R+4% R+5.5% D+1.5% 1
Utah R+12.7% R+20.5% D+7.8% 6
Wisconsin D+6% D+0.7% D+5.3% 1
+ Siena College/The New York Times Upshot A+ R+0.3% 5.4% D+4.9% 49
State Polls Result Polls v. Results (Bias) # Polls
Alaska R+6% R+10% D+4% 1
Arizona D+6.5% D+0.3% D+6.2% 5
Florida D+3.4% R+3.3% D+6.7% 4
Georgia 0% D+0.2% R+0.2% 2
Iowa D+2.4% R+8.3% D+10.7% 4
Kansas R+7% R+15.1% D+8.1% 1
Maine D+17% D+8.7% D+8.3% 1
Michigan D+8% D+2.8% D+5.2% 4
Minnesota D+9% D+7.1% D+1.9% 1
Montana R+6.2% R+16.3% D+10.1% 2
Nebraska CD-2 D+7% D+6.9% D+0.1% 1
Nevada D+5.9% D+2.4% D+3.5% 3
New Hampshire D+3% D+7.3% R+4.3% 1
North Carolina D+3.2% R+1.3% D+4.5% 5
Ohio D+1% R+8.1% D+9.1% 1
Pennsylvania D+6.4% D+1.2% D+5.2% 5
South Carolina R+8% R+11.7% D+3.7% 1
Texas R+3.9% R+5.5% D+1.6% 2
Wisconsin D+10.3% D+0.7% D+9.6% 5
+ Swayable D- 5.5% D+4.9% 41
State Polls Result Polls v. Results (Bias) # Polls
Alabama R+17.6% R+25.4% D+7.8% 2
Arizona D+5.9% D+0.3% D+5.6% 2
California D+26.7% D+29.2% R+2.5% 1
Colorado D+14.7% D+13.5% D+1.2% 1
Connecticut D+30.4% D+20% D+10.4% 1
Florida D+4.6% R+3.3% D+7.9% 2
Georgia D+7.5% D+0.2% D+7.3% 2
Illinois D+11.4% D+17% R+5.6% 2
Indiana R+11.8% R+16% D+4.2% 2
Kentucky R+13.5% R+25.9% D+12.4% 1
Louisiana R+17.5% R+18.6% D+1.1% 1
Maryland D+35.9% D+33.4% D+2.5% 1
Michigan D+11.5% D+2.8% D+8.7% 2
Minnesota D+9.3% D+7.1% D+2.2% 1
Missouri R+11.2% R+15.3% D+4.1% 1
New Jersey D+20.3% D+15.8% D+4.5% 2
New York D+32.6% D+22% D+10.6% 1
North Carolina D+5.1% R+1.3% D+6.4% 2
Ohio R+6.9% R+8.1% D+1.2% 2
Oregon D+23.2% D+16.1% D+7.1% 1
Pennsylvania D+2.6% D+1.2% D+1.4% 2
South Carolina R+0.9% R+11.7% D+10.8% 1
Tennessee R+16.7% R+23.2% D+6.5% 1
Texas R+3.3% R+5.5% D+2.2% 2
Virginia D+13.9% D+10.1% D+3.8% 2
Washington D+20.3% D+19.4% D+0.9% 1
Wisconsin D+9.5% D+0.7% D+8.8% 2
+ ABC News/The Washington Post A+ D+0.5% 5.6% D+5.3% 11
State Polls Result Polls v. Results (Bias) # Polls
Arizona R+1% D+0.3% R+1.3% 1
Florida R+2.2% R+3.3% D+1.1% 2
Michigan D+7% D+2.8% D+4.2% 1
Minnesota D+16% D+7.1% D+8.9% 1
North Carolina D+1.7% R+1.3% D+3% 2
Pennsylvania D+7.3% D+1.2% D+6.1% 2
Wisconsin D+15.6% D+0.7% D+14.9% 2
+ Public Policy Polling B D+0.3% 5.6% D+5.3% 86
State Polls Result Polls v. Results (Bias) # Polls
Alaska R+5% R+10% D+5% 3
Arizona D+2.5% D+0.3% D+2.2% 3
California D+38% D+29.2% D+8.8% 1
Colorado D+14.2% D+13.5% D+0.7% 2
Delaware D+21% D+19% D+2% 1
Florida D+6.9% R+3.3% D+10.2% 2
Georgia D+1.8% D+0.2% D+1.6% 6
Iowa D+0.8% R+8.3% D+9.1% 5
Kansas R+11.7% R+15.1% D+3.4% 3
Kentucky R+16% R+25.9% D+9.9% 1
Maine D+11% D+8.7% D+2.3% 4
Maine CD-1 D+20% D+23% R+3% 1
Michigan D+8.6% D+2.8% D+5.8% 12
Minnesota D+10.8% D+7.1% D+3.7% 3
Montana R+3% R+16.3% D+13.3% 4
New Mexico D+13.8% D+10.8% D+3% 3
New York D+31% D+22% D+9% 1
North Carolina D+3.9% R+1.3% D+5.2% 12
Ohio D+2.7% R+8.1% D+10.8% 2
Pennsylvania D+6.4% D+1.2% D+5.2% 3
Texas D+1.5% R+5.5% D+7% 10
Washington D+23% D+19.4% D+3.6% 2
Wisconsin D+3.7% D+0.7% D+3% 2
+ Hart Research Associates 6% D+6% 10
State Polls Result Polls v. Results (Bias) # Polls
