Maine

Live Election Night Forecast

Last Updated: 12/10 11:48 AM EDT
Winner
Biden
Biden

Election Night Forecast Changes

Here you can see how the forecast has in Maine changed throughout the evening (and perhaps coming days?), all times are EST.




Maine Pre-Election Forecast

If Election Today more aggressive + 2016 Polling Error assumes same polling errors
Test Polling Swings see how a swing changes the model

Safe Biden

Win Probability

Biden
Trump
Biden
100%
Polls: 52.7% +11.6%
Trump
0%
Polls: 41.1%
100%



Swing

 
+8.7%
From 2016 Results
+2.2%
From 2016 Polls
 



Testing

Standard Deviation: 1.91 Testing Range: +/- 4.47%




Tipping Point



0.3%
of the time





Polls

 
52.7%
Biden (+11.6%)
41.1%
Trump
 

Date Pollster Rating Voters Sample Size Republican Democrat Diff Diff (Adj) Weight
11/2/20 10/29-11/2 Change Research C- LV 1,024 Trump
40		 Biden
52		 +12% +10.8% 0.98
11/2/20 10/20-11/1 SurveyMonkey D- LV 1,183 Trump
42		 Biden
56		 +14% +9% 0.23
11/2/20 10/20-11/1 SurveyMonkey D- RV 1,183 Trump
41		 Biden
56		 +15% +10% -
11/1/20 10/18-10/31 SurveyMonkey D- LV 1,242 Trump
42		 Biden
56		 +14% +9% 0.21
11/1/20 10/18-10/31 SurveyMonkey D- RV 1,242 Trump
41		 Biden
56		 +15% +10% -
11/1/20 10/29-10/31 Emerson College A- LV 611 Trump
42.9		 Biden
54.3		 +11.4% +11% 1.11
10/31/20 10/17-10/30 SurveyMonkey D- LV 1,248 Trump
43		 Biden
55		 +12% +7% 0.19
10/31/20 10/17-10/30 SurveyMonkey D- RV 1,248 Trump
42		 Biden
56		 +14% +9% -
10/30/20 10/16-10/29 SurveyMonkey D- LV 1,215 Trump
43		 Biden
55		 +12% +7% 0.16
10/30/20 10/16-10/29 SurveyMonkey D- RV 1,215 Trump
42		 Biden
56		 +14% +9% -
10/29/20 10/1-10/28 SurveyMonkey D- LV 1,995 Trump
43		 Biden
56		 +13% +8% -
10/29/20 10/1-10/28 SurveyMonkey D- RV 1,995 Trump
42		 Biden
56		 +14% +9% -
10/29/20 10/23-10/27 SurveyUSA A LV 1,007 Trump
40		 Biden
53		 +13% +12.8% 1
10/28/20 9/30-10/27 SurveyMonkey D- LV 1,916 Trump
43		 Biden
56		 +13% +8% -
10/28/20 9/30-10/27 SurveyMonkey D- RV 1,916 Trump
42		 Biden
56		 +14% +9% -
10/28/20 10/21-10/25 Colby College LV 879 Trump
38		 Biden
51		 +13% +13% 0.5
10/26/20 9/28-10/25 SurveyMonkey D- LV 1,749 Trump
42		 Biden
56		 +14% +9% -
10/26/20 9/28-10/25 SurveyMonkey D- RV 1,749 Trump
42		 Biden
56		 +14% +9% -
10/25/20 9/26-10/24 SurveyMonkey D- LV 1,743 Trump
42		 Biden
56		 +14% +9% -
10/25/20 9/26-10/24 SurveyMonkey D- RV 1,743 Trump
42		 Biden
56		 +14% +9% -
10/24/20 9/26-10/23 SurveyMonkey D- LV 1,779 Trump
42		 Biden
56		 +14% +9% -
