Louisiana

Live Election Night Forecast

Last Updated: 12/10 11:48 AM EST
Winner
Trump
Trump

Election Night Forecast Changes

Here you can see how the forecast has in Louisiana changed throughout the evening (and perhaps coming days?), all times are EST.




Louisiana Pre-Election Forecast

If Election Today more aggressive + 2016 Polling Error assumes same polling errors
Test Polling Swings see how a swing changes the model

Safe Trump

Win Probability

Biden
Trump
Biden
0%
Polls: 35.6%
Trump
100%
Polls: 59.9% +24.3%
100%



Swing

 
+4.7%
From 2016 Results
+5.2%
From 2016 Polls
 





Polls

 
35.6%
Biden
59.9%
Trump (+24.3%)
 

Date Pollster Rating Voters Sample Size Republican Democrat Diff Diff (Adj) Weight
11/2/20 10/23-11/1 Swayable D- LV 378 Trump
56.6		 Biden
39.1		 +17.5% +17.5% 0.49
11/2/20 10/20-11/1 SurveyMonkey D- LV 1,388 Trump
62		 Biden
35		 +27% +32% 0.25
11/2/20 10/20-11/1 SurveyMonkey D- RV 1,388 Trump
58		 Biden
39		 +19% +24% -
11/1/20 10/18-10/31 SurveyMonkey D- LV 1,533 Trump
62		 Biden
36		 +26% +31% 0.23
11/1/20 10/18-10/31 SurveyMonkey D- RV 1,533 Trump
58		 Biden
39		 +19% +24% -
10/31/20 10/17-10/30 SurveyMonkey D- LV 1,526 Trump
62		 Biden
36		 +26% +31% 0.2
10/31/20 10/17-10/30 SurveyMonkey D- RV 1,526 Trump
58		 Biden
39		 +19% +24% -
10/30/20 10/16-10/29 SurveyMonkey D- LV 1,512 Trump
61		 Biden
36		 +25% +30% 0.18
10/30/20 10/16-10/29 SurveyMonkey D- RV 1,512 Trump
57		 Biden
40		 +17% +22% -
10/29/20 10/1-10/28 SurveyMonkey D- LV 2,633 Trump
60		 Biden
38		 +22% +27% 0.06
10/29/20 10/1-10/28 SurveyMonkey D- RV 2,633 Trump
55		 Biden
41		 +14% +19% -
10/28/20 9/30-10/27 SurveyMonkey D- LV 2,569 Trump
59		 Biden
38		 +21% +26% -
10/28/20 9/30-10/27 SurveyMonkey D- RV 2,569 Trump
55		 Biden
42		 +13% +18% -
10/27/20 10/22-10/22 University of New Orleans B/C LV 755 Trump
58.8		 Biden
35.9		 +22.9% +23.3% 0.74
10/26/20 9/28-10/25 SurveyMonkey D- LV 2,573 Trump
59		 Biden
38		 +21% +26% -
10/26/20 9/28-10/25 SurveyMonkey D- RV 2,573 Trump
54		 Biden
42		 +12% +17% -
10/25/20 9/27-10/24 SurveyMonkey D- LV 2,553 Trump
59		 Biden
38		 +21% +26% -
10/25/20 9/27-10/24 SurveyMonkey D- RV 2,553 Trump
55		 Biden
42		 +13% +18% -
10/24/20 9/25-10/23 SurveyMonkey D- LV 2,548 Trump
59		 Biden
38		 +21% +26% -
10/24/20 9/25-10/23 SurveyMonkey D- RV 2,548 Trump
55		 Biden
42		 +13% +18% -
10/23/20 9/24-10/22 SurveyMonkey D- LV 2,534 Trump
59		 Biden
39		 +20% +25% -
10/23/20 9/24-10/22 SurveyMonkey D- RV 2,534 Trump
54		 Biden
43		 +11% +16% -
10/22/20 9/23-10/21 SurveyMonkey D- LV 2,547 Trump
59		 Biden
39		 +20% +25% -
10/22/20 9/23-10/21 SurveyMonkey D- RV 2,547 Trump
54		 Biden
43		 +11% +16% -
10/21/20 9/23-10/20 SurveyMonkey D- LV 2,517 Trump
59		 Biden
39		 +20% +25% -
10/21/20 9/23-10/20 SurveyMonkey D- RV 2,517 Trump