Arizona D+11% D+0.3% D+10.7% 1
Florida D+6% R+3.3% D+9.3% 1
Georgia D+3% D+0.2% D+2.8% 1
Iowa R+2% R+8.3% D+6.3% 1
Michigan D+5% D+2.8% D+2.2% 1
North Carolina D+2% R+1.3% D+3.3% 1
Ohio R+2% R+8.1% D+6.1% 1
Pennsylvania D+11% D+1.2% D+9.8% 1
Texas R+2% R+5.5% D+3.5% 1
Wisconsin D+7% D+0.7% D+6.3% 1
+ Fox News 6.2% D+6.2% 28
State Polls Result Polls v. Results (Bias) # Polls
Arizona D+7.5% D+0.3% D+7.2% 2
Florida D+7% R+3.3% D+10.3% 2
Georgia D+2% D+0.2% D+1.8% 1
Michigan D+11.5% D+2.8% D+8.7% 3
Minnesota D+13% D+7.1% D+5.9% 1
Nevada D+9.9% D+2.4% D+7.5% 3
North Carolina D+3.2% R+1.3% D+4.5% 3
Ohio R+1.5% R+8.1% D+6.6% 3
Pennsylvania D+5.7% D+1.2% D+4.5% 4
Texas D+1% R+5.5% D+6.5% 1
Wisconsin D+5.6% D+0.7% D+4.9% 5
+ Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy B+ R+0.6% 6.5% D+3.4% 13
State Polls Result Polls v. Results (Bias) # Polls
Alabama R+20% R+25.4% D+5.4% 1
Florida D+3% R+3.3% D+6.3% 3
Georgia R+7% D+0.2% R+7.2% 1
Kentucky R+17% R+25.9% D+8.9% 1
Minnesota D+6.4% D+7.1% R+0.7% 3
Mississippi R+15% R+16.5% D+1.5% 1
South Dakota R+11% R+26.2% D+15.2% 1
Tennessee R+16% R+23.2% D+7.2% 1
Virginia D+4% D+10.1% R+6.1% 1
+ Quinnipiac University B+ D+0.2% 6.6% D+5.6% 43
State Polls Result Polls v. Results (Bias) # Polls
Connecticut D+23% D+20% D+3% 1
Florida D+5% R+3.3% D+8.3% 7
Georgia D+6.1% D+0.2% D+5.9% 2
Iowa 0% R+8.3% D+8.3% 2
Kentucky R+17.3% R+25.9% D+8.6% 2
Maine D+19.5% D+8.7% D+10.8% 2
Maine CD-1 D+31.8% D+23% D+8.8% 2
Michigan D+4% D+2.8% D+1.2% 1
New Jersey D+19% D+15.8% D+3.2% 1
New York D+23% D+22% D+1% 1
Ohio D+3.9% R+8.1% D+12% 6
Pennsylvania D+7.8% D+1.2% D+6.6% 6
South Carolina R+2.4% R+11.7% D+9.3% 3
Texas R+0.5% R+5.5% D+5% 6
Wisconsin R+7% D+0.7% R+7.7% 1
+ Redfield & Wilton Strategies 6.6% D+6.6% 24
State Polls Result Polls v. Results (Bias) # Polls
Arizona D+3.8% D+0.3% D+3.5% 4
Florida D+4.6% R+3.3% D+7.9% 4
Michigan D+12.3% D+2.8% D+9.5% 4
North Carolina D+2.5% R+1.3% D+3.8% 4
Pennsylvania D+5.4% D+1.2% D+4.2% 4
Wisconsin D+11.6% D+0.7% D+10.9% 4
+ CNN/SSRS 7.1% D+5.2% 15
State Polls Result Polls v. Results (Bias) # Polls
Arizona D+4% D+0.3% D+3.7% 2
California D+21.6% D+29.2% R+7.6% 2
Florida D+4% R+3.3% D+7.3% 2
Michigan D+12% D+2.8% D+9.2% 2
North Carolina D+5.9% R+1.3% D+7.2% 2
Pennsylvania D+10% D+1.2% D+8.8% 1
Texas D+0.4% R+5.5% D+5.9% 2
Wisconsin D+8.1% D+0.7% D+7.4% 2
+ Siena College A- R+0.7% 7.9% D+7.9% 6
State Polls Result Polls v. Results (Bias) # Polls
New York D+29.9% D+22% D+7.9% 6


Smaller Pollsters

(Less Than 10 Polls)

Pollster Rating 538 Bias Avg Polling Error Avg Polls v. Results (Bias) # Polls
+ University of Georgia B/C R+0.3% 0.2% R+0.2% 4
State Polls Result Polls v. Results (Bias) # Polls
Georgia 0% D+0.2% R+0.2% 4
+ MassINC Polling Group A/B R+0.7% 0.4% D+0.4% 3
State Polls Result Polls v. Results (Bias) # Polls
Massachusetts D+33.9% D+33.5% D+0.4% 3
+ Basswood Research B/C R+0.2% 0.4% R+0.4% 3
State Polls Result Polls v. Results (Bias) # Polls
Arizona R+0.1% D+0.3% R+0.4% 3
+ Fairleigh Dickinson University (PublicMind) A/B 0% 0.4% R+0.4% 2