10/24/20 9/26-10/23 SurveyMonkey D- RV 1,779 Trump
41		 Biden
57		 +16% +11% -
10/23/20 9/25-10/22 SurveyMonkey D- LV 1,709 Trump
43		 Biden
56		 +13% +8% -
10/23/20 9/25-10/22 SurveyMonkey D- RV 1,709 Trump
42		 Biden
56		 +14% +9% -
10/22/20 9/24-10/21 SurveyMonkey D- LV 1,649 Trump
43		 Biden
56		 +13% +8% -
10/22/20 9/24-10/21 SurveyMonkey D- RV 1,649 Trump
42		 Biden
56		 +14% +9% -
10/21/20 9/23-10/20 SurveyMonkey D- LV 1,501 Trump
43		 Biden
56		 +13% +8% -
10/21/20 9/23-10/20 SurveyMonkey D- RV 1,501 Trump
43		 Biden
56		 +13% +8% -
10/20/20 9/22-10/19 SurveyMonkey D- LV 1,430 Trump
43		 Biden
56		 +13% +8% -
10/20/20 9/22-10/19 SurveyMonkey D- RV 1,430 Trump
43		 Biden
56		 +13% +8% -
10/19/20 9/21-10/18 SurveyMonkey D- LV 1,389 Trump
43		 Biden
56		 +13% +8% -
10/19/20 9/21-10/18 SurveyMonkey D- RV 1,389 Trump
43		 Biden
56		 +13% +8% -
10/18/20 9/20-10/17 SurveyMonkey D- LV 1,365 Trump
43		 Biden
56		 +13% +8% -
10/18/20 9/20-10/17 SurveyMonkey D- RV 1,365 Trump
42		 Biden
56		 +14% +9% -
10/17/20 9/19-10/16 SurveyMonkey D- LV 1,321 Trump
42		 Biden
56		 +14% +9% -
10/17/20 9/19-10/16 SurveyMonkey D- RV 1,321 Trump
42		 Biden
56		 +14% +9% -
10/16/20 9/18-10/15 SurveyMonkey D- LV 1,239 Trump
42		 Biden
57		 +15% +10% -
10/16/20 9/18-10/15 SurveyMonkey D- RV 1,239 Trump
41		 Biden
57		 +16% +11% -
10/15/20 9/16-10/14 SurveyMonkey D- LV 1,172 Trump
42		 Biden
57		 +15% +10% -
10/15/20 9/16-10/14 SurveyMonkey D- RV 1,172 Trump
41		 Biden
57		 +16% +11% -
10/15/20 10/2-10/6 Pan Atlantic Research B/C LV 600 Trump
39.7		 Biden
50.3		 +10.6% +9.8% 0.3
10/14/20 9/16-10/13 SurveyMonkey D- LV 1,070 Trump
42		 Biden
56		 +14% +9% -
10/14/20 9/16-10/13 SurveyMonkey D- RV 1,070 Trump
42		 Biden
56		 +14% +9% -
10/13/20 9/14-10/12 SurveyMonkey D- LV 953 Trump
43		 Biden
56		 +13% +8% -
10/13/20 9/14-10/12 SurveyMonkey D- RV 953 Trump
43		 Biden
56		 +13% +8% -
10/6/20 9/25-10/4 Critical Insights C/D LV 466 Trump
40		 Biden
51		 +11% +11.2% -
10/6/20 9/25-10/4 Critical Insights C/D RV 500 Trump
39		 Biden
50		 +11% +11.2% -
10/3/20 6/8-6/30 SurveyMonkey D- RV 202 Trump
48.2		 Biden
48.8		 +0.5% +4.5% -
10/3/20 6/8-6/30 SurveyMonkey D- LV 202 Trump
45.5		 Biden
51.2		 +5.7% +0.7% -
10/3/20 7/1-7/31 SurveyMonkey D- RV 733 Trump
42.9		 Biden
55.6		 +12.7% +7.7% -
10/3/20 7/1-7/31 SurveyMonkey D- LV 733 Trump
41.4		 Biden
57.5		 +16.1% +11.1% -
10/3/20 8/1-8/31 SurveyMonkey D- RV 502 Trump
39		 Biden
59.6		 +20.7% +15.7% -
10/3/20 8/1-8/31 SurveyMonkey D- LV 502 Trump
37		 Biden
61		 +24% +19% -
