Maine

If Election Today more aggressive + 2016 Polling Error assumes same polling errors

Safe Biden

Win Probability

Biden
Trump
Biden
99%
Polls: 52.4% +13.3%
Trump
1%
Polls: 39.1%
99%
1%



Swing

 
+10.4%
From 2016 Results
+3.9%
From 2016 Polls
 



Testing

Standard Deviation: 2.725 Testing Range: +/- 6.32%




Tipping Point



0.3%
of the time





Polls

 
52.4%
Biden (+13.3%)
39.1%
Trump
 

Date Pollster Rating Voters Sample Size Republican Democrat Diff Diff (Adj) Weight
10/28/20 10/21-10/25 Colby College LV 879 Trump
38
Biden
51
+13% +13% 0.73
10/26/20 9/28-10/25 SurveyMonkey D- LV 1,749 Trump
42
Biden
56
+14% +9% 0.08
10/26/20 9/28-10/25 SurveyMonkey D- RV 1,749 Trump
42
Biden
56
+14% +9% -
10/25/20 9/26-10/24 SurveyMonkey D- LV 1,743 Trump
42
Biden
56
+14% +9% 0.06
10/25/20 9/26-10/24 SurveyMonkey D- RV 1,743 Trump
42
Biden
56
+14% +9% -
10/24/20 9/26-10/23 SurveyMonkey D- LV 1,779 Trump
42
Biden
56
+14% +9% -
10/24/20 9/26-10/23 SurveyMonkey D- RV 1,779 Trump
41
Biden
57
+16% +11% -
10/23/20 9/25-10/22 SurveyMonkey D- LV 1,709 Trump
43
Biden
56
+13% +8% -
10/23/20 9/25-10/22 SurveyMonkey D- RV 1,709 Trump
42
Biden
56
+14% +9% -
10/22/20 9/24-10/21 SurveyMonkey D- LV 1,649 Trump
43
Biden
56
+13% +8% -
10/22/20 9/24-10/21 SurveyMonkey D- RV 1,649 Trump
42
Biden
56
+14% +9% -
10/21/20 9/23-10/20 SurveyMonkey D- LV 1,501 Trump
43
Biden
56
+13% +8% -
10/21/20 9/23-10/20 SurveyMonkey D- RV 1,501 Trump
43
Biden
56
+13% +8% -
10/20/20 9/22-10/19 SurveyMonkey D- LV 1,430 Trump
43
Biden
56
+13% +8% -
10/20/20 9/22-10/19 SurveyMonkey D- RV 1,430 Trump
43
Biden
56
+13% +8% -
10/19/20 9/21-10/18 SurveyMonkey D- LV 1,389 Trump
43
Biden
56
+13% +8% -
10/19/20 9/21-10/18 SurveyMonkey D- RV 1,389 Trump
43
Biden
56
+13% +8% -
10/18/20 9/20-10/17 SurveyMonkey D- LV 1,365 Trump
43
Biden
56
+13% +8% -
10/18/20 9/20-10/17 SurveyMonkey D- RV 1,365 Trump
42
Biden
56
+14% +9% -
10/17/20 9/19-10/16 SurveyMonkey D- LV 1,321 Trump
42
Biden
56
+14% +9% -
10/17/20 9/19-10/16 SurveyMonkey D- RV 1,321 Trump
42
Biden
56
+14% +9% -
10/16/20 9/18-10/15 SurveyMonkey D- LV 1,239 Trump
42
Biden
57
+15% +10% -
10/16/20 9/18-10/15 SurveyMonkey D- RV 1,239 Trump
41
Biden
57
+16% +11% -
10/15/20 9/16-10/14 SurveyMonkey D- LV 1,172 Trump
42
Biden
57
+15% +10% -
10/15/20 9/16-10/14 SurveyMonkey D- RV 1,172 Trump
41
Biden
57
+16% +11% -
10/15/20 10/2-10/6 Pan Atlantic Research B/C LV 600 Trump
39.7
Biden
50.3
+10.6% +9.8% 0.43
10/14/20 9/16-10/13 SurveyMonkey D- LV 1,070 Trump
42
Biden
56
+14% +9% -
10/14/20 9/16-10/13 SurveyMonkey D- RV 1,070 Trump
42
Biden
56
+14% +9% -
10/13/20 9/14-10/12 SurveyMonkey D- LV 953 Trump
43
Biden
56
+13% +8% -
10/13/20 9/14-10/12 SurveyMonkey D- RV 953 Trump
43
Biden
56
+13% +8% -
10/6/20 9/25-10/4 Critical Insights C/D LV 466 Trump
40
Biden
51
+11% +11.2% 0.17
10/6/20 9/25-10/4 Critical Insights C/D RV 500 Trump
39
Biden
50