State Polls Result Polls v. Results (Bias) # Polls
New Jersey D+15.4% D+15.8% R+0.4% 2
+ WPA Intelligence 0.4% R+0.4% 1
State Polls Result Polls v. Results (Bias) # Polls
Nevada D+2% D+2.4% R+0.4% 1
+ HighGround Inc. B/C R+0.4% 0.7% D+0.7% 1
State Polls Result Polls v. Results (Bias) # Polls
Arizona D+1% D+0.3% D+0.7% 1
+ Fort Hays State University C/D R+1.4% 0.7% D+0.7% 1
State Polls Result Polls v. Results (Bias) # Polls
Kansas R+14.4% R+15.1% D+0.7% 1
+ Public Opinion Strategies B+ R+1.5% 0.8% D+0.8% 1
State Polls Result Polls v. Results (Bias) # Polls
Georgia D+1% D+0.2% D+0.8% 1
+ Saint Anselm College 0.8% D+0.8% 2
State Polls Result Polls v. Results (Bias) # Polls
New Hampshire D+8.1% D+7.3% D+0.8% 2
+ Roanoke College B/C D+0.5% 0.9% D+0.9% 1
State Polls Result Polls v. Results (Bias) # Polls
Virginia D+11% D+10.1% D+0.9% 1
+ The Washington Post/George Mason University 0.9% D+0.9% 1
State Polls Result Polls v. Results (Bias) # Polls
Virginia D+11% D+10.1% D+0.9% 1
+ Keating Research/OnSight Public Affairs/Melanson B/C R+0.1% 0.9% R+0.9% 2
State Polls Result Polls v. Results (Bias) # Polls
Colorado D+12.6% D+13.5% R+0.9% 2
+ Cardinal Point Analytics (CardinalGPS) 0.9% R+0.9% 1
State Polls Result Polls v. Results (Bias) # Polls
North Carolina R+2.2% R+1.3% R+0.9% 1
+ Bendixen & Amandi International B/C D+0.1% 1.3% R+1.3% 1
State Polls Result Polls v. Results (Bias) # Polls
Arizona R+1% D+0.3% R+1.3% 1
+ Christopher Newport University B/C D+0.7% 1.3% D+1.3% 2
State Polls Result Polls v. Results (Bias) # Polls
Virginia D+11.4% D+10.1% D+1.3% 2
+ Research & Polling Inc. B+ R+0.9% 1.4% D+1.4% 2
State Polls Result Polls v. Results (Bias) # Polls
New Mexico D+12.2% D+10.8% D+1.4% 2
+ OpinionWorks B/C R+0.5% 1.4% R+1.4% 1
State Polls Result Polls v. Results (Bias) # Polls
Maryland D+32% D+33.4% R+1.4% 1
+ Victory Research B/C 0% 1.4% R+1.4% 2
State Polls Result Polls v. Results (Bias) # Polls
Illinois D+15.6% D+17% R+1.4% 2
+ University of New Hampshire B- D+2.8% 1.6% D+1.6% 3
State Polls Result Polls v. Results (Bias) # Polls
New Hampshire D+8.9% D+7.3% D+1.6% 3
+ Data Orbital A/B D+0.3% 1.7% D+1.7% 5
State Polls Result Polls v. Results (Bias) # Polls
Arizona D+2% D+0.3% D+1.7% 5
+ Virginia Commonwealth University B/C R+0.2% 2% D+2% 2
State Polls Result Polls v. Results (Bias) # Polls
Virginia D+12.1% D+10.1% D+2% 2
+ Marketing Resource Group (MRG) B/C D+0.3% 2.2% D+2.2% 1
State Polls Result Polls v. Results (Bias) # Polls
Michigan D+5% D+2.8% D+2.2% 1
+ Goucher College 2.4% R+2.4% 1
State Polls Result Polls v. Results (Bias) # Polls
Maryland D+31% D+33.4% R+2.4% 1
+ Univision/University of Houston/Latino Decisions B/C 2.5% D+2.5% 1
State Polls Result Polls v. Results (Bias) # Polls
Texas R+3% R+5.5% D+2.5% 1
+ Latino Decisions B/C 2.5% D+2.5% 4
State Polls Result Polls v. Results (Bias) # Polls
Arizona D+3.2% D+0.3% D+2.9% 2
Florida R+3% R+3.3% D+0.3% 1
Wisconsin D+5% D+0.7% D+4.3% 1
+ Wick 2.5% R+0.6% 6
State Polls Result Polls v. Results (Bias) # Polls