10/2/20 9/1-9/30 SurveyMonkey D- RV 729 Trump
40.4		 Biden
57.6		 +17.2% +12.2% -
10/2/20 9/1-9/30 SurveyMonkey D- LV 729 Trump
38.3		 Biden
59.8		 +21.5% +16.5% -
10/1/20 9/23-9/28 Data for Progress B- LV 718 Trump
41		 Biden
55		 +14% +14% 0.06
10/1/20 9/23-9/28 Data for Progress B- LV 718 Trump
39		 Biden
53		 +14% +14% 0.06
9/25/20 9/17-9/23 Colby College LV 847 Trump
39		 Biden
50		 +11% +11% -
9/21/20 9/17-9/20 Suffolk University A LV 500 Trump
39.2		 Biden
51.4		 +12.2% +11.6% 0.09
9/21/20 9/17-9/20 Suffolk University A LV 500 Trump
38.6		 Biden
50.8		 +12.2% +11.6% 0.09
9/18/20 9/11-9/16 Siena College/The New York Times Upshot A+ LV 663 Trump
38		 Biden
55		 +17% +17.4% 0.27
9/16/20 9/10-9/14 Quinnipiac University B+ LV 1,183 Trump
38		 Biden
59		 +21% +20.8% 0.13
9/10/20 8/30-9/5 Fabrizio Ward/Hart Research Associates LV 800 Trump
40		 Biden
54		 +14% +14% -
8/12/20 7/28-8/9 Critical Insights C/D LV 453 Trump
38		 Biden
45		 +7% +7.2% -
8/11/20 7/28-8/9 Critical Insights C/D RV 500 Trump
36		 Biden
44		 +8% +8.2% -
8/10/20 7/27-8/2 RMG Research B/C RV 500 Trump
39		 Biden
50		 +11% +11% -
8/6/20 7/30-8/3 Quinnipiac University B+ RV 807 Trump
37		 Biden
52		 +15% +14.8% -
8/6/20 7/24-8/2 Data for Progress B- LV 866 Trump
43		 Biden
53		 +10% +10% -
8/6/20 7/24-8/2 Data for Progress B- LV 866 Trump
42		 Biden
49		 +7% +7% -
7/28/20 7/18-7/24 Colby College LV 888 Trump
38		 Biden
50		 +12% +12% -
7/28/20 7/23-7/24 Public Policy Polling B V 962 Trump
42		 Biden
53		 +11% +10.6% -
7/6/20 7/2-7/3 Public Policy Polling B V 1,022 Trump
42		 Biden
53		 +11% +10.6% -
3/5/20 3/2-3/3 Public Policy Polling B V 872 Trump
42		 Biden
52		 +10% +9.6% -
10/15/19 10/11-10/13 Public Policy Polling B V 939 Trump
42		 Biden
54		 +12% +11.6% -
9/17/19 7/29-7/31 Fabrizio Ward LLC B/C LV 600 Trump
44		 Biden
50		 +6% +5.8% -
6/28/19 6/24-6/24 Gravis Marketing C RV 767 Trump
46		 Biden
54		 +8% +7% -


Past Results

Year Candidates Republican Democrat Diff
2016 Trump v Clinton 44.9 47.8 +3%
2012 Romney v Obama 41 56.3 +15.3%
2008 McCain v Obama 40.4 57.7 +17.3%
2004 Bush v Kerry 44.6 53.6 +9%
2000 Bush v Gore 44 49.1 +5.1%




Updates

Last Updated: 11/3 2:37 AM EDT
10/1
Maine changed from Likely Biden to Safe Biden
9/29
Maine changed from Safe Biden to Likely Biden
9/16
Maine polls jumped 4.1% toward Biden (was D+10.2%, now D+14.3%)
Maine changed from Likely Biden to Safe Biden
8/6
Maine changed from Lean Biden to Likely Biden
8/3
Maine changed from Likely Biden to Lean Biden