54		 Biden
43		 +11% +16% -
10/20/20 9/22-10/19 SurveyMonkey D- LV 2,466 Trump
58		 Biden
40		 +18% +23% -
10/20/20 9/22-10/19 SurveyMonkey D- RV 2,466 Trump
53		 Biden
44		 +9% +14% -
10/19/20 9/20-10/18 SurveyMonkey D- LV 2,445 Trump
58		 Biden
40		 +18% +23% -
10/19/20 9/20-10/18 SurveyMonkey D- RV 2,445 Trump
53		 Biden
44		 +9% +14% -
10/18/20 9/19-10/17 SurveyMonkey D- LV 2,425 Trump
58		 Biden
40		 +18% +23% -
10/18/20 9/19-10/17 SurveyMonkey D- RV 2,425 Trump
53		 Biden
44		 +9% +14% -
10/17/20 9/19-10/16 SurveyMonkey D- LV 2,413 Trump
58		 Biden
40		 +18% +23% -
10/17/20 9/19-10/16 SurveyMonkey D- RV 2,413 Trump
53		 Biden
44		 +9% +14% -
10/16/20 9/17-10/15 SurveyMonkey D- LV 2,370 Trump
57		 Biden
40		 +17% +22% -
10/16/20 9/17-10/15 SurveyMonkey D- RV 2,370 Trump
53		 Biden
44		 +9% +14% -
10/15/20 9/16-10/14 SurveyMonkey D- LV 2,325 Trump
58		 Biden
40		 +18% +23% -
10/15/20 9/16-10/14 SurveyMonkey D- RV 2,325 Trump
53		 Biden
44		 +9% +14% -
10/14/20 9/16-10/13 SurveyMonkey D- LV 2,284 Trump
58		 Biden
40		 +18% +23% -
10/14/20 9/16-10/13 SurveyMonkey D- RV 2,284 Trump
53		 Biden
44		 +9% +14% -
10/14/20 10/4-10/6 Trafalgar Group C- LV 1,048 Trump
54.1		 Biden
35.9		 +18.2% +17.2% 0.24
10/13/20 9/14-10/12 SurveyMonkey D- LV 2,286 Trump
58		 Biden
40		 +18% +23% -
10/13/20 9/14-10/12 SurveyMonkey D- RV 2,286 Trump
53		 Biden
44		 +9% +14% -
10/3/20 6/8-6/30 SurveyMonkey D- RV 1,134 Trump
54.1		 Biden
41.5		 +12.6% +17.6% -
10/3/20 6/8-6/30 SurveyMonkey D- LV 1,134 Trump
60.5		 Biden
36.5		 +24% +29% -
10/3/20 7/1-7/31 SurveyMonkey D- RV 2,998 Trump
54.6		 Biden
42.8		 +11.8% +16.8% -
10/3/20 7/1-7/31 SurveyMonkey D- LV 2,998 Trump
59.5		 Biden
38.6		 +20.9% +25.9% -
10/3/20 8/1-8/31 SurveyMonkey D- RV 2,587 Trump
55		 Biden
41.5		 +13.4% +18.4% -
10/3/20 8/1-8/31 SurveyMonkey D- LV 2,587 Trump
59		 Biden
38		 +21% +26% -
10/2/20 9/1-9/30 SurveyMonkey D- RV 2,475 Trump
55.7		 Biden
42		 +13.7% +18.7% -
10/2/20 9/1-9/30 SurveyMonkey D- LV 2,475 Trump
59.9		 Biden
38.1		 +21.8% +26.8% -
9/21/20 9/2-9/5 The Tyson Group B/C LV 600 Trump
48		 Biden
42		 +6% +6% -
8/24/20 8/13-8/17 Trafalgar Group C- LV 1,002 Trump
54.3		 Biden
37.9		 +16.4% +15.4% -
8/19/20 8/6-8/12 ALG Research B/C LV 800 Trump
50		 Biden
43		 +7% +8.6% -


Past Results

Year Candidates Republican Democrat Diff
2016 Trump v Clinton 58.1 38.5 +19.6%
2012 Romney v Obama 57.8 40.6 +17.2%
2008 McCain v Obama 58.6 39.9 +18.6%
2004 Bush v Kerry 56.7 42.2 +14.5%
2000 Bush v Gore 52.6 44.9 +7.7%




Updates

Last Updated: 11/3 2:19 AM EST
10/13
Louisiana polls jumped 2.6% toward Trump (was R+14.4%, now R+17%)
10/3
Louisiana polls jumped 7.4% toward Biden (was R+21.8%, now R+14.4%)
9/21
Louisiana polls jumped 4% toward Biden (was R+23%, now R+19%)