Florida R+2.9% R+3.3% D+0.4% 1
Georgia R+2.5% D+0.2% R+2.7% 1
Michigan D+0.3% D+2.8% R+2.5% 1
North Carolina R+2.2% R+1.3% R+0.9% 1
Ohio R+2.9% R+8.1% D+5.2% 1
Pennsylvania R+2.1% D+1.2% R+3.3% 1
+ Colby College 2.7% D+1.7% 2
State Polls Result Polls v. Results (Bias) # Polls
Maine D+13% D+8.7% D+4.3% 1
Maine CD-1 D+22% D+23% R+1% 1
+ Public Policy Institute of California A/B R+1% 2.9% R+2.9% 3
State Polls Result Polls v. Results (Bias) # Polls
California D+26.3% D+29.2% R+2.9% 3
+ Cygnal A/B D+1% 2.9% D+1.5% 4
State Polls Result Polls v. Results (Bias) # Polls
Florida D+3.2% R+3.3% D+6.5% 1
Georgia R+1.1% D+0.2% R+1.3% 1
Virginia D+9.3% D+10.1% R+0.8% 2
+ OH Predictive Insights B/C R+0.9% 3% D+3% 4
State Polls Result Polls v. Results (Bias) # Polls
Arizona D+3.3% D+0.3% D+3% 4
+ Hendrix College B/C D+1.5% 3.1% D+3.1% 1
State Polls Result Polls v. Results (Bias) # Polls
Arkansas R+24.5% R+27.6% D+3.1% 1
+ Harper Polling B/C D+0.1% 3.1% R+1% 3
State Polls Result Polls v. Results (Bias) # Polls
Minnesota D+3% D+7.1% R+4.1% 1
North Carolina D+0.8% R+1.3% D+2.1% 2
+ Pulse Opinion Research 3.2% D+1.3% 3
State Polls Result Polls v. Results (Bias) # Polls
Nevada D+1% D+2.4% R+1.4% 1
New Hampshire D+14% D+7.3% D+6.7% 1
Texas R+7% R+5.5% R+1.5% 1
+ MRG Research B/C R+2.1% 3.2% D+3.2% 2
State Polls Result Polls v. Results (Bias) # Polls
Hawaii D+32.6% D+29.4% D+3.2% 2
+ AYTM 3.3% D+3.3% 3
State Polls Result Polls v. Results (Bias) # Polls
Florida D+2% R+3.3% D+5.3% 1
Georgia D+4% D+0.2% D+3.8% 1
Pennsylvania D+2% D+1.2% D+0.8% 1
+ Landmark Communications B D+1.5% 3.3% R+3.3% 7
State Polls Result Polls v. Results (Bias) # Polls
Georgia R+3.1% D+0.2% R+3.3% 7
+ Global Strategy Group B/C D+1.8% 3.4% D+2% 6
State Polls Result Polls v. Results (Bias) # Polls
Colorado D+12.4% D+13.5% R+1.1% 3
Nebraska CD-2 D+6% D+6.9% R+0.9% 1
Pennsylvania D+9.3% D+1.2% D+8.1% 2
+ RBI Strategies & Research B/C +0% 3.5% D+3.5% 1
State Polls Result Polls v. Results (Bias) # Polls
Colorado D+17% D+13.5% D+3.5% 1
+ co/efficient C/D D+0.2% 3.7% R+3.7% 2
State Polls Result Polls v. Results (Bias) # Polls
Kansas R+17% R+15.1% R+1.9% 1
Vermont D+30% D+35.4% R+5.4% 1
+ Pan Atlantic Research B/C D+0.8% 3.7% R+1.8% 2
State Polls Result Polls v. Results (Bias) # Polls
Maine D+10.6% D+8.7% D+1.9% 1
Maine CD-1 D+17.5% D+23% R+5.5% 1
+ Frederick Polls B/C +0% 3.8% D+3.8% 3
State Polls Result Polls v. Results (Bias) # Polls
Florida D+2% R+3.3% D+5.3% 1
North Carolina D+2% R+1.3% D+3.3% 1
Pennsylvania D+4% D+1.2% D+2.8% 1
+ Whitman Insight Strategies 3.8% D+3.8% 1
State Polls Result Polls v. Results (Bias) # Polls
Pennsylvania D+5% D+1.2% D+3.8% 1
+ University of Nevada Las Vegas Lee Business School 3.8% D+2.8% 2
State Polls Result Polls v. Results (Bias) # Polls
Nebraska CD-2 D+5.9% D+6.9% R+1% 1
Nevada D+9% D+2.4% D+6.6% 1
+ GBAO B/C 0% 3.9% D+3.9% 3
State Polls Result Polls v. Results (Bias) # Polls
Georgia D+3% D+0.2% D+2.8% 1
New Mexico D+13% D+10.8% D+2.2% 1
South Carolina R+5% R+11.7% D+6.7% 1
