Louisiana

If Election Today more aggressive + 2016 Polling Error assumes same polling errors

Safe Trump

Win Probability

Biden
Trump
Biden
0%
Polls: 36.1%
Trump
100%
Polls: 58.1% +22%
100%



Swing

 
+2.4%
From 2016 Results
+2.9%
From 2016 Polls
 





Polls

 
36.1%
Biden
58.1%
Trump (+22%)
 

Date Pollster Rating Voters Sample Size Republican Democrat Diff Diff (Adj) Weight
10/27/20 10/22-10/22 University of New Orleans B/C LV 755 Trump
58.8
Biden
35.9
+22.9% +23.3% 0.97
10/26/20 9/28-10/25 SurveyMonkey D- LV 2,573 Trump
59
Biden
38
+21% +26% 0.13
10/26/20 9/28-10/25 SurveyMonkey D- RV 2,573 Trump
54
Biden
42
+12% +17% -
10/25/20 9/27-10/24 SurveyMonkey D- LV 2,553 Trump
59
Biden
38
+21% +26% 0.11
10/25/20 9/27-10/24 SurveyMonkey D- RV 2,553 Trump
55
Biden
42
+13% +18% -
10/24/20 9/25-10/23 SurveyMonkey D- LV 2,548 Trump
59
Biden
38
+21% +26% 0.09
10/24/20 9/25-10/23 SurveyMonkey D- RV 2,548 Trump
55
Biden
42
+13% +18% -
10/23/20 9/24-10/22 SurveyMonkey D- LV 2,534 Trump
59
Biden
39
+20% +25% 0.07
10/23/20 9/24-10/22 SurveyMonkey D- RV 2,534 Trump
54
Biden
43
+11% +16% -
10/22/20 9/23-10/21 SurveyMonkey D- LV 2,547 Trump
59
Biden
39
+20% +25% 0.05
10/22/20 9/23-10/21 SurveyMonkey D- RV 2,547 Trump
54
Biden
43
+11% +16% -
10/21/20 9/23-10/20 SurveyMonkey D- LV 2,517 Trump
59
Biden
39
+20% +25% -
10/21/20 9/23-10/20 SurveyMonkey D- RV 2,517 Trump
54
Biden
43
+11% +16% -
10/20/20 9/22-10/19 SurveyMonkey D- LV 2,466 Trump
58
Biden
40
+18% +23% -
10/20/20 9/22-10/19 SurveyMonkey D- RV 2,466 Trump
53
Biden
44
+9% +14% -
10/19/20 9/20-10/18 SurveyMonkey D- LV 2,445 Trump
58
Biden
40
+18% +23% -
10/19/20 9/20-10/18 SurveyMonkey D- RV 2,445 Trump
53
Biden
44
+9% +14% -
10/18/20 9/19-10/17 SurveyMonkey D- LV 2,425 Trump
58
Biden
40
+18% +23% -
10/18/20 9/19-10/17 SurveyMonkey D- RV 2,425 Trump
53
Biden
44
+9% +14% -
10/17/20 9/19-10/16 SurveyMonkey D- LV 2,413 Trump
58
Biden
40
+18% +23% -
10/17/20 9/19-10/16 SurveyMonkey D- RV 2,413 Trump
53
Biden
44
+9% +14% -
10/16/20 9/17-10/15 SurveyMonkey D- LV 2,370 Trump
57
Biden
40
+17% +22% -
10/16/20 9/17-10/15 SurveyMonkey D- RV 2,370 Trump
53
Biden
44
+9% +14% -
10/15/20 9/16-10/14 SurveyMonkey D- LV 2,325 Trump
58
Biden
40
+18% +23% -
10/15/20 9/16-10/14 SurveyMonkey D- RV 2,325 Trump
53
Biden
44
+9% +14% -
10/14/20 9/16-10/13 SurveyMonkey D- LV 2,284 Trump
58
Biden
40
+18% +23% -
10/14/20 9/16-10/13 SurveyMonkey D- RV 2,284 Trump
53
Biden
44
+9% +14% -
10/14/20 10/4-10/6 Trafalgar Group C- LV 1,048 Trump
54.1
Biden
35.9
+18.2% +17.2% 0.38
10/13/20 9/14-10/12 SurveyMonkey D- LV 2,286 Trump
58
Biden
40
+18% +23% -
10/13/20 9/14-10/12 SurveyMonkey D- RV 2,286 Trump
53
Biden
44
+9% +14% -
10/3/20 6/8-6/30 SurveyMonkey D- RV 1,134 Trump
54.1
Biden
41.5
+12.6% +17.6% -
10/3/20 6/8-6/30 SurveyMonkey D- LV 1,134 Trump
60.5
Biden
36.5
+24% +29% -
10/3/20 7/1-7/31 SurveyMonkey D- RV 2,998 Trump
54.6
Biden
42.8
+11.8% +16.8% -
10/3/20 7/1-7/31 SurveyMonkey D- LV 2,998 Trump
59.5
Biden
38.6
+20.9% +25.9% -
10/3/20 8/1-8/31 SurveyMonkey D- RV 2,587 Trump
55
Biden
41.5
+13.4% +18.4% -
10/3/20 8/1-8/31 SurveyMonkey D- LV 2,587 Trump
59
Biden
38
+21% +26% -
10/2/20 9/1-9/30 SurveyMonkey D- RV 2,475 Trump
55.7
Biden
42
+13.7% +18.7% -
10/2/20 9/1-9/30 SurveyMonkey D- LV 2,475 Trump
59.9
Biden
38.1
+21.8% +26.8% -
9/21/20 9/2-9/5 The Tyson Group B/C LV 600 Trump
48
Biden
42
+6% +6% 0.06
8/24/20 8/13-8/17 Trafalgar Group C- LV 1,002 Trump
54.3
Biden
37.9
+16.4% +15.4% -
8/19/20 8/6-8/12 ALG Research B/C LV 800 Trump
50
Biden
43
+7% +8.6% -


Past Results

Year Candidates Republican Democrat Diff
2016 Trump v Clinton 58.1 38.5 +19.6%
2012 Romney v Obama 57.8 40.6 +17.2%
2008 McCain v Obama 58.6 39.9 +18.6%
2004 Bush v Kerry 56.7 42.2 +14.5%
2000 Bush v Gore 52.6 44.9 +7.7%




Updates

Last Updated: 10/27 9:29 PM EDT
10/13
Louisiana polls jumped 2.6% toward Trump (was R+14.4%, now R+17%)
10/3
Louisiana polls jumped 7.4% toward Biden (was R+21.8%, now R+14.4%)
9/21
Louisiana polls jumped 4% toward Biden (was R+23%, now R+19%)