+11% +11.2% -
10/3/20 6/8-6/30 SurveyMonkey D- RV 202 Trump
48.2
Biden
48.8
+0.5% +4.5% -
10/3/20 6/8-6/30 SurveyMonkey D- LV 202 Trump
45.5
Biden
51.2
+5.7% +0.7% -
10/3/20 7/1-7/31 SurveyMonkey D- RV 733 Trump
42.9
Biden
55.6
+12.7% +7.7% -
10/3/20 7/1-7/31 SurveyMonkey D- LV 733 Trump
41.4
Biden
57.5
+16.1% +11.1% -
10/3/20 8/1-8/31 SurveyMonkey D- RV 502 Trump
39
Biden
59.6
+20.7% +15.7% -
10/3/20 8/1-8/31 SurveyMonkey D- LV 502 Trump
37
Biden
61
+24% +19% -
10/2/20 9/1-9/30 SurveyMonkey D- RV 729 Trump
40.4
Biden
57.6
+17.2% +12.2% -
10/2/20 9/1-9/30 SurveyMonkey D- LV 729 Trump
38.3
Biden
59.8
+21.5% +16.5% -
10/1/20 9/23-9/28 Data for Progress B- LV 718 Trump
41
Biden
55
+14% +14% 0.12
10/1/20 9/23-9/28 Data for Progress B- LV 718 Trump
39
Biden
53
+14% +14% 0.12
9/25/20 9/17-9/23 Colby College LV 847 Trump
39
Biden
50
+11% +11% -
9/21/20 9/17-9/20 Suffolk University A LV 500 Trump
39.2
Biden
51.4
+12.2% +11.6% 0.15
9/21/20 9/17-9/20 Suffolk University A LV 500 Trump
38.6
Biden
50.8
+12.2% +11.6% 0.15
9/18/20 9/11-9/16 Siena College/The New York Times Upshot A+ LV 663 Trump
38
Biden
55
+17% +17.4% 0.33
9/16/20 9/10-9/14 Quinnipiac University B+ LV 1,183 Trump
38
Biden
59
+21% +20.8% 0.21
9/10/20 8/30-9/5 Fabrizio Ward/Hart Research Associates LV 800 Trump
40
Biden
54
+14% +14% -
8/12/20 7/28-8/9 Critical Insights C/D LV 453 Trump
38
Biden
45
+7% +7.2% -
8/11/20 7/28-8/9 Critical Insights C/D RV 500 Trump
36
Biden
44
+8% +8.2% -
8/10/20 7/27-8/2 RMG Research B/C RV 500 Trump
39
Biden
50
+11% +11% -
8/6/20 7/30-8/3 Quinnipiac University B+ RV 807 Trump
37
Biden
52
+15% +14.8% 0.09
8/6/20 7/24-8/2 Data for Progress B- LV 866 Trump
43
Biden
53
+10% +10% -
8/6/20 7/24-8/2 Data for Progress B- LV 866 Trump
42
Biden
49
+7% +7% -
7/28/20 7/18-7/24 Colby College LV 888 Trump
38
Biden
50
+12% +12% -
7/28/20 7/23-7/24 Public Policy Polling B V 962 Trump
42
Biden
53
+11% +10.6% -
7/6/20 7/2-7/3 Public Policy Polling B V 1,022 Trump
42
Biden
53
+11% +10.6% -
3/5/20 3/2-3/3 Public Policy Polling B V 872 Trump
42
Biden
52
+10% +9.6% -
10/15/19 10/11-10/13 Public Policy Polling B V 939 Trump
42
Biden
54
+12% +11.6% -
9/17/19 7/29-7/31 Fabrizio Ward LLC B/C LV 600 Trump
44
Biden
50
+6% +5.8% -
6/28/19 6/24-6/24 Gravis Marketing C RV 767 Trump
46
Biden
54
+8% +7% -


Past Results

Year Candidates Republican Democrat Diff
2016 Trump v Clinton 44.9 47.8 +3%
2012 Romney v Obama 41 56.3 +15.3%
2008 McCain v Obama 40.4 57.7 +17.3%
2004 Bush v Kerry 44.6 53.6 +9%
2000 Bush v Gore 44 49.1 +5.1%




Updates

Last Updated: 10/28 9:48 AM EDT
10/1
Maine changed from Likely Biden to Safe Biden
9/29
Maine changed from Safe Biden to Likely Biden
9/16
Maine polls jumped 4.1% toward Biden (was D+10.2%, now D+14.3%)
Maine changed from Likely Biden to Safe Biden
8/6
Maine changed from Lean Biden to Likely Biden
8/3
Maine changed from Likely Biden to Lean Biden