+ DHM Research B/C R+0.1% 4.1% R+4.1% 1
State Polls Result Polls v. Results (Bias) # Polls
Oregon D+12% D+16.1% R+4.1% 1
+ FM3 Research B/C D+0.5% 4.1% D+4.1% 1
State Polls Result Polls v. Results (Bias) # Polls
Nebraska CD-2 D+11% D+6.9% D+4.1% 1
+ Univision/Latino Decisions/North Star Opinion Research 4.2% D+4.2% 3
State Polls Result Polls v. Results (Bias) # Polls
Florida D+3% R+3.3% D+6.3% 1
Pennsylvania D+5% D+1.2% D+3.8% 1
Texas R+3% R+5.5% D+2.5% 1
+ David Binder Research B/C 4.3% D+4.3% 5
State Polls Result Polls v. Results (Bias) # Polls
California D+31% D+29.2% D+1.8% 2
Iowa R+6% R+8.3% D+2.3% 1
Minnesota D+11% D+7.1% D+3.9% 1
Wisconsin D+10% D+0.7% D+9.3% 1
+ Meeting Street Insights 4.3% D+4.3% 2
State Polls Result Polls v. Results (Bias) # Polls
North Carolina D+3% R+1.3% D+4.3% 2
+ University of New Orleans B/C D+0.3% 4.3% R+4.3% 1
State Polls Result Polls v. Results (Bias) # Polls
Louisiana R+22.9% R+18.6% R+4.3% 1
+ Research Co. B- R+0.5% 4.3% D+4.3% 8
State Polls Result Polls v. Results (Bias) # Polls
Illinois D+17% D+17% 0% 1
Michigan D+7% D+2.8% D+4.2% 1
Minnesota D+9% D+7.1% D+1.9% 1
New Jersey D+18% D+15.8% D+2.2% 1
New York D+28% D+22% D+6% 1
Ohio 0% R+8.1% D+8.1% 1
Pennsylvania D+6% D+1.2% D+4.8% 1
Wisconsin D+8% D+0.7% D+7.3% 1
+ CCES / YouGov 4.3% D+4.3% 5
State Polls Result Polls v. Results (Bias) # Polls
Florida D+2% R+3.3% D+5.3% 1
Georgia D+1% D+0.2% D+0.8% 1
North Carolina D+4% R+1.3% D+5.3% 1
Pennsylvania D+8% D+1.2% D+6.8% 1
Texas R+2% R+5.5% D+3.5% 1
+ Starboard Communications B/C D+0.1% 4.4% D+4.4% 1
State Polls Result Polls v. Results (Bias) # Polls
South Carolina R+7.3% R+11.7% D+4.4% 1
+ Beacon Research B/C 4.5% D+4.5% 1
State Polls Result Polls v. Results (Bias) # Polls
Texas R+1% R+5.5% D+4.5% 1
+ St. Pete Polls C R+0.4% 4.6% D+4.6% 5
State Polls Result Polls v. Results (Bias) # Polls
Florida D+1.3% R+3.3% D+4.6% 5
+ Univision/University of Arizona/Latino Decisions/North Star Opinion Research 4.7% D+4.7% 1
State Polls Result Polls v. Results (Bias) # Polls
Arizona D+5% D+0.3% D+4.7% 1
+ Stockton University A/B D+0.7% 4.7% D+4.7% 1
State Polls Result Polls v. Results (Bias) # Polls
New Jersey D+20.5% D+15.8% D+4.7% 1
+ Franklin & Marshall College B/C D+0.4% 4.8% D+4.8% 4
State Polls Result Polls v. Results (Bias) # Polls
Pennsylvania D+6% D+1.2% D+4.8% 4
+ Meredith College B/C 4.8% D+4.8% 4
State Polls Result Polls v. Results (Bias) # Polls
North Carolina D+3.5% R+1.3% D+4.8% 4
+ Reconnect Research/Roanoke College 4.9% D+4.9% 1
State Polls Result Polls v. Results (Bias) # Polls
Virginia D+15% D+10.1% D+4.9% 1
+ Strategies 360 B/C R+0.1% 4.9% D+4.9% 3
State Polls Result Polls v. Results (Bias) # Polls
Arizona D+4% D+0.3% D+3.7% 1
Montana R+8% R+16.3% D+8.3% 1
Washington D+22% D+19.4% D+2.6% 1
+ Harris Poll 5% D+5% 6
State Polls Result Polls v. Results (Bias) # Polls
Florida D+2.4% R+3.3% D+5.7% 2
Michigan D+11% D+2.8% D+8.2% 1
North Carolina D+1% R+1.3% D+2.3% 1
Pennsylvania D+5% D+1.2% D+3.8% 2
+ TargetSmart 5% D+0.8% 2
State Polls Result Polls v. Results (Bias) # Polls
Georgia R+4% D+0.2% R+4.2% 1
Pennsylvania D+7% D+1.2% D+5.8% 1
+ Sacred Heart University B/C R+0.3% 5% D+5% 1
State Polls Result Polls v. Results (Bias) # Polls
Connecticut D+25% D+20% D+5% 1
+ Cole Hargrave Snodgrass & Associates B/C D+0.1% 5.1% D+5.1% 1
State Polls Result Polls v. Results (Bias) # Polls
Oklahoma R+28% R+33.1% D+5.1% 1
+ Glengariff Group B/C D+0.3% 5.1% D+5.1% 3
State Polls Result Polls v. Results (Bias) # Polls
Michigan D+7.9% D+2.8% D+5.1% 3
+ ALG Research B/C D+1.5% 5.2% D+5.2% 5
State Polls Result Polls v. Results (Bias) # Polls
Michigan D+8% D+2.8% D+5.2% 1
Nevada D+4% D+2.4% D+1.6% 1
North Carolina D+3% R+1.3% D+4.3% 1
Ohio D+2% R+8.1% D+10.1% 1
Pennsylvania D+6% D+1.2% D+4.8% 1
+ Baldwin Wallace University (Great Lakes Poll) 5.2% D+5.2% 4
State Polls Result Polls v. Results (Bias) # Polls
Michigan D+7% D+2.8% D+4.2% 1
Ohio R+1.6% R+8.1% D+6.5% 1
Pennsylvania D+5.1% D+1.2% D+3.9% 1
Wisconsin D+6.7% D+0.7% D+6% 1
+ University of Arkansas B/C D+0.7% 5.4% R+5.4% 1
State Polls Result Polls v. Results (Bias) # Polls
Arkansas R+33% R+27.6% R+5.4% 1
+ EMC Research 5.5% D+5.5% 1
State Polls Result Polls v. Results (Bias) # Polls
Texas 0% R+5.5% D+5.5% 1
+ Mitchell Research & Communications C- D+0.8% 5.5% D+5.5% 3
State Polls Result Polls v. Results (Bias) # Polls
Michigan D+8.3% D+2.8% D+5.5% 3
+ The Justice Collaborative Institute 5.7% D+5.7% 1
State Polls Result Polls v. Results (Bias) # Polls
Arizona D+6% D+0.3% D+5.7% 1
+ Florida Atlantic University B/C D+0.4% 5.7% D+5.7% 8
State Polls Result Polls v. Results (Bias) # Polls
Florida D+2.4% R+3.3% D+5.7% 8
+ Critical Insights C/D R+0.1% 5.7% D+5.7% 2
State Polls Result Polls v. Results (Bias) # Polls
Maine D+11% D+8.7% D+2.3% 1
Maine CD-1 D+32% D+23% D+9% 1
+ University of North Florida A/B D+0.7% 5.8% D+5.8% 5
State Polls Result Polls v. Results (Bias) # Polls
Florida D+2.5% R+3.3% D+5.8% 5
+ HarrisX 6% D+6% 1
State Polls Result Polls v. Results (Bias) # Polls
Georgia D+6.2% D+0.2% D+6% 1
+ Alaska Survey Research B/C D+1.8% 6% D+6% 1
State Polls Result Polls v. Results (Bias) # Polls
Alaska R+4% R+10% D+6% 1
+ Opinion Insight 6.1% D+6.1% 6
State Polls Result Polls v. Results (Bias) # Polls
Georgia D+3.6% D+0.2% D+3.4% 2
Iowa D+0.9% R+8.3% D+9.2% 2
Michigan D+8.6% D+2.8% D+5.8% 2
+ DKC Analytics 6.2% D+6.2% 1
State Polls Result Polls v. Results (Bias) # Polls
New Jersey D+22% D+15.8% D+6.2% 1
+ Auburn University at Montgomery 6.2% D+6.2% 2
State Polls Result Polls v. Results (Bias) # Polls
Alabama R+19.2% R+25.4% D+6.2% 2
+ Citizen Data 6.6% D+6.6% 7
State Polls Result Polls v. Results (Bias) # Polls
Florida D+4.9% R+3.3% D+8.2% 1
Georgia D+4.5% D+0.2% D+4.3% 1
Michigan D+8.1% D+2.8% D+5.3% 1
North Carolina D+6.6% R+1.3% D+7.9% 1
Ohio R+1.2% R+8.1% D+6.9% 1
Pennsylvania D+5.3% D+1.2% D+4.1% 1
Texas D+3.9% R+5.5% D+9.4% 1
+ Targoz Market Research C/D D+1.6% 6.8% D+6.3% 5
State Polls Result Polls v. Results (Bias) # Polls
Arizona R+1% D+0.3% R+1.3% 1
Florida D+3.7% R+3.3% D+7% 1
Michigan D+14% D+2.8% D+11.2% 1
Minnesota D+9% D+7.1% D+1.9% 1
Pennsylvania D+14% D+1.2% D+12.8% 1
+ Zia Poll C/D R+0.5% 6.8% R+6.8% 1
State Polls Result Polls v. Results (Bias) # Polls
Michigan R+4% D+2.8% R+6.8% 1
+ University of California, Berkeley 6.8% D+6.8% 1
State Polls Result Polls v. Results (Bias) # Polls
California D+36% D+29.2% D+6.8% 1
+ Patinkin Research Strategies 6.9% D+6.9% 3
State Polls Result Polls v. Results (Bias) # Polls
Alaska R+3% R+10% D+7% 1
Arizona D+7% D+0.3% D+6.7% 2
+ OnMessage Inc. B/C R+1.4% 7.2% D+7.2% 2
State Polls Result Polls v. Results (Bias) # Polls
Ohio R+0.9% R+8.1% D+7.2% 2
+ GQR Research 7.4% D+7.4% 3
State Polls Result Polls v. Results (Bias) # Polls
Florida D+5% R+3.3% D+8.3% 1
Michigan D+9% D+2.8% D+6.2% 1
Pennsylvania D+9% D+1.2% D+7.8% 1
+ Y2 Analytics B/C D+0.4% 7.9% D+7.9% 4
State Polls Result Polls v. Results (Bias) # Polls
Arizona D+3% D+0.3% D+2.7% 1
Utah R+7.5% R+20.5% D+13% 3
+ St. Cloud State University B/C D+0.3% 7.9% D+7.9% 1
State Polls Result Polls v. Results (Bias) # Polls
Minnesota D+15% D+7.1% D+7.9% 1
+ Ragnar Research Partners 8% D+8% 1
State Polls Result Polls v. Results (Bias) # Polls
Indiana R+8% R+16% D+8% 1
+ Rutgers University B/C +0% 8.2% D+8.2% 2
State Polls Result Polls v. Results (Bias) # Polls
New Jersey D+24% D+15.8% D+8.2% 2
+ University of Texas at Tyler B/C R+0.3% 8.2% D+8.2% 9
State Polls Result Polls v. Results (Bias) # Polls
Texas D+2.7% R+5.5% D+8.2% 9
+ Cherry Communications B/C R+0.5% 8.3% D+8.3% 1
State Polls Result Polls v. Results (Bias) # Polls
Florida D+5% R+3.3% D+8.3% 1
+ Gonzales Research & Marketing Strategies Inc. B/C R+0.3% 8.3% R+8.3% 1
State Polls Result Polls v. Results (Bias) # Polls
Maryland D+25.1% D+33.4% R+8.3% 1
+ Moore Information B/C R+0.7% 8.4% D+8.4% 1
State Polls Result Polls v. Results (Bias) # Polls
Alabama R+17% R+25.4% D+8.4% 1
+ Spry Strategies B/C R+0.3% 8.8% R+3.3% 2
State Polls Result Polls v. Results (Bias) # Polls
California D+17.2% D+29.2% R+12% 1
Idaho R+25.2% R+30.7% D+5.5% 1
+ Harstad Strategic Research Inc. B/C D+0.6% 9% D+9% 1
State Polls Result Polls v. Results (Bias) # Polls
Alaska R+1% R+10% D+9% 1
+ Montana State University Billings B/C D+0.3% 9.3% D+9.3% 1
State Polls Result Polls v. Results (Bias) # Polls
Montana R+7% R+16.3% D+9.3% 1
+ Saint Leo University C/D D+1.8% 9.3% D+9.3% 1
State Polls Result Polls v. Results (Bias) # Polls
Florida D+6% R+3.3% D+9.3% 1
+ TIPP 9.4% D+9.4% 3
State Polls Result Polls v. Results (Bias) # Polls
Florida D+11% R+3.3% D+14.3% 1
Michigan D+13% D+2.8% D+10.2% 1
Pennsylvania D+5% D+1.2% D+3.8% 1
+ The Tyson Group B/C +0% 9.5% D+9.5% 3
State Polls Result Polls v. Results (Bias) # Polls
Louisiana R+6% R+18.6% D+12.6% 1
Mississippi R+10% R+16.5% D+6.5% 1
Texas D+4% R+5.5% D+9.5% 1
+ Remington Research Group C- D+1.2% 10.1% D+10.1% 4
State Polls Result Polls v. Results (Bias) # Polls
Missouri R+5.2% R+15.3% D+10.1% 4
+ Kiaer Research 10.1% D+10.1% 1
State Polls Result Polls v. Results (Bias) # Polls
Michigan D+12.9% D+2.8% D+10.1% 1
+ Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group B/C D+1.3% 10.1% D+10.1% 2
State Polls Result Polls v. Results (Bias) # Polls
Georgia D+7% D+0.2% D+6.8% 1
Missouri R+2% R+15.3% D+13.3% 1
+ Clearview Research 10.3% D+10.3% 1
State Polls Result Polls v. Results (Bias) # Polls
Florida D+7% R+3.3% D+10.3% 1
+ American Research Group B R+0.2% 10.3% D+10.3% 2
State Polls Result Polls v. Results (Bias) # Polls
New Hampshire D+17.6% D+7.3% D+10.3% 2
+ SoonerPoll 11% D+11% 3
State Polls Result Polls v. Results (Bias) # Polls
Oklahoma R+22.1% R+33.1% D+11% 3
+ Nielson Brothers Polling C/D D+2.9% 11.2% D+11.2% 1
State Polls Result Polls v. Results (Bias) # Polls
South Dakota R+15% R+26.2% D+11.2% 1
+ RABA Research B/C D+0.3% 12.1% D+12.1% 2
State Polls Result Polls v. Results (Bias) # Polls
Iowa D+3.8% R+8.3% D+12.1% 2
+ Braun Research B/C D+1.2% 12.2% R+12.2% 1
State Polls Result Polls v. Results (Bias) # Polls
Vermont D+23.2% D+35.4% R+12.2% 1
+ Bluegrass Community and Technical College 12.7% D+12.7% 1
State Polls Result Polls v. Results (Bias) # Polls
Kentucky R+13.2% R+25.9% D+12.7% 1
+ SSRS B/C D+1.2% 14.2% D+14.2% 1
State Polls Result Polls v. Results (Bias) # Polls
Tennessee R+9% R+23.2% D+14.2% 1
+ University of Wyoming 15.3% D+15.3% 1
State Polls Result Polls v. Results (Bias) # Polls
Wyoming R+28% R+43.3% D+15.3% 1
+ Research America Inc. B/C D+0.1% 15.9% D+15.9% 2
State Polls Result Polls v. Results (Bias) # Polls
Virginia D+17% D+10.1% D+6.9% 1
West Virginia R+14% R+38.9% D+24.9% 1
+ DFM Research B/C D+1.5% 18.4% D+18.4% 2
State Polls Result Polls v. Results (Bias) # Polls
North Dakota R+14.9% R+33.3% D+18.4% 2
+ Triton Polling & Research 18.9% D+18.9% 2
State Polls Result Polls v. Results (Bias) # Polls
West Virginia R+20% R+38.9% D+18.9% 2


About

Every 2 minutes we get the latest vote count in every state. We then re-run our 20,000 simulations of the election to project who's most likely to win each state and the election overall. Your screen will update automatically with the latest info (so no need to hit refresh).

As we get more votes in, we'll defer to the vote count more (rather than the polls) and start narrowing the range our model tests in its simulations.

Some other more detailed info we'd like to note:

Vote Count vs Polls
The vote count slowly takes over the polls in our live projection, very slowly at first (as the early numbers may be all over the place), but as we get more of the total vote in, the vote count will take over. The chart below shows about how much of our projection is votes at each reporting level:

% Reporting % of Projection That Is Votes
10% 0.4%
20% 1.4%
30% 3.9%
40% 9.3%
50% 19.6%
60% 35.7%
70% 55.1%
80% 72.7%
90% 85%

Calling States
A state isn't 'called' in our projections until a TV network calls it. If a state wasn't 'Safe' before the election, the live election night projection will max out at a 99.9% probability until it's actually called.

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